Forest in Scotland’s climate change targets | Wendy Aubrey

Forest in Scotland’s climate change targets 1. What are the targets? 2. What are the trends? 3. Will Scotland meet the targets? Wendy Aubrey Technical development manager Bioclimate Research & Development 18b Liberton Brae Edinburgh UK EH16 6AE Tel: +44 (0)131 664 370028/09/2011

Climate change targets UK target is to reduce CO2 emissions by: 80% by 2050 Annual savings by 2010 Forestry sector annual savings in MtC: •Scottish Share: 1.7 MtC •0.6 million tC by 2010 of the 2.7 MtC •Target: 2.7 MtC •0.8 million tC by 2015 •1.0 million tC by 2020 Increase woodland cover •17% in 2009 (1,334,000 ha) to 25% by 2050 (1,984,000 ha) •650,000 ha of new woodland by 2050 Annual tCO2 removals by land converted to woodland since 1990 •0.7 MtCO2 by 2020 •4.4 MtCO2 by 205028/09/2011 SE, 2002 & CCSG, 2009

LULUCF inventory emissions and removalsMillions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by category for Scotland Scotland removes more CO2e than it emits CO2e includes CO2 (GWP 1), CH4 (GWP 21), and N2O (GWP 310) Trends 28/09/2011 CEH, 2009

Climate change progress indicatorsIndicator Last Value assessedArea of new planting 2005/06 3996 ha 2006/07 6594 ha Increasing 2007/08 4186 ha 2008/09 3440 ha 2009/10 2717 ha 2010/11 5100 haAnnual net carbon sequestration by land 2006 0.36 MtCO2 2007 0.40 MtCO2converted to woodland since 1990 2008 0.42 MtCO2 Increasing 2009 0.43 Mt CO2 2010 0.45 Mt CO2 2011Installed capacity of wood energy plant 2006 58 MWth 0 MWe 2007 67 MWth 44 MWe(megawatt thermal and electrical: 2009 and 2008 64 MWth 44 MWe2010 figures have been adjusted in line with 2009 180 MWth 64 MWeSG reporting on renewable heat capacity for 2010 325 MWth 75 MWebiomass.) IncreasingNumber of non-domestic, wood fuelled 2006 49 2007 91energy systems installed 2008 154 Increasing 2009 170 2010 217Area of short rotation coppice grant aided 2005/06 34 ha 2006/07 162 ha(Scottish Forestry Grant Scheme and Rural 2007/08 487 haDevelopment Contracts). 28/09/2011 Decreasing 2008/09 10 ha SFS, 2011 2009/10 0 ha

Areas of new planting in Scotland28/09/2011 CEH, 2009

New areas of planting in Scotland Annual 18.0 16.0 Target 16 thousand ha/yrAnnual area of new planting 14.0 12.0 (1000s of ha) 10.0 Actual new planting Target new planting 8.0 Projection new planting 6.0 4.0 Projection 2.0 4 thousand ha/yr 0.0 Meeting targets?28/09/2011 FC statistics

New areas of planting in Scotland Cumulative 900 6 Actual cumulative 800 planting Projection/Target 5 700 Annual MtCO2 sequestration 27% of the MtCO2/yr target Target cumulativeCummulative area of new planting 600 4 planting (thousands of ha) 500 Projected cumulative 3 planting 400 Target 827 thousand ha 4.8 MtCO2/yr Actual annual 300 2 MtCO2 200 sequestration Projection 1 Target annual MtCO2 100 349 thousand ha sequestration 1.3 MtCO2/yr 0 0 Projected annual MtCO2 sequestration Meeting targets? 28/09/2011 FC statistics

Forest land in Scotland Annual GHG removals HIGH emission 0 thousand ha/yrMtCO2/yr MID emission 4 thousand ha/yr LOW emission 14.6 thousand ha/yr What scenario have we been following?28/09/2011 MID to HIGH CEH, 2011 using CFLOW model

Forest area – planting and removal Forest thousands of ha 2000 forest 1318 2010 forest 1343 Increase in forest (2000 to 2010) 25 New planting (2000 to 2010) 60 Difference (2000 to 2010) Increase in forest (2000 to 2010) minus new planting (2000 to 2010) 35 Removal for windfarms (2000 to 2010) 10 to 20 1600 1400 Woodland area (thousands of ha) 1200 1000 Woodland area 800 Actual cumulative planting 600 400 Difference (Woodland area minus new planting area) 200 0 Without areas of new planting, would forest area be decreasing?28/09/2011 FC statistics, FC MAY 2011

ReferencesCEH, 2009. Inventory and projections of UK emissions by sources and removals by sinks due to land use,land use change and forestry. Annual report. CEH, DEFRA, 2009.CEH, 2011. Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gases from Land Use, Land Use Change andForestry (LULUCF) for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: 1990-2009. Amanda M. Thomson,Stephen Hallsworth and Heath Malcolm, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. April 2011.CCSG, 2009. Combating Climate Change: A Role for UK Forests. National Assessment of UK Forestryand Climate Change Steering Group, 2009.FC Statistics. Forestry statistics. Economics and Statistics Unit, Forestry Commission. NationalStatistics, 2001 to 2010. http://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestry/infd-7aqdgcFC, JUN 2011. Woodland Area, Planting and Restocking. Forestry Commission, June 2011.FC, MAY 2011. National Forest Inventory Woodland Area Statistics: Scotland, May 2011.FCS, 2009. The Scottish government’s rationale for woodland expansion. Forestry commission Scotland,2009.SE, 2006. The Scottish Forestry Strategy. Scottish Executive, 2006.SFS, 2011. The Scottish Forestry Strategy: 2011-2014 Implementation Plan & 2010-2011 ProgressReport. Progress indicators, climate change. 28/09/2011

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