A 61 million-person experiment in social influence and political
A 61-million-person experiment insocial influence and politicalmobilizationRobert M. Bond, Christopher J. Fariss, Janson J.Jones, Jaime E. Settle and James H. FowlerUCSDAdam D. I. Kramer and Cameron MarlowFacebook
Main Results• Some context ▫ US midterm elections 36.3% (2002) to 37.2% (2006) To 37.8% (2010) ▫ 60,000 voters (d) ▫ 280,000 voters (i) ▫ 0.14% of 236M in 2010
Main Results• Claims ▫ Online political mobilization works. ▫ Generate real validate votes. Contradict previous research. ▫ Social mobilization is significantly effective than informational mobilization alone. ▫ Close friends have about four times more influence. ▫ Online social networks influence offline behaviors.
Technical Details• Matching to Voting Records ▫ First names + last Names + full birthdates ▫ Cost $0 -> $1500 per state ▫ Exclude Texas ▫ Include Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island ▫ 40% of all registered votes -> 6,338,882 voters and abstainers.
Technical Details• Matching to Voting Records (cont.) ▫ 1/3 matched. ▫ Name conventions.
Technical Details• Overreporting and Underreporting ▫ 3.8% self-reported -> abstained ▫ 50.1% declined to report -> voted• Social message vs. informational message ▫ 0.99% more likely to overreport to voting ▫ 4.19% less likely to underreport voting
Technical Details• Determination of “Close” Friends ▫ Media multiplexity ▫ # interactions of f/ total # of interactions with all ▫ Divide by decile. ▫ Each decile is a subset of the previous one. ▫ Validated via survey.
Technical Details• Network permutation ▫ Keep the network topology fixed ▫ Randomly permute the assignment to treatment ▫ Repeat 1,000 times ▫ Theoretical null distribution