Feasibility study of metro transport case study madurai
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  • 1. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 72 FEASIBILITY STUDY OF METRO TRANSPORT: CASE STUDY MADURAI S.M.Subash1 , K.Chandrabose2 , U.Umamaheshwari3 , T.Maharajan4 1 (Assistant Professor, Civil Dept., PSNA College of Engineering and Technology, Dindigul) 2 (Assistant Professor, Civil Dept., Sree Sowdambika College of Engineering, Aruppukottai) 3 (Assistant Professor, Civil Dept., Latha Mathavan Engineering College , Madurai) 4 (Assistant Professor, Civil Dept., Vaigai College of Engineering , Madurai) ABSTRACT The growing demand for public transport in cities has serious effects on urban ecosystems, especially due to the increased atmospheric pollution and changes in land use patterns. An ecologically sustainable urban transport system could be obtained by an appropriate mix of alternative modes of transport resulting in the use of environmentally friendly fuels and land use patterns. Transport, because of its pervasive nature, occupies a central position in the fabric of modern urbanized society. In most of the countries, this has been a story of evolutionary change with new transport development replacing the old transport system in response to perceived socio economic needs of the people. Implementation of such modern transport system of Metro Rail facility to MADURAI city is the ultimate aim of this project. Metro Route Maps are created as per traffic study and evaluated in accurate manner by using GIS, Global Mapper and find out shortest feasible route. Metro provides multiple benefits: reduction in air pollution, time saving to passengers, reduction in accidents, reduction in traffic congestion and fuel savings. There are incremental benefits and costs to a number of economic agents: government, private transporters, passengers, general public and unskilled labour. The cost-benefit analysis of Madurai Metro are done in this paper tries to measure all benefits and costs. Planning of the work done by using software PRIMAVERA and suitable commissioning of the work be planned at 2021.The financial internal rate of return and the economic rate of return on investments in the Metro are estimated. Those estimates are made to be more acceptable and beneficial for financial and economic status regarding the evaluation of metro rail project. Keywords: Cost Benefit Analysis, Feasibility Study, Metro, Public Transportation, Traffic Scenario. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (IJCIET) ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print) ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), pp. 72-83 © IAEME: www.iaeme.com/ijciet.asp Journal Impact Factor (2013): 5.3277 (Calculated by GISI) www.jifactor.com IJCIET © IAEME
  • 2. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 73 1. INTRODUCTION In this fast moving technological world, urbanization and industrialization has gained serious attraction. Mobilization of resources entirely depends upon transportation. Proper channelization and effective planning of transportation is essential for successful development of our community. Mass transportation satisfies all the aspects thus providing much importance to the movement of traffic in a rapid way. Mass transportation facilitates inter-connectivity within the city is undoubtedly an added advantage. The main interpretation that usually follows the term feasibility is one of the following: the case in which an alternative option, a strategy plan, a design or a different location is proved economically preferable; the case in which an alternative option is deemed appropriate in social or environmental terms and the case in which probable construction and operation of a project can be financially viable as well as manageable. A feasibility study is a multidimensional set of actions which aims to analyze and evaluate a project in order to determine if its construction is feasible. Such a study refers to the assessment of results which concern the economic forecast in relation to other important factors, such as socioeconomic efficiency and environmental impact. The defining point of a feasibility study is the necessary information that leads decision- makers to decide if the proposed option or project should be implemented. Its necessity in project development is considered significant, as the identification of errors in this stage contributes to better performance of the project. Thus, the success of a project is determined by the assumptions that are set during the feasibility study process. Metro provides multiple benefits: reduction in air pollution, time saving to passengers, reduction in accidents, reduction in traffic congestion and fuel savings. There are incremental benefits and costs to a number of economic agents: government, private transporters, passengers, general public and unskilled labor. In some cases, a project is not profitable in economic terms; however, its feasibility is attributed to serve another purpose. The present research contributes to the engineering sector and, thus, engineering education by providing a new methodology of feasibility study for railway projects, which balances social, environmental and economic aspects. The elements that comprise such a study are identified and analyzed separately, while the factors that further improve the quality of a rail project, as well as probable parameters which increase the rail use are examined. The second key part of this article refers to the application of this methodology based on a case study of Madurai metro railway. 2. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY FOR A FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR METRO RAILWAYS The nature, location and the type of each project are factors leading to the diversification of feasibility studies. Through a recent survey conducted by Shen et al in four different project categories (residential, commercial, public, industrial), the elements that are taken into consideration have been defined. These elements, which are illustrated in Table 1, are categorized in three sections: social, environmental and economic. In this context, a thorough review of guidelines about feasibility studies of appraisal methods for rail projects and of feasibility studies for particular projects, has been carried out in order to lead to the development of a general structure of feasibility study for railways. More specifically, the sources used include the following: feasibility study guidelines; appraisal guidelines for railway projects and feasibility studies on specific rail projects. In the latter case, seven feasibility studies, which have been carried out for specific rail projects world-wide (in Australia, America, Canada, Europe) were reviewed. This led to a better comprehension of the current implementation of feasibility studies applying to real projects.
  • 3. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 74 TABLE 1: Elements used for a feasibility study (Source: Shen et al) Consequently, by synthesizing the information from these diverse sources and by incorporating components that emerged from research on the elements of which a feasibility study consists, a new methodology of feasibility study for railways was developed, as illustrated in Figure 1. Population is the major resource for development of city. Development of city attracts population from major parts in addition to existing population. The needs of such enormous population demands heavily for an un-interrupted flow. In such cases origin and destination needs of population must be satisfied sufficiently. 2.1 Location Assessment The design of a railway line includes the examination of factors such as topological configuration, quantity of stations and lines, frequency of lines and pricing. The density of lines, the demanding period of parking time around the station, as well as pedestrians' accessibility to the station, are differential variables regarding whether a probable traveller will be attracted to use the metro or not. Locations that enable access to health, education, entertainment services and provide connection to other railway stations should be probably planned to operate as stations before the design of the line, while the location of other stations should preferably be chosen with criteria to attract or serve a larger number of passengers. Fig 1: Methodology for conducting feasibility studies for railways
  • 4. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 75 2.2 Improving Project Quality The basic criterion through which a transportation project is evaluated as qualitative is to meet user needs. The term quality is defined by the transfer that travelers experience while it is synthesized by elements, which are related to the design and the operation of the railway line. Access and egress time, service intervals, in-vehicle time, transfers between modes, reliability information provision, system efficiency are some of these elements, while accessibility is considered to be a key factor in determination of the use of rail as an alternative solution. Reliability has been found in various surveys to be a prominent element, which identifies transportation quality and influences passengers’ choice. Following a survey carried out for analyzing, the factors that contribute to passengers’ satisfaction in order to choose rail are travel comfort, reliability, station organization and information, service schedule, dynamic information, price/quality ratio, accessibility and ticket service. 2.3 Demand Analysis Demand forecasting is an important step in a feasibility study as it assesses the necessity of the project. The broad coverage of areas, advanced connectivity and the placement of stations are factors that increase the demand for the use of public transportation. The outcomes of the demand forecasts are necessary as they contribute to the determination of elements such as the roadway capacity and the length of station platforms. This stresses the importance of the precision in forecasting demand. However according to recent statistical surveys conducted by Flyvbjerg, and Flyvbjerg et al related to the accuracy in demand forecasts in transportation projects, an average of overestimation of 106% in rail projects was observed. In the same vein, Van Vee, and Flyvbjerg et al mention that the overestimation of demand is a common phenomenon while Holz et al support the view that the quality of forecasts needs to be improved. 2.4 Costs of Metro Railways The construction cost of a railway line varies even within the same city, as it depends on the technical characteristics (subsoil, housing situations) of each project, which are linked to local conditions. Further factors that determine the cost of a railway are the length, planning and design parameters, the construction works and station equipment. Large projects are characterized by wider variation in a scale from 40% to 200%, while the systematic underestimation and final overrun of costs which has been noted depends, strictly and incrementally on delays and extensive duration of the implementation phase. Furthermore, regarding data presented by Flyvbjerg et al, underground railways are four to six times more costly than at-grade ones. With reference to the operational costs, these are increased by the existence of characteristics, such as ventilation, lighting, air conditioning or platform screen doors, but simultaneously these factors increase the satisfaction of customers by providing them comfort, reliability and quality of services. Maintenance costs are usually estimated by using historical expenditure figures. 2.5 Cost-Benefit Analysis The economic appraisal of transportation projects is interlinked with cost - benefit analysis (CBA), as it is a main index regarding the value of investment. Through a comparison between costs and benefits by using the benefit cost ratio (BCR), the economic net present value (ENPV) and the economic rate of return (ERR), the social value of the project can be produced. The value of travel time savings is considered to be a key characteristic for transport studies as it occupies 50-70% of the total benefit. Vehicle operating costs (VOCS) are accrued by multiplying the default operating cost per vehicle kilometre by the number of vehicle kilometres saved by the project. The methods, which are intended to evaluate the non-user benefits related to the prevention of accidents are referred to as the average danger levels according to transport mode, while the environmental externalities generally depend upon the travel distances and exposure to polluting emissions.
  • 5. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 76 2.6 Financial Analysis The financial analysis consists of the financial net present value, financial return on investment cost (FNPV(C) and FRR (C)), sources of financing, financial sustainability, the financial net present value and financial return on the national capital (FNPV(K) and FRR(K)). The FNPV is defined as the sum that results when the expected investment and operating costs of the project are deducted from the discounted value of the expected revenues. Financial sustainability is one of the most important features in a feasibility study. The term financial sustainability includes the possibility of a project not running the risk of a cash shortfall in any phase of its implementation for the considered period of time. 2.7 Social and Environmental Assessment One of the most important aims for the improvement of public sector projects according to Shen et al is to fulfill the social objectives, which should be addressed in all public projects [3]. The potential social impacts, which are expected from the existence and the operation of a railway project could be divided into three categories, namely socioeconomic efficiency (passenger time savings, reduction of traffic congestion, cost saving to society), development plan of the city (increase of productivity, efficiently function of urban areas, urban development) and social improvements (access for all people, land acquisition). The large-scale tendency is that railways contribute to minimizing the negative effects of environmental pollution. Noise pollution is minimized in underground transport infrastructure compared with elevated and surface ones, while the saving of energy is of high importance. In addition, the construction of a railway is associated with environmental preservation and elimination of crossings with non-physical obstacles. 3. CASE STUDY –PROPOSED METRO RAILWAY NETWORK FOR MADURAI The second key part of this article refers to the implementation of the developed methodology in a case study of Madurai city. Madurai is among the oldest and continuously inhabited city in the Indian peninsula. It is an ancient and prestigious city in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, situated on the banks of the River Vaigai. The city is widely known as the Temple City. Madurai city has an area of 1305 km2 within an urban area now extending over as much as 1905 km2 .I t has an average elevation of 101 meters above mean sea level. The city was the epicenter of the Tamil Sangams, Literature, Art and Culture Fig 2: Madurai District Map
  • 6. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 77 Fig 3: Climate and Rainfall Data 3.1 Traffic scenario & alignment Like any other metropolitan cities in India, Madurai also faces many transport problems. Low travel speed, high accident rate involving fatalities and increased vehicular pollution are mainly due to: Narrow roads with heavy traffic congestion; Little possibility of expansion of road network due to heavily built-up areas; Frequent traffic jams at numerous road intersections; 75% of composition of traffic consisting of low occupancy vehicles, viz. two wheelers; Very high number of auto rickshaws’, share autos High parking demand due to proliferation of personalized vehicles; and Over-crowded buses with long routes. Need for an efficient rail-based system has been felt for a long time and it’s high time for proposal of metro system for Madurai. Numerous studies were taken to provide an optimum and effective solution our proposal. 3.2 Locations of Survey The traffic hotspots have been identified and the surveys were carried out on the following spots during the peak and normal hours. The locations are Gorippalayam Intersection Kalavasal Intersection Anna Intersection Avanyapuram Intersection
  • 7. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 78 The Classified Volume count has been taken at these places during the peak hour and other durations. The results are summarized as follows Fig 4: Avaniyapuram traffic chart Fig 5: Goripalayam Traffic Chart Fig 6-Anna bus stand traffic chart Fig 7: Kalavasal traffic chart 3.3 Population The population of Madurai city grew from 4 lakhs in the year 1901 to 34lakhs in the year 2011. Growth of population since 1951 is shown in Figure 1. During the decade 1951-61, the city recorded an increase of 20% in its population from 365 thousands to 425 thousands. But this growth was not persistent during the period 1991-2001. During this period city recorded a growth of 63% pushing the population to 2580 thousands, in the year 2001. Projected population as per Draft Master Plan - 2021 for Madurai area is 3400 thousands,4600 thousands, and 6200 thousands in the year 2011,2021and 2031 respectively. Besides there is a floating population of the order of some thousands. 3.4 Questionnaire Survey A questionnaire (or form) is a group or sequence of questions designed to obtain information on a subject from a respondent. Questionnaires play a central role in the data collection process since they have a major impact on data quality and influence the image that the statistical agency projects to the public. Questionnaires can either be in paper or computerized format. Problems faced during questionnaire design include: deciding what questions to ask, how to best word them and how to
  • 8. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 79 arrange the questions to yield the information required. The goal is to obtain information in such a way that survey respondents understand the questions and can provide the correct answers easily in a form that is suitable for subsequent processing and analysis of the data. While there are well established principles for questionnaire design, crafting a good questionnaire remains an art requiring ingenuity, experience and testing. If the data requirements are not properly transformed into a structured data collection instrument of high quality, a ‘good’ sample can yield ‘bad’ results. Nearly Five Hundred Samples has been collected from various Institutions, Industries, Public Places and also through social networking. (Refer Annexure A). Interview methods which applied for this study are Telephone Sampling and Road Side Interview. The periodical results obtained for various questions. TABLE 2: Questionnaire Survey Results S.No Questions Results 1 What is the mode of transport you are using? Bus – 50%, Four Wheelers – 10% Two Wheelers – 30%, Others – 10% 2 Are you able to reach your destination in time using the present mode? Yes- 5% No – 95% 3 What are the problems that you face while in movement inside Madurai? Heavy Flow of Vehicles – 35% Traffic Congestion – 45% Inadequate Width of Roads – 10% All of these – 10% 4 What is your choice to relief from the traffic Congestion? Rail Transport – 50% Increase of Public Buses – 20% Own use of Vehicles – 15% Contract Conveyance – 15% 5 Is metro transport necessary in Madurai? Essential – 55% Compulsory – 25% Not necessary – 20% 3.5 Route Alignment The route alignment decided for Madurai metro system is to serve the purpose of maximum coverage in minimum trip time. This purpose is solved upon by connecting major points of the city. This includes connecting market centers, educational institutions, business sectors, commercial sectors etc. The main idea of solving traffic congestion in the city is achieved through this route selection. Phase I Thirumangalam- Kappalur- Thirunagar- Thiruparangundram- Periyar- Simakkal/Goripalayam - Kk Nagar- Maattuthavni Phase II Airport- Avanyapuram- Periyar- Koodal Nagar
  • 9. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 80 3.6 Detailed Alignment Phase I The corridor begins from Thirumangalam which is located about 25Kms from the Madurai CBD area. The station already available in this spot thus development of station area is simple and cost Effective. Rolling Stock is meant to be operated by constructing a track with Standard Gauge in prevailing track on a ground level since there is a feasibility in construction of new tracks. From thirumangalam it stretches to Kappalur, Thirunagar, Thiruparangundram, and Periyar in a ground level with a average station spacing of 2.75Km. From Periyar Rolling Stock is operated in a Elevated network and cross the places of Simakal, Goripalayam, KK nagar and Mattuthavni. From Simakal to KK nagar the Corridor is Constructed over the vaigai river with a suitable construction Practise. For a stretch of KK nagar to Matuthavni elevated track is constructed over a NH – Sivaganga Road. Total length of track is about 23.2 Km. Phase II The corridor begins from Koodal nagar terminal station located around 2km from Fatima College. It stretches towards Periyar through a passage surrounded by wide stretch of field lands on either side. This stretch includes narrow bends and curves to achieve flexible movement within this area. It then passes straight over a continuous stretch of channel underneath to reach Periyar. The metro corridor then stretches through agricultural and barren land which belongs to thiruparangundram area and moves straight over the road and reached the station Avanyapuram. The stretch continues towards Airport above road in elevated platform over the ring road. Total length of track is about 11 Km. Figure 8: Route alignment
  • 10. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 81 Fig 9: Schematic Map of MMRC Using GIS Fig 10: Shortest Route Obtained using Google Earth
  • 11. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 82 4.0 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS Through the cost-benefit analysis (Table 7.1 & 7.2), where the distribution of costs was assumed to be linear (five-year period of construction), it was revealed that the main contributors to the present value of benefits are the travel time savings, as they contribute to the 43% of the total benefits. The benefits were categorized into user benefits (travel time savings), non-user benefits (accident benefits, environmental externalities), fare revenue from new users and residual value of rail assets. Benefit Cost ratio is estimated as 2.30 and 1.92 at 8 percent and 10 percent discount rates. Hence the B/C ratio is more than 1 it is meant to be highly acceptable one regarding the financial criteria and highly beneficial to Public Sector. TABLE 3: Cost benefit Analysis for Discount Rate of 8 Percentage Present value of benefits 12420 Crores Present value of operating costs 400 Crores Present value of capital costs 5000 Crores Discount rate 8% ENPV 7020Crores ERR 9.5% B/C ratio 2.3 TABLE 4: Cost benefit Analysis for Discount Rate of 10 Percentage Present value of benefits 10368 Crores Present value of operating costs 400 Crores Present value of capital costs 5000 Crores Discount rate 10% ENPV 4968Crores ERR 7.5% B/C ratio 1.92 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS For successful implementation of any metro project, which by its very nature is highly technical and complex, huge in size and to be executed in difficult urban environments, political will and commitment is necessary. Decisions are to be taken fast and the implementing agency must have the required work culture, commitment to targets, safety, quality and cost consciousness. Metro projects are highly capital intensive. On account of the high costs involved and the need to maintain a fare structure within the affordable reach of ordinary citizens, metro projects are not ordinarily financially viable. But considering the overwhelming economic gains to the society and fact that cities with population of more than five million cannot just survive without an efficient metro system, it is strongly recommend that the Madurai Metro system be taken up for implementation in the financial year 2011-2012 itself. Madurai being one of the fastest growing urban agglomerations of the country will need a bigger metro network. The corridors proposed in phase I will require to be extended when the phase I become fully operational.
  • 12. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET), ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print), ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online) Volume 4, Issue 4, July-August (2013), © IAEME 83 REFERENCES 1. Yuanqing Wang, Lei Li, Zhicheng Wang, Ting Lv, Li Wang (2013) – Mode shifts behavior impacts from the introduction of metro service: case study of Xi’an, China. Journal of Urban Planning and Development. 2. Kassiani Tsimplokoukou, Eleni Sfakianaki & George Metaxas (2012)- A feasibility study approach for underground railways - a case study: Line 4 of Athens metro - Global Journal of Engineering Education –Volume.14,91-98. 3. Khashayar Kashani Jou (2011) - Evaluating integration between public transportation and pedestrian-oriented urban spaces in two main metro stations of Tehran - Scientific Research and Essays Volume.6,2695-2709. 4. V. Batsos And John Tzouvadakis(2011) - New Metro System As A Catalyst For Successful Planning Interventions In Athens- Journal Of Urban Planning And Development- Pg No 49- 55. 5. Dr. S. Moses Santhakumar, G. Gokuldas and P. Partheeban(2003) - Transportation system management for Madurai city using GIS – Map India Conference. 6. Comparitive evaluation between elevated and underground mumbai metro-Prof. Dr. S.L. Dhingra-2010 . 7. M N Murty, Kishore Kumar Dhavala, Meenakshi Ghosh and Rashmi Singh (2006) - Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Delhi Metro. 8. Anurag Ohri and Dr. P.K.Singh, “GIS Based Secondary Storage and Transportation System Planning for Municipal Solid Waste”, International Journal of Civil Engineering & Technology (IJCIET), Volume 1, Issue 1, 2010, pp. 108 - 130, ISSN Print: 0976 – 6308, ISSN Online: 0976 – 6316. 9. T Subramani, R Elangovan and P.K.Kumaresan, “Programming Management for Fixing Priority to Identified Transport Facility Projects using Expert System in Salem City, Tamilnadu”, International Journal of Civil Engineering & Technology (IJCIET), Volume 3, Issue 1, 2012, pp. 21 - 32, ISSN Print: 0976 – 6308, ISSN Online: 0976 – 6316. 10. Dr M.A.Lahori and Mohd Siham, “Relevance of Ethics in Business-A Study on Public Transport System”, International Journal of Management (IJM), Volume 4, Issue 2, 2013, pp. 227 - 235, ISSN Print: 0976-6502, ISSN Online: 0976-6510. 11. Mukti Advani and Geetam Tiwari-(2005) - Evaluation of public transport systems: case study of delhi metro-Transportation Research & Injury Prevention Programme. 12. Ad CTTS Report (Comprehensive Traffic and Transportation Study) for Madurai Local Planning Area (1997), Department of Town and Country Planning, Regional Office, Madurai. 13. “The Need” - Delhi MRTS project, http://delhigovt.nic.in/dmrc.asp 14. www.railway-technology.com/projects/mumbai-metro 15. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai_Metro 16. www.mmrdamumbai.org/ 17. European Commission. Railway Project Appraisal Guidelines (RAILPAG). 18. www.cmrl.gov.in 19. http://www.esri.com