Oesis West 2014

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  • Thanks for opportunity VICE Chancellor DaviesProfessors Howard Liu Brief bio / personal trajectory Dialogue
  • Unbundling Disaggregation Results of convergence of financial, demographic, technological, etc forces Recently referenced A Path Forward Game-Changing Reforms in Higher Education and the Implications for Business and Financing Models David Bergenron, Center for American Progress 1965 – Higher Education Act – Lyndon Johnson enshrined 30 week academic calendarGEDFinancial Aid formulasAcademic workload on 12 credit scale MP Staton among others, writing about current shift away from bundled, woven, systems
  • Things that thought looked a certain way, are now different both in appearance and in experience.
  • Traditional, established, proven, roles of universities are not disappearing, but are migrating away from centralized institutional control Learner / consumer driven (akin to music, social relations, shopping etc)
  • Will the current proliferation and adaption of new LMS platforms lead to deeper and sustained learning? Or As a consumer / developer of systems, what should be considered?
  • Where is teaching and learning in all of this? Robot classrooms? What is the new classroom? Teacher? Student? Is it a simple flip?
  • We are data crazedBig Data dominated from ….. to Edward Snowden. What is educational big data? How will it harvested, used? Can we see the road through our dashboard? My Austin texas cab driver
  • Are our existing ID models adequate to the task? Have our toolsets, platforms, and systems outpaced our ability to create and deliver a compelling, sticky learning experience? Are we wedded to land based design, when we need screen based definitions?
  • Will the current proliferation and adaption of new LMS platforms lead to deeper and sustained learning? Or As a consumer / developer of systems, what should be considered?
  • Increasing differentiationLegacy systems – Bb. D2L, MoodleArrival of Open Source Arrival of MOOC, assessment driven platforms SaaS concept
  • MOOC ecosystem circa 2012 – 2013 – rapid growth, investment, attention
  • Gartner hype cycle Classic tech trigger – where would MOOCs and related tech triggers be? What has been learned?
  • Unbundling Disaggregation Results of convergence of financial, demographic, technological, etc forces Recently referenced A Path Forward Game-Changing Reforms in Higher Education and the Implications for Business and Financing Models David Bergenron, Center for American Progress 1965 – Higher Education Act – Lyndon Johnson enshrined 30 week academic calendarGEDFinancial Aid formulasAcademic workload on 12 credit scale MP Staton among others, writing about current shift away from bundled, woven, systems
  • http://gsvadvisors.com/wordpress/wp-content/themes/gsvadvisors/GSV%20Advisors_Fall%20of%20the%20Wall_2012-06-28.pdf
  • Out of this, unavoidable and expected shifts Away from singular product definition and deployment, and towards more nuanced, user experience driven matrix Much heralded and of the LMS is premature. CANVAS enterprise-level, open source and cloud-native LMS that doesn’t take six months to integrate, avoids Flash, while offering mobile support, analytics, integration with popular apps, speed grading, a “guaranteed uptime Service Agreement,” hands-free updates and giving developers a set of APIs and scalable server capacity — for in-person and online courses.Canvas Network
  • Where is teaching and learning in all of this? Robot classrooms? What is the new classroom? Teacher? Student? Is it a simple flip?
  • The challenge of improving the classroom We’ve all been there, so we’re all experts. What if…… Popular conceptions of the future of teaching, but from the past 1910 – Meat Grinder Classroom Passive, centralized, equal (within), measurable, reliable
  • 1958 Flipped Classroom Mechanical tabulations“gearing” , advance based on abilities – sounds like personalized learning Machine driven attendance
  • 1968 Compressed speech Speed and ‘BETTER’
  • 2012 – New coin of the realm is the flipped classroom or blended learning. Important to recall that the concept derived from CO hs teachers and not Kahn, remains largely untested. Reduce costsImprove retention? Lower attrition?
  • Discussion has been going on for some time BEFORE Kahn Academy
  • Add CT notes OLI / Stanford
  • Popular You tube channel – will it blend? Absolute requirement to assess and plan for faculty development and support in any flipped or blended effortIdentify instructional goals alongside operational goalsAnticipate hidden costs of production, deployment, researchIdentify core research agenda. Why do this?
  • We are data crazedBig Data dominated from ….. to Edward Snowden. What is educational big data? How will it harvested, used? Can we see the road through our dashboard? My Austin texas cab driver
  • Hurricane Sandy A revolution in data collection AND representation. Concept that source content is always fluid, Google Earth in constant update model; your Pandora station constantly changing; accelerated by dominance of cloud based computing. Not a document but an interaction; a software performance. Lev Manovich – Algorithms of Our Lives State of permanent change Welcome to the world of permanent change – a world defined not by heavy industrial machines that are modified infrequently but by software that is always in fluxNew LMS platforms are, by design, mutli-tier software, API packagesGoogle: Data Game Changers: SpeedSizeSensors
  • Data is now also about SCALEAnd learning data is ripe for a revolution Enlargement of Instagram project – each tile as an instagram user
  • Phototrails project, comparing Instagram usage by Tokyo, New York, Bangkok and San Francisco Software app used the same; results showing generally consistent patterns of use across cities, but with some hue differences
  • Unbundling Disaggregation Results of convergence of financial, demographic, technological, etc forces Recently referenced A Path Forward Game-Changing Reforms in Higher Education and the Implications for Business and Financing Models David Bergenron, Center for American Progress 1965 – Higher Education Act – Lyndon Johnson enshrined 30 week academic calendarGEDFinancial Aid formulasAcademic workload on 12 credit scale MP Staton among others, writing about current shift away from bundled, woven, systems
  • Unbundling Disaggregation Results of convergence of financial, demographic, technological, etc forces Recently referenced A Path Forward Game-Changing Reforms in Higher Education and the Implications for Business and Financing Models David Bergenron, Center for American Progress 1965 – Higher Education Act – Lyndon Johnson enshrined 30 week academic calendarGEDFinancial Aid formulasAcademic workload on 12 credit scale MP Staton among others, writing about current shift away from bundled, woven, systems
  • Unbundling Disaggregation Results of convergence of financial, demographic, technological, etc forces Recently referenced A Path Forward Game-Changing Reforms in Higher Education and the Implications for Business and Financing Models David Bergenron, Center for American Progress 1965 – Higher Education Act – Lyndon Johnson enshrined 30 week academic calendarGEDFinancial Aid formulasAcademic workload on 12 credit scale MP Staton among others, writing about current shift away from bundled, woven, systems
  • Siemans / LongAccording to the 1st International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge, “learning analytics is the measurement, collection, analysis and reporting of data about learners and their contexts, for purposes of understanding and optimising learning and the environments in which it occurs.”11 “Analytics marries large data sets, statistical techniques, and predictive modeling. It could be thought of as the practice of mining institutional data to produce ‘actionable intelligence.’”12
  • Are our existing ID models adequate to the task? Have our toolsets, platforms, and systems outpaced our ability to create and deliver a compelling, sticky learning experience? Are we wedded to land based design, when we need screen based definitions?
  • Context of most recent ID deployments stems from traditional, land based learning theory. Not invalid, but needs significant adjustment to screen based learning environments. Even more pronounced by new Machine Learning and AI systems, abilities to create learning environments based on sophisticated software algorithms
  • Emphasize an evolving discipline – Need for new model of ID which incorporates cognitive science, learning theory, machine learning software toolsNeed for production and design models based on data driven, team iterations – plan, deploy, gather, iterate – evolving cycles. AGILE Opportunities to reference growing sophistication of learning analytics – towards a predictive, and personalized design. One size need not fit all
  • And as we understand the unraveling, what is the path forward? Where are the opportunities?
  • Oesis West 2014

    1. 1. Blend, Don‟t Break: Thoughts on Teaching and Learning in the Age of the Great Unraveling Howard Lurie / February OESIS West, Marina Del Rey, February, 2014
    2. 2. THE GREAT UNRAVELING
    3. 3. How do we measure, navigate and experience change? US cities / states organized by pop/ sq miles
    4. 4. Core capacities and functions of established institutions are now diversified distributed & differentiated An Unbundling Framework M.P. Staton
    5. 5. Steven Bell, http://lj.libraryjournal.com/2013/02/opinion/steven-bell/does-retention-matter-in-alt-higher-ed-from-the-bell-tower/ Shifts Away from Predictable, Single Pathways
    6. 6. Platform Wars or Deeper Learning?
    7. 7. Towards the Jetsons‟ Classroom?
    8. 8. Actionable Learning Analytics or Just a Cluttered Dashboard?
    9. 9. Reinventing Instructional Design and Course Production
    10. 10. 2006 IWB 2008 OER / DLO / TD 2012 edX, Open Source MOOC 2004 1:1 1992 PINE@will iams.edu 1986 8 mm / slides 1994 MIT Netscape 2000 wysiwyg campus A HIGHLY SELECTIVE AND PERSONAL TIMELINE
    11. 11. Platform Wars or Deeper Learning?
    12. 12. LMS Market Share, 1997 - 2013
    13. 13. Gartner Hype Cycle
    14. 14. 2013 ed tech Hype Cycle
    15. 15. Next Wave LMS • Simple course delivery  “learning experiences” • Single course experience  differentiated pathways for acceleration or remediation • Click through data  predictive learner analytics, consumable by both student and instructor • Digital content repositories  stackable content available across platforms and providers • Departmentalized courses  evolving and practicum focused learning communities • Course in a box  multi-platform and device integration Next Wave LMS Progressions
    16. 16. Towards the Jetsons‟ Classroom?
    17. 17. “2000” circa 1910
    18. 18. Tomorrow’s schools will be more crowded; teachers will be correspondingly fewer. Teaching would be by means of sound movies and mechanical tabulating machines. Pupils would record attendance and answer questions by pushing buttons. Special machines would be “geared” for each individual student so he could advance as rapidly as his abilities warranted. Progress records, also kept by machine, would be periodically reviewed by skilled teachers, and personal help would be available when necessary. http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-jetsons-get-schooled-robot-
    19. 19. Circa 1968
    20. 20. Click to Start or Just Minimize to the Desktop?
    21. 21. Flipped and Blended Classrooms
    22. 22. Candace Thille, Schools of Tomorrow, 9/17/13 That‟s what I‟ve spent the last 10 years of my life doing. One thing we found is that learning is really complex… Once a colleague asked me, „why do you study learning? We all teach, it‟s not rocket science.‟ Well, actually it’s more complex than rocket science. Really understanding human learning at that episodic moment where you have change in thought is a complex process Thille - More complex than rocket science…
    23. 23. Will it Blend?
    24. 24. Questions to Consider for Blended Learning • What are the support systems and training resources for faculty and production units to create and deliver blended course content? • What is the blended learning research agenda? How will data be collected and analyzed? How will data inform the course development roadmap? • What will be the associated business requirements? Credit hours? Faculty compensation? Activity or platform fees? Certificate fees? Will it Blend?
    25. 25. Actionable Learning Analytics or Just a Cluttered Dashboard?
    26. 26. Next Generation of Data Visualization http://hint.fm/projects/wind/ Hint.fm http://hint.fm/projects/wind/
    27. 27. Unbundled Schools – Implications
    28. 28. Phototrails.net
    29. 29. Studying Learning in the Worldwide Classroom; Research into edX‟s First MOOC Research and Practice in Assessment, Summer 2
    30. 30. How does learner activity correlate to performance? Online textbook Videos Assessments Courtesy Seaton, Pritchard Aug 2012 Initial edX attempts at learner analytics
    31. 31. Time/Week per Activity  Weekly time spent per activity
    32. 32. July 24th, 2013 ????? What happened, 7/24/13?
    33. 33. Aggregated Learner Data
    34. 34. http://Harvardx.Harvard.Edu/Multiple-coursereport
    35. 35. Rey Junco…. “learning analytics applied to course management systems and course management systems is basically just a fancy way of saying an online discussion board and they are looking at how many times a student will respond, how - to a discussion - how quickly they respond to a discussion, how often they log on. So just very, very basic levels of data that they're looking at, and so the predictive models are not as accurate as they could be”. https://www.edsurge.com/n/2013-02-20-stanford-harvard-professors-dissect-bigdata Early Gap Analysis on Learning Data
    36. 36. Considerations for Predictive Learning Analytics • Design and build an integrated analytics framework which includes recruitment, retention, and classroom performance. • K. Cator – evolution of an LPS (learning positioning system) • Define the desired range of personalized / adaptive learning features based on student profiles, pre-tests, placements etc. • Careful and close analysis of privacy concerns Towards Predictive Learning Analytics
    37. 37. Acrobatiq – 2014 Saas / API Based Product
    38. 38. Reinventing Instructional Design and Course Production
    39. 39. Roots of Instructional Design – “Land” based teaching
    40. 40. Transitions towards a New Model of Instructional Design Course as product  backward planning learning as process Singular “heroic efforts”  integrated, cross disciplinary teams Vertically integrated service delivery  horizontally built and managed teams Faculty as consumer  faculty as co-producer Dominance of summative assessment models  inclusion of formative assessment models Data production  dataa New Model interpretation and Towards consumption, of Instructional iteration Design
    41. 41. Componetized, Modularized, Super-Sized
    42. 42. Howard Lurie CS4Ed – Consulting Services for Education howard.lurie@gmail.com www.linkedin.com/in/howardlurie

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