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Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine
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Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine

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  • 1. Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LA Telephone +44 (0)131 650 0270 www.sccs.org.uk Scotland centred energy 2030 Building a vision for Scotland’s energy future 12 March 2014, ECCI Stuart HASZELDINE University of Edinburgh
  • 2. 2 Storyline Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Context -42% carbon by 2020 - 60% by 2030 - 90% carbon by 2050 (ref 1990 base) • All regions make extensive use of their regional renewables potential • Electricity is exchanged through the country • Pumped storage is exploited • Electricity import – minimal • Electricity export - encouraged
  • 3. 3 Climate and unburnable carbon Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 “Cumulative total emissions of CO2 and global mean surface temperature response are approximately linearly related” IPCC 2013 AR5 WG1 now Emission reduction 2050 limit for 2 C 50% confidence No action 2100 limit for > 8 C 50% confidence Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk TOTAL emissions of fossil carbon have to be contained Not just the rate of emission : CCS, RES, Efficiency buy time Industry needs CCS. Unburnable carbon V hydrocarbon production
  • 4. 4Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk http://www.sccs.org.uk/news/2013/IndustrialCO nd.pdf NOT just electricity Energy USE Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED Scotland is a hydrocarbon use economy 10 Mt CO2 “saved by Res electricity” 2012 (simple calc. ) 10
  • 5. 5 Scotland extracts hydrocarbons Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk NOT just electricity Energy USE Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8 Energy Study 2006 TWhr Wind 2012 15 TWhr 37 TWhr total Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006
  • 6. 6 Scotland energy use = electric + heat Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/20 06/01/19092748/8 TOTAL energy use = electric + heat + transport + industry + …. 166 TWHr / yr 2006
  • 7. 7 Vision : energy demand Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Other carbon emissions Heat 2014 demand 2030 demand Heat Power Power Industry Travel Industry Land 20% Planes & ships Renewables and CCS CCS ONLY Travel Efficiency, gas, electric
  • 8. 8 Vision : energy supply 2030 Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk 2030 Wind – onshore 20 TW hr (+ 20 TWhr offshore) (Tide 2 TWhr /yr) (Wave 1 TWhr / yr) Gas + (coal ?) biomass + CCS Petrochemical + CCS Insulation & efficiency Traded sector ? Imports W W WW Iceland ? England ? Europe ? Norway ? Denmark ? Scotland CCS CCS CCS Demand 2006 165 TW hr / yr Demand 2009 143 TWhr /yr Demand 2030 150 – 200 TW hr/yr F F F I FF Oil & gas CO2-EOR CO2 Price power, heat Build rates Transmission charges W W Close coal & gas genrn ? Close North Sea extract ? Industry + CCS ? Wind + Tide Forestry Industry CCS on fossil
  • 9. 9 Discussion Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Electricity and All-Energy supply In a world of rapid Climate change Slow industry and finance change and unburnable carbon
  • 10. 10Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
  • 11. 11 Discussion Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Electricity and All-Energy supply In a world of rapid Climate change Slow industry and finance change and unburnable carbon
  • 12. s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk BP Energy Outlook 2014 12 = DO Sustainable Developing economies BRIC, MINT “ us “ Carbon not planning to decrease
  • 13. 13 Scotland is a hydrocarbon economy Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk NOT just electricity Energy USE Energy produced and EXPORTED http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8 Energy Study 2006 TWhr Wind 2012 15 TWhr 37 TWhr total Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006
  • 14. s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk 14 www.sccs.org 90% CO2 reduction on site 75% along whole chain What does CCS look like ? expensive uncertain FINANCE
  • 15. s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 15 Depth 1 - 4 km Impermeable SEAL Overlies Porous RESERVOIR CO2 storage is a long way down
  • 16. 16 STATE of CCS – REAL new projects Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Zero Emission Power (Europe trade organisation) 12 full sized projects by 2012 EEPR 1 Billion x 6 projects IEA International Energy Agency 100 projects by 2020 Power AND Industry = Two (0) by 2020 = ZERO (1) = ONE (3) UK (small, EU edge) 2005, 2007, 2012 CO2 inject 2019£ 1 Bn Prize
  • 17. 17 Does UK Govt WANT CCS ?? Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk “low cost” = high nuclear 2050 Calculator Carbon and energy : default example Ll llll n “carbon and bio ” = high fossil and carbon capture
  • 18. 18 Scottish fossil energy extraction Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Conventional Oil + gas 2014 - 2050 CO2 –EOR 2020 – 2035 Shale oil 2020 – 2035 Shale gas 2020 – 2060 Underground coal gas 2020 - 2200
  • 19. 19 Making it happen Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk PROBLEM Tax N Sea ≠ Spend on CCS SOLUTION • Divert oil tax to green energy • Extraction tax, to incentivise storage of carbon Oil, coal, shale tax “roads, hospitals and schools” Green clean 2 x CCS project now future ?
  • 20. 20 Avoiding a carbon bubble 1 tonne CO2 out = 1 tonne CO2 in Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk More fossil carbon extraction, faster ≠ Mitigation later ….
  • 21. 21 INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk • 2000 – 4,000 DIRECT jobs in Scottish industry, 250,000 offshore 10,000 in Renewables • Industry process emissions can not be displaced – must be captured • Should h/c resource be left in the ground ? Very unlikely to change an EU / UK oil/gas price • Scotland has lots of oil. And coal, shale oil, shale gas • Developing CCS requires synergy – to build pipes and storage
  • 22. 22 INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Keeping C intensive industry – needs CO2 cleanup
  • 23. 23 Creating a low carbon industry zone Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
  • 24. 24 Renewables are good But not large enough – heroic effort possible Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
  • 25. 25 All electricity – by fuel Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk
  • 26. 26 Summary Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk • Electricity is a small part of energy. Include HEAT, INDUSTRY • Is carbon, or money more dominant ? • Security of supply – renewables PLUS storage, or INFILL • Economics of transmission charging – Scotland centric • Mixed generation – windpower on best sites - balancing carbon extraction  Trees for fuel - baseload flexible generation – with CCS - • Aim beyond 2030 – to 2050, …… 3,100 AD

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