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4563 02 Office Presentation Final
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4563 02 Office Presentation Final

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2008 SIOR Metro Market Forecast Office Presentation

2008 SIOR Metro Market Forecast Office Presentation

Published in: Business, Real Estate
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  • Transcript

    • 1. St. Louis Office Market Michael J. Wolken, SIOR Principal
    • 2. Office Committee Dennis DeSantis, SIOR Gateway Commercial, a Cushman & Wakefield Alliance Dave Morris, SIOR Gundaker Commercial Scott Bazoian, SIOR Colliers Turley Martin Tucker Lynn Schenck, SIOR CB Richard Ellis
    • 3. Office Presentation
      • Review 2007 Predictions
      • Significant Transactions
      • Tenants in the Market
      • Taxes, Tenant Improvements & Trends
      • 2008 Predictions
    • 4. 2007 Predictions
      • Area Absorption 1.35 Million SF
      • Area Vacancy Rate Dropping
      • Build-to-Suits and Health Care
    • 5. Good to Great in 2008?
    • 6. Large Tenants Moved in 2007 CityPlace Six 140,500 SF 40 West II Building 114,000 SF
    • 7. Large Tenants Moved in 2007 1881 Pine Street 110,00 SF NorthPark 90,000 SF
    • 8. Large Tenants Considering Options in 2008 Total potential impact – 1,000,000 SF
    • 9. Tenant by Size Range
    • 10. Tenants by Lease Expiration
    • 11. Office Employment Growth 3.2% 3.8% 7% St. Louis 2.2% 9% 11.2% Washington 9.9% 8.3% 18.2% Tampa/St. Petersburg 10.6% 4.4% 15% Seattle/Puget Sound 7.3% 1.5% 8.8% New York City 5.9% 2.2% 8.1% Los Angeles 3.7% 4.3% 8% Denver 10.2% 6.4% 16.6% Dallas/Ft. Worth 3.8% 3.8% 7.6% Chicago 5.2% 2.5% 7.7% Boston 2.6% 6.3% 8.9% Atlanta Difference Inventory Growth Employment Growth Market
    • 12. Vacancy Report 9.9% 7.2% 3.9% 9.5% 6.2% 6.5% 16.5% Class A 12% St. Louis Metro 12% St. Charles County 7.5% South County 17.9% North County 8.7% West County 10% Clayton 18.5% Downtown All Classes Submarket
    • 13. Vacancy Report
      • 2007 Absorption 1.4 Million SF
      • 5.4 Million SF Still Vacant
    • 14. 2008 New Construction The Meridian at Brentwood 180,000 SF Lakeside Crossing Office One 127,000 SF
    • 15. 2008 New Construction Central Park Square I 100,000 SF 825 Maryville Office 75,000 SF 580,000 square feet
    • 16. Potential Major Office Developments 2008 and Beyond Ballpark Village Lakeside Crossing 2 Highlands II
    • 17. Potential Clayton Developments
      • Centene Site
      • Apex Oil Site
      • Koman Properties
      • Montgomery Bank
      • Conrad Properties
      • Orchard Development
      • Mehlman
      • Brown Shoe
      Potential new office – 1.5 – 2 million square feet
    • 18. Taxes – T.I. and Trends
      • A major component of office building operating expenses is real estate taxes. As a percent of the total, tenants are now paying 30% plus, including the surcharge. It is one of the items that erodes the value.
      • Five years ago, the typical tenant finish was $15 to $20 per square foot. We are now heading to $25 to $35 per square foot for new Class A buildings.
      $3.69 $682,223 1983-89 Old Town Exec Ctr $5.84 $1,900,000 2001 The Plaza in Clayton $3.30 $1,908,877 1965-70 Pierre Laclede I & II $3.68 $640,532 1982 Bemiston Tower PSF 2007 Tax Year Built Building
    • 19. 2008 Predictions
      • The four new projects currently under construction will be significantly leased at the end of 2008.
      • The financing market will have a profound negative effect on new office construction.
      • Speculative office is a distant memory.
      • Barring a recession, all Classes of office buildings should show a decrease in their vacancy.
    • 20. Good
    • 21. Great
    • 22.  
    • 23. Thank You

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