How Young People Are Faring 2008
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How Young People Are Faring 2008

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Analysis of what kinds of income and education school leavers can expect

Analysis of what kinds of income and education school leavers can expect

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  • 1. How Young People are Faring 2008 19 September 2008
  • 2. Context 2008 Education Budget paper reports that 3 to 6 per cent of o young Australians experience a poor transition from school HYPAF provides the most up-to-date analysis of transition o How many struggle in transition? o Who struggles to make a smooth transition? o New Training and Reform Agenda o Target of 90% school completion by 2020 o How far to go? o
  • 3. Earning And Learning Among Teenagers 15 to 19 year-olds
  • 4. Earning and learning activities of teenagers Most teenagers are in full-time education or full-time work Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)
  • 5. Proportion of teenagers not earning or learning has been falling Matched by increased participation in education & training, including school, but not by an increase in full-time employment Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)
  • 6. 13% of teenagers are not in full-time education or full-time work Females are more likely than males to be in full-time o education. Among those not in full-time education, females at greater o risk than males of being unemployed, in part-time work or not in the labour force.
  • 7. Not earning or learning at age 19: levels vary by state/territory Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2006)
  • 8. Not earning or learning at age 19 is associated with school achievement Source: LSAY 2003 cohort
  • 9. Earning and learning at age 19 varies by location Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2006)
  • 10. Earning And Learning Among School Leavers
  • 11. Earning and learning activities of school leavers Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)
  • 12. Year 12 completion important to success in first year out o Not in full-time work or full-time education in year after leaving school: o 21% of Yr 12 completers o 47% of early school leavers
  • 13. Year 12 is important when entering the labour market Source: ABS Education and Work, Australia (2007)
  • 14. Transition activities vary by gender o Female school leavers more likely to enter higher education o Males more likely to be in VET, apprenticeships, and full- time work o Females more likely to be in marginal activities, such as part-time work or not being in the labour force
  • 15. Marginal attachment to the labour force falls as SES rises Source: Estimates derived from LSAY 98 cohort by Stephen Lamb
  • 16. Earning And Learning Among Young Adults 20 to 24 year-olds
  • 17. Earning and learning activities of young adults Full-time work 50.2% Part-time work 9.9% Seeking work 3.9% Not in labour force 7.6% Full-time education 28.4% Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)
  • 18. Proportions of young adults not in full-time education or full-time work have been falling Falls over the past decade have corresponded with a rise in full-time education but not in full-time work Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)
  • 19. Those from high SES backgrounds are more likely to be in full-time education Source: Estimates derived from LSAY 98 cohort by Stephen Lamb
  • 20. Young women at greater risk of marginalisation o While levels of less than full-time engagement have been falling for both males and females, young women continue to be at greater risk of marginalisation than young men (26% vs 17% in 2008) o Young women more likely than young men to be working part-time, or not in the labour force, while men more likely than women to be unemployed
  • 21. Educational Attainment
  • 22. 2006 Census: 71% of 19 year-olds & 75% of 24 year-olds had attained Year 12 or equivalent Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2006)
  • 23. Some gains since 2001 Attainment of Year 12 or an equivalent post-school qualification (Cert III or above) (%) 19 years 24 years 20-24 years 2001 2006 2001 2006 2001 2006 % % % % % % New South Wales 66.7 70.4 73.5 74.6 71.6 73.8 Victoria 67.7 74.4 75.6 78.3 74.2 78.2 Queensland 71.5 73.6 72.8 74.5 72.6 74.6 South Australia 62.5 66.2 69.3 71.5 67.9 70.6 Western Australia 65.1 68.6 69.8 71.3 69.0 71.2 Tasmania 56.8 62.0 59.6 67.2 59.6 67.2 Northern Territory 34.5 41.1 52.1 52.0 48.1 47.2 ACT 78.1 81.2 83.4 84.9 83.4 84.2 Australia 67.0 71.3 72.8 74.8 71.6 74.4 National figures mask state differences Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2001 and 2006)
  • 24. Still some way to go o To achieve 90 per cent attainment by 2020 will require nationwide improvement at double the rate measured between the 2001 and 2006 census o Some states and territories face greater challenges than others o Policy and funding must be targeted appropriately
  • 25. Social disadvantage promotes lower rates of attainment among some groups of young Australians Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2001 and 2006)
  • 26. Achievement, attainment and social background related o Achievement levels in school affect attainment o School achievement is highly correlated with social background o Policies aimed at improving Year 12 completion need to address the issue of social disadvantage
  • 27. Australia’s attainment levels reveal room to improve based on international standards o International comparison of levels of upper secondary attainment for 25-34 year-olds places Australia at about the average for OECD countries o Substantially lower than Korea, Sweden, US, Canada, NZ, Finland and Hungary, among others o Some evidence suggests that countries which offer more extensive, well-structured VET programs do better in promoting rates of school completion
  • 28. Improving VET may lead to increased school completion Some countries doing better than Australia do VET differently Source: Lamb (2007)
  • 29. Transition To The Labour Market
  • 30. Declining numbers seeking entry to the labour force without study Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)
  • 31. Very little full-time job growth in youth labour market o Fewer young people opting for the labour force rather than full-time education o Yet, full-time employment rates for those wanting work have remained fairly constant o This supports the view that full-time job opportunities for young Australians have fallen rather than grown over much of the last 15 years
  • 32. Unemployment has fallen, but more part-time than full-time job growth for young people Labour force status of 15 to 19 year-olds not in full-time education Source: ABS Labour Force Australia (2008)
  • 33. Smooth pathways to full-time work more often involve study & training o 62% of Yr 12 completers and 58% of early leavers are in full- time work in their 7th post-school year o Of these: o 88% of Yr 12 completers and 72% of early leavers engaged in education and training at some time after leaving school o Only 3% of all Yr 12 completers and 6% of all early leavers got a job immediately on leaving school and have been in full-time work ever since Source: Estimates derived from the Y95 cohort of LSAY by Stephen Lamb
  • 34. Seven years on, early school leavers remain disadvantaged Marginally attached to the labour force seven years after o leaving school: o 33% of early leavers o 20% of Yr 12 completers Unemployed or not in the labour force in 7th post-school o year and across most of seven-year period: o 4.3% of early leavers o 0.4% of all Year 12 completers
  • 35. Conclusions o 13% of teenagers and 21% of young adults are not engaged in full- time earning or learning o Early school leavers are at greater and ongoing risk of labour force marginalisation o Social disadvantage decreases likelihood of completing Year 12 o Much work needs to be done to meet new Year 12 completion targets by 2020 o Little growth in full-time employment opportunities for young people – more part-time work o Smooth transitions more often involve education and training
  • 36. Conclusions We have the right targets but much more needs to be done o in order to reach them…
  • 37. End 19 September 2008