Decision Leadership SDG- Stanford University

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Decision Leadership SDG- Stanford University

  1. 1. Decision Leadership Guiding Teams to High-Quality Decisions inChallenging Organizational and Analytical Contexts
  2. 2. Meet Today’s Speakers Hannah Winter Bruce Judd Carl Spetzler Jennifer Meyer Paul Marca Partner, SDG Dir. of Executive CEO, SDG Senior Engagement Deputy Director, Education, SDG Program Director, SDRM Manager, Executive Stanford Center for Associate Program Certificate Program Education Practice, SDG Professional Director, Stanford Adjunct Professor, DevelopmentStrategic Decision and Kellogg Graduate Lecturer in Economics, Risk Management School of Mgmt. Stanford Graduate (SDRM) Certificate School of Business Program ® 1 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  3. 3. When the stakes are high and organizationalalignment is difficult, you need decision leadership.High stakes • A bad decision will have lasting negative consequences • There is time to make a high-quality decisionMultiple parties • Stakeholders • Information providers • Individuals who will ensure the decision “sticks”Examples • New business strategy • New products or services • Response to competition • Management of a portfolioIn general these situations are challenging organizationally, and they areanalytically complex, uncertain, and dynamic. ® 2 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  4. 4. These challenging situations call for decisionleadership to ensure a timely and high-quality result. Decision Maker(s) Decision Leader Decision Task Leadership Planning and Managing Gathering Information Facilitating Meetings Analyzing & Synthesizing Communicating Results The decision leader plans and in many cases leads the tasks preceding the decision; in some cases the roles are combined. ® 3 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  5. 5. Live Meeting PollPoll 1What role do you play most frequently in your organizations decision making?• I am the decision maker or a member of a standing decision- making body.• I solve problems and advocate my ideas to decision makers.• I lead teams to support decision makers.• I participate on teams that support decision makers.Changes directly made to this slide will not be displayed in Live Meeting. Edit this slide by selecting Properties in the Live Meeting Presentation menu. ® 4 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  6. 6. Effective decision leaders are committed to achievingdecision quality. Decision Leader Decision leaders provide five essentials. They: 1. See the destination – a high-quality decision 2. Diagnose a decision situation 3. Design an effective and efficient decision process 4. Lead the decision process 5. Assess the level of quality achieved They start with the end in mind, and assure that it is achieved. ® 5 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  7. 7. Achieving quality in each of six elements producesquality in the overall decision. Meaningful, Reliable Information Creative, Clear Doable Values and Alternatives Trade-offs Elements of Decision Quality Logically Appropriate Correct Frame Reasoning Commitment to Action Like a chain, overall quality is no stronger than the weakest link. This is the goal of the decision-making process. 6 ® © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  8. 8. A “spider” diagram helps gauge decision quality. Meaningful, Clear Values and Reliable Trade-offs Information Creative, Logically Doable Decision Correct Alternatives Quality 0% 100% Reasoning Appropriate Commitment Frame To Action The 100% point is where additional effort costs more than it is worth. 7 ® © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  9. 9. Effective decision leaders diagnose the situation inorder to determine the best decision process. Decision Leader Decision leaders provide five essentials. They: 1. See the destination – a high-quality decision 2. Diagnose a decision situation 3. Design an effective and efficient decision process 4. Lead the decision process 5. Assess the level of quality achieved ® 8 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  10. 10. The decision leader asks the crucial questions: the“What,” the “When,” and the “Who.” • What is the decision? – What is our purpose in deciding? – Has a decision been “declared”? – How important is the decision? – What is the nature of the decision? – What makes this decision difficult? • By when does this decision need to be made? • Who should be involved? – Who decides? – Who knows (who has the content that we need)? – Who leads the decision process? – Who should be involved to assure success in implementation? ® 9 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  11. 11. A diagnosis of the situation results in an initial frame. Meaningful, Clear Values and Reliable Trade-offs Information Creative, Logically Decision Doable Correct Quality Alternatives Reasoning Appropriate Commitment Frame To Action ® 10 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  12. 12. What makes diagnosis difficult? Each decision has itsown nature. Organizational: Alignment and commitment to a direction • Fundamentally different frames and beliefs • Group dynamics Organizational • Values, desires, and motivations • Habits and personalities • Organizational structure Co l nt en tica Analytical: The logic to get the right answer a ly t An • High uncertaintyContent: Trustworthy inputs and insight • Complex dynamics and business cycles • Data overload or lack of data • Many interdependent drivers • Constantly evolving value chains and business models • Multiple, interrelated value measures • Many alternatives or none • Variability in risk attitudes • Biases • Access to expertise ® 11 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  13. 13. Who should be involved? Decision Maker(s) Has authority to approve action. Responsibility for Assures that the decision recommendation meets DQ criteria. Decision Quality Gathers content information, facilitates dialogue, analyzes Project alternatives, and integrates results to achieve clarity of direction Team and commitment to action by the decision maker(s) and the implementers. Provide facts and judgments necessary to understand the Input and Execution consequences of the decision and readiness for successful Resources execution.Typically the decision leader directs the project team and shares DQ responsibility withdecision makers. ® 12 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  14. 14. Effective decision leaders select an approach andcreate the project plan: the “how” of achieving DQ. Decision Leader Decision leaders provide five essentials. They: 1. See the destination – a high-quality decision 2. Diagnose a decision situation 3. Design an effective and efficient decision process 4. Lead the decision process 5. Assess the level of quality achieved ® 13 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  15. 15. Live Meeting PollPoll 2How does your organization make most of its important decisions now?• We use decision leaders to guide dialogue among decision makers and team members to a high quality decision.• Our most important decisions are based on recommendations by strong advocates.• Our decision-making processes are ad hoc.• I dont know how we make our most important decisions.Changes directly made to this slide will not be displayed in Live Meeting. Edit this slide by selecting Properties in the Live Meeting Presentation menu. ® 14 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  16. 16. In complex decisions, we define separate roles fordecision makers and a project team. Decision Board Members: Decision-makers Responsibilities: “Declare” decision, approve frame, provide values and trade-offs, and make decision Selection criterion: A decision by this group will “stick” Decision Board Project Team Members: Analysts and subject-matter experts Responsibilities: Develop frame and alternatives, assess information, evaluate alternatives, plan implementation Project Team Selection criterion: Recognized by decision board as credible experts and analysts ® 15 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  17. 17. The tried-and-true SDG decision process is a goodplace to start the process design. Staged Process Driven Creation of a Declare & with Deliverables Clear Choice Assess Create Evaluate Decide & Frame Alternatives Diagnose Decision Board Systematic Dialogue among the Right Participants Project Team ® 16 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  18. 18. The approach, tools, deliverables, and schedule differ greatly from one situation to another. Organizational Co nte l nt tica al y AnConsumer Product Assess & Frame Alter- Evaluate DecideMarket Entry natives ® 17 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  19. 19. The approach, tools, deliverables, and schedule differ greatly from one situation to another. Organizational Co nte l nt tica al y AnConsumer Product Assess & Frame Alter- Evaluate DecideMarket Entry nativesSemiconductor Assess Alter- Alter- Evaluate Evaluate DecideCapacity & Frame natives natives ® 18 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  20. 20. The approach, tools, deliverables, and schedule differ greatly from one situation to another. Organizational Co nte l nt tica al y AnConsumer Product Assess & Frame Alter- Evaluate DecideMarket Entry nativesSemiconductor Assess Alter- Alter- Evaluate Evaluate DecideCapacity & Frame natives nativesMobile Assess Alter- Alter-Provider & Frame natives Evaluate Decide natives Evaluate DecideStrategy ® 19 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  21. 21. However, all approaches, deliverables, and schedules must drive to commitment to action that achieves DQ. I A V Organizational DQ F R C Co nte l nt tica al y AnConsumer Product Assess & Frame Alter- Evaluate DecideMarket Entry nativesSemiconductor Assess Alter- Alter- Evaluate Evaluate DecideCapacity & Frame natives nativesMobile Assess Alter- Alter-Provider & Frame natives Evaluate Decide natives Evaluate DecideStrategy ® 20 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  22. 22. The decision and task leaders select from myriadtools to achieve decision quality. Content Intensive• Brainstorming• Market studies• War gaming• Experts• Customer interviews• Focus groups• Pilots and prototypes• Trial clinics• Controlled launches• Competitor review ® 21 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  23. 23. The decision and task leaders select from myriadtools to achieve decision quality. Organization Intensive Content Intensive • Surveys• Brainstorming • Team building• Market studies • Competency assessments• War gaming • Learning systems• Experts • Experts• Customer interviews • Personality• Focus groups assessments• Pilots and prototypes • Organizational design• Trial clinics • Personal coaching• Controlled launches • Needs mapping• Competitor review • Incentives and rewards ® 22 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  24. 24. The decision and task leaders select from myriadtools to achieve decision quality. Organization Intensive Content Intensive • Surveys Analysis Intensive• Brainstorming • Team building • Multiattribute scoring• Market studies • Competency • Scenarios assessments• War gaming • Value/uncertainty maps • Learning systems• Experts • Spreadsheet modeling • Experts• Customer interviews • Sensitivity analysis • Personality• Focus groups assessments • Probabilistic analysis• Pilots and prototypes • Organizational design • Nonlinear optimization• Trial clinics • Personal coaching • Risk profiling• Controlled launches • Needs mapping • Options and gaming• Competitor review • Incentives and rewards • Dynamic systems 23 ® • Portfolio analysis © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  25. 25. The key is selecting appropriate tools for the natureof the decision situation. Organization Intensive Content Intensive • Surveys Analysis Intensive• Brainstorming • Team building • Multiattribute scoring• Market studies • Competency • Scenarios assessments• War gaming • Value/uncertainty maps • Learning systems• Experts • Spreadsheet modeling • Experts• Customer interviews • Sensitivity analysis • Personality• Focus groups assessments • Probabilistic analysis• Pilots and prototypes • Organizational design • Nonlinear optimization• Trial clinics • Personal coaching • Risk profiling• Controlled launches • Needs mapping • Options and gaming• Competitor review • Incentives and rewards • Dynamic systems 24 ® • Portfolio analysis © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  26. 26. Example: A business portfolio problem… Organization Intensive Content Intensive • Surveys Analysis Intensive• Brainstorming • Team building • Multi-attribute scoring• Market studies • Competency • Scenarios assessments• War gaming • Value/uncertainty maps • Learning systems• Experts • Spreadsheet modeling • Experts• Customer interviews • Sensitivity analysis • Personality• Focus groups assessments • Probabilistic analysis• Pilots and prototypes • Organizational design • Nonlinear optimization• Trial clinics • Personal coaching • Risk profiling• Controlled launches • Needs mapping • Options and gaming• Competitor review • Incentives and rewards • Dynamic systems 25 ® • Portfolio analysis © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  27. 27. Effective decision leaders orchestrate and lead theactivities necessary to achieve DQ. Decision Leader Decision leaders provide five essentials. They: 1. See the destination – a high-quality decision 2. Diagnose a decision situation 3. Design an effective and efficient decision process 4. Lead the decision process 5. Assess the level of quality achieved ® 26 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  28. 28. Decision leadership applies up, down and across the organization. Decision Maker(s) Decision Leader Decision Task LeadershipThere are often different decision leaders for different decisions across the organization. ® 27 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  29. 29. The decision leader often has overall projectleadership responsibilities. Project Team Decision Board For the decision maker(s), the leader: For the project team, the leader: • Knows the larger organizational context • Is recognized and respected by the project team members as the director of the effort • Keeps a finger on the pulse of the decision makers, maintaining open communication • Designs and oversees the team’s activities to build decision quality • Monitors changes in the decision situation, and knows when to change course • Monitors progress in the decision effort and knows when to change course • Synthesizes insights from the team’s work clearly and with incisiveness • Ensures quality of the team’s work products • Manages resources and schedule ® 28 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  30. 30. Skillful leaders employ different leadership styles,depending on the situation. Decision Stage Potential Leadership Styles* Visionary: “We have an important problem here.”Declaring and diagnosing the Democratic: “We need engagement of many differentdecision perspectives in this process.”Assessing and framing the Visionary: “We can reach alignment for this decision.”decision; Understanding values Affiliative: “Our goals can support each other.” Visionary: “We can think differently about this.”Generating alternatives;Assessing information Coaching: “Each team member and expert can help us move toward higher decision quality.” Pacesetting: “This is challenging and exciting work.Evaluating alternatives to Here’s a clear set of tasks that will get us there.”understand value and risk Commanding: “We have a crisis. Here’s what needs to happen.”Reaching decisions; Democratic: “We all need to be aligned.”Building consensus Visionary: “With this decided, here’s what’s possible…” * Styles defined by Goleman, Boyatzis, and McKee in Primal Leadership: Learning to Lead with Emotional Intelligence (2002) ® 29 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  31. 31. An essential skill for decision leaders is facilitatingdialogue in decision meetings and workshops. Decision Dialogues Objective Leading dialogue that yields commitment to a high-quality decision Decision Board Project Team Meetings Objectives Designing and developing work products to build decision quality and foster alignment Project Team The decision leader will often design, open, manage, and close each meeting. ® 30 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  32. 32. The decision leader designs the meeting to fit thetasks and participants. Decision Stage Potential Meeting Designs • One-on-one discussions and draft reviewsDeclaring and diagnosing the • Kickoff presentation by decision makersdecision • Team development or refinement of vision statementAssessing and framing the • Small group info review and summary of challengesdecision; Understanding values • Issue raising with diverse perspectives in the group • Individual idea generation and group brainstormingGenerating alternatives; • Creative expansion, e.g., role plays, challenge reviewsAssessing information • Individual interviews using debiasing techniques • Interactive development of model structureEvaluating alternatives to • Poster session of evaluation resultsunderstand value and risk • Small group synthesis of key evaluation insights • Large group review and prioritization of refinementsReaching decisions; • One-on-one preview of results and recommendationsBuilding consensus • Insight-focused dialogue and recording of agreements A good design will accommodate different personality types (e.g., introverts, extroverts, big thinkers, analytical types, etc.) ® 31 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  33. 33. The decision leader manages meetings with neutralfacilitation and facilitative leadership. Neutral Facilitation Facilitative Leadership• Encourages and manages • Expert in leading a decision-making balanced and healthy discussion process• Keeps the group on task and on • Guides the group through specific schedule; seeks group agreement decision-related tasks on changes in task or schedule • Ensures quality of the work product• Adapts meeting process when it from each meeting isn’t working – Manages meeting tasks to maximize quality contribution• Manages group interactions, but provides no technical content or – Challenges the team in the meeting judgment of quality if quality is lacking – Tasks the team to improve quality as needed after the meeting ® 32 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  34. 34. So, in summary, decision leaders efficiently driveorganizations to high-quality decisions. I Decision Leader V A DQ F RDecision leaders provide five essentials. They: C 1. See the destination – a high-quality decision 2. Diagnose a decision situation 3. Design an effective and efficient decision process 4. Lead the decision process 5. Assess the level of quality achieved ® 33 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  35. 35. Live Meeting PollPoll 4How much would your organization benefit from improved decision leadership?• Little Benefit - We already have a group of effective decision leaders.• Some - Meetings and workshops would be more efficient and productive.• Significant - Decisions would be transparent and higher quality.• Monumental - This could be transformative for our organization.Changes directly made to this slide will not be displayed in Live Meeting. Edit this slide by selecting Properties in the Live Meeting Presentation menu. ® 34 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  36. 36. Stanford University and SDG have created educationprograms focused on improving decision-making. Stanford Center for Professional Development (SCPD) • Directed by Professor Ron Howard, Management Science and Engineering • Developed in partnership between SCPD and Strategic Decisions Group • Available online, on campus, and on-site • Meets the career-long education needs of professionals, managers, and executives ® 35 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  37. 37. Our program comprises education for strategicdecision-making at two levels. • Certificate program in Strategic Decision and Risk Management – For leaders and senior managers who want to improve decision-making by their teams – For those who support strategic decision-making – On-campus sessions in March, June, and September – What past participants have said: - "Stanford opened my mind to a new way of thinking that made a significant impact on me personally.” –Xander Uyleman - Watch an exclusive interview with Xander: http://scpd.stanford.edu/scpd/about/ourStudents/xUyleman.htm • Two-day senior executive seminar – For senior executives with significant decision responsibility – November 13–14, 2008 ® 36 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  38. 38. The certificate program offers 2.5-day coursesspanning the breadth of decision staff skills.Strategic Decision and Risk Management (SDRM) Program Core course Elective Decision Leadership Behavioral New course Challenges in Strategic Decision-Making Innovation DQ Advanced DA Decision Converting Modeling SDRM Project for Strategic Decision Quality Practicum Strategy into Insight Analysis Action Management Program Advanced Decision Analysis Enterprise Risk Strategic Management Portfolio Decisions ® 37 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  39. 39. 2008 On-Campus Calendar March June Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 17 18 19 20 21 16 17 18 19 20 Decision Analysis Advanced Decision Analysis Strategic Innovation Converting Strategy Into Action Decision Quality in Organizations Converting Strategy Into Action 24 25 26 27 28 CORE ELECTIVE Behavioral Challenges in Decision-Making Decision Leadership Pricing September • $2,495 per course Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday • $2,245 per course – early 8 9 10 11 12 registration (register byDecision Quality In Organizations 5/11/07 for June) Enterprise Risk Management Decision Analysis • $2,195 per course – multiple Converting Strategy Into Action Strategic Portfolio Decisions courses 15 16 17 18 19 • $1,975 per course – multiple courses and early registration Strategic Decision and Risk Modeling for Strategic Insight Prices increase January 8, 2008 Management Practicum ® 38 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  40. 40. Thank you for Q&Aparticipating intoday’s eBriefing,the winner of theiPod Shuffle is… To contact one of today’s speakers: Hannah Winter Bruce Judd Carl Spetzler Jennifer Meyer Paul Marcahwinter@sdg.com bjudd@sdg.com cspetzler@sdg.com jmeyer@sdg.com pmarca@stanford.edu+1.650.475.4455 +1.650.475.4470 +1.650.475.4405 +1.650.475.4374 +1.650.723.4008 To learn more about the SDRM program: sdrm_reg@scpdinfo.stanford.edu 1-866-234-3380 ® 39 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com
  41. 41. Upcoming On-Campus Courses March 17 - 28, 2008 Stanford Strategic Decision and Risk Management Certificate Program Register at: http://proed.stanford.edu/redir.asp?J1To visit the SDRM home page: http://proed.stanford.edu/redir.asp?J3 For more information, please contact: Patty Harris, Customer Relationship Manager Toll Free +1 866 234 3380 Outside the US +1 650 475 4490 pharris@sdg.com http://strategicdecisions.stanford.edu ® 40 © 2007 Strategic Decisions Group www.sdg.com

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