Albania strengthening tourism statistics and development of a tourism satellite account

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  • 1. Albania: Strengthening Tourism Statistics and Development of a Tourism Satellite Account Experimental TSA 2009 Final Report For: SNV Ministry of Tourism, Culture, Youth and Sports From: Acorn Tourism Consulting Ltd Date: April 2011
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................5 1. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................6 1.1 General Background .......................................................................................................6 1.2 Background on the TSA 2009 ........................................................................................6 2. INTERNATIONAL INBOUND TOURISM IN ALBANIA...........................................................8 2.1 General .............................................................................................................................8 2.2 Inbound International Tourist Arrival Statistics ...........................................................8 2.3 Visitor Nights .................................................................................................................12 2.4 Visitor Expenditure .......................................................................................................14 2.5 Breakdown of Visitor Expenditure...............................................................................14 3. DOMESTIC TOURISM IN ALBANIA.....................................................................................16 3.1 General ...........................................................................................................................16 3.2 Household Consumption Expenditure........................................................................16 3.3 Domestic Component of Albanian Outbound Travel.................................................17 3.4 Estimate of Domestic Tourism Expenditure...............................................................17 3.5 Breakdown of Tourism Expenditure............................................................................18 4. SUMMING TOURISM DEMAND ...........................................................................................19 4.1 General ...........................................................................................................................19 4.2 TSA Table 1....................................................................................................................19 4.3 TSA Table 2....................................................................................................................21 4.4 TSA Table 3....................................................................................................................21 4.5 TSA Table 4....................................................................................................................21 5. MEASURING TOURISM SUPPLY IN ALBANIA ..................................................................23 5.1 General ...........................................................................................................................23 5.2 Tourism Characteristic Industries ...............................................................................23 5.3 Production Accounts ....................................................................................................23 6. ESTIMATION OF TOURISM VALUE ADDED IN ALBANIA.................................................25 6.1 Reconciliation of Supply and Demand........................................................................25 6.2 Measures of Tourism in Albania ..................................................................................25 7. EMPLOYMENT AND NON-MONETARY INDICATORS.......................................................27 7.1 Tourism Employment....................................................................................................27 7.2 Non-Monetary Indicators ..............................................................................................27 8. THE WAY FORWARD...........................................................................................................28 8.1 General ...........................................................................................................................28 8.2 Inter-institutional Platform (IIP)....................................................................................28 8.3 Technical Issues............................................................................................................29 8.4 Roles and Responsibilities...........................................................................................30 8.5 Timing and Budget........................................................................................................31 APPENDIX 1: INBOUND RESULTS FROM MTCYS/SNV VISITOR SURVEY ............................33 APPENDIX 2: HOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY 2006/2007 (INSTAT) ......................................39 APPENDIX 3: ALBANIAN TOURIST SPENDING OUTBOUND - 2009 ......................................40 APPENDIX 4: DOMESTIC RESULTS FROM MTCYS/SNV VISITOR SURVEY ..........................41 APPENDIX 5: PRODUCTS AND TOURISM INDUSTRIES ..........................................................45 APPENDIX 6: NATIONAL ACCOUNTS DATA ............................................................................46 APPENDIX 7: BREAKDOWN ON SELECTED INDUSTRIES ......................................................48 APPENDIX 8: COMPARATIVE DATA ..........................................................................................49 APPENDIX 9: ACCOMMODATION UTILISATION.......................................................................50 APPENDIX 10: EXAMPLE DOMESTIC TOURISM SURVEY.......................................................51 APPENDIX 11: EXAMPLE INBOUND VISITOR SURVEY ...........................................................54 2
  • 3. ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BA COICOP INSTAT GDP GFCF ISIC MTCYS NPISH OECD RTS 1993 SNA 1993 TGDP TOR TVA UNSC UNDP UNWTO VFR Bank of Albania Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose Institute of Statistics Gross Domestic Product Gross Fixed Capital Formation International Standard Industrial Classification of all Economic Activities Ministry of Tourism, Culture, Youth and Sports Non Profit Institutions serving Households Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Recommendations on Tourism Statistics 1993 System of National Accounts 1993 Tourism Gross Domestic Product Terms of Reference Tourism Value Added United Nations Statistical Commission United Nations Development Programme United Nations World Tourism Organisation Visiting Friends and Relatives ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Consultants would like to thank the Working Group for their assistance and support throughout this project. The Working Group includes the Ministry of Tourism, Culture, Youth and Sport, the Bank of Albania, the Institute of Statistics, and Ministry of Interior. The Consultants would also like to extend their special thanks for all their hard work and assistance to SNV, which has culminated in this ‘First Preliminary Experimental TSA 2009’ for Albania. 3
  • 4. MAP OF ALBANIA 4
  • 5. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Internal Tourism amounts to ALL 204 billion The 2009 TSA (First, Preliminary, Experimental) showed that total internal tourism expenditure (international inbound and domestic tourism expenditure) totalled some ALL 204 billion (!1,545 million). Of this, 2.77 million inbound tourists spent ALL 172 billion (!1.3 billion), whilst domestic tourists spent ALL 32 billion (!242 million). Tourism Value Added amounts to ALL 87 billion Tourism Direct Gross Value Added (the value added generated by all resident industries in the provision of good and services to visitors in response to their expenditure) was calculated as totalling some ALL 87 billion (! 661 million). Tourism GDP is estimated at 7.6% Gross Domestic Product in Albania in 2009 is estimated by INSTAT at ALL 1,144 billion in 2009 (preliminary). Comparing this with the TDGVA indicates that the direct contribution to GDP from tourism spending in Albania is of the order of 7.6%. This is substantial especially when comparisons are made with other comparable countries in Europe. Albanians working in other countries spend as much as foreign tourists when visiting The reason for so substantial a contribution from tourism is that a large proportion of the tourists are in fact Albanians working in neighbouring countries such as Greece and Italy. When they make a visit to Albania, they stay longer than foreign visitors and they spend at the same level per day as foreign visitors. But their spending patterns are different from foreign visitors in that they make less use of what would be termed the usual tourism industries. So their economic impact is substantial on the overall economy but less noticeable in the usual tourism industries. Establishment of a TSA Committee is essential for progress The establishment of a “TSA Committee” (often called an Inter-Institutional Platform) is required to take the TSA process forward. MTCYS and INSTAT are the key bodies within this committee, with BA also providing technical input. Priority Technical Issues to be addressed (1) What Tourism Characteristic Industries can be elaborated within the context of the National Accounts and the Structural Survey of Economic Enterprises? (2) What Tourism Characteristic Products can be elaborated in the context of the visitor sample surveys and the National Accounts? These issues have to be addressed by the ‘TSA Committee’ and the ‘Core TSA Team’. TSA development must be budgeted for by MTCYS and INSTAT With an annual budget of around !52,000 per annum (split between MTCYS and INSTAT) it will be possible to ensure the technical capacity within both institutions to move the TSA project forward. A second TSA for 2012 (published in 2013) and a third TSA for 2015 (published in 2016) is recommended. These would build on the work undertaken for this initial TSA, and ensure that many of the “gaps” and assumptions made for this initial project are filled. 5
  • 6. 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 General Background Tourism is a significant and growing industry in Albania. The number of tourists is growing year by year. Being a multi–sectoral industry with numerous stakeholders it has traditionally been difficult to assess the actual economic role of tourism in the national economy. Albania, similarly to other countries, has a system of National Accounts to determine economic values of GDP. Tourism is not covered by this system due to it being a demand-side sector. To address this issue, SNV, in partnership with the Ministry of Tourism, Culture, Youth and Sports (MTCYS) has conducted this project to develop a Preliminary Experimental Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) as a part of the National Accounting System. The objectives of the project have been to establish a database system for the collection of national tourism statistics and determine the role of tourism in the national economy. The project focuses on replicating data collection methods, tested in the Korce Region, in three key tourism regions of Albania, Tirana, Durres, and Vlora, and making use of the already collected data at the borders; information which would be important for establishment of the Tourism Satellite Account in Albania. Tourism continues to be seen as an important sector in the economy of Albania providing jobs, local incomes and making contributions to Government revenues. The Government of Albania has supported the work of collecting and analysing tourism statistics with a view to improving decisionmaking on strategies and policies for the development of tourism in the country. The methodology for this Preliminary Experimental TSA 2009 has followed the recommendations of the UNWTO. There are two key manuals produced by UNWTO which provide the guidelines for both the System of Tourism Statistics and the Tourism Satellite Accounts, namely • • International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics 2008 (IRTS 2008) Tourism Satellite Account: Recommended Methodological Framework 2008 (TSA:RMF 2008) These manuals have been developed in association with the international community. 1.2 Background on the TSA 2009 In the course of this exercise for the TSA 2009, the Consultants have attempted to follow the general guidelines set out in the two Manuals mentioned above. Both of these Manuals are new and they supersede the previous Manuals namely RTS1993 and TSA:RMF 2000. It takes time for the newer Manuals to be widely used, as can be seen from SNA 2008, which will take some years to become ubiquitous. But it should be stressed that the TSA Manuals are guidelines and are not prescriptive. Essentially the guideline is ‘to do what it is feasible to do’. Two key tenets of the TSA:RMF methodology are worth emphasising. Firstly, a uniform methodology allows valid comparisons, enabling the tourism value-added to be compared with the value-added in other industries and also allows comparisons with other countries to be made on a broadly like-for-like basis. A second key tenet is that the information on demand by visitors (that can encompass both tourism products and non tourism products) is reconciled with the information on supply of these goods and services in the economy. Both demand and supply should be estimated independently. The Ten Tables which comprise the satellite account are derived from or related to the tables of the 1993 SNA that concern the supply and use of goods and services. They are at the centre of international comparisons of the economic importance of tourism between economies. A diagrammatical view of the TSA is shown in Figure 1.1 6
  • 7. Figure 1.1 The Ten Tables of the TSA The minimal set of tables required to speak of a system of satellite accounts comprises Tables 1 to 6. Accounts that concentrate solely on visitor consumption or solely on the supply by tourism industries and other industries do not qualify as tourism satellite accounts. At a minimum the TSA must include a detailed presentation of supply and consumption, in terms of goods and services consumed by visitors and the activities that produce them, as well as an overall confrontation of their corresponding aggregates, which is at the core of the TSA system. 7
  • 8. 2. INTERNATIONAL INBOUND TOURISM IN ALBANIA 2.1 General Measuring tourism within Albania is a substantial task because of the large level of road traffic. Estimates of internal tourism consumption are based upon: • Inbound International Visitors (Tourists and Same-day visitors). These are residents visiting Albania from a country abroad. A large number of these are in fact Albanian Nationals/Citizens resident abroad but paying a visit to their own country. • Domestic Tourists (Tourists and same-day visitors). These are residents within Albania and travelling around Albania. • The domestic component of an outbound trip by Albania residents. The latter two of the above are addressed in the Section 3. 2.2 Inbound International Tourist Arrival Statistics The Border Statistics are collected by the General Directorate of Police. An Entry/Departure Card is not used, so the data collected is limited to the passport information and to three questions asked by the Police of the arriving passenger as to purpose of visit, country of residence and mode of transport. Training of the Police has been undertaken by the MTCYS and improvements have been achieved in the tourism data collection process at the border. But MTCYS consider that more improvements are required, and more training is needed. The Department of Borders and Migration do indicate that the arrival statistics do not include deportees, clandestines and asylum seekers. However, there are several types of arrivals which should be excluded from visitor arrivals and tourist arrivals (See IRTS 2008). Numbers of arrivals at the borders of Albania have increased substantially in the last decade, and particularly in the last three or four years. For the Year 2009, the numbers of arrivals (Foreigners and Albanians living abroad) totalled some 3.05 million, an 18% increase on 2008 (Table 1). Table 2.1 Visitor Arrivals in Albania 2008 1,247,125 83,013 1,330,138 1,248,489 2,578,627 Foreign Arrivals staying overnight (tourists) Foreign same-day visitors (excursionists) Total Foreign Visitors Visitors with Albanian Citizenship Total Visitors 2009 667,846 118,199 1,786,045 1,264,783 3,050,828 Source: INSTAT Arrivals of foreigners have grown at a rather faster rate than total visitor arrivals, with 2010 expected to be 30% higher than 2009, which itself was 34% higher than in 2008, which in turn was 21% higher than in 2007. The growth rate is exceptionally high compared with most tourist destinations around the World. Such growth brings both opportunities and challenges. In 2009, some 41% of visitor arrivals were Albanians living outside of Albania, many of them in Greece and other neighbouring countries. This is a large segment of the total market whose behaviour, preferences and spending is likely to be different from foreign visitors. 8
  • 9. Foreign Arrivals by Transport Mode The big increase in foreign visitor arrivals has been in the arrivals coming by road. Whilst air and sea arrivals have trebled in the last decade, arrivals by road have increased nearly tenfold (Figure 2.1). This reflects the improvements in the road infrastructure and the changing economic environment. Road arrivals are primarily visitors from neighbouring countries. Figure 2.1 Foreign Arrivals by Mode of Transport Source: INSTAT Whilst total foreign arrivals include day-visitors (excursionists), the proportions that are day-visitors are less than 10%. Three quarters of the foreign arrivals are coming by road, and the other quarter by air or by sea. Air travellers come through the international airport in Rinas near Tirana (Mother Teresa International Airport). The statistics on arriving and departing passengers indicate foreigners account for a third of air travel whilst Albanians account for two thirds. The mix of traffic is very broad with the international airport being a key point of entry for air travellers from the large European markets (UK, Germany, France) and also from the neighbouring countries including Italy, Greece and Turkey as well as the long-haul USA. Arrivals by sea are focused on three ports – Durres, Vlore and Saranda. Durres is important for arrivals from Italy, but also it has significant numbers of Kosovo and Macedonia citizens who are transiting through Albania to reach their landlocked countries. Vlore is a point of entry for Italy and Saranda for Greece, but numbers are modest for the latter two ports. Road arrivals are large in number and the key points of entry are from the neighbouring countries served by the particular border points. The people of Montenegro are coming through Murriqan and Hani I Hotit. Kosovars are coming through Morin, Qafe Morini and also through Qafe Thane in Macedonia. Macedonians use Qafe Thane, Gorice and Bllade, The Greeks are coming through Kakavije, Kapshtice and Qafe.Bote. 9
  • 10. Figure 2.2 Foreign Arrivals by Month Source: INSTAT The seasonal picture and the increasing issue of the peaking in July/ August is neatly illustrated by the graph from INSTAT in Figure 2.2. Such a level of peaking has to be coped with both by the border authorities and by the tourism industry itself. Foreign Arrivals by Country Foreign arrivals are mostly from the neighbouring countries. In 2009, some 67% of the arrivals came from the direct neighbours (Montenegro, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Greece) (Figure 2.3). The more distant markets, beyond neighbours and beyond ‘visiting Albanians’, represent a minority proportion of total arrivals. Between 2009 and 2008 there was a substantial shift towards more arrivals from neighbouring Kosovo. Figure 2.3 Foreign Arrivals by Country of Residence 10
  • 11. Figure 2.4 Visitor Arrivals, 2009 Source: INSTAT The principal issue is that tourist travel to Albania is dominated by ‘Albanians resident abroad’ coming back to visit their own country, and by four neighbouring countries, particularly Kosovo and Macedonia, which are landlocked, and thus their access to the seaside involves travelling into Albania. This means that the longer distance markets, which are often the relatively affluent holiday markets, and which the Albanian tourism industry (hotels, ground operators etc.) would like to develop much more, are in fact minority segments in the spectrum of the current inbound markets. Foreign Arrivals by Purpose of Visit Business travel by foreign arrivals is less than 3% of the market in 2009. Within personal travel, the foreign visitors are mostly coming for holiday, leisure and recreation purposes (83%) (see Table 2.2). Table 2.2 Foreign Arrivals by Purpose of Visit (000s) Arrivals by main purpose Total Personal Holidays, leisure and recreation Other personal purposes Business and professional 2007 1,127 1,061 912 149 66 2008 1,420 1,341 1,108 233 79 2009 1,856 1,804 1,544 260 52 Source: INSTAT Both INSTAT and Bank of Albania (BA) follow the latest manual on tourism statistics, IRTS 2008, with respect to the key breakdown between business travel and personal travel. The UNWTO Manual, IRTS 2008, has identified two main purposes of travel, namely (1) Personal and (2) Business and Professional. Within Personal, it identifies eight separate categories. The RTS 1993 was marginally different, not identifying separately purposes such as education, shopping or transit, which are now recommended from IRTS 2008 (see Table 2.3). 11
  • 12. Table 2.3 Purposes of tourism trips Classification of tourism trips according to the main purpose 1.Personal 1.1.Holidays, leisure and recreation 1.2.Visiting friends and relatives 1.3.Education and training 1.4.Health and medical care 1.5.Religion/pilgrimages 1.6.Shopping 1.7.Transit 1.8.Other 2.Business and professional Classification of tourism trips according to purpose: 1. Leisure, recreation and holidays 2. Visiting friends and relatives 3. Business and professional 4. Health treatment 5. Religion/pilgrimages 6. Other IRTS 2008 RTS 1993 Sources: IRTS 2008 and RTS 1993 Comparisons There are small differences between the total visitor arrival figures put forward by INSTAT and those used by the Bank of Albania. INSTAT indicate that their figures exclude certain categories of arrivals, but BA must exclude more categories. Table 2.4: Arrivals in Albania by Non-Residents Total Visitors including Visitors with Albanian Citizenship and Foreign Visitors, but excluding same-day visitors INSTAT BA 2008 ‘000 2009 ‘000 2,496 2,476 2,933 2,769 Sources: INSTAT, Bank of Albania A larger difference may occur with the purpose of travel in that BA has 27% of all international inbound travel (Foreigners and Albanians) travelling on business which implies that more than 50% of Albanians travelling for a visit to Albania are travelling for business purposes (Table 2.5). 2.3 Visitor Nights General Extending the count of visitors to nights spent in the destination is more difficult than counts of arrivals because the process of estimating the average length of stay is usually based on sample surveys of visitors. Always there are issues about the representativeness of the sample vis a vis the ‘universe’ being estimated, and the relative sampling errors associated with measures of central tendency. In Albania, the Bank of Albania undertakes quarterly surveys of exiting passengers at selected border posts. The quarterly sample is approximately 1,000 making an annual sample of 4,000 which covers both departing visitors and Albanians making a trip abroad. The actual interview process is carried out by INSTAT but analysis and reporting rests with BA. 12
  • 13. Table 2.5 Qtr Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Arrivals, Nights and Expenditure by Quarter, 2009 Non-Resident Tourist Arrivals Personal Business (000) (000) 264 408 925 428 2,025 Total nights (millions) Personal Business 2.1 3.3 7.4 3.4 16.2 Total Spend (! millions) Personal Business 152 238 437 236 Total 1,063 Source: Bank of Albania 121 164 299 160 744 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 3.1 Average Length of Stay Personal Nights 8 8 8 8 Spend per night (!) Personal 72 73 59 69 Business Nights Business 6 5 3 4 101 89 83 97 73 73 74 62 283 1,346 Average Length of Stay and Total Nights The BA sample survey indicated a length of stay along the following lines for the two major purposes of visit by inbound visitors, as recommended by IRTS 2008. The average is for the whole year and derives from the quarterly surveys weighted by the numbers for each quarter. Table 2.6 Average Length of Stay and Total Nights by Purpose of Visit Average Length of Stay (nights) Year Business 2008 2009 5.2 4.1 Total Nights (millions) Year 2008 2009 2.4 3.1 Business Personal Personal 8.4 8.0 17.0 16.2 Total Total 7.8 7.0 19.4 19.3 Source: Bank of Albania Note: The above figures include nights in Albania by Albanians resident abroad as well as nights by foreign arrivals. In 2009, some 2.77 million visitors (foreigners and Albanians resident abroad) averaged a stay of 7 nights and generated some 19 million nights in the country. 13
  • 14. 2.4 Visitor Expenditure As with Length of Stay, the average expenditure per day is obtained from a sample of visitors. The quarterly BA Survey gives the results in Table 2.5 and these are summarised in Table 2.7. Table 2.7 Average Expenditure per Night and Total Expenditure by Purpose of Visit Expenditure per Night (!) Year 2008 2009 Total Expenditure (!m) Year 2008 2009 Source: Bank of Albania Business Business Personal 95 92 Personal 224 283 58 66 983 1,063 Total Total 62 70 1,207 1,346 Note: The above figures include expenditure in Albania by Albanians resident abroad as well as expenditure by foreign arrivals. The above figures have been calculated from the equation Visitors times average length of stay times expenditure per day and due to rounding are not exactly equal to the series provided by the Bank of Albania in Table 2.8. Table 2.8 Albanian Travel Services - Outflows and Inflows Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Bank of Albania Outflows ! millions 635 768 923 1,058 1,134 Inflows ! millions 692 805 1,002 1,170 1,302 In summary, in 2009, the 2.77 million visitors (foreigners and Albanians resident abroad) staying 19 million nights are estimated to have spent approximately Euro 1.3 billion in Albania. 2.5 Breakdown of Visitor Expenditure The BA quarterly survey collects data on the breakdown into spending on three categories, as follows: • • • Accommodation Food and beverage Other (shopping) But this information is not released. The sample survey of visitors in 2010 undertaken by MTCYS/SNV covers seven of the twelve regions in Albania. It includes a more elaborate breakdown of expenditure, based on the expected spend on the day of interview. The breakdown is: • • • • • • Accommodation (everything paid in the hotel, including meals and drinks) Meals and Drinks outside of the accommodation Transport (tour buses, intercity buses, mini-buses, petrol, car hire, taxis, etc) Tours/Guide Services Shopping Other Spending 14
  • 15. This sample survey applies to the latter half of 2010. Some of the results are shown in Appendix 1. The breakdown of tourism expenditure has derived from the MTCYS sample surveys undertaken under the auspices of SNV. All the figures have to be treated as broad orders of magnitude. Table 2.9 Breakdown of Estimated International Tourism Expenditure 2009 Tourists Accommodation Meals & Drink Transport Tours Shopping Other Split Total Spend 2009 ALL millions Day-visitors Tourists ALL m Day-visitors ALL m Total ALL m 21.5% 3.1% 36,259 106 36,365 23.0% 21.0% 38,761 723 39,484 11.1% 11.9% 18,677 409 19,085 3.8% 2.6% 6,464 89 6,553 20.5% 25.7% 34,570 885 35,454 20.0% 35.7% 33,697 1,226 34,923 100.0% 100.0% 98% 2% 171,864 Equal !1,302 m 171,864 @132 Source: Derived from Sample Surveys applicable to 2010, but treated as applicable to 2009. Consultants’ Estimates. 15
  • 16. 3. DOMESTIC TOURISM IN ALBANIA 3.1 General No information on numbers/ frequency/propensity of tourism trips by Albanian residents within Albania is available. The main source of information on domestic tourism comes from the Household Budget Survey for 2006/2007 carried out by INSTAT. 3.2 Household Consumption Expenditure The estimates for household expenditure appear to be much higher than the estimates for household income, even though the many sources of household income were taken into account (Appendix 2). The breakdown of household expenditure is given in Table 3.1. Table 3.1 Household Expenditure Breakdown by Categories (%) Expenditure groups Food and non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics Clothing and footwear Housing excluding imputed rents Furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house Health Transport Communication Recreation and culture Education Restaurants and hotels Miscellaneous goods and services Total Total from Household Expenditure Structure by Main Groups 47.57 4.34 6.19 7.36 5.88 4.10 6.24 2.95 3.12 1.72 5.02 5.51 100.00 Total from Household Budget by Prefectures 48.7 4.6 6.0 6.9 6.1 4.1 6.2 2.8 3.1 1.5 4.7 5.3 100.0 Source: Household Budget Survey 2006/2007 (INSTAT) Expenditure on Hotels and Restaurants The breakdown of household consumption expenditure indicates that around 5% on average was spent by the average household on hotels and restaurants as a category of expenditure. The Survey aggregated and estimated twelve major categories (see Table 3.1). A possible estimate is that spending on hotels and restaurants amounted to around ALL 31 billion in 2006/2007 (ALL 69,000 per household per month times 12 months times 0.05 times 0.75 million households). Transforming this into Euros gives a figure of !250 million (at ALL 124 per Euro). A similar calculation but based on an average monthly household income of ALL 38,141 would give an expenditure of around one half of the above figure. On a monthly basis the figures would vary between ALL 3,450 per household and around a half of that if it is related to the income figures. (If one assumes that ALL 38,141 can be taken as the lower level, then 5% of 38,141 will be ALL 1,907 and this could be taken as the monthly expenditure on hotels and restaurants). 16
  • 17. Expenditure on Travel Items A more detailed breakdown according to different categories of expenditure indicates a figure of ALL 539 per month per household (Table 3.2). Table 3.2 Household monthly mean expenditures for travels (in ALL) Kind of expenditures Package holidays (includes school trips) One day Excursion (without sleeping) Expenditures to lodgings for pupils and students living out of the household Full or half-board expenditures (to hotel, hotel complex, touristic villages, camping etc.) Overnight stay (hotel, hotel complex, touristic villages, camping, private houses etc.) TOTAL ALL 106 15 166 219 33 539 Source: Household Budge Survey, 2006-2007 Such a figure is lower than the figure for general spending on hotels and restaurants. Against the former, the expenditure on these travel items is maybe 72% lower. 3.3 Domestic Component of Albanian Outbound Travel Outbound travel by Albanian residents is substantial as is shown by the estimates by the Bank of Albania in Table 2.5. Those totals derived from an estimate of numbers of outbound travellers from the border statistics, and estimates of days spent abroad and expenditure per day deriving from quarterly sample surveys at the border (See Appendix 3 – there are small differences due to rounding). The domestic component of the outbound travel is not known. It would include pre-trip and post-trip expenditures associated with the outbound trip. Also, it would include some services from local travel agencies. No estimate can be included for this domestic component at this time. INSTAT indicate that air passenger travel at Mother Teresa International Airport in 2008 was 615,000 passengers entering the country. In the same year foreign arrivals by air were 206,000. This would confirm that Albanian travel abroad, at least by air, is substantial, with two thirds of air travellers being Albanian. 3.4 Estimate of Domestic Tourism Expenditure On balance we have taken the view that the best proxy available at present is to adjust the lower of the two figures for household expenditure on hotels and restaurants. Basing the estimate on ALL 1,907 per month per household, the base would be ALL 17.2 billion. (ALL 38,141 times 12 times 0.05 times 0.75 million) (i.e. !138 million at ALL 124 equal 1 Euro). Adjustments upwards and downwards have to be made to this base figure as shown in Table 3.3. 17
  • 18. Table 3.3 Possible Scenario of Adjustments Estimate Of Domestic Tourism Assume that HBS estimate of Spending on hotels and restaurants in 2006/2007 is the best proxy for domestic tourism expenditure, to be adjusted Taking It Downwards Minus - not all will be tourism or day-visits outside of usual environment - some of the expenditure will be outside of Albania? -72% Overall Balance Taking It Upwards Plus + shift from 2006/07 to 2009 + domestic component of outbound travel + adding in other tourist expenditure over and above hotels and restaurants + Government staff expenditure on domestic travel + business domestic travel expenditure -0%? -72% +11% +8% +50% +6% +30% +148% +76% Source: Consultants’ estimates Note: The percentages apply only to this particular base figure. A change of base requires a change in the percentages. The adjustments raise the base figure of !138 million in 2006/2007 to !243 million in 2009. 3.5 Breakdown of Tourism Expenditure The breakdown of tourism expenditure has derived from the MTCYS sample surveys undertaken under the auspices of SNV. All the figures have to be treated as broad orders of magnitude and are reliant on a base figure which may be subject to revision. Table 3.4 Breakdown of Estimated Domestic Tourism Expenditure 2009 Tourists Day-visitors Tourists Day-visitors Total Accommodation 26.0% 4.8% 7,010 248 7,258 Meals & Drink 24.1% 40.4% 6,496 2,074 8,570 Transport 16.7% 23.8% 4,499 1,224 5,722 1.7% 0.3% 451 13 464 Tours Shopping 10.5% 9.8% 2,837 504 3,341 Other 21.0% 20.8% 5,651 1,069 6,720 100.0% 100.0% 84% 16% 32,076 Equal !243 m Split Total Spend 2009 ALL millions 32,076 @132 Source: Derived from Sample Surveys applicable to 2010, but treated as applicable to 2009. Consultants’ Estimates 18
  • 19. 4. SUMMING TOURISM DEMAND 4.1 General For the Tourism Satellite Account, Tables 1 to 4 are seen as the ‘Demand Tables’. The TSA:RMF 2008 gives the guidelines for these four Tables. We have followed these to the extent that it is possible at this time. 4.2 TSA Table 1 Table 1 sums up the tourism expenditure for inbound international visitors (both tourists and excursionists). The data derives from counts and from sample statistics based on respondents’ interpretation of expenditure in different categories of products. The range of products is limited by the information that it has been possible to get from samples of tourists and day-visitors. Prices are perceived ‘purchasers’ prices’. At this time it has not been possible to deduct gross service charges paid to travel agencies, tour operators and other reservation services. TSA TABLE 1- Inbound tourism expenditure, by products and classes of visitors – Albania 2009 - ALL millions Products A. Consumption products A.1 Tourism Characteristic products Accommodation Meals & Drink Local Transport Tours A.2 Other Consumption products Shopping Other TOTAL Inbound Tourism Expenditure Tourists (overnight Excursionists Total visitors visitors) (Same-day visitors) (1.3) = (1.1) + (1.1) (1.2) (1.2) 36,259 38,761 18,677 6,464 106 723 409 89 36,365 39,484 19,086 6,553 34,570 33,697 885 1,226 35,455 34,923 168,428 3,438 171,866 Sources: Derived from INSTAT, Bank of Albania, MTCYS, MTCYS/SNV Surveys, Consultants’ Estimates Note: (1) The value of Consumption products (A) should be net of the gross service charges paid to travel agencies, tour operators and other reservation services (2) For other Consumption Products, 'tourism connected products' and 'non-tourism related consumption products' should be identified separately. Goods and Services should be separately identified (if possible and if relevant and feasible). The TSA:RMF 2008 suggests that if it is possible and meaningful it may be useful to consider whether or not to separate out transit visitors as well as overnight visitors and excursionists. Given the transit situation for visitors from Kosovo and Macedonia, it might be that this will need to be considered in the future. 19
  • 20. TSA TABLE 2 - Domestic tourism expenditure, by products, classes of visitors and types of trips – Albania 2009 ALL millions Domestic Tourism Expenditure Domestic trips Same-day visitors Products A. Consumption Products A.1 Tourism Characteristic products Accommodation Meals & Drink Local Transport Tours A.2 Other Consumption products Shopping Other TOTAL Same-day visitors Visitors Outbound trips (domestic component) Tourists Same-day Visitors (overnight visitors visitors) (2.6) = (2.4) (2.5) (2.4)+(2.5) All types of trips Tourists (overnight visitors) (2.7) = (2.1)+(2.4) Same-day visitors Visitors (2.8) = (2.2)+(2.5) (2.9) = (2.3)+(2.6) (2.2) (2.3) = (2.1)+(2.2) 7,010 6,496 4,499 451 248 2,074 1,224 13 7,258 8,570 5,723 464 7,010 6,494 4,499 451 248 2,074 1,224 13 7,258 8,570 5,723 464 2,837 5,651 504 1,069 3,341 6,720 2,837 5,651 504 1,069 3,341 6,720 26,944 5,132 32,076 26,944 5,132 32,076 Included in domestic Sources: Derived from INSTAT, Bank of Albania, MTCYS, MTCYS/SNV Surveys, Consultants’ Estimates Note: (1) The value of Consumption products (A) should be net of the gross service charges paid to travel agencies, tour operators and other reservation services (2) For other Consumption Products, 'tourism connected products' and 'non-tourism related consumption products' should be identified separately. Goods and Services should be separately identified (if possible and if relevant and feasible). 20
  • 21. 4.3 TSA Table 2 Table 2 sums up the tourism expenditure for domestic visitors (both tourists and excursionists, residents of Albania). The data derives from counts and from sample statistics based on respondents’ interpretation of expenditure in different categories of products. The range of products is limited by the information that it has been possible to get from samples of tourists and day-visitors. Prices are perceived ‘purchasers’ prices’. At this time it has not been possible to deduct gross service charges paid to travel agencies, tour operators and other reservation services. 4.4 TSA Table 3 TSA Table 3 sums up the expenditure abroad by Albanians on their outbound trip. The nearest proxy for the data comes from the Travel Services Account prepared by the Bank of Albania. This is TSA TABLE 3 - Outbound tourism expenditure, by products and classes of visitors 2009 Albania ALL millions Tourists Same-day (overnight visitors visitors) Visitors Products (3.1) (3.2) (3.3)=(3.1)+(3.2) A. Consumption products A.1 Tourism Characteristic products A.2 Other Consumption products TOTAL reported in Euros and it has been converted into ALL. 149,688 Source: Bank of Albania – Travel Services Account (Debits) 4.5 TSA Table 4 Whilst Tables 1 to 3 have been concerned with tourism expenditure, Table 4 introduces other components of tourism consumption. These components are: • • • Services associated with vacation accommodation on own account Tourism social transfers in kind Other imputed consumption In the future it might be that ‘vacation homes’ becomes of considerable significance in Albania because of its beautiful coastline. At this time it has not been possible to estimate any of these other components of tourism consumption. 21
  • 22. TSA TABLE 4 - Internal tourism consumption, by products Albania 2009 ALL millions Internal Tourism Expenditure Inbound tourism expenditure Products Domestic tourism expenditure (1.3) (2.9) Internal tourism expenditure (4.1) = (1.3) + (2.9) Other components of tourism consumption (4.2) Internal tourism consumption (4.3) = (4.1) + (4.2) A. Consumption products A.1 Tourism Characteristic products Accommodation Meals & Drink Local Transport Tours 36,365 39,484 19,086 6,553 7,258 8,570 5,723 464 43,623 48,054 24,809 7,017 43,623 48,054 24,809 7,017 A.2 Other Consumption products Shopping Other 35,455 34,923 3,341 6,720 38,796 41,643 38,796 41,643 171,866 32,076 203,942 TOTAL Sources: Derived from INSTAT, Bank of Albania, MTCYS, MTCYS/SNV Surveys, Consultants’ Estimates 22 Not estimated 203,942
  • 23. 5. MEASURING TOURISM SUPPLY IN ALBANIA 5.1 General Albania has been fortunate in having an outstanding Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) that produces surveys and ongoing statistics, giving a basis for considering the implementation of a Preliminary Experimental Tourism Satellite Account. Important publications include: • • • • • National Accounts, both annual and quarterly (Appendix 6) Household Budget Survey Tourism Statistics Structural Survey of Economic Enterprises (Appendix 7) Labour Force Statistics Albania works with the Eurostat classifications, NACE Rev 1.1 for industries/activities. 5.2 Tourism Characteristic Industries The TSA: RMF 2008 sets out the Tourism Characteristic Industries for which it is appropriate to present information on their production, if available (See Appendix 5). Such information is reliant upon two aspects: (1) the National Accounts relating to the different production industries; (2) the details on tourist’s expenditure in the appropriate product categories as shown in Appendix 5, which itself is reliant upon the tourist sample surveys undertaken. With these constraints it has been found necessary to limit the TSA to the main industries, which were: • • • • • Accommodation Services for Visitors and Food & Beverage Serving Industries (in effect Hotels and Restaurants) – it has not been possible to break these down Transport Travel Agencies and Transport Auxiliary Services Retail Trade Other Services ‘Retail Services’ and ‘Other Services’ have been treated as Other Industries, and outside the Tourism Industries. 5.3 Production Accounts The production accounts for the above industries have been estimated by using the information available from INSTAT. The National Accounts give the key breakdowns into Intermediate Consumption and into Gross Value Added. Both Output and Gross Value Added are in Basic Prices. The TSA: RMF recommends a specific format for Table 5 of the TSA, which sets out the production of products by the Tourism Characteristic Industries and then outlines the Inputs which will make up Intermediate Consumption, and then finally gives a breakdown of Gross Value Added into its components. It has not been possible to break up Intermediate Consumption or give a breakdown of the Value Added. 23
  • 24. TSA TABLE 5 - Production accounts of tourism industries and other industries (at basic prices) Albania 2009 ALL millions TOURISM INDUSTRIES A. Consumption products 1a & 2. 3-7. 8 – Travel AccommPassenger agencies odation and transport and Food & Transport Beverage Auxiliary Support A.1 Tourism Characteristic products (5.1a) & (5.2) (5.4) (5.8) 1 & 2. Accommodation & Food & Beverage 3-7 Transport services 8. Travel agencies and Transport Auxiliary Support Other Products TOTAL OUTPUT (at basic prices) TOTAL INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPTION (at purchasers prices) TOTAL GROSS VALUE ADDED (at basic prices) TOTAL Other Industries Output of domestic producers (at basic prices) (5.13) (5.14) 75,956 67,732 176,987 75,956 0 0 0 (5.15) = (5.13)+(5.14) 67,732 176,987 75,956 1,721,486 1,721,486 877,482 1,721,486 2,042,161 1,061,458 844,004 980,703 67,732 176,987 67,732 27,953 176,987 121,767 75,956 34,256 0 320,675 183,976 39,779 55,220 41,700 136,699 Sources: Derived from INSTAT, Consultants’ Estimates 24
  • 25. 6. ESTIMATION OF TOURISM VALUE ADDED IN ALBANIA 6.1 Reconciliation of Supply and Demand At the very heart of the TSA process, as recommended in the TSA: RMF is the concept of reconciling demand and supply. This is a powerful concept that attempts to improve both the collection and compilation of statistics as well as improving the analyses that are necessary to achieve it. It introduces an exemplary rigour into the process of using tourism statistics for economic analyses. The TSA: RMF 2008 recommends a format for Table 6 which brings together this reconciliation. The key process for bringing about the reconciliation is ‘Internal Tourism Consumption’, as measured in Table 4, and the tourism share of the production of products as indicated in Table 6. Ideally, these two measures should be entirely independent of each other. TSA:RMF 2008 suggests the following as a set of relevant indicators of the size of tourism in the economy: • • • • • 6.2 Internal tourism expenditure; Internal tourism consumption; Gross value added of tourism industries (GVATI); Tourism direct gross value added (TDGVA); Tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP). Measures of Tourism in Albania Internal Tourism Consumption and Internal Tourism Expenditure have been treated as the same and are estimated in TSA Table 4. This gives a figure in excess of ALL 200 billion. It combines international inbound tourism (both overnight visitors and same-day visitors) and domestic tourists (both overnight visitors and same-day visitors) who are travelling outside their usual environment. Gross Value Added of the Tourism Industries (GVATI) is shown in TSA Table 5. It is ALL 137 billion at Basic Prices. This estimate is limited to the three industries that have been identified as Tourism Industries. If figures for more Tourism Industries were identifiable, then the Value added of the Tourism Industries would be higher. On the other hand these Tourism Industries do supply many products to persons who are not visitors, so the total Value Added of the Tourism Industries has these different elements which mean that precisely what is included has to be taken into account when using these measures for economic decision-making. Tourism Direct Gross Value Added (TDGVA) is estimated in TSA Table 6. The figure is around ALL 87 billion which is the direct impact of tourism spending. It is the gross value added in Basic Prices by the actual tourism expenditure (or consumption). It does not take into account indirect effects or induced effects. As a proportion of Gross Value Added it is some 8.9%. But it has to be said that the Tourism Share has not been cut back to Basic Prices and thus much of it is in fact in purchaser’s prices. Tourism Direct GDP (TDGDP) is measured in market prices and involves adding back in product taxes. It will be broadly higher than the TDGVA. In taking TDGDP as a percentage of GDP, the adjustments depend on the level of taxation of tourism products in a country. Here in this exercise the Tourism Share has been in purchaser’s prices, and therefore the ALL 87 billion should really be compared with the Total GDP at market prices. In this instance the contribution is 7.6%. 25
  • 26. TSA TABLE 6 - Domestic Supply and Internal Tourism Consumption, by products (at purchaser's prices) Albania 2009 ALL millions TOURISM INDUSTRIES A. Consumption products A.1 Tourism Characteristic products 1 & 2. Accommodation & Food & Beverage 1a & 2. Accommodation and Food & Beverage Output Tourism (5.1a) & (5.2) 67,732 3-7. Passenger transport Output Tourism (5.4) 8 – Travel agencies and Transport Auxiliary Support Output Tourism (5.8) Output Other Industries Tourism (5.13) 67,732 Output Tourism (5.14) Output of domestic producers (at basic prices) Output Tourism (5.15) 67,732 176,987 8. Travel agencies and Transport Auxiliary Support 75956 7,017 Other Products 67,732 23,945 176,987 24,808 91,677 91,677 0 176,987 24,808 7,017 0 75,956 7,017 0 3-7 Transport services TOTAL OUTPUT (at basic prices) TOTAL INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPTION (at purchasers prices) TOTAL GROSS VALUE ADDED (at basic prices) TOTAL Tourism Industries 24,808 75,956 23,945 0 1,721,48 6 1,721,48 6 1,721,48 6 2,042,16 1 53,996 53,996 67,732 67,732 176,987 24,808 75,956 7,017 320,675 99,557 27,953 27,953 121,767 17,068 34,256 3,165 228,997 48,186 832,461 42,088 1,061,45 8 90,274 39,779 39,779 55,220 7,740 41,700 3,852 188,070 51,371 792,633 35,853 980,703 87,224 Sources: Derived from INSTAT, Bank of Albania, MTCYS, MTCYS/SNV Surveys, Consultants’ Estimates 77,941 177,498 Notes: (1) For goods the tourism share is established on the retail trade margin in this Table (2) Reconciliation of demand and supply for accommodation and food etc. is achieved by assuming that a large part of the supply comes from other industries. (3) Output for tourism is in purchasers’ prices. 26
  • 27. 7. EMPLOYMENT AND NON-MONETARY INDICATORS 7.1 Tourism Employment INSTAT have indicated that the level of employment in the Accommodation and Food Service Activities Hotels and Restaurants exceeded 40,000 based upon the Labour Force Survey in 2008 (Table 7.1. Table 7.1: Economic activity code (by NACE Rev1.1) for the main job Frequency Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity and gas supply Construction Wholesale and retail trades Accommodation & food service activities Transport & Telecommunication Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Public administration and defence Education Human health & social work activities Others Total 501,828 9,133 79,414 16,485 94,593 131,577 40,670 40,173 8,969 10,700 56,875 62,273 36,075 34,511 1,123,274 Valid Percent 44.7 0.8 7.1 1.5 8.4 11.7 3.6 3.6 0.8 1.0 5.1 5.5 3.2 3.1 100.0 Source: INSTAT Labour Force Survey 2008 TSA Table 7 on employment has a relatively demanding data requirement, linking much of the required data to Establishments. 7.2 Non-Monetary Indicators The last of the Tables in the TSA is TSA Table 10, which is described as Non-Monetary Indicators. TSA Table 8 (Collective Consumption) and TSA Table 9 (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) are as yet and for the time being are not included in the TSA. TSA Table 10 has not been completed in this exercise. 27
  • 28. 8. THE WAY FORWARD 8.1 General This report presents a preliminary assessment of the order of magnitude of the TSA results in accord with the UNWTO methodology. Many improvements are required in order to take forward this first Preliminary Experimental TSA through to a full TSA which is being done on a regular basis, for example perhaps in a three year cycle with interpolations for the intervening two years. What needs to be done to achieve this is addressed in the following four subsections under the headings of: • • • • 8.2 Inter-institutional platform Technical Issues Roles and Responsibilities Timing and Budget Inter-institutional Platform (IIP) The TSA requires a great deal of collaboration to collect, compile and analyse primary statistics from a whole range of different institutions. To date in Albania such collaboration has been good and can continue to be so. Whilst every country is different, what has been successfully implemented in some countries is to have coordination at two levels. In essence (1) a high level which acts as a steering committee, and (2) at a working level, where all the basic statistical coordination and analyses are done. If there are very difficult technical issues to be tackled then specific ad hoc technical committees can be created to resolve these issues. The basic structure is illustrated in Figure 8.1. Figure 8.1 Organisation Scheme At present cooperation is at an informal level for the TSA, but it would be best to formalise an IIP. 28
  • 29. 8.3 Technical Issues There are many technical issues to be taken forward in improving the TSA. These are viewed under the following topics: Demand • Arrival Statistics • Integrating the Visitor Surveys • Domestic Tourism Survey Supply • Tourism Characteristic Products and Tourism Characteristic Industries • Supply and Use Table Training for Arrival Statistics A very substantial effort has gone into collecting primary statistics on tourism in Albania, where the collection of primary statistics is not easy because of the large number of border posts, and because of the large number of business enterprises involved with tourists. All borders in Albania are computerised and Entry/ Departure Cards are not used. MTCYS is helping the General Directorate of Police in training for border tourism statistics with a view to obtaining more information on visitors. This is a process which needs to continue. Arrival statistics do represent a count of numbers which can be highly accurate. Particularly important are considerations regarding the visitors and tourist arrivals to ensure that there is not the inclusion of arriving non-residents that are not visitors, and that there is not a count of day-visitors who are included as though they are staying overnight. The MTCYS approach of attempting to establish key market segments, such as ‘purpose of visit’, will be very useful. Integrating the visitor surveys There are visitor surveys carried out by INSTAT for BA, and visitor surveys carried out for MTCYS (with SNV assistance). It would be useful to integrate (in some suitable manner) these two visitor survey processes so that even more information can be obtained for users. An example is shown in Appendix 11 and should be referred to for guidance only. Understandably BA are collecting data through their border sample surveys of visitors for their own needs. MTCYS are collecting data from their sample surveys, focused on accommodation, for their own needs, and the tourism industry’s needs. INSTAT are central to the whole process as they carry out the basic fieldwork for BA. MTCYS (and the tourism industry) would benefit the most from an integration of the work on visitor sample surveys, and consequently MTCYS should press the case. A prime need is to have a breakdown by key segments of visitors so that the grossing up from sample surveys to the full ‘universe’ of tourists (and excursionists) visiting Albania, can be done through these key segments. The key segments should cover (1) purpose of visit but broken down by business and personal but within personal by holiday, VFR and Other, and (2) by use of accommodation, particularly for serviced accommodation, rented accommodation, second home, camping/ caravanning, and (3) by mode of transport into Albania. For each of these segments it is best to know the length of stay, the expenditure per day (24 hours) and the breakdown of that expenditure into different components – ideally, aligning the components as much as possible with the requirements of the TSA. The more breakdowns that are necessary, the larger the sample size has to be in order to achieve reasonable relative sampling errors. It is in this context that integration of the two survey processes would allow the different sample surveys to tackle different issues. There are many 29
  • 30. ways in which this can be achieved, and it is for MTCYS, INSTAT and BA to work out an appropriate way forward. Domestic Tourism Survey There is a need for a domestic tourism survey (household) to identify frequency of tourist trips and day visits, length of stay, and expenditure on such domestic tourism. Such a survey could be part of another household survey in order to reduce costs. An example of a domestic survey is provided in Appendix 10. Tourism Characteristic Products and Industries At present it has been possible to refer to only three tourism characteristic industries in the Preliminary Experimental TSA. It has to be decided (by the ‘Core TSA Team’) what tourism characteristic products and what tourism characteristic industries can be included in the Tourism Satellite Account. There is an excellent ‘Structural Survey of Economic Enterprises’ but this survey would need to be expanded to meet the needs of the TSA, as one of its many users. For example, at present a sample is drawn from Hotels and Restaurants as one ‘universe’ whereas Hotel and Restaurants would need to be sampled as separate industries for the purposes of the TSA, as would some of the other industries. Supply and Use Tables INSTAT has already embarked upon the task of establishing and balancing a Supply and Use Table. Their basic programme is to have this completed in 2012 for the Reference Year 2010. This is an essential task for improving the TSA. 8.4 Roles and Responsibilities Roles and responsibilities are considered in Table 8.2. Key issues are raised in the Table. Possible options as to which institution might take responsibility for the issue are presented. An initial suggestion as to which might the preferable option is made. Table 8.2: Roles and Responsibilities Item Options Suggestions Who will lead? INSTAT MTCYS Because it is a tourism issue it might be best for MTCYS to be the leader, though it is appreciated that there are constraints with resources and capabilities. However leadership of the Core TSA Team needs to be with INSTAT. Because of the standards required by INSTAT, it is preferable to publish from INSTAT, or possibly a ‘special vehicle’ for the purpose. MTCYS has to take the lead in this. Who will publish? INSTAT MTCYS Who will set up MTCYS IIP? Training for Border MTCYS Statistics Integrating Visitor MTCYS BA Surveys Structural INSTAT Business Survey - MTCYS Expand MTCYS should continue with the training at the borders though clearly there are resource constraints to be overcome. This would be a suitable issue for a specially convened Technical Committee (BA and MTCYS) reporting to the ‘Core TSA Team’. INSTAT would carry this out in response to the ‘Core TSA Team’ requests, though there are resource constraints to be considered. 30 Suggested Priority P1 P2 P1 P1 P2 P2
  • 31. Supply & Use Table Tourism Characteristic Products Tourism Characteristic Industries Domestic Travel Surveys INSTAT Already in hand with INSTAT. P1 MTCYS/INSTAT This would be a suitable issue for a specially convened Technical Committee reporting to the ‘Core TSA Team’. This would be a suitable issue for a specially convened Technical Committee reporting to the ‘Core TSA Team’. INSTAT would carry this out with the requests and the requirements for information coming from MTCYS and the ‘Core TSA Team’. Resources will be a major issue. Most of this is already in hand with INSTAT, depending on the detail decided upon by the ‘Core TSA Team’. This has to be carried out as a cooperative exercise between MTCYS and INSTAT. P1 MTCYS/INSTAT INSTAT Employment Data INSTAT Non-Monetary Indicators 8.5 MTCYS INSTAT P1 P3 P2 P1 Timing and Budget A possible timeframe has been suggested in Table 8.3. The proposal is that a Second Experimental TSA could be put together for 2012 as Reference Year by the end of 2013. A third such TSA could be put together by end 2016 with reference to the Year 2015. The Supply and Use Tables would be used in the Second and the Third Experimental TSA. Table 8.3 Possible TSA Development Key Milestones Formalise the Inter-Institutional Platform (IIP) 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd Demand Complete Border Police Training – MTCYS Tourist Arrivals - New Format - INSTAT & MTCYS Integrate Visitor Surveys – MTCYS and BA 2012 2012 Domestic Tourism Surveys – INSTAT 2012 Supply - INSTAT Structural Business Surveys - Extend to Tourism Industries Extract out Tourism Industries into National Accounts Preparation of the Supply and Use Tables 2012 2012 2010 Reconciliation First Experimental TSA – Consultants Second Experimental TSA with SUT INSTAT/MTCYS Third Experimental TSA with SUT INSTAT/MTCYS 2014 2009 2012 2015 31
  • 32. Though five years looks to be a long timeframe, this is the scale of timing to reach a TSA that will address all the various issues in the guidelines of the TSA:RMF 2008. Understandably resources will be a major issue for MTCYS and for INSTAT. As a broad order of magnitude the additional resources (basically personnel and surveys) are likely to be around !52,000 per year. Although INSTAT has excellent statisticians, there may be a need for some Technical Assistance for resolving some of the technical issues as the whole process is new for Albania. The budget estimate is shown in Table 8.4. Table 8.4 Possible Annual Budget (Additional) Item Staffing INSTAT – National Accounts Economic Statistics MTCYS TSA Statistician Total Person Months Unit Months Unit Rate (!) Total Cost (!) 12 6 18 Programme Costs Training Costs – MTCYS Survey Costs - MTCYS Survey Costs - INSTAT Sub-Total Administrative and Operational Services TOTAL Source: Consultants’ estimates 1,000 Allocation 20% 32 18,000 5,000 10,000 10,000 43,000 8,600 51,600
  • 33. APPENDIX 1: INBOUND RESULTS FROM MTCYS/SNV VISITOR SURVEY 1. GENERAL The Sample survey provided a sample of international inbound visitors of 1,000 plus. The survey was also aimed at domestic travellers within Albania. Limitations to be borne in mind are that: • • • • The survey covered seven of the twelve regions in Albania – but these were important regions for tourism, but nonetheless geographical coverage was partial (Table 1). Expenditure was related to expected expenditure by the respondent on the day. This gives good recall for the respondent but may miss actual spending or actual non-spending. Approaches to respondents were not at the border, and so this lacks the precision of a border interview. The months for the survey were in the latter half and quarter of 2010, which misses the peak season of July/August when in fact expenditure per day actually reduces compared with the year round average. Despite these limitations we have taken the view that the results give a useful insight into the expenditure of different segments of the tourism markets for Albania. Table 1: Regions Captured for International Visitors (sample) Frequency Berat Durres Gjirokastra Korca Kukes Tirana Vlora Total Source: MTCYS Sample Percent 180 190 96 146 107 84 409 1,212 14.9 15.7 7.9 12.0 8.8 6.9 33.7 100.0 Table 2: Purpose of Visit of International Visitors (sample) Frequency Business In Transit Other Recreation/Leisure/Holiday VFR Total Source: MTCYS Sample Percent 147 94 104 675 192 1,212 12.1 7.8 8.6 55.7 15.8 100.0 The MTCYS/SNV sample in the latter period of 2010 has a lower business proportion than the sample of the Bank of Albania in Q4 2009 (27%). So the MTCYS sample possibly has an exceptional focus on personal travel and within that upon holiday/recreation/ leisure travel (Table 2). The sample covers international visitors from a range of countries, where they are resident, along the following lines in Table 3. 33
  • 34. Table 3: Country of Residence (sample) Frequency France Germany Greece Italy Kosovo Macedonia United Kingdom United States Other Total Source: MTCYS Sample Percent 61 77 252 263 57 86 40 63 313 1,212 5.0 6.4 20.8 21.7 4.7 7.1 3.3 5.2 25.8 100.0 Table 4: Country of Residence and Nationality (sample) !"#$%"&'"( )*+$,&*-$+.(#*/"(*#(!"#$%"&'"( )*+$,&*-$+.($#(0-1*&$*&( !"#$%&' ()*' +,*' -&".#$/' 00*' ))*' -"&&%&' +0*' 01*' 23#4/' 5(*' 5(*' 678797' 1:*' 0*' ;#%&<7$=#' (:*' +0*' >$=3&<'6=$?<7.' 0(*' +@*' >$=3&<'A3#3&8' B)*' :(*' C3D&"' 0B*' ))*' ECEFG' ' :1*' Source: MTCYS Sample The Country of Residence picture is coloured by the large number of Albanians living abroad, so for example, in the sample some 79% of the Greek Residents responded that they had Albanian nationality. Table 5: Foreigners – Country of Residence (sample) and Foreign Arrivals in Albania Country of Sample Residence Frequency France 51 Germany 60 Greece 52 Italy 136 Kosovo 53 Macedonia 71 United Kingdom 36 United States 39 Other 245 Total 743 Source: MTCYS Sample Percent of Sample 6.9 8.1 7.0 18.3 7.1 9.6 4.8 5.2 33.0 100.0 34 Foreign Arrivals 2009 19,342 47,240 100,171 98,919 674,214 306,714 56,734 Percent of Foreign Arrivals 1.1% 2.6% 5.6% 5.5% 37.7% 17.2% 3.2% 482,711 1,786,045 27.1 100.0%
  • 35. Ignoring issues such as the focus of sampling being on personal travel, the total sample averages cannot be used as being applicable to the ‘universe’ of foreign arrivals. Measures of central tendency for Individual segments can be so used, if used with caution. Package tours to Albania look as though they will be a segment of significance in the future. Some 17% of the sample indicated that they were on package, though only 6-7% said that the package included travel and accommodation costs. The principal issue with packages is that another party has paid for some services on behalf of the tourist in the country of destination. Sample surveys of visitors enquiring about direct spend will miss this spending, which is not important when it is not significant, but if pre-paid packages become important, then a part of the tourist spending will be missed unless information is collected on the package price and that part of the price that comes into Albania. Table 6: Packages Proportion answering 'Yes' - % Package Tour 16.8 Includes: International travel 6.9 Accommodation 6.4 Local travel 7.4 Local tours 10.4 Source: MTCYS Sample 2. AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY The sample divided into international tourists who were foreigners as Foreign Tourists and Albanians resident abroad, who are tourists when staying overnight and day-visitors when not staying overnight. Foreign Tourists For the international tourists in the sample, who are foreigners, the average length of stay was 5.5 nights in the region. But there were considerable differences according to the purpose of the trip. Business domestic visitors are on a longer trip than VFR, whilst the leisure trips are relatively short at 2.8 nights. The median length of stay also varies substantially (Table 7). Length of stay according to type of accommodation used also varies substantially. Private accommodation has a length of stay more than twice that of stays in hotels. Length of stay varies between different source markets but the arithmetic means vary typically between 2.5 nights and 6.0 nights. The market with a lengthier stay comprises foreign tourists coming from Italy (12.6 nights) (Table 7). Table 7: International Foreign Tourists – Nights in Region by Purpose of Visit, by type of Accommodation, and by country of residence (sample) Purpose Of Visit Business Recreation/Leisure/Holiday VFR Total Mean Nights N Relative Sampling Error +/- Median Nights 19.0 86 26% 4.5 2.8 466 14% 2.0 8.6 27 39% 7.0 5.5 606 17% 2.0 35
  • 36. Accommodation Used (Place 1) Mean Nights Guest House Relative Sampling Error +/- Median Nights 20.1 Total Mean Nights 34% 7.0 4.3 Private Accommodation 34 530 20% 2.0 10.7 Hotel Country of Residence N 30 55% 2.5 606 17% Relative Sampling Error +/- 5.5 N Median Nights 2.0 France 3.2 36 42% 2.0 Germany 5.4 57 79% 2.0 Greece 3.4 44 52% 2.0 Italy 12.6 108 28% 3.0 Kosovo 2.6 53 26% 2.0 Macedonia 2.5 70 59% 1.0 United Kingdom 3.4 30 31% 2.0 United States 6.0 35 46% 2.0 Other 4.4 173 32% 2.0 Total 5.5 606 17% 2.0 Source: MTCYS Sample Tourists – Albanians Resident Abroad The Albanians in the sample visiting their own home country have a length of stay that is nearly twice that of foreign tourists, namely 10.2 nights. Differences according to the purpose of the trip are not large (8.7 – 11.8 nights). Differences according to the type of accommodation used are also not large (7.7 – 11.0 nights). Differences start to widen according to where the source markets are. Albanians in the sample coming from Italy have a length of stay of around 12 nights (Table 8). Table 8: Albanians resident abroad visiting Albania as International Tourists – Nights in Region by Purpose of Visit, by type of Accommodation, and by country of residence (sample) Purpose Of Visit Mean Nights Business Private Accommodation 7.0 77 24% 6.0 134 14% 10.0 139 14% 10.0 392 9% Relative Sampling Error +/- 11.0 63 22% 7.0 7.7 86 25% 4.5 10.9 Mean Nights 39% 10.2 Total 35 10.7 VFR Hotel Median Nights 8.7 Recreation/Leisure/Holiday Guest House Relative Sampling Error +/- 11.8 Other Accommodation Used (Place 1) N 243 11% 10.0 10.2 36 N Median Nights 7.0
  • 37. Total Country of Residence Mean Nights 10.2 Greece 392 N 9% Relative Sampling Error +/- Median Nights 7.0 7.8 161 12% 7.0 Italy 12.0 114 14% 10.0 Other 11.5 57 27% 8.0 Total 10.2 392 9% 7.0 Source: MTCYS Sample 3. AVERAGE EXPENDITURE PER DAY Day Visitors The international foreign day-visitors in the sample are spending ALL 4,438 (approx !32) whereas the Albanians in the sample visiting from abroad for a day-visit are spending nearly twice that at ALL 9,805. Tourists International Foreign Tourists are spending ALL 11,239 per day (24 hours) (approx ! 82). Business travellers in the sample are spending the most per day whilst VFR are spending the least but even then VFR tourists are spending ALL 9587 (approx !70). Spending in the hotels is more than the daily spend in private accommodation but only 50% higher (Table 9). Albanian international tourists (Albanians resident abroad and visiting Albania) in the sample spend at similar levels to the international foreign tourists – ALL 10,513 (!77 approx). But for a number of market segments the Albanians are spending more per day than the foreigners – business, leisure and VFR (Table 10). The overall average is brought down by a mix of other travel purposes. Similarly the Albanians are spending more when staying in the Guest Houses, the Hotels and in Private Accommodation, though the actual spend may not necessarily be in the accommodation itself. According to the sample, it is clear that the Albanian market abroad is an attractive one because not only is the daily spend similar to international foreign tourists but the length of stay is nearly twice as long. Table 9: International Foreign Visitors - Expenditure per day by Purpose of Visit and by Accommodation Used INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN DAY VISITORS Purpose Of Visit Mean ALL In Transit Recreation/Leisure/Holiday Total INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN TOURISTS Purpose of Visit Business N Relative Sampling Error +/- Median ALL 1670 61 60% 0 4955 46 37% 750 4438 137 26% 450 Mean ALL N 14,993 Relative Sampling Error +/86 37 Median ALL 40% 9,660
  • 38. Recreation/Leisure/Holiday 10,746 INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN TOURISTS Accommodation Used 8% 9,500 27 40% 5,833 11,293 Total 466 9,587 VFR 606 10% 9,500 Mean ALL Guest House N Relative Sampling Error +/- Median ALL 8,069 Source: MTCYS Sample 5,088 530 10% 10,000 30 40% 2,800 11,293 Total 39% 7,822 Private Accommodation 34 11,762 Hotel 606 10% 9,500 Table 10: Albanians visiting from abroad - Expenditure per day by Purpose of Visit and by Accommodation Used EXPAT ALBANIAN DAY VISITORS Purpose Of Visit Recreation/Leisure/Holiday Total EXPAT ALBANIAN TOURISTS Purpose of Visit Business Other Recreation/Leisure/Holiday VFR Total EXPAT ALBANIAN TOURISTS Accommodation Used Guest House Hotel Private Accommodation Total Source: MTCYS Sample Mean ALL N Relative Sampling Error +/- Median ALL 7,440 29 44% 4,140 9,805 77 41% 4,500 Mean ALL N Relative Sampling Error +/- Median ALL 17,989 35 90% 4,830 4,642 77 24% 3,200 13,106 134 22% 6,950 9,606 139 24% 4,000 10,513 392 19% 5,000 Mean ALL N Relative Sampling Error +/- Median ALL 18,913 63 27% 8,400 12,370 86 29% 7,050 7,678 243 33% 3,450 10,513 392 19% 5,000 38
  • 39. APPENDIX 2: HOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY 2006/2007 (INSTAT) Table 1: Annual And Monthly Income By Household Type Household type Single person Households Persons Total Annual Income ALL (000) Annual Income (ALL) In % Household Per capita Monthly Income (ALL) Household Per capita 44,294 44,294 7,898,049 2.3 178,310 178,310 14,859 14,859 111,401 222,802 37,630,085 10.9 337,789 168,895 28,149 14,075 68,930 206,791 34,949,871 10.1 507,033 169,011 42,253 14,084 Couple with two children 139,468 557,874 72,540,777 21.1 520,123 130,031 43,344 10,836 Couple with 3+ children 105,751 569,982 43,139,219 12.5 407,931 77,559 33,994 6,463 89,565 291,996 38,873,421 11.3 434,024 138,421 36,169 11,535 Other family 193,007 1,061,114 109,342,590 31.8 566,523 109,705 47,210 9,142 Total 752,416 2,954,852 344,374,012 100.0 457,691 130,608 38,141 10,884 Couple without children Couple with one child One parent family Source: Household Budget Survey, 2006-2007 INSTAT 39
  • 40. APPENDIX 3: ALBANIAN TOURIST SPENDING OUTBOUND - 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Non-Resident Outbound Personal Business 000 000 202 120 368 153 520 201 327 156 1,417 630 Total nights millions Personal Business 1.8 0.7 2.6 0.9 4.7 1.0 2.6 0.9 11.7 Average Length of Stay Personal Business Days Days 9 6 7 6 9 5 8 6 Spend per day – Euro Personal Business 81 108 79 107 65 73 62 80 3.6 Total spend Euro millions Personal Business 147 78 204 98 304 73 162 75 817 324 1,141 Source: Derived from Bank of Albania 40
  • 41. APPENDIX 4: DOMESTIC RESULTS FROM MTCYS/SNV VISITOR SURVEY The Sample survey provided a sample of domestic tourists of 1,000 plus. The survey was also aimed at international travellers to Albania. Limitations to be borne in mind are that: • • • • The survey covered seven of the twelve regions in Albania – but these were important regions for tourism, but nonetheless geographical coverage was partial (See Table 1). Expenditure was related to expected expenditure by the respondent on the day. This gives good recall for the respondent but may miss actual spending or actual non-spending. The months for the survey were in the latter half and quarter of 2010, which misses the peak season of July/August. The approach to domestic tourists was focused on accommodation, and thus has a bias towards hotel users. Despite these limitations we have taken the view that the results for specific segments give a useful insight into the expenditure of those different segments, but it cannot be used for grossing up to a total for expenditure by domestic tourists. Table 1: Regions captured for domestic visitors (sample) Region Berat Durres Gjirokastra Korca Kukes Tirana Vlora Total Frequency Percent 12 208 56 450 156 41 189 1,112 1.1 18.7 5.0 40.5 14.0 3.7 17.0 100.0 Source: MTCYS Sample Table 2: Purpose Of Visit of Domestic visitors (sample) Purpose of Visit Business In Transit Other Recreation/Leisur e/Holiday VFR Total Frequency Percent 189 161 79 560 17.0 14.5 7.1 50.4 123 1112 11.1 100.0 Source: MTCYS Sample Within the sample the Purpose of Visit was approximately half for recreation/leisure/holiday (Table 2). However there were more than 100 respondents in each of the categories of Business, In Transit and VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives). 41
  • 42. The sample comprised visitors from the different prefectures, though the largest proportion unsurprisingly was from Tirana (Table 3), as one would expect it to be - from the largest conurbation in the country. Table 3: Origin of the Domestic Visitor (sample) Region Berat Durres Elbasan Fier Gjirokastra Korca Kukes Lezhe Shkodra Tirana Vlora Other Total Frequency Percent 43 118 107 117 26 50 40 23 40 401 88 59 1,112 3.9 10.6 9.6 10.5 2.3 4.5 3.6 2.1 3.6 36.1 7.9 5.3 100.0 Source: MTCYS Sample Only two percent of respondents indicated that they were on a package tour, so this is not a factor of significance as yet in domestic tourism in Albania (Table 4). Table 4: Package Tour (sample) No Yes Total Frequency 1,087 25 1,112 Percent 97.8 2.2 100.0 Source: MTCYS Sample Average Length Of Stay The sample divided into domestic tourists (domestic residents staying overnight) and domestic day-visitors (respondents indicating that they were not staying overnight). For the domestic tourists in the sample the average length of stay was 4.5 nights in the region. But there were considerable differences according to the purpose of the trip. Business domestic visitors are on a considerably longer trip than domestic VFR and domestic leisure tourists. However the median length of stay is two nights for all purposes with the exception of domestic transit visitors staying overnight where one night is the median (Table 5). Different types of accommodation used had differing lengths of stay, with hotels having the shortest mean length of stay (arithmetic) with 3 nights. The median length of stay, which could be described as the typical length of stay was between 2 and 3 nights for all types of accommodation in the sample (Table 6). 42
  • 43. Table 5: Domestic Tourists – Nights in Region by Purpose of Visit (sample) Purpose Of Visit Mean Nights Business 8.2 148 Relative Sampling Error +/33% In Transit 1.3 21 19% 1.0 13.0 58 40% 2.0 Recreation/Leisure/Holiday 2.6 438 16% 2.0 VFR 2.9 103 17% 2.0 Total 4.5 768 16% 2.0 Other N Median Nights 2.0 Source: MTCYS Sample Table 6: Domestic Tourists – Nights in Region by Type of Accommodation (sample) Accommodation Used (Place 1) 12.2 76 Relative Sampling Error +/35% Hotel 3.0 593 19% 2.0 Private Accommodation 6.6 86 38% 2.5 Other 13.8 13 82% 2.0 Total 4.5 768 16% 2.0 Guest House Mean N Median 3.0 Source: MTCYS Sample There are few opportunities for reconciliation with other data, but INSTAT gives information on hotel arrivals and hotel nights for 2008, whereby 156,000 Albanian hotel arrivals generated 360,000 nights, an average of 2.3 nights per guest. This average is of the same order of magnitude for hotels as the MTCYS sample survey. Average Expenditure Per Day For the domestic visitors the expenditure per day varies between the day-visitors and the tourists. In the sample the expenditure for day-visitors was ALL 2,840, whilst for tourists it was ALL 6,851 (Table 7). In the sample, there were not large differences according to the purpose of the trip. For tourists staying overnight the average expenditure between those travelling for leisure, for VFR and for Business were relatively similar. For day-visitors the differences were more marked. However for domestic tourists, as opposed to day-visitors, the different types of accommodation used had differing expenditure levels, with tourists staying in hotels spending per day nearly three times the amount of those staying in private accommodation. 43
  • 44. Table 7: Domestic Visitors - Expenditure per day by Purpose of Visit and by Accommodation Used DOMESTIC DAY VISITORS Purpose of Visit Mean ALL N Business 4,562 41 Relative Sampling Error +/34% Median ALL In Transit 2,310 140 47% 570 Other 2,567 21 36% 2,060 Recreation/Leisure/Holiday 2,796 122 18% 2,000 VFR 3,570 20 36% 2,683 Total 2,840 344 18% 1,409 3,500 DOMESTIC TOURISTS Purpose of Visit Mean ALL N Business 7,217 148 Relative Sampling Error +/25% Median ALL In Transit 5,621 21 44% 4,000 Other 3,173 58 21% 3,250 Recreation/Leisure/Holiday 7,262 438 11% 5,500 VFR 6,895 103 31% 3,000 Total 6,851 768 9% 5,000 10,047 76 Relative Sampling Error +/39% Hotel 7,167 593 9% 5,500 Private Accommodation 2,487 86 23% 1,775 Total 6,851 768 9% 5,000 5,000 DOMESTIC TOURISTS Accommodation Used Guest House Mean ALL N Source: MTCYS Sample 44 Median ALL 4,000
  • 45. APPENDIX 5: PRODUCTS AND TOURISM INDUSTRIES Classification of products and tourism industries in tables 5 and 6 Products Tourism industries A. Consumption products A.1 Tourism characteristic products 1. Accommodation services for visitors 1. Accommodation for visitors 1.a Accommodation services for visitors 1.a. Accommodation for visitors other than other than 1.b 1b 1.b Accommodation services 1.b Accommodation associated with associated with all types of vacation all types of vacation home ownership home ownership 2. Food and beverage serving services 2. Food and beverage serving industry 3. Railway passenger transport services 3. Railway passenger transport 4. Road passenger transport services 4. Road passenger transport 5. Water passenger transport services 5. Water passenger transport 6. Air passenger transport services 6. Air passenger transport 7. Transport equipment rental services 7. Transport equipment rental 8. Travel agencies and other reservation services 8. Travel agencies and other reservation services industry 9. Cultural services 9. Cultural industry 10. Sports and recreational services 10. Sports and recreational industry 11. Country-specific tourism characteristic goods 11. Retail trade of country-specific tourism characteristic goods 12. Country-specific tourism characteristic services 12. Other country-specific tourism characteristic industries A.2 Tourism connected products A.3 Non-tourism related consumption products B. Non-consumption products B.1 Valuables B.2 Other non-consumption products Source: TSA:RMF 2008 45
  • 46. APPENDIX 6: NATIONAL ACCOUNTS DATA Table 1: OUTPUT AND VALUE ADDED ALL millions Nr 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Item Output Intermediate Consumption Gross Value Added (3 = 1 - 2) FISIM (-) Net taxes on products Subsidies on products (-) GDP at market prices (3-4+5-6) 2005 1,401,806 664,171 2006 1,525,496 730,311 2007 1,739,537 866,895 2008* 1,942,573 970,041 2009** 2,020,027 995,981 737,636 23,508 104,158 3,489 795,185 30,446 121,188 3,718 872,641 38,681 136,789 3,079 972,532 40,902 158,847 2,344 1,024,047 43,344 164,717 1,810 814,797 882,209 967,670 1,088,132 1,143,610 124 123 124 123 132 6,571 7,172 7,804 8,847 8,664 ALL to 1 Euro GDP at market prices (in Euro billions) * 2008 Semi-final ** 2009 Preliminary Source: INSTAT Table 2: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES (at current prices - in million ALL) Nr. Branches 1 Agriculture, hunting and forestry 2 Industry 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009** 151,640 154,648 165,748 180,329 193,296 78,319 88,207 81,693 95,665 95,593 5,576 5,894 8,005 11,131 9,830 72,743 82,313 73,687 84,534 85,763 101,759 113,724 129,585 145,215 145,519 405,917 438,606 495,615 551,323 589,638 159,029 166,125 185,037 206,098 217,475 40,986 43,350 47,325 51,850 55,220 28,257 31,614 37,208 41,829 45,594 177,645 197,517 226,044 251,546 271,349 23,508 30,446 38,681 40,902 43,344 714,128 764,739 833,960 931,629 980,703 104,158 121,188 136,789 158,847 164,717 3,489 3,718 3,079 2,344 1,810 814,797 882,209 967,670 1,088,132 1,143,610 - Extracting Industry - Manufacturing Industry 3 Construction 4 Total Services -Trade, Hotels and Restaurants -Transport -Post and communication -Other Services 5 FISIM (-) 6 7 GROSS VALUE ADDED AT BASIC PRICES (1+..+ 5) Taxes on products 8 Subsidies on products (-) GDP AT MARKET PRICES (6+7-8) * 2008 Semi-final ** 2009 Preliminary Source: INSTAT 46
  • 47. Table 3: MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS Item Gross domestic product at current prices (in million ALL) Annual real growth of GDP at constant prices compared to previous year, in % Average annual population (in thousand inhabitants) Gross domestic product per capita 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009** 814,797 882,209 967,670 1,088,132 1,143,610 5.7 5.4 5.9 7.7 3.3 3,142 3,151 3,161 3,182 3,194 259 280 306 342 358 EURO 2,088 2,275 2,476 2,785 2,711 USD 2,597 2,854 3,385 4,076 3,769 124 123 124 123 132 thousands ALL ALL to 1 Euro Source: INSTAT Table 4: GDP USING EXPENDITURE (ALL million, current prices) 2005 2006 2007 Final Consumption Item 724,171 771,105 874,937 Final Consumption of the Households 634,471 680,323 775,081 861,890 88,508 89,411 98,352 110,922 1,192 1,371 1,504 1,691 301,354 343,882 374,058 415,121 1,025,525 1,114,987 1,248,995 1,389,625 -200,824 -208,067 -258,520 -290,065 Exports of goods and services (f.o.b) 185,970 219,974 272,164 319,931 Imports of goods and services (f.o.b) 386,794 428,040 530,683 609,997 -9,904 -24,712 -22,805 -11,427 814,797 882,209 967,670 1,088,132 Final Consumption of General Government Consumption of NPISHs Gross Fixed Capital Formation Domestic Absorption Net export Change in inventories & statistical discrepancy GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Source: INSTAT Note * semi-final 47 2008* 974,504
  • 48. APPENDIX 7: BREAKDOWN ON SELECTED INDUSTRIES Rail Transport OPERATIONS Turnover Other Income (Stocks, WIP) Total Income Total Costs Profit Cost Breakdown: Raw Materials & Consumables Goods for Resale Personnel Costs Other Costs Total ECONOMIC VALUES Production Value Intermediate Consumption Value Added Value Added as % Production Composition of Value Added: Personnel Costs Profits Other (Residual) Personnel Costs to Production Profits to Production Road Transport Retail Trade Hotels & Restaurants Other Services 369 96 465 1575 -1110 19,274 198 19,472 16,004 3468 9,819 164 9,983 10,061 -78 12,900 862 13,762 11,313 2449 87,949 1,062 89,011 74,061 14950 28,704 574 29,278 23,067 6211 5,576 73 5,649 4,922 727 " 454 12,789 8,831 5,775 8,579 15,215 3,002 " " " " 0 564 557 1,575 173 1,493 1,549 16,004 8 665 557 10,061 105 2,453 2,980 11,313 59,150 4,482 1,850 74,061 2,800 3,650 1,402 23,067 150 1,469 301 4,922 " " " % 819 454 365 44.6% 19,183 12,789 6,394 33.3% 9,812 8,831 981 10.0% 12,795 5,775 7,020 54.9% 28,889 8,579 20,310 70.3% 26,263 15,215 11,048 42.1% 5,423 3,002 2,421 44.6% % % % % 154.5% -304.1% 249.6% 68.9% 23.4% 54.2% 22.4% 7.8% 67.8% -8.0% 40.2% 6.8% 34.9% 34.9% 30.2% 19.2% 22.1% 73.6% 4.3% 15.5% 33.0% 56.2% 10.7% 13.9% 60.7% 30.0% 9.3% 27.1% % -135.5% 18.1% -0.8% 19.1% 51.7% 23.6% 13.4% ALL (mn) " " " " Other Transport Source: INSTAT, Structural Survey of Economic Enterprises 48 Auxiliary Activities & Travel Agencies
  • 49. APPENDIX 8: COMPARATIVE DATA Country Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovakia Slovenia ALBANIA 2004 1.35 2004 2.31 2006 3.38 2005 5.39 2003 2.00 2009 3.19 1.34 9685 13730 2.25 11176 18768 3.33 23979 26650 5.42 38462 63332 2.05 25736 34894 8664 Change in GDP Ref. Year to 2009 GDP per capita PPS - Reference Year 42% 57 68% 46 11% 55 65% 60 36% 83 GDP per capita PPS - 2008 (Eurostat) Reference Yr - GDP/PoP. Euro TOURISM 67 7228 57 4967 62 7201 72 7096 91 12554 ! mn 10 326 500 26 125 135 1373 1700 657 1157 1276 1302 466 466 39 204 1341 933 243 1091 539 744 1134 Reference Year Population - millions (from Eurostat) Population 2010 millions GDP ! m - Reference Year GDP ! m 2009 (from Eurostat) ! mn ! mn DEMAND Inbound Tourism Consumption - same-day inbound visitors - inbound tourists - all inbound visitors 920 Domestic Tourism Consumption - same-day domestic visitors - domestic tourists - all resident visitors Outbound Tourism Consumption - same-day outbound ! mn ! mn 466 86 57 134 143 603 2716 ! mn 205 - outbound tourists - all outbound visitors Total - Internal Tourism Consumption - Inbound + Domestic - Adjustments 1054 0 278 -15 1068 0 3041 332 2090 -23 1545 0 Total - Internal Tourism Consumption 1054 263 1068 3373 2167 1545 Accommodation Services Food & Beverage Serving Services 35 66 183 128 564 530 392 288 331 364 Passenger Transport Services Travel Agency, Tour Operator / Guides Cultural Services 44 14 11 155 241 106 676 77 83 228 34 66 188 53 Recreation & Entertainment Services Miscellaneous Tourism Services Total 31 1 201 813 120 79 2128 286 17 1311 936 - Connected and Non-Specific Total Internal Tourism Consumption 1054 61 263 256 1068 913 3041 856 2167 609 1545 Final Consumption by Households Inbound: Total Household 5714 16% 3301 4% 27692 6% 13568 9% 7007 19% Final Consumption by Households Inbound: Total Household 5714 16% 3301 4% 27692 6% 13568 9% 7007 19% (HFCE 2008) 8533 342 4.0% 4682 121 2.6% 43814 935 2.1% 21309 824 3.9% 7430 661 8.9% Internal Consumption by Products - Characteristic Products VALUE ADDED Total Value Added Tourism Value Added Tourism as % Total Sources: EUROSTAT and INSTAT 49 21378 574 2.7%
  • 50. APPENDIX 9: ACCOMMODATION UTILISATION Durres Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Tirana Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Vlora Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 All Regions Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Room Occupancy Rate (%) 14.6 11.4 13.0 9.5 Bed Occupancy Rate (%) 13.3 10.5 10.6 10.1 Length of Stay (nights) Room Occupancy Rate (%) 29.4 27.8 23.8 18.4 Bed Occupancy Rate (%) 18.6 19.4 17.5 12.5 Length of Stay (nights) Room Occupancy Rate (%) 13.0 12.1 7.3 6.0 Bed Occupancy Rate (%) 14.6 7.2 5.3 4.6 Length of Stay (nights) Room Occupancy Rate (%) 17.4 15.4 13.4 10.4 Bed Occupancy Rate (%) 15.2 11.5 10.4 8.7 Length of Stay (nights) Source: SNV/ATA 50 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.7 4.4 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.7 Guests per Room Guests per Room Guests per Room Guests per Room 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6
  • 51. APPENDIX 10: EXAMPLE DOMESTIC TOURISM SURVEY 1. Definition of a Domestic Tourism Trip A domestic tourism trip is any trip within Albania, of any length, taken by the member of the household being interviewed, as long as it was taken outside of his/her usual environment. The trip could be for any purpose, including holiday, visiting friends and relatives, business, medical purposes, etc. Note that the usual environment of the person being interviewed is defined as the area that is within a 80 km radius of their home or any place they visit four times a month or more. The purpose of the usual environment definition is to exclude from domestic tourism all trips that are within a “reasonable” proximity of the person’s place of residence, and trips to all places they otherwise visit on a regular basis. For example someone living in village 80 km (say) from Tirana cannot consider a trip to Tirana as being a tourism trip. Similarly, if a person who lives in Tirana travels to Korca every weekend, they also should not be considered a domestic tourist, as they regularly visit the place, and it is therefore considered to be within their “usual environment”. These definitions are of paramount importance when measuring domestic tourism and therefore should be properly understood by the interviewers, and explained carefully to the respondent in the household. 2. Methodology The basic questions that are required to measure domestic tourism, in terms of volume and value, are shown below. Note that the implementing team should ensure that these fit within the overall scope and structure of the household survey. 51
  • 52. 3. The Questions 1. In total, how many domestic trips did you take in Albania in the last month? Of these, how many trips did you return home on the same day? (i.e. you did not stay out of home overnight?) And of these, how many trips were overnight trips? Day Trips Overnight Trips Nights Note to interviewer: choose the most recent trip taken for the following questions: 2. What was your main purpose of visit for undertaking this trip? Leisure/Vacation/Holiday Visiting Friends and Relatives Business/Conference Medical Religious Other 3. How many nights were you away from home on this trip? 4. What was your principal destination on this trip? 5. What was the principal mode of transport you used to reach this destination? Air Car 6. What was the principal type of accommodation on this trip (the one you spent the most nights)? Hotel Camping Other Friends/Family 7. I would now like to know about how much you spent on this trip (excluding the package spend) Accommodation Food and Beverages Transport Tour Guides Recreation/Entertainment Shopping Other Services 8. How many people did this expenditure cover? 52 Bus
  • 53. Explanation of questions: 1. Respondents are asked to recall the number of day trips, overnight trips (trips where they spend at least one night away from home) and the total number of nights spent away from home, in the previous month (or a defined period such as the previous 3 months – this needs to be considered based on trip incidence and also how the household survey is implemented). The remaining questions (2 to 8) are related to one specific trip. The most recent trip should chosen as it is the one the respondent is most likely to recall the best. It is important not to choose the longest trip or the most significant trip, otherwise this could skew the sample. 2. The main purpose of visit for the trip can be considered as the purpose that triggered the trip. For example, someone may travel from Tirana to Korca on business, and whilst they are there they may visit family or friends. The main purpose of visit for this trip is “Business” as had it not been for the need to make the business trip, the travellers would not have visited their family. 3. Number of nights away – count the number of nights the respondent was away from their place of residence. 4. Principal Destination for Trip – this is the main destination, and (in the case of them visiting several destinations) can be defined as the place where the respondent spent the longest period of time. 5. Principal mode of transport – it is possible that a number of modes of transport were used on a given trip. The principal mode of transport can be defined as the mode that was used to travel the furthest distance during the trip. 6. Principal type of accommodation – this is defined as the type of accommodation that was used for the most nights during the trips. For example, if a respondent spent three nights in a hotel and one night in a campsite, the principal type of accommodation is “Hotel”. 7. The expenditure on the trip – respondents should be asked their total expenditure, in Lek, on the trip for each of the categories listed in this question. It is highly probable that the respondent will not be able to recall accurately these figures, however they should be able to make good estimates. Prompting them by reminding them about the accommodation they stayed in, the activities they undertook, etc, usually helps. 8. Number of people the expenditure covered – it is important to know how many people were included in the expenditure estimate provided in question 7. If the respondent travelled as a family, their expenditure estimate is likely to include the cost of all persons travelling with them. 53
  • 54. APPENDIX 11: EXAMPLE INBOUND VISITOR SURVEY Visitor Surveys are very specific instruments that should be tailored to each individual country. Consequently there is no “generic” survey that can be utilised around the world. However, in 2003 the World Tourism Organization undertook a study comparing and contrasting visitor surveys in over 30 countries worldwide, and subsequently developed a manual that identified best practice in measuring visitor expenditure. This culminated in a questionnaire that is 33 questions long (although some questions have several parts). Depending on the response to some questions, it is not necessary for the respondent to answer all 33. It is important that the questionnaire should not take more than 15 minutes to complete (it is designed as a face-to-face questionnaire with the interviewer asking the questions), as visitors are often in a hurry and will have limited time. The survey does not contain many “additional” questions – that is, the key questions that derive the more important information from the visitor are included, with few additional marketing questions. Obviously, it is possible to insert additional questions should the relevant authorities require further information about visitors and their activities whilst in Albania. However it should be noted that additional questions will also increase the duration of the interview and therefore should only be added where deemed to be absolutely necessary. It is also absolutely essential that questions that deal with purpose of visit and type of accommodation, for example, correlate with the classifications used elsewhere in the system of tourism statistics in Albania. Therefore, the categories of “purpose of visit” on the Entry/Departure Card should be the same as those used on the Expenditure Survey (and vice versa), likewise for the categories of accommodation used, and so on. This enables the visitor survey data to be correlated to the data gathered from the E/D Cards, which is essential for weighing the survey sample. 54
  • 55. A: TRAVELLERS 1. Survey point: ____________ 2. Departure date: Day / Month / Year 3. Nationality of respondent: ____________ 4. Country of residence of respondent: ____________ A: This country (Albania): B: Other: 5. � - End interview � Are you travelling alone? A: No B: Yes � – Go to question 6 � – Go to question 7 6. How many people, including yourself, are you travelling with? ____ 7. You are going to leave our country… A: By plane B: By sea C: By land � � – Go to question 10 � – Go to question 10 B: MEANS OF TRANSPORT 8. Details of the flight you are taking… A: Private flight B: Commercial flight Airline: Flight number: � � ____________ ____________ 9. Airport of final destination: 10. What means of transport are you using to leave our country? A. B. C. D. E. F. G. Bicycle Motorbike Car Minibus taxi Van Motorhome Car & Caravan ____________ – Go to question 11 Rented vehicle A. Yes B.No � � � � � � � � � � � � � � H. Lorries and other vehicles of commercial use I. Regular bus J. Chartered bus K. Ferry 55 � � � �
  • 56. 11. Are you leaving our country in order to go back to your country of residence? If not, indicate the destination countries, as well as the nights spent in each of them, before reaching your country of residence. A: Yes B: No � – Go to question 12 � Destination country Number of nights 1. ________________________ |____| 2. ________________________ |____| 3. ________________________ |____| 4. ________________________ |____| C: ABOUT YOUR STAY 12. Date of arrival: Day / Month / Year 13. Did you arrive in our country? A: By plane B: By sea C: By land 14. � � - Go to question 15 � - Go to question 15 Details of the flight you arrived in… A: Private flight B: Commercial flight Airline: Flight Number: 15. � � ____________ ____________ Did you arrive from your country of residence? If not indicate the countries, as well as the nights spent in each of them, before reaching our country. A: Yes B: No � – Go to question 16 � Destination country Number of nights 1. ________________________ |____| 2. ________________________ |____| 3. ________________________ |____| 4. ________________________ |____| 56
  • 57. 16. Number of nights spent in our country A: None (I am in transit to/from other countries) B: None (I am just visiting your country for one day) C: One or more nights Number of nights: |____| – Go to question 20 17. � - Go to Qn 24 � - Go to Qn 17 � Reasons for your one-day visit to our country (several answers possible) A. Holidays, Leisure, recreation A.1 Holidays A.2 Leisure/recreation A.3 Sport event A.4 Cultural event A.5 Outdoor activities A.6 Honeymoon A.7 Visiting second residence A.8 Shopping �1 �2 �3 �4 �5 �6 �7 �8 B. Visiting friends and/or family �9 C. Business C.10 C.11 C.12 C.13 C.14 C.15 C.16. C.17 C.18 C.19 � 10 � 11 � 12 � 13 � 14 � 15 � 16 � 17 � 18 � 19 Business/meeting Study (for work/business) Trade fair/exhibition Sport (professional) Transport Conference Official Mission Crew members Seasonal workers Other reasons D: Other purposes D.20 Medical/health treatment D.21 Religion/pilgrimages D:22 Study/educational D.23 Other reasons � 20 � 21 � 22 � 23 18. Code of the main reason of your one-day visit: |____| 19. Visit frequency A. Every day B. Once a week C. Once a month D. Quarterly E. Twice a year F. Once a year G. Less frequently � � � � � � � Go to question 23 57
  • 58. 20. Reasons for your overnight visit to our country (several answers possible) A. Holidays, Leisure, recreation A.1 Holidays A.2 Leisure/recreation A.3 Sport event A.4 Cultural event A.5 Outdoor activities A.6 Honeymoon A.7 Visiting second residence A.8 Shopping �1 �2 �3 �4 �5 �6 �7 �8 B. Visiting friends and/or family �9 C. Business C.10 C.11 C.12 C.13 C.14 C.15 C.16. C.17 C.18 C.19 � 10 � 11 � 12 � 13 � 14 � 15 � 16 � 17 � 18 � 19 Business/meeting Study (for work/business) Trade fair/exhibition Sport (professional) Transport Conference Official Mission Crew members Seasonal workers Other reasons D: Other purposes D.20 Medical/health treatment D.21 Religion/pilgrimages D:22 Study/educational D.23 Transit/stopover D.24 Other reasons � 20 � 21 � 22 � 23 � 24 21. Code of the main reason of your overnight visit: |____| 22. Place in which you have stayed overnight and number of nights in each according to the type of accommodation… Place Hotel/ Motel Guest House Lodge 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Total 58 Apartments Private house Own Reside nce Total Nights
  • 59. 23. Which of the following activities have you taken part in or spent time doing in our country? (Several answers possible) 1. Professional activities 2. Visiting friends/relatives 3. Attend cultural event 4. Attend festival/fair 5. Attend sport event 6. Sightseeing 7. Visiting small towns/villages 8. Visiting museums/memorials 9. Visiting cultural/historic sites 10. Visiting church 11. Other activities 15.1 Going to a lake 15.2 Hunting/fishing 15.3 Hiking/trekking 15.4 Canoeing/rafting 15.5 Other watersports 15.5 Golf/tennis 15.6 Mountain biking 15.7 Other � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � D: TRIP/VISIT ORGANISATION & EXPENDITURE BEFORE LEAVING YOUR COUNTRY OF RESIDENCE. I now want you to tell me about the total expenditure on this trip. 24. The information concerning expenditure will refer to… A. You alone B. The group you are travelling with Group size: ____________ 25. Are you travelling on a package tour? A. No B. Yes 26. � - Go to question 32 � Price paid in your country of residence for the package tour… A. Unknown � B. Known � Amount: |________| 27. Currency: |________| Does it include round trip transportation? A. No B. Yes 28. � - Go to question 25 � � � - Go to question 29 Does it include one-way travel? A. No B. Yes � � 59
  • 60. 29. Does it include transportation within our country? A. No B. Yes 30. � � Does it include accommodation? A. Yes A.1 A.2 A.3 A.4 B. No 31. � Full board Half board Bed and breakfast Only lodging � � � � � Does it include other services such as… Yes � � � � 1. Tour escort for entire trip 2. Commercial guided tours 3. Car rental 4. Other services No � � � � - Go to question 33 32. Did you spend any money in your own country related to this trip? (e.g. transportation, accommodation, car rental, others) A. No B. Yes � - Go to question 33 Amount: |________| Currency: |________| Indicate whether this payment was made direct [D], or through an intermediary,[I], ie tour operator or travel agent |________| 32.1 Were passenger transport services included in the expenditure given in Question 32? A. No B. Yes � - Go to question 32.2 Amount: |________| Currency: |________| 32.1.1 To enter or to leave our country? A. No B. Yes � - Go to question 32.1.2 Amount: |________| Currency: |________| 32.1.2 Within our country? A. No B. Yes � - Go to question 32.2 Amount: |________| 60 Currency: |________|
  • 61. 32.2 Where accommodation services included in the expenditure given in question 31? A. No B. Yes 32.3 � - Go to question 32.3 B.1 Full board B.2 Half board B.3 Bed and breakfast B.4 Only lodging Amount: |________| � � � � Currency: |________| Were other services (for instance car rental, food and beverage, tourist guide, recreation services) included in the expenditure given in question 32? A. No B. Yes � - Go to question 33 Amount: |________| Currency: |________| E: EXPENDITURE IN ALBANIA 33. Did you spend any money in our country related to this trip? (E.g. transportation, accommodation, car rental, others) A. No B. Yes 33.1 � - END: Thank respondent for their cooperation Amount: |________| Currency: |________| Were passenger transport services included in the expenditure given in Question 33? A. No B. Yes � - Go to question 33.2 Amount: |________| Currency: |________| 33.1.1 To leave our country? A. No B. Yes � - Go to question 33.1.2 Amount: |________| Currency: |________| 33.1.2 Within our country? A. No B. Yes 33.2 � - Go to question 32.2 Amount: |________| Currency: |________| Where accommodation services included in the expenditure given in question 33? A. No B. Yes � - Go to question 33.3 B.1 Full board B.2 Half board B.3 Bed and breakfast B.4 Only lodging Amount: |________| 61 � � � � Currency: |________|
  • 62. 33.3 Were other services (for instance car rental, food and beverage, tourist guide, recreation services) included in the expenditure given in question 32? A. No � - END: Thank respondent for their cooperation B. Yes Amount: |________| Currency: |________| END: Thank respondent for their cooperation 62