Networked Political Protests Patrick P. Meier The Fletcher School at Tufts & Berkman Center, Harvard University

1. Examples…

DigiActive

Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” DigiActive

Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” DigiActive

Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text” Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS” Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests” DigiActive

2. Question…

ICT a statistically significant predictor of protests events?

3. Previous studies…

Data-driven

Data-driven Eyck 2001

Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008

Data-driven Eyck 2001 Stodden and Meier 2008 ?

4. Data…

Parameters

Parameters Protests ICTs Controls

Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year

Parameters Protests ICTs Controls Time period 1990-2007 country-year 22 regimes

Graphs

Graphs Protests

Graphs Protests Internet

Graphs Protests Internet Mobiles

Summary Stats N = 396

5. Methods…

Regressions

Regressions y i,t =  i +  1 Int i,t +  2 Mob i,t +  3 Land i,t +  4 Autoc i,t +  5 Unemp i,t +  6 GDP i,t +  i,t

Regressions Observed vs Projected

Observed vs Projected F i = y obs,i - y model,i

6. Findings…

Results*

Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level

Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant

Results* Internet -0.12 (0.03) 99% sig level Mobiles -0.06 (0.06) not significant Other variables not significant

Results* Rsq = 0.613 Rsq = 0.155

6. Conclusion & Next

Thoughts Internet.gov?

Thoughts Internet.gov? Other methods?

Thoughts Internet.gov? Other methods? Field research

Thank You [email_address] www.iRevolution.wordpress.com <- blog Twitter @patrickmeier