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Nl2040 eindhoven 100909 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. The Netherlands of 2040 www.nl2040.nl 1
  • 2. Times Are a-Changin’ 2
  • 3. Times Are a-Changin’ 3
  • 4. New CPB Scenario Study Question How will we earn our daily bread in 2040? Approach Scenarios to deal with uncertainty Answer Smart people Strong cities Policy 4
  • 5. Specialisation of Work … Brainstorm Retail Retail Blueprint PrototypeChips Production Packaging Retail Retail 5
  • 6. Smart People Specialisation Communication technology … … leads to unbundling of tasks … … global knowledge exchange … … and production by specialist workers 6
  • 7. Generalisation 7
  • 8. Smart people ... or generalisation Mechanics masters more complex systems Insurance agents with broad portfolio Expert system to diagnose illness Design programmes Write your own emails 8
  • 9. Smart People Specialisation Communication technology … … leads to unbundling of tasks … … global knowledge exchange … … and production by specialist workers Generalisation Information technology … … bundles tasks … … performed by autonomous workers 9
  • 10. Cities Are the Place to Be Stockholm Retail Retail Barcelona TokyoDallas Production Packaging Retail Retail 10
  • 11. Concentration of Economic Activity … 11
  • 12. Strong Cities Concentration Economies of scale … … with face-to-face interactions … … to develop new technologies 12
  • 13. … or Scattering of Economic Activity 13
  • 14. Strong Cities Concentration Economies of scale … … with face-to-face interactions … … to develop new technologies Scattering Networks of small cities … … with excellent connections … … facilitated by ICT 14
  • 15. Two Uncertainties ScatteringSpecialisation Generalisation Concentration 15
  • 16. Four Scenarios Scattering Talent Egalitarian Towns EcologiesSpecialisation Generalisation Cosmopolitan Metropolitan Centres Markets Concentration 16
  • 17. Talent Towns• Communication technology: specialists• Interaction and surroundings: small cities• Very dynamic: opportunities and challenges• High incomes, yet high competition• Low incomes under pressure• Netherlands: business services• Manufacturing to Asia 17
  • 18. Talent Towns• Communication technology: specialists• Interaction and surroundings: small cities• Very dynamic: opportunities and challenges• High incomes, yet high competition• Low incomes under pressure• Netherlands: business services• Manufacturing to Asia 18
  • 19. Cosmopolitan Centers• Bio- and nanotechnology: science based• Communication: global division of tasks• Cities: clusters of specialised activity• Risk: other city takes over• Substantial income inequality• Examples of possible Dutch clusters: • water, biomass, medical, logistics, creative 19
  • 20. Cosmopolitan Centers• Bio- and nanotechnology: science based• Communication: global division of tasks• Cities: clusters of specialised activity• Risk: other city takes over• Substantial income inequality• Examples of possible Dutch clusters: • water, biomass, medical, logistics, creative 20
  • 21. Egalitarian ecologies • Information technology: generalists • Product variation: local demand • Medium-sized cities: quality • Moderate growth of incomes: • Limited technological progress • Wealth to raw materials suppliers • East and south of Netherlands flourish 21
  • 22. Egalitarian ecologies • Information technology: generalists • Product variation: local demand • Medium-sized cities: quality • Moderate growth of incomes: • Limited technological progress • Wealth to raw materials suppliers • East and south of Netherlands flourish 22
  • 23. Metropolitan Markets • Bio- and nanotechnology break through • Large firms: marketable applications • Research centres and face-to-face contact • Metropolis attracts firms and people • Hinterland lags behind • Large income inequality • Netherlands large enough? 23
  • 24. Metropolitan Markets • Bio- and nanotechnology break through • Large firms: marketable applications • Research centres and face-to-face contact • Metropolis attracts firms and people • Hinterland lags behind • Large income inequality • Netherlands large enough? 24
  • 25. The Magic Circle of Policymaking 25
  • 26. Attractors (A) and mobile production factors (M) TT CC EE MMWorkers M A M AIdeas M A M ADemand M M A AHigh Tech Campus weak needs scale local variety absorbedattractor 26
  • 27. Connections TT CC EE MMWorkers continental local and global national localIdeas global local and global global localFinal goods global global continental limitedHigh Tech part of part of local link to global link toCampus network infrastructure knowledge Randstad 27
  • 28. The knowledge economy TT CC EE MMGPT 0 research 0 application oriented orientedKnowledge specific specific general generalSpillovers similar similar different differentamong workers workers workers workersInnovation direct applications, radical, applied and fundamental strong competition firm-university incremental and applied, linkages within firmsHigh Tech specialisation, GPT research, applied, large firmsCampus competition firm- university differentiation 28
  • 29. Innovation policy TT CC EE MMPolicy scope limited high limited hardlyPolicy orientation specific specific generic genericPublic – private cooperation 0 + 0 0Company size small large small largeCompany market position entrants both incumbents incumbentsIntellectual property rights + ++ + +Innovation subsidy + ++ + 0Innovation credit + 0 + 0 29
  • 30. High Tech Campus Eindhoven: summary TT CC EE MMAttractor weak needs scale local variety absorbedConnections part of network part of local link to global link to infrastructure knowledge RandstadKnowledge specialisation, GPT research, applied, large firms competition firm - university differentiationPolicy support limited high limited hardlyPolicy focus IPR, subsidy PPP, IPR, IPR, subsidy IPR and credits subsidy and credits 30
  • 31. www.nl2040.nl 31