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5th International Conference : Angela Druckman


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  • 1. Taking a whole systems approach:Accounting for scope 3 emissions andavoiding unintended consequences5th International Conference on Carbon AccountingEdinburgh Conference Center13th March 2013Angela Lecturer in Sustainable Energy & Climate Change MitigationUniversity of Surrey
  • 2. Plan• Whole systems approach and Scope 3accounting• A typology of unintended consequences
  • 3. Whole Systems ApproachLife cycle stagesLife Cycle Thinking:A way of thinking that helps organisations understand andimprove the sustainability of their products and services.Raw MaterialExtractionManufacturing,Processing& FormulationTransportation& DistributionUse, Reuse& MaintenanceRecycling, Water& WasteManagement3
  • 4. Raw MaterialExtractionManufacturing,Processing& FormulationTransportation& DistributionUse, Reuse& MaintenanceRecycling, Water& WasteManagementMaterial & energy Inputs4Emissions to land, sea, air
  • 5. Raw materialextractionManufacturing,processing &formulationTransportation& distributionUse, reuse &maintenanceRecycling,water & wastemanagementProduct/processdesignResearch &developmentStrategy &planningLifeCyclePhasesPre-operationOperation Raw materialextractionRaw materialextractionManufacturing,processing &formulationManufacturing,processing &formulationTransportation& distributionTransportation& distributionUse, reuse &maintenanceUse, reuse &maintenanceRecycling,water & wastemanagementRecycling,water & wastemanagementProduct/processdesignProduct/processdesignResearch &developmentResearch &developmentStrategy &planningStrategy &planningLifeCyclePhasesLifeCyclePhasesPre-operationOperationAllen et al (1997)DecommissioningRemediation &restorationLife Cycle StagesPost-operationDecommissioningDecommissioningRemediation &restorationRemediation &restorationLife Cycle StagesPost-operation
  • 6. Where is the highestimpact in this system?Source: Gandy, S., Smith, S., Paton, W., and Aumônier, S. (2009). Review of Life Cycle Impacts of WCs.ERM. Defra, London.
  • 7. Life Cycle AssessmentLCA is a tool for the systematic evaluationof the environmental aspects of a productor service system through all stages of itslife cycle.Raw MaterialExtractionManufacturing,Processing& FormulationTransportation& DistributionUse, Reuse& MaintenanceRecycling, Water& WasteManagement“Cradle to grave”& Formulation Managementor“cradle to gate”allowable in somecircumstances
  • 8. • Assists in identification of trade-offs• Avoid burden shiftingLCA as a Decision Support Tool8Raw MaterialExtractionManufacturing,Processing& FormulationTransportation& DistributionUse, Reuse& MaintenanceRecycling, Water& WasteManagement8
  • 9. Organisational Reporting• Lack of information about supply chains;• Limited Scope 3 reporting.
  • 10. Source: Defra Guidance on how to measure and report your greenhouse gas emissions
  • 11. Reporting of Scope 3 EmissionsSource: CDP Annual Report 2012
  • 12. … without the need for detailed knowledge ofsupply chain• Environmental Input-Output Methodology• Based on economic Input-Output Tables– show sales and purchases betweenSupply Chain Reporting– show sales and purchases betweenindustry sectors
  • 13. 2nd round3rd roundF R G E S F R G E S F R G E S F R G E S F R G E SF R G E SMachineryF R G E SF R G E SIron ore for SteelSteel for machinery4th round5th roundJust onepathway ofmany!Food 1st roundResources Goods Energy ServicesPaperWoodAlec’s InsuranceCompany Adapted from Murray and Wood (2010)
  • 14. Environmental Input-Output Methodology• By knowingthe supply chain expenditure in eachsector by Alec’s Insurance Company,the total output (£) of each sector,total emissions CO2 from each sector,we can estimate the supply chain COwe can estimate the supply chain CO2emissions for each insurance policy sold.• EIO is based on techniques devised byWassily Leontief• Current computing power enables deeperanalysis
  • 15. Columns: Inputs to sector (‘recipe’)Agriculture Manufacturing Final Demand Total OutputAgriculture 20 30 50 100Manufacturing 40 80 80 200Labour 40 90 130An input-output table for a two sector economySource: Proops et al 1993Rows: Outputs to other sectors and to final demandLabour 40 90 130Total Input 100 200 130
  • 16. Imports• Estimating the upstream emissions due toimported goods and services presents achallenge.• Domestic Technology Assumption:– Assume that the technology used forproducing imports is same as• For more accuracy need:– Inter-industry flow A-matrix for each region– Environmental emissions per unit monetaryoutput for each sector for each region– Trade flows between all sectors for all regions.
  • 17. Recent advances in data availability• Multi-regional input-output datasets– enable emissions due to imports to beestimated with improved accuracy.– Eora:– World Input Output Database:– Eurosat:– Eurosat:– OECD
  • 18. Examples of toolkits to estimatesupply chain
  • 19. Plan• Whole systems approach and Scope 3accounting;• A typology of unintended consequences:1. Knowable and avoidable – toilet example2. Hard to assess2. Hard to assess© Angela Druckman 2013
  • 20. Biofuels• Previous studies:– substituting biofuels for gasoline will reducegreenhouse gases;• Searchinger et al (2008)– corn-based ethanol,– instead of producing a 20% savings, nearlydoubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years.doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years.• What was the difference?– Type of LCA analysis;– Previous studies didn’t take into account thecarbon emissions that occur as farmersworldwide respond to higher prices and convertforest and grassland to new cropland to replacethe grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels.References: Searchinger et al (2008) and Brander et al (2009)
  • 21. Types of LCA• Attributional– “Accounting”– Description of existing system with all activitiesleading up to product or service• Consequential– “Change-oriented”– Considers possible consequences of changes indemand or product system;– e.g. consequential land-use change– Insights of possible consequences often basedon market mechanisms– May require assumptions concerning futuretechnologies etcSource: Roland Clift (2012)
  • 22. Increase in research re consequential LCAHistogram of the number of articles published from 2002 to 2011 which containthe word “consequential” AND “LCA” in their abstract, title or keywords.Source: Zamagni et al (2012)
  • 23. Systems boundaries for Attributional andConsequential LCASource: Brander et al (2009)
  • 24. Attributional v Consequential LCA• Difference is in how boundaries are defined– Need clear and unambiguous definition ofthe goal of the study• Consequential LCA– How far should the chain of cause-effect– How far should the chain of cause-effectrelationships be traced?– Which consequences should be included?• Is there a ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ type?Source: Brander et al (2009) and Zamagni et al 2012
  • 25. Challenges of Consequential LCA• Complexity;• Transparency;• Sensitivity to assumptions;• Completeness?• Accuracy?• Accuracy?• Consequential modelling often done in anon-systematic and inconsistent way;(Zamagni et al 2012)• Still under development.
  • 26. PAS 2050:2011• “While GHG emissions also arise from indirectland use change, the methods and datarequirements for calculating these emissions arenot fully developed. Therefore, the assessmentof emissions arising from indirect land usechange is not included in this PAS. Thechange is not included in this PAS. Theinclusion of indirect land use change will beconsidered in future revisions of this PAS.”(page 11).
  • 27. In the meantime, the precautionaryprinciple should be applied
  • 28. A typology of unintended consequences1. Knowable and avoidable – toilet example2. Hard to assess – biofuels example3. “Knowable” but unavoidable© Angela Druckman 2013
  • 29. Household actions - rebound effectsLowerpetrolbillsHolidayinSpainMore energyIndirectEmbodiedenergyInvestmoneysavedLowerrunningcostsDriver furtheror more oftenFuel efficient - less energyMore energyMore energyDirectIndirectSource: Sorrell (2007)
  • 30. How to reinforce rebound effects…
  • 31. Rebound for simple ‘abatement actions’1. Household heating:reduce thermostat by1oC2. Food: reduce foodwaste by one third3. Transport: replace car3. Transport: replace carjourneys <2miles bywalking/cyclingRebound ~ 34%Reference: Druckman et al (2011)
  • 32. Rebound effect fromenergy efficiency measures• Cavity wall insulation• Loft insulation• Condensing boiler• Tank insulation• Energy efficient lightingSolar thermalReference: Chitnis et al (2012)• Solar thermal
  • 33. Rebound ~11%for combinationof measures(excl solarEstimated rebound effects for average UK household averaged over a tenyear period (2009-2018) with full capital costsReference: Chitnis et al (2012)(excl solarthermal) –subsidies nottaken intoaccount
  • 34. -20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Subsidies for capital costs increases reboundRebound ~14%for combinationEstimated rebound effects for average UK household averaged over a ten year period(2009-2018) with subsidised capital costs-30%-20%CavitywallinsulationLoftinsulationCondensingboilerTankinsulationCFLlightingLEDlightingSolarthermal1,2,3,4and5combined1,2,3,4and6combinedIncome effect Embodied effect Capital cost effect Net effectReference: Chitnis et al (2012)for combinationof measures(excl solarthermal) –subsidies nottaken intoaccount
  • 35. A typology of unintended consequences1. Knowable and avoidable – toilet example2. Hard to assess – biofuel example3. “Knowable” but unavoidable – householdactions – rebound effects exampleactions – rebound effects example4. Unknowable and unavoidable - ?© Angela Druckman 2013
  • 36. Summary• Whole systems approach– Understanding product and supply chain– EIO, and attributional v consequential LCA– New MRIO datasets• A typology of unintended consequences• A typology of unintended consequences1.Knowable and avoidable – toilet example2.Hard to assess – biofuel example3.“Knowable” but unavoidable –household actions,rebound effects example4.Unknowable and unavoidable.© Angela Druckman 2013
  • 37. Selected References• Brander, M., R. Tipper, C. Hutchison and G. Davis (2009). Consequential andAttributional Approaches to LCA: a Guide to Policy Makers with SpecificReference to Greenhouse Gas LCA of Biofuels. Technical Paper TP-090403-A,Ecometrica Press.• Chitnis, M., S. Sorrell, A. Druckman, S. K. Firth and T. Jackson (2013). "Turninglights into flights: Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UKhouseholds." Energy Policy 55: 234–250.• Druckman, A., M. Chitnis, S. Sorrell and T. Jackson (2011). "Missing carbonreductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households " EnergyPolicy 39: 3572–3581.• Gallagher, E. (2008). The Gallagher Review of the indirect effects of biofuelsproduction, Renewable Fuels Agency.production, Renewable Fuels Agency.• Murray, J. and R. Wood, Ed(s). (2010). The Sustainabilitys Practitioners Guideto Input-Output Analysis. Champaign, Illinois, USA, Common Ground.• Searchinger, T., R. Heimlich, R. A. Houghton et al (2008). "Use of U.S.Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions fromLand-Use Change." Science 319(5867): 1238-1240.• Sorrell, S. (2007). The rebound effect: an assessment of the evidence foreconomy-wide energy savings from improved energy efficiency. London, UK,UKERC.• Zamagni, A., J. Guinee, R. Heijungs, P. Masoni and A. Raggi (2012). "Lightsand shadows in consequential LCA." The International Journal of Life CycleAssessment 17(7): 904-918.