‘Policy-making for digital development: the role of the government’ by Ismael Peña-Lopez

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  • 1. Policy-making Policy making for digital dev.: dev : the role of the governmentIsmael Peña-López Full Paper Poster O U i it f C t l i Open University of Catalonia @i tl i t @ictlogist Bibliography Internet Interdisciplinary Institute Contact Author Barcelona, Spain http://w.ictlogy.net/1847
  • 2. Hypotheses ypot eses Government prioritization of ICT Government prioritization of ICT Economic  Economic Importance of ICT to government  Incentive  vision of the future Regime Income Equality Education Stages of digital  H lth Health development Digital  LeapfroggersInfrastructures
  • 3. Methodology et odo ogy Analysis of VariablesOriginal Original correlations Relationships Data standardization between variables dichotomization Standardized Dichotomized Factor Analysis Factor Analysis ∅ variables variables Cluster Analysis Cl t A l i Stages of digital  Stages of digital 4 stages of digital dev. and  4 stages of digital dev. and development Characterization its characteristics Clusters (WITSA) WITSA countries ( ) Clusters (OECD) OECD countries Determinants of stages of LogisticL i ti regressions i digital development WITSA countries
  • 4. Non-hierarchical K-means cluster analysis.C uste s a d c uste ce t e a uesClusters and cluster centre values Significance of F in ANOVA for all variables: p<0.001 Graphic plots centre values values. 1 22 2 2 1 ‐ Broadband subscribers (per 100 people) 21 1,5 3 2 ‐ Personal computers (per 100 people) 3 ‐ Telephone mainlines (per 100 people) 1 4 ‐ Mobile phone subscribers (per 100 people) 20 4 0,5 5 ‐ International Internet bandwidth (bits per person) 6 ‐ Internet Hosts (per 10000 people) 19 0 5 7 ‐ Price basket for residential fixed line (US$ per month) 8 ‐ Telecommunications revenue (% GDP) -0,5 -0 5 9 ‐ GDP per Telecom Employee (US Dollars) 18 -1 6 10 ‐ Human Capital 11 ‐ Internet Access in Schools -1,5 12 ‐ Laws relating to ICT 17 7 13 ‐ Intellectual property protection 14 ‐ Govt procurement of advanced tech products 15 ‐ Secure Internet servers (per 1 million people) 16 ‐ Total Domains (per 100 people) 16 8 17 ‐ Availability of government online services 18 ‐ Internet users (per 100 people) 15 9 19 ‐ Total ICT Spending, Consumer (% of GDP) Cluster #1 20 ‐ Firm‐level technology absorption Cluster #2 14 10 21 ‐ Extent of business Internet use Cluster #3 22 ‐ ICT use and government efficiency Cluster #4 13 11 12 Cluster #5 Digital leaders (clusters #1 & #2; n = 1+14): USA, Australia, Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland,Japan, Rep. of Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, UK Digital strivers ( (cluster # n = 17): Brazil, Bulgaria, C #3; ) Chile, G Greece, Hungary, Italy, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama,Portugal, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Thailand, Tunisia, Uruguay, United Arab Emirates Digital laggards (cluster #4; n = 14): Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Peru,Philippines,Philippines Sri Lanka, Algeria, Cameroon Vietnam Zimbabwe Lanka Algeria Cameroon, Vietnam, Digital leapfroggers (cluster #5; n = 3): Jordan, South Africa, Senegal
  • 5. C a acte at o o d g ta stagesCharacterization of digital stages % of countries that scored “high” on indicator per cluster ( ): p<0 01 ( ): p<0 05 ( ): p<0 1 (*): p<0.01 (**): p<0.05 (***): p<0.1 1 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 6 50% 2 40% 40% 30% % 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 5 3 Leaders Strivers LaggardsInfrastr ct resInfrastructures Leafproggers 4 ICT Sector ICT Sector1 ‐ Broadband subscribers (per 100 people) (*) 1 ‐ Telecommunications revenue (% GDP) (*)2 ‐ Personal computers (per 100 people) (*) 2 ‐ High‐technology exports (% of manufactured exports) (**)3 ‐ Telephone mainlines (per 100 people) (*) 3 ‐ Telephone subscribers per employee (***)4 ‐ Mobile phone subscribers (per 100 people) (*) 4 ‐ Telephone employees (per 100 people) (**)5 ‐ Population covered by mobile telephony (%) (*) 5 ‐ Total full‐time telecommunications staff  (per 100 people) (*)6 ‐ International Internet bandwidth (bits per person) (*) 6 ‐ GDP per Telecom Employee (US Dollars) (*)7 ‐ Internet Hosts (per 10000 people) (*)8 ‐ Internet subscribers (per 100 inhabitants) (*)9 ‐ Residential monthly telephone subscription (US$) (**)10 ‐ Price basket for Internet (US$ per month) (**) ( p )( )11 ‐ Price basket for mobile (US$ per month) (**)12 ‐ Price basket for residential fixed line (US$ per month) (*)13 ‐ Telephone average cost of call to US (US$ per three minutes) (***)
  • 6. C a acte at o o d g ta stagesCharacterization of digital stages % of countries that scored “high” on indicator per cluster ( ): p<0 01 ( ): p<0 05 ( ): p<0 1 (*): p<0.01 (**): p<0.05 (***): p<0.1 1 1 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 5 30% 2 40% 20% 30% 10% 20% 0% 10% 0% 3 2 Leaders 4 3 Strivers LaggardsDigital LiteracDigital Literacy Leafproggers Polic and Reg lator frame ork Policy and Regulatory framework1 ‐ Enrolment in science. Tertiary. (per 100 people) (*) 1 ‐ Laws relating to ICT (*)2 ‐ Human Capital (*) 2 ‐ Intellectual property protection (*)3 ‐ Internet Access in Schools (*) 3 ‐ Level of competition ‐ DSL (**) 4  Level of competition  Cable modem ( ) 4 ‐ Level of competition – Cable modem (**) 5 ‐ Govt procurement of advanced tech products (*)
  • 7. C a acte at o o d g ta stagesCharacterization of digital stages % of countries that scored “high” on indicator per cluster ( ): p<0 01 ( ): p<0 05 ( ): p<0 1 (*): p<0.01 (**): p<0.05 (***): p<0.1 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Leaders Strivers LaggardsUsage Leafproggers Analog e indicators Analogue indicators1 ‐ Secure Internet servers (per 1 million people) (*) 1 ‐ GDP (***) 15 ‐ General Govt. final consumption expend. (% of GDP) (***)2 ‐ Total Domains (per 100 people) (*) 2 ‐ GDP Capita (*) 16 ‐ Economic Incentive Regime (*)3 ‐ Total ICT Spending, Retail Trade (% of GDP) (*) 3 ‐ GDP per capita, PPP (current international $) (*) 17 ‐ Innovation (*)4 ‐ Web Measure (*) 4  GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) ( ) 4 ‐ GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) (*) 18  Population in urban agglom.  1 M(% of total pop.) (*) 18 ‐ Population in urban agglom. > 1 M(% of total pop.) ( )5 ‐ Availability of government online services (*) 5 ‐ GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) (**) 19 ‐ Inequality‐10 (**)6 ‐ International outgoing telephone traffic (minutes) 6 ‐ HDI (*) 20 ‐ Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) (*) (per 100 people) (*)7 ‐ Internet users (per 100 people) (*) 7 ‐ Life expectancy at birth, total (years) (*) 21 ‐ Population growth (annual %) (***)8 ‐ E‐Participation (*) 8 ‐ Improved water source (% of pop. with access) (*) 22 ‐ Interest payments (% of GDP) (*)9 ‐ Total ICT Spending, Consumer (% of GDP) (*) p g, ( )( ) 9 ‐ Health Public Expenditure (% of govt. expenditure) (*) 23 ‐ Present value of debt (% of GNI) (**)10 ‐ Firm‐level technology absorption (*) 10 ‐ Health Public Expendit. (% of total Health expend.) (*) 24 ‐ GDP deflator (base year varies by country) (*)11 ‐ Extent of business Internet use (*) 11 ‐ School enrollment, primary (% net) (***) 25 ‐ Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) (*) 12 ‐ School enrollment, primary (% gross) (**) 26 ‐ Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %) (*) 13 ‐ Education Public Expendit. (% of govt. expend.) (***) 27 ‐ Tax revenue (% of GDP) (**) 14 ‐ Gross National Expenditure (% of GDP) (**)
  • 8. Determinants of being a digital leader/laggard ete a ts o be g a d g ta eade / agga d logit(being a digital leader) = β1 • GEN30 + β2 • GEN05 + β3 • GEN07 + β4 • GEN08 + β5 • LEGAL_D_04+ ε Binary l i i reg. w. di i l l d (1 i a di i l l d 0 i not a di i l l d ) as the d variable (N = 46) Bi logistic digital leaders is digital leader, is digital leader) h dep. i bl 46). B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Life expectancy at birth, total (GEN30) ‐.399 .208 3.664 1 .056 .671 Inequality‐20 (GEN05) q y ( ) ‐1.066 .578 3.403 1 .065 .344 Urban Population (%) (GEN07) .138 .079 3.030 1 .082 1.148 Economic Incentive Regime (GEN08) 1.671 .877 3.628 1 .057 5.317 Government prioritization of ICT (LEGAL_D_04) 2.869 1.737 2.727 1 .099 17.611 Correctly predicted cases 95.7% 96.8% (leaders) ( ) Nagelkerke R‐square .862 ‐2 Log likelihood 15.970 Chi‐Square (sig) 47.799 (.000) Cox & Snell R‐square .646 Hosmer and Lemeshow Test  Chi‐Square (sig) 1.546 (.981) logit(being a digital laggard) = β0 + β1 • GEN06 + β2 • GEN14 + β3 • INF_S_06 + β4 • LEGAL_D_01 + ε Binary logistic reg. w. digital laggards (1 is a digital laggard, 0 is not a digital laggard) as the dep. variable (N = 47). B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)8/21 Constant 38.214 16.958 5.078 1 .024 3.945∙1016 Inequality‐10 (GEN06) ‐.235 .138 2.909 1 .088 .790 Health Public Expend (% of total Health exp ) (GEN14) Expend. exp.) ‐.176 176 .081 081 4.665 4 665 1 .031 031 .839 839 Pop. covered by mobile telephony (%) (INF_S_06) ‐.100 .050 3.936 1 .047 .905 Importance of ICT to govt vision of future (LEGAL_D_01) ‐4.304 2.239 3.696 1 .055 .014 Constant 38.214 16.958 5.078 1 .024 3.945∙1016 Correctly predicted cases 94.6%     96.4% (laggards)   88.9 % (rest) Nagelkerke R‐square .823 ‐2 Log likelihood 11.391 Chi‐Square (sig) 29.663 (.000) Cox & Snell R‐square .551 Hosmer and Lemeshow Test  Chi‐Square (sig) 3.684 (.815)