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Productive: a mathematical approach to optimizing productivity
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Productive: a mathematical approach to optimizing productivity



Final business plan for Commercializing Science, a course at HBS. We worked with scientists at Harvard Medical School to develop this commercialization strategy .

Final business plan for Commercializing Science, a course at HBS. We worked with scientists at Harvard Medical School to develop this commercialization strategy .



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Productive: a mathematical approach to optimizing productivity Productive: a mathematical approach to optimizing productivity Presentation Transcript

  • PRODUCTIVEa mathematical approach to optimizing productivityTeam:Evan BaehrAndrew Lim, MDNatalie Shaw, MDHalle TeccoInventors (Brigham & Women’s Hospital):Dennis Dean, PhDElizabeth Klerman, MD, PhD
  • The Problem Causes of Circadian Misalignment and Insufficient Sleep:‣ Extended, night, or shift work (health care, transportation, military, finance)‣ Transmeridian travel Needed Solutions:‣ Rational design of shift schedules‣ Strategically scheduled sleep/naps‣ Appropriately timed use of countermeasures like light, exercise, caffeine‣ Timing of tasks to reflect peaks and troughs of performance
  • Our Solution A simple, elegant mobile application that maximizes productivity. Uses CPSS/Shifter engine. Based on actual performance data from thousands of individuals studied in the Circadian Biology Laboratory at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. Developed by researchers from Harvard Medical School with funding from NASA.
  • Inputs & OutputsWork/Flight Schedule Optimum timing of light, sleep, Time Zone(s) meals, exercise, coffee ProductiveCurrent Sleep/Wake Predicted times of peak and Schedule trough performance Hour-by-hour Performance-Optimizing Schedule staffing needs Productive Teams Optimum timing of light, naps, meals, exercise, coffee for eachEmployee Availability employee Predicted times of peak and trough performance for each employee
  • Performance of Productive Without Productive With Productive Day 1 Day 1 Day 5 Day 11 Productive realigns individuals to the new time zone in half the time from Dean et al, PLoS Comput Biol, 2009
  • Customer SegmentsConsumer Enterprise "We need to get the best work out of a very complex staffing model""I dont want my honeymoon in "I am flying from Boston to London & OR Paris to be ruined from jetlag” need to be alert for a 9 AM meeting" "I need to select the most effective employee given circadian constraints"
  • Branding: Two ProductsProductive $9.99 Productive Teams $29.99A science-based, natural solution A simple-to-use employeeto minimize the negative effects scheduling tool to optimizeof jet lag for busy individuals that productivity and worker safety.want to be more productive. Buyer: Small business owners, HRBuyer: Individuals (leisure & work) managers, team schedulers
  • Productive Scenario: Jane is flying to London and needs to be ready for a 9 AM meeting. Jane pulls up her Productive app and inputs her current 1. sleep/wake schedule, travel schedule and meeting details. 2. Productive tells Jane optimum timing of light, sleep meals, exercise, and coffee. It also gives her predicted times of peak and trough performance. 3. While napping on her flight, Jane is awaken by a push notification. It tells her to wake up and have a coffee. When Jane arrives in London, she showers at her 4. hotel and heads to her 9 AM meeting. She is feeling well rested and productive.* This example is for illustrative purposes. An individual would likely need to interact with Productive for a few days before traveling East.
  • Productive TeamsScenario: Chief Resident needs to schedule 12 residents. 1. Team members open Productive Teams app and enter their availability. 2. The Chief Resident enters hour-by-hour staffing needs. 3. Productive Teams uses this data to provide a performance-optimizing schedule. Team members receive individualized schedule with suggestions for timing of light, naps, 4. meals, exercise, and coffee. The schedule is auto-synched with their calendar.
  • Market Size ‣ 15.5 million Americans work full time on evening shift, night shift, rotating shifts, or other employer arranged irregular schedules* ‣ More than two-thirds (68%) of shift workers report problems sleeping ‣ 15 million+ Americans fly overseas each year** ‣ One-half of the American work force (51%) reports that sleepiness on- the-job interferes with the amount of work they get done*** 30M+ potential customers in the US alone* 2004 Bureau of Labor Statistics** Department of Commerce, 2003*** National Sleep Foundation 2000 Sleep in America Poll
  • Productive’s Competitive Landscape Existing Smart Phone Apps (e.g.Virgin) Productive Affordability Large Enterprise Consulting (e.g. Circadian) Effectiveness / Features
  • Competition Existing Enterprise-Level Existing Smart Productive / Productive Consulting Phone Apps Teams (e.g. Circadian) (e.g.Virgin)Enterprise-Wide Employee Scheduling large enterprises, 100+ employees  medium enterprises (5-100 employees) Recommended Timing of light, sleep sleep light, sleep, meals, coffee Countermeasures Predicted Timing forEmployees’ Peak and Trough Performance   Accessible to Non-Expert End-User    Cost $$$$$ $ $
  • Additional Slides
  • The Overall Problem of Fatigue ‣ 50% of the population complains about excessive sleepiness* ‣ Excessive sleepiness is the primary cause of industrial and motor vehicle accidents ‣ Annual cost in lost worker productivity due to sleeplessness is about $18 billion dollars* ‣ Drowsy drivers are responsible for at least 100,000 automobile crashes, 71,000 injuries, and 1,550 fatalities** A considerable portion of  individuals are fatigued due to circadian misalignment* National Sleep Foundation**The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
  • Circadian Related Fatigue: Market InquiriesInquiries have come to the inventors from Healthcare Industry Shift Workerspeople in multiple industries all “Health care is a 24/7 enterprise. Drawing up aover the world. physician duty schedule requires balancing the need to provide adequate staffing levels 24 hours a day 7 days a week with the need to Transportation Travel Industry minimize medical errors resulting from sleep deprivation and circadian misalignment. Right Industry “I’m taking up the topic of having JetLag software on board now, this is typically done with a paper aircrafts...I was just wondering calendar, a pen, and a lot of guesswork - a whether the software has been “A concern in the marine completed and whether you are in time consuming and frustrating process even industry is that of acute and a position to enter a license for an expert in sleep medicine.” agreement...” chronic fatigue due to the – Chief Resident, Beth Israel Deaconess nature of the work – Director of Inflight Entertainment, PlanBmedia, Zurich, Switzerland Medical Center schedules...monotonous tasks...[where] safety [is] critical...and therefore preserving human Enterprise Shift Work performance throughout “I work rotating shift work for the National Weather Service...We work 5 to 6 shifts is highly important...” shifts at time, leading to frequent rotation and therefore frequent changes in – Employee at the American sleep patterns. I am very interested in your research into circadian rhythm Bureau of Shipping, adjustment. Is your model available...?.” Houston, TX. – Senior Forecaster, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), Boise, ID.
  • The Solution to Circadian Related Fatigue:Productive‣ Productive uses advanced computer algorithms to: ‣ Predict periods of peak and trough performance for individuals with irregular sleep and work schedules to allow optimal timing of mission- critical tasks ‣ Suggest optimal timing of countermeasures such as light, naps, and caffeine to enhance peak performance and avoid errors ‣ Optimize shift schedules across enterprises to maximize performance and minimize error
  • Performance of Mathematical Modelto Reduce Jet Lag from Dean et al, PLoS Comput Biol, 2009
  • Models We Considered to Commercialize CPSSand Shifter: ConsultingProsAllows highest degree of customization, revenues from service fees, and iterativeinteractions with customers to build product and learn from the marketConsA large, established incumbent (Circadian) is in the market for consulting.Significant investments would be necessary in the hiring and training of extensive staff.Staff would need to understand how to implement government policy and even how todeal with unions who have issues with any change in scheduling that are imposed.*Additional RationaleSince this product can be characterized as a disruptive innovation, it is best not tochallenge an incumbent right away. Rather, we should take on the low-end of the market(smaller teams in smaller companies) with a simple, easy product to use in order to provethe value of the solution, gather customer feedback, and slowly improve over time. **These are customers that Circadian is not paying attention to at the moment and we canachieve substantial gains here while not encroaching on their space and provoking acompetitive response from day one.* Interview with sleep lab director and former subcontractor for Circadian** Christensen, C.M. and Raynor, M.E. (2003) The Innovator’s Solution. Harvard Business School Press:Boston, MA.
  • Models We Considered to Commercialize CPSS andShifter: Enterprise Scheduling SoftwareProsLarge enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems could incorporate a schedulingprogram somewhat easily. ERP companies (e.g. SAP or Oracle) have extensive contactsand broad distribution networks in virtually every industry, greatly easing the burden ofdistribution and marketing.ConsERPs are extremely expensive and complicated to build, often taking between 2-4years to fully roll out. Therefore, sales of these systems are not frequent events, andpotential revenue from such a partnership not would sustain the commercialization ofShifter/CPSS at the moment. Also, we are likely to catch the attention of the competitor,Rostima, who will be a formidable opponent if we enter here.Additional RationaleAt the moment, there is little incentive for ERP companies to sell a circadian schedulingpackage or to believe it works at all. However, once the system is proven in smallteams (that Rostima would ignore, most likely), ERP companies can be approached forpartnership and future revenue expansion. Systems like these (e.g. SAP or Oracle) areonly cost effective for extremely large companies, and therefore the software should beproven with small teams first.
  • Models We Considered to Commercialize CPSS andShifter: Software Integration with Light Box ManufacturersProsIntegrating Shifter software into an existing light box indicated for circadian shifting (e.g.the Phillips blue light) would greatly increase user compliance and prove the value of theShifter algorithm.ConsPhillips and other light box manufacturers do not yet have the hardware installed tosupport user interaction with a program like shifter. Any investment to make this happenwould be substantial for these companies. Having something like Shifter installed couldbe a nice differentiating factor for a company like Phillips, but they would need to beconvinced that the investment would pay off in sales revenues of the special integrateddevice.Additional RationaleOnce the technology has been proven in the commercial market, a company like Phillipswould be ideal for partnership. At this stage, they could more easily be convinced todesign hardware that would support a user who wants to have his or her light box turn onand off when Shifter tells it to do so.
  • Models We Considered to Commercialize CPSS andShifter: The Productive iPhone AppProsProgramming costs are relatively inexpensive, and there are few barriers to entry.Creating an iPhone app would allow broad user adoption and we would be able to solicitfeedback in order to develop future versions that meet needs of consumers that onlythey can tell us once the product is in the field, thus allowing an emergent strategy todevelop**.ConsApps are easily copied (one already exists).Additional RationaleBranding is everything in the app world. We would have to differentiate ourselves fromthe competitors by showing the user that this product has been developed with the mostextensive research from the most prestigious institutions in the world. Also, by offeringmore countermeasures than light alone, we’d be better positioned than other apps. And,it would be harder for other apps to catch up. Finally, offering complex, multi-time-zonescheduling would also be difficult to replicate. The iPhone app allows our partners to maximize profits** Christensen, C.M. and Raynor, M.E. (2003)The Innovator’s Solution. Harvard Business School with little investment, while maintaining full brand control.Press: Boston, MA.
  • Summary of Models We Considered Pros Cons Allows highest degree of customization, revenues - Large, established incumbent (Circadian) from service fees, and iterative interactions withConsulting - Significant investments necessary for hiring and customers to build product and learn from the training of extensive staff market - Complicated and timely to build (2-4 years)Enterprise scheduling -potential revenue from such a partnership not Seamless distribution through ERP systemssoftware would sustain the commercialization of Shifter/CPSSSoftware Integration with Increase user compliance and prove the value of Manufacturers not ready for such integrationLight Box Manufacturers the Shifter algorithm - Relatively inexpensive and low barriers to entry Low cost and low barriers to entry also make itiPhone App - Broader user adoption -> constant customer easy for other competitors to come in feedback The iPhone app allows our partners to maximize profits with little investment, while maintaining full brand control.
  • Advantages of Productive Compared to CompetitionAdvantages over existing jet lag software ‣ Accurate even in the context of complex schedules with multiple time shifts ‣ Able to suggest timing of a wide range of countermeasures (light, naps, coffee) and predict their efficacy ‣ Provides feedback on anticipated timing of peak and trough performanceAdvantages over existing enterprise level solutions (e.g. Circadian) ‣ Software able to be used by end-user without need for consultant intermediary ‣ Able to suggest timing of a wide range of countermeasures (light, naps, coffee) and predict their efficacy Andrew’s witty line goes here. ‣ Price
  • Protecting IP • Like Coca Cola, we believe that the intellectual property of this product is effectively protected by treating it as as a trade secret • In general, software patents have a lot of hurdles to overcome, and it is not worth pursuing this route given the complexity of the product • The patent process can be extremely expensive and there is little upside here
  • Keeping it In-HouseHospital maintains ownership and retains revenue (other hospitals with mobileapps include Cleveland Clinic, Mayo Clinic, Stanford)Advantages Disadvantages ‣ Science team with deep-knowledge already ‣ First foray into consumer applications, in place learning curve ‣ Low marginal cost of mobile app ‣ Opportunity cost for research team development ‣ Additional financial investment ‣ Maintain brand-equity will drive sales (Productive by Harvard Medical School or Productive by Bringham & Women’s Hospital) ‣ Leverage institutional resources: PR, web presence, network of medical professionals ‣ Opportunity to extend hospital’s impact and market presence
  • Commercializing Science Team‣ Evan Baehr brings to the team a background in public policy, government, venture capital, and technology.   Most recently Evan was a platform partner manager for Facebook. Evan has also worked for the White House, U.S. House of Representatives (Appropriations Committee), American Enterprise Institute, and Ethics and Public Policy Center.   Evan is a graduate of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public Affairs at Princeton University as well as Yale Divinity School.  ‣ Andrew Lim MD is a neurologist at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center whose clinical practice focuses on sleep disorders and circadian biology.  His research interests include the identification and characterization of genetic variants modulating circadian phase in human populations. ‣ Natalie Shaw MD is an Endocrinologist at Childrens Hospital Boston and Massachusetts General Hospital.  She is currently a co-investigator on a clinical research study investigating the effects of sleep apnea on nocturnal reproductive hormone secretion in pubertal children. She is also interested in the connection between sleep deprivation and changes in sleep architecture, as would be expected with jetlag, and obesity and risk of diabetes‣ Halle Tecco is an MBA passionate about developing tools that enable people to live healthier, safer lives.  In college she worked on commercializing a music therapy program for Columbia University Hospital, which led her to found a non-profit bringing yoga into hospitals and cancer clinics.  Last summer she worked at Apple, covering health and medical apps for the iPhone and iPad.