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Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here
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Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here

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Dennis Nagy, a veteran of CAE space, and HPC Experiment Mentor talks about his perspective on the state of the Computer Aided Engineering industry.

Dennis Nagy, a veteran of CAE space, and HPC Experiment Mentor talks about his perspective on the state of the Computer Aided Engineering industry.

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  • 1. Dr. Dennis Nagy, BeyondCAE Wednesday, February 12, 2014 • * “Engineering Simulations, Part 2: Where Are We Going?” will be webcast on Tuesday, February 25th, at the same time. • Slides and recorded versions of both webcasts will be available at www.TheUberCloud.com
  • 2. Who Am I? (my 1 minute of shameless self-promotion  ) A broad expert in engineering simulation (CAE), over 42 years of experience: from R&D, university teaching, through commercial software development, support, sales and marketing management, to executive management. • • • • • Former Sr. VP of worldwide Sales at MSC.Software CEO of Engineous (now part of DS/SIMULIA) VP of Marketing and Business Development at CD-adapco VP of Marketing and Asia-Pacific at Fluent (now part of ANSYS) VP of International Business, Blue Ridge Numerics (now part of Autodesk) Currently Principal at BeyondCAE, a global strategy and business development consulting activity located in Chapel Hill, NC, USA. Mentor, TheUberCloud HPC Experiment Member of the NAFEMS Americas Steering Committee Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 2
  • 3. Mechanical Engineering Simulation (MCAE) is…  The use of applied physics, numerical methods, algorithms, and computers to model and study the functional behavior of multiple manufactured instances of proposed physical product/process designs.  MCAE, Functional Virtual Prototyping, Digital Prototyping, and Simulation & Analysis (S&A) are all the same thing for purposes of this presentation. Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 3
  • 4. MCAE Topics/Comments  Historical perspective  Technology  Business  Vendor consolidation and emergence  Current Structure of the MCAE vendor industry  Major players, relationships  Technology issues Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 4
  • 5. What is the Engineering Simulation Food Chain? Computer Hardware and Infrastructure Mathematics Research Software Development Applications Use for Product and Process Improvement “The purpose of computing is insight, not numbers.” Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 “Aha!” (Insight) 5
  • 6. The MCAE Industry: It Depends on Your Perspectives Veteran s Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy Recent participants 13 February 2014 6
  • 7. The Roles of Each Entity in The Engineering Simulation Food Chain Computer Hardware and Infrastructure Mathematics Research Software Development Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy Applications “Aha!” (Insight) Use for Product and Process Improvement 13 February 2014 7
  • 8. 5-Cent Tour of Relevant MCAE History - 1  1950’s-mid-60s: basic R&D work and first very simple software programs (major aerospace, civil frame/truss structures)  Boeing, MIT, NASA, ESA,…  Mid-1960’s-70s: basic methods for MCAD (D=Drafting) and early commerical MCAE software; emergence of sufficient compute power  MSC, SDRC (now part of Siemens), ANSYS, ABAQUS (now part of Dassault Systemes), MARC (now part of MSC), MathWorks all founded  1980s: MCAD Solid modeling (D=Design) and more userfriendly MCAE; accessibility of computer power (workstations); emergence of PDM, PIM (recognition of mushrooming data)  LMS (now part of Siemens PLM), RASNA (now part of PTC) founded Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 8
  • 9. 5-Cent Tour of Relevant MCAE History - 2  1990s: linking of MCAD, MCAE in wider production use; variational modeling, affordability of much greater computer and communications power (PC client/server networks)  Late 1990s: the Internet/Web—MCAE information but little s/w  2000s: discovering and overcoming new challenges (interoperability, standards, collaboration,…), emergence of MCAE as a significant player/component of PLM (25%+)  2010s: SDM, SPM, optimization, democratization, SaaS, The Cloud, multiphysics, multifidelity, multiscale (more in Part 2 of this Series) Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 9
  • 10. MCAE Advancement by Industry  Started in Aerospace (1950s-60s)  Advanced more quickly in Automotive (1970s-80s)  Turbomachinery (an industry or an application?) (1980s-90s)  Electronics: cooling, packaging (1990s-2000s)  SMB manufacturing, consumer products (2000s)  Chemical Processing (overlap w/Energy) 1990s-2000s  Oil & Gas (2000s) Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 10
  • 11. Typical Historical Obstacles/Steps to Further Business Impact of MCAE 1. “Can we trust the results?”  Accuracy of methods vs. traditional physical prototype testing (math, physics, algorithms)  Technology  2. “Can we get the results in time to impact design decisions?”  Digital processing and communications speed:  3. “Is it easy enough to use for the average mainstream product development engineer?”  Graphics speed, power, and ease of use (human interface)  4. “How much time is lost in between the use of individual MCAE tools?”  Incompatibility of tools and data; interoperability and integration Business  5. “How do we overcome sequential ‘silos’ preventing multidisciplinary upfront MCAE?”   Business processes in product development 6. “How do we overcome fear of change, risk aversion?”   Company culture 7. “What’s the business payback?”  Executive vision and top-level buy-in: enthusiasm for the strategic value of MCAE Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 11
  • 12. Progress Through the 7 Steps  Varies by industry (aero, auto, turbo, energy, consumer products), company size/role (SMB, OEMs vs. suppliers).  Varies by company within same industry segment: Leaders vs. laggards (recent Aberdeen Group studies)  Does not vary significantly by industrialized (“First World”) geography: Western Europe, North America, and Japan/Korea (with slight lag back in the 1970s/80s) are all similarly advanced/mature today in their effective use of MCAE  …and the BRICs are catching up fast Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 12
  • 13. The MCAE Industry: Complex , Diversified, Not Yet Well-Tracked  At least US$2.6B+ global annual revenue  15%+ growth rate  80+ vendors (from US$800M+ down to <US$1M)  Embedded in PLM vendors  Stand-alone  Serving Industries and customers from US$200B+ down to <US$1M Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy Major Industries and Vendors 13 February 2014 Emerging Vendors and Users 13
  • 14. Category Consolidation (from distinct markets to segments of larger markets, as tracked/followed by industry analysts) Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 14 13 February 2014
  • 15. The Enterprise Software/Solutions “Food Chain” Apple SAP Oracle … Remnants of the “Cottage Industry” HP DS Synopsys Microsoft PTC CDadapco IBM Google Autodesk Siemens-PLM Altair MSC PeopleSoft ANSYS Agile LMS Eigner ESI DS/Simulia . . . . . . . . .. ... .. . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MCAE vendors Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 15 13 February 2014
  • 16. MCAE Consolidation Example SAMTECH 2011 LMS Siemens PLM 2013 Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 16
  • 17. Further MCAE Consolidation 2003-2013: Acquisitions  ANSYS: Fluent 2006, ANSOFT (electromagnetics) 2008, Apache (ECAE) 2011,          Esterel (system modeling/simulation) 2012 Altair: AcuSim 2010 Autodesk: ALGOR 2007, PlassoTech 2007, Moldflow 2008, Blue Ridge Numerics 2011 Dassault Systemes: Abaqus  SIMULIA 2004, Engineous (optimization) 2008, FEDesign (optimization) 2012 LMS: Amesim (system modeling/simulation) 2004 ESI: CFDRC (CFD software only), Radioss, EASi (Crash environment), CyDesign Cybernet Systems: Noesis (from LMS) Siemens: UGS  Siemens PLM Software 2007, Vistagy 2011 (FibreSim), LMS 2013 MSC: acoustics, ExStream (composites) CD-adapco: Red Cedar (HEEDS optimization) 2013 Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 17
  • 18. Summary of Top 8 MCAE Vendors Company CAE revenue ranking* Recent Revenue Growth ANSYS** Founder Still In Charge CAE Imbedded in PLM company 10.5% X 1 x X 3 X X 4 x x X 5 X X X x 2 X X X 5 X X x w/o LMS acquisition Altair 12.4% CD-adapco Autodesk** Perceived CAE “Thought Leadership” Ranking X MSC ESI** CAE Market Position Movement Focused Solution Set DS/Simulia*** SPLM*** Fragmented Solution Sets CAE StandAlone x x (acquisitions) 20-30% 10-20% x 0-10% -0 to -10% Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy X 7 X X = Primary 13 February 2014 8 x = Secondary 18
  • 19. PDF copies of these slides (with active hyperlinks) available from TheUberCloud: www.TheUberCloud.com Dennis.Nagy@BeyondCAE.com or from me at: Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy 13 February 2014 19

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