Expert opinions &
potential estimation
                       Lieven De Marez
                       IBBT - MICT - UGent
 ...
2

2006: High expectations for Mobile Television
         Technology Hype Cycle anno 2006
3

2006: Trials allover Europe, mostly technology-centred

“Consumers do perhaps need to know about the technology, but I
...
4

2006: Flemish trial, more than only technology-centred


Maduf, also with an explicit focus on …

CONTENT?
     = inter...
Experts                     Potential                          Trial             5


  Based on the trial findings and opi...
Experts                          Potential      Trial   6


        When? Potential for 3 new prime times
                ...
Experts                    Potential                         Trial              7


 Based on a large scaled survey (n: 57...
Experts              Potential                Trial          8


Mass Market Potential? As promising as abroad?




      ...
Experts              Potential              Trial   9


Mass Market Potential? As promising as abroad? No




            ...
Experts                     Potential                     Trial     10


Mass Market Potential? As promising as abroad? No...
Experts                   Potential                    Trial             11


  What Content? News & information !



  N...
Experts                 Potential                  Trial          12


  Based on the behaviour & experience of 30 trial u...
Experts                 Potential                                   Trial   13


   When? Viewing pattern

  Heavy viewer...
Experts                    Potential               Trial   14


Where? At home, on the road, time killing …

  According t...
15

 Conclusion
 Mobile Television in Flanders, 2008, potential to be more than a hype?

  Mass Market Potential? No, ca....
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Maduf07 Expert Opinion And Potential Estimation Lieven De Marez

  1. 1. Expert opinions & potential estimation Lieven De Marez IBBT - MICT - UGent 20/03/2008
  2. 2. 2 2006: High expectations for Mobile Television Technology Hype Cycle anno 2006
  3. 3. 3 2006: Trials allover Europe, mostly technology-centred “Consumers do perhaps need to know about the technology, but I am not sure that the point of consumer differentiation is going to be whether they get their Mobile TV through DAB, DVB-H, Unicast, UMTS or even wi-fi. If you can provide a useful content experience, a good channel line up and a service that looks and feels like TV, that is the point where customers will buy it and you will get mass-market take-up. How it’s delivered is a nice discussion for the technology providers to have, but not a point of consumer focus.” Peter Mercier, Director of Business Development for MobiTV Europe
  4. 4. 4 2006: Flemish trial, more than only technology-centred Maduf, also with an explicit focus on … CONTENT? = international expert panel (n: 35) (< trials & authors) = Killer content for mobile TV? Usage moments? Usage locations? MASS MARKET TAKE-UP? = Potential Estimation Survey (n: 575, online panel) = Adoption potential Flanders? Wtp? What content, moments, locations? CONSUMER FOCUS? = pre-post-Trial comparison (n: 30) = Changes in attitudes? Experiences with mobile tv?
  5. 5. Experts Potential Trial 5 Based on the trial findings and opinions of experts (n: 35) …   When? 3 moments   Why? 4 drivers (entertainment, information, background, 2nd TV)   What Content? Triumvirate: news, sport & soaps/series + music & adult   Where? Mobile usage: on the move, waiting contexts, … … BUT also at home !?!   82%: ‘mobile tv device’ as a Personal TV … but 70% doubts the willingness-to-pay for a separate device   82%: existing linear content as a necessary trigger, … … + mobile specific content to create added value   67% DRM as a major threshold
  6. 6. Experts Potential Trial 6 When? Potential for 3 new prime times 12:00 Potentialnew Potential for new prime Mobile TV prime times Times Emo Work 06:00 18:00 Emo Sleep Prime time classical TV 00:00
  7. 7. Experts Potential Trial 7 Based on a large scaled survey (n: 577) …   Mass Market Potential ??????   No Willingness-to-pay for a separate device, max. €10 for the service   But … in-house coverage crucial !   Who? Mobile Generation & Heavy viewers traditional tv Dual profile: ‘older’ busy profile vs. young, plenty of time, lower educ. Information vs. entertainment seekers   When & Where? On the road (public transport (74%), car (57%)), waiting context (63%) & back-up TV at home (45%) + spare moments at work/home (57%) for EA   What Content? News & Information !   Why? Information update (54%) Leisure (19%), boredom (24%), background (3%)
  8. 8. Experts Potential Trial 8 Mass Market Potential? As promising as abroad? 2006
  9. 9. Experts Potential Trial 9 Mass Market Potential? As promising as abroad? No 17%
  10. 10. Experts Potential Trial 10 Mass Market Potential? As promising as abroad? No, but … Finland, 1 intention Q Flanders, 3 intention Q’s 2006: promising potential Modest Potential 2007: overestimation No Mass Market Potential 41% 17% 40% 1Q 3Q 1Q Potential in Finland = potential in Flanders?
  11. 11. Experts Potential Trial 11 What Content? News & information !   News & Info (24/7) !   Only wtp for News ?! ?!   Film? >< experts   Adult? ~   Mobile Specific Content not necessary to make Mobile TV extra appealing   Most interest in Personalized news (59%), Live Sport (42%) & Event TV (36%) + Interactive shows & BV-TV for early adopters
  12. 12. Experts Potential Trial 12 Based on the behaviour & experience of 30 trial users …   When? 2 peak moments for ‘heavy users’   Why? Update, time killing entertainment   What Content? News, sports, television games +Topical interest (BHV, StuBru, …)   Where? Home !   Pleasantly suprised about picture quality   Shift towards a slightly more positive attitude   Wtp: €11   Low added value perception (lack of content), exc. the most interested (heavy viewers) as complementary to traditional tv
  13. 13. Experts Potential Trial 13 When? Viewing pattern   Heavy viewers (2) > 20 usage moments during the two week test period   Medium viewers (13) 10-20 usage moments   Light viewers (15) < 10 usage moments
  14. 14. Experts Potential Trial 14 Where? At home, on the road, time killing … According to the experts … In the trial …
  15. 15. 15 Conclusion Mobile Television in Flanders, 2008, potential to be more than a hype?   Mass Market Potential? No, ca. 20% In house coverage! New peak moments, complementary to traditional viewing patters No willingness to invest in a separate personal mobile tv device Additional service on top of existing offerings?   Content? ‘Mobile specific content’ not necessary (Repurposed) News & Sport content & topical updating !   Consumer? Dual Profile ‘snacking entertainment opportunity’ for busy types ‘complementary info & entertainment service’ for young Heavy viewer, mobile tv as a complementarity to traditional tv

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