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Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development
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Fertility regulation population dynamics & national development

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  • 1. FERTILITY REGULATION POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA BY DR. O. A. ROBERTS OBGYN DEPT. UCH IBADAN
  • 2. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>Population dynamics: </li></ul><ul><li>Study of the size , composition , distribution and growth of populations. </li></ul><ul><li>Nigeria’s Demographic profile(2008 NDHS): </li></ul><ul><li>Land area = 923,768sq km </li></ul><ul><li>Crude pop density/sq km = 96 </li></ul><ul><li>Rural/Urban ratio = 70/30 </li></ul><ul><li>Crude birth rate (%) = 40 </li></ul><ul><li>Crude Death rate (%) = 16 </li></ul><ul><li>Population doubling time = 23 years. </li></ul>
  • 3. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>Nigeria’s population = 150 million. </li></ul><ul><li>Rate of Growth = 3.3% annually. </li></ul><ul><li>3 Factors causing high fertility in Nigeria: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Early commencement of marriage & childbearing. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>↑ proportion of sexually active♀, exposed to pregnancy risk but with low uptake of contraception. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>↓ of spacing between births, 2 o to shorter breastfeeding months. </li></ul></ul>
  • 4. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>Adolescent childbearing has –ve health & socioeconomic consequences. </li></ul><ul><li>Demographic consequences operate through fertility rather than mortality. </li></ul><ul><li>↑ Population growth rate is due to younger average childbearing age (even if TFR is the same). </li></ul><ul><li>In societies where childbearing is postponed till age 30, completed family size is reduced for physiological (becoming infertile) & volitional reasons. </li></ul>
  • 5. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>The following examples of population growth with six children per couple compare generation times of 20 years and 30 years: </li></ul><ul><li>2 -------------6 -------------18 -------------54 (20 years)      (20 years)       (20 years) 80 people in 60 years. </li></ul><ul><li>2 -----------------6------------------ 18 (30 years)         (30 years) 26 people in 60 years. </li></ul>
  • 6. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>Increasing the generation interval from 20 to 30 years reduces the population growth from 80 to 26 during a 60 year period </li></ul><ul><li>A percent decrease of 67.5%. </li></ul><ul><li>A longer generation interval significantly slows the growth of a population. </li></ul>
  • 7. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>The Age structure of any population is determined by its history of Fertility, Mortality, Migration & Emigration. </li></ul><ul><li>If # of births + # of immigrants = # of deaths + # of emigrants (Zero annual pop growth rate). </li></ul><ul><li>In Nigeria (as well as other dev. Nations), the Pyramid has a wider base than the middle or top. </li></ul><ul><li>Half of the population are aged < 25. </li></ul><ul><li>In developed countries the profile is nearly vertical. </li></ul><ul><li>This is due to fertility not mortality. </li></ul>
  • 8. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>AGE STRUCTURE </li></ul><ul><li>< 1 year = 4.4 </li></ul><ul><li>< 4 years = 18.0 </li></ul><ul><li>< 14 years = 25.6 </li></ul><ul><li>15–64 years = 49.6 </li></ul><ul><li>> 65 years = 2.4 </li></ul>
  • 9. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>UNMET NEED FOR FAMILY PLANNING </li></ul><ul><li>The proportion of fecund women who wish to space their next birth or to limit childbearing altogether but not using contraception </li></ul><ul><li>These women are considered to have an unmet need for family planning. </li></ul><ul><li>As at 2008, unmet needs was 20% </li></ul><ul><li>Spacing = 13% </li></ul><ul><li>Limiting = 7% </li></ul>
  • 10. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>When schedules of mortality & fertility remain constant, the age distribution in that population is constant = Stable population. </li></ul><ul><li>If death rate = Fertility rate, then growth rate is zero & the population is stationary. </li></ul><ul><li>Life expectation (E)= Total person-yrs lived No of births (B) Total person-years lived by the pop.=E× B </li></ul><ul><li>If annual births are equal & mortality constant, age distribn = same as Life table </li></ul><ul><li>With ↑fertility populatn momentum is greater </li></ul>
  • 11. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>In National populations of Western Europe a demographic transition was noticed in which a ↓fall in mortality was followed by a ↓in fertility but this was not always the case </li></ul><ul><li>Reasons: Industrial revolution & ↑in living standards, education & Public health measures. </li></ul><ul><li>The lowering of fertility was also linked to indiv. Decisions on adoption of family limitation. </li></ul><ul><li>Nigeria has not reached this phase. </li></ul>
  • 12. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>The 2003 (3 rd National survey) Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) is based on a nationally representative sample of 7,000 households – all ♀ 15-49 & all ♂ 15-59 1n 1/3 of the households were interviewed. </li></ul><ul><li>SUMMARY: </li></ul><ul><li>Total fertility rate = 5.7 (rural 6.3 vs urban 4.7). </li></ul><ul><li>Highest in the North lowest in South. </li></ul><ul><li>↑ ideal no. of children (wanted fert. rate) is 6.7 for all ♀ (8.6 & 10.6 all♂, Married resp) </li></ul>
  • 13. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) Urban Rural Total </li></ul><ul><li>Mean birth interval 31 months </li></ul><ul><li>♀ age15-19 childbearing 17% 30% - </li></ul><ul><li>Current use of FP method - - 13% </li></ul><ul><li>Any modern method - - 10% </li></ul><ul><li>Source of FP methods(Private vs Public) 58% vs 23%. </li></ul><ul><li>Unmet need for FP (spacers/limiters) 20% </li></ul>
  • 14. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>Urban Rural Total </li></ul><ul><li>Infant mort. rate/1000 ↑ 81 121 100 </li></ul><ul><li><5 mort. rate/1000 ↑ - - 201 </li></ul><ul><li>↓ Vacc. rate children 12-23m - - 13% </li></ul><ul><li>% of <5 breastfed 97% </li></ul><ul><li>Median duration any breastfeeding 18.6mnths </li></ul><ul><li>’’ ’’ Exclusive ’’ 1/2mnth. </li></ul><ul><li>% of stunted children 41% </li></ul><ul><li>% of wasted children 14% </li></ul><ul><li>% of underweight children 23% </li></ul>
  • 15. POPULATION DYNAMICS & NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT – EMPHASIS NIGERIA <ul><li>Maternal care. </li></ul><ul><li>% of ♀ who received some ANC 63% </li></ul><ul><li>No. of births occurring at home 66% </li></ul><ul><li>% of women without education 42% </li></ul><ul><li>% of men without education 22% </li></ul>
  • 16. <ul><li>THANK </li></ul><ul><li> YOU </li></ul>

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