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2008 brokerage 07 adoption potential analysis [compatibility mode]
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2008 brokerage 07 adoption potential analysis [compatibility mode]

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  • 1. Adoption Potential Analysis Lieven De Marez IBBT-MICT-UGent
  • 2. Today’s Innovation Spiral Technology evolving at a dazzling speed, … intensified competition, … more innovations to distinguish themselves from competitors, … shortening product life cycles, … increased pressure on NPD processes & introduction strategies, … more failing innovations, …
  • 3. Adoption Potential Analysis: WHAT? ADOPTION POTENTIAL ANALYSIS & more accurate, please …
  • 4. Potential? BM? Configuration? Marketing? Adoption Potential Analysis: WHY? “ Het echte marktpotentieel zit bij die groep gebruikers die iets slomer is op gebied van nieuwe technologie. Vraag echter, is in welke mate er effectief een potentieel bestaat binnen die groep. Beide operatoren moeten dus een element naar voren brengen waarmee ze de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’ kunnen binnenhalen ” (DM, September 2005) “ … there is a increasing need for an ability to see the potential of technology concepts emerging in one’s own R&D lab and to know which direction to take them on the path of commercialization” (CES Las Vegas, January 2008) “… the key is to understand what it will take to close the gap between the visionary’s expectations and the early majority’s expectations, and to deliver on the early majority requirements at the right time. The goal is not to be the first in the absolute sense, but to be the first with the product that finally unlocks the mega-market” (Steve Jobs, 2001, introduction iPod)
  • 5. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? Is there any (mass market) potential for my innovation? ~Living Labs
  • 6. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? MADUF: Potential for Mobile TV in Flanders? Mobiele TV Vlaanderen (2007, N: 575) 50 45 40 35 30 25 17% 20 15 10 5 0 innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards Mobiele TV Vlaanderen 0,7 5,4 10,6 43,7 39,7
  • 7. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? MADUF (2007): Are we more accurate? Finland, 1 intention Q Flanders, 3 intention Q’s 2006: promising potential 2007: overestimation Modest Potential Mobiele TV Vlaanderen (2007, N: 575) 50 45 41% 40 35 17% 40% 30 25 1Q 20 3Q 1Q 15 10 5 0 innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards Mobiele TV Vlaanderen 0,7 5,4 10,6 43,7 39,7 Potential in Finland = potential in Flanders?
  • 8. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? Digital Television (2004): Are we more accurate? 2006: 140000 DTV segmentation forecast 40000 Belgacom Q1 08 + 100000 Telenet 40 35 Q3 06 30 1mio 25 (+882000) 20 15 300000 10 138000 5 0 innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards DTV 2004 2,3 14,7 35,6 20,9 21,1 Q3 05 Q1 06 Q1 08 Timing? +½ y +2 y ? ?
  • 9. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? Potential for Digital Television in Flanders (2004)? What if? VOD vs NVOD: Impact on adoption potential? 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 INN EA EM LM LAGG & NVOD 0,6 6,2 44,7 31,8 17,8 & VOD 2,3 14,7 35,6 20,9 26,3
  • 10. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? Romas (2006): Potential for Mobile News in Flanders? What if? Flat fee vs Free: Impact on adoption potential? Adoption Potential Mobile News 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards Paid 2,6 14,9 24,2 35,7 8,9 Free 10,8 37,5 15,2 18,6 4,5
  • 11. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? What is the best product configuration to maximize on that potential?
  • 12. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? eHUB EU vs US: potential ok, but which of 6 concepts and with what configuration?
  • 13. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? e.g. eHUB: 16 features & specs, …. What if HDcapacity is 120GB instead of 60GB, & CD Ripping at 24x instead of 12x, and wireless connection to all devices in the home: Impact on adoption potential? 35 Audio Center 35 Media Center 30 30 Willingness to pay €959 €529 25 Willingness to pay €559 25 €889 Connectivity Wired / Wireless Wired / Wireless Connectivity Wired / Wireless Wired / Wireless 20 20 HD Capacity 40 / 80 / 120 GB 40 / 80 / 120 GB HD Capacity 250 / 350 / 500 GB 250 / 350 / 500 GB 15 CD Ripping 8x / 12x /15 24x 8x / 12x / 24x CD Ripping 8x / 12x / 24x 8x / 12x / 24x CD Burning Y/N Y/N 10 Memory card slot … Y/N 10 Y/N Digital photo display Y/N Y/N 5 Moviebeam service … Y/N 5 Y/N Internet radio Y/N Y/N VOD + ppmovie Y / N + €2.95 Y / N + €1.95 0 0 INN … EA EM LM LAGG INN EA EM LM LAGG US 20,6 … 25,8 28,5 11 3,8 US 19,7 29,8 31,7 12,1 8,1 EU 4,1 18,5 25,4 26,2 18,7 12,1 29,5 26,4 16,3 14,7 EU
  • 14. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? How to introduce my innovation to maximize on that potential?
  • 15. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? DTV (2004): How to cross ‘the chasm’? “Het echte marktpotentieel zit bij de groep gebruikers die iets slomer is op gebied van nieuwe technologie. Beide operatoren moeten dus een element naar voren brengen waarmee ze de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’ kunnen binnenhalen.” ( “Telenet en BelgacomTV strijden om de ‘early adopter’. De eerste is de beste klant.” – DM 030905)
  • 16. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? DTV (2004): How to cross ‘the chasm’? Family context Busy households Comfort offer no wtp for voetbal Young, male Internet on tv soccer ”Het echte marktpotentieel zit bij de groep gebruikers die iets slomer is op gebied van nieuwe technologie. Beide operatoren moeten dus een element naar voren brengen waarmee ze de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’ kunnen binnenhalen.”
  • 17. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? Broadband (2004): Acquisition Segmentation? Penetration on moment of research ADSL (medio 2003) Cable K M L Tot K 21% 29% 50% 100% M 19% 26% 55% 100% L 8% 28% 64% 100% 45,0% 40,0% 35,0% ADSL 30,0% Kabel 25,0% ADSL 20,0% ZK K M L Lag 15,0% ZK Q1 10,0% K Q2 5,0% Cable M Q3 0,0% L Zeer Kort Kort Middellang Lang Lag./OoP ADSL 2,6% 10,2% 27,7% 41,1% 18,4% Lag Kabel 2,8% 9,9% 26,4% 40,9% 20,1% K M L
  • 18. Potential? Configuration? Marketing? Broadband (2004): Acquisition Segmentation? Q1 Q2 Q3 Speed x x Price x x Ease of Installation/comfort x x Varied offering x x Betrouwbaar x x x Betrouwbaar + Gevest Medio 2003 Motivator Belga Behulpzaam Q1 x x x Kwaliteitsgericht Q2 x x Q3 Speed ito Mb/s Onzekere financiële toe Speed-ad Verantwoordelijk x x x 2005/6 Market not ready + strong price Demotivator Te Stimulerend Skate- Skate-ramp + (x) internet free x promotions, Geeft voldoeninginstallation at xlessons x Speed ito Mb/s Cars home + image Market ready Opinion leaders bewerken
  • 19. Adoption potential analysis one IBBT - excellence: answering questions regarding … The potential of your innovation The ideal product configuration to harvest that potential The ideal introduction strategy for your innovation … and being a complementary building block for other IBBT excellences e.g. potential estimates for Business Modelling (e.g. MADUF ~VRT, SMIT) e.g. user expectations for product and network configuration (e.g. WiCa, CUO) e.g. valorisation … … resulting in a truly user-driven and interdisciplinary NPD process & more effective and successful innovation processes