We can’t predict the E-, so... ...what will learning be like in 2030? Presentation at Looking to the future Espoo, 22.09.2008 Per Skafte Hansen, M.Sc., Ph.D., DPL, EBA, DL, internal coach in NeoConsult A/S Opening flash 

A brief digression At NeoConsult, the simplest kind of blended learning has been used in e.g. preparation of our project managers for the IPMA certification This was described in a contribution to ‘Visualization in Learning’, Brandon-Hall 2008

The game plan The presentation will touch upon Trends in technological development Authoring now and tomorrow Educational ‘paradigms’ - And there will be a conclusion of kinds A table of contents Looking at the unpredictable technological development goes against the title, but it is necessary for the rest to make sense...

The presentation will touch upon

Trends in technological development

Authoring now and tomorrow

Educational ‘paradigms’

- And there will be a conclusion of kinds

Some predictions, though... Technological predictions, after all Robotics and especially robotic toys will be ‘hot’ Toys can now display a certain ‘learning’ ability In the not-so-far future, they will also develop into teachers, tutors, mentors etc.

More on toys as teachers The actors may be dolls, virtual figures, abstracts, etc. In one configuration, the learner has a wise mentor and a ‘dummy’ to teach: The learner-as-teacher set up is very powerful Technological predictions, after all

Symmetric interfaces The ultimate “pay pr. view” (-?-) The author must think of content as separate from viewing and even from learning style The learner can subscribe to “this (kind of) content in this view for this learning style” Technological predictions, after all

Pervasive learning There are some security and anonymity issues, but.. From improved user interfaces to full narration: Things will tell you what they are, their history and how to use them; and they will adapt to what you like to learn about (data mining) Technological predictions, after all

More predictions Brain research will influence all competence development Learning itself may remain too high-level for progress to make itself felt in the next 20 years But processes and their stimuli will be far better understood Technological predictions, after all

Other technologies Some are just media, others far-fetched possibilities Voice interfaces Large, interactive screens Video conferencing Sleep research Non-invasive biometrics (-!?-) Technological predictions, after all

The Hollywood Syndrome A recent mini-report from Brandon-Hall, E-learning 101 , listed the disciplines Content expertise (the subject matter) Pedagogy [ PSH: or Knowles’ “Andragogy” ] Instructional Design Course Development Presentation Graphic Design Project Management (J. Clarey, re-ordering by PSH) Authoring Clearly, this calls for team efforts The question is: who will pay for the devlopment of the individual skills and the gathering of teams?

A recent mini-report from Brandon-Hall, E-learning 101 , listed the disciplines

Content expertise (the subject matter)

Pedagogy [ PSH: or Knowles’ “Andragogy” ]

Instructional Design

Course Development

Presentation

Graphic Design

Project Management

A warning Just as the PC and later the Internet created “computer illiteracy”, advanced e-learning may create “learning illiteracy”, since: Learning interactively is an acquired skill This kind of e-learning will be composed and developed under the spell of the Engineering Spirit... ...Yet another version of C.P. Snow’s Two Worlds This warning actually grew out of the work with this presentation: The worry has been there for a while, here it takes on a shape Authoring

Just as the PC and later the Internet created “computer illiteracy”, advanced e-learning may create “learning illiteracy”, since:

Learning interactively is an acquired skill

This kind of e-learning will be composed and developed under the spell of the Engineering Spirit...

Low cost authoring From an e-learning refresher course in mathematics Tools, perhaps intended for other uses, are becoming cheap – even free – and powerful Add to this the open standards for e.g. Storage formats and the free access to an indefinite amount of data Authoring

Impact on learning There is both a warning to issue and a joyful message to announce: The high complexity/low cost divide will – more than ever before – subject learning to market forces. “ People do not always buy what they need. They always buy what they want” W.T. Brooks With low cost authoring, no end of brilliant grass-root inventions and developments will emerge The first supports “Two Worlds”, the second goes against Whether there will be a market for high priced (high production costs) e-learning will depend on the market success of the toys etc. – and on whether they are seen as educational Authoring

There is both a warning to issue and a joyful message to announce:

The high complexity/low cost divide will – more than ever before – subject learning to market forces.

“ People do not always buy what they need. They always buy what they want” W.T. Brooks

With low cost authoring, no end of brilliant grass-root inventions and developments will emerge

And now: learning paradigms Some paradigms of which I know nothing Second Life Learning games Edutainment No lack of curiosity – but plenty of lack of time... Paradigms Second life seems to have its origin in the Make-belief of narration Learning games existed long before e-learning Edutainment is a wide category which includes popular science and museums

Some paradigms of which I know nothing

Second Life

Learning games

Edutainment

Social software Very briefly FaceBook, MySpace etc. are “Look at me”-platforms with no moderation (in any sense) and hence no direction LinkedIn, Pulse etc. are “Look at me”s for professionals... Wikis, however, especially when used as intranets, are the CSCL systems of today Wikis will probably merge with other ‘carrier’ software These brief characterisations are almost bound to be unjust – but they attempt to draw an outline of what to expect over the next 20 years Paradigms

Very briefly

FaceBook, MySpace etc. are “Look at me”-platforms with no moderation (in any sense) and hence no direction

LinkedIn, Pulse etc. are “Look at me”s for professionals...

Wikis, however, especially when used as intranets, are the CSCL systems of today

The experimentarium Half game, half simulator, this inherits from things like Meccano® or LEGO® It may have ready-made challenges and it may be more or less ‘real’ or ‘realistic’; but: It has some kind of ‘free mode’ where you can build your own course and machine (or whatever is simulated) and try out its effects Add the Internet and multi-player participation, and... I do not know the precise extent to which this is already a fact: SimCity ®, Spore® and many others come fairly close Paradigms

The armchair traveller This is so obvious that I don’t understand why it is not already overwhelming us: A hyperlinked multimedia presentation touring either a geograpical area or a more or less abstract subject (“The body”, “Historical paintings”, “Economy and history of the raw materials”) will allow you to sit in your chair and learn, at your own speed, at least the basic facts of exactly what you desire Maybe we are just waiting for interactive television (-?-) You will find this – and it also blends with some of the paradigms mentioned above – if you look for it: edutainment is a wide category Paradigms

The Virtual Grand Tour You have a map, a vehicle, a tutor, tasks, vistas, the lot This is my own brain child, first developed with my friend Lars Mouritsen I would tell you much more... Paradigms

Conclusion, part I Three technological trends to watch: Voice interfacing Robotics Brain research The guide NB: All three are “outside” e-learning, but will be huge Conclusion

Three technological trends to watch:

Voice interfacing

Robotics

Brain research

Conclusion, part II Three techno-sociological trends to watch: Authoring developing into a team effort The ‘engineering mind set’ sneaking in The counter-move from low-cost authoring The warning So: we may move from a scattering to a divide Conclusion

Three techno-sociological trends to watch:

Authoring developing into a team effort

The ‘engineering mind set’ sneaking in

The counter-move from low-cost authoring

Conclusion, part III Three educational paradigms to watch: The experimentarium Portfolio learning* The tour or travel *I first had: The “look at this” knowledge sharing – but this is where I let hope take precedence The happy thought Each will make e-learning so much more fun  Conclusion

Three educational paradigms to watch:

The experimentarium

Portfolio learning*

The tour or travel

*I first had: The “look at this” knowledge sharing – but this is where I let hope take precedence

That’s all, folks Thanks for now... … and thank you for listening...