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Vision for a Renewable Scotland:Are We All Better Together? | Iain Staffell
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Vision for a Renewable Scotland: Are We All Better Together? | Iain Staffell

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  • Swap gas and nuke around… make nuke lighter!
  • Transcript

    • 1. Dr Iain Staffell ICARB Energy Backcasting Workshop, Edinburgh © Imperial College Business School Vision for a Renewable Scotland: Are We All Better Together? 12th March 2014
    • 2. 2 Wind
    • 3. 3 Wind Capacity • 10 GW currently on the system • 10 GW with approval • 30 GW of ‘super’ offshore in planning • In 2020: – 10 GW in Scotland – 13 GW in England & Wales
    • 4. 4 Wind Capacity • 10 GW currently on the system • 10 GW with approval • 30 GW of ‘super’ offshore in planning • In 2030: – 20 GW in Scotland – 30 GW in England & Wales
    • 5. • First three weeks of January 2020 • Demand in Britain • Net of 23 GW wind 5 Demand Net of Renewables 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan Wind Net (GW)
    • 6. • First three weeks of January 2020 • Demand in Scotland • Net of 10 GW wind 6 Demand Net of Renewables -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan Wind Net (GW)
    • 7. 7 Geographic Diversity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1-Jan 5-Jan 9-Jan 13-Jan UK
    • 8. 8 Geographic Diversity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1-Jan 5-Jan 9-Jan 13-Jan UK Ireland
    • 9. 9 Geographic Diversity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1-Jan 5-Jan 9-Jan 13-Jan UK Ireland France Avg
    • 10. 10 Geographic Diversity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1-Jan 5-Jan 9-Jan 13-Jan UK Ireland France Germany Avg
    • 11. 11 Geographic Diversity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1-Jan 5-Jan 9-Jan 13-Jan UK Ireland France Germany Norway Avg
    • 12. 12 Split Markets
    • 13. • Separate English & Scottish markets from 1990 • They became BETTA in 2005 • UK generation mix in 2013: 13 Setting the Scene Coal Gas OCGT Hydro Wind Solar Sc: E&W: (14 GW) (76 GW)(90 GW) Source: Platts WEPP Nuclear
    • 14. • Would get different wholesale electricity prices in England and Scotland • Prices might to be lower in Scotland • Prices might be more volatile in Scotland • Together, these might reduce the amount of capacity built in Scotland 14 What Might It Mean?
    • 15. • Supply curve for Great Britain: 15 What Might It Mean? Wind Nuclear Coal Gas CCGT Gas OCGT £0 £10 £20 £30 £40 £50 £60 £70 £80 0 20 40 60 80 MarginalCost(£/MWh) Available Capacity (GW)
    • 16. • Supply curves for Scotland, England & Wales 16 What Might It Mean? £0 £10 £20 £30 £40 £50 £60 £70 £80 0 10 MarginalCost(£/MWh) Wind Nuclear Coal Gas CCGT Gas OCGT 0 20 40 60 Available Capacity (GW)
    • 17. £0 £10 £20 £30 £40 £50 £60 £70 £80 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 GB E&W SC – Simulating 2013 gets us close to historic prices (£53/MWh) – Simulating 2020 suggests prices are 36% higher (£73/MWh) • Mix of fuel prices (20% rise) and carbon price (350% rise) 17 Wholesale Electricity Prices (£/MWh) £0 £10 £20 £30 £40 £50 £60 £70 £80 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 GB E&W SC Source: APX Historic Prices
    • 18. 18 Wholesale Electricity Prices (£/MWh) £0 £10 £20 £30 £40 £50 £60 £70 £80 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 GB E&W SC Source: APX Historic Prices – English & Welsh prices rise by £2 per MWh. – Market splitting would reduce Scottish wholesale prices by £12 per MWh. (£73 –> £61)
    • 19. • Around 60% of residential bill is due to wholesale price, assume other elements stay constant. • Residential prices in 2020: – 18.7 p/kWh in GB – 19.0 p/kWh in England – 16.9 p/kWh in Scotland • Average Scottish household bill falls by £51 per year – 10% reduction – Fuel poor households may spend 0.5–1% less of their income on energy 19 Consumer Electricity Prices Source: The Scottish Government – Fuel Poverty Evidence Review
    • 20. 20 New Technologies
    • 21. 21 2000 ~ 2015 ~ 2030 2000 2014 2030 Wind………… 400 MW 17 GW 25 x 17 x 10 GW 300 GW 50–70 GW? Solar 5 MW 1.4 GW 500x 70x 2.7 GW 100 GW 10–50 GW? Marine 500 kW 250 MW 18x 2x 9 MW 500 MW 1–5 GW Grid Scale Batteries <1 MW? 100s of MW ? ? ? UK: World: