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Session 21 Power Point

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Transcript

  • 1. Risk Acceptability Safe does not necessarily mean ‘free from risk’
  • 2. Most Risks have Associated Benefits
  • 3. “Acceptable risk is the risk associated with the best of available alternatives, not with the best of alternatives which we would hope to have available.” Source: Derby, Stephen L., and Ralph L. Keeney, 1981.
  • 4. Factors that Determine Risk Acceptability
    • Personal
    • Political / Social
    • Economic
  • 5. Injustices
    • The process of determining the acceptability of risk can be influenced by those with money and vested interests.
    • Setting a dollar figure (in cost-benefit analyses) on a human life is considered by many to be unethical and unconscionable.
    • Risk management is usually an undemocratic process, as those who may be harmed are not identified or asked if the danger is acceptable to them.
  • 6. Risk Acceptability Assessment Methods
    • “ No Go” Alternative
    • Accept the Risk
    • Establish a “De Minimis Risk” Level
    • Establish a “De Manifestis Risk” Level
    • Perform a Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • Perform Cost Effectiveness
    • Choose the Best Choice Among Alternatives
  • 7. Derby and Keeney’s 5 Steps
    • Define the alternatives
    • Specify the objectives and measures of effectiveness to indicate the degree to which they are achieved
    • Identify the possible consequences of each alternative
    • Quantify the values for the various consequences
    • Analyze the alternatives to select the best choice
    Source: Derby and Keeney, 1981
  • 8. Example A 0 RISK 0 COST
    • K
    • L
    *M Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224.
  • 9. Example B 0 RISK 0 COST
    • K
    • L
    Minimum Risk Minimum Cost Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224.
  • 10. Example C 0 RISK 0 COST
    • K
    • L
    *M * Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224.
  • 11. Example D 0 RISK 0 COST
    • K
    • L
    Case 1 Case 2 Source: Derby, Stephen L., Ralph L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe Is Safe Enough?” Risk Analysis. V.1. No.3. Pp.217-224.