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Risk Analysis RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE
Quantitative vs. Qualitative <ul><li>Quantitative Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Uses mathematical/ statistical data to de...
Quantitative Likelihood <ul><li>Can be expressed as either: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Frequency  – gives the number of times o...
Qualitative Likelihood <ul><li>Just one example…. </li></ul><ul><li>Certain  - >99% chance of occurring in a given year </...
Consequence <ul><li>Deaths/Fatalities (Human) </li></ul><ul><li>Injuries (Human) </li></ul><ul><li>Damages (Cost, reported...
Direct Losses “those first order consequences which occur immediately after an event” <ul><li>Fatalities </li></ul><ul><li...
Indirect Losses “may emerge much later, and may be much less easy to attribute directly to the event” <ul><li>Loss of inco...
Tangible Losses “those for which a dollar value can be assigned” <ul><li>Cost of building repair/replacement </li></ul><ul...
Intangible Losses “those that cannot be expressed in universally accepted financial terms” <ul><li>Cultural losses </li></...
Gains <ul><li>Decreases in future hazard risk </li></ul><ul><li>New technologies used in reconstruction </li></ul><ul><li>...
Quantitative Consequence <ul><li>Deaths/Fatalities –  55 people killed </li></ul><ul><li>Injuries –  530 people injured, 5...
Qualitative Consequence <ul><li>Just one example…. </li></ul><ul><li>Insignificant  - No injuries or fatalities.   </li></...
Other Measures of Consequence <ul><li>Emergency Operations </li></ul><ul><li>Social Disruption </li></ul><ul><li>Disruptio...
Trends <ul><li>Changes in Disaster Frequency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in the attributes of the hazard </li></ul></ul>...
6 Changes in Human Activities <ul><li>Population Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Land Pressure </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Growth ...
4 Steps of Risk Analysis <ul><li>Calculate the (quantitative) likelihood of each identified hazard  </li></ul><ul><li>Calc...
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Session 18 Power Point

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Transcript of "Session 18 Power Point"

  1. 1. Risk Analysis RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE
  2. 2. Quantitative vs. Qualitative <ul><li>Quantitative Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Uses mathematical/ statistical data to derive numerical descriptions of risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More precise analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More difficult to perform </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Qualitative </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Uses defined terms (words) to describe and categorize risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Less precise analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Easier to perform </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Quantitative Likelihood <ul><li>Can be expressed as either: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Frequency – gives the number of times of occurrence over a chosen timeframe. 3/year, 1/decade, 10/week. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Probability – expresses the outcome as a measure between 0 and 1, or as a percentage between 0% and 100%. </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Qualitative Likelihood <ul><li>Just one example…. </li></ul><ul><li>Certain - >99% chance of occurring in a given year </li></ul><ul><li>Likely - 75 - 99% chance of occurring in a given year </li></ul><ul><li>Possible - 5-74% chance of occurring in a given year </li></ul><ul><li>Unlikely - 1-20% chance of occurring in a given year </li></ul><ul><li>Rare - .1 - 1% chance of occurring in a given year </li></ul><ul><li>Extremely rare – <.1% chance of occurring in a given year </li></ul>
  5. 5. Consequence <ul><li>Deaths/Fatalities (Human) </li></ul><ul><li>Injuries (Human) </li></ul><ul><li>Damages (Cost, reported in US dollars) </li></ul>
  6. 6. Direct Losses “those first order consequences which occur immediately after an event” <ul><li>Fatalities </li></ul><ul><li>Injuries </li></ul><ul><li>Repair and replacement of damaged or destroyed public and private structures </li></ul><ul><li>Relocation costs/temporary housing </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of business inventory/agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of income/rental costs </li></ul><ul><li>Community response costs </li></ul><ul><li>Cleanup costs </li></ul>
  7. 7. Indirect Losses “may emerge much later, and may be much less easy to attribute directly to the event” <ul><li>Loss of income </li></ul><ul><li>Input/output losses of businesses </li></ul><ul><li>Reductions in business /personal spending – “ripple effects” </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of institutional knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Mental illness </li></ul><ul><li>Bereavement </li></ul>
  8. 8. Tangible Losses “those for which a dollar value can be assigned” <ul><li>Cost of building repair/replacement </li></ul><ul><li>Response costs </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of inventory </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of income </li></ul>
  9. 9. Intangible Losses “those that cannot be expressed in universally accepted financial terms” <ul><li>Cultural losses </li></ul><ul><li>Stress </li></ul><ul><li>Mental illness </li></ul><ul><li>Sentimental Value </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Losses </li></ul><ul><li>Fatalities/Injuries </li></ul>
  10. 10. Gains <ul><li>Decreases in future hazard risk </li></ul><ul><li>New technologies used in reconstruction </li></ul><ul><li>Removal of old/unused/hazardous buildings </li></ul><ul><li>Jobs created in reconstruction </li></ul><ul><li>Greater public recognition of hazard risk </li></ul><ul><li>Local/State/Federal funds </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Benefits </li></ul>
  11. 11. Quantitative Consequence <ul><li>Deaths/Fatalities – 55 people killed </li></ul><ul><li>Injuries – 530 people injured, 56 seriously </li></ul><ul><li>Damages - $2 billion in damages, $980 million in insured losses </li></ul>
  12. 12. Qualitative Consequence <ul><li>Just one example…. </li></ul><ul><li>Insignificant - No injuries or fatalities. </li></ul><ul><li>Minor - Small number of injuries but no fatalities. First aid treatment required. </li></ul><ul><li>Moderate - Medical treatment needed but no fatalities. Some hospitalization. </li></ul><ul><li>Major - Extensive injuries, significant hospitalization. Fatalities. </li></ul><ul><li>Catastrophic - Large number of severe injuries. Extended and large numbers requiring hospitalization. </li></ul>
  13. 13. Other Measures of Consequence <ul><li>Emergency Operations </li></ul><ul><li>Social Disruption </li></ul><ul><li>Disruption to Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Impacts </li></ul>
  14. 14. Trends <ul><li>Changes in Disaster Frequency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in the attributes of the hazard </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in Human Activity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Changes in Disaster Consequences </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in the attributes of the hazard </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in human activity </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. 6 Changes in Human Activities <ul><li>Population Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Land Pressure </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Technological Innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Social Expectations </li></ul><ul><li>Growing Interdependence </li></ul>
  16. 16. 4 Steps of Risk Analysis <ul><li>Calculate the (quantitative) likelihood of each identified hazard </li></ul><ul><li>Calculate the (quantitative) consequences that are expected to occur for each hazard </li></ul><ul><li>Develop a locally-tailored qualitative system of measurement </li></ul><ul><li>Translate all quantitative data into qualitative measures </li></ul>
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