Prof. Hendrik Speck - Attention Based Economies - the Economic Value of Google Scholar and Co. 9th International Bielefeld Conference. February 3 – 5, 2009, Bielefeld, Germany, Libraries, Archives, Online Media, Google, Business Model, Google Book Search, Google Scholar, Commercialization of Attention, user, content, libraries, media usage, media consumption, Internet, Home video, Video games, Television, Radio, Movies, Books, Magazines, Newspapers, Audio, access, constraints, barriers, limitations, content, linkage, quality, google, search, market share, growth, functionality, product diversification, objectives, business models, revenue, google scholar, sources, features, ranking, commercialisation, attention, advertising, keyword advertising, adwords, adsense, popularity, price

1. Attention Based Economies - the Economic Value of Google Scholar and Co. Prof. Hendrik Speck University of Applied Sciences Kaiserslautern 9 th International Bielefeld Conference. February 3 – 5, 2009. Bielefeld, Germany

2. 1. Libraries, Archives, Online Media 2. Google Business Model 3. Google Book Search / Google Scholar 4. Commercialization of Attention 5. Implications/Conclusion Introduction

3. Libraries, Archives, and Online Media

4. 1 User (Reader and Online) 2 Content (Authors and Publisher) 3 Libraries (Private/Public/Scientific) 4 Google (Scholar and Book Search) The Four Horsemen. Search Engine Industry

5. Media Usage Media Usage in Minutes per Day. United States. 1999-2009 Source: Veronis, Suhler & Associates. Communications Industry Forecast. 2006, Available: http://www.vss.com/pubs/pubs_home.html or http://ww2.wpp.com/WPPDocuments/WPP_AR_2005_What_we_think.pdf 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 * 2007 * 2008 * 2009 * Television 3h 54 4h 1 4h 5 4h 10 4h 14 4h 14 4h 14 4h 16 4h 16 4h 17 4h 17 Radio 2h 34 2h 35 2h 36 2h 43 2h 45 2h 42 2h 41 2h 40 2h 40 2h 42 2h 42 Newspapers 33.7 33 32.4 31.9 31.6 30.9 30.1 29.4 28.8 27.9 27.1 Audio 46.2 42.4 37.6 32.9 30.2 30.4 29.4 28.8 28.8 27.8 27.1 Internet 10.7 17.1 21.5 24.2 27 28.9 30.1 31.2 32.1 32.9 33.4 Magazines 22 22.2 20.9 20.5 19.9 20.4 20.4 20.1 20.1 20.1 19.9 Books 19.2 17.6 17.4 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 Video games 9.5 10.5 10.8 11.5 12.3 12.7 12.8 13.5 14.1 15.3 15.8 Home video 6.7 7.1 7.7 9.4 9.9 11 12.5 13.8 15 15.6 16.3 Movies 2.1 2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Interactive & Wireless – – – 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 4.3 5.3 6.9 Total 8h 59 9h 8 9h 12 9h 24 9h 30 9h 32 9h 32 9h 35 9h 38 9h 43 9h 44

6. Internet Home video Video games Television Radio Movies Books Magazines Newspapers Audio Media Usage Media Usage in Hours per Year. United States. 1999-2009 Source: Veronis, Suhler & Associates. Communications Industry Forecast. 2006, Available: http://www.vss.com/pubs/pubs_home.html or http://ww2.wpp.com/WPPDocuments/WPP_AR_2005_What_we_think.pdf -10 % -8 % -9 % +212 % +141 % +66 % -5 % -10 % -41 % -20 %

7. Search Engine Usage Xxx libraries vs internet vs search engines Organization: Decentralized Global Access Bandwidth Constraints Time Constraints: Time Required for Transmission Instant Access/ Retrieval Delay/ Content Type Access: Global Technological Barrier Fast Distribution Organization: Centralized Local Access Physical Limitations Time Constraints: Time Required for Search, Access, and Retrieval Retrieval Delay Access: Membership, Payments, Structure Social, Religious, Regional Barriers Censorship, Surveillance Libraries. Online Media. Comparison.

8. Search Engine Usage Xxx libraries vs internet vs search engines Content: Dynamic Flexible Updatable Linkage: Full-text Network Quality: No Editorial Filter Content Mixed/ Media Competency Cheap Content: Static Fixed Outdated Linkage: Keyword Only Low Linkage Quality: Content Selection Quality Content Expensive Libraries. Online Media. Comparison.

9. Google Business Model

10. Search Engine History Google Inc. 1999

11. 23.4 % Search Engine Market WebHits. July 2001 (Germany) O THERS 11.9 % 16.9 % 7.4 % 1.2 % AOL Suche 0.9% Dino 0.8% Abacho 0.7% alltheweb.com 0.7% www.search.ch 0.5% AOL Netfind 0.4% AOL Search 0.4% Excite 0.4% excite.com 0.3% Hotbot 0.3% goto.com 0.2% acoon.de 0.2% 6.1 % 8.7 % 4.5 % 1.5 % 7.1 % 5.5 % 5.8 % Source: WebHits.de. Web Barometer. July 2001, Available: http://www.webhits.de/deutsch/webstats.html

12. 42.7 % Search Engine Market WebHits. February 2002 (Germany) O THERS 9.0 % 9.7 % 1.1 % 1.2 % Dino 0.5% reisevista.de 0.4% Abacho 0.3% AOL Search 0.3% www.search.ch 0.3% alltheweb.com 0.3% Hotbot 0.2% directhit.com 0.1% ixquick.com 0.1% excite.com 0.1% 5.0 % 8.5 % 3.8 % 1.7 % 3.8 % 5.5 % 3.9 % 4.1 % Source: WebHits.de. Web Barometer. February 2002, Available: http://www.webhits.de/deutsch/webstats.html

13. 62.2 % Search Engine Market WebHits. February 2003 (Germany) O THERS 7.3 % 9.2 % 1.3 % 1.4 % 3.4 % 2.5 % 1.7 % 1.6 % 4.4 % 2.7 % Directory 2.3 % Bellnet 0.6% www.search.ch 0.5% AllesKlar 0.4% DMOZ 0.3% AOL Search 0.2% Dino 0.2% Austronaut 0.2% die-reise.de 0.2% netscape.de/suche 0.2% alltheweb.com 0.2% Source: WebHits.de. Web Barometer. February 2003, Available: http://www.webhits.de/deutsch/webstats.html

14. 73.0 % Search Engine Market WebHits. February 2004 (Germany) O THERS 5.3 % 6.1 % 1.1 % 1.3 % fireball.de 0.7% Web.de directory 0.6% AllesKlar 0.5% Bellnet 0.5% DMOZ 0.3% suche.freenet.de 0.2% search.bluewin.ch 0.2% search.com 0.2% netscape.de/suche 0.2% www.search.ch 0.2% 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.1 % 1.3 % 5.0 % Source: WebHits.de. Web Barometer. February 2004, Available: http://www.webhits.de/deutsch/webstats.html

15. 78.0 % Search Engine Market WebHits. February 2005 (Germany) O THERS 4.8 % 5.9 % 4.8 % 1.6 % Lycos 0.8% Meta.Ger 0.7% Altavista 0.6% Web.de Directory 0.5% fireball.de 0.5% DMOZ 0.2% www.search.ch 0.2% suche.freenet.de 0.2% search.com 0.2% Bellnet 0.2% AllesKlar 0.2% 2.4 % 1.8 % Source: WebHits.de. Web Barometer. February 2005, Available: http://www.webhits.de/deutsch/webstats.html

16. 84.0 % Search Engine Market WebHits. March 2006 (Germany) O THERS 4.4 % 4.4 % 4.8 % 2.4 % Lycos 0.6% Altavista 0.5% T-Online 0.5% WEB.DE 0.4% suche.freenet.de 0.4% Meta.Ger 0.3% AllesKlar 0.3% arcor.de 0.3% Web.de directory0.2% search.com 0.2% fireball.de 0.2% DMOZ 0.1% Source: WebHits.de. Web Barometer. March 2006, Available: http://www.webhits.de/deutsch/webstats.html

17. 86.8 % Search Engine Market WebHits. February 2007 (Germany) O THERS 2.6 % 3.3 % 3.7 % 1.9 % Lycos 0.6% WEB.DE 0.5% suche.freenet.de 0.3% arcor.de 0.3% Altavista 0.3% Meta.Ger 0.2% AllesKlar 0.2% search.com 0.2% fireball.de 0.2% WEB.DE Verz. 0.2% DMOZ 0.1% ask.com 0.1% Source: WebHits.de. Web Barometer. February 2007, Available: http://www.webhits.de/deutsch/webstats.html 1.7 %

18. 89.2 % Search Engine Market WebHits. March 2008 (Germany) O THERS 2.3 % 3.2 % 3.2 % 2.1 % AOL 0.8% ask.com 0.4% arcor.de 0.2% WEB.DE 0.2% suche.freenet.de 0.2% Lycos 0.2% AllesKlar 0.2% Altavista 0.2% Meta.Ger 0.1% search.com 0.1% Flix.de 0.1% Fireball.de 0.1% DMOZ 0.1% Source: WebHits.de. Web Barometer. March 2008, Available: http://www.webhits.de/deutsch/webstats.html

19. Click Share Percentage. AOL and WebHits. July 2006 (Germany) Search Engine Market Source: AOL Research. 500k User Queries Sampled Over 3 Months. Available: http://research.aol.com/pmwiki/pmwiki.php Others Total 1. 36.20% 1.73% 1.56% 2.79% 42.29% 2. 10.20% 0.49% 0.44% 0.79% 11.92% 3. 7.22% 0.35% 0.31% 0.56% 8.44% 4. 5.15% 0.25% 0.22% 0.40% 6.02% 5. 4.15% 0.20% 0.18% 0.32% 4.85% 6. 3.41% 0.16% 0.15% 0.26% 3.98% 7. 2.88% 0.14% 0.12% 0.22% 3.37% 8. 2.55% 0.12% 0.11% 0.20% 2.98% 9. 2.41% 0.12% 0.10% 0.19% 2.82% 10. 2.54% 0.12% 0.11% 0.20% 2.97% >10. 8.87% 0.42% 0.38% 0.68% 10.36%

20. Clicks per Month for “Hotel Berlin”. AOL and WebHits. July 2006 (Germany) Search Engine Market Source: AOL Research. 500k User Queries Sampled Over 3 Months. Available: http://research.aol.com/pmwiki/pmwiki.php Others Total 1. 66,812 3,200 2,888 5,151 78,051 2. 18.832 902 814 1,452 22,000 3. 13,334 639 576 1,028 15,577 4. 9,511 456 411 733 11,111 5. 7,662 367 331 591 8,951 6. 6,288 301 272 485 7,346 7. 5,324 255 230 411 6,220 8. 4,708 225 203 363 5,500 9. 4,455 213 193 344 5,205 10. 4,692 225 203 362 5,481 >10. 16,367 784 707 1,262 19,121

21. Growth Rates Change vs. Year Ago. comScore. February 2006 (United States) 49% 42% 36% 9% 11% Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Okt-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 46% 30% 28% 22% 26% 20% 12% 5% Source: comScore. Search Query Annual Growth Rates. February 2006, Available: http://www.comscore.com/cms/displaycontent.asp?id=764&suffix=pdf Search Engine Industry

22. Search Engine Industry Daily Search Queries in China in Million/Day. iResearch. 2002 to 2010. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 24 80.8 188.4 406.5 729 1050 1,440 1,890 2,400 Source: iResearch. China Internet Search Market Report. 2005. Available: http://english.iresearch.com.cn/downloadfile.asp?id=404

23. Search Engine Industry Growth Rate of Daily Search Queries. iResearch. 2002 to 2010. (China) 133.2% 236.7% 44.0% 2004 115.8% 79.3% 37.1% 31.3% 27% Source: iResearch. China Internet Search Market Report. 2005. Available: http://english.iresearch.com.cn/downloadfile.asp?id=404 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003

24. 1 Search/Advanced Search 2 Spell Checker 3 Translation 4 Stock Quotes 5 Street Maps 6 Calculator 7 Currency Conversion 8 Definitions Search Functionality. Google Web Search I/II Search Engine Industry

25. 9 Phone Book 10 Travel Information 11 Cached Links 12 Movie Information 13 Music Information 14 Weather 15 Questions and Answers 16 Search by Number Search Functionality. Google Web Search II/II Search Engine Industry

26. Anatomy of a Business Model Product Diversification of Google Inc. Checkout Chrome, Pack, Android IGoogle, Tool- bar, Note- book, Health, Finance, RSS, Docs, Cal Web Images, News, Products, Blogs, Movies Summer of Code Mobile, Local, SMS Blog, Talk, Groups, Orkut, Video, Picasa, Youtube, Book, Scholar Earth, Maps, Sketchup ( )

27. Anatomy of a Business Model Strategic Objectives Payment Browser, Applications, Phones, Interfaces, Standardisation Personalisation Search Advanced Search Recruitment and Standardisation Mobile and Localisation Content, Communication and Social Graph Mapping Checkout Chrome, Pack, Android IGoogle, Tool- bar, Note- book, Health, Finance, RSS, Docs, Cal Web Images, News, Products, Blogs, Movies Summer of Code Mobile, Local, SMS Blog, Talk, Groups, Orkut, Video, Picasa, Youtube, Book, Scholar Earth, Maps, Sketchup ( )

28. 1 Subscription/Fee 2 Direct Placement 3 Pay for Inclusion (PFI) 4 Merchandising 5 Advertisement (PPV/PPC/PPP) 6 Product Placement 7 Advertising/Partner Networks Search Engine Business Models. I/II Search Engine Industry

29. Search Engine Business Models. II/II 8 Affiliate Partnerships 9 Value Added Services (Audio/Video) 10 User Data 11 User Generated Content/Web 2.0 12 Premium Services 13 Consulting/Research 14 Licenses/Search Appliances Search Engine Industry

30. Google . Sources of Revenue in Thousand USD. 2003 - 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Google Web Sites 792,063 1,589,032 3,377,060 6,332,797 10,624,700 Google Network Sites 628,600 1,554,256 2,687,942 4,159,831 5,787,900 Advertising Total 1,420,663 3,143,288 6,065,002 10,492,628 16,412,600 Licensing 45,271 45,935 73,558 112,289 181,400 Revenues Total 1,465,934 3,189,223 6,138,560 10,604,917 16,594,000 Search Engine Industry Source: Google. Annual Report 2005. United States Securities and Exchange Commission. March 16, 2006, Form 10-K, Available: http://investor.google.com/pdf/2005_Google_AnnualReport.pdf and Google. Annual Report 2006. United States Securities and Exchange Commission. March 1, 2007, Form 10-K, Available: http://investor.google.com/pdf/2006_Google_AnnualReport.pdf and Google. Annual Report 2007. United States Securities and Exchange Commission. February 15, 2008. Available: http://investor.google.com/documents/2007_Google_AnnualReport.html

31. Google . Sources of Revenue in Percent. 2003 - 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Google Web Sites 54% 50% 55% 60% 64% Google Network Sites 43% 49% 44% 39% 35% Advertising Total 97% 99% 99% 99% 99% Licensing 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% Search Engine Industry Source: Google. Annual Report 2005. United States Securities and Exchange Commission. March 16, 2006, Form 10-K, Available: http://investor.google.com/pdf/2005_Google_AnnualReport.pdf and Google. Annual Report 2006. United States Securities and Exchange Commission. March 1, 2007, Form 10-K, Available: http://investor.google.com/pdf/2006_Google_AnnualReport.pdf and Google. Annual Report 2007. United States Securities and Exchange Commission. February 15, 2008. Available: http://investor.google.com/documents/2007_Google_AnnualReport.html

32. Google Book Search / Google Scholar

33. Sources: Peer-reviewed papers, theses, books, abstracts and articles, from academic publishers, professional societies, preprint repositories, universities and other scholarly organizations. Features: Find papers, abstracts and citations Locate the complete paper through libraries or online Ranking: According to relevance: full text of article, author, publication in which the article appears, and citations in other scholarly literature Google Scholar

34. Two Sources: Library Project/ The Partner Program Viewing Options: Snippet view / Preview / Paid Full View Access Options: Online Access / Buying or borrowing actual books / Library and university access Three types of books: In-copyright and in-print books / In-copyright but out-of-print books / Out-of-copyright books Google Book Search

35. Google Book Search / Google Scholar Google Search. Life of a Tea Bush.

40. Commercialization of Attention

41. Search Result Page with Advertising. Google Adwords. Online Marketing

42. Keyword Estimates. Google AdWords. Source: Google Adwords. Available: https://adwords.google.com Online Marketing

54. 1 Adwords / Adsense 2 Affiliate Fees / Book Sales 3 Subscription Services 4 Content Revenue Streams Google Book Search and Google Scholar

55. Implications

56. 507 m 2 per 1000 users 4.5 Employees per 1,000 users 127.496€ Expenses for Information and Literature Acquisitions per 1,000 users 25% Electronic Archives 73.9 Business Hours per Week Bibliotheksindex. Libraries Source: Bibliotheksindex (BIX). 2007. http://www.bix-bibliotheksindex.de/

57. 2005 1,101.7 Mio. 13.4€ 2004 1,272.5 Mio. 15.4€ 2003 1,371.7 Mio. 16.7€ 2000 1,305,6 Mio. 15,9€ 1995 1,058.3 Mio. 13,0€ Library Spending per Year and Citizen Libraries in Germany. Source: Statistisches Bundesamt. Kulturfinanzbericht 2008. September 2008, Available: http://www.statistik-portal.de/Statistik-Portal/kulturfinanzbericht_2008.pdf, Statistisches Bundesamt. 2005: Kulturausgaben der öffentlichen Hand bei 8 Milliarden Euro Press Release. No. 296. July 20, 2006. Available: http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/DE/Presse/pm/ 2006/07/PD06__296__216,templateId=renderPrint.psml, and Statistisches Bundesamt. 2003: Kulturausgaben der öffentlichen Hand bei 8,2 Milliarden Euro. Press Release. No. 201 May 5, 2004, Available: http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/ Internet/DE/Presse/pm/2004/05/PD04__201__213,templateId=renderPrint.psml

58. Google . Sources of Revenue in Thousand USD. 2003 - 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Google Web Sites 792,063 1,589,032 3,377,060 6,332,797 10,624,700 Google Network Sites 628,600 1,554,256 2,687,942 4,159,831 5,787,900 Advertising Total 1,420,663 3,143,288 6,065,002 10,492,628 16,412,600 Licensing 45,271 45,935 73,558 112,289 181,400 Revenues Total 1,465,934 3,189,223 6,138,560 10,604,917 16,594,000 Search Engine Industry Source: Google. Annual Report 2005. United States Securities and Exchange Commission. March 16, 2006, Form 10-K, Available: http://investor.google.com/pdf/2005_Google_AnnualReport.pdf and Google. Annual Report 2006. United States Securities and Exchange Commission. March 1, 2007, Form 10-K, Available: http://investor.google.com/pdf/2006_Google_AnnualReport.pdf and Google. Annual Report 2007. United States Securities and Exchange Commission. February 15, 2008. Available: http://investor.google.com/documents/2007_Google_AnnualReport.html

59. 1 User (Open Access) 2 Content (Monetarization and Branding) 3 Libraries (Audience, Preservation, Mission) 4 Google (Reach and Advertising) Players and Interests Search Engine Industry

60. 1. Increased Funding 2. Revenue Participation 3. Open Source / Open Content 4. Network Concentric Model Creative Commons / Net Review Attention as Currency Outlook

61. End

62. Thank you for your attention. I will gladly answer your questions. Prof. Hendrik Speck contact (at) hendrikspeck [dot] com University of Applied Sciences Kaiserslautern Information Architecture Lab Amerikastrasse 1 66482 Zweibrücken Tel: +49 6332 914 360 Skype: hendrikspeck Conclusion Contact Information

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