L. Hunter Lovins delivered the keynote address at the Iowa Environmental Council's annual conference, "Finding Iowa's Way: Economic Solutions for a Healthier Environment," held October 4, 2012, in Des Moines.
Global Drivers of Change • Loss of ecosystem services • Carbon constrained world • Economic instability • Volatile energy prices • Vulnerabilities • Chindia • The sustainability imperative • Water • Food
New RuleIf we insist on ruining the planet, we have to stop claiming we’re a “superior species”.
Nov 2011 study from IEAApril 2012 study from OECD“Unless world leaders take immediateand coordinated action, modern industrywill lock the world into a calamitoustemperature rise of up to six degrees C.In such a world, demand for energy, food,and water will overwhelm the planet”
Last year, a new record: 14 weather relateddisasters with damages over $1 billion.
Hot enough for you? Iowa is experiencing first handwhy America’s decade of ignoring climate science is amistake.Unless Iowa acts to capture the green economy, itfaces a grim prospect, both from the weather and froman economy strangled by its fossil fuel past.
Iowa Ground Central60% of the state is inextreme drought.80% of soil ismoisture-deficient.Bushel of corn hasrisen from $5.50 to $8.
Climate Change ImpactsU.S. corn production isdown 13%.USDA predicts 3-10 %increase in all foodprices.Will cost $600 more forthe same food purchasedthis year, for a family offour.
Commodity price increasesCredit Suisse estimates that commodityprices will increase 5% - 20% in the secondhalf of 2012Every 1¢ rise in the price of gasoline =$1billion lost in household purchasing powerWhat will this do to your business?
Food and Water Scarcity1/3 of the worlds cropland is losing its productivitybecause it is losing its topsoil More than 33 countries face social unrest due to record high food prices.
A single fracking well uses up to 5 million gallons of water
Iowa Ground CentralSevere precipitationevents have increased32% since 1960’s.A 20% increase inprecipitation increasessoil erosion by 40%, ifnot properly managed.
Iowa Ground Central2008 flood, the City ofCedar Rapids had topump raw sewage intoCedar River.Cedar Rapids was notthe only city forced toclose wastewateroperations.
Agriculture = Water IntensiveAgricultureuses 70% ofworld waterwithdrawalsCompetitionfor waterresources isincreasing
Agriculture = Polluting• According to the EPA, agricultural practices are responsible for 70% of all pollution in U.S. rivers and streams.• In the US, 40% of rivers, lakes, and coastal waters are so contaminated that they are unfit for humans to fish in, swim in, or drink.
Agriculture = Energy IntensiveIn 1940 we produced 2.3calories of food energyfor every calorie of fossilfuel energy we used.Now it takes 10 caloriesof fossil-fuel energy toproduce a single calorieof modern supermarketfood
2012 had over 2,000 record- shattering heat eventsEvery state in the nation experienced a record warm daily temperature
Feb 2012 the UN released Resilient People,Resilient Planet: A future worth choosingThe 22-member panel said a new blueprint forgrowth and low-carbon prosperity must be"mainstreamed" into economic policy asquickly as possibleBy 2030 the planet will need at least50% more food,45% more energy and30% more water.
The science does not matter Let’s assume that the climate sceptics are right Don’t go to the casino on those odds If all that you care about is maximizing profit, you will do exactly what you would do if you were scared to death about climate
McKinsey Curve$30 – 40 million available below the line savings per company
The Carbon Disclosure ProjectInstitutional investors -$78 trillion assetsPushing FTSE top 500companies todisclose “investment-related”GHG emissions6% of leading companies deselectsuppliers who fail to manage carbon,56% commit to do so in the future
6,300 computers and monitors in sleep or standby modewhen not in use (24/7).Leave machines on one evening a week for updates andturn them off at the end of the work day: $700,000.US companies waste $2.8 billion a year on 108 millionunused PCs. In 2009, these unused PCs will emit 20million tons of carbon dioxide emissions – the impact of4 million cars.PC power costs are the largest single factor of IT energycosts and can account for a quarter of the costs in amodern office building.
“Ford Saves One Million Dollars...By Shutting Off Computers” Fast Company, 23 March 2010 Turning off one computer every night for a year saves $34 If 20 computers are left on in the evening and over the weekend, the savings grow to $526 a year
7M square feet DC with 500 Watt roof lightsevenly spaced every 10 feet. Half the floorspace was racks with boxes.Most of this lighting waseither unnecessary orredundant. Work areashad task lighting at theemployee level.Annual savings forshutting off the lights...$650,000.
Economic Realities:Saving energy strengthens the entire economy
Green buildings improve labor productivity and worker health Improving indoor air quality could save U.S. businesses:• $58 billion in avoided sick time each year,• Another $200 billion earned in increased worker performance.
Comparative Costsin Large Office BuildingsData from Building Owners and Managers Association: Electric Powerresearch Institute, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1991
Carbon War RoomPartnership between Lockheed Martin, Energi,Barclays, and Ygrene to retrofit commercial real estate.Will return $4 million in tax revenues for every $1 million$10 million in economic activity generated and 60 jobscreated.The $650 million program will bring its first two cities:Sacramento and Miami 40,000 jobs created, $1 billion intax benefits, and at least $10 billion in increasedeconomic outputWill scale across US, as well as China.
Renewable GenerationEnvironment Iowa has shown how the state, now 85%dependent on coal energy imported from out of towncould provide 100% of its needs from renewable Iowapower, keeping jobs and money here.
Solar deployment – policy mattersCalifornia receives70% more sunlightfor producing solarenergy thanGermany.But Germanyinstalls 28 timesmore solar electriccapacity every yearWill be 100%renewable by 2050
The Economics of Feed-in TariffsDeutsche Bank Study: FiTs gave Germany the lead in renewable energy production.In first 4 years FiTs created 300,000 new jobsFITs cut the unit cost of solar panels 30 percent in 2009 enough that they could pay for themselves within five to seven years, and reach grid parity (costing the same as grid electricity) by 2013.
FiTs drove German economic regeneration, enabling Germany to pay its own citizens to produce, install and maintain their own renewable energy systems, instead of buying imported fossil fuels. The program cost of €2 - 3 per month ($50 to customers’ electricity bills each year) to electricity bills in Germany (a total of €8.6 billion.)Deutsche Bank: The savings created by FiTs exceeded total cost of payments made by households.Had customers bought electricity from conventional generation and paid the costs of fossil fuel generation Germans would have paid over €9.4 billion.
Iowa Leading the WayIowa is a National Leader in Renewable Energy• 20% of energy from sun, wind, and biofuels• 200 wind companies with 7,000 full-time jobs The Green Economy Unleashed • By 2020: • Create 20,000 new jobs • Save consumers $1 billion annually
Renewable Benefits + Jobs + +$Iowa’s renewable resources could provide 17 timesmore energy than the state needsIt would help the average Iowa family save $400It would create at least 3,000 new jobs each year!
Jobs GrowthSince 2006 jobs in renewables and environmenthave grown 56.8% vs Internet: 29.8%Californias “green economy" grew 3X as fast astraditional economy between 2008 and 2009 –174,000 employed in green economy – 26% aremanufacturing jobs vs 9% in total economy.In US green jobs grew 9.1% 1998 – 2007, 2 ½ Xfaster than all job growth.
Early stage companies are theeconomic future of the US.Kauffman research shows that startupsare responsible for:• Almost all net job growth in the U.S.economy for all but 7 years – from 1977to now• The top 1% of highest growth startupsgenerate almost 10% of all new jobs
Sonoma County Energy Independence Program8.4% increase in construction-related jobs inSonoma County between January, 2009 andSeptember, 2009 3.0% job decline in Napa County July-August 2009: $5.6 million in SCEIP projects 500 new construction jobs reported
Dardesheim, Germany - 100% renewableWildpoldsried produces321% more energy than ituses; makes $5.7 millioneach year
1 MW/ week = 15.6 GW In 2010 – 21 GW 2011SCE: 250 MW plant on roofs around So California$875 million to complete (comparable coal plant ~$800 million)
Wind is the 2nd fastest growingenergy supply technology in theworld:37 GW in 2009, 32 GW 2010Now 237 GW, 40 GW new 2011Costs less than coal in good sites And check out China
China has replaced • If China’s economythe United States as grows at its prior ratethe worlds leading • If it uses resources asconsumer of most inefficiently as the U.S.basic commodities, • By 2030 China will needlike oil, grain, coal, 99 million barrels of oil aand steel. day. The world currently produces 80+ million barrels per day and may never produce more.
China Renewable Investments• China’s State Administration of Energy (SAE), is creating a new energy blueprint• Total investments for renewable energy by 2020 – $911 billion for efficiency and renewables – 10.6b million new jobs – Generate several trillion dollars in new GDP
Rise of Solar in ChinaChina accounted for China’s efforts tohalf of the worlds dominate renewableproduction in solar energy technologies raise the prospect thatenergy. the West may someday trade its dependenceProducing panels as on oil from the Mideastlow as $1.04 a watt. for a reliance on solar panels, wind turbines and other gear manufactured in China.
Rizhao, China City of 3 million – 99% use solar hot water 5,000 manufacturers of simple solar water heaters Now looking at export
Baoding, China Mayor Yu Quin: “Polluting first and cleaning up later is very expensive. So we chose renewable energy to replace traditional industry.” 200 renewable energy companies replace cars and textiles
R. James Woolsey’s solarpowered plug-in-hybridhas a bumper stickerreading:“Osama bin Ladin hatesmy car.”
Fragile supply lines – for every 24 convoys amarine comes home in a body bag Military uses 10.6 million gallons/day Largest fuel user in the world
Great Green FleetNavy Secretary Ray Mabus: "We simply have tofigure out a way to get American-made, home-grownfuel that is stably priced, that is competitive with oil," Deploy a biofuel-burning carrierMH-60 chopper flying group by 2016 and require theon 50-50 algae/ grease Department of the Navy to get halfbiofuel and petroleum of its energy from alternativefuel sources by 2020.
USS Ford frigate used 25,000 gallons to sail 12,000 miles from Everett Wash to San Diego – no difference in performance Solyazyme and Dynamic Fuels
F-18 Green Hornet flying on Sustainable Fuels’ oil seed fuel/ jet fuel mix – 60 – 75 million barrels of jet fuel/ year
European/Middle East Smartgrid Power equal to the total present usage of the EUMENA region power could be generated covering less than 0.3% of the Sahara Desert with CSP plants. DESERTEC Foundation proposes a supergrid from Iceland to Arabian peninsula, from Baltic to west coast of Africa, in which offshore wind and wave farms, photovoltaic sites, tidal stream generators, biomass, geothermal and hydroelectric stations would unite with desert CSP arrays to meet the regions actual daily and hourly demands over an HVDC network
“By the way, in 2011, GEs wind turbines achieved REless than C for the first time. It really happened. Now were designing super efficient and flexible combined cycle gas turbines that will compliment renewable intermittency, while we work on energy storage technologies. Solar is next...”
Ray Anderson What is the business case for ending life on earth?
Interface "Mission Zero"Metrics-Net GHG emissions down 82% in absolute tonage- Fossil fuel usage is down 60%- Water usage is down 75%- Renewables and recycled materials up 25%- Renewable energy is up 27%- Diverted 74,000 tons of used carpet from landfills- Goal: 0 impact, 0 footprint - ½ way to goal today. Anticipate will make goal in 2020. Best thing for business: Costs down $4.5M Sales increased by 2/3 Profits up 2X- Paid for all costs for transformation of Interface.
Harvard Business Review“Sustainability isn’t the burden on bottom linesthat many executives believe it to be. It canlower your costs and increase your revenues.That’s why sustainability should be atouchstone for all innovation.In the future, only companies that makesustainability a goal will achieve competitiveadvantage. That means rethinking businessmodels as well as products, technologies andprocesses.” Why Sustainability is Now the Key Driver of Innovation
Sustainability paysCompanies in the Dow Jones sustainability Index outperform the general marketGoldman Sachs report July 2007: Companies that are leaders in environmental, social and governance (ESG) policies outperform competitors in stock performance—by an average of 25%.72% of the companies on the DJSI outperformed industry peers
Refusal to report quarterly The ultimate cost of short-termism was thefinancial crisis of 2008-9. Too manyinvestors have become short-term gamblers:the more fluctuations in share price they canengineer, the better it is for them. It is notgood for the companies or for society, but itis influencing the way firms are being run, allthe same.... To drag the world back to sanity,we need to know why we are here. Theanswer is: for consumers, not shareholders.If we are in synch with consumer needs andthe environment in which we operate, andtake responsibility for society as well as forour employees, then the shareholder will Paul Polmanalso be rewarded
Unilever’sSustainable Living Plan: Cut environmental impacts in half by 2020, Source 100% of agricultural materials sustainably, and Help more than 1billion people improve their health and well- being.
Sustainable Agriculture • Build healthy topsoil • Minimize use of fossil fuels • Plant crops suitable to local climate • Use a whole systems approach to farm management
Top Menu Trends of 2012Survey by The National Restaurant Association#1 Locally sourced meats and seafood#2 Locally grown produce#4 Hyper-local sourcing#5 Sustainability#8 Locally produced wine and beer#12 Farm/estate-branded ingredients
Carbon Innovators LeadCompanies that lead in climate-related innovation givehigher financial performance (five-year return on equity)Three indexes identified the most resilient, mostinnovative and best positioned companies to gaincompetitive advantage in the new low-carbon economyRanking the top 350 US companies, with a combinedmarket cap of $350 trillion, on their climate innovationand carbon management programmes, shows a positivecorrelation between the financial performance ofcompanies and their ability to successfully implementdisruptive market innovations related to climate change.
In nature carbon is not the world’s greatest poison
Calera Calera is piloting making cement in the same way that coral reefs make limestone: CO2 and seawater. Carbon negative process. Vinod Khosla is a lead investor
Americans buy more than 9 billion bottles of water a year
Method is making its bottles out of recycled plastic – 25% of it harvested from the oceans
Synthetic biology could create buildings that inhale carbondioxide, and control temperature without air conditioning –Dr Rachel Armstrong, senior TED Fellow, Director of Avatar
I am a professor of a disciplinethat did not exist when I went tocollege
Change is hardMargaret Mead said the only person who likes change is a wet baby
The best way to predict thefuture is to invent it
His goal:To make the world workfor 100% of humanity, inthe shortest possible time,through spontaneouscooperation withoutecological offense ordisadvantage of anyone.”
The rule of no realm is mine but all worthy things that are inperil as the world now stands, those are my care. And for mypart I shall not wholly fail if anything passes through this night that can still grow fair and bear fruit and flower again in the days to come. For I too am a steward, did you not know?
In the end, it was two rather ordinary, playful,unassuming hobbits who undertook to save the world.Despite their fears, they took the future of the world on their shoulders, and all the wizards and kings and warriors could only play a supportive role.
Real leadership is extraordinary courage by ordinary people
Natural Capitalism Solutions L O N G M O N T, COLORADO www.natcapsolutions.org
500,000 refugees18 million at risk of starvation 91
Shai AgassiBetter Place –renewable electriccars
DONG energy and Better Place $12,000 for a family-sized all- electric sedan: Renault Fluence EV. Drive as much as you want. Pay $300/ month (less if you drive fewer miles). Emit no CO2 or other pollutants. And help the world break its addiction to oil Better Place has ordered 100,000 cars from Renault. Agassi plans to order another 100,000 cars in the first half of 2012. Agassi has agreements with governments to roll out Better Place in northern California, in the urban regions of Australia and in Hawaii. France, too, has made a major commitment to electric vehicles, one reason why Renault says it will launch four electric car models in the next several years.
Creating theMadroneProjectDigital sustainability education, curated fordigital media and the modern attention spanA rigorous, modular curriculum designed by your passion
Math is the low hanging fruit of online education Advanced Linear chains of Food Chain of Topics knowledgeConstant over time Basic
Hundreds of Topics for ‘Micro-Lesson’ Nodes – 12-15 min advanced / research / just plain core principles / foundations interesting case studies
Online Sustainability Education is a Different Beast (interdisciplinary, dynamic, ecology of knowledge) Sustainable Ci8es Advanced Sustainable Well Being Human microbiome and virome Buildiing Design and Human Health Carbon Nega8ve Blgs and Houses Made of Food Web of Topics Meat RooBop Farming RooBop Biodiversity Systems Theory Principles Scaling Theory of Sustainable Ci8es Climate Capitalism Principles Natural Capitalism Principles Eﬃciency Principles Redesigning Manufacturing Principles Complexity Theory Principles Network Theory Principles Art and Innova8on Emergence in Complex Systems Economic Complexity and Sustainable Growth Biomimicry Principles Math Lessons for Locavores What is Sustainability Sustainable Building Design Principles Global Homogeniza8on Jevons Eﬃciency Paradox Art and Urban Renewal the Crea8ve Class New Metrics for Sustainable Economies Basic Mul8Family Housing Crea8ve Green Mobility Crowd Sharing
Oceans 2 degrees from coral reefs Other Tracks Calera – cement from CO2 Coral reefs Climate Change bleaching Network Structure of Classes Stimulates Large Node = Many Links Cross-disciplinary Thinking
Join the conversation online:facebook.com/madroneprojectTwitter.com/madroneprojectWhat do you want to know?What do you want to study?
Sustainable AgricultureIn 1940 we produced 2.3calories of food energyfor every calorie of fossilfuel energy we used.Now it takes 10 caloriesof fossil-fuel energy toproduce a single calorieof modern supermarketfood
UnSustainable AgricultureThe production,manufacture, andtransport of syntheticfertilizers is the largestagricultural energy useRepresenting on average38%, but up to as high as50% of energy use
Sustainable AgricultureThe overall resourceefficiency of ourfarming operations hasdecreased even whilewe have producedmore food.What would asustainable agriculturesystem look like?
Sustainable Agriculture • Build healthy topsoil • Minimize use of fossil fuels • Plant crops suitable to local climate • Use a whole systems approach to farm management
Economic Recovery"Agriculture is the foundation onwhich recovery from the global recessionand financial and food price crisis will bebuilt, especially for developing countries,which derive much of their income fromagricultural production,” – Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture
In Pursuit of Wealth"Agriculture ... is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most to real wealth … and happiness.”-Thomas Jefferson to George Washington
“To plant a garden is to believe in Tomorrow”