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# Session 18 Power Point

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### Transcript

• 1. Risk Analysis RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE
• 2. Quantitative vs. Qualitative
• Quantitative Analysis
• Uses mathematical/ statistical data to derive numerical descriptions of risk
• More precise analysis
• More difficult to perform
• Qualitative
• Uses defined terms (words) to describe and categorize risk
• Less precise analysis
• Easier to perform
• 3. Quantitative Likelihood
• Can be expressed as either:
• Frequency – gives the number of times of occurrence over a chosen timeframe. 3/year, 1/decade, 10/week.
• Probability – expresses the outcome as a measure between 0 and 1, or as a percentage between 0% and 100%.
• 4. Qualitative Likelihood
• Just one example….
• Certain - >99% chance of occurring in a given year
• Likely - 75 - 99% chance of occurring in a given year
• Possible - 5-74% chance of occurring in a given year
• Unlikely - 1-20% chance of occurring in a given year
• Rare - .1 - 1% chance of occurring in a given year
• Extremely rare – <.1% chance of occurring in a given year
• 5. Consequence
• Deaths/Fatalities (Human)
• Injuries (Human)
• Damages (Cost, reported in US dollars)
• 6. Direct Losses “those first order consequences which occur immediately after an event”
• Fatalities
• Injuries
• Repair and replacement of damaged or destroyed public and private structures
• Relocation costs/temporary housing
• Loss of income/rental costs
• Community response costs
• Cleanup costs
• 7. Indirect Losses “may emerge much later, and may be much less easy to attribute directly to the event”
• Loss of income
• Reductions in business /personal spending – “ripple effects”
• Loss of institutional knowledge
• Mental illness
• Bereavement
• 8. Tangible Losses “those for which a dollar value can be assigned”
• Cost of building repair/replacement
• Response costs
• Loss of inventory
• Loss of income
• 9. Intangible Losses “those that cannot be expressed in universally accepted financial terms”
• Cultural losses
• Stress
• Mental illness
• Sentimental Value
• Environmental Losses
• Fatalities/Injuries
• 10. Gains
• Decreases in future hazard risk
• New technologies used in reconstruction
• Removal of old/unused/hazardous buildings
• Jobs created in reconstruction
• Greater public recognition of hazard risk
• Local/State/Federal funds
• Environmental Benefits
• 11. Quantitative Consequence
• Deaths/Fatalities – 55 people killed
• Injuries – 530 people injured, 56 seriously
• Damages - \$2 billion in damages, \$980 million in insured losses
• 12. Qualitative Consequence
• Just one example….
• Insignificant - No injuries or fatalities.
• Minor - Small number of injuries but no fatalities. First aid treatment required.
• Moderate - Medical treatment needed but no fatalities. Some hospitalization.
• Major - Extensive injuries, significant hospitalization. Fatalities.
• Catastrophic - Large number of severe injuries. Extended and large numbers requiring hospitalization.
• 13. Other Measures of Consequence
• Emergency Operations
• Social Disruption
• Disruption to Economy
• Environmental Impacts
• 14. Trends
• Changes in Disaster Frequency
• Changes in the attributes of the hazard
• Changes in Human Activity
• Changes in Disaster Consequences
• Changes in the attributes of the hazard
• Changes in human activity
• 15. 6 Changes in Human Activities
• Population Growth
• Land Pressure
• Economic Growth
• Technological Innovation
• Social Expectations
• Growing Interdependence
• 16. 4 Steps of Risk Analysis
• Calculate the (quantitative) likelihood of each identified hazard
• Calculate the (quantitative) consequences that are expected to occur for each hazard
• Develop a locally-tailored qualitative system of measurement
• Translate all quantitative data into qualitative measures