Hyre Weekly Commentary


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Hyre Weekly Commentary

  1. 1. Hyre Weekly Commentary April 16, 2012The MarketsIt‟s back. Volatility, that is.Like a yo-yo, the market bounced around and the S&P 500 index ultimately ended down 2.0percent for the week and 3.4 percent from this year‟s closing high, according to Reuters. Despitethe drop, the market is still showing a solid 9.0 percent gain for the year.Once again, debt issues in Europe made headlines as Spain became the latest problem country.That, along with some disappointing economic growth data from China, helped spark the volatileweek. Because of its massive size, any slowdown in China is closely watched by marketparticipants.As a sign of the big swings this week, the Dow Jones Industrial closed the day up or down by atleast 100 points on four out of the five days last week, according to Barron‟s.Highlights from the week included: China‟s economy expanded at the weakest pace in over three years last quarter, missing consensus economic forecasts. Yields on debt in Spain jumped due to a weak debt auction, renewing fears that the European debt crisis could start affecting the global markets again. Several U.S. banks reported earnings that underwhelmed investors, resulting in weakness in financial stocks. U.S. inflation remained under control which may leave open the possibility for further Federal Reserve intervention should economic data deteriorate. Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Yahoo! FinanceThe quarterly corporate earnings season is now underway so we wouldn‟t be surprised to seemore market volatility as investors digest the latest read on the health of corporate America.
  2. 2. Data as of 4/13/12 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Standard & Poors 500 (Domestic Stocks) -2.0% 9.0% 3.8% 16.9% -1.2% 2.1% DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) -1.0 7.4 -13.8 12.5 -5.1 5.1 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.0 N/A 3.5 2.9 4.8 5.1 Gold (per ounce) 2.2 5.8 14.3 23.4 19.6 18.7 DJ-UBS Commodity Index -1.6 -0.9 -17.7 7.2 -4.4 3.8 DJ Equity All REIT TR Index -1.2 8.0 11.2 31.7 -0.7 9.5 Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron‟s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.THE “SHOVE IT” INDICATOR as highlighted by CNBC made a noteworthy gain inFebruary suggesting consumer confidence may be increasing. You‟re probably wondering,“What in the world is the „shove it‟ indicator?” Well, every month the government conducts aJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or “JOLTS” for short. One of the data points in theJOLTS report is the number of workers who quit their job as opposed to being laid off. And, inFebruary, for the first time since September 2008, the quitters were in the majority.What does this mean? Generally speaking, people who quit their job are typically more confidentthat there is another job waiting for them when they voluntarily leave a position. Nicholas Colas,chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group says, “Quits go hand-in-hand with consumerconfidence.”This positive JOLTS data point follows a disappointing government jobs report for the month ofMarch where only 120,000 new jobs were created. Also, the preliminary March reading of theUniversity of Michigan‟s consumer confidence survey showed a decline from the previousmonth. Analysts had expected confidence to stay flat, according to International Business Times.This conflicting economic data gave the bulls and the bears ample ammunition to bolster theirrespective case. And, conflicting data like this may lead to a continuation of the yo-yo asinvestors try to predict which direction the economy is headed.Weekly Focus – Think About It“Expectation is the root of all heartache.” --William ShakespeareBest regards,Jim Hyre, CFP®Registered Principal
  3. 3. P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you wouldlike us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we willask for their permission to be added.Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.* The Standard & Poors 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market ingeneral.* The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.* The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on theNational Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by www.usagold.com.* The DJ/AIG Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. TheIndex is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seenas a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate InvestmentTrust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict futureperformance.* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.* You cannot invest directly in an index.* Past performance does not guarantee future results. mc101507* This newsletter was prepared by PEAK for use by James Hyre, CFP®, registered principal* If you would prefer not to receive this Weekly Newsletter, please contact our office via e-mail or mail your request to 2074 ArlingtonAve, Upper Arlington, OH 43221.* The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developmentsreferred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee thatthe forgoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jim Hyre and not necessary those of RJFS or RaymondJames. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as asolicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security to herein. Tax or legal matters should be discussed with the appropriateprofessional.Jim Hyre, CFP®Registered PrincipalRaymond James Financial Services, Inc.Member FINRA/SIPC2074 Arlington Ave.Upper Arlington, OH 43221614.225.9400614.225.9400 Fax877.228.9515 Toll Freewww.hyreandassociates.comFind Us Here:Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by email, voice mail, fax orany alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. Email sent through theInternet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all email. Any informationprovided in this email has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James FinancialServices and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Anyinformation provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James FinancialServices and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in email. This email isintended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review,transmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other
  4. 4. than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and deletethe material from your computer. 2074 Arlington Avenue, Columbus, Ohio 43221 614.225.9400 local | 877.228.9515 toll-free | 614.225.9400 fax www.hyreandassociates.com | info@hyreandassociates.com Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.