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Transcript

  • 1. Risk Analysis RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE
  • 2. Quantitative vs. Qualitative
    • Quantitative Analysis
      • Uses mathematical/ statistical data to derive numerical descriptions of risk
      • More precise analysis
      • More difficult to perform
    • Qualitative
      • Uses defined terms (words) to describe and categorize risk
      • Less precise analysis
      • Easier to perform
  • 3. Quantitative Likelihood
    • Can be expressed as either:
      • Frequency – gives the number of times of occurrence over a chosen timeframe. 3/year, 1/decade, 10/week.
      • Probability – expresses the outcome as a measure between 0 and 1, or as a percentage between 0% and 100%.
  • 4. Qualitative Likelihood
    • Just one example….
    • Certain - >99% chance of occurring in a given year
    • Likely - 75 - 99% chance of occurring in a given year
    • Possible - 5-74% chance of occurring in a given year
    • Unlikely - 1-20% chance of occurring in a given year
    • Rare - .1 - 1% chance of occurring in a given year
    • Extremely rare – <.1% chance of occurring in a given year
  • 5. Consequence
    • Deaths/Fatalities (Human)
    • Injuries (Human)
    • Damages (Cost, reported in US dollars)
  • 6. Direct Losses “those first order consequences which occur immediately after an event”
    • Fatalities
    • Injuries
    • Repair and replacement of damaged or destroyed public and private structures
    • Relocation costs/temporary housing
    • Loss of business inventory/agriculture
    • Loss of income/rental costs
    • Community response costs
    • Cleanup costs
  • 7. Indirect Losses “may emerge much later, and may be much less easy to attribute directly to the event”
    • Loss of income
    • Input/output losses of businesses
    • Reductions in business /personal spending – “ripple effects”
    • Loss of institutional knowledge
    • Mental illness
    • Bereavement
  • 8. Tangible Losses “those for which a dollar value can be assigned”
    • Cost of building repair/replacement
    • Response costs
    • Loss of inventory
    • Loss of income
  • 9. Intangible Losses “those that cannot be expressed in universally accepted financial terms”
    • Cultural losses
    • Stress
    • Mental illness
    • Sentimental Value
    • Environmental Losses
    • Fatalities/Injuries
  • 10. Gains
    • Decreases in future hazard risk
    • New technologies used in reconstruction
    • Removal of old/unused/hazardous buildings
    • Jobs created in reconstruction
    • Greater public recognition of hazard risk
    • Local/State/Federal funds
    • Environmental Benefits
  • 11. Quantitative Consequence
    • Deaths/Fatalities – 55 people killed
    • Injuries – 530 people injured, 56 seriously
    • Damages - $2 billion in damages, $980 million in insured losses
  • 12. Qualitative Consequence
    • Just one example….
    • Insignificant - No injuries or fatalities.
    • Minor - Small number of injuries but no fatalities. First aid treatment required.
    • Moderate - Medical treatment needed but no fatalities. Some hospitalization.
    • Major - Extensive injuries, significant hospitalization. Fatalities.
    • Catastrophic - Large number of severe injuries. Extended and large numbers requiring hospitalization.
  • 13. Other Measures of Consequence
    • Emergency Operations
    • Social Disruption
    • Disruption to Economy
    • Environmental Impacts
  • 14. Trends
    • Changes in Disaster Frequency
      • Changes in the attributes of the hazard
      • Changes in Human Activity
    • Changes in Disaster Consequences
      • Changes in the attributes of the hazard
      • Changes in human activity
  • 15. 6 Changes in Human Activities
    • Population Growth
    • Land Pressure
    • Economic Growth
    • Technological Innovation
    • Social Expectations
    • Growing Interdependence
  • 16. 4 Steps of Risk Analysis
    • Calculate the (quantitative) likelihood of each identified hazard
    • Calculate the (quantitative) consequences that are expected to occur for each hazard
    • Develop a locally-tailored qualitative system of measurement
    • Translate all quantitative data into qualitative measures