1
www.nl2040.nl
The Netherlands of 2040
2
Times Are a-Changin’
3
Times Are a-Changin’
4
New CPB Scenario Study
Question
How will we earn our daily bread in 2040?
Approach
Scenarios to deal with uncertainty
An...
5
Specialisation of Work …
Brainstorm
Blueprint Prototype
Chips
Packaging
Retail
Retail
Retail
Retail
Production
6
Smart People
Specialisation
Communication technology …
… leads to unbundling of tasks …
… global knowledge exchange …
… ...
7
Generalisation
8
Smart people
... or generalisation
Mechanics masters more complex systems
Insurance agents with broad portfolio
Expert s...
9
Smart People
Specialisation
Communication technology …
… leads to unbundling of tasks …
… global knowledge exchange …
… ...
10
Cities Are the Place to Be
Stockholm
Barcelona Tokyo
Dallas
Packaging
Retail
Retail
Retail
Retail
Production
11
Concentration of Economic Activity …
12
Strong Cities
Concentration
Economies of scale …
… with face-to-face interactions …
… to develop new technologies
13
… or Scattering of Economic Activity
14
Strong Cities
Concentration
Economies of scale …
… with face-to-face interactions …
… to develop new technologies
Scatt...
15
Scattering
Concentration
GeneralisationSpecialisation
Two Uncertainties
16
Four Scenarios
Scattering
Concentration
GeneralisationSpecialisation
Metropolitan
Markets
Cosmopolitan
Centres
Talent
T...
17
Talent Towns
• Communication technology: specialists
• Interaction and surroundings: small cities
• Very dynamic: oppor...
18
Talent Towns
• Communication technology: specialists
• Interaction and surroundings: small cities
• Very dynamic: oppor...
19
Cosmopolitan Centers
• Bio- and nanotechnology: science based
• Communication: global division of tasks
• Cities: clust...
20
Cosmopolitan Centers
• Bio- and nanotechnology: science based
• Communication: global division of tasks
• Cities: clust...
21
Egalitarian ecologies
• Information technology: generalists
• Product variation: local demand
• Medium-sized cities: qu...
22
Egalitarian ecologies
• Information technology: generalists
• Product variation: local demand
• Medium-sized cities: qu...
23
Metropolitan Markets
• Bio- and nanotechnology break through
• Large firms: marketable applications
• Research centres ...
24
Metropolitan Markets
• Bio- and nanotechnology break through
• Large firms: marketable applications
• Research centres ...
25
The Magic Circle of Policymaking
26
Attractors (A) and mobile production factors (M)
AMAMIdeas
absorbedlocal varietyneeds scaleweakHigh Tech Campus
attract...
27
Connections
localgloballocal and globalglobalIdeas
link to
Randstad
link to global
knowledge
part of local
infrastructu...
28
The knowledge economy
fundamental
and applied,
within firms
applied and
incremental
radical,
firm-university
linkages
d...
29
Innovation policy
0++++Innovation subsidy
0+0+Innovation credit
+++++Intellectual property rights
largesmalllargesmallC...
30
High Tech Campus Eindhoven: summary
large firmsapplied,
differentiation
GPT research,
firm - university
specialisation,...
31
www.nl2040.nl
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Nl2040 eindhoven 100909

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Nl2040 eindhoven 100909

  1. 1. 1 www.nl2040.nl The Netherlands of 2040
  2. 2. 2 Times Are a-Changin’
  3. 3. 3 Times Are a-Changin’
  4. 4. 4 New CPB Scenario Study Question How will we earn our daily bread in 2040? Approach Scenarios to deal with uncertainty Answer Smart people Strong cities Policy
  5. 5. 5 Specialisation of Work … Brainstorm Blueprint Prototype Chips Packaging Retail Retail Retail Retail Production
  6. 6. 6 Smart People Specialisation Communication technology … … leads to unbundling of tasks … … global knowledge exchange … … and production by specialist workers
  7. 7. 7 Generalisation
  8. 8. 8 Smart people ... or generalisation Mechanics masters more complex systems Insurance agents with broad portfolio Expert system to diagnose illness Design programmes Write your own emails
  9. 9. 9 Smart People Specialisation Communication technology … … leads to unbundling of tasks … … global knowledge exchange … … and production by specialist workers Generalisation Information technology … … bundles tasks … … performed by autonomous workers
  10. 10. 10 Cities Are the Place to Be Stockholm Barcelona Tokyo Dallas Packaging Retail Retail Retail Retail Production
  11. 11. 11 Concentration of Economic Activity …
  12. 12. 12 Strong Cities Concentration Economies of scale … … with face-to-face interactions … … to develop new technologies
  13. 13. 13 … or Scattering of Economic Activity
  14. 14. 14 Strong Cities Concentration Economies of scale … … with face-to-face interactions … … to develop new technologies Scattering Networks of small cities … … with excellent connections … … facilitated by ICT
  15. 15. 15 Scattering Concentration GeneralisationSpecialisation Two Uncertainties
  16. 16. 16 Four Scenarios Scattering Concentration GeneralisationSpecialisation Metropolitan Markets Cosmopolitan Centres Talent Towns Egalitarian Ecologies
  17. 17. 17 Talent Towns • Communication technology: specialists • Interaction and surroundings: small cities • Very dynamic: opportunities and challenges • High incomes, yet high competition • Low incomes under pressure • Netherlands: business services • Manufacturing to Asia
  18. 18. 18 Talent Towns • Communication technology: specialists • Interaction and surroundings: small cities • Very dynamic: opportunities and challenges • High incomes, yet high competition • Low incomes under pressure • Netherlands: business services • Manufacturing to Asia
  19. 19. 19 Cosmopolitan Centers • Bio- and nanotechnology: science based • Communication: global division of tasks • Cities: clusters of specialised activity • Risk: other city takes over • Substantial income inequality • Examples of possible Dutch clusters: • water, biomass, medical, logistics, creative
  20. 20. 20 Cosmopolitan Centers • Bio- and nanotechnology: science based • Communication: global division of tasks • Cities: clusters of specialised activity • Risk: other city takes over • Substantial income inequality • Examples of possible Dutch clusters: • water, biomass, medical, logistics, creative
  21. 21. 21 Egalitarian ecologies • Information technology: generalists • Product variation: local demand • Medium-sized cities: quality • Moderate growth of incomes: • Limited technological progress • Wealth to raw materials suppliers • East and south of Netherlands flourish
  22. 22. 22 Egalitarian ecologies • Information technology: generalists • Product variation: local demand • Medium-sized cities: quality • Moderate growth of incomes: • Limited technological progress • Wealth to raw materials suppliers • East and south of Netherlands flourish
  23. 23. 23 Metropolitan Markets • Bio- and nanotechnology break through • Large firms: marketable applications • Research centres and face-to-face contact • Metropolis attracts firms and people • Hinterland lags behind • Large income inequality • Netherlands large enough?
  24. 24. 24 Metropolitan Markets • Bio- and nanotechnology break through • Large firms: marketable applications • Research centres and face-to-face contact • Metropolis attracts firms and people • Hinterland lags behind • Large income inequality • Netherlands large enough?
  25. 25. 25 The Magic Circle of Policymaking
  26. 26. 26 Attractors (A) and mobile production factors (M) AMAMIdeas absorbedlocal varietyneeds scaleweakHigh Tech Campus attractor AAMMDemand AMAMWorkers MMEECCTT
  27. 27. 27 Connections localgloballocal and globalglobalIdeas link to Randstad link to global knowledge part of local infrastructure part of network High Tech Campus limitedcontinentalglobalglobalFinal goods localnationallocal and globalcontinentalWorkers MMEECCTT
  28. 28. 28 The knowledge economy fundamental and applied, within firms applied and incremental radical, firm-university linkages direct applications, strong competition Innovation large firmsapplied, differentiation GPT research, firm- university specialisation, competition High Tech Campus generalgeneralspecificspecificKnowledge different workers different workers similar workers similar workers Spillovers among application oriented 0research oriented 0GPT MMEECCTT
  29. 29. 29 Innovation policy 0++++Innovation subsidy 0+0+Innovation credit +++++Intellectual property rights largesmalllargesmallCompany size incumbentsincumbentsbothentrantsCompany market position genericgenericspecificspecificPolicy orientation 00+0Public – private cooperation hardlylimitedhighlimitedPolicy scope MMEECCTT
  30. 30. 30 High Tech Campus Eindhoven: summary large firmsapplied, differentiation GPT research, firm - university specialisation, competition Knowledge link to Randstad link to global knowledge part of local infrastructure part of networkConnections absorbedlocal varietyneeds scaleweakAttractor IPRIPR, subsidy and credits PPP, IPR, subsidy IPR, subsidy and credits Policy focus hardlylimitedhighlimitedPolicy support MMEECCTT
  31. 31. 31 www.nl2040.nl

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