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Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives
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Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives

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PDF of slides+notes for 2012 100YSS Conference in Houston TX. Session is a proposal for a type of very-long-term archive as habitat. …

PDF of slides+notes for 2012 100YSS Conference in Houston TX. Session is a proposal for a type of very-long-term archive as habitat.

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  • 1. Existential Risk, Human Survival, and the Future of Life in the Universe: Interstellar Civilization through Vessel Archives Heath  Rezabek,  MLIS heath.rezabek@gmail.com 100  Year  Starship  Symposium September  13-­‐16,  2012.    Houston,  Texas. ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by PermissionHeath  Rezabek  is  the  Teen  Services  Coordinator  at  the  Austin  Public  Library,  where  he  works  with  his  staff  to  empower  at-­‐risk  youth  through  media  literacy.    A  librarian  by  career  and  calling,  his  session  suggests  a  key  role  for  archives  in  the  100  Year  Starship  Mission.    However,  Heath  is  here  today  as  an  individual  and  enthusiast:    A  writer,  artist,  and  advocate  for  the  100YSS  Mission.    His  other  interests  include  community  building,  sustainable  architecture,  the  mission  of  art,  cosmology,  the  importance  of  the  humanities,  and  the  prospects  for  life  in  the  universe.    He  unites  these  themes  in  his  session:    Existential  Risk,  Human  Survival,  and  the  Future  of  Life  in  the  Universe:    Interstellar  Civilization  through  Vessel  Archives.(  …  Thank  you.  …  )
  • 2. Session  slides  available. slideshare.net/heathrezabek biota.cc/vessel-slides.pdf ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by PermissionThank  you.Some  quick  notes  before  we  begin.Session  slides  available  both  on  Slideshare  and  as  a  PDF  from  my  own  server.(  …  These  break-­‐out  slides  will  mention  Brief  highlights.  …  )
  • 3. Exploring further... Brief  highlights Only  a  few  key  ideas  could  be  covered  in  this  20   minute  session.    To  save  time,  topics  in   breakout  slides  will  not  be  explored  in  depth. Refer  to  paper  for  details The  working  Paper  is  50  pages,  and  covers  all   key  elements  of  this  proposal.    References  are   also  cited  there. Contact Inquiries  and  collaboration  welcomed. heath.rezabek@gmail.com heath.rezabek@gmail.com biota.cc/vessel.pdf ORIGINS (Detail) © Lucy West 2012 / Used by PermissionThese  break-­‐out  slides  will  mention  Brief  highlights.Working  Paper  is  longer  -­‐  50  pages  -­‐  with  more  background  than  I  can  cover  in  20  minutes.    A  link  to  the  PDF  is  at  bottom  of  these  slides.I  welcome  contact,  inquiries,  and  collaboration  via  email.(  …  As  early  as  the  January  2011  100  Year  Starship  Workshop,  the  mission  had  identified  human  survival  as  a  key  factor  in  its  work.      …  )
  • 4. EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003As  early  as  the  January  2011  100  Year  Starship  Workshop,  the  mission  had  identified  human  survival  as  a  key  factor  in  its  work.    The  workshop  recommended  exploration  of  "ideas  related  to  creating  a  legacy  for  the  human  species,  backing  up  the  Earth’s  biosphere,  and  enabling  long-­‐term  survival  in  the  face  of  catastrophic  disasters  on  Earth."  I  hope  to  contribute  a  means  for  addressing  all  three  of  these  goals  in  one  effort.So  let’s  begin  with  two  key  questions.    The  first  of  which  is:(  …  Are  we  alone?  …  )
  • 5. The Fermi Paradox and The Great Silence Are  we  alone? EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003Are  we  alone?…  Is  life  -­‐-­‐  living  matter,  whether  simple  or  complex  -­‐-­‐  common,  or  is  it  rare,  in  the  observable  universe?    (  …  The  Kepler  Mission  and  others  tell  us  that  there  is  no  shortage  of  rocky  worlds  to  be  detected  …  )
  • 6. The Fermi Paradox and The Great Silence Kepler  and  0ther  observations  tell  us  that   there  is  no  shortage  of  worlds  to  be   detected. Billions  of  years  for  worlds  to  develop. Radiant  life  or  von  Neumann  probes  would  need  <  1  million  years. Where  are  they? This  is  the  Fermi  Paradox. The  quiet  in  place  of  any  other  signs  of  life:    the  Great  Silence. EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003The  Kepler  Mission  and  others  tell  us  that  there  is  no  shortage  of  rocky  worlds  to  be  detected.There’ve  been  billions  of  years  for  worlds  to  develop.Radiant  life  or  von  Neumann  probes  would  need  as  little  as  1  million  years  to  colonize  the  Galaxy.Where  are  they?This  is  the  Fermi  Paradox.The  quiet  in  place  of  any  other  signs  of  life  has  been  termed  the  Great  Silence.
  • 7. Exploring further... Possible  answers  to  the  Fermi   Paradox Responsibility  to  strive, regardless  of  the  unknown   status  of  other  life biota.cc/vessel.pdf EXOPLANET TRANSIT ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003Exploring  further  in  the  paper  we  have  some  Possible  answers  to  the  Fermi  Paradox...  and  we  discuss  our  Responsibility  to  strive,  regardless  of  the  unknown  status  of  other  life(  …  Is  life  widespread,  or  as  uncommon  as  we  seem  to  be?  …  )
  • 8. The Fermi Paradox and The Great Silence Is  life  widespread,  or  as  uncommon as  we  seem  to  be? Learning  the  truth  through  interstellar  travel  will  take  time. We  must  foster  a  supporting—and  surviving—interstellar  civilization. EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA 2003 / Illustration by AOES MedialabIs  life  widespread,  or  as  uncommon  as  we  seem  to  be?Learning  the  truth  through  interstellar  travel  will  take  time.In  order  to  achieve  our  goal  of  interstellar  travel,  we  must  foster  a  supporting  and  surviving  interstellar  civilization.  (  …  This  brings  us  to  second  key  question  …  )
  • 9. MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASAThis  brings  me  to  our  second  key  question(  …  Will  we  endure?  …  )
  • 10. Existential Risk Will  we  endure? MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASAThis  brings  me  to  our  second  key  questionWill  we  endure?(  …  We  have  given  ourselves  100  years  to  achieve  our  primary  goal,  yet  our  endeavor  could  be  cut  short  before  that  time  has  passed.    The  risk  that  we  may  not  endure  is  termed  Existential  Risk.    …  )
  • 11. Existential Risk 100  years  to  achieve  our  primary  goal. Our  endeavor  could  be  cut  short  before  that   time  has  passed.   The  risk  that  we  may  not  endure  is  termed  Existential  Risk. An  existential  risk  is  one  that  threatens  the  premature   extinction  of  Earth-­‐originating  intelligent  life  or  the  permanent   and  drastic  destruction  of  its  potential  for  desirable  future   development.   -­‐  Nick  Bostrom Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  the  Most  Important  Task  for  Humanity  (2011) MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASAWe  have  given  ourselves  100  years  to  achieve  our  primary  goal,  yet  our  endeavor  could  be  cut  short  before  that  time  has  passed.    The  risk  that  we  may  not  endure  is  termed  Existential  Risk.  Nick  Bostrom,  Director  of  the  Future  of  Humanity  Institute,  defines  -­‐An  existential  risk  is  one  that  threatens  the  premature  extinction  of  Earth-­‐originating  intelligent  life,  or  the  permanent  and  drastic  destruction  of  its  potential  for  desirable  future  development.  The  paper  quoted  here  is  an  excellent  treatment,  found  on  his  site,  called  “Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  the  Most  Important  Task  for  Humanity.”(  …  Now  let’s  notice  that  fragment  -­‐  “...  destruction  of  its  potential  for  desirable  future  development.”  …  )
  • 12. Existential Risk “...  the  permanent  and  drastic  destruction  of  its   potential  for  desirable  future  development.” Survival  alone  is  not  enough. In  some  cases,  a  surviving  society  may  be  brutalized,  stagnant,  or   diminished  irreparably.    Bostrom’s  2011  classification  sets  aside   discussion  of  particular  causes. Strict  focus  on  outcomes  helps  us  envision  possible  recovery  scenarios.   MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASANow  let’s  notice  that  fragment  -­‐  “...  destruction  of  its  potential  for  desirable  future  development.”Survival  alone  is  not  enough.    In  some  cases,  a  surviving  society  may  be  brutalized,  stagnant,  or  diminished  irreparably.Bostrom’s  2011  classification  sets  aside  discussion  of  particular  causes.(  …  Its  strict  focus  on  outcomes  helps  us  envision  possible  recovery  scenarios.    …  )
  • 13. Existential Risk Classification  of  Existential  Risk     Human  Extinction   Humanity  goes  extinct  prematurely,  i.e.,  before  reaching  technological  maturity. Permanent  Stagnation Humanity  survives  but  never  reaches  technological  maturity.     Subclasses:  Unrecovered  Collapse,  Plateauing,  Recurrent  Collapse Flawed  Realization Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  but  in  a  way  that  is  dismally  and  irremediably  flawed.       Subclasses:  Unconsummated  Realization,  Ephemeral  Realization Subsequent  Ruination Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  in  a  way  that  gives  good  future  prospects,  yet   subsequent  developments  cause  the  permanent  ruination  of  those  prospects. -­‐  Nick  Bostrom Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  the  Most  Important  Task  for  Humanity  (2011) MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASAIts  strict  focus  on  outcomes  helps  us  envision  possible  recovery  scenarios.Bostrom’s  classification  is  notable  for  not  being  a  laundry-­‐list  of  extinction  events.    It  points  out  two  key  outcomes  in  particular.    I  call  these  Dystopian  Outcomes,  as  they’re  unfavorable  outcomes  which  continue  indefinitely:Permanent  Stagnation  -­‐  Humanity  survives  but  never  reaches  technological  maturity  or  interstellar  civilization.  Flawed  Realization  -­‐  Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  but  in  a  way  that  is  irredeemably  flawed.    [  -­‐-­‐  I  joke  that,  in  the  realm  of  Existential  Risk,  Dystopian  outcomes  are  ones  that  only  an  existentialist  could  love.  -­‐-­‐  ]But  What  of  the  other  two  classes?(  …  Human  Extinction  is  exactly  as  it  sounds,  no  different  whether  the  cause  is  a  sterilizing  asteroid,  a  pandemic,  or  an  unforeseen  technology.  …  )
  • 14. Existential Risk Classification  of  Existential  Risk     Human  Extinction   Humanity  goes  extinct  prematurely,  i.e.,  before  reaching  technological  maturity. Permanent  Stagnation Humanity  survives  but  never  reaches  technological  maturity.     Subclasses:  Unrecovered  Collapse,  Plateauing,  Recurrent  Collapse Flawed  Realization Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  but  in  a  way  that  is  dismally  and  irremediably  flawed.       Subclasses:  Unconsummated  Realization,  Ephemeral  Realization Subsequent  Ruination Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  in  a  way  that  gives  good  future  prospects,  yet   subsequent  developments  cause  the  permanent  ruination  of  those  prospects. -­‐  Nick  Bostrom Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  the  Most  Important  Task  for  Humanity  (2011) MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASAHuman  Extinction  is  exactly  as  it  sounds,  no  different  whether  the  cause  is  a  sterilizing  asteroid,  a  pandemic,  or  an  unforeseen  technology.(  …  Subsequent  Ruination  is  a  Far-­‐future  catch-­‐all.    Extinction  at  some  point  after  we  become  interstellar  is  the  least  of  our  worries  over  the  next  100  years.  …  )
  • 15. Existential Risk Classification  of  Existential  Risk     Human  Extinction   Humanity  goes  extinct  prematurely,  i.e.,  before  reaching  technological  maturity. Permanent  Stagnation Humanity  survives  but  never  reaches  technological  maturity.     Subclasses:  Unrecovered  Collapse,  Plateauing,  Recurrent  Collapse Flawed  Realization Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  but  in  a  way  that  is  dismally  and  irremediably  flawed.       Subclasses:  Unconsummated  Realization,  Ephemeral  Realization Subsequent  Ruination Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  in  a  way  that  gives  good  future  prospects,  yet   subsequent  developments  cause  the  permanent  ruination  of  those  prospects. -­‐  Nick  Bostrom Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  the  Most  Important  Task  for  Humanity  (2011) MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASASubsequent  Ruination  is  a  Far-­‐future  catch-­‐all.    Extinction  at  some  point  after  we  become  interstellar  is  the  least  of  our  worries  over  the  next  100  years.(  …    That  leaves  us  the  challenges  of  today:  the  risk  of  a  deeply  diminished  legacy,  to  pass  on  to  the  stars.  …  )
  • 16. Existential Risk Classification  of  Existential  Risk     Human  Extinction   Humanity  goes  extinct  prematurely,  i.e.,  before  reaching  technological  maturity. Permanent  Stagnation Humanity  survives  but  never  reaches  technological  maturity.     Subclasses:  Unrecovered  Collapse,  Plateauing,  Recurrent  Collapse Flawed  Realization Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  but  in  a  way  that  is  dismally  and  irremediably  flawed.       Subclasses:  Unconsummated  Realization,  Ephemeral  Realization Subsequent  Ruination Humanity  reaches  technological  maturity  in  a  way  that  gives  good  future  prospects,  yet   subsequent  developments  cause  the  permanent  ruination  of  those  prospects. -­‐  Nick  Bostrom Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  the  Most  Important  Task  for  Humanity  (2011) MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASAThat  leaves  us  the  challenges  of  today:  the  risk  of  a  deeply  diminished  legacy,  to  pass  on  to  the  stars.Avoiding  this  outcome  is  the  focus  of  my  proposal.(  …  So,  Reminded  of  the  need  to  foster  our  cultural  capabilities  beyond  mere  survival,  let’s  restate  the  January  2011  Workshop  goal  as  an  imperative:  …  )
  • 17. Existential Risk Imperative To  achieve  an  interstellar  civilization  while   addressing  existential  risk,  we  must  do  more  than   survive:    we  must  preserve  our  aspirations,  our   capabilities,  our  cultural  resources,  and  our   biodiversity. MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASASo,  Reminded  of  the  need  to  foster  our  cultural  capabilities  beyond  mere  survival,  let’s  restate  the  January  2011  Workshop  goal  as  an  imperative:To  achieve  an  interstellar  civilization  while  addressing  existential  risk,  we  must  do  more  than  survive:    we  must  preserve  our  aspirations,  our  capabilities,  our  cultural  resources,  and  our  biodiversity.(  …  What  type  of  archive  would  answer  to  our  Dystopian  Outcomes  -­‐-­‐  Permanent  Stagnation  or  Flawed  Realization?    …  )
  • 18. What  type  of  archive  would  answer  to   Permanent  Stagnation  or  Flawed   Realization?   Gregory  Benford  suggested  one  example  in  1992,  addressing   catastrophic  loss  of  biodiversity. DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert) Photo via Bradbury J: Natures Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004What  type  of  archive  would  answer  to  our  Dystopian  Outcomes  -­‐-­‐  Permanent  Stagnation  or  Flawed  Realization?  Gregory  Benford  suggested  one  example  in  1992,  addressing  catastrophic  loss  of  biodiversity.(  …  The  Library  of  Life  proposal  is  a  thought  experiment  on  avoiding  irreversible.  …  )
  • 19. The Library of Life DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert) Photo via Bradbury J: Natures Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004The  Library  of  Life  proposal  is  a  thought  experiment  on  avoiding  irreversible  loss.(  …  In  it,  he  details...  )
  • 20. The Library of Life The  Library  of  Life:    A  thought  experiment   on  avoiding  irreversible  loss  of  biodiversity. A  broad  program  of  freezing  species  in  threatened  ecospheres  could   preserve  biodiversity  for  eventual  use  by  future  generations.  Sampling   without  studying  can  lower  costs  dramatically.  […]    Much  more   information  than  species  DNA  will  be  saved,  allowing  future   biotechnology  to  derive  high  information  content  and  perhaps  even   resurrect  then-­‐extinct  species. -­‐  Gregory  Benford Abstract  for  “Saving  the  Library  of  Life”    (1992) DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert) Photo via Bradbury J: Natures Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004In  it,  he  details...A  broad  program  of  freezing  species  in  threatened  ecospheres  [that]  could  preserve  biodiversity  for  eventual  recovery  by  future  generations.  [Believing  even  then  that  we  had  no  more  time  for  the  slow  luxury  of  taxonomy,  he  recommended  freezing  flora  and  fauna  in  situ,  their  complex  relationships  as  predator  and  prey  intact.      “Much  more  information  than  species  DNA  will  be  saved,”  he  wrote,  “allowing  future  biotechnology  to  derive  high  information  content  -­‐-­‐  and  perhaps  even  resurrect  then-­‐extinct  species.”(  …  The  proposal  was  controversial,  but  galvanizing.    Carl  Sagan  wrote  in  a  letter  to  Benford  …  )
  • 21. The Library of Life Controversial,  but  galvanizing. My  main  concern  is  that  people  will  conclude  that  scientists  have   given  up  on  preserving  living  biodiversity,  or  that  future  species   extinctions  are  not  so  worrisome  because  we  can  always  reconstitute   the  species  and  genera  that  we  render  extinct.  But  […]  these  potential   obstacles  can  be  circumvented:  by  stressing  [...]  that  the  very  fact  that   such  steps  are  being  taken  is  an  indication  of  how  serious  the  problem   is. -­‐  Carl  Sagan Letter  to  Benford  in  Deep  Time  (1999) The  Library  of  Life  proposal  was  one  of  the  deepest  and  earliest   influences  on  my  Vessel  Archives  proposal.    It  taught:    We  cannot  be   afraid  to  galvanize  our  efforts,  when  confronting  existential  risk. DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert) Photo via Bradbury J: Natures Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004The  proposal  was  controversial,  but  galvanizing.    Carl  Sagan  wrote  in  a  letter  to  BenfordMy  main  concern  is  that  people  will  conclude  that  scientists  have  given  up  on  preserving  living  biodiversity,  or  that  future  species  extinctions  are  not  so  worrisome  because  we  can  always  reconstitute  the  species  […]  that  we  render  extinct.  But  […]  these  potential  obstacles  can  be  circumvented:  by  stressing  [...]  that  the  very  fact  that  such  steps  are  being  taken  is  an  indication  of  how  serious  the  problem  is.When  I  first  encountered  the  The  Library  of  Life  proposal,  I  was  stunned  by  a  glimpse  of  very-­‐long-­‐term  thinking.    It  eventually  contributed  to  my  becoming  a  Librarian.    So  one  of  the  deepest  and  earliest  ideas  to  shape  the  Vessel  Archive  proposal  comes  from  the  Library  of  Life,  and  can  stated  by  saying:(  …  We  cannot  be  afraid  to  galvanize  our  efforts,  in  confronting  existential  risk.  …  )
  • 22. The Library of Life What  type  of  facility  would  be  needed  to   carry  a  Library  of  Life,  or  house  a  cultural   equivalent,  over  the  very-­‐long-­‐term? Cultural  archives  would  require  different  methods,  and  the  facility   itself  could  take  on  as  many  different  forms  as  there  are  cultures... DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert) Photo via Bradbury J: Natures Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004We  cannot  be  afraid  to  galvanize  our  efforts,  in  confronting  existential  risk.  So,  can  we  envision  the  type  of  facility  would  be  needed  to  carry  a  Library  of  Life,  or  house  a  cultural  equivalent,  over  the  very-­‐long-­‐term?Cultural  archives  would  require  different  methods,  and  the  facility  itself  could  take  on  as  many  different  forms  as  there  are  cultures.(  …  Here  I  propose  the  Vessel  Archive,  a  recombinant  idea,  drawing  many  efforts  into  one.  …  )
  • 23. Vessel Archives Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008Here  I  propose  the  Vessel  Archive,  a  recombinant  idea,  drawing  many  efforts  into  one.In  illustrating  the  Vessel  Archive  proposal,  I  am  especially  thankful  to  Philippe  Steels,  who  granted  permission  to  use  his  design  visualizations  for  Lilypad,  an  oceanfaring  hyperstructure  by  architect  Vincent  Callebaut.    (  …  These  structures  also  share  much  in  common  with  the  original  Arcology  concepts  of  Paolo  Soleri.  …  )
  • 24. Vessel Archives Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008These  structures  also  share  much  in  common  with  the  original  Arcology  concepts  of  Paolo  Soleri.Most  hyperstructure  projects,  including  Paolo  Soleri’s  Arcology  proposals,  are  designed  for  large  numbers  of  inhabitants  (from  10,000  to  millions).    I  propose  applying  these  strategies  on  a  more  practical  scale,  in  a  limited-­‐scope  project.So  what  is  a  Vessel  Archive?(  …  A  Vessel  Archive  is  a  self-­‐contained,  sustainable  habitat  which  fosters  the  traces  of  Earths  cultures  and  biomes.  …  )
  • 25. Vessel Archives A  Vessel  Archive  is  a  self-­‐contained,  sustainable  habitat,   which  harbors  the  traces  of  Earths  cultures  and  biomes. These  installations  would  serve  in  the  near-­‐term  as  examples   of  sustainability  and  as  ambassadors  for  societys   understanding  of  the  100  Year  Starship  Mission,  and  would   serve  in  the  long-­‐term  as  protective  vessels  for  humanitys   aspirations,  knowledge,  and  the  traces  of  life  itself. Vessel  Archives  would  be  dedicated  to  their  twin  goals  of   education,  and  preservation.     Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008A  Vessel  Archive  is  a  self-­‐contained,  sustainable  habitat  which  harbors  the  traces  of  Earths  cultures  and  biomes.These  installations  would  serve  in  the  near-­‐term  as  examples  of  sustainability  and  as  ambassadors  for  societys  understanding  of  the  100  Year  Starship  Mission,  and  would  serve  in  the  long-­‐term  as  protective  vessels  for  humanitys  aspirations,  knowledge,  and  the  traces  of  life  itself.(  …  Vessel  Archives  would  be  dedicated  to  their  twin  goals  of  education,  and  preservation.    …    )
  • 26. Vessel Archives Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008Vessel  Archives  would  be  dedicated  to  their  twin  goals  of  education,  and  preservation.    (  …  The  term  "vessel"  describes  our  focused-­‐purpose  habitat  in  part  through  its  several  meanings.  …  )
  • 27. Vessel Archives Vessel  (noun.) The  term  vessel  describes  our  focused-­‐purpose  arcology  in   part  through  its  several  meanings.     A  vessel  is  a  ship;  a  vehicle  meant  to  ply  the  waters  (on  Earth),   or  the  space  between  the  stars.     A  vessel  is  a  container  into  which  is  poured  something  meant   to  be  stored  or  carried.     A  vessel  is  a  conduit  or  a  medium  for  transmission. Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008The  term  "vessel"  describes  our  focused-­‐purpose  habitat  in  part  through  its  several  meanings.    A  vessel  is  a  ship;  a  vehicle  meant  to  ply  the  waters  (on  Earth),  or  the  space  between  the  stars.    (  …  A  vessel  is  a  container  into  which  is  poured  something  meant  to  be  stored  or  carried.      …  )
  • 28. Vessel Archives Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008A  vessel  is  a  container  into  which  is  poured  something  meant  to  be  stored  or  carried.  A  vessel  is  a  conduit  or  a  medium  for  transmission.(  …  The  installation  as  a  whole  should  be  designed  as  self-­‐sufficient,  sustainable,  and  resilient  in  case  of  existential  catastrophe.  …  )
  • 29. Vessel Archives The  installation  as  a  whole  should  be  designed  as  self-­‐ sufficient,  sustainable,  and  resilient  in  case  of  existential   catastrophe. Each  Vessel  Archive  should  be  designed  to  harbor  a  diverse   and  interdisciplinary  crew  and  staff  of  just  a  few  thousand,  per   archive. They  would  be  colonies  on  Earth,  dedicated  to  the  legacy  of   life. Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008The  installation  as  a  whole  should  be  designed  as  self-­‐sufficient,  sustainable,  and  resilient  in  case  of  existential  catastrophe.Each  Vessel  Archive  should  be  designed  to  harbor  a  diverse  and  interdisciplinary  crew  and  staff  of  just  a  few  thousand,  per  archive.(  …  They  would  be  colonies  on  Earth,  dedicated  to  the  legacy  of  life.  …  )
  • 30. Vessel Archives Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008They  would  be  colonies  on  Earth,  dedicated  to  the  legacy  of  life.(  …  One  habitat  for  a  few  thousand  will  not  solve  our  societal  challenges  or  safeguard  life  on  Earth.      …  )
  • 31. Vessel Archives One  habitat  for  a  few  thousand  will  not  solve  our  societal   challenges  or  safeguard  life  on  Earth.    Connected  communities   of  hundreds  or  thousands  of  Vessel  Archives  around  the   world,  each  sharing  concrete  methods  for  sustainable  design   with  society  at  large,  may  do  better... Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008One  habitat  for  a  few  thousand  will  not  solve  our  societal  challenges  or  safeguard  life  on  Earth.    (  …  But  connected  communities  of  many  Vessel  Archives  around  the  world,  each  sharing  concrete  methods  for  sustainable  design  with  society  at  large,  may  do  better...  ...  )
  • 32. Vessel Archives Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008But  connected  communities  of  many  Vessel  Archives  around  the  world,  each  sharing  concrete  methods  for  sustainable  design  with  society  at  large,  may  do  better...(  …  A  Vessel  Archive’s  outer  exhibits,  clearly  visible  to  a  curious  public,  would  house  resources  and  environments  introducing  the  100  Year  Starship  Mission.  …  )
  • 33. Vessel Archives A  Vessel  Archive’s  outer  exhibits,  clearly  visible  to  a  curious   public,  would  house  resources  and  environments  introducing   the  100  Year  Starship  Mission. At  the  heart  of  a  Vessel  Archive  would  be  labs  for  research  and   development,  core  collections,  and  sample  banks  of  the   cultural  and  biological  records. This  core  archive  (like  a  Library  of  Life)  could  be  replicated,   and  transferred  in  whole  or  in  part  to  a  100  Year  Starship,  to   serve  as  its  memory  of  Earth. Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008A  Vessel  Archive’s  outer  exhibits,  clearly  visible  to  a  curious  public,  would  house  resources  and  environments  introducing  the  100  Year  Starship  Mission.At  the  heart  of  a  Vessel  Archive  would  be  labs  for  research  and  development,  core  collections,  and  our  sample  banks  of  cultural  and  biological  records.(  …  This  core  archive  (like  a  Library  of  Life)  could  be  split  or  sampled,  and  transferred  in  whole  or  in  part  to  a  100  Year  Starship,  to  serve  as  its  memory  of  Earth.  …  )
  • 34. Vessel Archives Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008This  core  archive  (like  a  Library  of  Life)  could  be  split  or  sampled,  and  transferred  in  whole  or  in  part  to  a  100  Year  Starship,  to  serve  as  its  memory  of  Earth.But  Vessel  Archives  themselves  would  remain  after  all  other  ships  had  launched,  to  ensure  that  humanity’s  essence  endured.(  …  The  Vessel  Archive,  carried  out  in  many  forms,  would  address  the  debilitating  outcomes  of  existential  risk:  …  )
  • 35. Vessel Archives The  Vessel  Archive,  carried  out  in  many  forms,  would  address   the  debilitating  outcomes  of  existential  risk: Permanent  Stagnation;  (Unrecovered  Collapse;   Plateauing;  Recurrent  Collapse) Flawed  Realization;  (Unconsummated  Realization;   Ephemeral  Realization) Vessel  Archives  would  also  address  the  other  two  outcome   classes. Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008The  Vessel  Archive,  carried  out  in  many  forms,  would  address  the  Dystopian  Outcomes  of  existential  risk:Permanent  Stagnation  and  Flawed  Realization.Vessel  Archives  would  also  address  the  other  two  outcome  classes,  through  Bruce  Sterling’s  concept  of  Deep  Archival.    This  is  detailed  in  the  paper.(  …  While  the  Lilypad  habitat  is  an  oceanfaring  vessel,  the  example  is  for  illustration  only:    A  Vessel  Archive  does  not  need  to  be  floating,  or  have  any  other  single  form.  …  )
  • 36. Vessel Archives Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008While  the  Lilypad  habitat  is  an  oceanfaring  vessel,  the  example  is  for  illustration  only:    A  Vessel  Archive  does  not  need  to  be  floating,  or  have  any  other  single  form.(  …  Many  other  approaches  inform  the  Vessel  Archive  proposal,  starting  with  the  need  to  encourage  hybrid  vigor  through  an  open  specification  …  )
  • 37. Many  other  approaches  inform  the  Vessel   Archive  proposal,  starting  with  the  need   to  encourage  hybrid  vigor  through  an   open  specification... biota.cc/vessel.pdf STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by PermissionMany  other  approaches  inform  the  Vessel  Archive  proposal,  starting  with  the  need  to  encourage  hybrid  vigor  through  an  open  specification...(  …  I  propose  the  use  of  Creative  Commons  to  seed  an  open  specification  on  Vessel  Archive  designs.  …  )
  • 38. Exploring further... Creative  Commons Seed  several  instances  of  open  specification  and   resource  sites  to  explore,  detail,  and  document   the  creation  of  Vessel  Archives,  encouraging   hybrid  vigor. biota.cc/vessel.pdfI  propose  the  use  of  Creative  Commons  to  seed  an  open  specification  on  Vessel  Archive  designs.    A  separate,  licensed  branch  could  allow  for  proprietary  developments  in  parallel  to  public  efforts.    If  you’re  interested  in  helping  either  effort,  or  hosting  such  a  site  at  your  organization,  please  make  contact.(  …  Given  the  time,  I’d  explore  how  we  could  inspire  the  public  with  the  100  Year  Starship  Mission,  through  interactive  exhibits  at  existing,  familiar  institutions:    Museums,  Planetariums,  Arboretums,  Observatories,  Universities,  Libraries...  …  )
  • 39. The 100 Year Starship: Inviting Humanity Given  the  time,  I’d  explore  how  we  could   inspire  the  public  with  the  100  Year   Starship  Mission,  through  interactive   exhibits  at  existing,  familiar  institutions:     Museums,  Planetariums,  Arboretums,   Observatories,  Universities,  Libraries... DAEDALUS ARRIVES / © Adrian Mann 2012 / Used by PermissionGiven  the  time,  I’d  explore  how  we  could  inspire  the  public  with  the  100  Year  Starship  Mission,  through  interactive  exhibits  at  existing,  familiar  institutions:    Museums,  Planetariums,  Arboretums,  Observatories,  Universities,  Libraries...(  …  I’d  discuss  the  many  forms  and  formats  we  could  use  to  convey  the  story  of  the  100  Year  Starship  Mission.    …  )
  • 40. Exploring further... Many  Forms  and  Formats   possible  for  conveying  the   100YSS  Mission  Story Scenario-­‐Gaming,  Simulations,   and  Role-­‐Play biota.cc/vessel.pdf DAEDALUS SEPARATED © Adrian Mann 2012 / Used by PermissionI’d  discuss  the  many  forms  and  formats  we  could  use  to  convey  the  story  of  the  100  Year  Starship  Mission.I’d  present  immersive  gaming  as  one  way  to  engage  people  ...(  …  in  envisioning  an  interstellar  civilization,  and  redetermining  our  role  in  the  universe.  …  )
  • 41. Exploring further... Becoming  an  Interstellar   Civilization Redefining  our  Cosmology biota.cc/vessel.pdf STAR MAP © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission  …  in  envisioning  an  interstellar  civilization,  and  redetermining  our  role  in  the  universe.(  …  I’d  detail  architectural  approaches  we  could  use  to  build  Vessel  Archives  as  dedicated,  multipurpose  facilities.  …  )
  • 42. Biophilia and Biophilic Design: A Pattern Language I’d  detail  architectural  approaches  we   could  use  to  build  Vessel  Archives  as   dedicated,  multipurpose  facilities. EDEN PROJECT: TROPICAL BIOME / Photo via Steve Keiretsu (CC-BY-1.0) 2001I’d  detail  architectural  approaches  we  could  use  to  build  Vessel  Archives  as  dedicated,  multipurpose  facilities.(  …  I’d  propose  possible  applications  of  new  dense  archival  methods,  like  the  digital  DNA  sequencing  recently  developed  by  Church/Gao/Kosuri.  …  )
  • 43. Exploring further... Binary  DNA  Data  Sequencing Recent  work  (Church/Gao/Kosuri  2012)  is   discussed,  along  with  possible  applications. DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert) biota.cc/vessel.pdf Photo via Bradbury J: Natures Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004I’d  propose  possible  applications  of  new  dense  archival  methods,  like  the  digital  DNA  sequencing  recently  developed  by  Church/Gao/Kosuri.(  …  I’d  discuss  the  influence  of  architect  Paolo  Soleri’s  architectural  ecologies  -­‐-­‐  or  Arcologies  -­‐-­‐  on  the  concept  of  Vessel  Archives.      …  )
  • 44. In the Paper... Arcology  (Paolo  Soleri,  1969) Compact  and  integrated  installations  as  self-­‐ contained  cities. biota.cc/vessel.pdf From ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man © Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by PermissionI’d  discuss  the  influence  of  architect  Paolo  Soleri’s  architectural  ecologies  -­‐-­‐  or  Arcologies  -­‐-­‐  on  the  concept  of  Vessel  Archives.(  …  And  the  possibilities  of  Biophilic  Design  and  Pattern  Languages  for  very-­‐long-­‐term  habitats  on  Earth  and  in  space.  …  )
  • 45. Exploring further... The  Biophilia  Hypothesis  and   Biophilic  Design Pattern  Languages  (Christopher   Alexander) biota.cc/vessel.pdf THORNCROWN CHAPEL (E. Fay Jones) Photo via Bobak (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2006And  the  possibilities  of  Biophilic  Design  and  Pattern  Languages  for  very-­‐long-­‐term  habitats  on  Earth  and  in  space.(  …  I’d  cover  the  implications  for  Icarus  Interstellar’s  Project  Hyperion  and  Project  Persephone,  both  devoted  to  interstellar  habitats.  …  )
  • 46. Exploring further... 100YSS:  Icarus  Interstellar   Project  Hyperion Research  on  very-­‐long-­‐term  habitat  design   factors.   100YSS:    Icarus  Interstellar   Project  Persephone Research  on  evolving  architecture  for  very-­‐long-­‐ term  and  extrasolar  habitat  design. (Biophilic  Design,  Pattern  Languages,   Arcology  /  habitats:    All  applicable.) LILYPAD / biota.cc/vessel.pdf Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 Visualization © Philippe Steels 2008 Visualization Used by PermissionI’d  connect  these  approaches  to  Icarus  Interstellar’s  Project  Hyperion  and  Project  Persephone,  both  devoted  to  interstellar  habitats.(  …  And  introduce  solutions  preserved  in  vernacular  architecture,  as  a  form  of  embedded  cultural  archival.    …  )
  • 47. Exploring further... Preservation  of  Cultural   Architecture  and  Vernacular   Pattern  Languages Case  study:    Traditional  Japanese  architectural   solutions  and  patterns. Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2010 biota.cc/vessel.pdf BAMBOO Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2012And  introduce  solutions  preserved  in  vernacular  architecture,  as  a  form  of  embedded  cultural  archival.(  …  I’d  look  at  precursors  to  very-­‐long-­‐term  thinking,  such  as  the  10,000  Year  Clock  of  the  Long  Now  Foundation,  or  Bruce  Sterling’s  entreaty  towards  Deep  Archival.  …  )
  • 48. Exploring further... The  Long  Now  Foundation 10,000  Year  Clock  to  encourage  very-­‐long-­‐term   thinking. Deep  Archival Bruce  Sterling  on  very-­‐long-­‐term  archival. biota.cc/vessel.pdf CLOCK OF THE LONG NOW (Long Now Foundation) Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2007I’d  look  at  precursors  to  very-­‐long-­‐term  thinking,  such  as  the  10,000  Year  Clock  of  the  Long  Now  Foundation,  or  Bruce  Sterling’s  entreaty  towards  Deep  Archival.(  …  And  I’d  pose  the  ultimate  design  challenge,  of  launching  an  interstellar  starship  from  a  Vessel  Archive  installation,  with  a  core  Vessel  Archive  as  its  memory  of  Earth.    …  )
  • 49. Exploring further... Mission  launch  capability  as   deep  design  goal Core  Vessel  Archives  as  cargo  on   100YSS  ships biota.cc/vessel.pdf Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2007And  I’d  pose  the  ultimate  design  challenge,  of  launching  an  interstellar  starship  from  a  Vessel  Archive  installation,  with  a  core  Vessel  Archive  in  its  cargo.(  …  All  of  these  things  are  explored  in  the  working  paper  for  this  session.  …  )
  • 50. biota.cc/vessel.pdf STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by PermissionAll  of  these  things  are  explored  in  the  working  paper  for  this  session.(  …  But  none  of  these  things  matter,  in  the  absence  of  a  100  year  answer  -­‐-­‐  to  this:  …  )
  • 51. But  none  of  these  things  matter, in  the  absence  of  a  100  year  answer to  this: STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by PermissionBut  none  of  these  things  matter,  in  the  absence  of  a  100  year  answer  -­‐-­‐  to  this:
  • 52. PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990We  recognize  this  as  the  Pale  Blue  Dot  -­‐-­‐  our  fragile  self-­‐portrait,  Earth  as  captured  by  Voyager  I,  looking  back  towards  home,  in  1990.(  …  After  20  years  of  searching  and  synthesis,  the  Vessel  Archive  proposal,  is  the  very  best  I  have  to  give,  in  answer.    But  I  hope  that,  together,  we  can  do  still  better,  because  the  Great  Silence  awaits  our  response.  …  )
  • 53. Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008After  20  years  of  searching  and  synthesis,  the  Vessel  Archive  proposal,  is  the  very  best  I  have  to  give,  in  answer.    But  I  hope  that,  together,  we  can  do  still  better,  because  the  Great  Silence  awaits  our  response.(  …  )
  • 54. James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010(  …  We  began  with  the  Great  Silence,  and  so  we  will  end,  by  considering  the  Great  Filter.  …  )
  • 55. The Great Filter James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010(  …  We  began  with  the  Great  Silence,  and  so  we  will  end,  by  considering  the  Great  Filter.  …  )
  • 56. The Great Filter We  began  with  the  Great  Silence,  and  end  by   considering  the  Great  Filter. The  Great  Silence  implies  that  one  or  more  of  these  steps  [from   organic  stellar  material  to  expansive  interstellar  life  and  colonization]   are  very  improbable;  there  is  a  “Great  Filter”  along  the  path  between   simple  dead  stuff  and  explosive  life.  The  vast  majority  of  stuff  that   starts  along  this  path  never  makes  it.    [...]    The  fact  that  our  universe   seems  basically  dead  suggests  that  it  is  very  hard  for  advanced   explosive  lasting  life  to  arise. -­‐  Robin  Hanson The  Great  Filter  -­‐  Are  We  Almost  Past  It?    (1998) James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010We  began  with  the  Great  Silence,  and  so  we  will  end,  by  considering  the  Great  Filter.The  Great  Filter  is  a  kind  of  probability  barrier.  As  Robin  Hanson  describes,  this  idea  follows  from  the  Great  Silence  and  implies  that  some  step  or  series  of  steps  -­‐-­‐  from  the  dawn  of  organic  material  to  the  spread  of  expansive  life  -­‐-­‐  is  highly  unlikely    -­‐-­‐  If  it  weren’t,  traces  of  life  beyond  Earth  should  be  commonplace.      (  …  If  the  Great  Filter  is  an  apt  analogy,  we  do  not  know  whether  it  is  in  our  past,  in  our  future,  or  whether  we  are  still  being  tested  -­‐-­‐  strained  and  filtered  -­‐-­‐  by  it.    It  may  be  that  the  Great  Filter  is  a  technological  step,  or  series  of  them.      …  )
  • 57. The Great Filter James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010If  the  Great  Filter  is  an  apt  analogy,  we  do  not  know  whether  it  is  in  our  past,  in  our  future,  or  whether  we  are  still  being  tested  -­‐-­‐  strained  and  filtered  -­‐-­‐  by  it.    It  may  be  that  the  Great  Filter  is  a  technological  step,  or  series  of  them.Perhaps  it  is  the  passage  from  control  of  fire  to  interstellar  flight.    We  should  hope  that  it  lies  far  further  back  than  that,  in  the  transition  to  simpler  life  forms.    (  …  For  finding  even  simple  life  beyond  the  Earth  might  imply  that  the  Great  Filter  is  not  so  far  behind  us.    Whatever  the  case,  we  must  do  our  best  to  endure.  …  )
  • 58. STEM CELLS / © Douglas B. Cowan 2012 / Used by PermissionFor  finding  even  simple  life  beyond  the  Earth  might  imply  that  the  Great  Filter  is  not  so  far  behind  us.    This  argument,  made  by  Nick  Bostrom,  is  explored  in  the  paper.Whatever  the  case,  we  must  do  our  best  to  endure.(  …  The  stakes  are  high,  but  the  possible  future  benefits  of  our  work  are  also  vast,  when  considering  the  long-­‐term  potential  of  our  interstellar  civilization.  …  )
  • 59. Countless Generations to Come STEM CELLS / © Douglas B. Cowan 2012 / Used by PermissionThe  stakes  are  high,  but  the  possible  future  benefits  of  our  work  are  also  vast,  when  considering  the  long-­‐term  potential  of  our  interstellar  civilization.(  …  Nick  Bostrom  explains  that,  in  order  to  understand  the  loss  of  an  existential  catastrophe,  we’d  have  to  understand  the  value  of  its  absence.      …  )
  • 60. Countless Generations to Come The  stakes  are  high,  but  the  potential  future  benefits  of  undertaking  this   work  are  also  vast,  when  considering  the  long-­‐term  potential  of  our   interstellar  civilization. To  calculate  the  loss  associated  with  an  existential  catastrophe,  we   must  consider  how  much  value  would  come  to  exist  in  its  absence.    It   turns  out  that  the  ultimate  potential  for  Earth-­‐originating  intelligent   life  is  literally  astronomical.  […]  The  relevant  figure  is  not  how  many   people  could  live  on  Earth  but  how  many  descendants  we  could  have  in   total.  ...  Even  if  we  use  the  most  conservative  of  […]  estimates,  […]  we   find  that  the  expected  loss  of  an  existential  catastrophe  is  greater  than   the  value  of  1018  human  lives.    This  implies  that  the  expected  value  of   reducing  existential  risk  by  a  mere  one  millionth  of  one  percentage   point  is  at  least  ten  times  the  value  of  a  billion  human  lives. -­‐  Nick  Bostrom Existential  Risk  Prevention  as  the  Most  Important  Task  for  Humanity  (2011) STEM CELLS / © Douglas B. Cowan 2012 / Used by PermissionNick  Bostrom  explains  that,  in  order  to  understand  the  loss  of  an  existential  catastrophe,  we’d  have  to  understand  the  value  of  its  absence.    He  calculates  the  number  of  descendants  the  human  race  could  have.    Even  the  most  conservative  estimates  show  the  value  as  greater  than  10^18  human  lives.  He  concludes  “...that  the  expected  value  of  reducing  existential  risk  by  a  mere  one  millionth  of  one  percentage  point...”  is  at  least  ten  billion  human  lives.”(    …  And  just  thinking  of  these  things,  as  we  are  here  today,  must  surely  count  for  something.  …  )
  • 61. ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission biota.cc/vessel-slides.pdfAnd  just  thinking  of  these  things,  as  we  are  here  today,  must  surely  count  for  something.My  hope  is  that  we  will  have  reduced  the  chances  of  existential  catastrophe—and  increased  the  chances  of  humanity  fulfilling  its  potential—by  at  least  one  millionth  of  one  percent.I  have  detailed  one  model—the  Vessel  Archive—among,  perhaps,  many.    (  …  I  hope  that  this  work,  and  others  like  it,  unleash  a  flood  of  collaborative  efforts  to  piece  together  as  many  paths  to  interstellar  civilization  as  we  can  imagine.  …  )
  • 62. ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission biota.cc/vessel-slides.pdfI  hope  that  this  work  will  help  spark  others  like  it,  unleashing  a  flood  of  collaborative  efforts  to  piece  together  as  many  paths  to  interstellar  civilization  as  we  can  imagine.Thank  you.Questions?(  “The  most  astounding  fact  ...  is  the  knowledge  ...  )
  • 63. “The  most  astounding  fact  ...  is  the  knowledge  that  the  atoms  that  comprise  life  on   Earth,  the  atoms  that  make  up  the  human  body,  are  traceable  to  the  crucibles  that   cooked  light  elements  into  heavy  elements  in  their  core  ...  under  extreme  temperatures   and  pressures.    These  stars  ...  went  unstable  in  their  later  years.    They  collapsed  and   then  exploded,  scattering  their  enriched  guts  across  the  galaxy.    Guts  made  of  carbon,   nitrogen,  oxygen,  and  all  the  fundamental  ingredients  of  life  itself.    These   ingredients  become  part  of  gas  clouds  that  condense,  collapse,  form  the  next   generation  of  solar  systems—stars  with  orbiting  planets—and  those  planets   now  have  the  ingredients  for  life  itself.    So  that  when  I  look  up  at  the  night   sky,  and  I  know  that—yes—we  are  part  of  this  universe,  we  are  in  this   universe...    But  perhaps  more  important  than  both  of  those  facts,  is   that  the  universe  is  in  us.    When  I  reflect  on  that  fact,  I  look  up— many  people  feel  small,  because  theyre  small  and  the  universe   is  big;  but  I  feel  big.    Because  my  atoms  came  from   those  stars.” -­‐  Neil  deGrasse  Tyson TIME:  10  Questions  for   Neil  deGrasse   Tyson. ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission biota.cc/vessel-slides.pdf“The  most  astounding  fact  ...  is  the  knowledge  that  the  atoms  that  comprise  life  on  Earth,  the  atoms  that  make  up  the  human  body,  are  traceable  to  the  crucibles  that  cooked  light  elements  into  heavy  elements  in  their  core  ...  under  extreme  temperatures  and  pressures.    These  stars  ...  went  unstable  in  their  later  years.    They  collapsed  and  then  exploded,  scattering  their  enriched  guts  across  the  galaxy.    Guts  made  of  carbon,  nitrogen,  oxygen,  and  all  the  fundamental  ingredients  of  life  itself.    These  ingredients  become  part  of  gas  clouds  that  condense,  collapse,  form  the  next  generation  of  solar  systems—stars  with  orbiting  planets—and  those  planets  now  have  the  ingredients  for  life  itself.    So  that  when  I  look  up  at  the  night  sky,  and  I  know  that—yes—we  are  part  of  this  universe,  we  are  in  this  universe...    But  perhaps  more  important  than  both  of  those  facts,  is  that  the  universe  is  in  us.    When  I  reflect  on  that  fact,  I  look  up—many  people  feel  small,  because  theyre  small  and  the  universe  is  big;  but  I  feel  big.    Because  my  atoms  came  from  those  stars.”-­‐  Neil  deGrasse  TysonTIME:  10  Questions  for  Neil  deGrasse  Tyson.

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