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AN INVESTIGATION OF CYCLISTS’ PREFERENCE FOR DIFFERENT JUNCTION TYPES
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AN INVESTIGATION OF CYCLISTS’ PREFERENCE FOR DIFFERENT JUNCTION TYPES

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The aim is to quantify how people trade-off to avoid junctions by taking additional time along routes with and without cycle facilities

The aim is to quantify how people trade-off to avoid junctions by taking additional time along routes with and without cycle facilities

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AN INVESTIGATION OF CYCLISTS’ PREFERENCE FOR DIFFERENT JUNCTION TYPES AN INVESTIGATION OF CYCLISTS’ PREFERENCE FOR DIFFERENT JUNCTION TYPES Presentation Transcript

  • AN INVESTIGATION OF CYCLISTS’ PREFERENCE FOR DIFFERENT JUNCTION TYPES
    • Presentation by:
    • MD NURUL HUDA
    • Supervisor:
    • Dr. John Parkin
    • Institute for Transport Studies
    • The University of Leeds
    • 05 September 2005
    • Minister for Local Transport says ( NCS, DfT 2005)
      • Bicycle underrated, underused and declining in UK
      • 2% of all trips (Sweden 10%, Germany 11%, Switzerland 15%, Denmark 18%)
      • But higher sales show strong interest in cycling
    • 2001 census (ITS 2005a)
      • Cycling 2.89% of all modes
      • Only 13.6% of the users were regular cyclists
    Level of cycle use
  • Why cycle?
    • Problems
    • Increasing car use
    • Congestion
    • Pollution
    • Scarce road and parking space
    • Need for sustainable transport
    • Prospects
    • Cycling has a role in transport policy
    • Suits short trip
    • Good for door to door trip along with PT
    • Healthy & enjoyable
    • Economic & efficient
  • Problems to cycle
    • Road hazard –traffic, road features
    • Bicycles are vulnerable
    • Cycling in junction is difficult
    • Taking right turns - more difficult
    • Motorists undermine cycles
    • Route facility sometimes discontinue where needs most
  • Aim and objectives
    • Aim To quantify how people trade-off to avoid junctions by taking additional time along routes with and without cycle facilities
    • Objectives
    • To investigate how people feel approaching junctions
    • To determine the relative importance of features of junctions
    • To determine how cycle facilities compensate right turn risks at junctions at the cost of additional time
    • To identify the person type factors that adds this influence.
  •      Time   Risk  Traffic    Parkin (2004)  Abraham, McMillan, Brownlee & Hunt (2000)   Ortuzer, Iacobelli & Valeze (2000)  Wardman, Page, Tight & Sui (2000)    Sui, Wardman, Page & Tight (2000)  Wardman, Hatfield & Page (1997)   Hopkinson & Wardman (1996)  Bovy & Bradley (1985)   Waldman (1977) Person type Facility Hilliness Danger Previous works
  • Stated preference (1)
    • Well suited to analyse cycle facilities on relatively small samples (Wardman et al. 1997)
    • Hypothetical scenarios offered to choose the best
    • Choice based SP:
      • ‘ the easiest, quicker and more natural’ ( Ortúzar 2000)
      • widely accepted and used (Pearmain and Kroes 1991)
    • Utility function – linear
    • Components – deterministic & stochastic
    • Choice depends on deterministic component
    • Co-efficient based on residual variation
    • The higher the random error, the lower the co-efficient (Wardman et al. 2000)
    • Goodness of fit - rho-squared, 0.2~0.4 good fit
    • Robustness of coefficients
      • statistical significance,
      • i.e. T-ratio (= co-eff./standard error)
      • sign, values of the coefficients
    • Outputs:
      • coefficient of estimates
      • t -statistics and standard errors
      • Log-Likelihood measure
      • rho squared
      • correlation matrix
    • Assumptions
      • choice depends on limited factors, others constant
      • relationship between factors and probability of choice
      • functional form
    Stated preference (2)
  • Methodology
    • Data collection
      • Questionnaire interview – face to face
      • Aided by - choice cards, videos
    • Sample population - cyclists in the UK
    • Questionnaire
      • cycling habit - frequency and purpose
      • choice exercises – difference design
      • person types
      • comments
      • testing questionnaire & refine
    • Main survey
    • Analysis - database and use of software
  • Grouping of video clips Source: Parkin (2004) Note: Clips, numbers coloured, were used in the survey 39 Back street 6, 8, 10 , 28, 31, 32, 36, 37 No cycle facility 19, 20, 49, 50 , 51, 54 Cycle lane 31 Priority 6, 19, 32, 36, 51 Straight on 18 Bus lane 6, 8 , 19, 20 Signalised junction 8, 20, 31, 37 , 50 Right turn 38 Res. street 32, 36, 37 , 50 , 51 Roundabout Clips Types Clips Types Clips Types Turns Facilities Junctions
  • Attributes and levels (1)
      • Time
      • Base time - 15 minutes, cycle time to work
      • (Wardman et al, 2000)
      • Additional 10 minutes - for variation in trips
      • Three levels: 18, 21 and 25 minutes
        • Level 0 15-18 = - 3 minutes difference
        • Level 1 15-21 = - 6 minutes difference
        • Level 2 15-25 = -10 minutes difference
    • Route facility
    • Part of the trip may take enhanced route facilities
    • Facilities considered:
    • – bus lane, cycle lane, residential street
    • – these cover half the trip
    • Three levels:
        • Level 0 50% No facility + 50% bus lane
        • Level 1 50% No facility + 50% cycle lane
        • Level 2 50% No facility + 50% residential street
    Attributes and levels (2)
    • Junctions
    • Additional penalty for negotiating junctions
    • Worse with crossing conflicts and right turn
    • Three levels –
        • Level 0 No right turn
        • Level 1 Right turn at signals
        • Level 2 Right turn at roundabout
    Attributes and levels (3)
    • Option 1
    • Time-15 min
    • Turn-No right turn
    • Right turn signal
    • Right turn RA
    • Facility- Absent
    • Option 2
    • Time-18/21/25 min
    • Turn- Absent
    • Facility- Bus lane
    • Cycle lane
    • Residential street
    Organisation of choice
  • Respondents at a glance
    • Total respondents = 37 ( all can cycle)
    • Do not cycle = 02
    • Female = 06
    • Young (17~ 34 yrs) = 22 (av. age=26.4 yrs)
    • Old (45~65 yrs) = 08 (av. age=53.4 yrs)
    • Regular cyclist = 29 (>1~2 times/wk )
    • Commuters = 28
    • No car owner = 23
    • Urban = 22
  • Comments by the respondents (1)
    • Cycle lanes
      • Not always suitable, fine if suits speed & direction
      • Dangerous - car drivers do not pay attention
      • ASL important and dangerous without it
      • More clearly defined space, sufficiently wider
    • Bus lanes
      • Fine, if no buses around
      • Cyclists get squeezed, hence dangerous
      • Buses tend to get off and push
    • Often avoid residential streets
      • Fear of mugging, esp. in evening times
      • Sometimes traffic undisciplined
    • Roundabout and signalised junctions
      • Roundabouts are dangerous, often difficult
      • Mini roundabout fine
      • Signalised junction okay
    • General points
      • Longer routes are worth taking to avoid junctions
      • Negotiate junctions like motorists keeping eye contact
      • More signals required at junctions
      • Heavier traffic on routes in practical than shown in videos
    Comments by the respondents (2)
  • Model results (p/1) Contd. (T-ratio in brackets) -0.7059 (-2.5) - -0.7235 (-2.6) - -0.6968 (-2.6) - Bus Lane (DBL) - -0.06715 (-2.5) - -0.0686 (-2.5) - -0.06617 (-2.5) Time + Bus Lane (TIBL) -0.7713 (-7.6) -0.7519 (-7.5) -0.7612 (-7.6) -0.741 (-7.4) -0.7315 (-7.5) -0.7121 (-7.4) Time + no Facility ( TIRNF) 3.886 (7.3) 3.803 (7.1) 3.744 (7.1) 3.659 (6.9) 3.376 (7.3) 3.294 (7.1) Constant 0.2051 0.2047 0.1937 0.1931 0.1677 0.1671 Rho-sq (C) -178.7253 -178.8208 -181.2982 -181.432 -187.143 -187.2676 LL (F) 331 331 331 331 331 331 Observations Facility Time Facility Time Facility Time Multipl. model Additive model Base model Items
  • Model results (p/2) Note: 1. RTS – Right turn at signal (T-ratio in brackets) 1.369 (2.5) 1.369 (2.5) NCO*RTS -1.378 (-2.4) -1.384 (-2.5) YOUNG*RTS 1 -0.6833 (-3.8) -0.6848 (-3.8) -0.8862 (-3.1) -0.8846 (-3.1) No car owner cyclists (NCO) 0.8689 (2.5) 0.8753 (2.5) - - YOUNG - - 0.5351 (2.0) 0.5341 (2.0) Urban cyclists (URB) Facility Time Facility Time Facility Time Multi. model Additive model Base model Item
  • Rho squared Constant in models Model results (p/3) 18.74 0.2051 0.2524 17.23 0.2047 0.2473 Multiplicative 8.76 0.1937 0.2123 9.17 0.1931 0.2126 Additive 4.28 0.1677 0.1752 4.79 0.1671 0.1755 Base Drop (%) Final Initial Drop (%) Final Initial Facility Time Models -2.17 3.886 3.972 -1.58 3.803 3.864 Multiplicative 5.17 3.744 3.56 7.97 3.659 3.389 Additive 1.63 3.376 3.322 4.34 3.294 3.157 Base Pick up (%) final initial Pick up (%) final initial Facility Time Models
  • Conclusion
    • Time on no facility road, time on bus lane, bus lane itself and ‘no car owners’ are statistically significant
    • Urban and young and are found significant in additive and multiplicative models respectively
    • Urban people are used to cycle junctions
    • Young people accept to cycle, but do not like to ride signalised junctions
    • NCO love not to cycle, they find signalised junctions better
    • Right turns and cycle facility have no significance, may be due to individual preferences in the sample
  • Limitations
    • Some interviewee had to remind to opt based on clips
    • Few of them looked for clues to respondent
    • Some experience more traffic than in videos
    • Some chose facilities, although they would not prefer while cycling
    • Number of respondents would be more if some cyclists (esp. female) did not avoid
    • Much earlier contact to interviewees was necessary
    • Time consuming, overall survey time was much longer
    • Lack of balance between sex, age and cycling habit
  • Recommendations
    • Further studies to include priority, T and staggered junctions; also lane facilities at junctions
    • To investigate why the constant picks up on expansion of models
    • To balance between sexes and age, also between occasional and regular cyclists
  • Thank you!!