324 john axsen

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  • 324 john axsen

    1. 1. Connecting plug-in vehicles to green electricity through consumer demand Presented: December 10, 2013 Dr. Jonn Axsen, Simon Fraser University EMRG Energy and Materials Research Group Funded by: BMW of North America, LLC Natural Resources Canada Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
    2. 2. Huge variety among plug-in vehicles (PEV) ~800 km gasoline 20 km Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) Toyota Prius PHV ~500 km gasoline ~56 km Chevy Volt ~117 km electric range Pure Electric (EV) Nissan Leaf ~300km electric range Tesla Roadster Comparing Battery Sizes: 4 kWh 24 kWh 16 kWh 53 kWh
    3. 3. 3 PEV emissions greatly depend on the source of electricity 450 Regular vehicles EV 400 PHEV-40 350 PHEV-20 Driving 300 Carbon Intensity250 Hybrid (gCO2/ 200 mile) 150 100 Natural Gas 50 U.S. Average Canada Today 0 0 200 Coal 400 600 800 1000 Electricity Carbon Intensity (gCO2/kWh) Source: Axsen et al. (2011), Energy Policy
    4. 4. Questions I will explore today: 1. Do PEV buyers want “green electricity”? 2. Will PEV buyers give charging control to their electric utility? 3. What are consumer motives?
    5. 5. Study 1: Green electricity with your PEV? (US car buyers, n=1502)
    6. 6. Research Method 20-minute web-based survey US new vehicle buyers, n = 1502 3 segments: buyers of conventional, hybrids and PEVs Survey layout: 1. Game 1: PEV design 2. Game 2: Green-electricity design 3. Game 3: “Combined” design (PEV and Green-E) 4. Motivation assessment
    7. 7. Game 1: PEV design games Respondents first select their next anticipated vehicle by type (CV or HEV) and body size (compact, sedan, mid-sized or full SUV/truck). Incremental price, compared to base vehicle. HEV: $780 to $1740 PHEV: $2090 to $7540 EVs: $2940 to $25,380 Example Screenshot from Survey
    8. 8. Game 1: Vehicle Designs Hybrid and PHEVs are most popular. % of Sample segment 60% 50% 40% Plug-in hybrid 30% Hybrid (HEV) 20% 40 miles 10% Conventional vehicle 20 miles 10 miles 0% CV HEV PHEV Selected vehicle design Electric vehicle 200 miles 100 miles EV 150 125
    9. 9. Game 2: Green Electricity design games 1) No green program: or current “green” program if already enrolled. 2) Monthly Green Program: ¢1.5 to 3/kWh 3) 2-Year Green Lease: ¢1.5 to 3 /kWh 4) Install residential solar: $20 to $102/month Example Screenshot from Survey
    10. 10. Game 2: Green Electricity Designs Lots of interest in monthly programs and home solar 50% 40% % of 30% Sample Segment 20% 900 kWh 100% of home usage 60% 10% 0% None Current Program Monthly Green Program 540 kWh 20% 20% 100% 60% 180 kWh 2-year Green Install rooftop Lease solar Electricity program selected
    11. 11. Game 3: Combining vehicle and electricity options Example Screenshot from Survey
    12. 12. Game 3: Combining vehicle and electricity games Hybrid buyers 100% EV 80% PHEV HEV 60% CV 40% 20% 0% Game 1: PEV Game 3: Mixed Complements: The combination increases PEV demand by 23%
    13. 13. Study 2: Acceptance of utility controlled charging (Canada car buyers, n=1754)
    14. 14. Pairing renewables & PEVs Many sources of renewables are intermittent so the timing of electricity supply may not match the timing of electricity demand. Green Electricity Supply PEV Electricity Demand (load) 12am 12pm 11pm 14
    15. 15. Pairing renewables & PEVs Many sources of renewables are intermittent so the timing of electricity supply may not match the timing of electricity demand. Green Electricity Supply PEV Electricity Demand (load) 12am 12pm 11pm 15
    16. 16. Utility controlled charging (UCC)—Any situation where the electric utility controls Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) charging in order to better utilize intermittent renewable electricity sources. 16
    17. 17. The Sample Total completes: 1754 The overall sample is generally representative of new car buyers: Older, higher income, more highly educated, and more likely to own their own home 17
    18. 18. Who are the “early mainstream?” 45% 36% = potential 35% “early mainstream” 30% PEV buyers Percentage of Sample 40% 25% 64km Electric Range 20% 15% Further analysis uses only 10% these respondents 5% 32km 240km Electric range 200km 160km 120km 16km 0% Conventional n=1469 36% of total sample (n=530) Hybrid PHEV EV 80km 18
    19. 19. Making Tradeoffs – Stated Preferences Status Quo UCC alternative 1 UCC alternative 2 19
    20. 20. Latent-class discrete choice model: 3 different consumer perspectives Class #1: Pro-Green (21% of sample) – – – – Generally supports utility-controlled charging Positive value for renewables Strong pro-environmental values/attitudes Younger, more educated Class #2: Pro-Savings (41% of sample) – Also supports utility-controlled charging – Highly sensitive to savings on electrical bill – Strong pro-environmental values/attitudes Class #3: Anti-controlled charging (38% of sample) – Negative perception of UCC – Older, less educated 20
    21. 21. Comparing charging programs based on bill savings vs. renewable uptake Baseline (No renewables, no savings) Pro-Green (21%) Pro-Savings (41%) Anti-UCC (38%) All (100%) 20% bill savings Pro-Green (21%) Pro-Savings (41%) Anti-UCC (38%) All (100%) Pro-Green (21%) 100% renewable Pro-Savings (41%) Anti-UCC (38%) All (100%) Pro-Green (21%) 20% savings + 100% renewable Pro-Savings (41%) Anti-UCC (38%) All (100%) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 21 % of PEV market accepting UCC
    22. 22. Summary points Lack of awareness: most consumers do not presently think about the source of electricity for PEVs. Green electricity can boost demand for PEVs: …when green-electricity option is presented. “Utility controlled charging” acceptable to half of potential PEV buyers: support varies by green vs. financial motivation (which links to consumer values and lifestyle) Variety of consumer motives: environmental values, financial savings, new technology, trust and privacy 22
    23. 23. Appendices
    24. 24. Guaranteed minimum charge (GMC) 200km – 100% or Full Charge 180 km Guaranteed Minimum Charge 180km – 90% Charge The absolute minimal level of charge that you would wake up to on any given morning. 20km 20km – 10% of Charge This area may have charge but it may not. This will depend on the utility. The larger the consumer allows this area to be the more useful their vehicle can be to the utility. 24
    25. 25. Preferences for electricity source when charging PEVs How do you feel about using the following energy sources to produce electricity for electric vehicles? Coal Nuclear Biomass Natural Gas Large Hydro Run-of-river Geothermal Wind Solar -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Sample n=530 25
    26. 26. How do they feel about UCC? To what extent do you agree with the following statements about Utility Controlled Charging? Utility controlled charging… Negative Statement Positive Statement Will help the environment Should be supported by the government Should be required for all PEV owners Will take control away from me in a way that I would not like Is an invasion of my privacy -40% n=530 -20% 0% 20% 40% Percentage of Sample 60% 80% 26
    27. 27. Binary logistic regression helped to explain respondent interest in “combined” product. Controlling for numerous variables, Respondents were more likely to combine a PEV and Greenelectricity design in Game 3 if they… …are under 60 years of age.** …live in a detached home.* …recently bought an HEV or PEV.** …engaged in technology-oriented lifestyle.** …had stronger pro-environmental attitude (NEP scale).** * Significant at 95% confidence level (p < 0.05) ** Significant at 99% confidence level (p < 0.01)
    28. 28. Method Overview: The web-based survey instrument required 20-25 minutes to complete. The flow of survey questions was customized based on respondent characteristics, including up to three design games: (the survey also included many demographic and attitudinal questions not depicted here.) Has residential solar panels? Yes No Segment: CVB, HEVB, PEVB? Segment: CVB, HEVB, PEVB? Select “base” vehicle for design games Select “base” vehicle for design games CV as base Potential to upgrade to: Game 1 HEV, PHEV or EV HEV as base Potential to upgrade to: PHEV or EV CV as base Potential to upgrade to: HEV, PHEV or EV Assess potential to install home solar Can have solar Potential upgrades to: Game 2 Green program/lease or solar Game 3 No solar potential Potential upgrades to: Green program/lease Options to combine vehicle and electricity program: Vehicles: (CV), HEV, PHEV or EV Electricity: current, green program, lease, (solar) End of survey HEV as base Potential to upgrade to: PHEV or EV
    29. 29. Game 1: PEV Design Games Incremental prices for upgrades are based on technical literature. • • All prices were framed as increments added to the “base” vehicle price (CV or HEV) Incremental prices based on simple electric-drive price model: – – • Two price scenarios: “Higher” and “lower” battery prices – • $/kWh was higher for batteries with higher power-energy ratio (W/Wh) Incremental price includes battery, changes to engine, motor, charger, exhaust and wiring “Higher” battery prices are double those in “lower” scenario Base and incremental prices differ by “base” model: compact, sedan, mid-sized SUV/truck or full-sized SUV/truck – Incremental prices higher for larger, heavier vehicles Higher Price Game* Compact HEV $1,080 PHEV-10 $2,710 PHEV-20 $3,160 PHEV-40 $4,070 EV-75 $5,940 EV-100 $7,570 EV-125 $9,200 EV-150 $10,820 EV-200 $14,070 Sedan $1,290 $3,530 $4,060 $5,110 $6,920 $8,790 $10,670 $12,540 $16,290 Mid-SUV $1,480 $4,120 $4,830 $6,240 $8,970 $11,490 $14,010 $16,530 $21,570 Full-SUV $1,740 $5,050 $5,880 $7,540 $10,550 $13,510 $16,480 $19,450 $25,380 Lower Price Game* Compact HEV $780 PHEV-10 $2,090 PHEV-20 $2,320 PHEV-40 $2,770 EV-75 $2,940 EV-100 $3,760 EV-125 $4,570 EV-150 $5,380 EV-200 $7,010 Sedan $850 $2,600 $2,860 $3,380 $3,140 $4,080 $5,020 $5,960 $7,830 Mid-SUV $920 $2,950 $3,300 $4,000 $4,010 $5,270 $6,530 $7,790 $10,310 Full-SUV $1,000 $3,510 $3,920 $4,760 $4,500 $5,980 $7,460 $8,950 $11,910 *Price increases relative to the selected “base” vehicle. If respondent selects an HEV as the “base” vehicle, then incremental prices are as shown, but less the HEV incremental price.
    30. 30. Game 2: Green Electricity Design Games • • Each respondent’s assumed monthly household kWh demand was based on their U.S. State of residence and housing type (detached, attached, apartment or mobile home) Green electricity program and lease prices were based on two rates: – – • • Higher price scenario: $0.03 per kWh covered by plan (20 to 100% of monthly kWh) Lower price scenario: $0.015 per kWh Residential solar only offered to respondents with solar potential (rooftop access, and likely would have authority or permission to install) Solar installation prices based on: – – – – System size (180, 360, 540, 720 or 900 kWh per month) Following economies of scale, $/watt was lower for larger systems (as detailed by IBNL, 2011) Two price scenarios: Higher ($5.1 to $3.6/W) and lower ($3.6 to $2.5/W)—gov’t incentives included Monthly finance rate based on 5%, 20-year rate 1. Monthly Program Solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, biomass, small hydro, or determined by electric utility Levels: 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% or 100% of household electricity use Price = $0.03/kWh 2. Two-Year Lease Lease solar panels or wind turbine (somewhere else) 3. Install Home Solar Solar panels installed at home Same as Monthly (#1) Lower price scenario Levels: 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% or 100% of household electricity use Price = $0.015/kWh Same as Monthly (#1) Savings on electric bill None None 180 kWh: $29/month ($5.1/W) 360 kWh: $58/month ($5.1/W) 540 kWh: $68/month ($4.0/W) 720 kWh: $86/month ($3.8/W) 900 kWh: $102/month ($3.6/W) 180 kWh: $20/month ($3.6/W) 360 kWh: $40/month ($3.6/W) 540 kWh: $48/month ($2.8/W) 720 kWh: $60/month ($2.7/W) 900 kWh: $71/month ($2.5/W) Savings = (% solar) x Household bill Source options Higher price scenario
    31. 31. Summary of Results Results from Game 1 (PEV designs): – – – – – Conventional vehicle buyers most frequently design HEVs (49%) or PHEVs (23-24%). Hybrid buyers gravitate to HEVs (40-47%) or PHEVs (35 to 38%). Pure EVs designed by 3-7% of conventional buyers, 7-12% of hybrid buyers. Plug-in buyers gravitate to PEV designs (28% PHEV, 57% EV). Respondents that already have “green electricity” are more likely to design PEV. Results from Game 2 (Green Electricity designs): – – – Among conventional vehicle buyers, most design some form of green electricity: home solar (23-27%), a green electricity program (18-22%) or lease (6-9%). 32-42% of conventional vehicle buyers prefer no green program. Most hybrid and plug-in buyers either already own a home solar system (32-37%) or design one (18-35%) Results from Game 3 (Combined games): – – 31% of conventional buyers combined a PEV with a Green-E program, as did 53% of hybrid buyers, and 86% of plug-in buyers. Adding Green-E options increased overall demand for PEV designs among conventional buyers (23%), hybrid buyers (20%), and PEV buyers (5%). (While the percent increase is low for PEV buyers, it is from a very high base of over 80 percent.) Consumer Motivations: – – – We observe a wide variety of motives across and within respondent segments, including environment, cost, oil politics, renewable support and control of energy. Conventional and hybrid buyers are more likely to be motived by cost savings. PEV buyers more strongly motivated by technical interest and as well as environment.

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