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Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels
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Record high earnings to propel stock markets to record high levels

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Analysis of 19 Markets

Analysis of 19 Markets

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  • 1. R
  • 2. CONTENT Macro Backdrop P.3-4 Market Outlook US P.5 Europe P.6 Japan P.7 Emerging Markets P.8 Asia ex Japan P.9 Singapore P.10 Hong Kong P.11 Taiwan P.12 South Korea P.13 China P.14 Shanghai A P.15 Malaysia P.16 Thailand P.17 India P.18 Indonesia P.19 Russia P.20 Brazil P.21 Australia P.22 Technology P.23
  • 3. EARNINGS TO HIT ALL-TIME HIGH IN MACRO BACKDROP PAGE 3 VARIOUS MARKETS In today‟s investment world, investors are constantly faced with all kinds of news. It is easy to be overwhelmed by the amount of information that gets reported all the time. In the last six months, a long list of concerns have been expressed by market commentators, despite the fact that corporate earnings have been on the recovery trend. While it is important to keep an eye on the key financial news that comes out each month, it is even more important for investors to have a clear understanding about the overall corporate earnings trend. Investors should always remember that the ultimate key determinant of stock prices is corporate earnings. This has been proven by the close correlation between stock prices and the earnings in the past 50 years. In the very short term (a few weeks or a few months), stock prices may seem to deviate from the corporate earnings trend. However, over a period of one to two years or more, stock prices have shown that they track the earnings trend. The global economy has been on a recovery phase since the second half of 2009, after hitting a bottom in the first half 2009. Typically, in the first 3-4 years following a recession or crisis, earnings growth will be strong. We are currently only in the initial stages of the earnings recovery after experiencing the global financial crisis. In this publication, we have compiled the earnings estimates of the various markets and regions we cover, to show investors how the earnings trends have been, and how they are expected to be in the next two years. The estimates for 2010 to 2012 are based on bottom-up estimates from consensus analysts‟ earnings forecasts for the key companies in each market and region, and these are aggregated to produce the overall market earnings per share (EPS), and the estimated growth rates. The compilations show that earnings are expected to hit record levels by 2011/2012 for most markets and regions. For certain markets, earnings are already expected to see a record level in 2010. At this point, an important question for investors to ponder over is: “If Earnings Are Hitting Record Highs, When Will Stock Markets Reach Record Highs?” At iFAST, we expect that the equity markets, after being kept nervous by many concerns over the last six months, will start to refocus on the key fundamentals – corporate earnings, as we head into 2011 and beyond. Important considerations are as follow:  Earnings at Record High: Consensus earnings in various markets are forecast to hit an all-time high in 2010-2012. Given the fact that earnings estimates from various brokerage houses are still pessimistic following the global financial crisis, the actual earnings may turn out to be even higher. Historically, analysts tend to under-estimate earnings recovery in the first 1-2 years following an economic recovery.  ‘Once Bitten, Twice Shy’: The market has gotten into a fierce debate on whether or not we are heading into another crisis. This is happening because investors have a „once bitten, twice shy‟ behaviour, after they have been badly hit by the global financial crisis in 2008. As a result, they are always on the lookout for the next crisis.  Slowdown/Crisis? The Numbers Speak for Themselves: A mid-cycle temporary slowdown, often triggered by a high base effect, comes and goes frequently in a long economic expansion while corporate earnings remain on an upward trend. Most crises occur after a long period of prosperity, encompassing years of excesses in property, capital expenditure and consumer spending. Such pre- conditions do not exist in most countries today, following the 2008 crisis. Hence, we believe strongly that the economic situation we are facing now is a temporary mid-cycle slowdown which will not prevent earnings from hitting new highs.
  • 4. The major US recessions in the past 40 years MACRO BACKDROP PAGE 4 Crisis comes and goes, but overall strong corporate earnings stay…
  • 5. US (S&P 500) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 5 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 82.93 97.30 110.60 (EPS) Earnings Growth 35.4% 17.3% 13.7% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  Financials sector is expected to post fastest profit growth in 2011 (+27.7%)  Materials, Industrials and Energy are expected to see profits rise 26.7%, 17.1% and 16.8% in 2011 respectively  Weakest 2011 growth to come from Utilities and Healthcare (+2.4% and +7.8%) Target Level by end 2012 = 110.6 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 15X (Fair PE) = 1,659 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 6. Europe (Stoxx 600) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 6 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 22.29 25.91 29.01 (EPS) Earnings Growth 32.1% 16.3% 11.9% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  Based on EPS growth, the three fastest growing sectors for 2011 are IT (+25.6%), Financial (+25.1%) and Materials (+21.7%)  The three slowest growing sectors for 2011 are Healthcare (+6.1%), Telecommunications (+4.1%) and Utilities (+1.9%)  The three fastest growing sectors for 2012 are Financial (+17.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+16.9%) and Industrials (+15.1%)  The three slowest growing sectors for 2012 are Utilities (+7.2%), Healthcare (+4.0%) and Telecommunications (+3.9%)  Financial sector is the index heavyweight and the key driver of earnings Target Level by end 2012 = 29.01 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 12.5X (Fair PE) = 362.6 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 7. Japan (Nikkei 225) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 7 Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 Earnings per Share 576.54 639.42 786.23 (EPS) Earnings Growth 64.7% 10.9% 23.0% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) ** Japan’s fiscal year 2010 ends in March 2010; hence, its EPS numbers are for fiscal years 2011, 2012 and 2013 Key points:  Due to the low earnings in FY 2010, we expect earnings growth in FY 2011 to rise strongly.  According to Ministry of Finance, corporate profits rose 83.4% y-o-y and 18% m-o-m in the first quarter of FY 2011 FY (April to June). Strong earnings growth in various sectors has been seen in Japan, especially for the manufacturers which have benefitted from the global economic recovery.  Confidence of Japan‟s large manufacturers rebounded for a fifth straight quarter, thanks to robust demand from Asia. Tankan Large Manufacturers Index in the second quarter of 2010 climbed to 1 from negative 14, the first positive reading since the second quarter of 2008. Large companies forecast rising sales will drive profits 21.6% higher in this fiscal year. The business confidence indices for all the categories of companies improved in the quarter, the first time since 1994.  Earnings at Japan's banking sector are finally back to pre-crisis levels. Japan‟s three mega-banks all reported net profits of over ¥100 billion for the April-June 2010 quarter. The sharp improvement in earnings was mainly contributed by smaller losses on bad loans thanks to the economic recovery. Target Level by end 2012 = 786.23 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 17.5X (Fair PE) = 13,759 Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations points
  • 8. Global Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 8 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 82.02 95.84 109.09 (EPS) Earnings Growth 37.9% 16.8% 13.8% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  The estimated EPS of the Global Emerging Markets (GEM) region is going to beat its all-time high in 2007 by the end of 2010  Asia ex-Japan region accounted for about 56% of the MSCI Global Emerging Market Index in terms of market capitalisation. Therefore, we should not be surprised to see both the GEM and Asia ex-Japan regions report an all-time high in earnings by end of 2010  Three of the three markets BRIC are expected to record a new high in earnings by end of 2010: Brazil, India and China  In terms of earnings growth, consensus estimates point to growth of 16.8% and 13.8% in 2011 and 2012 respectively  According to the IMF, emerging and developing economies are expected to grow 6.8% and 6.4% in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Compared to growth rates of 2.6% and 2.4% in the advanced economies in 2010 and 2011, emerging markets will take the lead in global recovery Target Level by end 2012 = 109.09 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 14X (Fair PE) = 1,527 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 9. Asia ex Japan (MSCI Asia ex Japan) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 9 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 37.56 41.95 46.71 (EPS) Earnings Growth 41.2% 11.7% 11.3% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  The estimated EPS of the Asia ex-Japan region is expected to beat its all-time high level achieved in 2007 by the end of 2010  In Asia, Taiwan, Korea, China, Malaysia, India and Indonesia are expected to hit an all-time high in earnings by end-2010  In terms of earnings growth, consensus estimates point to growth of 11.7% and 11.3% in 2011 and 2012 respectively  China and Indonesia will be the key consumer markets in the North Asia and the Southeast Asia regions respectively  The big three consumer-driven economies, namely China, India and Indonesia will take the lead in propelling Asia‟s recovery. According to the IMF, the GDP growth forecast for developing Asia will be 9.2% and 8.5% in 2010 and 2011 respectively Target Level by end 2012 = 46.71 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 15.3X (Fair PE) = 715 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 10. Singapore (STI) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 10 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 206.99 225.47 247.49 (EPS) Earnings Growth 21.8% 8.9% 9.8% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  Largest profit growth will come from leisure and commodities sectors (2007-2012)  Banks are expected to post a higher profit in 2012 than in 2007  Media, Shipping and Property are expected to post sluggish growth/profit declines in 2012, compared to 2007  Telecommunications sector is expected to show low single-digit growth over 5 years  Offshore/Rig-builders are still expected to post higher profit in 2012 compared to 2007, but 2010 should be their peak profit year Target Level by end 2012 = 247.49 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 16.2X (Fair PE) = 4,000 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 11. Hong Kong (HSI) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 11 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 1540.16 1783.32 2032.98 (EPS) Earnings Growth 12.2% 15.8% 14.0% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  Hong Kong‟s GDP expended 6.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2010. The government forecasts GDP growth to hit 5% to 6% for the full year  In 2010, the largest earnings growth is expected to come from the Info tech sector, followed by the Industrials sector. As more rapidly-growing HK-listed Chinese stocks become Hang Seng Index‟s constituents, HSI‟s consensus earnings may be further revised upward  Retail sales in HK have been posting a double-digit growth while the improving labour market and a growing number of mainland tourists will likely boost domestic demand. The consensus earnings suggest the consumer sector in HK will grow even faster in 2011 and 2012  As many Hong Kong companies expand their mainland China operations, they could also ride on China‟s strong growth. For instance, HK property developers have been aggressively increasing their land bank in Chinese cities. Similarly, HK financials are seeking new opportunities in mainland China as the industry in Hong Kong is rather mature. We expect to see a high growth in their mainland business that will likely become an important driver for their corporate earnings Target Level by end 2012 = 2032.98 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 16X (Fair PE) = 32,527 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 12. Taiwan (TWSE) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 12 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 595.15 669.51 725.37 (EPS) Earnings Growth 110.8% 12.5% 8.3% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  Taiwan‟s economy grew faster than China‟s in 1H10 and posted double-digit growth, with revised 1Q10 GDP up 13.71% y-o-y and 2Q10 GDP up 12.53% y-o-y. The much better-than-expected performance has caused a significant earnings upgrade for Taiwanese equities  We think the chance of a double-dip recession is very low and Taiwan‟s economy is turning from a cyclical rebound to normal growth. The government forecasted GDP for 2011 to be 4.64% which is closer to the island‟s long-term growth trend  Led by the Industrials, Financial and the Info tech sectors, the TWSE‟s earnings are expected to double in 2010. This growth is expected to be the highest in the Asia ex- Japan region  Technology companies‟ capex spending has been gaining huge momentum this year. For instance, TSMC recently raised its capex forecast for this year to US$2.3 billion from US$1.9 billion, suggesting growing optimism over the industry‟s outlook  The signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was a step forward for cross-strait relations and may boost Taiwan‟s long-term economic growth. Thus, Taiwanese equities may be further re-rated  Non-tech sectors have seen huge earnings upgrades since the signing of ECFA, led by tourism and some manufacturing sectors Target Level by end 2012 = 725.37 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 15.5X (Fair PE) = 11,243 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 13. South Korea (KOSPI) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 13 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 182.07 192.86 215.23 (EPS) Earnings Growth 56.2% 8.3% 8.9% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  Within the KOSPI, the Auto, Semiconductors and IT sectors are expected to lead EPS growth in 2010. Earnings growth in 2010 for semiconductors and IT sectors are estimated to rise by 50.6% and 30.5% respectively. Auto sector is also expected to post 47% growth in 2010 earnings. As a result, the 2010 estimated earnings growth of KOSPI is 56.2%  Despite concerns over the European debt crisis and the possibility of a double-dip recession, earnings in these sectors have still been revised upward. For example, earnings in Semiconductors, Auto and IT have been revised upward by 7.4%, 10% and 4.5% respectively. Healthcare was the sector which has the strongest upward revision at 22%  Korean exporters are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of external demand led by emerging markets. The country‟s total export to non-G3 markets (US, Europe and Japan) exceeds 70%. As such, Korean exporters are more likely to benefit from the export recovery as developed nations are expected to experience slower economic growth compared with the emerging markets  Korea‟s technology exports to the BRIC countries have exceeded those to the G3 markets since September 2009 (by value). These figures explain why the earnings of Korean exporters have been upgraded sharply in recent months as global trade picked up with demand from the emerging markets Target Level by end 2012 = 215.23 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 13X (Fair PE) = 2,798 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 14. China (HKCEI) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 14 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 954.80 1110.68 1281.02 (EPS) Earnings Growth 22.3% 16.3% 15.3% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  China‟s economy expanded by 11.9% y-o-y and 10.3% y-o-y in 1Q10 and 2Q10 respectively. Despite concerns of an economic slowdown, we expect the economy to grow by 10% in 2010 and the chance of a “hard landing” is very low. Despite slower growth, China‟s role in contributing to global economic growth remains important amid the longer-than-expected sub-par growth in the developed markets  In 2010, the strongest earnings growth is expected to come from the materials sector, followed by the industrials sector  HK-listed Chinese banks posted decent half-year results with 1H10 profit up 35% y-o-y on average. Interim results suggest a widening net interest margin, strong growth in fee income and a stable credit quality. Despite concerns over stricter regulatory rules, we think their operating outlook remains bright and the result of the recent stricter stress tests (which assumed a 50% drop in property prices) gives us a clear idea on their credit portfolios  Compared to the broader Chinese A-Share markets, HSCEI is currently financials-heavy but we expect to see more Chinese consumer stocks added to the index in the future. This will likely offer an additional source of growth driver as consumption will likely take a larger role and become the main growth driver for the economy in the country‟s 12th Five Year Plan Target Level by end 2012 = 1281.02 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 15X (Fair PE) = 19,215 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 15. Shanghai A (SHASHR) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 15 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 177.77 213.01 246.88 (EPS) Earnings Growth 36.8% 19.8% 15.9% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  China‟s economy expanded by 11.9% y-o-y and 10.3% y-o-y in 1Q10 and 2Q10 respectively. Despite concerns of an economic slowdown, we expect to the economy to grow by 10% in 2010 and the chance of a “hard landing” is very low. Despite slower growth, China‟s role in contributing to the global economic growth remains important amid the longer-than-expected sub-par growth in the developed markets  In 2010, the largest earnings growth is expected to come from the info tech sector, followed by the materials and the industrial sectors  Consumption will likely become the growth driver for the economy in the 12 th Five Year Plan, compared to infrastructure in the previous plan. With a population of 1.3billion, we think China indeed hasn‟t unleashed its potential to be the world‟s largest consumer. Other themes including healthcare reform and western (rural) China development also offer investment opportunities  Within the domestic consumption theme, we particularly favour food, cars, wine and branded luxury items. One reason is that the increasing disposable income is likely to foster the emergence of the middle class which would help to boost discretionary spending. We expect growth of the middle class in China to continue and drive consumer spending Target Level by end 2012 = 246.88 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 20X (Fair PE) = 4,938 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 16. Malaysia (KLCI) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 16 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 91.47 102.72 111.88 (EPS) Earnings Growth 25.5% 12.3% 8.9% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  The proposed Government Transformation Programme (GTP) and New Economic Model (NEM) aim to increase household disposable income, enhance infrastructure and reduce crime and corruption. A successful implementation of the GTP and NEM could increase the standard of living and hence domestic demand. Furthermore, it will attract more foreign fund flows into Malaysia  The Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is going to liberalise the financial and banking system. Currently, BNM is reducing its intervention in the RM exchange rate causing the RM to appreciate against USD b around 10%. This has attracted foreign investors to invest into the financial markets  Economic growth in Malaysia remains healthy, backed by improved domestic consumption and exports, especially exports of electrical and electronic products. The Malaysia Institute of Economic Research revised the GDP growth rate for 2010 to 6.5% y-o-y from the previous forecasted growth rate of 5.2%. GDP for 1Q and 2Q 2010 grew 10.1% and 8.9% y-o-y  Banking sector remains the main driver of growth in KLCI‟s EPS. Banking stocks take up around 35% of the KLCI. With loan growth expected to remain healthy and with the BNM normalising the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) from the current 2.75% to 3.25-3.50% in 2011, the net interest margins of the banking sector will definitely improve from the hike in OPR Target Level by end 2012 = 111.88 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 16.1X (Fair PE) = 1,800 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 17. Thailand (SET) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 17 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 69.60 81.16 92.52 (EPS) Earnings Growth 8.5% 16.6% 14.2% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  Based on EPS growth, the three fastest growing sectors for 2011 are Materials (+23.0%), Industrials (+20.6%) and Energy (+18.1%)  The three slowest growing sectors for 2011 are IT (+11.1%), Telecommunications (+6.0%) and Utilities (+1.0%)  Three fastest growing sectors for 2012 are Industrials (+21.0%), Financials (+18.0%) and Materials (+16.4%)  Three slowest growing sectors for 2012 are Consumer Staples (+9.7%), Telecommunications (+5.8%) and Utilities (+5.5%)  Energy and financials sectors are the index heavyweights and will be the key drivers of earnings Target Level by end 2012 = 92.52 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 12.4X (Fair PE) = 1,147 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 18. India (SENSEX) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 18 Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 Earnings per Share 997.27 1198.18 1398.50 (EPS) Earnings Growth 16.8% 20.2% 16.7% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) ** India’s fiscal year 2010 ends in March 2010; hence, its EPS numbers are for fiscal years 2011, 2012 and 2013 Key points:  For FY 2011, the following sectors are expected to have higher EPS growth than the SENSEX‟s EPS growth of 16.8%: Metal by 355.89% (due to Corus turning profitable for Tata Steel, a change from last year when Corus‟ losses had hit the books of Tata Steel very badly), Real estate by 36.3% and Petroleum by 27.41%  For FY 2012, the following sectors have higher growth in EPS than the SENSEX‟s 20.1%: Real estate by 33.09%, Banking by 27.07%, Metal by 27.02% and Infrastructure by 24.14%  For FY 2013, the following sectors have higher growth in EPS than the SENSEX‟s 16.7%: Real estate by 38.63%, Telecom by 24.61%, Infrastructure by 23.11%, Banking by 21.25% and IT by 21.21%  Infrastructure and Banking sectors will play a crucial role in EPS growth going forward as more than US$1 trillion is expected to be invested into the infrastructure sector in FY 2013-17, compared to planned investments of US$542 billion in FY 2007-12 Target Level by end 2012 = 1398.5 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 16.9X (Fair PE) = 23,634 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 19. Indonesia (JCI) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 19 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 205.64 246.90 287.43 (EPS) Earnings Growth 28.06% 20.0% 16.4% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  Based on EPS growth, the three fastest growing sectors for 2011 are Energy (+55.2%), Financial (+21.1%) and Healthcare (+19.4%). Energy is expected to see strong growth relative to the low base in 2009 as earnings were battered that year   The three slowest growing sectors for 2011 are Utilities (+15.3%), Telecommunications (+13.9%) and Industrials (-23.5%). The Industrials sector‟s negative 2011 EPS number is due to a strong profit growth base in 2010  The three fastest growing sectors for 2012 are Healthcare (+18.1%), Industrials (+18.0%) and Financial (+16.7%)  The three slowest growing sectors for 2012 are Telecommunications (+14.5%) and Materials (+13.6%) and Consumer Discretionary (+12.9%)  Financial sector is an index heavyweight and will be a key driver of earnings Target Level by end 2012 = 287.43 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 15.0X (Fair PE) = 4,311 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 20. Russia (RTSI$) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 20 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 192.69 228.72 259.85 (EPS) Earnings Growth 47.8% 18.7% 13.6% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  We think Russia‟s worst drought in decades has a limited impact on its economy as the agricultural sector only accounts for a small GDP share (~ 5%)  Led by the Financial and the Material sectors, Russia‟s earnings re-rating process has lagged behind other equity markets. However, the higher GDP growth will likely spur corporate earnings. The earnings are expected to grow around 50% in 2010, much stronger than the emerging markets‟ average  Oil prices remain at a comfortable range and have been moving sideways this year. The less volatile oil price will benefit the growth of the non-commodity sectors. We expect to see domestic consumption sector to outperform the energy sector this year  The record low interest rate is supportive of corporate borrowing and this in turn helps to fuel growth for capital investment and retail sales  Although the expected earnings will not hit a new high until 2012, the RTS Index is still trading far below its all-time peak, suggesting a huge upside potential Target Level by end 2012 = 259.85 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 8.5X (Fair PE) = 2,208 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 21. Brazil (IBOV) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 21 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 5313.95 6869.51 8100.50 (EPS) Earnings Growth 60.8% 29.3% 17.9% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  Brazil‟s 2Q10 GDP went up by 8.8% y-o-y, better than the 7.9% consensus. The market earlier expected an imminent economic slowdown as the central bank hiked rates and tax concessions ended  The Brazilian central bank projected the economy to grow by 7.1% in 2010. We expect this huge GDP growth to translate into strong corporate earnings growth  Consumption which accounts for over 60% of Brazil‟s economy will likely become an attractive theme as reflected in the robust retail sales. However, relevant stocks are under-represented in the Bovespa Index as the Energy and Material sectors take the largest pie  We think the Bovespa Index will likely include more consumer stocks in the future. The Consumer sector provides more stable growth, compared to the cyclical Energy and Material sectors. This change will therefore helps to lower the earnings volatility of the commodity-heavy Bovespa Index  Brazil will host the 2014 FIFA World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games. These international events are likely to boost infrastructure spending Target Level by end 2012 = 8100.5 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 11.5X (Fair PE) = 93,156 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 22. Australia (S&P/ASX 200) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 22 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 290.96 349.90 398.60 (EPS) Earnings Growth 14.9% 20.3% 13.9% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) ** Australia’s fiscal year 2010 ends in June 2010; hence, its EPS numbers are for fiscal years 2010, 2011 and 2012 Key points:  The Consumer Confidence Index has risen from 101.9 in June to 119.2 in August, while the unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months to 5.1% in June. The figures are supportive for growth in the domestic consumption sector. The expected earnings growth for the Consumer discretionary sector in 2010 is 42.35%  The earning growth for the overall market comes mainly from the financial sector. The expected earnings growth for the Financials sector is 102.77% in 2010  China has always been one of the largest importers of Australian commodities. The demand from China would have a large impact on Australian miners. The encouraging upward trend in overall imports and domestic consumption in China could further buoy the Australian equity market  The original Resource Super Profits Tax (RSPT) of 40% suggested by former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has been revised down to 30% by his successor, Julia Gillard. As the new government‟s stance has gone even softer on the issue due to a hung parliament, there is a possibility that an even lower RSPT will come into effect Target Level by end 2012 = 398.6 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 14.5X (Fair PE) = 5,780 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
  • 23. Technology (NASDAQ 100) MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 23 Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 Earnings per Share 122.64 141.16 160.72 (EPS) Earnings Growth 57.9% 15.1% 13.9% Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations (as of end-August 2010) Key points:  Earnings of technology companies showed outstanding resilience in 2009 and thus we are not surprised to see a huge growth this year. The majority of the technology companies in the S&P 500 Index posted better-than-expected results over the last few quarters  Over 50% of the US technology companies‟ sales come from overseas markets and their EPS will benefit substantially from the strong emerging markets demand  Market research firm, iSuppli expects to see record revenue in global chip sales of US$310 billion this year, up 35% from 2009. Rising prices, inventory build-ups and higher demand in chips for complex electronics products such as smartphones, explain this robust growth  Tech research and advisory firm, Gartner projects global PC shipment to grow by 22% to 377 million units in 2010 while PC spending is expected to hit US$245.4 billion in 2010, up 12% from 2009  We think the prolonged under-investment in IT infrastructure is likely to end. With the improvement in corporate earnings, companies will be more inclined to increase spending on equipment with their free cash flow in hand  New products are set to fuel more growth. For instance, Microsoft‟s Windows 7 is likely to boost replacement demand while Apple‟s iPad and iPhone may spur another wave of demand in accessories sales, eventually driving up the sales of the entire technology supply chain Target Level by end 2012 = 160.72 (Est. 2012 EPS) x 18X (Fair PE) = 2,893 points Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations
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