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A Research and Advisory Group Focused on Human-Technology Co-Evolution and Its Implications for Global Business, Society and Politics

A Research and Advisory Group Focused on Human-Technology Co-Evolution and Its Implications for Global Business, Society and Politics

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  • We define our eras by the pattern of socio-technical relationsBeginning approximately 2 million years ago, we began to use stone tools to dominate other species, as we evolved into Homo Sapiens
  • The transition from hunting and gathering to settled agriculture involving crop cultivation began with Neolithic revolution around 10,000 BC and brought us into the agrarian age.
  • The Industrial Revolution began almost 300 years ago as technologies in manufacturing, resource extraction, power generation, and transportation enabled mass industrial society.
  • The Information Age began with the invention of the personal computer and Internet in 1970s that has given rise to mass communications and the knowledge economy.
  • We believe we’re entering the frontier of the Information Age which we call the Hybrid Age.
  • (These eras are additive)Integrated: In the Hybrid Age, information technology is integrating with equally important other fields biology, neuroscience, physics, mathematics which are themselves merging with each other.Ubiquitous: one consequence of this integration of technologies has also been their growing ubiquity. Technologies are now becoming all-pervasive with nanotech, sensors, and the Internet of ThingsIntelligent: it’s no longer a one-way relationship but has a two-way street where analytics enables technologies to give us intelligent feedbackSocial: our interaction with technology is increasingly life-like and we’ll begin to see technologies like robots and avatars as social entities Now we’re not only talking about nano, bio, neuro technologies are coming togetherIt’s not just informationSocio-technical eras are additiveThis makes them small enough
  • The Hybrid Age is unfolding as technologies merge with each other and humans merge with technology
  • Complex entanglement; diminishing distinction b/w human domain and tech domain
  • Complex entanglement; diminishing distinction b/w human domain and tech domainValues + technology design = good technic
  • Complex entanglement; diminishing distinction b/w human domain and tech domainThe underlying principle that will transform our major social systems in hybrid reality is generativity.Generative systems have a nearly endless capacity to connect users and enable them to create new values and outputs.
  • Main 21st century trends have tech at root: shrinking of space, convergence of economies, new forms of collaborationHybrid Age occurs against a backdrop of Geotechnology
  • It’s not a bad thing that more low-cost efficient robots are coming to the market – humans need to work with them by integrating them into ourselves and we need to keep moving up the value chain.KOREAA shortage of English teachers has compelled South Korea to take the next logical step and plan a $45 million rollout of robotic teaching assistants. The robotic teachers would deploy in 500 preschools by 2011, and 8,000 preschools and kindergartens by 2013. In the short run, that could help address the lack of English teachers in rural areas or remote islands. Learning English represents a necessary educational step for competitive South Korean students, and especially those aiming to study abroad at major universities in the U.S.But South Korean robotics experts have already begun predicting that the bots could replace more than 30,000 native English teachers in Korea's language institutes within the not-so distant future, according to the Korea Times. Most of those teachers hail from the U.S., Canada, UK and Australia.FOXCONNA million robots – that’s a LOT of robots. About half the population of Estonia.One million robots doing the labor formerly done by hand would double the company’s current workforce of around 920,000.MILITARY DRONESSource: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=post-911-military-tech-drones6000 in US Army/ 4000 deployed in S AsiaLEGAL ROBOTShttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html?pagewanted=allHATSUNE MIKUHatsuneMiku, a Japanese virtual pop idol whose computer-generated singing and holographic performances have sparked a new form of musical entertainment,http://singularityhub.com/2011/04/12/160000-watch-virtual-popstar-hatsune-miku-return-to-the-stage-video-2/
  • DeVincirobot — $1.39 million for the machine and $140,000 a year for the service contract, according to Intuitive
  • Blackstone discovery
  • It’s not a bad thing that more low-cost efficient robots are coming to the market – humans need to work with them by integrating them into ourselves and we need to keep moving up the value chain.KOREAA shortage of English teachers has compelled South Korea to take the next logical step and plan a $45 million rollout of robotic teaching assistants. The robotic teachers would deploy in 500 preschools by 2011, and 8,000 preschools and kindergartens by 2013. In the short run, that could help address the lack of English teachers in rural areas or remote islands. Learning English represents a necessary educational step for competitive South Korean students, and especially those aiming to study abroad at major universities in the U.S.But South Korean robotics experts have already begun predicting that the bots could replace more than 30,000 native English teachers in Korea's language institutes within the not-so distant future, according to the Korea Times. Most of those teachers hail from the U.S., Canada, UK and Australia.FOXCONNA million robots – that’s a LOT of robots. About half the population of Estonia.One million robots doing the labor formerly done by hand would double the company’s current workforce of around 920,000.MILITARY DRONESSource: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=post-911-military-tech-drones6000 in US Army/ 4000 deployed in S AsiaLEGAL ROBOTShttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html?pagewanted=allHATSUNE MIKUHatsuneMiku, a Japanese virtual pop idol whose computer-generated singing and holographic performances have sparked a new form of musical entertainment,http://singularityhub.com/2011/04/12/160000-watch-virtual-popstar-hatsune-miku-return-to-the-stage-video-2/
  • How to you become more than human?For us biotechnology has been linked close to medicine, which means prevent disease and treat diseaseBut we are moving to a point when drugs can make us alert longer, where the brain can directly link with the computer and so process huge amounts of information, where prosthetics can actually make us run faster, hear at different frequencies, and where we can live upto 150 years, and even have children later by restarting the biological clockThis is not therapy. This is enhancement. Becoming more than human. Integrating technology within ourselves and becoming a cyborg
  • In 2011, Anthony Atala, professor in the United States, used stem cells to print out a human kidney on stage.He has carefully transplanted bladders, trachea, muscle, blood vessels in patients. All off-the-shelf human organs.Today, he can print it out. Tomorrow, you can ELECTIVELY opt for a new one, a stronger heart.This is a new version of health – It includes enhancement!
  • Lab ResearchLegal/Human Trials/Commercialization$1 billion dollars and 10 yearsThree advantages: 1. Knowledge; 2. Exports; 3. Subsidizaiton
  • The case of Beijing Genomics Institute – world’s premier DNA sequencing institute. BGI will receive US$1.5 billion in “collaborative funds” over the next 10 years from the China Development Bank.128 IlluminaHiSeq 2000 SequencersWith better understanding of genetics, they are not only importing knowledge, they are investing in creating and innovating. Let me tell you, you can’t compete with an enhanced human. In the West, you will have to pay for it yourself or your government will give scholarships. I suggest you don’t just save for college education for your kids. You also save for enhancement.Facebook for China with young aggressive engineers/entrepreneurs/biologistsSigned up for every competition in the worldThen they bought the largest order of sequencers in the world from the USThen they got all the techniques – from USThen they quickly scanned the panda, xx,yyAre you seriously convinced yourself that they wont start innovating soon. Remember that no innovation took place in the US – it was in Europe. Now we hardly consider Europe the bastion of innovationSo what would they do with this knowledge?First, they’ll begin to manufacture drugs that they’ll sell to us. It’s a trillions dollar industry. But China will do then become a biotech superpowrMany of these will be cognitive enhancers which we will want to buy but will haggle over insurance.Second, they’ll subsidize their own people having these drugs.Why?
  • 109 countries and of the 290 people who had a perfect score, none of them were Stanford students.Democratization of education, the toughest type of education.
  • Rise of non-state actors that are doing things that does not fit in with the collective goodDean Kamen came up with a water filteration system that uses nanoparticles to reduce contamination at very low cost.With 3D printers and global knowledge, other people can build it and innovate on it.Global connected brain is also vulnerable. Organized criminals, cyberthiefs, The same person who can build a water filtration system can also print out a gun (which was recently done in the US)
  • Responsive environmentPersonalized to your needs/ optimized to better service delivery
  • 1 trillion quote: http://www.fastcompany.com/1769078/the-us-government-cant-get-it-together-to-embrace-smart-cities?partner=gnews
  • Geostrategy – who is investing/who can afford itHow are they doing it? Different approaches
  • - Songdo is held up to be the largest/most ambitious smart city project, but is actually the accidental marriage of a major real estate project led by the Korean government and Posco and an American property developer (Gale Int’l) that only recently began to brand itself as green- Near Incheon; partially reclaimed land; close to airport; alternative to Seoul- Partnership with Cisco as well; nexus of tech provider, local government, property developer- High # of LEED certified building; impeccable urban plan with concert halls, opera house, Chadwick School, Central Park, etc.- Political uncertainties due to Korean government; lottery system for properties; not cosmopolitan enough
  • Privacy: Privacy will be something that can only be bought because it wont be the default anymore.  Louis Brandeis (later a Supreme Court justice) and another young lawyer, Samuel D. Warren, published an article called 'The Right to Privacy' in the Harvard Law Review in 1890 arguing that the constitution and the common law allowed for the deduction of a general "right to privacy".[5]
  • The problem is that with ubiquitous machines, they are also getting smarterSo they don’t just watch you, they can be used to influence youThere is great research at Jeremy Baileson’s lab and at BJ Fogg’s lab at Stanford University in what is called Persuasive technology, or how technology can be used to change our behavior. At a minimum, we’ve seen this with Facebook which is just one big persuasive technology using experimental psychology to change our behavior.Machines that are intelligent are not cold and evil, they are smart and human-like, we engage with them in a natural way, and in doing so we become susceptible to them. Even vending machines in Japan know your age and gender. Billboards watch how long you are staring at them.Anyone who’s owned a rhumba will admit that they think the poor thing is getting tired … it’s a machine. Sherry Turkle wrote a great book about it too.An avatar that tells us to go the gym is more successful, and that’s a sign of positive behavioral change. That’s great.But these machines also know us. So imagine what Amazon could achieve. Not only does it know us better, but now it has constant access to us. Technolgy is a two-way street.Machine intelligence can also be used to influence Behavioral changeThe Good – healthy/ go on walks/ we are more amenable to avatars telling us to exercise than we are to ourselvesThe Bad – influence you to do all kinds of things/neural marketing/
  • Values can be codified into ethics, but remember that values change and vary over cultures. Some universal values should be codified however such as equity, transparency, accessOvercoming vast differentials in TechnikImproving income, human development, connectivityValues are dynamic and differ across cultures: eg. Japan - robots as substitutes for humans;
  • Transcript

    • 1. HYBRID REALITYAYESHA and PARAG KHANNA
    • 2. Socio-technical ErasDisruption ScenariosCities
    • 3. Socio-Technical Eras
    • 4. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age
    • 5. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age
    • 6. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age Industrial Age
    • 7. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age Industrial Age Information Age
    • 8. Humanity’s Socio-Technical Eras Stone Age Agrarian Age Industrial Age Information Age Hybrid Age
    • 9. Humanity’s Socio-Technical ErasHybrid Age integrated ubiquitous intelligent social
    • 10. The Hybrid Age: A New Socio-TechnicalNexus • Technologies merging with each other • Humans merging with technologies
    • 11. 3 Concepts to Understand the Hybrid Age Human-Technology Co-evolution• Technology evolution patterns – Brian Arthur: combinatorial technological evolution – Kevin Kelly: Technium includes man/nature• Human evolution patterns – Charles Darwin: modification by descent – Robert Fogel: techno-physio evolution• Hybrid Age: Evolution as Flow – Adrian Bejan: constructal law
    • 12. 3 Concepts to Understand the Hybrid Age Technik• Historical Usage – Lewis Mumford: culture, technology, people, processes, rules – Oswald Spengler: economic, political, cultural, educational systems• Technik in the Hybrid Age – Between scientific determinism and social constructivism – Capacity to harness emerging technologies
    • 13. 3 Concepts to Understand the Hybrid Age Generativity• The Structural Property of Capacity for Creation – Noam Chomsky: grammar from few rules – Jonathan Zittrain: capacity for unexpected users/products• Social Systems in Hybrid Age Exhibiting Generativity – Healthcare, education, economy, governance systems begin to exhibit expansive capacity to connect users and enable them to create new values and outputs• Generativity as Value-Neutral Property – Open to all. Potential for egalitarianism or monopolism
    • 14. The Foundations of Power
    • 15. GeoTechnology as a Driver in 21st CenturyMajor trends have technology at root:• Shift to multipolarity• Shrinking of space• Convergence of economies• Spread of innovation• New forms of collaboration
    • 16. Geo-technology drives global trends
    • 17. BUT Isn’t the Singularity Near…? Machines connect humans and Information Age process knowledge and instructions Machines become integrated, Hybrid Age ubiquitous, intelligent and social Machine intelligence becomes Singularity Age greater than human intelligence
    • 18. Disruptive Scenarios
    • 19. Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing
    • 20. Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing
    • 21. Scenario 1: DIY Manufacturing
    • 22. Scenario 1: DIY ManufacturingBeware of unexpectedcascading scenarios
    • 23. Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots $45 Million – South Korea investment in Robotic Teaching Assistants
    • 24. Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots 86% – prostate surgeries in the US in 2010 were robot-assisted
    • 25. Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots $100,000 – Cost of robot paralegals to examine 1.5 million documents
    • 26. Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots 160,000 – Fans who attended concert of Japanese holographic rock star
    • 27. Scenario 2: Rise of Intelligent Robots
    • 28. Scenario 3: Enhancing to Compete Drugs Prosthetics Brain computer interfaces Radical life extension
    • 29. Scenario 3: Enhancing to Compete Redefining Health Health = Prevention + Therapy + Enhancement
    • 30. Scenario 3: Enhancing to Compete Invention - West Commercialization - East
    • 31. Beijing Genomic Institute – more than meets the eye
    • 32. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain Sebastian Thrun 2007 – Professor at Stanford University
    • 33. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain Sebastian Thrun 2007 – Professor at Stanford University 2010 – He launched the Google Driverless car
    • 34. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain Sebastian Thrun 2007 – Professor at Stanford University 2010 – He launched the Google Driverless car 2011 – He taught a free online course on artificial intelligence to 160,000 students
    • 35. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain Sebastian Thrun 2007 – Professor at Stanford University 2010 – He launched the Google Driverless car 2011 – He taught a free online course on artificial intelligence to 160,000 students 2012 – Left Stanford and started Udacity
    • 36. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain
    • 37. Scenario 4: Emergence of the Global Brain
    • 38. Cities
    • 39. A New Age, A New Scale: The Rise of the City • Massive urbanization – 70% world population will live in cities by 2050 • Building of new cities – UN estimates we need 9000 new cities • Shift in identity – Daniel Bell: “city-zen” is the new citizen
    • 40. Networked Infrastructure and Internet of Things:City as a Platform Smart Homes Smart Traffic Smart Power Smart Profiles Smart Trees?
    • 41. City-wide DashboardSource: Accenture
    • 42. Business Opportunity$1.2 Trillion Dollars in 10 yearsSocial Impact OpportunityHealthcare, Education, Sustainability
    • 43. Rush to Create New Smart Cities/Districts and Retrofit Existing Cities Stockholm★ ★Skolkovo Toronto ★ Amsterdam ★ New York ★ PlanIT Valley ★ Chongqing ★SongdoAustin ★ Nano City ★ ★ Masdar ★ King Abdullah ★ ★ Wuxi Economic City Lavasa ★ Ho Chi Min City ★ Singapore ★ Rio ★
    • 44. New Cities: Songdo
    • 45. Efficiency vs. Big BrotherThe Good The Bad
    • 46. Influence vs. manipulationThe Good The Bad
    • 47. Achieving Good Technik
    • 48. The Path to Good TechnikEmbedding Values• Universal Rights: Access, transparency and equity• Is Internet a Human Right? (UN/Finland/France vs. Cerf)Techno-Pragmatism• Building capacity in leading sectors• Measurement: Income, Human Development, ConnectivityMindfulness about “Design”• Resolving the structure/agency tension• Filter Bubble and “Walled Gardens”Managing Your Identities• Personal Identity Ecology: Physical Individual, Virtual Avatar, Robotic Companion• Feedback Loops and Sense of Self
    • 49. Good vs. Bad TechnikGOOD• more economic participants• growing transparency and self-governance• lower cost of educationBAD• Gene co-efficient growing• Global class struggle• Collective digital system crash
    • 50. CONTACTPARAG KHANNAparag@hybridreality.meAYESHA KHANNAayesha@hybridreality.me