Case shiller-indexes-report-q1-2013
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Home prices surged by 10.2% in the first quarter of 2013, the first double-digit gain since the peak of the housing bubble in 2006. Home prices increased year over year in 296, or 77%, of metropolitan ...

Home prices surged by 10.2% in the first quarter of 2013, the first double-digit gain since the peak of the housing bubble in 2006. Home prices increased year over year in 296, or 77%, of metropolitan areas in 1Q13. Price gains are projected to decelerate from a double-digit pace in 2014 as increasing mortgage rates and home prices decrease affordability.

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Case shiller-indexes-report-q1-2013 Case shiller-indexes-report-q1-2013 Document Transcript

  • CoreLogic® Case-Shiller Indexes® Report FIRST QUARTER 2013
  • CORELOGIC® CASE-SHILLER INDEXES® REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 22 CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEXES – MAJOR MARKET OVERVIEW ► Home Prices Surged in the First Quarter of 2013, the First Double-Digit Gain Since the Peak of the Housing Bubble ► Nationally, Home Prices Are Still Significantly Below Their Peak, Reducing Concerns of a New Housing Bubble ► Price Appreciation Is Projected to Moderate in 2014 As Home Prices and Mortgage Interest Rates Rise and Home Inventories Increase U.S. HOME PRICES 10.2%IN Q1 2013 Home prices surged by 10.2 percent in the first quarter of 2013, the first double-digit gain since the peak of the housing bubble in 2006. Prices in metro areas at the center of the housing bubble rebounded sharply, with Phoenix up 23 percent, Sacramento up 21 percent, Detroit up 18 percent and Miami up 14 percent. Extremely limited inventory in each of these metros is boosting prices. Similarly, Bismarck, N.D., is up 13 percent due to strong demand from oil and natural gas workers, which is outpacing supply. PRICES ROSE IN 296OUT OF 384 METROS IN Q1 2013 Home prices increased year over year in 296, or 77 percent, of metropolitan areas (Core Based Statistical Areas) in the first quarter of 2013. Although some metro areas are still posting year-over-year decreases, it is likely that all metro markets will post positive annual appreciation by year’s end. “Record levels of affordability, a slowly improving job market, and very small inventories of new and existing homes for sale will continue to drive U.S. home price appreciation during the summer.” Dr. David Stiff, chief economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes cover more than 380 U.S. markets. This includes thousands of ZIP codes, counties, metro areas and state markets. Proprietary CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price trend information is supplemented by Federal Housing Finance Agency data.
  • CORELOGIC® CASE-SHILLER INDEXES® REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 3 HOME PRICE PROJECTIONS* ► ONE-YEAR TREND HOME PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BY 6.5%from the first quarter of 2013 through the same quarter of 2014. Record levels of affordability, a slowly improving job market, and tight inventories of new and existing homes will continue to drive double-digit appreciation through the summer. The supply of active listings ranges from three months in Detroit, Phoenix and Sacramento to five and a half months in Miami, indicating sellers’ markets. As home prices rise in lagging markets, the national rate of appreciation also increases. “We expect strong buying activity this spring will lead to stabilization of home prices in most lagging markets, resulting in rising home prices in nearly every metro area by the end of 2013.” Dr. David Stiff, chief economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller *The CoreLogic Case-Shiller forecasts are produced by CoreLogic and Moody’s Analytics. CONTINUED ON PAGE 4
  • CORELOGIC® CASE-SHILLER INDEXES® REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 44 HOME PRICE PROJECTIONS* ► LONGER-TERM TRENDS THE CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEXES PROJECT A CONTINUED TREND OF RISING HOME PRICES OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. HOME PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE OF 4.0%from the first quarter of 2013 through the first quarter of 2018. Price gains are projected to decelerate from a double-digit pace in 2014 as increasing mortgage rates and home prices decrease affordability. Better balance between supply and demand also moderates price increases. Homeowners whose properties had been underwater before the recent price surge may consider selling to lock in gains. With more favorable pricing, developers also ramp up building activity, which adds to available supply. Home price appreciation is projected to slow to 5.6 percent between the first quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015. *The CoreLogic Case-Shiller forecasts are produced by CoreLogic and Moody’s Analytics.
  • CORELOGIC® CASE-SHILLER INDEXES® REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 55 U.S. METROS HOME PRICE HIGHLIGHTS POPULATION 950,000+ ► Five metro areas recording largest year-over-year gains through the first quarter of 2013 SAN JOSE PHOENIX SAN FRANCISCO SACRAMENTO LAS VEGAS +23.7% +22.8% +21.1% +21.0% +20.9% ► Five metro areas with year-over-year declines or smallest gains through the first quarter of 2013 LONG ISLAND KANSAS CITY, MO HARTFORD NEWARK EDISON, NJ -1.4% -0.4% +1.2% +1.2% +1.4% ► Five metro areas with largest three-year home price gains through the first quarter of 2013 DETROIT PHOENIX SAN JOSE WARREN, MICH HOUSTON +36.5% +18.8% +18.5% +14.5% +14.3% ► Five metro areas with largest three-year home price declines through the first quarter of 2013 VIRGINIA BEACH CAMDEN, NJ TUCSON CHICAGO EDISON, NJ -9.0% -8.5% -7.0% -6.5% -6.5% “Although a small number of metropolitan areas show year-over-year declines, it is likely that home prices in these cities will turn positive by the end of the year.” Dr. David Stiff, chief economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller
  • CORELOGIC® CASE-SHILLER INDEXES® REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 66 U.S. METROS HOME PRICE PROJECTION HIGHLIGHTS POPULATION 950,000+ ► Five metro areas with highest one-year projected increase through the first quarter of 2014 SAN FRANCISCO HARTFORD BALTIMORE LOS ANGELES SACRAMENTO +10.5% +9.8% +9.6% +8.4% +7.8% ► Only four metro areas have projected declines through the first quarter of 2014 MIAMI FT. LAUDERDALE ORLANDO HOUSTON -2.7% -2.6% -1.6% -0.1% “Building activity has increased more slowly than expected, mostly because of the uneven economic recovery. Builder confidence, which leads to construction activity, has been soaring, so the pace of new construction is expected to increase more rapidly.” Dr. David Stiff, chief economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller
  • CORELOGIC® CASE-SHILLER INDEXES® REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 77 Forecast Actual MAJOR MARKETS HIGHLIGHTS ► Year-Over-Year Home Price Changes U.S. Single-Family -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 062006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average annual appreciation since 1976 (5%) Sources: CoreLogic Case-Shiller, Moody’s Analytics ► Metro Area 3-Year Price Changes (Q1 2010 – Q1 2013) Sources: CoreLogic Case-Shiller, FHFA, Moody’s Analytics 10% Increase or More 0% to 10% Increase -5% to 0% Decline -5% Decline or More
  • CORELOGIC® CASE-SHILLER INDEXES® REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 88 CONTINUED ON PAGE 9 SELECTED METRO AREAS METRO AREA POPULATION (2012) CHANGE IN HOME PRICES (Q1 2012 TO Q1 2013) CHANGE IN HOME PRICES (Q1 2010 TO Q1 2013) FORECAST CHANGE IN HOME PRICES (Q1 2013 TO Q1 2014) San Jose, Calif. 1,894,388 23.7% 18.5% 7.4% Phoenix 4,329,534 22.8% 18.8% 5.1% San Francisco 1,821,243 21.1% 13.3% 10.5% Sacramento, Calif. 2,196,482 21.0% 6.6% 7.8% Las Vegas 2,000,759 20.9% 6.2% 5.6% Atlanta 5,439,950 19.2% -5.4% 4.9% Detroit 1,792,365 18.2% 36.5% 5.7% Los Angeles 9,962,789 17.6% 11.0% 8.4% Riverside, Calif. 4,350,096 15.0% 10.0% 0.2% Orlando, Fla. 2,223,674 14.6% 6.3% -1.6% Miami 2,591,035 14.2% 13.7% -2.7% Warren, Mich. 2,499,695 12.9% 14.5% 2.8% Houston 6,204,161 12.2% 14.3% -0.1% Tampa, Fla. 2,842,878 11.9% 2.2% 2.3% Salt Lake City 1,161,715 11.5% 7.0% 5.9% W. Palm Beach, Fla. 1,356,545 11.4% 1.2% 0.6% Tucson, Ariz. 992,394 11.0% -7.0% 7.2% Jacksonville, Fla. 1,377,850 9.9% -3.3% 1.4% Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 1,815,137 9.5% 8.0% -2.6% San Antonio 2,234,003 9.2% 9.6% 3.9% Chicago 7,945,578 8.6% -6.5% 6.5% Nashville, Tenn. 1,644,703 7.5% 4.3% 1.2% Indianapolis, Ind. 1,798,634 7.4% 2.6% 0.7% Austin, Texas 1,834,303 7.0% 8.9% 2.3% Virginia Beach, Va. 1,694,900 6.0% -9.0% 2.8% New Orleans, La. 1,205,374 5.9% 3.1% 3.3% U.S. METROS Q1 2013 3-year change: 3.5% 1-year change: 10.2% 1-year forecast: 6.5%
  • CORELOGIC® CASE-SHILLER INDEXES® REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 99 METRO AREA POPULATION (2012) CHANGE IN HOME PRICES (Q1 2012 TO Q1 2013) CHANGE IN HOME PRICES (Q1 2010 TO Q1 2013) FORECAST CHANGE IN HOME PRICES (Q1 2013 TO Q1 2014) Richmond, Va. 1,282,305 5.8% -3.9% 3.3% Milwaukee, Wis. 1,566,981 5.0% -3.9% 4.8% St. Louis, Mo. 2,845,721 5.0% -6.2% 2.6% Columbus, Ohio 1,878,714 4.9% 3.6% 3.9% Baltimore 2,753,149 3.9% -3.1% 9.6% Fort Worth, Texas 2,213,738 3.4% 6.5% 3.6% Camden, N.J. 1,254,461 2.4% -8.5% 5.5% Raleigh, N.C. 1,188,564 2.0% -0.6% 0.7% Philadelphia 4,050,793 1.9% -4.7% 5.4% Edison, N.J. 2,360,602 1.4% -6.5% 3.9% Hartford, Conn. 1,214,400 1.2% -6.5% 9.8% Kansas City, Mo. 2,064,630 -0.4% 0.8% 0.7% Nassau-Suffolk (Long Island), N.Y. 2,848,506 -1.4% -3.4% 2.8% SELECTED METRO AREAS U.S. METROS Q1 2013 3-year change: 3.5% 1-year change: 10.2% 1-year forecast: 6.5%
  • CORELOGIC® CASE-SHILLER INDEXES® REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2013 © 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 1010 CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEXES METHODOLOGY THE LONGEST-STANDING, MOST HIGHLY RECOGNIZED BRAND OF HOME PRICE INDEXES CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes use the repeat sales method for index calculation, analyzing data on single-family properties that have two or more recorded sales transactions. Changes in housing types and sizes, or changes in the physical characteristics of houses are specifically excluded from the calculations to avoid incorrectly affecting the index value. The principal variable used for index calculation is the price change between two arms-length sales of the same single-family home. Sales pairs with approved data are aggregated with all other sales pairs found in a particular Census division, state, metro area, county, or ZIP code market to independently calculate each Case-Shiller index. The national index is a composite of the Case-Shiller Census division indexes. Different weights are assigned to different changes in home prices, based on their statistical distribution in that geographic region. The weighting schemes include price anomalies, high turnover frequency, time interval adjustments and initial home value. Case-Shiller Indexes include data covering thousands of ZIP codes, counties, metro areas and state markets. ABOUT CORELOGIC CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in the United States and Australia. The Company’s combined data from public, contributory, and proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, transportation and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in seven countries. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com. CoreLogic, the CoreLogic logo and CoreLogic Case-Shiller are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. CONTACT For more information, contact Dave Hurt at 301-365-0407 (dhurt@corelogic.com) or Brian Gunn at 415-536-3537 (bgunn@corelogic.com). 17-CSSHINDX2013Q1-0813-00