Monthly Review Of The Tx Economy (Dec 2009)
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Monthly Review Of The Tx Economy (Dec 2009)

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Provided by The Texas Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Provided by The Texas Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
By Ali Anari and Mark G. Dotzour

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Monthly Review Of The Tx Economy (Dec 2009) Monthly Review Of The Tx Economy (Dec 2009) Document Transcript

  • AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY Monthly Review of the Texas EconomyBy Ali Anari and Mark G. Dotzour TRTECHNICAL REPORT 1 8 6 2 DECEMBER 2009
  • Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 By Ali Anari and Mark G. DotzourThe Texas economy lost 272,100 nonfarm jobs from November 2008 to November 2009,an annual job loss of 2.5 percent. Over the same period, the U.S. economy lost more than4.65 million jobs or 3.4 percent of its total nonfarm jobs. However, the nation’s labormarket is bottoming out (Table 1 and Figure 1). The state’s seasonally adjustedunemployment rate rose from 5.4 percent in November 2008 to 8 percent in November2009, while the U.S. rate rose from 6.8 percent to 10 percent during the same period(Table 1).Table 2 shows Texas industries ranked by employment growth rate from November 2008to November 2009. Table 3 shows the relative importance of the state’s industries basedon number of employees.The state’s government sector added 88,200 jobs from November 2008 to November2009, an annual growth rate of 4.9 percent (Table 2 and Figure 2). Government job gainsconsisted of 57,700 in local government, 30,100 in state government and 400 in federalgovernment. The state’s education and health services industry added 60,400 jobs from November2008 to November 2009, an annual growth rate of 4.6 percent (Table 2 and Figure 3).Jobs gained consisted of 60,300 in health care and social assistance and 100 in educationservices.The other services industry (repair and maintenance, personal and laundry services,religious, civic and professional organizations) gained 11,500 jobs over the year, a 3.2percent increase (Table 2 and Figure 4).Financial activities (finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing services) added1,200 jobs from November 2008 to November 2009, an annual increase rate of 0.2percent (Table 2 and Figure 5). In this industry finance and insurance gained 1,800 jobswhile real estate, rental and leasing lost 600 jobs.The state’s leisure and hospitality industry (arts, entertainment, recreation,accommodations and food services) lost 4,100 jobs from November 2008 to November2009, a 0.4 percent annual rate of decline (Table 2 and Figure 6).The state’s trade industry lost 77,800 jobs from November 2008 to November 2009, a 4.5percent annual rate of decline (Table 2 and Figure 7). Trade job losses comprised 44,800jobs in wholesale trade and 33,000 jobs in retail trade. Trade is the state’s largest industryafter government, accounting for 15.9 percent of nonfarm employment (Table 3).The state’s professional and business services industry lost 65,300 jobs from November2008 to November 2009, an annual rate decrease of 4.9 percent (Table 2 and Figure 8).Jobs lost consisted of 41,100 in administrative and support services, 24,000 in
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009professional, scientific and technical services and 200 jobs in the management ofcompanies and enterprises.The state’s information industry (internet service providers, web search portals,publishing industries, broadcasting and telecommunications) lost 14,000 jobs fromNovember 2008 to November 2009, a 6.5 percent rate decrease (Table 2 and Figure 9).The state’s transportation, warehousing, and utilities industry lost 39,200 jobs over theyear, a 8.8 percent rate decrease (Table 2 and Figure 10). All job losses were in thetransportation and warehousing industry.The state’s manufacturing industry lost 93,800 jobs from November 2008 to November2009, a rate decrease of 10.2 percent (Table 2 and Figure 11). Durable goodsmanufacturing lost 69,800 jobs while nondurable goods manufacturing lost 24,000 jobs.Major job losses in the state’s durable goods manufacturing industry were in fabricatedmetal product manufacturing (35,100 jobs), transportation equipment manufacturing(3,800 jobs), nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing (3,000), computer andelectronic product manufacturing (13,300 jobs), wood products (2,900 jobs), machinerymanufacturing (4,600), furniture and related product manufacturing (3,000), and primarymetal manufacturing (1,900 jobs). Major job losses in the state’s nondurablemanufacturing industry were in printing and related support manufacturing (1,900 jobs),plastic and rubber manufacturing (2,800 jobs), and paper manufacturing (1,000 jobs).The state’s chemical manufacturing industry gained 400 jobs over the same period.The state’s mining and logging industry lost 30,000 jobs from November 2008 toNovember 2009, representing 12.5 percent of its labor force (Table 2 and Figure 12). Theaverage number of active rotary rigs has substantially decreased from 851 in December2008 to 460.8 in December 2009 according to Hughes Tool Co.The state’s construction industry lost 109,200 jobs from November 2008 to November2009, a 16.5 percent rate decrease (Table 2 and Figure 13). Jobs lost consisted of 28,300jobs in heavy and civil engineering construction, 54,800 jobs in specialty tradecontractors, and 26,100 in construction of buildings.Texas Metropolitan Statistical AreasOnly one Texas metro area, McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, experienced a positiveemployment growth rate from November 2008 to November 2009. Twenty-five metroareas experienced net job losses (Table 4).The annual employment growth rate for the Austin-Round Rock metro area fromNovember 2008 to November 2009 was –0.6 percent. The metro area ranked second inemployment growth rate (Table 4 and Figure 14).The Dallas-Plano-Irving metro area’s annual employment growth rate from November2008 to November 2009 was –2.1 percent, ranking the area 16th in employment growthrate (Table 4 and Figure 15). 2
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009The annual employment growth rate for the Fort Worth-Arlington metro area fromNovember 2008 to November 2009 was –0.8 percent. The area ranked fourth inemployment growth rate (Table 4 and Figure 16).Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown’s annual employment growth rate from November 2008 toNovember 2009 was –3.4 percent, ranking the metro area 23rd in employment growthrate (Table 4 and Figure 17).The annual employment growth rate for the San Antonio metro area over the year was –0.7, placing the metro area third in employment growth rate (Table 4 and Figure 18).The state’s actual unemployment rate in November 2009 was 7.9 percent. Amarillo hadthe lowest unemployment rate followed by Lubbock, Midland, Abilene, and CollegeStation-Bryan (Table 5). Table 1 Texas and U.S. Labor Markets ChangeNonfarm employment Nov. 2009 Nov. 2008 Absolute PercentTexas 10,440,500 10,712,600 –272,100 –2.5United States 132,223,000 136,882,000 –4,659,000 –3.4 Actual Seasonally AdjustedUnemployment Rate Nov. 2009 Nov. 2008 Nov. 2009 Nov. 2008Texas 7.9 5.4 8.0 5.4United States 9.4 6.5 10.0 6.8Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics 3
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Table 2Texas Industries Ranked by Employment Growth Rate from November 2008 to November 2009 ChangeRank Industry Nov. 2009 Nov. 2008 Absolute Percent 1 Government 1,907,600 1,819,400 88,200 4.9 2 Education & Health Services 1,384,600 1,324,200 60,400 4.6 3 Other Services 368,100 356,600 11,500 3.2 4 Financial Activities 652,100 650,900 1,200 0.2 5 Leisure & Hospitality 993,500 997,600 –4,100 –0.4 6 Trade 1,663,200 1,741,000 –77,800 –4.5 7 Professional & Business Services 1,280,100 1,345,400 –65,300 –4.9 8 Information 200,300 214,300 –14,000 –6.5 9 Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 404,300 443,500 –39,200 –8.810 Manufacturing 822,300 916,100 –93,800 –10.211 Mining and logging 209,900 239,900 –30,000 –12.512 Construction 554,500 663,700 –109,200 –16.5Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&MUniversity Table 3 Texas Industries’ and Government Shares of Employment November NovemberIndustry 2009 1990Mining and logging 2.0 2.3Construction 5.3 4.9Manufacturing 7.9 13.2Trade 15.9 18.0Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 3.9 4.2Information 1.9 2.5Financial Activities 6.2 6.3Professional and Business Services 12.3 9.2Education and Health Services 13.3 9.6Leisure and Hospitality 9.5 8.2Other Services 3.5 3.7Government Sector 18.3 18.0Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&MUniversity 4
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Table 4 Texas Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Employment Growth Rate, November 2008 to November 2009Rank Metro Area Percent Growth Rate 1 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 1.2 2 Austin-Round Rock –0.6 3 San Antonio –0.7 4 Fort Worth-Arlington –0.8 4 Laredo –0.8 6 El Paso –1.3 7 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood –1.6 7 Amarillo –1.6 7 Sherman-Denison –1.610 Texarkana –1.711 Brownsville-Harlingen –1.811 San Angelo –1.811 Lubbock –1.814 Waco –1.915 Tyler –2.016 Dallas-Plano-Irving –2.117 Wichita Falls –2.318 Odessa –2.5 Texas –2.519 Abilene –2.820 Longview –2.920 Midland –2.922 Corpus Christi –3.123 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown –3.424 Beaumont-Port Arthur –3.525 College Station-Bryan –3.726 Victoria –3.8Source: Texas Workforce Commission 5
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Table 5Texas Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Unemployment Rate, November 2009Rank Metro Area Unemployment Rate, Percent 1 Amarillo 5.3 2 Lubbock 5.4 3 Midland 5.6 4 Abilene 5.9 4 College Station-Bryan 5.9 6 Texarkana 6.3 7 San Angelo 6.4 8 San Antonio 6.8 8 Austin-Round Rock 6.910 Waco 6.911 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood 7.011 Corpus Christi 7.513 Wichita Falls 7.513 Longview 7.615 Victoria 7.615 Tyler 7.917 Dallas-Plano-Irving 7.9 Texas 7.918 Fort Worth-Arlington 8.018 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown 8.220 Sherman-Denison 8.221 Odessa 8.522 Laredo 8.623 El Paso 9.224 Beaumont-Port Arthur 10.425 Brownsville-Harlingen 10.526 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 11.2Source: Texas Workforce Commission 6
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Figure 1 Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates for United States and Texas, 2007–2009 Percent Texas 4 U.S. 0 -4 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Figure 2 Employment Growth Rates in Texas Government Sector, 2007–2009 6 Percent 4 2 0 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 7
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Figure 3Employment Growth Rates in Texas Education and Health Services Industry, 2007–2009 6 Percent 4 2 0 -2 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Figure 4 Employment Growth Rates in Texas Other Services Industry, 2007–2009 4 Percent 2 0 -2 -4 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 8
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Figure 5 Employment Growth Rates in Texas Financial Activities Industry, 2007–2009 4 Percent 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Figure 6 Employment Growth Rates in Texas Leisure and Hospitality Industry, 2007–2009 5 Percent 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 9
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Figure 7 Employment Growth Rates in Texas Trade Industry, 2007–2009 4 Percent 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Figure 8 Employment Growth Rates in Texas Professional and Business Services Industry, 2007–2009 8 Percent 4 0 -4 -8 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 10
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Figure 9 Employment Growth Rates in Texas Information Industry, 2007–2009 2 Percent 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Figure 10Employment Growth Rates in Texas Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Industry, 2007–2009 Percent 5 0 -5 -10 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 11
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Figure 11 Employment Growth Rates in Texas Manufacturing Industry, 2007–2009 4 Percent 0 -4 -8 -12 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Figure 12 Employment Growth Rates in Texas Mining and logging Industry, 2007–2009 Percent 20 10 0 -10 -20 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 12
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Figure 13 Employment Growth Rates in Texas Construction Industry, 2007–2009 10 Percent 0 -10 -20 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Figure 14 Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates, Austin-Round Rock, 2007–2009 6 Percent 4 2 0 -2 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 13
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Figure 15 Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates, Dallas-Plano-Irving, 2007–2009 4 Percent 2 0 -2 -4 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Figure 16 Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates, Fort Worth-Arlington, 2007–2009 4 Percent 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Year:M onth 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 14
  • Anari/Dotzour Monthly Review of the Texas Economy — December 2009 Figure 17 Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates, Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, 2007–2009 6 Percent 4 2 0 -2 -4 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Figure 18 Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates, San Antonio, 2007–2009 4 Percent 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Year:Month 2007M01 2007M07 2008M01 2008M07 2009M01 2009M07 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 15