Thailand And Technology Trends

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A talk given at the "Gartner Predicts 2010" at the Conrad Hotel, Bangkok. January 29, 2010

Thailand And Technology Trends

  1. 1. Gartner Predicts 2010 Local Program Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool Vice President, National Science and Technology Development Agency 29 January 2010 Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010
  2. 2. Agenda • General Trends facing Thailand • Thailand – quick and slow • Gartner's Hype Cycle and Thailand • Social Media Concerns • Challenges for Thailand's Broadband development • Other little BIG issues – Security, Privacy, Digital Rights Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 2
  3. 3. General Trends facing Thailand • Climate Change • Concerns for food, water and energy/fuels • Aging Societies • Economic Regionalization – AFTA → Asia Community (ASEAN+3,+6) • Broadband access (wired/wireless) Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 3
  4. 4. Thailand – quick and slow adopter • Quick adopter of many technologies – Color TV introduced before UK • Slow adopter of many regulatory practices – ISDN (slow, late, short-lived, unproductive) – Establishing Regulatory Body – WIFI (slow regulatory announcement) – 3G (sluggish and unclear plan) – WiMAX (too many reservations) – Digital Broadcast (slow, private sector driven) – Freeing spectrum for Digital Communications (unheard of) – Last-mile unbundling (hardly happens) – Number portability, TLS, USO, etc... Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 4
  5. 5. Gartner Hype Cycle 2009 Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 5
  6. 6. From Smart phone to an ebook reader, web browser and game Apple iPad, launched Jan 28, 2010 Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 6
  7. 7. Mobile Device plays all “matured” applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle Speech Recognition Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 7
  8. 8. Mobile Device plays all “matured” applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle Schmap Geo Tweeter Schmap.com Location Another fine Geo Social tool comes Aware from the developers of the amazing Apps local search service Schmap. Schmap publishes local guides, providing a wealth of information to visitors of many major urban centers around the Globe... access information, photos, reviews and ratings on places of interest and much more. The company also has developed a number of location sharing tools, widgets, and services including the Schmap Geo-Tweet utility. Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 8
  9. 9. Mobile Device plays all “matured” applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle พระทนงสถตยมโหฬาร Location Aware Apps Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 9
  10. 10. Mobile Device plays all “matured” applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle Social Networking Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 10
  11. 11. Which screen will you be using? Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 11
  12. 12. It all depends on the bandwidth... Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 12
  13. 13. Broadband status: World Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 13
  14. 14. Does broadband availability contribute to economy? Economy Broadband Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 14
  15. 15. Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 15
  16. 16. Take a closer look into mobile technology • Transistor radios • Cassette tape, Walkman [TM] • Mobile phones • Bluetooth earphones • Television in smart phones • Everything in smart phone Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 16
  17. 17. Applications, Bandwidth and Technology Source: Verizon Source: http://www.engineersireland.ie/sector_papers/Next_Generation_Broadband.pdf Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 17
  18. 18. Do we end up with three screens? • จอเลก • จอกลาง • จอใหญ/จอยกษ All capable of IP connection? Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 18
  19. 19. Thailand is a fast adopter of Social Media Social media needs “always-on” “everywhere” services. Speed is optional... Picture source: slideshare.net Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 19
  20. 20. Thais hardly concern with the hidden and potential problems Five scary things That Facebook Knows About You 1. Facebook Saves Things That Have Been Deleted – Whatever status updates or unglamorous pictures of you are still inside the server somewhere. A word of advice, think carefully and be tactful when uploading photos or making a status update. 2. Facebook Knows Your Viewing History – Log of clicks are used by Facebook to determine your viewing history. Hence, it knows whose photos you are going through. 3. Facebook Knows How Often You Interact With Or Click On The Profile Of A Given Person – Depending on the number of visits you made on your friend’s profile, Facebook uses this data as a method to judge who your good friends are. This is visible through Facebook search where your friends are not listed in alphabetical order but by the people who you interact most with. important is that people should be more tactful when they are online. In the real world, people may forgive and forget but in the virtual world, there are always traces of data that could be used against you. Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 20
  21. 21. We hardly concern with the hidden and potential problems Five scary things That Facebook Knows About You 4. Facebook Carries Out Psychological Tests On New Features – Instead of doing group sampling or beta testing on their new features, Facebook does the above plus eye ball tracking to get an idea of where you are looking at. 5. Facebook Employees Are Able To Retrieve Any Message You’ve Sent Out – Since all data are stored in the server, employees have the clearance to pull out any data about you through a simple query on your profile. – Whether the interview was a hoax or made-up, I think what’s more important is that people should be more tactful when they are online. In the real world, people may forgive and forget but in the virtual world, there are always traces of data that could be used against you. Source: http://therumpus.net/2010/01/conversations-about-the-internet-5- anonymous-facebook-employee/?full=yes Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 21
  22. 22. From GSM to LTE to Femtocell WiMAX Femtocell http://wimaxcomnet.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 22
  23. 23. Backbone network, Access network • National Broadband plan is needed • Optical fiber backbones – 1gb/s, 100gb/s • Access network (last mile) – Copper (ADSL, VDSL) – Fiber (FTTH) – Wireless LAN (WiFi, WiMAX) – Cellular access (3G – HSPA; LTE; Femtocell) • Regulatory arrangement – Who does what? – When – Smart use of RF Spectrum Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 23
  24. 24. Broadband Challenge 1: • Concession trap – Delay in 3G licensing & deployment – Problems with existing concessions and loss of revenues to state-owned telcos once 2G providers moving their customers over to their new 3G network – State-owned telcos: rolling back of privatization and lack of incentives to compete Our Entangled Regulatory Environment needs a big clean up Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 24
  25. 25. Existing Mobile Concessions Operator Network Concession Period Revenue Granted by (Year expired) Sharing AIS 900 GSM TOT 25 years 15-30% (2015) DTAC 1800 GSM CAT 27 years 12-30% (2017) Orange 1800 GSM CAT 16 years 25-30% (True move) (2013) DPC 1800 GSM CAT 16 years 25-30% (2015) End the concessions sooner... Source: Adapted from http://www.ndaventures.com/Thailand_Telecom_Brief.pdf p.6 Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 25
  26. 26. Challenge 2: • FTTx/ FTTH for Thailand – Upgrading from copper to optical fiber – Migrating to IP-based/ packet-switched networks – Appropriate investment models – Government funding? Public-private partnership? Private investment? Combination of methods? New technologies needs solid national open access network backbone Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 26
  27. 27. Challenge 3: • Some pressing regulatory issues – Strong competition policy to discourage abuse of power by incumbents • Account separation/ structural separation – Open access backbone network • Reducing redundancy – Unbundling policy for last miles – Hand-off policy for value-added services – Consumer protection: Price, speed & quality of service Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 27
  28. 28. Infrastructure Sweet Spots and Happy Operators Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 28
  29. 29. Challenge 4: • Bridging the digital divide – Moving forwards technologically while ensuring nobody is left behind – Appropriate investment models to encourage broadband deployment in rural and other cost- prohibitive areas • Deployment of wired + wireless networks • Appropriate USO/ funding mechanisms Watch for LTE and Femtocells, and be watchful for 3G and WiMAX. Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 29
  30. 30. The Way Forward - 1 • Addressing management and regulatory issues – End of concession era – ICT2020 and the national broadband plan? • Upgrading the networks – Backbone: Complete migration from copper to fiber – Last miles: 100% coverage using a combination of wired and wireless technologies • Investing in infrastructure with “sustainability” in mind – Gradual upgrades – Shared resources with little redundancy/ Open access networks – Reuse of equipment where possible Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 30
  31. 31. The Way Forward - 2 • Clean up the Concession Contracts • Redefine TOT/CAT Infrastructure Sweet Spots • Create happy operator environment – level-playing field • Creating local industry on broadband infrastructure – Service Innovations by Thai Companies – Export potential • Protecting & educating consumers – Focus on price, speed, and quality of broadband services – Channels to address grievance Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 31
  32. 32. Last, but not least Other issues – Security threats for Internet and Cloud Computing – Privacy – DRM “There are many good plans in Thailand. You've got to predict whether they can be implemented and who will do it.” Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 32
  33. 33. Q&A Thank you for your attention htk@nectec.or.th Thailand and Technology Trends Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 33

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