Short URLs, Big Fun

Short URLs, Big Fun:Understanding the World in Realtime Hilary Mason Chief Scientist, bitly @hmason h@bit.ly

http://www.pcworld.com/article/223409/move_over_dr_soong_girls_can_build_android_apps_too.html http://bit.ly/hOnbWg

[fireplace]

How do we change the world?

Can we understand the world, first?

Big Data

10s of millions of URLs per day100s of millions of clicks per day10s of billions of URLs

encodes{"g": "zalAU0", "i": "173.213.X.X","h": "zalAU0","l": "bitly","u": "http://www.amazon.com/Country-Life-Cal-Mag-Potassium-Target-Tablets/dp/B0001VUZ3A?SubscriptionId=AKIAJGA7AAB6QE7WENSQ&tag=mycellrevi-20&linkCode=sp1&camp=2025&creative=165953&creativeASIN=B0001VUZ3A", "t": 1328266799,"_id": "4f2bbe2f-0035d-063a1-3d1cf10a"}

decode{"a": "Mozilla/5.0 (compatible; MSIE 9.0; Windows NT 6.1; WOW64; Trident/5.0)","c": "US","nk": 1,"tz": "America/New_York","gr": "NY","g": "xNaZ9h","i": "98.118.X.X","h": "wXxuKW","k": "4eefe4be-003e4-X-X","l": "moma","al": "en-US", "hh":"bit.ly","r":"http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2FwXxuKW&h=rAQG_ZZ2GAQGQth1IOej-9_KHmbpEvh6FlllZjsAqg6A7Rw","u": "http://www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2012/02/02/jackson-pollock-father-letter/","t": 1328272481,"hc": 1328232072,"cy": "East Amherst","ll": [43.044101715087891, -78.694900512695312]}

a link• URL• Content• Ref distribution• Geo distribution• Language• Key phrases• Topic

Data Science?Analytics Science

Data Science?Things you can Things youjust count. can’t.

Data scientists? engineering math nerds nerds nerds nerdscomp sci hacking awesome nerds

bitly science team!

What can we learn from a lot of people talking to each other?

A few things that we can count...

How do people use different devices?

What happens on the internet when society isn’t stable?

Revolution.

(Silly Things on the Internet)

the cutest kitten

A few things that we can count... cleverly.

What spoken languages are in a page?

raw data"es""en-us,en;q=0.5""pt-BR,pt;q=0.8,en-US;q=0.6,en;q=0.4""en-gb,en;q=0.5""en-US,en;q=0.5""es-es,es;q=0.8,en-us;q=0.5,en;q=0.3”"de, en-gb;q=0.9, en;q=0.8"

entropy calculationdef ghash2lang(g, Ri, min_count=3, max_entropy=0.2): ""” returns the majority vote of a langauge for a given hash ""” lang = R.zrevrange(g,0,0)[0] # lets calculate the entropy! # possible languages x = R.zrange(g,0,-1) # distribution over those languages p = np.array([R.zscore(g,langi) for langi in x]) p /= p.sum() # info content I = [pi*np.log(pi) for pi in p] # entropy: smaller the more certain we are! - i.e. the lower our surprise H = -sum(I)/len(I) #in nats! # note that this will give a perfect zero for a single count in one language # or for 5K counts in one language. So we also need the count.. count = R.zscore(g,lang) if count < min_count and H > max_entropy: return lang, count else: return None, 1

http://4sq.com/96kc1O

What’s the context around a link?

[demo]

Things we have to think about. (science)

What’s a human?

normal click distributions

abnormal click distributions

Organic vs Inorganic?

AT SCALE

1. Research offline2. Do fancy math – find the shortcuts3. Design infrastructure4. Re-design to run at scale and speed

Realtime Search

Realtime SearchAttributes calculated either at index time orquery time.Rankings can vary by second.

[demo]

What are people payingattention to right now?

actual rate of clicks on phrasesvsexpected rate of clicks on phrases

DragoneyeWe calculate clickrate with a sort of movingaverage: where

DragoneyeWe represent as a sum of delta spikes.This simplifies to:

DragoneyeChoosing is important.It must be interpretable, and smooth (but nottoo smooth).We use a distribution for that is a functionthat sums to 1. The function is 0 at theorigin.

[demo]

philosophy

simple math > fancy math

How do we knowwhen we’ve won?

How do we communicate what we’ve learned effectively?

Ask the crazy questions.

Thank you!h@bit.ly@hmason

http://contents.ewha.ac.kr	10
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Short URLs, Big Fun

by Hilary Mason

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