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What Success Looks Like       Chris Miller         President      Illuminomics
iCanada Conference                         Building an Intelligent Nation    Assessing Intelligent Communities            ...
A Move Beyond the Basics    •  Measuring the new economy with old tools?    •  New sources and lots of them    •  Moving b...
The Valdosta Story                                   Context    The city of Valdosta is located in south-central Georgia a...
The Valdosta Story                        Targeting Smart Sectors    In 2004 Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Commerce, headed ...
The Valdosta Story                                         The Results    As you will see in the next few slides, during t...
Valdosta-Lowndes 2011 Economic Survey                         prepared by Illuminomics for Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Com...
Targeted Business Expansion Sectors        NAICS                            TBEC Sector Description        Information Tec...
Economic Sector Size by Jobs                                                                                 Valdosta MSA,...
Economic Sector Size by Wages                                                                                Valdosta MSA,...
Economic Sector Size by Wages vs. Jobs                                                                                    ...
12                                                                                                                        ...
Short Term Economic Change                                                                           Valdosta MSA, 2001-20...
Short vs. Long Term Economic Change                                                                                       ...
TBEC Sector Size and Growth Comparisons                                                            various MSA’s, 2001-201...
TBEC Growth Trend Comparisons ST                                                                      Valdosta MSA, 2001-2...
TBEC Sector Trend Breakdown                                                              Valdosta MSA, 1992-2010          ...
Long Term Avg Wage Comparisons US                                                                    various MSA’s, 1990-2...
Short Term Avg Wage Comparisons US                                                                     various MSA’s, 2001...
Percent of Salary Spent on Housing US                                                                                 vari...
A Final Word                           About the Data In This Analysis     Illuminomics used data for its analysis from th...
Quantity Growth or Quality Impact?                                      DAIMLER-CHYSLER                         TCCi total...
What’s Really Going On?                                  Chatham County, 1990-2005                       The Two Most Sign...
Digging a Little Deeper                                                                     Average Wage Distribution     ...
New Tools For a New Economy                      Who Do Ya Love? ……….SAVANNAH!     How the world views various places from...
So Much Data, So Little Mining     •  studies & reports                                     •  independent ratings/ranking...
How Cool is Cool                             Surveying the Urban Landscape     inviting sidewalks                    visib...
Summing It All Up          Intelligent cities need to be measured in intelligent ways                         There is a w...
11 miller
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  1. 1. What Success Looks Like Chris Miller President Illuminomics
  2. 2. iCanada Conference Building an Intelligent Nation Assessing Intelligent Communities New Weighs of Seeing Chris Miller CEO Illuminomics Nov 16th 20112 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
  3. 3. A Move Beyond the Basics •  Measuring the new economy with old tools? •  New sources and lots of them •  Moving beyond quantity and measuring quality •  Taking a holistic approach - its not just about jobs •  Keepin’ it real - what counts, what doesn’t •  Digging deep •  Ways to measure •  Innovative approaches •  Anecdotal measures •  What does success look like?3 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
  4. 4. The Valdosta Story Context The city of Valdosta is located in south-central Georgia and because of regional and historic factors, has seen relatively low average wages and slow economic growth. As with many rural areas and major parts of the U.S., they have seen a once strong manufacturing base steadily erode over time, dramatically altering the regional economy and putting downward pressure on overall average wages. These job losses were somewhat offset by rapid growth in the retail sector as Valdosta became a major shopping destination for traffic on the I-85 corridor as well as the region. However, because of the historically low wages paid by the retail sector, it did little to staunch the continued decline of overall average wages within the community.4
  5. 5. The Valdosta Story Targeting Smart Sectors In 2004 Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Commerce, headed by Myrna Ballard, engaged illuminomics to help craft an innovative, strategic framework that would increase average wages in the region by the targeted growth and creation of higher-wage, knowledge-based and creative jobs. Now, after 5 years of steady progress in creating and enhancing the economic, social and urban environmental factors that can accelerate the growth and creation of “smart jobs”, Valdosta has arrived at point where the direct impact of these programs can be easily seen and measured by solid, authoritative and quantifiable data. This data, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Department of Labor, shows that not only has this targeted strategic effort slowed down the decades long decline of the regional average wage, it has quite literally, turned it around.5
  6. 6. The Valdosta Story The Results As you will see in the next few slides, during the period that the Chamber has run its TBEC program (Targeted Business Expansion Council) Valdosta has gone from a declining economic position, relative to the U.S., Georgia and its peer group of similar cities, to a complete reversal with Valdosta now outperforming the U.S., the state of Georgia, and 5 of its 6 peer group cities in “TBEC-sector” job growth, average wage growth, as well as wage cost of housing declines (% of monthly salary devoted to housing). The purpose of this brief summary and the attached graphs is to show that by enhancing the economic, social, urban and environmental factors attractive to high- wage job workers, with a clear focus, innovative programs, a high degree of collaboration and a steady effort, that a community can take control of its own economic fate and turn-around even the toughest case of historic declines into becoming an “intelligent city” capable of competing in the modern global economy. This is a “proof-of-the-pudding” success story. It isn’t quick, it isn’t easy, but in a day and age of very tough economic head-winds and significant national job losses, it should be encouraging to know that the path to becoming an intelligent city works; and in doing so, it is possible to turn around the economy of a city and improve the quality of life for its residents.6
  7. 7. Valdosta-Lowndes 2011 Economic Survey prepared by Illuminomics for Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Commerce Regional Wage and Employment Trends A Comparative Analysis 1990-2010 The following analysis was performed by Illuminomics with the support of the Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Commerce. All data contained in this analysis is taken directly from the most authoritative local, state and nationally recognized sources, using the most currently available data sets. To ensure data accuracy and integrity, no multipliers were used in any calculations and all non-confidential data can be independently verified from public sources. Chris Miller CEO Illuminomics Myrna Ballard President Chamber of Commerce Tara Nichols Vice President Chamber of Commerce Nov 11th 2011 v4.57 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
  8. 8. Targeted Business Expansion Sectors NAICS TBEC Sector Description Information Technology 511-- Publishing industries (including software) 512-- Motion picture and sound recording industries 515-- Broadcasting, except Internet 516-- Internet publishing and broadcasting 517-- Telecommunications 518-- Data processing, hosting and related services 519-- Other information services Environmental Technology 541-- Professional, technical & design services 551-- Management of companies and enterprises Medical Services & Support (listed separately as “Health Care”) 621-- Ambulatory health care services (physicians, dentists, labs, etc) 622-- Hospitals ** North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes provide a 1 to 5 digit classification number to8 describe various types of economic activity. TBEC and TBEC+ are composites of the above 3 digit NAICS codes.
  9. 9. Economic Sector Size by Jobs Valdosta MSA, 2010 Sector Size by Percent of Total Jobs 35% 31.1% 30% 25%% of total jobs 20% 15.8% 14.6%14.2% 15% 12.8% 11.3% 10% 7.5% 5.0% 4.1% 4.1% 5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0% & e A ho vt Es r. dm ac re le or g H eG . Tr Fe ru s lG n nc Tr y C er g n & de Re T t isu il T C t uc te at sp ov M al ov st ce e ad na le tr tio al su s. era tio ho F in S in Le ta BE o uf Ca Ed ta Fi sa es re ra St Ho W g & us in tur lG Re In on vi an d c a an th ca W Lo e & A 9 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  10. 10. Economic Sector Size by Wages Valdosta MSA, 2010 Sector Size by Percent of Total Wages 40% 34.5%% of total wages 30% 19.4% 20% 15.4% 13.7% 10.9% 9.7% 10% 5.7% 5.6% 5.2% 5.1% 4.1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0% Fo e & ruc t A le ur. an il T e na Se ing Tr C ral p. ou n le & I s uc te es y Fe & ng n isu ct e t at EC lth ovt s. st ov ov e & rad al str tio A W tio M ta ar Le ufa ad s Ed ta W nc rvic sa ns re uri St TB de Ho an on G s lG H eG Re C Re r e a r T ca dm h ho e ea Lo Fi in10 g SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  11. 11. Economic Sector Size by Wages vs. Jobs Valdosta MSA, 2010 Sector Size by Percent of Wages vs. Jobs 34.5% 31.1%% of total jobs vs. total wages 25% 19.4% 20% 15.8% 15.4% 13.7% 14.6% 15% 14.2% Total Wages 12.8% 11.3% 10.9% 9.7% Total Jobs 10% 7.5% 5.7% 5.6% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5% 4.1% 4.1% 3.0% 4.1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0% Fo e & uc t A le ur. an il T e na Se ing . ou n & es uc te es y Fe & H g n isu ct e t at EC lth ovt s. str ov sp ov & rad al str tio A W tio M ta ar Le ufa ad n Ed ta W nce rvic sa Ins re uri St TB de o an n G s lG H eG Re C Re r e a r T Tr Co ral ca dm h ea Lo Fi in le g ho 11 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  12. 12. 12 average annual salary Tr an s. & Ut $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $0 W ilit Fe ho ies 70 Fi de us ,6 na r in 29 nc al g 51 M e Go ,5 a 67 W nu & In vt 41 ho fa s ,9 80 le ct ur. 41 sa ur ,8 80 C le ing 39 on Tr ,4 st ad 48 ru e 38 ct ,2 io 95 H 37 ea TB n ,9 lth EC 10 37 St C ,3 $42,859 at a 81 r 37 Lo e G e ,1SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data 15 Georgia avg wage ca o v Valdosta MSA, 2010 36 A Re l G t ,4 dm a o 74 l v 33 in Est t ,7 Se at 24 Re rv e 29 ,4 Average Wages by Sector A tai ice 86 g lt s 25 Average Annual Salary by Sector & ra ,2 Fo de 64 22 Le Ed res ,7 isu uc try 30 22 re at ,3 & ion 48 H 20 ,9 os $30,416 88 p. 12 ,1 97 Valdosta avg wage
  13. 13. Short Term Economic Change Valdosta MSA, 2001-2010 15.5% Average Annual Percent Job Growth by Sectorannual % change in number of jobs 15% 10.5% 10% Valdosta 9 year annualized 6.4% 5.7% 5.3% job growth +0.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.6% 5% 2.9% -0.5% 0.7% 0.2% -0.9% 0% -3.3% e ovt . ng es tion ng sp. stry ovt C de tion re ovt tate sur rad TBE Ca vic turi usi Tra Ho lG al G te G & In ore ruc ca -3.0% l Es -5% eT Ser ho alth ac era e& ail -4.5% Edu &F nst Rea Loc sal Sta ce &W nuf Ret min Fed He sur Co ole Ag an Ma Lei Ad ns. Fin Wh Tra13 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  14. 14. Short vs. Long Term Economic Change Valdosta MSA, 2001-2010 Average Annual Percent Job Growth by Sectorannual % change in number of jobs 16% 15.5% 1992-2010 vs. 2001-2010 overall average annual growth 12.5% 1992-2010 2001-2010 12% 11.0% 10.5% 8.7% 8% 6.4% 6.3% 5.4% 5.7% 5.6% 5.8% 5.3% 5.2% 4.1% 4.6% 4.3% 3.9% 4% 2.9% 2.1% 1.4% 1.3% 5.1% 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0% -0.5% -0.9% Education Whousing Construction Manufacturing TBEC Services Leisure & Finance & Ag & Forestry State Govt Local Govt Federal Govt Wholesale Health Care Real Estate Retail Trade Admin -2.4% Trans. & Hosp. -4% -3.0% Insur. Trade -3.3% -4.5% 14 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  15. 15. TBEC Sector Size and Growth Comparisons various MSA’s, 2001-2010 TBEC Sector % Share & Annualized Change in Jobs annualized % change in employment TBEC Sector Share of All Jobs (2010) 23.2% TBEC Change in Number of Jobs (2001-2010) 22% 19.6% All Industies Job Growth 2001-2010 (annualized) 15.8% 16% 14.1% 11.6% 10% 6.0% 4.6% 3.3% 2.9% 4% 1.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.7% -2% ns -0.7% -0.6% e e ny a rk m st bi a do la Ro lb b C Ro al A s- V r- en ne th ar A W15 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  16. 16. TBEC Growth Trend Comparisons ST Valdosta MSA, 2001-2010 Cumulative Job Growth in TBEC and All Industries 40%cumulative % growth of jobs TBEC Jobs (+41.4%) 30% avg. salary: $37,381 20% All Jobs (+3.9%) avg. salary: $30,416 10% All Jobs except TBEC (-0.6%) 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -10% 16 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  17. 17. TBEC Sector Trend Breakdown Valdosta MSA, 1992-2010 Job Growth Comparison Between TBEC Sectors 10000 8000number of TBEC+ jobs Healthcare Services 6000 (+82.4%) 4000 Management of Companies (-55.2%) avg. salary: $47,853 2000 Technical and Professional (+52..3%) avg. salary $43,375 0 Information Services (+103%) avg. salary: 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 17 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  18. 18. Long Term Avg Wage Comparisons US various MSA’s, 1990-2010 Real Avg. Wages as % of U.S. Avg Wage U.S. average wage = 100% 100% Georgia (-2.3%)% of U.S. average wage 90% Warner-Robbins (+2.6%) Athens (-9.3%) Rome (-7.9%) 80% Albany (-6.0%) 70% Valdosta (-6.4%) 60% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 18 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  19. 19. Short Term Avg Wage Comparisons US various MSA’s, 2001-2010 Real Avg. Wages as % of U.S. Avg Wage U.S. average wage = 100% 100% Georgia (-5.3%)% of U.S. average wage 90% Warner-Robbins (+4.3%) Athens (-1.6%) 80% Rome (-3.0%) Albany (-0.9%) 70% Valdosta (+0.9%) 60% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 19 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  20. 20. Percent of Salary Spent on Housing US various MSA’s, 2005-2010 Wage Cost of Homeownership as a % of U.S. 120% Valdosta (-3.3%)% above or below US avg 110% Athens (+1.7%) Georgia (+2.8%) USA ( = to 100%) 100% Warner-Robbins (-2.3%) Albany (-1.2%) 90% Rome (+11.1%) 80% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201020 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data
  21. 21. A Final Word About the Data In This Analysis Illuminomics used data for its analysis from the most authoritative sources: The Georgia Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of Labor and the U.S. Census Bureau. To obtain private disaggregate wage and employment data, Illuminomics and the Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber signed a confidentiality agreement with the Georgia Department of Labor to protect individual company data concerning employment and wages, especially in circumstances when only a few companies reside in a specific sector. Therefore, there are times when the public data and the privately aggregated data differ. In those circumstances, the privately aggregated data contained in this report is the more accurate. Moreover, the Georgia Department of Labor constantly revises its historical data sets. Those revisions are not always released to the public. Illuminomics, however, has access to those revisions and has incorporated them into this analysis. In some cases that may cause public and privately aggregated data to differ ever so slightly, with this analysis often more accurate than what would be available to the general public. Finally, care should be taken when comparing two data sets representing the same information. Those data sets may differ in locality (MSA vs. County), time period (month vs. quarter); interval time-length and industry control (private vs. public sector). Chris Miller cmiller@illuminomics.com21 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
  22. 22. Quantity Growth or Quality Impact? DAIMLER-CHYSLER TCCi total jobs created 3000 199 total project expenditures $320,000,000 $590,351 total annual wages created $164,805,000 $11,094,135 project cost per job created $106,666 $2,967 wages generated/$ spent $0.51 $18.79 wages generated/acre $96,944 $9,984,72122 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
  23. 23. What’s Really Going On? Chatham County, 1990-2005 The Two Most Significant 15 Year Employment Trends 18,000 Average Annual Salary : $13,993 17,000 16,000 Manufacturing 15,000 Leisure and HospitalityJobs 14,000 Manufacturing Leisure & 13,000 Hospitality 12,000 Average Annual Salary : $55,986 11,000 10,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 200423 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
  24. 24. Digging a Little Deeper Average Wage Distribution Savannah MSA, 2003 18% 16% 14% 12% Percent of Jobs 10% Savannah 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 20 80 40 00 60 20 00 32 48 64 80 96 1 2 4 6 7 9 0 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $4 40 00 60 20 80 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- $2 $4 $5 $7 $8 04 20 36 52 68 84 00 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 Average Weekly Wage $224 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
  25. 25. New Tools For a New Economy Who Do Ya Love? ……….SAVANNAH! How the world views various places from the lens of Internet search engines. Go to Google, type in “I Love <any city>”, then substitute “hate” for “love”. What you get is a love/hate ratio. What you get is a number for how many people felt strongly enough about their like/dislike opinions to put it somewhere on a web page. These numbers are what they are and no one can really manipulate them. The simple fact is: People are passionate about Savannah! love/hate ratio: 47.1 love/hate ratio: 11.0 "i love savannah" +ga: 1,130 "i love charlotte" +nc: 1050 "i hate savannah" +ga: 24 "i hate charlotte" +nc: 95 love/hate ratio: 32.5 love/hate ratio: 5.6 "i love asheville" +nc: 586 "i love raleigh" +nc: 284 "i hate asheville" +nc: 18 "i hate raleigh" +nc: 51 love/hate ratio: 16.9 love/hate ratio: 3.2 "i love greenville" +sc: 104 "i love jacksonville" +fl: 264 "i hate greenville" +sc: 10 "i hate jacksonville" +fl: 82 love/hate ratio: 16.9 love/hate ratio: 1.9 "i love charleston" +sc: 473 "i love atlanta" +ga: 908 "i hate charleston" +sc: 28 "i hate atlanta" +ga: 48325 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
  26. 26. So Much Data, So Little Mining •  studies & reports •  independent ratings/rankings •  wikipedia •  newspaper/magazine articles •  ground proofing •  yellow pages •  google search •  blogs •  surveys •  twitter posts •  interviews •  web sites •  govt info •  ranking - fed- census, DOL, BLS, FBI •  private data sources - state - Chamber - county - CVB - realtors - city - colleges - econ dev26 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
  27. 27. How Cool is Cool Surveying the Urban Landscape inviting sidewalks visible transition between size of historic area urban/suburb/rural auto orientation outside tables street activity Way-finding pedestrians density mixed use tree canopy distance to water mixed income meeting places tree canopy parks public space park benches good lighting interesting architecture public restrooms utility placement wifi networks "cool spots" architecture bicycles charm coffee shops cleanliness critical mass live music venues dominant features cleanliness / litter interesting layout smell27 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
  28. 28. Summing It All Up Intelligent cities need to be measured in intelligent ways There is a wealth of new data out there Look and think beyond the obvious Focus on quality, not just quantity Take a holistic perspective Benchmark against others Consider the trends Think long-term Keep it real Thank you! Chris Miller Illuminomics28 Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com
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