Presentasi Penelitian S3

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My Doctoral Research about Developing a System Dynamic Model to Evaluate Biodiesel Industry in Indonesia

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Presentasi Penelitian S3

  1. 1. Pengembangan Model Multi Tingkatan Industri Biodiesel BerbahanMinyak Kelapa Sawit secara Berkelanjutan di Indonesiadengan Pendekatan Sistem Dinamis Akhmad Hidayatno NPM 0806400882 Program Studi Teknik Kimia
  2. 2. Agenda of the Presentations • Research Overviews and Methodology • Model Conceptualization and Model Formulation • Model Verification and Validation • Scenarios Development and Analysis 2
  3. 3. Due to the pressure of increase oil prices starting in 2006, the government initiated energy diversification program that includes biodiesel 2025 Penciptaan 10.22 mil kL Kepastian Efek Nilai Tambah Industri Regulasi Diversifikasi BBN 20% Pasar Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja UU 30/2007, (Untuk Inpres 1/2006, BioDiesel Peningkatan Nilai Tambah 2015 Penggerak Ekonomi Permen ESDM 32/2008 2025: 20%) Domestik 4.52 mil kL Menko Perekonomian Menteri Perdagangan International Standard 15% Bodies (RSPO) Menteri Perindustrian Menteri Keuangan LSM International Export and International Market 2010 Cultivation CPO/Oil Production BioDiesel Production Blending Distribution Local Market Subsidi Langsung 2.41 mil kL Menko Perekonomian Menteri Kehutanan Menko Perekonomian Menteri Perindustrian Menko Perekonomian Menteri Perindustrian Menko Perekonomian Menteri ESDM Menko Perekonomian Menteri ESDM Pembelian 5% Menteri Keuangan Menteri Keuangan Menteri Keuangan Menteri Keuangan Menteri Keuangan Menteri Negara Lingkungan Hidup Menteri Negara Riset dan Teknologi Menteri Negara Riset dan Teknologi Menteri Negara Riset dan Teknologi Menteri Negara Lingkungan Hidup Biodiesel Meneg BUMN Meneg Koperasi & UKM Meneg BUMN Meneg Koperasi & UKM Meneg BUMN Meneg Koperasi & UKM PERTAMINA Meneg BUMN PERTAMINA Rp 2000,- Menteri Pertanian Menteri Perhubungan Menteri Perhubungan Mendagri Mendagri Gubernur dan Bupati Gubernur dan Bupati 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 - nowDiversification Investment Biodiesel RealityStarted Attractiveness Producers kicks in ??? Growth Harga Minyak Dunia Meroket, Harga CPO Anjlok 1.8 juta kL 50% 14 1
  4. 4. What are the challenges and impacts of biodiesel industry development in Indonesia?What should the government do to What is the sustainability contributionsupport the emergence of mature and impact of a mature Biodiesel biodiesel industry and market? Industry in Indonesia at the national level? how? what? Micro Model of impact Macro Model of Biodiesel National Production Chain Sustainable Enterprise Development 4
  5. 5. .. early hypothesis can be drawn into these 2 reference modes showing 2possible outcomes of biodiesel industry growth … Produksi Biodiesel Modus Referensi: Grafik ini menunjukkan kekhawatiran pemerintah Perusahaan selaku pemilik permasalahan terhadap kemungkinan Biodiesel adanya gap antara produksi biodiesel ideal dengan Harapan produksi sesungguhnya. Modus Referensi: Perusahaan Biodiesel Dihindari2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Modus Referensi: Perusahaan Jumlah Produsen Biodiesel Biodiesel Modus Grafik ini menunjukkan kekhawatiran pemerintah Referensi: selaku pemilik permasalahan terhadap kemungkinan Perusahaan Biodiesel Harapan tidak tertariknya industri swasta terhadap produksi Modus Referensi: biodiesel Perusahaan Biodiesel Modus Referensi: Perusahaan Biodiesel Dihindari2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 5
  6. 6. Alternatif Kebijakan ESDM Facilitating Quantity Matching Price Government Freeing Allocate Markets Regulations Grants Regulations Corporations Markets Property Meneg BUMN (Legalize) Rights Tax Credits Tariffs Subsidies Meneg UKM Kehutanan Interfacing Model Pertanian SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) Perdagangan Reference Energy Masukan dan System Konsumsi Kinerja Keluaran Meneg LHFaktor Eksternal Produksi Terpenuhinya Target Harga Minyak Perindustrian Nasional Produksi Dunia Biodiesel secara Berkelanjutan MenristekHarga Ekspor Pendapatan Kebutuhan Total Loan/Debt Ekonomi/Minyak Kelapa Sawit Energi per Sektor Keuangan Model Makro (Transportasi PSO, Investasi Non-Psi, Industri) Pendidikan Kinerja Berkelanjutan Problem Owner: Mendagri Total Luas pada Mikro dan Makro Pemerintah (Gubernur/ Lahan Lahan Teknologi Bupati) Energy Balance Indikator Ekonomi Tenaga Kerja Kurs Mata Tujuan Utama: Uang Daya Dukung Pemenuhan Target Jangka Lingkungan Indikator Sosial Panjang Pemanfaatan Pasokan Energi Kesehatan (Tanah, Air) Bahan Bakar Nabati Tidak Terbarukan (Gas, Coal, Nasional Indikator Lingkungan Pasokan Energi Sumber Daya Kemiskinan Keterbarukan Lingkungan Usaha (Other Biofuels, Konservasi Geothermal, Hydro) Emisi/Polusi (GHG, Populasi Toxic Susbtance) Stakeholder (Pengusaha Biodiesel, PERTAMINA, Pabrik dan Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit, Pasokan Biodiesel Kontribusi Lingkungan Kontribusi Sosial Konsumen Biosolar, LSM, RSPO) Model Mikro Industri BioDiesel Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit Produksi MKS/CPO Produksi BioDiesel En En En Ec Soc Ec Soc Ec Soc LCA LCA LCA 6
  7. 7. Research Methodology is based on system dynamics methodology Formulasi Riset Tujuan, Batasan, Journal Review, Pengumpulan Data Pengembangan Konseptual Model Mikro Tujuan, Batasan, Asumsi, Modus Referensi, Hipotesa Dinamis, dan Causal Loop Diagram Utama Model Mikro Model Finansial Pengembangan Model finansial dengan aplikasi spreadsheet Pengembangan Model Mikro Life Cycle Analysis Pengumpulan dan Pengolahan Data, Stock Perhitungan LCA berdasarkan peta proses dan model and Flow Model Mikro, Verifikasi dan finansial Pengembangan Konseptual Validasi Model Makro Tujuan, Batasan, Asumsi, Modus Referensi, Hipotesa Dinamis, dan Causal Loop Diagram Utama Model Makro Pengembangan Skenario Pengembangan Model Makro Analisa Alternatif Kebijakan, Pengolahan Pengumpulan dan Pengolahan Data, Stock Data Input and Flow Model Makro, Verifikasi dan Validasi Simulasi Skenario & Analisa Skenario dijalankan didalam simulasi dan di analisa Analisa Perilaku Model dan Skenario 7
  8. 8. Agenda of the Presentations • Research Overviews and Methodology • Model Conceptualization and Model Formulation • Model Verification and Validation • Scenarios Development and Analysis 8
  9. 9. The research acknowledges that developing this model is a daunting taskwith so many information still unknown…Bioenergy Modeling is more Complex Ross (2000) Highlights 3 Complexities of Bioenergy Modeling (1) Local conditions of sources would limit the generic model, (2) still few documented large scale bioenergy systems, (3) Biofuel are usually a by-products of main activities which would increase dependenciesAbility to map the complex systemic relationships of 3 aspects of sustainability The complex relationships of variables within the systems can be traced and evaluated Preparation for still so many unknown variablesLong Time Period of Analysis The target for biofuel development is 20 years. Short-term or medium-term model that dominates economic models is insufficient 9
  10. 10. We develop the micro model based on process map of biodiesel production chain,supported by financial model, LCA approach, and sustainability framework incorporations … Peta Proses Penetapan dan Proyeksi Data Produksi Exogenous yang Berpengaruh pada Seluruh Komponen Model Sub-Model Financial Sub-Model Verifikasi Analisa Produksi Model Sustainability dan Validasi Simulasi Indicators Variable Variable Finansial Environment (LCA) Production Perhitungan Mendapatkan Data Rumus LCA dari dataKalkulasi Investasi, Sekunder Pendanaan danBiaya Detail dalam Variable Spreadsheet Labor Social Konsep Sustainability 10
  11. 11. .. the micro model also tries to accommodate different ownership structure types ofthe production chain .. Structure 1 (Code 1) PALM CPO FACTORY CPO MARKET PLANTATION Total Differentiation. No Single Ownership of all Chains BIODIESEL BIODIESEL FACTORY MARKET Structure 2 (Code 2) PALM CPO FACTORY CPO MARKET PLANTATION Plantation and CPO Factory are single owner, however Biodiesel Factory is independent. BIODIESEL BIODIESEL This is the typical structure of the industry FACTORY MARKET Structure 3 (Code 3) PALM Conglomeration, total vertical PLANTATION CPO FACTORY integration. All Chain are owned by single company dedicated to BioDiesel MArket BIODIESEL BIODIESEL FACTORY MARKET 11
  12. 12. .. And we come up with this conclusions as a dynamic hypothesis Export Tariffs Biodiesel Production Extraction CPO Domestic No of Biodiesel Rate CPO Supply Companies Biodiesel Production Production “Green Gold” Volume Exports Income R2 – Biodiesel Capacity Investment Biodiesel National CPO Production Investment B1 – Biodiesel Capacity Biodiesel Cost of Attractiveness Competition Supply World Biodiesel Environmental CPO Price Protection (RSPO) Company Profitability Supply and CPO Producers Demand Gap Fresh Fruit Bunch Profitability R1 – CPO Investment Drive (FFB) Production Biodiesel Price BiodieselPlantation Domestic Subsidy Blending Area CPO Price Domestic Mandate CPO Price for Diesel Price Land Clearing Time to CO2 Integrated Rate Recovery Ownership Structure World Oil National Biodiesel Slash and Price Demand Burn Environmental Impacts (LCA) Environment Land Domestic Number of Not Slash and Certification Productivity Subsidy National Diesel Workers Burn Fuel DemandR3 – LandExpansion Domestic CPO Unproductive R2 – Biodiesel Forest Effects on CPO Demand Land Critical Land CPO Producers’ Price Workers CSR Allocation Productivity Domestic GDP Peat Land 12
  13. 13. .. and developing the stock and flow model, this is the bird view of the micromodel … Physical Flow – Pulled by Demand Financial Calculation Information Extraction and Flow 13
  14. 14. .. which can be simplified … • CO2 • Land Opening Environmental Impact • Life Cycle Analysis Material Flow National Petrol Diesel Demand Plantation CPO Factory Biodiesel Factory • Land Opening • Factory Activity • Factory Activity • Plantation Activity • Palm Oil Production • Biodiesel Production • Palm Oil Harvesting • Palm Kernel Oil Prod • Gliserin Production Plantation CPO Factory Biodiesel Factory • Investment &Loan • Investment and Loan • Investment & Loan • Cash flow • Cash flow & Profitability • Cash flow & Nat. Demand • FFB Price • CPO & PKO Price • Biodiesel & Petrol Price Information and Financial Flow • Employment • Rural Development Social Impact • RSPO • Nucleus Development 14
  15. 15. After developing the mikro model the research started to work on the macromodel .. What are the challenges and impacts of biodiesel industry development in Indonesia? What kind of integrated policy the government should do to support the emergence of mature biodiesel The models aims to industry and market? • better understanding of the structure of relationships between biodiesel industry and sustainability in the national level What is the sustainability • Shows the behavior of key contribution and impact of a mature sustainable indicators with the Biodiesel Industry in Indonesia at production of biodiesel the national level? 15
  16. 16. .. it will link through a translator sub-module with focus on mikro model ofsustainability indicators and makro model energy demand outputs which translatesto biodiesel demands … social output model environmental makro output sustainability input (T21 impact Based) economy output Agregasi/dis-agregasi linear dengan mempertimbangkan delay energy demand sub- model environmental output input model mikro social output sustainability financial indicators output 16
  17. 17. … and we found T21 Starting Framework Model that based on sustainability interactions of developing nations … Tenaga Kerja Produktif , Konsumsi RT Sosial & Economic Human Capital Capital Infrastruktur, Bangunan, Kesehatan, keahlian, Alat-alat Produksi, dsb pengetahuan, semangat komunitas Pendapatan, Kesempatan Kerja Emisi Polusi, Sampah, Efek Kesehatan, investasi konservasi Kualitas hidupsumber daya Modalekonomi,menyerap/ Lingkunganmelepaskanpolutan Flora dan fauna, sumber daya alam, air, kesadaran udara konservasi lingkungan 17
  18. 18. … it is transparent and robust, so it can be expanded to accommodate the need foranalysis of other areas that affects sustainable development… REGIONAL ENERGY DEVELOP MENT T21 Energy T21 Papua USA T21 has been used in many countries and for different focus analysis of sustainability framework, there are T21 China, Lolland, North America, USA, Jamaica, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Papua, Guyana 18
  19. 19. .. we start to investigate 3 model variations of T21 models to seekunderstanding of the structure involved … Basic Structure (Starting Framework) T21 Starting Framework Focuses on MDGs Numbers Showcase of SD approach: behavior not projections T21 Energy T21 Papua USA Energy Supply Demand Modules Analysis Mining Infrastructure Focuses on US Energy Policy Impact to social and environment Regional Model of Papua 19
  20. 20. .. and we decided to use T21 as the base model, why? ..Build on the T21 Strength Ability to map and draw the complex systemic relationships of 3 aspects of sustainability, Transparency, Fitness of Use (Aggregation Level and Time Period of Analysis), Tools for increasing understandingThe only models that started from sustainability development perspectives Other models were begun as economy-energy models than expanding to cover environment and social aspectsCompatibility with the micro model development Biodiesel industry sub model has been developedIndonesian sub-models are already exist T21 Papua focuses on the development of PapuaOpening the door of future researches on sustainability The basic model of BSM can be used for other purpose of analysis 20
  21. 21. … we re-engineered the model based on this logic … T21 Starting 2008 Data T21 Papua Updates & Framework Structure Availability T21 Energy Data USA Structure Processing Biodiesel Tujuan Model Sustainability Model (BSM) Biodiesel Aggregating Micro Model Engine 21
  22. 22. … we updates the data using these data sources … Ekonomi Sosial Lingkungan EnergiWorld Bank: World Development Index X X XReport and Database 2009Ringkasan Laporan APBN 2005-2010 XInternational Monetary Fund Report and Economic XOutlook 2009Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi Indonesia 2005 X XStatistical Database Bank Indonesia XFood and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) X XStatisticsInternational Labor Organization Report XOrganization For Economic Co-Operation And XDevelopment (OECD) ReportFAO reports on Forestry and Water Utilization XEnergy Handbook – Kementerian ESDM 2005- X2010Energy Information Administration (EIA) XInternational Energy Outlook (IEO)Navigating the numbers , Greenhouse Gas Data xand International Climate Policy – World ResourceInstitute (WRI) 22
  23. 23. .. these are the sub-models dan modules … Ekonomi Sosial Lingkungan Energi Produksi populasi perubahan Permintaan energi jumlah produksi Pertanian iklim rumah tangga biodiesel Produksi teknologi efek rumah Permintaan energi jumlah tenaga Industri kaca & polusi Industri kerja Produksi Jasa pendidikan cadangan air Permintaan energi jumlah Jasa penggunaan lahan Investasi tenaga kerja kehutanan permintaan energi pendapatan transportasi nominal Pendapatan distribusi Eksplorasi Minyak jumlah Pemerintah pendapatan Bumi kontribusi pajak Pengeluaran rumah Biaya Minyak Pemerintah tangga Bumi Neraca harapan Total Kebutuhan Pemerintah hidup energi Perdagangan Internasional Harga Relatif 23
  24. 24. .. and these are the dynamic relationships … Economy Social education Government Government Revenue Expenditure Life Household expectancy Consumption R1Public health Economic Growth Loop population international trade R4 productivity loop Household Income employment Environmental Household Savings Climate Impact 3 sectors R3 technology growth loop GHG & Carbon R2 Private production Footprint Economy Loop Forest Investment Carbon Cycle Water Technology Energy Demand R5 biodiesel residential demand growth loop technology services biodiesel industrial industry transportation 24
  25. 25. .. this is the bird view of the BSM .. 25
  26. 26. .. and this is the simplified diagram of the integrated BSM model Biodiesel Development Model Sustainability Impact Macro Sub-Model Sustainable Socio- Tech Indicators Environment Module Module GHG Climate Forest Water Emission Change Household Social Life Expectancy Income Economy Economic Module Distribution Environ- Production Government Population ment Agri Serv Ind Inco Exp Balan me end ce Technology Energy Mix Relative International Investment Employment Prices Trade Biodiesel Volume Energy Module Oil Energy Demand Prod Explora National Residential Serv Ind Transp tion Price ort Biodiesel Sustainable Indicator Financial Social LCA Environment Micro Sub-Model Land Clearing and CPO Factory Biodiesel Biodiesel Plantation Price & Demand Land Clearing Expansion Expansion Module Rate & Types Plantation Decision Extraction Decision Integrated Chain Single Chain 26
  27. 27. .. with these global assumptions for both micro and macro models … Endogenous Exogenous Excluded Production Volume and World Oil Price Weather and Climate Capacity Expansion World CPO Price Workers Productivity Cost of Goods Sold Fresh Fruit Bunch Price Technology Population Biodiesel Blending, Deman Politics and Social Issues Life Expectancy Land Productivity Disaster Education Index Subsidized Diesel Market Price Crime and Corruption GDP Inflation Terrorism Technology Migration War Investment Population Growth Rate Other renewable energy Consumption Health production Debt Mining Production Land Utilization Grants Energi Demand Emergency Funds Oil Production Exchange Rate GHG Emissions Urbanization Rate Carbon Cycle Omission and Adjustments Table Climate Change Forest 27
  28. 28. And connecting the micro and macro model .. Micro Model Sub-Models Macro Model Sub-Models Tax Financial ► Government Income Economy Income from Production Financial ► Agricultural Production Economy Labor Social ► Employment Social Land Clearing Environment ► Forest Environment Net CO2 Emission Environment ► Net CO2 Emission Environment Actual Biodiesel ► Biodiesel Production Aggregate Energy Production Financial Biodiesel Demand Financial ◄ National Petroleum Demand Energy 28
  29. 29. .. with the capabilities to generate these sustainability indicators … micro Financial Social Environment Energy Biodiesel EBITDA, IRR, & NPV Biodiesel Produced (ton) Workers (People) CO2 Emission (kg CO2) (IDR) Palm Oil Plantation EBITDA, Plasma Farmers Household Photo-oxydant formation (kg IRR, & NPV (IDR) (Number) Ethylene) Climate Change (Kilo Ton Emtion) Human Ecotoxicity (kg NO2) Nature Abiotic Depletion (kg Antimony) Eutrophication Impact (kg SO2) Acidification Impact (kg PO4) macro Economi Social Environment Energy Greenhouse Gas emissions Agricultural Production Residential Petroleum Demand Population (person) per USD of GDP (USD) (kiloliter) (kg/(year*USD)) Rural Gini Coefficient Carbon Footprints per Capita Industrial Production (USD) Industrial Petroleum Demand (kiloliter) (index) (kg/(year*person)) Unemployment Commercial Petroleum Demand Service Production (USD) Forest Land (km2) (number) (kiloliter) Real GDP at Market Price Transportation Petroleum Demand CO2 Emission Total and Fuel (USD) (kiloliter) Real GDP per Capita (USD) Total Energy Demand (BOE) Biodiesel Share of Energy (BOE) 29
  30. 30. Agenda of the Presentations • Research Overviews and Methodology • Model Conceptualization and Model Formulation • Model Verification and Validation • Scenarios Development and Analysis 30
  31. 31. Micro Model Verification and Validation Output Aspek Finansial (min) (max) (rata-rata) Deviasi Referensi ModelProduktivitas CPO infosawit, juni 2009 hal 3.73 3.91 4 9.66%(ton/hektar/tahun) 3.37 22Produktivitas TBS 21.3324997 infosawit, juni 2009 hal 20 30 25 6.66%(ton/hektar/tahun) 3 49Ekstraksi CPO (ton/ton TBS) 20% 23.75% 23.50% 1.05% iyung pahan, hal 306Ekstraksi KPO (ton/ton TBS) 0.045 0.055 0.05 0.00% iyung pahan, hal 306 0.05 Rp Rp Rp RpHPP CPO (ribu rupiah/ton) 8.01% iyung pahan, hal 306 1,542.00 3,751.00 2,646.50 3,450.59 rata-rata Output Deviasi Aspek Sosial Min Max (10 ribu hektar) Model 5 orang / 10 hektar 1 orang/ 10 hektar 1000 1000 0.00% penyerapan tenaga kerja perkebunan Perkebunan infosawit, februari 2009 referensi infosawit, mei 2009 hal 12 hal 15 Output Aspek Lingkungan (min) (max) (rata-rata) Deviasi Referensi ModelEmisi GHG-GRK CPO Production infosawit, oktober 2009 250 450 350 418 7.044357% (kg CO2-eq/ton CPO) hal 46 31
  32. 32. .. the model behave as we expected in the reference modes … Produksi Pertanian Biodiesel Production $100.00 12 kiloliter/yr $80.00 10 kiloliter/yr 8 kiloliter/yrBMilliar USD Millions $60.00 6 kiloliter/yr $40.00 4 kiloliter/yr $20.00 2 kiloliter/yr 0 kiloliter/yr $- 2016 2022 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025 Produksi Biodiesel Model Produksi Biodiesel Referensi Dengan Biodiesel Tanpa Biodiesel Modus Referensi Produsen Biodiesel 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Jumlah Produsen Biodiesel Model Jumlah Produsen Biodiesel BAU 32
  33. 33. .. we also validates the key variables on GDP and agricultural production .. Sub-Model Ekonomi : Nilai Produksi Pertanian (USD) Nilai Produksi Domestik Bruto (USD) Produk Domestik Bruto PerbedaaanEconomic Sphere T21 Indonesia World Bank Hasil 2006 $ 229,018.64 $ 219,327.66 4.42% 2007 $ 247,375.08 $ 233,097.35 6.13% 2008 $ 253,366.27 $ 247,228.81 2.48% Agricultural Production PerbedaaanEconomic Sphere T21 Indonesia World Bank Hasil 2006 $ 31,500.72 $ 31,157.66 1.10% 2007 $ 33,767.00 $ 32,226.13 4.78% 2008 $ 36,225.87 $ 33,762.22 7.30% 33
  34. 34. .. and the key variables on population, forest land and total energi demand..Sub-Model Sosial-Teknologi : Populasi IndonesiaSub-Model Lingkungan : Total Lahan HutanSub-Model Energi Total Permintaan Energi Populasi PerbedaaanAspek Sosial T21 Indonesia UN Ecosoc Hasil 2006 219,210,292 221,936,080 1.23% 2007 223,199,430 224,645,990 0.64% 2008 227,172,106 227,323,560 0.07% 2009 231,094,107 229,952,620 0.50% 2010 234,919,243 232,517,000 1.03% Environmental Sphere 2006 2007 2008 2009 T21 Indonesia 866,236.00 852,279.97 836,752.62 819,088.11 Forest Land UN FAO Projection 866,236.00 847,522.00 840,741.82 834,015.89 Total Kebutuhan Energi Perbedaaan Energy Sphere T21 Indonesia Handbook ESDM Hasil 2006 538,514,397.37 538,453,524 0.01% 2007 582,389,558.64 576,827,000 0.96% 2008 614,832,910.93 643,691,000 4.48% 2009 630,507,616.78 656,564,820 3.97% 2010 721,556,811.56 715,655,654 0.82% 34
  35. 35. Agenda of the Presentations • Research Overviews and Methodology • Model Conceptualization and Model Formulation • Model Verification and Validation • Scenarios Development and Analysis 35
  36. 36. .. From the purpose of the research, we formulate these questions foranalysis … • How is the cost structure? • Has the current strategy of subsidy, TLCF, etc works? Insights on • What factors create more than one impact to Micro Level sustainability? biodieselmicro model The minimum condition for Micro Model to Works • Could the model evaluates the Government Promise of 3Pros with Biodiesel? Insights on • How is the behavior dynamics of the impacts? Macro Levelsustainabilitymacro model If the promise is correct, How? Government Roles: Direct vs Indirect Scenarios to Micro Model Switch Macro Model Results Highlight the Sustainability Without Biodiesel Scenario A Selected Dynamics Focus Direct Strategy Scenario B1 Indicators Indirect Strategy Scenario B2 Scenarios & Plausible, not just possible Analysis 36

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