Future Internet Strategy in Taiwan

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Future Internet Strategy in Taiwan

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Future Internet Strategy in Taiwan

  1. 1. Future Internet Strategyin TaiwanDr. Kenny HuangTWNIC BoD; APNIC ECFuture Internet Policy Program Leaderhuangk@mindext.com 1
  2. 2. Issue: Internet Hourglass Model Everything on IPRobust tochanges Fragile to changes IP on Everything David Talbot. (2005). The Internet is Broken. MIT Technology Review. “The Net’s basic flaws cost firms billions, impede innovation, and threaten national security. It’s time for a clean-slate approach” 2
  3. 3. International Foresight Research Comparison Source: PRESS (2008) 3
  4. 4. Foresight Research Deliveries Source: PRESS (2008) 4
  5. 5. Japan Science & Technology Base Plan ForesightMethodology Source: NISTEP (2003) 5
  6. 6. Purpose of the research What policies should be recommended when deciding to engage Future Internet research in Taiwan How much agreement is there among invited experts about the relative importance of these proposed Future Internet policies Which of the proposed policies are not considered important by the invited experts 6
  7. 7. Method of Strategic Planning EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT Introduction Goals that meet the real needs of Citizens and Businesses VisionRecent and urgent tasks Strategy Strategic Goals Цели Objectives Action of state Цели Tasks administration in order to fulfill the Action Plan Цели Metrics Цели Stages strategic goals Цели Projects Цели Phases 7
  8. 8. Why Delphi Method The research required a methodology that would identify the variables and aid participants in ranking and selecting important variables. Because consensus about the relative importance of variables was an objective, the Delphi technique was selected. It parallels the methods employed in previous IT policy and general consensus research. Brancheau, “Key issues in information systems management: A Delphi Study of IS Executives and Corporate general Managers”, Working Paper Series-MISRC-WP-87-09, University of Minnesota. Dickson, “Key information Issues for the 1980’s”, MIS Quarterly Vol 8, No 3, 1984, pp135- 159 8
  9. 9. Flow Chart for Delphi method Start Problem Definition Select panel members based on the expertise required Prepare and distribute questionnaire Analyze questionnaire response Yes Has a consensus been reached No Provide requested information and tabulated response Develop final report 9
  10. 10. AHP: Analytical Hierarchy Process GOAL CRITERIA ALTERNATIVES •Founded by Saaty in 1980. •It is a popular and widely used method for multi-criteria decision making. •Allows the use of qualitative, as well as quantitative criteria in evaluation. •Wide range of applications exists 10
  11. 11. Policy & Strategy Deliberation of Future Internet (FI)Policy Deliberation Explanation Literature Referencesfrom the LiteratureArchitecture research Research on architectural elements FIND, FIRE, AKARIAdvanced apps research Research on advanced services/apps CNGI, GEANT, AKARIFI Forum Forum for FI information sharing AsiaFI, FIA, FIFAdvanced R&E network Advanced R&E infrastructure development Internet2, APAN, GEANTFI experimental research Experiment and testbed operation GENI,GEANT, CNGIFI governance research Research on Future Internet governance FP7, FIRE, FIFFI social and policy research Research on social and politic impact FP7, FIREFI Economic research Research on economic impact FP7, FIREStrategy Deliberation Explanation Literature Referencesfrom the LiteratureClean Slate Approach TCP/IP architectural redesign FIND, FIRE, AKARIIncremental Approach Improve things based on TCP/IP architecture CNGI 11
  12. 12. Ranking Data by Delphi Round Round 1 Round 2 Level of Importance Rank Policy Ranking Mean Std % Mean Std % Rank Dev Top 3 Rank Dev Top 3IMPORTANT 1 Architecture research 2.69 1.70 61.5 2 Advanced apps research 3.31 1.65 53.8MODERATELY IMPORTANT 3 FI Forum 3.17 2.41 53.8 4 Advanced R&E network 3.25 1.48 46.2 5 FI experimental research 3.31 1.75 76.9UNIMPORTANT 6 FI governance research 5.67 1.78 7.7 7 FI social and policy research 5.83 2.37 15.4 8 FI Economics research 5.50 1.83 7.7 12
  13. 13. Delphi Mean Rank 6 7 6 8 5 1 Network architecture research 2 Advanced services/apps researchMean Rank 3 FI Forum 4 4 Advanced R&E network 5 Network experiment research 5 2 4 6 FI governance research 3 3 7 FI social & policy research 1 8 FI economics research 2 ROUND1 ROUND2 13
  14. 14. Delphi Percentage in Top Three 65 1 55 3 2Percentage in Top Three 1 Network architecture research 45 4 2 Advanced services/apps research 3 FI Forum 35 4 Advanced R&E network 5 Network experiment research 25 6 FI governance research 7 FI social & policy research 15 7 8 FI economics research 8 6 5 ROUND1 ROUND2 14
  15. 15. Delphi Standard Deviation 2.4 3 7 1 Network architecture researchStandard Deviation 2.2 2 Advanced services/apps research 3 FI Forum 2 4 Advanced R&E network 8 5 Network experiment research 1.8 6 5 6 FI governance research 1 2 7 FI social & policy research 1.6 8 FI economics research 4 1.4 ROUND1 ROUND2 15
  16. 16. Nonparametric Statistics Friedman Test Item Gov Research Business Ri Li1 Architecture research 2 2 1 5 52 Advanced apps research 4 1 2 7 143 FI Forum 1 5 2 8 244 Advanced R&E network 3 4 2 9 275 FI experimental research 5 3 5 13 656 FI governance research 7 6 6 19 1147 FI social and policy research 7 7 7 21 1478 FI Economics research 6 8 7 21 168 16
  17. 17. Friedman Test Computation H0: There is no difference between the proposed policies H1: There is a difference between the proposed policies α = 0.05 df = 7 Critical Value X2 (0.95, 7)=14.0671 If X2 is greater than 14.0671: Reject the null hypothesis After computation, X2 =9.61 X2 is not greater than 14.0671: do not reject the null hypothesis Conclusion: There is no statistical difference among the proposed policies 17
  18. 18. Weight-Ranking from Government Government Item 1 2 3 Weight RankFI Forum 1 1 3 22 1FI architecture research 1 4 1 21 2FI Advanced R&E network 2 2 4 19 3FI Advanced apps research 3 5 2 17 4FI experimental research 3 3 6 15 5FI economics research 4 8 5 10 6FI social & policy research 4 7 7 9 7FI governance research 4 6 8 9 7 18
  19. 19. 19 15.25 Mean 39.1 FI governanceNonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (Gov) FI governance 9 research research 90% confidence level , r= 3.594 39.1 FI social & policy 9 research FI social & policy research Low Priority 27.6 FI economics 10 research FI economics research FI experiment 0.1 15 research FI experiment research FI advanced apps Median 3.1 17 research FI advanced apps research N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=5.37 14.1 Advanced R&E 19 Advanced R&E network network 33.1 FI architecture 21 FI architecture research research 18.84 >= r >=11.66 High Priority 45.6 22 FI forum FI forum weight Sj2 Government
  20. 20. Weight Ranking from Research Community Research Item 1 2 3 4 5 Weight RankFI advanced apps research 3 3 1 1 5 32 1FI architecture research 2 2 4 5 1 31 2FI experiment research 4 5 2 2 5 27 3Advanced R&E network 4 3 4 1 24 4FI forum 1 8 1 5 21 5FI governance research 6 7 3 4 16 6FI social & policy research 8 6 7 1 14 7FI economics research 7 5 6 5 13 8 20
  21. 21. 21 22.25 MeanNonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (Research) FI economics research 85.6 FI economics 13 research 90% confidence level, r = 5.009 FI social & policy 68.1 FI social & policy research Low Priority 14 research FI governance research 39.1 FI governance 16 research FI forum 1.6 21 FI forum Advanced R&E Advanced R&E network 3.1 24 network N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=7.48 Median FI experiment research 22.6 FI experiment 27 research FI architecture 76.6 FI architecture research 31 research High Priority 27.26 >= r >=17.24 FI advanced apps 95.1 FI advanced apps research 32 research weight Sj2 Research community
  22. 22. Weight Ranking from Business Business Item 1 2 3 4 5 Weight RankFI architecture research 1 5 1 5 3 30 1FI advanced apps research 2 4 5 6 1 27 2Advanced R&E network 3 3 3 7 2 27 2FI forum 4 1 6 3 4 27 2FI experiment research 6 2 2 4 5 26 5FI governance research 7 5 7 1 6 19 6FI social & policy research 8 5 8 2 7 15 7FI economics research 5 5 4 8 8 15 7 22
  23. 23. 23 23.25 MeanNonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (Business) 68.1 FI economics research 15 FI economics research 90% confidence level, r = 3.999 FI social & policy 68.1 FI social & policy 15 research research Low Priority FI governance 18.1 FI governance 19 research research FI experiment FI experiment 7.6 26 research research Median 14.1 FI Forum 27 FI Forum N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=5.97 Advanced R&E 14.1 Advanced R&E 27 network network FI advanced apps 14.1 FI advanced apps 27 research High Priority research 27.25 >= r >=19.25 FI architecture 45.6 FI architecture 30 research research weight Sj2 Business
  24. 24. Delphi Weight Ranking for All Participants weighItem G1 G2 G3 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Rank tFI architecture research 1 4 1 2 2 4 5 1 1 5 1 5 3 82 1FI advanced apps 3 5 2 3 3 1 1 5 2 4 5 6 1 76 2researchFI forum 1 1 3 1 8 1 5 4 1 6 3 4 70 3Advanced R&E network 2 2 4 4 3 4 1 3 3 3 7 2 70 4FI experiment research 3 3 6 4 5 2 2 5 6 2 2 4 5 68 5FI governance research 4 6 8 6 7 3 4 7 5 7 1 6 44 6FI social & policy 4 7 7 8 6 7 1 8 5 8 2 7 38 7researchFI economics research 4 8 5 7 5 6 5 5 5 4 8 8 38 8 24
  25. 25. 25 60.75 Mean 217.6 FI economics FI economics 90% confidence level, r = 11.9383 38Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (all) research research 217.6 FI social & policy FI social & policy 38 research research Low Priority FI governance 430.6 FI governance 44 research research 2002.6 FI experiment FI experiment 68 research research 2185.6 Advanced R&E Advanced R&E 70 network network N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=17.82 Median 2185.6 FI forum 70 FI forum 2782.6 FI advanced apps FI advanced apps 76 research High Priority research 72.69 >= r >= 48.81 3451.6 FI architecture FI architecture 82 research research weight Sj2 All participants
  26. 26. AHP Computational Result Taiwan Future Internet Strategy 0.495 Clean Slate 0.505 Incremental Approach Inconsistency=0.00 with 0 missing judgments 26
  27. 27. Delphi Methodology – Nonparametric Statistics There is no statistical difference Friedman among the Test policies Nonparametric Statistics Prioritize all policy item Jackknife Test 27
  28. 28. Policy Recommendations Weight Ranking 85 80 75 70 65 60 Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test 28
  29. 29. Government Role & Responsibility in High-Tech Policy H Strengthen Develop fair industrialIMPORTANCEIMPORTANCE competition Risk mitigation competitive environment advantage M Deprioritize and source alternative technologies L L M H RISK 29
  30. 30. Thank You 30

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