Wi Max Lte Tribal Presentation.


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Choices --- LTE or WiMAX

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Wi Max Lte Tribal Presentation.

  1. 1. 1 Your Network IS your Competitive Advantage! Making the RIGHT Choices is Imperative for Success! Ian Lenathen VP Sales and Business Development Nexus Communications Ltd. © Nexus Communications – Ian Lenathen 1 We all know that subscribers want a Broadband Connection and they want it everywhere. Incumbent Operators are holding strategic sessions – the Executives, the Engineers and the Market-ears on the smartest way to extend their networks, to provide the best service and the greatest ARPU possible against increasing competitive threats and innovations. New competitors are using leap frog technologies which are not connected to a drag anchor of legacy assets slowing them down or causing them regulatory pause… Their strategy sessions are about how to by-pass every aspect of the incumbents network where both Broadband and VoIP are ubiquitous immediate. The networks are mixed with technologies and inertias and speeds and feeds and circuits and packets and spectrums and vendors… planned and built on various and sundry Processes … All of this brings CHOICES… and the choices made yesterday effect who and what you are today --- the choices made today… will dictate your future success!
  2. 2. 2 At Nexus Communications we believe your Network is your greatest competitive advantage and making the right choices is Imperative to your success! In the words of Homer --- Choose Well! This presentation looks at the choices facing operators today WHICH WILL DETERMINE THEIR SUCCESS TOMORROW. Wired or Wireless? Mobile or Fixed? GSM or CDMA? Roadmaps from 3G to 4G… LTE or WiMAX? CHOICES – CHOICES – CHOICES ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mobile Telephony Growth – Wireless and Broadband 1990 - 11 Million Subs 2005 - 2 Billion Subs Millions Voice and Data 2,600 CEL Standards Based 2,400 Internet Mobile Subs 1990 – 1 Million Subs 2,200 CHOICE of 2005 – 1 Billion Subs IP Standard Based 2,000 Market 1,800 Leading Inertia Broadband Access 1,400 Mobile - Wireless – Internet Subs Edge, EVDO, HSDPA, 1,200 LTE Internet - Wireline and 1,000 Wireless – DSL, Cable Modem, Proprietary 800 Wireless, WiMAX. 600 Broadband Subs WiMAX Growth --- 133 400 Million Subs – 500 Operators by 2012 200 WiMAX Subs Subs Year 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 © Nexus Communications – Ian Lenathen This chart is almost as busy as we are!
  3. 3. 3 But it shows the story of one of the choice influencers and that is the story of MARKET PLACE INERTIA. Inertia can be a good thing or a bad thing depending on what side of the curve you are on. It is easy to read – the faster you are climbing the “Y” Axis the greater your Inertia. In this case if you are riding high on a current business case with an evolved solution and billions of users… you might almost feel invincible… and you are probably a Mobile Service Provider… and if you are really good, you are probably a GSM Mobile Service Provider… Mobile subs will number over 3 Billion Users now or very soon (depending on whom you listen to) and this will increase to over 5 Billion users or devices by 2013. Currently about 70% of these devices use GSM as the base technology and this is growing… The force is with them and the MARKET INERTIA is Great! The next best climber on the “Y” axis is the number of Internet Subs… also moving exponentially – to over 2 Billion users at the end of this year… Obviously the Inertia l effect shows us that the most popular choices people are making today involve Cell Phones and Internet! Broadband Users represent the next best climber --- moving exponentially using Wireline DSLAM’s, Fixed Wireless Proprietary and WiMAX, Mobile GSM and CDMA, and Mobile WiMAX… Everybody wants BROADBAND, and to the ones providing it, it has to be delivered under $500 US per subscriber --- the more under $500 the better the case. In fact $500 seems is the Worst Case condition. But on the chart – look at the WiMAX Inertia… We will have fewer than 150 Million WiMAX subscribers delivered from about 500 providers worldwide by 2011… I have drawn this chart to scale so the Inertial effects are obvious… showing where the market is going… In my humble opinion WiMAX will have a greater challenge overcoming the Mobile (LTE) Inertia and we have not even talked about the hand held multimedia device Inertia in both technology ecosystems. This is not to say that WiMAX is not an important technology – It will be deployed and in my opinion as a NICHE MARKET Solution --- there is nothing wrong with a GOOD NICHE MARKET!
  4. 4. 4 Speed MOBILE VOICE MOBILE BROADBAND 1gbs LTE = IP + Data Centric + OFDMA +MIMO LTE WiMAX = IP + Data Centric + OFDMA + MIMO Mobile WiMAX 100mbs 16 m HSPA+ UMB Mobile WiMAX HSUPA 10mbs 16 2005 HSDPA 1xEVDO B HSPA 1xEVDO A 1mbs EDGE Fixed/Nomadic UMTS 1xEVDO 0 WiMAX 16 2004 100kbs GSM W-CDMA GPRS CHOICE of Access Technology – CDMA Towards LTE or WiMAX, Wireline 2000 10kbs CDMA Ethernet or Proprietary Orphan 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 © Nexus Communications – Ian Lenathen Acronym Soup 3 So we have shown the choice based on Market Inertia --- now let’s look at the CHOICE of ACCESS TECHNOLOGIES. This chart is busier than most of us, but there is no other way for me to show it. It is an ACRONYM SOUP and some people have built their careers serving Acronym soup to the rest of us… I admit I sometimes I do forget what the acronym means yet I do know what it is… I think… In the final analysis --- acronyms are TRIBAL things --- We know the Tribe you belong to by the Acronyms you use! This chart shows the language of 4 tribes and if you look around you will see members of each tribe sitting here! There is the CDMA TRIBE, The GSM (LTE) TRIBE, the WiMAX Tribe and that
  5. 5. 5 other not thought about too often, show off type of tribe - the Ethernet Tribe… they are all potential Cannibals! The GSM Tribe, think the CDMA tribe are a dying breed and they sometimes laugh at them… The CDMA Acronym chant is… CDMA 2000 1xEVDO (A), 1xEVDO (b) – UMB --- oops not UMB no more… QUALCOMM stopped the development of Ultra-Mobile Broadband last November --- in effect they ran to the GSM tribe not wanting to be on the side of the losing CHOICE… and wanting to influence the decisions made to ensure the royalty checks keep coming. The GSM Mantra is GPRS, UMTS, EDGE, HSPA, HSPDA, HSUPA, HSUPA+ and finally the golden grail itself --- LTE! Long Term Evolution is the endgame. Surely this will be the tribe ending up with the most coconuts! This is not well known, but I have heard leaders of the LTE Tribe don’t think of LTE as Long Term Evolution – they really think of it as… Let’s Take Everything! To show the seriousness of CHOICE we can look at a case currently happening in CANADA – where a few years ago Bell and Telus chose CDMA, which seemed a good choice at the time based on a solid Nortel product plan… the technology was superior. Rogers working with Ericsson chose GSM, and to this day ROGER’s CTO is treated somewhat like a God --- for making the RIGHT choice! Bell and Telus are now spending about $1 Billion dollars to build a GSM based network, like the Rogers Network across Canada. Rogers is the only game in town for multi-media Mobile devices like the iPhone… Bell and Telus are not amused! As can be seen on the chart, the CDMA tribe does not have a path to LTE… IMHO, they will become an orphan technology and eventually will go the way of the Floppy Disk… there may be some around here and there but most people will not be using it any more. The WiMAX guys are newer to the jungle. The WiMAX sales force, usually mention they are Data Centric --- IP all the way and based on STANDARDS… where iNTEROPERABILITY between Vendors becomes an advantage for the SUBSCRIBER and the OPERATORS. WiMAX has three Acronym mantras --- 16(d), 16(e) and 16(m)… WiMAX is a great technology… and I saw this for myself about a month ago in Toronto where I was in a van with 4 LCD screens built in… each a separate virtual computer or TV… as the van was driven (by a driver who was not allowed to have an LCD screen like the rest of us) at 120km/h, me and three others, were individually watching live - Real Time TV programs like HBO or Oprah, while making a Skype Call, then bringing in SLING and watching a foreign program like the NEWS in Japan! The technology was Motorola 2.5GHz WiMAX 16e with 10MHz of Spectrum. And we did a successful seamless hand off while moving at that speed.
  6. 6. 6 This demonstration proved to me that the tribal war has nothing to do with Technology… I am a technology whore and believe me when I say this technology is beautiful --- It will not be commercialized soon though because the tribal wars are all about Business Cases… and in my humble opinion, the WiMAX tribe will not be able to cannibalize the GSM tribe because the GSM Business case is humming along and making too much money for the Mobile Service Providers… If you are a Star Trek fan and a good observer of human nature, you may see that most people belonging to the GSM tribe look like and talk like Ferengi! It’s all about PROFIT! The winning Business Case at the moment is being executed by the Mobile Service Providers… they want nothing to do with WiMAX, since it is a game changing technology which would only cannibalize the current case. Who cares if it is based on a STANDARD which will provide a better deal for the subscribers since they will be able to use one CPE device on multiple networks around the world? While WiMAX is an excellent technology, it is a cannibal business case unless we are talking about unserved or underserved areas… where WiMAX will provide an excellent solution… Right now it is a Niche Market solution and in my humble opinion may remain just that… but very good ROI can be made in a healthy Niche market. It does not surprise me that Ericsson wants nothing to do with WiMAX --- Why cannibalize a good case. The LTE tribe may also be pulling a bit of a fast one on us… have you noticed LTE and WiMAX 16(m) look very much alike, having common technology platform components --- LTE is IP Based, Packet Centric, OFDMA Based and MIMO based --- WiMAX(m) is IP Based, Packet Centric, OFDMA Based and MIMO Based. Both are 4 G (Whiz) solutions – meaning they will deliver over 100Mb/s over the air… and it is expected over the air speeds greater than 1Gb/s will be achieved in the next few years. Could it be the GSM Tribe have seen great merit in the technology attributes of WiMAX, but could never call LTE a WiMAX solution? Both ways the technology platforms for LTE and WiMAX will have common technology attributes… and there still can be a choice for the subscriber.
  7. 7. 7 Some analysts portray the future of WiMAX and LTE to be shared --- where one Hardware Platform will be able to emulate either the LTE Protocol or the WiMAX protocol – where subscribers will have a choice of standard devices based on IEEE or proprietary extensions based on ITU. In my humble opinion, the LTE tribe have looked at WiMAX technology and realized how good it actually is… They could not come out and say to the world the GSM tribe was inferior, but they did make sure their LTE solution had converging technology which looks a lot like WiMAX… Hey I am just writing out loud here… it may all be just a coincidence. The main message here is that LTE and WiMAX are becoming converged technologies – CDMA is becoming an orphan. I will not talk about the multi- G/bps Wireline Ethernet tribe except to say that some good poetic engineers believe the wireless speeds will eventually meet the Wireline speeds… probably around CANTO’s 40th anniversary… If this happens please attribute this prediction to me… if it does not happen, forget that I even mentioned it!
  8. 8. 8 Choice of Switching Technology Voice Video Email IP www MMS VoIP Peer to Peer Alexander Graham Bell Streaming Leonard Kleinrock (Average Brilliant Scot) Gaming (MIT PhD) Father of the need for Voice Centric Circuit IPTV Father of the need for Switch Data Centric Packet IPVAS Switch 4 © Nexus Communications – Ian Lenathen This is not a busy slide and simply shows the two faces of SWITCHING TECHNOLOGIES --- this is a no brainer… Alexander Graham Bell’s idea of CIRCUIT SWITCHED VOICE has served us for over 100 years… Leonard Kleinrock’s idea about Packet Switching will probably serve us for the next 50 or so. The choice here is CLEAR… Packet Switching in the entire network from ACCESS TO CORE is the only way to go. For those in the room still encumbered by legacy Voice Switched TDM big iron --- if I had time I would propose a minute of silence for the demise of your business case… The choice is to move to an NGN and NGM mind set --- Packets everywhere and IP under everything.
  9. 9. 9 Choice of Spectrum GSM & W-CDMA CDMA2000 Pre WiMAX and WiMAX • 900MHz Cellular • 850 MHz US • 700MHz Band Cellular Band •1.5 GHz • 1800 MHz DCS • 1900 MHz PCS Band • 2.3 GHz Band • 2100 MHz IMT- • 2.5 GHz • 2100 MHz IMT- 2000 Band 2000 Band • 3.5 GHz • 900 MHz E-GSM • 450 MHz NMT • 3.65 GHz Band Band • 4.9 GHz • 5.8 GHz 5 © Nexus Communications – Ian Lenathen Wireless Technology Choices involve SPECTRUM! This chart shows the spectrum usually associated with the GSM and CDMA Mobile Operators and spectrum sought after in WiMAX deployments. The granting of licensed spectrum is usually facilitated by Auctions – some auctions have raised billions of dollars for the governments and the cost of the spectrum to the operators must be added to the bottom line cost in the business case. Having the license for good spectrum is definitely a competitive advantage and much time and effort is spent ensuring a winning strategy at the best price is put forward. Legacy systems often involve non-licensed solutions in the 900, 2400 or 5800 MHz bands… these are, in most locations, a crowded space… with other competitors using the same frequency plan… DIFFERENCIATION in this case usually involves the proprietary Vendor chosen. The right CHOICE of Spectrum is CRITICAL to future success… and the choice of the Vendor equipment chosen to deploy that spectrum is also a CRITICAL decision.
  10. 10. 10 Copyright - Nexus Communications - Ian Lenathen Choice of Vendors Billing WiMAX CORE Network IP VoIP Soft Switch RF Planning Integrators Customer Advocate Consultants © Nexus Communications – Ian Lenathen The choice of VENDORS is next… Vendors are biased to their own solutions and that is the way it should be. Vendors are also mostly concerned with their part of the solution… and in some cases end-to- end considerations or conflicts are left to the OPERATOR. Experience shows it is easy to underestimate the end-to-end challenges involved in the deployment of a multi-vendor solution. Of course the integration of Billing and ARPU gaining Value Added Services Platform vendors are also in the mix. The Unbiased Choice of Vendor is a key to future success.
  11. 11. 11 PLAN EVALUATE EXECUTE Technology Field Trials/Captive Lab Trials Site Survey • GSM/CDMA • Short List •Coverage • WiMAX RFI/RFP/RFQ Issue and Response • Interference • Proprietary Evaluation • Placement • Core IP • Vendor List/Requirements Installation Technical Evaluation Services • Craft Training • Voice • Product • Power and Ground • Internet • Services • Base Station • IPTV • Road Maps • CPE Radio Frequency Vendor Business Case Integration • Spectrum • CAPEX/OPEX • Site’ Availability • ROI • Backhaul • Gov’t Petition • Risk Assessment • NMS/NOC/Billing Backhaul Commercial T’s and C’s Acceptance Test • Access Product Comparison Matrix • Drive Test • Build Total Cost of Ownership • Integration Test Deployment/Time to Short List – Final Selection Customer Migration Market • Fixed/Nomadic Choice of Process © Nexus Communications – Ian Lenathen • Mobile The choice of a best practice Process in the deployment of your network or in the upgrading of your network assets is also critical to success. Due to time considerations I will not go into great details here but let me say the choice of Process is fundamental and key to your success. Look onto our web site www.nexus-communications.com or drop me a line at ian@nexus- communications.com if you would like to explore further.
  12. 12. 12 “Choose well!” - Homer Caribbean Basin Network Providers – whether working in a “Greenfield” new competitor or a mature incumbent environment, must make the right strategic decisions ensuring their deployed network is able to meet the competitive pressures of future. A “Mind-Wide-Open” approach using non-biased highly professional Customer Advocate Consultants will diminish Risk and Increase your future success. 8 © Nexus Communications – Ian Lenathen Thank You Ian Lenathen VP Sales and Business Development Nexus Communications Ltd www.nexus-communications.com ian@nexus-communications.com © Nexus Communications – Ian Lenathen 9