(Xrisk 101 )
Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates
Heath  Rezabek,  MLIS
Icarus  Interstellar  /  Long  Now  Foundat...
ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission
(Xrisk 101 )
Xrisk Fundamentals
Vessel Project Update
Heath Rezabek
Xrisk ...
ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission
Creating  a  legacy  for  the  human  species
Backing  up  the  Earth’s  b...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
Existential Risk
Existential  Risk  denotes,  simply  enough,  risks  ...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
An  existential  risk  is  one  that  threatens  the  premature  extin...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
( Xrisk )
Xrisk  has  become  a  popular  shorthand  for  this  whole ...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
( Xrisk )
One  of  the  most  popular  images  of  Xrisk  today  is  t...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
Starship  Congress  has  its  eye  on  some  pretty  long-­‐term  goal...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
To  calculate  the  loss  associated  with  an  existential  catastrop...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
How  many  human  lives  have  ever  been?
First  we  need  a  standar...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
107.6  billion  people
(Wolfram  Alpha,  2013)
Current  Global  Popula...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
107.6  billion  people
(Wolfram  Alpha,  2013)
≈  100  billion  neuron...
100 billion lives
100  billion  lives.
...    One  Pale  Blue  Dot.
100 billion lives
≈    1  Pale  Blue  Dot.
One  Pale  Blue  Dot.
...  Here’s  Carl  Sagan  on  that  famous  image  of  Ea...
≈    1  Pale  Blue  Dot.
PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990
Here’s  Carl  Sagan  on  that  famous  image  of  Earth  from  af...
That's here. That's home. That's us.
On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever
heard of, every human b...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
How  many  human  lives  might  there  yet  be,
in  the  fullness  of ...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
10  million  billion
10  000  000  000  000  000
-­‐  Nick  Bostrom,  ...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
1052
Not to Scale.
10  000  000  000  000  000  000  000  000  
000  0...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
Statistically,  reducing  the  chances  of  Xrisk  by  
a  mere  1  bi...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
...is  worth  100  billion  billion  lives.
1020
Not to Scale.
...is  ...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
An  existential  risk  is  one  that  threatens  the  premature  
exti...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
An  existential  risk  is  one  that  threatens  the  premature  
exti...
STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission
Permanent  Stagnation
Humanity  survives  but  never  reaches  technol...
Zombies VS Vampires
Permanent  Stagnation                                              Flawed  Realization
Zombie
(CC-BY) ...
EDEN PROJECT: TROPICAL BIOME / Photo via Steve Keiretsu (CC-BY-1.0) 2001
These  two  types  of  Xrisk  cut  to  the  heart...
From ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man © Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission
If  we  work  to  prototype  here  an...
From ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man © Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission
Perhaps  advanced,  resilient  techno...
From ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man © Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission
What  would  such  projects  be  like...
Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008
Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008LILYPAD / Floa...
Biological Cache
(Library of Life)
Cultural Cache
Scientific CacheDIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)
Photo via...
James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010
Research Labs
(Inwards-Facing ...
ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission
Learning Labs
(Outwards-Facing Facilities)
But  in  the  near  term,  thro...
Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008
Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008LILYPAD / Floa...
Dome (CC-BY-NC) Tak
Desert-Qatar (CC-0) Public Domain (CC-BY-NC-ND) M.C.Chavez
(CC-BY-SA) Decade Null
Moon (NASA/Apollo) 1...
The  Vessel  project  has  several  routes  forwards.
My  plans  for  2014  include  a  global  survey  of  existing  long...
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ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission
(Xrisk 101 )
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Xrisk 101: (2013) Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates (w/Notes)

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This is my half of a session prepared for presentation at Starship Congress 2013, August 15-18. This version includes spoken script.

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Xrisk 101: (2013) Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates (w/Notes)

  1. 1. (Xrisk 101 ) Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates Heath  Rezabek,  MLIS Icarus  Interstellar  /  Long  Now  Foundation  (Intern) hrezabek@icarusinterstellar.org  /  heath.rezabek@gmail.com J.  N.  Nielsen john.n.nielsen@gmail.com Starship  Congress  2013 August  15-­‐18,  2013.    Dallas,  Texas. ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission Xrisk  101:  Existential  Risk  for  Interstellar  Advocates Heath  Rezabek Nick  Nielsen Starship  Congress  2013 ...  (Xrisk  101)  is  divided  into  two  parts.    
  2. 2. ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission (Xrisk 101 ) Xrisk Fundamentals Vessel Project Update Heath Rezabek Xrisk and Far Future Civilization Nick Nielsen (Xrisk  101)  is  divided  into  two  parts.     In  the  first,  I  will  cover  the  fundamentals  of  Xrisk,  and  update  on  the  Vessel  project,  a  framework   for  preserving  the  cultural,  scientific,  and  biological  record. In  the  second,  Nick  Nielsen  will  explore  the  longer  term  implications  of  overcoming  Xrisk  for  the   future  of  civilization. ...  Though  discussed  in  other  terms,  Xrisk  was  a  key  concern  and  priority  for  the  DARPA  2011   starship  workshop.  
  3. 3. ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission Creating  a  legacy  for  the  human  species Backing  up  the  Earth’s  biosphere Enabling  long-­‐term  survival   in  the  face  of  catastrophic  disasters  on  Earth -­‐  DARPA  2011  starship  workshop  report Though  discussed  in  other  terms,  Xrisk  was  a  key  concern  and  priority  for  the  DARPA  2011   starship  workshop.     In  its  January  2011  report,  that  workshop  prioritized  “creating  a  legacy  for  the  human  species,   backing  up  the  Earth’s  biosphere,  and  enabling  long-­‐term  survival  in  the  face  of  catastrophic   disasters  on  Earth."   At  the  100YSS  2012  Symposium,  I  presented  a  synthesis  of  strategies  to  address  all  three  of  these   goals  at  once,  called  Vessel.    Before  updating  on  the  Vessel  project,  I  want  to  talk  first  about   Existential  Risk,  what  it  includes,  and  why  we  should  prioritize  finding  ways  to  meet  its   challenge. ...  Existential  Risk  denotes,  simply  enough,  risks  to  our  existence.    
  4. 4. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission Existential Risk Existential  Risk  denotes,  simply  enough,  risks  to  our  existence.    Existential  Risk  encompasses   both  Extinction  Risk  and  Global  Catastrophic  Risk.     ...  Nick  Bostrom,  Director  for  the  Future  of  Humanity  Institute,  defines  Existential  Risk  this  way   in  a  key  paper  we’ll  cover  throughout...
  5. 5. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission An  existential  risk  is  one  that  threatens  the  premature  extinction   of  Earth-­‐originating  intelligent  life  or  the  permanent  and  drastic   destruction  of  its  potential  for  desirable  future  development.   -­‐  Nick  Bostrom,  Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  Global  Priority  (2013) goo.gl/LhxQ1 Nick  Bostrom,  Director  for  the  Future  of  Humanity  Institute,  defines  Existential  Risk  this  way  in   a  key  paper  we’ll  cover  throughout: An  existential  risk  is  one  that  threatens  the  premature  extinction  of  Earth-­‐originating  intelligent   life,  or  the  permanent  and  drastic  destruction  of  its  potential  for  desirable  future  development.   As  we  can  see,  small  personal  risks  are  down  in  the  lower  left,  while  situations  of  widespread   suffering  such  as  global  tyranny  are  in  the  middle  as  Global  Catastrophic  Risks.    Finally,  the   destruction  of  life’s  long  term  potential  defines  Existential  Risk,  in  the  upper  right. ...  Xrisk  has  become  a  popular  shorthand  for  this  whole  spectrum  of  risks.    We  can  see  signs  of  it   emerging  as  a  priority  for  various  space-­‐related  efforts.
  6. 6. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission ( Xrisk ) Xrisk  has  become  a  popular  shorthand  for  this  whole  spectrum  of  risks.    We  can  see  signs  of  it   emerging  as  a  priority  for  various  space-­‐related  efforts. ...  One  of  the  most  popular  images  of  Xrisk  today  is  that  of  a  sterilizing  asteroid  strike.    
  7. 7. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission ( Xrisk ) One  of  the  most  popular  images  of  Xrisk  today  is  that  of  a  sterilizing  asteroid  strike.    And   asteroids  play  a  big  role  in  some  of  the  most  visible  efforts  in  space  industry  today,  such  as  the   ARKYD  telescope  or  NASA’s  asteroid  initiative.    Specialists  sometimes  see  unpredicted  cultural   or  technological  Xrisks  as  even  more  urgent. ...  Starship  Congress  has  its  eye  on  some  pretty  long-­‐term  goals.    And  Earth  provides  our  only   space  and  time  to  work  towards  them.
  8. 8. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission Starship  Congress  has  its  eye  on  some  pretty  long-­‐term  goals.    And  Earth  provides  our  only  space   and  time  to  work  towards  them.    On  that  basis  alone,  the  challenge  of  Xrisk  must  be  answered. But  setting  aside  our  own  goals,  what  are  the  stakes?      How  many  lives  have  there  been,  or  could   yet  be  if  extinction  is  avoided?    Nick  Bostrom  has  run  some  interesting  numbers. ...  To  calculate  the  loss  associated  with  an  existential  catastrophe,  we  must  consider  how  much   value  would  come  to  exist  in  its  absence.  
  9. 9. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission To  calculate  the  loss  associated  with  an  existential  catastrophe,   we  must  consider  how  much  value  would  come  to  exist  in  its   absence.   It  turns  out  that  the  ultimate  potential  for  Earth-­‐originating   intelligent  life  is  literally  astronomical.   -­‐  Nick  Bostrom,  Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  Global  Priority  (2013) To  calculate  the  loss  associated  with  an  existential  catastrophe,  we  must  consider  how  much   value  would  come  to  exist  in  its  absence.   It  turns  out  that  the  ultimate  potential  for  Earth-­‐originating  intelligent  life  is  literally   astronomical.   How  so? ...  First  we  need  a  standard  for  measurement.    Let’s  start  with  the  total  number  of  humans  ever   to  have  lived  on  Earth.
  10. 10. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission How  many  human  lives  have  ever  been? First  we  need  a  standard  for  measurement.    Let’s  start  with  the  total  number  of  humans  ever  to   have  lived  on  Earth. ...  Wolfram  Alpha  lists  the  total  world  population  as  107.6  billion  people  over  time.    The  current   global  population  is  7.13  billion.
  11. 11. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission 107.6  billion  people (Wolfram  Alpha,  2013) Current  Global  Population 7.13  billion  people (Wolfram  Alpha,  2013) Wolfram  Alpha  lists  the  total  world  population  as  107.6  billion  people  over  time.    The  current   global  population  is  7.13  billion. ...  If  we  leave  out  the  current  population,  we  get  100  billion  -­‐-­‐  About  the  number  of  neurons  in  a   single  human  brain.
  12. 12. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission 107.6  billion  people (Wolfram  Alpha,  2013) ≈  100  billion  neurons in  the  human  brain (Wolfram  Alpha,  2013) If  we  leave  out  the  current  population,  we  get  100  billion  -­‐-­‐  About  the  number  of  neurons  in  a   single  human  brain. ...  100  billion  lives.  
  13. 13. 100 billion lives 100  billion  lives. ...    One  Pale  Blue  Dot.
  14. 14. 100 billion lives ≈    1  Pale  Blue  Dot. One  Pale  Blue  Dot. ...  Here’s  Carl  Sagan  on  that  famous  image  of  Earth  from  afar:
  15. 15. ≈    1  Pale  Blue  Dot. PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990 Here’s  Carl  Sagan  on  that  famous  image  of  Earth  from  afar: Consider  again  that  dot.   ...  That's  here.  That's  home.  That's  us.
  16. 16. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. ~ Carl Sagan in Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space Consider again that dot. PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990 That's  here.  That's  home.  That's  us. On  it  everyone  you  love,  everyone  you  know,  everyone  you  ever  heard  of,  every  human  being   who  ever  was,  lived  out  their  lives. 100  billion  lives  is  our  basic  unit  of  measure. ...  Now;  How  much  value  would  come  to  exist  if  our  future  potential  is  never  cut  short?
  17. 17. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission How  many  human  lives  might  there  yet  be, in  the  fullness  of  time? Now;  How  much  value  would  come  to  exist  if  our  future  potential  is  never  cut  short? ...  10^16  -­‐-­‐  10  million  billion  -­‐-­‐  is  one  estimate  of  the  potential  number  of  future  lives  on  Earth   alone,
  18. 18. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission 10  million  billion 10  000  000  000  000  000 -­‐  Nick  Bostrom,  Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  Global  Priority  (2013) 1016 Not to Scale. 10^16  -­‐-­‐  10  million  billion  -­‐-­‐  is  one  estimate  of  the  potential  number  of  future  lives  on  Earth   alone,  if  only  1  billion  lived  on  it  sustainably  for  the  1  billion  years  it’s  projected  to  remain   habitable. But  if  we  consider  the  possibility  of  the  spread  of  life  beyond  Earth,  or  synthetic  minds  and  lives   yet  to  come,  Bostrom’s  estimate  grows  vast: ...  10^52  potential  lives  to  come.    100  million    x    100  billion    x    100  billion    x    100  billion    x    100   billion
  19. 19. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission 1052 Not to Scale. 10  000  000  000  000  000  000  000  000   000  000  000  000  000  000  000  000  000 -­‐  Nick  Bostrom,  Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  Global  Priority  (2013) 100  million    x    100  billion    x    100  billion     x    100  billion    x    100  billion 10^52  potential  lives  to  come.    100  million    x    100  billion    x    100  billion    x    100  billion    x    100  billion ...  This  means  that  reducing  the  chances  of  Xrisk  by  a  mere  1  billionth  of  1  billionth  of  1  percent...
  20. 20. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission Statistically,  reducing  the  chances  of  Xrisk  by   a  mere  1  billionth  of  1  billionth  of  1  percent... Not to Scale. This  means  that  reducing  the  chances  of  Xrisk  by  a  mere  1  billionth  of  1  billionth  of  1  percent... ... ...  is  worth  100  billion  billion  lives.
  21. 21. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission ...is  worth  100  billion  billion  lives. 1020 Not to Scale. ...is  worth  100  billion  billion  lives. With  just  a  slight  shift  in  priorities,  we  can  hugely  boost  the  chances  of  life  achieving  its  full   future  potential  by  working  to  enhance  its  prospects  today. ...  Let’s  look  at  Bostrom’s  definition  again:
  22. 22. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission An  existential  risk  is  one  that  threatens  the  premature   extinction  of  Earth-­‐originating  intelligent  life   or  the  permanent  and  drastic  destruction  of  its   potential  for  desirable  future  development.   -­‐  Nick  Bostrom,  Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  Global  Priority  (2013) Let’s  look  at  Bostrom’s  definition  again: An  existential  risk  is  one  that  threatens  the  premature  extinction  of  Earth-­‐originating  intelligent   life,  or  the  permanent  and  drastic  destruction  of  its  potential  for  desirable  future  development.   ...  Notice  that  fragment  -­‐  “...  destruction  of  its  potential  for  desirable  future  development.”
  23. 23. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission An  existential  risk  is  one  that  threatens  the  premature   extinction  of  Earth-­‐originating  intelligent  life   or  the  permanent  and  drastic  destruction  of  its   potential  for  desirable  future  development.   -­‐  Nick  Bostrom,  Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  Global  Priority  (2013) Survival  alone  is  not  enough. A  surviving  society  may  be  brutalized,  stagnant,   or  diminished  irreparably,  unable  to  aspire  or  to   build  itself  anew. Notice  that  fragment  -­‐  “...  destruction  of  its  potential  for  desirable  future  development.” Survival  alone  is  not  enough.    In  some  cases,  a  surviving  society  may  be  brutalized,  stagnant,  or   diminished  irreparably,  unable  to  aspire  or  to  build  itself  anew.     This  brings  us  to  two  subtypes  of  Xrisk  as  crucial  as  extinction  itself. ...  They  both  fall  into  the  realm  of  Global  Catastrophic  Risks.    
  24. 24. STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission Permanent  Stagnation Humanity  survives  but  never  reaches  technological  maturity.     Subclasses:  Unrecovered  Collapse,  Plateauing,  Recurrent  Collapse Flawed  Realization Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  but  in  a  way  that  is  dismally   and  irremediably  flawed.       Subclasses:  Unconsummated  Realization,  Ephemeral  Realization They  both  fall  into  the  realm  of  Global  Catastrophic  Risks.     Permanent  Stagnation  -­‐  Humanity  survives  but  never  reaches  technological  maturity  or   interstellar  civilization.   Flawed  Realization  -­‐  Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  but  in  a  way  that  is  irredeemably   flawed.   Pop  culture  has  a  working  knowledge  of  them  both,  in  different  terms.     ...  Nick  and  I  joke  that  it’s  a  bit  like  Zombies  vs  Vampires.  
  25. 25. Zombies VS Vampires Permanent  Stagnation                                              Flawed  Realization Zombie (CC-BY) Jarrett Matthews Vampire (CC-BY) Jarrett Matthews Nick  and  I  joke  that  it’s  a  bit  like  Zombies  vs  Vampires. Permanent  Stagnation  and  Flawed  Realization.  Losing  our  capability  as  a  civilization,  or   enduring  only  in  a  deeply  flawed  form.  These  two  risks  fill  our  dystopian  movies. But  because  popular  culture  understands  them,  we  can  learn  valuable  lessons  about  our   messaging  and  priorities  by  understanding  them  too. ...  These  two  types  of  Xrisk  cut  to  the  heart  of  what  it  means  to  achieve  our  full  potential.
  26. 26. EDEN PROJECT: TROPICAL BIOME / Photo via Steve Keiretsu (CC-BY-1.0) 2001 These  two  types  of  Xrisk  cut  to  the  heart  of  what  it  means  to  achieve  our  full  potential. There  is  a  vast  opportunity  between  these  risks,  because  of  the  many  advances  needed  to  achieve   an  interstellar  future  –  and  because  of  the  benefits  such  advances  could  have  for  life  on  Earth  -­‐-­‐   in  areas  such  as  habitat  design,  energy  infrastructure,  biotechnology,  as  well  as  advanced   computing,  networking,  and  archival. ...  If  we  work  to  prototype  here  and  now,  solving  real-­‐world  problems  along  the  way,  all  will   benefit.  
  27. 27. From ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man © Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission If  we  work  to  prototype  here  and  now,  solving  real-­‐world  problems  along  the  way,  all  will   benefit.    If  we  make  advances  open  and  adaptable  to  humanity’s  best  minds,  we  will  gain  allies  in   our  effort  to  uplift  Earth  and  thrive  beyond  it. ...  Perhaps  advanced,  resilient  technologies  could  carry  a  seal  standing  for  the  dual  design  goals   of  uplifting
  28. 28. From ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man © Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission Perhaps  advanced,  resilient  technologies  could  carry  a  seal  standing  for  the  dual  design  goals  of   uplifting  life  on  Earth  while  advancing  our  reach  towards  the  stars.  Like  LEED  certification  for  an   infinite  future. ...  What  would  such  projects  be  like?    Last  year,  I  proposed  the  Vessel  project  as  a  means  to   safeguard  cultural  potential  on  Earth  and  beyond.
  29. 29. From ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man © Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission What  would  such  projects  be  like?    Last  year,  I  proposed  the  Vessel  project  as  a  means  to   safeguard  cultural  potential  on  Earth  and  beyond. I’ll  close  with  a  brief  update  on  this  approach  to  advanced  computing,  compact  habitat  design,   and  long-­‐term  archival.   ...  Capability  lost  before  advanced  goals  are  reached  will  be  very  difficult  to  recover,  without  a   means  of  setting  a  baseline  for  civilization’s  capabilities.
  30. 30. Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Capability  lost  before  advanced  goals  are  reached  will  be  very  difficult  to  recover,  without  a   means  of  setting  a  baseline  for  civilization’s  capabilities. A  Vessel  is  an  installation,  facility,  or  habitat  that  serves  as  a  reservoir  for  Earth’s  biological,   scientific,  and  cultural  record.    Into  a  Vessel  is  poured  what  must  be  remembered  for  humanity’s   potential  to  be  maintained.    On  Earth  or  beyond,  a  Vessel  habitat  is  designed  to  carry  forth  the   sum  of  all  we’ve  been.   In  2012,  Vessel  was  pictured  as  the  Lilypad  seasteading  habitat.  But  different  Vessels  would  have   different  designs  based  on  their  needs  and  settings.    These  traits  remain  key  in  each  case: ...  At  a  Vessel’s  core  would  lie  biological  archives,  meant  to  preserve  key  traces  of  Earth’s   biodiversity.
  31. 31. Biological Cache (Library of Life) Cultural Cache Scientific CacheDIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert) Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004 G. Benford: Saving The Library of Life (1992) goo.gl/wjhSC At  a  Vessel’s  core  would  lie  biological  archives,  meant  to  preserve  key  traces  of  Earth’s   biodiversity.    Here  the  primary  model  is  Gregory  Benford’s  groundbreaking  1992  Library  of  Life   proposal.    He  details  a  program  for  freezing  and  preservation  of  endangered  biomass  for  possible   future  recovery.   Also  crucial  would  be  core  archives  for  cultural  and  scientific  knowledge,  both  physical  and   digital.    I’m  working  with  Icarus  Interstellar  to  make  sure  the  Vessel  framework  is  compatible   with  Icarus  projects. ...  Surrounding  these  archives  would  be  Research  Labs,  where  specialists  can  collaborate  on   advanced  technologies,
  32. 32. James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010 Research Labs (Inwards-Facing Facilities) Surrounding  these  archives  would  be  Research  Labs,  where  specialists  could  collaborate  on   advanced  technologies,  seeking  critical  paths  which  avoid  and  mitigate  Xrisk.    Or,  in  a  time  of   recovery,  sealed  labs  could  be  the  birthplace  of  new  beginnings. Research  Labs  would  open  inwards  to  draw  upon  the  Core  Cache.   ...  But  in  the  near  term,  through  an  outer  ring  of  Learning  Labs,  Vessel  facilities  could  welcome   the  curious
  33. 33. ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission Learning Labs (Outwards-Facing Facilities) But  in  the  near  term,  through  an  outer  ring  of  Learning  Labs,  Vessel  facilities  could  welcome  the   curious,  and  give  visitors  an  inspiring  glimpse  at  advanced  studies.     Immersive  labs  could  be  catalysts  for  change,  helping  people  understand  the  arc  of  history  in   nature,  culture  and  science,  the  common  risks  ahead,  and  the  limitless  possibilities  if  Earth   achieves  its  full  potential. ...  Built  around  these  three  roles  -­‐-­‐  of  Learning,  Research,  and  Archival  -­‐-­‐  the  Vessel  framework  is   designed  to  adapt  to  any  setting  or  situation.
  34. 34. Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Built  around  these  three  roles  -­‐-­‐  of  Learning,  Research,  and  Archival  -­‐-­‐  the  Vessel  framework  is   designed  to  adapt  to  any  setting  or  situation. What  all  Vessels  would  have  in  common  is  a  dedication  to  preserving  cultural  capability,  and  a   layered,  approachable  presence  adapted  to  its  setting.     Many  should  be  built,  using  many  approaches.  Some  could  be  public,  while  mission  critical   Vessels  may  be  as  remote  as  the  Svalbard  Seed  Vault,  or  even  secret. ...  Some  may  be  massive  habitats,  with  others  more  like  sculptures,  compact  and  dense  as  a   room.
  35. 35. Dome (CC-BY-NC) Tak Desert-Qatar (CC-0) Public Domain (CC-BY-NC-ND) M.C.Chavez (CC-BY-SA) Decade Null Moon (NASA/Apollo) 1969 STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission Some  may  be  massive  as  habitats,  with  others  more  like  sculptures,  compact  and  dense  as  a   room. At  the  recent  Starship  Century  conference  in  May,  Freeman  Dyson  envisioned  terrarium-­‐like   habitats  which  could  seed  the  vast  reaches  of  space  with  life.  This  egg-­‐like  approach  is  hugely   inspiring  to  ponder  from  the  perspective  of  the  Vessel  project. Whether  urban  or  remote,  extreme  habitats  or  modules  on  a  starship,  Vessel  is  offered  as  a   flexible  framework  for  the  long  term  survival  of  life’s  capabilities. ...  The  Vessel  project  has  several  routes  forwards.
  36. 36. The  Vessel  project  has  several  routes  forwards. My  plans  for  2014  include  a  global  survey  of  existing  long-­‐term  archival  projects,  an  open  design   document  to  help  others  adapt  and  evolve  the  Vessel  framework,  and  a  Kickstarter  for  a  Vessel-­‐ related  art  project. Right  before  Starship  Congress,  I  began  an  Internship  with  the  Long  Now  Foundation,  working   on  a  project  called  the  Manual  for  Civilization.     ...  As  the  first  core  collection  for  their  planned  Library  of  the  Long  Now,  a  10,000  year  archive,   this  work  will  overlap  deeply  with  the  Vessel  project.
  37. 37. labs.vessel.cc Register for updates on Vessel and the Long Now Manual for Civilization projects at: vessel.cc.launchrock.com heath.rezabek@gmail.com hrezabek@icarusinterstellar.org @heath_rezabek follow on twitter As  the  first  core  collection  for  their  planned  Library  of  the  Long  Now,  a  10,000  year  archive,  this   work  will  overlap  deeply  with  the  Vessel  project.   So,  my  own  timeline  for  Vessel  is  in  flux.  But  if  you’d  like  to  collaborate,  discuss  ways  of  applying   Xrisk  mitigation  to  your  own  work,  or  want  to  help  accelerate  these  efforts,  please  get  in  touch. You  can  register  for  updates  on  the  Vessel  project  at  vessel.cc.launchrock.com [Pause] We  now  turn  towards  the  longer  term,  with  Nick  Nielsen.
  38. 38. ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission (Xrisk 101 ) Session  Slides  &  Contact  Information vessel.cc/sc2013 heath.rezabek@gmail.com john.n.nielsen@gmail.com g+ Xrisk - goo.gl/0QKj4 NICK’S  SLIDES  CONTINUE  FROM  HERE Above  is  Final  Slide  for  Questions  and  Comments  after  Nick’s  Slides

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