Dr. Jeff French: How to Design and Deliver Social Programs that Influence Behaviour


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Dr. Jeff French: How to Design and Deliver Social Programs that Influence Behaviour
Keynote Session
Presented at the New Horizons in Responsible Gambling Conference in Vancouver, January 27-29, 2014

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Dr. Jeff French: How to Design and Deliver Social Programs that Influence Behaviour

  1. 1. Professor Jeff French What we know about how to design and deliver Social Programmes that influence behaviour.
  2. 2. Who am I ? Biologist Educator Public Health Specialist Civil Servant Entrepreneur Academic Writer Consultant Social Policy & Programme Engineer
  3. 3. 3 Big Messages We Know a lot about how to: 1. Help people behave in individual and socially responsible ways 2. Design successful social interventions 3. We have a professional and personal responsibility to apply this understanding and add to it.
  4. 4. Content 1. Why social programmes influencing social behaviour need to be more sophisticated. 2. What we know about influencing behaviour. 3. Social Marketing and efficient Social Programme design. 4. Developing programmes for minimising harm and protecting people with potential gambling problems.
  5. 5. ANTI-TED
  6. 6. Its Complex but not Complicated
  7. 7. Future success will come from: Systemic and evidence based Citizen focused programmes informed by Social Marketing Principles
  8. 8. Why Social Programmes influencing social behaviour need to be more sophisticated
  9. 9. Our world is changing fast
  10. 10. Better use of public funds Serve the people better Stephen Harper David Cameron
  11. 11. The big frustrating questions for Donors and Governments • What is the impact of the funds we invest? • What is the ROI? • What have we learnt?
  12. 12. "Less than $1 out of every $100 of government spending is backed by even the most basic evidence that the money is being spent wisely." John Bridgeland and Peter Orszag, The Atlantic 2013. http://www.cochrane.org/ http://www.campbellcollaboration.org/
  13. 13. The wicked economic and social drag factors: Health / Physical & Mental Chronic & Acute Disease Information Asymmetry Degradation of Social Capital Environmental change Water access Poverty Inequality Discrimination
  14. 14. Big complex messy societal challenges alcohol climate change recycling theft accidents violence inequality poverty obesity Pollution HIV / Aids drug use smoking Problem Gambling sexual health
  15. 15. From Poor and Sick to Rich and Healthy in 200 years
  16. 16. Professor Hans Rosling Karolinska Institute GAPMINDER http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$ma jorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;f s=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C $ts;sp=5.59290322580644;ti=2012$zpv;v= 0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAV uyj1jiMAkmq1iMg;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=Y COORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj2tPLxKvvnNP A;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwc NAVuyj0XOoBL_n5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uni Value=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;sc ale=log;dataMin=283;dataMax=110808$ map_y;scale=lin;dataMin=18;dataMax=8 7$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds =i37_t001800,,,,;modified=75
  17. 17. What do you think the life expectancy in the world as a whole is today ? 40 years 50 Years 60 Years 70 Years Correct answer 70 Years
  18. 18. What percentage of adults in the world today are literate? 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Correct answer 80%
  19. 19. The number of children who die before they reach five has been cut by half over the last 20 years From 12 million in 1990 – 7.6 million in 2010. Proof that investment has paid off. Unicef Annual report 2011
  20. 20. We should be optimistic Positive Change is Possible
  21. 21. Do what I say I am the boss NO!
  22. 22. The rise of the Demanding Sceptical Citizen/Consumer John Clarke et al Pine Forest Press 2007
  23. 23. Put your hands up generation LX you are the ‘Charmed Generation’ Typically, people born between 1950 and 1970 You want it how you want it
  24. 24. Citizens want to be part of the solution. They are saying to us: I do not believe you I am in control I do not help me now, trust you solve the Listen to me problems
  25. 25. Demanding Citizens •Co-production •Co- design •Co-delivery •Social media marketing •Viral marketing •Permission Marketing •Prosumers •Joint value creation •Relationship Marketing •Etc:
  26. 26. We are not all the same Which shape and colour best represents the way you work?
  27. 27. “It’s not about telling and selling. It’s about bringing a relationship mind set to everything we do” Jim Stengel Global Marketing Chief Proctor & Gambel 2009)
  28. 28. Jeff Welcome to Your Amazon.com™ (If you're not Jeff French, click here.)
  29. 29. MICHAEL SANDEL NEW CITIZENSHIP A new politics of the common good more scrupulous politicians more demanding idea of what it means to be a citizen
  30. 30. Trust in Civic Institutions is Falling
  31. 31. Generally trusted to tell the truth?
  32. 32. Can I read your mind? I will mind read your card and remove it!
  33. 33. Government should ban… MANDATORY LEG. Tend to support/strongly support Saudi Arabia India Indonesia China Russia Turkey Mexico Italy South Korea Poland Argentina Brazil Japan South Africa Hungary Canada Spain Australia France Belgium Germany Great Britain Sweden USA 33% 75% 72% 69% 68% 66% 64% 63% 63% 62% 60% 56% 53% 53% 52% 52% 51% 49% 49% 43% Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country, November 2010 87% 87% 86% 84% Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
  34. 34. Strategic Social Marketing Government should make it more expensive/more difficult… OPTIONAL LEG. % Tend to support/strongly support (average over all four policy areas) China India Indonesia S Arabia Turkey Russia South Korea Brazil Mexico Poland Argentina Italy South Africa Hungary Japan Canada Belgium Spain Australia Great Sweden France Germany USA 46% 72% 71% 70% 70% 70% 68% 68% 67% 67% 64% 63% 62% 62% 61% 60% 59% 55% 88% 87% 86% 82% 79% 78% Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country, November 2010
  35. 35. Strategic Social Marketing Government should provide incentives… INCENTIVES Tend to support/strongly support China Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Mexico Turkey India Indonesia Poland Brazil Hungary Argentina Australia Italy South Korea Canada Spain Belgium Great Britain Germany France Japan United States Sweden Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country, November 2010 Average over all four policy areas 95% 94% 93% 92% 92% 91% 91% 90% 90% 89% 88% 88% 88% 87% 87% 86% 84% 83% 82% 80% 80% 78% 74% 73% Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
  36. 36. The wealthier the nation the less likely they are to favour coercive government intervention The government should make the behaviour more difficult/more expensive (optional legislation) Strongly support/tend to support 90% China India R2 = 0.703 Indonesia 85% Saudi Arabia Turkey 80% Russia 75% Brazil 70% South Korea Mexico Argentina South Africa 65% Poland Italy Japan Hungary Spain Belgium Canada Sweden Australia United France Kingdom 60% 55% Germany 50% United States 45% 40% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 GDP per capita (PPP) (current int'l $) Ipsos Global @dvisor; World Bank 2009 Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country, November 2010
  37. 37. • Datafication • Correlation not Causation • N = All
  38. 38. Well at least things are OK in Canada!
  39. 39. The Power of Social Communication • • • • • • Salience Priming Familiarity Trust building Low attention processing Emotion and physical association
  40. 40. Is your card missing? When I show the deck put up your hand if I have removed your card
  41. 41. People get distracted and they forget!
  42. 42. Wrong question: How do we tell people what to do?
  43. 43. S.A.P. Spray And Pray
  44. 44. S.P.L.A.T. Some Posters Leaflets App’s & TV (Thanks Alan Tapp and Co)
  45. 45. Knowledge Attitudes Behaviour
  46. 46. Features of many social programmes 1. Short term 2. High cost 3. Crude understanding of behaviour change 4. Focused on cure not prevention 5. Poor co-ordination 6. Poor evaluation
  47. 47. Evidence informed Policy? Evidence and Insight Policy The reality is slightly different Policy with evidence Policy in search of evidence Policy counter to the evidence Evidence in search of policy Eminence based policy Policy in search of a headline
  48. 48. Politicians role: Evidence and Insight Policy 1. Reflect public opinion 2. Develop and promote policy 3. Champion effective and efficient interventions and stamp out the rubbish
  49. 49. What does good social policy look like?
  50. 50. Effective Policymaking involves: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Evidence based or informed. Informed by citizen insight. Informed by behavioural science. Designing policies around outcomes. Strategic & Operational focus. Embedded learning systems. Stakeholders involved.
  51. 51. The Building Blocks of Citizen Centric Policy Use citizen understanding and assets to deliver outcomes Build operations around the citizen Understand the citizen Engage Citizens
  52. 52. Social Policy: 1. Insist that evidence based approaches are used in all programmes 2. Develop systemic sustained relentless strategy 3. Help build the evidence base. Commission RCT’s 4. Actively build & contribute to social coalitions
  53. 53. When to use SMART Objectives and when to run a RCT RCT SMART OBJECTIVES AND PRESCRIBED Rational SYSTEMS AUDIT decisions Judgmental decisions Source: Stacey RD. Strategic management and organisational dynamics: the challenge of complexity. 3rd ed. Harlow: Prentice Hall, 2002.
  54. 54. Measurement Culture Performance Culture
  55. 55. What we know about how to influence behaviour.
  56. 56. Trust me I am a Biologist! KIKI BOOBA
  57. 57. The weaknesses of Classical economics & Neo-classical economics Rational Choice Theory Maximising utility Homo economicus ‘Rational Economic Man’ & Woman!) Adam Smith 1776 Francois Quesnay Humans : rational self-interested actors Jean-Baptiste Say David Richardo Thomas Robert Malthus John Stuart Mill
  58. 58. . Neuroscience . Evolutionary Psychology . Behavioural Economics . Psychology . Anthropology . Social Geography . Etc…….
  59. 59. 95% of decision making happens in our unconscious
  60. 60. Thinking Fast and Slow The 2 systems 1 Automatic Uncontrolled Effortless Intuitive Associative Fast Unconscious Skilled Emotional Hot 2 Reflective Controlled Effortful Knowledge driven Deductive Slow Conscious Rule following Rational Cold
  61. 61. The neural tug of war 1 2
  62. 62. Mindless Choosing Brian Wansink Cornell University
  63. 63. Fear of Loss (Prospect theory) We are overly optimistic We over value small, sure, short term gains We underestimate uncertain long term losses We are very loss averse Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist won the Nobel Prize for pointing out that economic choices are not so rational
  64. 64. Making it Easy is grabbing the attention of Policy Makers
  65. 65. Nudges can be characterised as: • Positive or only minor penalties • Avoidable • Passive, and easy, i.e. require little effort • Low cost, to both the person and to the organisation utilizing them
  67. 67. But we can also make it Hard We can also influence Rational Thinking As well as Mindless Choosing
  68. 68. Nudge + Hug Shove Smack
  69. 69. The value/cost exchange matrix© $ Primary Forms of intervention Active Decision eg: a coffee for taking a rest eg: A Fine Conscious / Considered Hug Smack Incentive Disincentive Nudge eg: A default saving scheme Shove Automatic / Unconscious Passive Decision e.g.: Carbon Tax
  70. 70. minhajameen@gmail.com
  71. 71. Types and Forms of Behavioural Influence
  72. 72. de-CIDES influencing behaviour framework© 5 Types of Intervention Control Rules Requirements Monitoring Enforcement Police Regulate Legislate Treat Screen Incentives Dis-incentivise, Inform Communicate Advise Make aware Remind Design Physical environment Systems, Policy, Service Technology Products Highlight Trigger Signal Motivate Inspire Critical consciousness Build skills (analytical & practical) Teach Educate Engage Mobilise Support Assist Provide service Care Support Advice Advocate Nurture
  73. 73. de-CIDES influencing behaviour framework 5 Types of policy intervention Default Preference Control Inform Design Educate Support
  74. 74. The value/cost exchange matrix© $ Primary Forms of intervention Active Decision Conscious / Considered Hug Smack Incentive Disincentive Nudge Shove Automatic / Unconscious Passive Decision
  75. 75. Hug Control Inform Design Educate Support Smack Shove Nudge Default Policy Driven by evidence, data, Preference A neutral stance toethical of insight and selection appropriate mix considerations
  76. 76. What we know: We need a full mix of interventions
  77. 77. Making it Hard Shove Smack
  78. 78. Strategic Social Marketing Shove Control
  79. 79. Shove Design
  80. 80. Minimum price Using Price Signals Shove Control 50p per unit Nicola Sturgeon Scotland's health secretary,
  81. 81. Control Shove This is an actual speed control device that is currently in use. It is MUCH cheaper than speed cameras, radar guns, police officers,
  82. 82. Smack Inform
  83. 83. Gold coast public toilet Design Shove
  84. 84. Smack Control New York Bans the sale of more than 16 ounce soft drinks
  85. 85. People need to agree and support restrictions and penalties Taxi driver avoids a ‘Shove’ in Ankara May 2013
  86. 86. Making it Easy Nudge
  87. 87. Design can help shift Social Norms
  88. 88. Product Size and Positioning Less can be more Nudge Design
  89. 89. Creating supportive environments Nudge Design
  90. 90. Move the veg to Rename the food the start of the line e.g. ‘Farm fresh fruit’ Hide the ice cream. Close the lid Use glass fruit bowls Spray water on not salad stainless steel Pay cash for desert not Accept cards Move salad bar to the center of canteen Nudge Design Make an express checkout for healthy products
  91. 91. Design Nudge
  92. 92. Making it Desirable
  93. 93. http://www.captive-media.co.uk/ Nudge Design
  94. 94. Conditional Cash Payments Argentina $53 month received by the families of more than 3.6 million children, conditional on school attendance and keeping up to date with vaccines and health check- up’s. Hug Support
  95. 95. Hug Control
  96. 96. Rest and Revive Queensland Bruce Highway Hug Support
  97. 97. The target audience? Hug Inform
  98. 98. Support Hug Flip-flops & lollipops
  99. 99. Social Marketing and Social Programme design.
  100. 100. Marketing Mindset: Use data, evidence and insight to create policy, systems, environments, products and services that make the healthy choice the Easy and Desired and Valued choice
  101. 101. The New Civic Relationship Professional led Selling / telling Awareness Adult – Child One-off / transitory Deficit Operational focus Whole population Control Central command Compartmentalise Tell Sell and Control Consumer led Marketing / relationships Behaviour Adult - Adult Sustained Asset Strategic focus Segmented audiences Empower Networked leadership Whole system Social Marketing
  102. 102. The Social Marketing Customer Triangle Behaviour Behaviour Theory & Behavioural Goals INSIGHT Customer Method Mix Intervention mix & Marketing mix Audience Segmentation French & Blair Stevens 2006
  103. 103. Social Marketing is a systematic planned Process www.stelamodel.com Scope The rationale Situation Analysis Target Audience Profile Intervention proposition Initial marketing objectives Test Marketing intervention Mix Strategies Pre testing and piloting Report on the pilot programme Full business plan setting out Enact Time frame and key mile stones Resources allocation Stakeholder and partner management Evaluation and monitoring Learn & Act Reporting Review and build on learning
  104. 104. Strategic Social Marketing Tactics Operations Operational Social Marketing Policy Strategy
  105. 105. Social Marketing Works! 1000’s of social marketing programmes have demonstrated effectiveness
  106. 106. CDC on Social Marketing: Health Communication Campaigns Review April 2011 • Median increase of 8.4% in the proportion of people who engaged in a healthy behaviour. • Overall, results were consistently favourable "Combining product distribution with health communication campaigns results in greater behaviour change than using health communication campaign alone."
  107. 107. Developing programmes for minimising harm and protecting people from potential gambling problems
  108. 108. People have always gambled and always will. Two key questions are: 1. How to maximise the fun and minimize the potential harm? 2. How to use income for the best social impact?
  109. 109. Nathan Coley
  110. 110. Why do some people get harmed by gambling? It’s simple, It’s because of : Non-linear probability weighting, projection bias, prospect theory and temporal discounting!
  111. 111. “We are weak-willed Luckily, the and lacking in self- history of the control, rendered dociledefined by human race is in the face of the its ability to invent stuff unconscious cognitive processes, bolsters its feeble social that dynamics and external capabilities contextual cues” Steve Johnson The Guardian on line, http://www.theguardian.com/sustainablebusiness/behavioural-insights/true-potential-technology-change-behaviour
  112. 112. 1.Rapid Cognition 1.Mindless Choosing 2.Status Quo Bias 3.Ego Depletion 4.Decision fatigue 2.Loss & Gain 1.Consistency 2.Temporal discounting 3.Anchoring • 3. Feedback 1.Incentives 2.disincentives 4. Trust 1. Authority 2.Liking 5. Framing 1.Computation 2.Salience 3. Priming 4.Low attention processing 6. Social Norms 1.Reciprocity 2.Value attribution
  113. 113. Segment people who gamble 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Happy and in control gambler Occasional gambler Habitual gambler Problem gamblers At risk gamblers Pathological gamblers Minor Problem gambler Big problem gambler Physically ill gambler Mentally ill gambler Ethnicity / culture factors Male gamblers Female gamblers Children gamblers Young adult gamblers Mature adult gamblers Older adult gamblers Rich gamblers Poor gamblers Poly addiction gamblers
  114. 114. Designing effective interventions 1. Formal preventive life skills education about gambling. 2. Self directed education about gambling and responsible gambling promotions 3. Design safer gambling environments, systems and processes that reflect human decision making
  115. 115. 4. Build in and provide cut-off options plus cooling off / reflection points /self exclusion 5. Restrictions on promotions with special emphasis on vulnerable groups 6. Easy access to help and support including outreach and community support
  116. 116. Developing effective gambling programmes 1. Develop strategy and hard objectives and report on progress 2. Use a full mix of interventions based on data, insight, evidence and ethics 3. Develop segmented programmes 4. Invest and evaluate, add to the knowledge and evidence base
  117. 117. The UBC Centre for Gambling Research • A $2-million investment from the British Columbia Lottery Corporation (BCLC) and the Government of B.C. will create a major new Centre for Gambling Research at the University of British Columbia to advance our understanding of gambling psychology and help reduce problem gambling behaviours. • The UBC Centre for Gambling Research will be one of a handful of its kind internationally.
  118. 118. Summary:
  119. 119. Future success will come from: Systemic and evidence based Citizen focused programmes informed by Social Marketing Principles
  120. 120. More focus on understanding the people we are trying to help
  121. 121. Citizens need to Demand Engagement in the: • Selection • Development • Implementation • Evaluation • Learning of all programmes
  122. 122. Gambling interventions that work with both types of cognition 1 2
  123. 123. The value/cost exchange matrix© $ Primary Forms of intervention Active Decision Conscious / Considered Hug Smack Incentive Disincentive Nudge Shove Automatic / Unconscious Passive Decision
  124. 124. Social Policy: 1. Insist that evidence based approaches are used in all programmes 2. Develop systemic sustained relentless strategy 3. Help build the evidence base. Commission RCT’s 4. Actively build & contribute to social coalitions
  125. 125. We can deliver significant social improvement if we model and apply what we know works and stop doing what we know doe’s not work. does
  126. 126. We have the opportunity to be at the cutting edge of science and evidence driven social policy intervention design. Please accept this challenge!
  127. 127. Many Thanks and Good Luck Jeff French Twitter.com/jefffrenchSSM