Missing the target?  To what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in expected carbon reductions? Angela Druckm...
Progress towards a low carbon society? <ul><li>UK Government is relying on households to be key actors in achieving its GH...
Illustration of rebound effects Lower  running  costs Driver further or more often Lower  petrol bills  Holiday in Spain F...
Rebound effect studies <ul><li>To what extent is the rebound effect a problem? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How can it be minimis...
Abatement actions study <ul><li>Household:  reduce thermostat by 1 o C;  </li></ul><ul><li>Food:  reduce food waste;  </li...
Abatement action study Action £ Expenditure avoided Re-use £ Re-spend Bank/Invest Expected GHG reduction Δ H GHGs due to r...
Re-use of avoided expenditure <ul><li>‘ Behaviour as usual’ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>according to income elasticities; </li><...
Underlying models <ul><li>SELMA Surrey Environmental Lifestyle Mapping Framework  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GHG intensities of...
Limitations <ul><li>Assume no economy-wide price effects. </li></ul><ul><li>UK average household; </li></ul><ul><li>16 exp...
UK estimated average household expenditures and GHGs in 2008
Estimated average annual UK household expenditure and savings
Estimated average annual UK household GHG emissions
GHG intensities
Results of study
Rebound effect for different actions: ‘ Behaviour as usual ’
All 3 actions with varying assumptions concerning re-spend Green investment
Energy efficiency study <ul><li>Additional parameters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Embodied energy  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ca...
Energy Efficiency Study Results Source: Chitnis, Sorrell, Firth, Druckman and Jackson (forthcoming) * Assumes behaviour as...
.... Our next study: <ul><li>Variation of rebound across income groups </li></ul>
Policy implications <ul><li>Rebound is not negligible. Policy-makers need to take it into account. </li></ul><ul><li>Shift...
References <ul><li>Druckman, A., M. Chitnis, S. Sorrell and T. Jackson (2011). &quot;Missing carbon reductions? Exploring ...
Missing the target?  To what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in expected carbon reductions? Angela Druckm...
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Angela Druckman | Missing the target: To What Extent Does the Rebound Effect Cause a Shortfall in Expected Carbon Reductions

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Presented at the 4th International Conference on Carbon Accounting
25th November 2011
www.icarb.org

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  • Acknowledgements This study is slightly different to the one described in the Working Paper. Energy and carbon prices are too low Policies too small-scale, under-funded, poorly designed ineffectual. … something else going on also?
  • Jevons paradox
  • Abatement actions No capital expenditure Achieved thru behavioural changes Actions drawn from government sponsored websites. ActOnCO2: “ Turning your thermostat down by 1ºC could reduce CO 2 emissions &amp; cut your fuel bills by up to 10% WRAP 2008 “ we throw away a third of the food we buy “ simple approximation: reduced expenditure on food by 1/3 ActOnCO2: for car journeys are under two miles, walking or cycling is often a practical alternative to driving.” “ As nearly a quarter of all car journeys are under two miles, walking or cycling is often a practical alternative to driving.” http://www.bradfordschools.net/hotpot/Unit%208.1/thermostat.gif http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ERdyIv8jDWY/SyEfvKrTSlI/AAAAAAAAGyQ/NDfXoOvojiI/s400/0511-0809-0702-2841_Dad_Grocery_Shopping_Clip_Art_clipart_image.png http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://images.clipartof.com/small/5605-Happy-Man-Wearing-A-Safety-Helmet-While-Riding-A-Bicycle-Clipart-Illustration.jpg&amp;imgrefurl=http://www.clipartof.com/details/clipart/5605.html&amp;usg=__IcxPmOJcIMb2_q61Isame4xNtVg=&amp;h=450&amp;w=431&amp;sz=63&amp;hl=en&amp;start=17&amp;zoom=1&amp;itbs=1&amp;tbnid=JD1RwgrORnY4RM:&amp;tbnh=127&amp;tbnw=122&amp;prev=/images%3Fq%3Dbicycle%2Bclip%2Bart%26hl%3Den%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1
  • Household action example:   Install loft insulation Avoids expenditure on heating fuels Rebound 20% means only 80% expected GHG reductions achieved in reality. Rebound over 100% Energy efficiency actions “BACKFIRE” Increase overall energy consumption
  • ‘ Least worst’ rebound in least GHG intensive category Household = household maintenance &amp; water supply Worst case rebound in most GHG intensive category Gas Savings Current ~4% disposable income saved Last decade ~4-9% All avoided expenditure put into savings Chinese rate ~40% -ve rate: households going into debt http://lastarial.files.wordpress.com/2006/09/money_men.jpg
  • Exogenous Non-Economic Factors - EXNEF: The stochastic underlying trends Captures technical progress, socio-demographic and geographic factors, changes in tastes, lifestyles values, In other words: total non-price and non-income effects
  • UK average household; Only talking about ‘ Indirect’ Rebound Effect here ie expenditure on a different ’ service than the action Direct not relevant to this study Direct: demand for service down; price down; people consume more. Generally would lead to higher rebound this study conservative Aviation – part of Other Transport in this study
  • Gas ~ 1% of total expenditure Saving ~ 4%
  • Other transport inc personal aviation
  • Yellow ΔH = Hoped for GHG reductions Red ΔG = GHGs due to re-use of avoided expenditure Rebound is ratio ΔG / ΔH Graph shows rebound for each action separately then combined for ‘Behaviour as usual’ ie Re-spend according to income elasticities Lowest gas Food: Highest rebound action in relatively low intensive category Expect re-spend in higher intensity categories So high rebound
  • Best &amp; worst case depend on disaggregation Higher disaggregation isolate extremely low intensive expenditure category eg Fine art? very low rebound Green Investment? Choose investments with extremely low carbon intensity rebound might approach zero If money, in future, invested in “ negative” carbon technology then investment might have negative emissions, Eg Carbon trees: ‘suck’ CO2 from atmosphere So positive rebound is in theory possible .
  • http://www.halfthedeck.com/images/112backfire.jpg http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.patentspostgrant.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Gun-Backfire.gif&amp;imgrefurl=http://www.patentspostgrant.com/lang/en/2010/06/patent-owner-requested-ex-parte-reexamination-boomerangs-in-ex-parte-yasukochi-et-al&amp;usg=__1te3K3qUxKCan4YlS1e-LJ80Nv8=&amp;h=337&amp;w=420&amp;sz=53&amp;hl=en&amp;start=1&amp;tbnid=jkDnZg6gHXh7_M:&amp;tbnh=100&amp;tbnw=125&amp;prev=/images%3Fq%3Dbackfire%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG%26biw%3D761%26bih%3D609%26gbv%3D2%26as_st%3Dy%26tbs%3Disch:1,itp:photo&amp;itbs=1
  • http://www.halfthedeck.com/images/112backfire.jpg http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.patentspostgrant.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Gun-Backfire.gif&amp;imgrefurl=http://www.patentspostgrant.com/lang/en/2010/06/patent-owner-requested-ex-parte-reexamination-boomerangs-in-ex-parte-yasukochi-et-al&amp;usg=__1te3K3qUxKCan4YlS1e-LJ80Nv8=&amp;h=337&amp;w=420&amp;sz=53&amp;hl=en&amp;start=1&amp;tbnid=jkDnZg6gHXh7_M:&amp;tbnh=100&amp;tbnw=125&amp;prev=/images%3Fq%3Dbackfire%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG%26biw%3D761%26bih%3D609%26gbv%3D2%26as_st%3Dy%26tbs%3Disch:1,itp:photo&amp;itbs=1
  • Conclusion: It’s imperative that policy-makers take account of the rebound effect when estimating GHG emissions reductions achievable through encouraging household behaviour change. If they do not, &amp; don’t take steps to reduce rebound, achieving targets to reduce carbon emissions will be even more of a Sisyphean task than it already seems. The mission of the Green Bank of Kentucky is to promote energy efficiency in state buildings through competition for low interest loans to reduce operating costs, energy use, protect the environment, save taxpayer dollars, promote economic development, and create new “green collar” jobs by means of education, engineering analyses and building improvements.
  • Angela Druckman | Missing the target: To What Extent Does the Rebound Effect Cause a Shortfall in Expected Carbon Reductions

    1. 1. Missing the target? To what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in expected carbon reductions? Angela Druckman, Mona Chitnis, Steve Sorrell and Tim Jackson 4th International Conference on Carbon Accounting Edinburgh Conference Center 25th November 2011
    2. 2. Progress towards a low carbon society? <ul><li>UK Government is relying on households to be key actors in achieving its GHG emissions reduction targets; </li></ul><ul><li>Consumption emissions generally rising; </li></ul><ul><li>Why? Lack of effective policies? ........ or a systemic problem? </li></ul>
    3. 3. Illustration of rebound effects Lower running costs Driver further or more often Lower petrol bills Holiday in Spain Fuel efficient - less energy More energy More energy Direct Indirect Embodied energy
    4. 4. Rebound effect studies <ul><li>To what extent is the rebound effect a problem? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How can it be minimised? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Energy v. CO 2 v. GHG emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Two studies: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Abatement actions – lead to indirect rebound effect only; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy efficiency actions – lead to direct and indirect rebound effects. </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Abatement actions study <ul><li>Household: reduce thermostat by 1 o C; </li></ul><ul><li>Food: reduce food waste; </li></ul><ul><li>Transport : replace car journeys <2miles by walking/cycling. </li></ul>
    6. 6. Abatement action study Action £ Expenditure avoided Re-use £ Re-spend Bank/Invest Expected GHG reduction Δ H GHGs due to re-use Δ G Rebound = If Δ G > Δ H; Rebound > 100%; Backfire
    7. 7. Re-use of avoided expenditure <ul><li>‘ Behaviour as usual’ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>according to income elasticities; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>‘ Least worst’ rebound </li></ul><ul><ul><li>in least GHG intensive category; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Worst case rebound </li></ul><ul><ul><li>in most GHG intensive category; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Effect of changing savings? </li></ul>
    8. 8. Underlying models <ul><li>SELMA Surrey Environmental Lifestyle Mapping Framework </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GHG intensities of UK household consumption and savings (1992-2004); </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quasi-Multi-Regional Environmentally-Extended Input-Output model. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>ELESA Econometric Lifestyle Environmental Scenario Analysis model </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Income elasticities; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Exogenous Non-Economic Factors (ExNEF) (total non-price and non-income effects). </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Limitations <ul><li>Assume no economy-wide price effects. </li></ul><ul><li>UK average household; </li></ul><ul><li>16 expenditure categories. </li></ul>£££
    10. 10. UK estimated average household expenditures and GHGs in 2008
    11. 11. Estimated average annual UK household expenditure and savings
    12. 12. Estimated average annual UK household GHG emissions
    13. 13. GHG intensities
    14. 14. Results of study
    15. 15. Rebound effect for different actions: ‘ Behaviour as usual ’
    16. 16. All 3 actions with varying assumptions concerning re-spend Green investment
    17. 17. Energy efficiency study <ul><li>Additional parameters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Embodied energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Capital expenditure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Subsidized/unsubsidized </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>From loan or savings </li></ul></ul></ul>Collaboration with Steven Firth, Loughborough University
    18. 18. Energy Efficiency Study Results Source: Chitnis, Sorrell, Firth, Druckman and Jackson (forthcoming) * Assumes behaviour as usual   Measure Rebound *   Minimum Maximum 1 Cavity wall insulation 3 9 2 Loft insulation professional to 270 mm -21 26 3 Condensing boiler 7 7 4 Tank insulation 6 8 5 CFL 9 12 6 LED -14 8 7 1,2,3,4, 5 in combination 3 10 8 1,2,3,4, 6 in combination 1 10 9 Solar thermal -302 28 10 Diesel efficient car 40 40
    19. 19. .... Our next study: <ul><li>Variation of rebound across income groups </li></ul>
    20. 20. Policy implications <ul><li>Rebound is not negligible. Policy-makers need to take it into account. </li></ul><ul><li>Shift patterns of expenditure to lower GHG intensive goods and services; </li></ul><ul><li>Encourage ‘green’ investment’. </li></ul>
    21. 21. References <ul><li>Druckman, A., M. Chitnis, S. Sorrell and T. Jackson (2011). &quot;Missing carbon reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households &quot; Energy Policy 39: 3572–3581. </li></ul><ul><li>Sorrell, S. (2007). The rebound effect: an assessment of the evidence for economy-wide energy savings from improved energy efficiency. London, UK, UKERC. </li></ul><ul><li>........ watch this space …… </li></ul>
    22. 22. Missing the target? To what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in expected carbon reductions? Angela Druckman, Mona Chitnis, Steve Sorrell and Tim Jackson Contact: [email_address] 5th International Conference on Carbon Accounting Edinburgh Conference Center 25th November 2011

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