Gta condo market bubble that didn't burst

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Barry Lyon of N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited made this presentation to the Condo Network Toronto. http://www.nblc.com/

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Gta condo market bubble that didn't burst

  1. 1. 2010: The Bubble That Didn’t Burst. A Review of the Greater Toronto Area Condominium Apartment Market Presentation to the Toronto Condo Network By: N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell February 18th, 2011 High-Rise Marketplace Yearly New Sales and Resales Greater Toronto Area 2002 to 2011 50,000 45,000 New Sales 40,000 Resales 35,000 30,000 # Units 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011FSource: RealNet Canada Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board, Market Watch and NBLC New High-Rise Market Annual Sales and 2009 Forecasts Greater Toronto Area: 2002 to 2011 25,000 22,417 20,349 20,000 17,437 17,098 16,500 Total Sales - Units 15,346 14,891 15,627 15,000 13,480 11,693 10,000 5,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011FSource: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  2. 2. New High-Rise Market Unsold Inventory and High-Rise Site Count Greater Toronto Area 2005 to 2010 25,000 400 High Rise Inventory 350 High Rise Site Count 20,000 Unsold Inventory (# of Units) 300 High-Rise Site Count 250 15,000 200 10,000 150 100 5,000 50 0 0Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLCSource: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  3. 3. High-Rise Market New Sale and Resale Monthly Sales and Average Pricing Greater Toronto Area: 2005 to 2010 $500,000 4,000 New $450,000 Resale 3,500 New Sale $400,000 Resale 3,000 $350,000 Total Sales (# Units) Average Sale Price 2,500 $300,000 $250,000 2,000 $200,000 1,500 $150,000 1,000 $100,000 500 $50,000 $0 0 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10Source: Toronto Real Estate Board, Market Watch, RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC Income Required to Purchase a New or Resale Condo Greater Toronto Area: 2004-2012Source: Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation, Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate Board, RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  4. 4. Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLCSource: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  5. 5. Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLCSource: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  6. 6. Downtown East Market vs. Downtown West MarketSource: NBLC and DMTI Spatial CanMapsSource: NBLC and DMTI Spatial CanMap N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  7. 7. East Toronto vs West Toronto New High-Rise Average Building Heights 60 52 50 44 40 38 Storeys 30 30 26 24 23 22 20 13 13 11 11 10 0Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLCSource: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  8. 8. The High-Rise Marketplace: What’s Ahead? Daniels Corporation 4-Storey Wood-frame: (Winston Churchill Boulevard and Eglinton Avenue) N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  9. 9. A New Regent Park – Including Aquatic Centre N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  10. 10. Pan Am Athlete’s Village – 2,100 units, West Don Lands, Spring 2015Toronto Transit City – Do or Die? N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  11. 11. A New Union Station to Double Current Capacity Now Coming N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com
  12. 12. Sugar Beach, East BayfrontSherbourne Common N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2 (416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

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