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Towards a Clarification of Terms     Ruud van der Helm    Alternate Perspectives, Fall 2012            Heather Schlegel
probablepossibilityplausibility
probability possibleplausibility
probabilitypossibility plausible
distinctabsolute/subjective   practical
probable  Mathematical Concept  That may be proved              likeliness                 The feeling of certainty repeti...
possible Extract the possible               Binary   Impossibilities are continent               potential         And mos...
GBN 2x2 MatrixMost Important Variables                           Most uncertain Variables
GBN 2x2 MatrixEquallyMost Important VariablesPossible                   Most uncertain Variables
plausible Exists in our minds        Plausible ≠ possible              Reasonable Subjective Credible          Convincing ...
probability likely to happen
possibility can it happen?
plausibilityconvinced could happen
probablepossibleplausible
Towards a clarification of terms
Towards a clarification of terms
Towards a clarification of terms
Towards a clarification of terms
Towards a clarification of terms
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Towards a clarification of terms

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What do plausible, probable and possible mean? And when should you use these terms. This presentation is an overview of Ruud van der Helm's paper on this subject.

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Transcript of "Towards a clarification of terms"

  1. 1. Towards a Clarification of Terms Ruud van der Helm Alternate Perspectives, Fall 2012 Heather Schlegel
  2. 2. probablepossibilityplausibility
  3. 3. probability possibleplausibility
  4. 4. probabilitypossibility plausible
  5. 5. distinctabsolute/subjective practical
  6. 6. probable Mathematical Concept That may be proved likeliness The feeling of certainty repetitive systems chance Transform into certaintySufficient certainties– B de Jouvenel Not all futures haveHas an appearance of truth probabilities, but we are interested in them anyway. Uncertainty through changeIndividual event unknown, result is no surprise
  7. 7. possible Extract the possible Binary Impossibilities are continent potential And mostly based on timelineChallenged by absolute and subjective reasons Can be absolute conceivable 4 Type of Possible (Bloch) • Formal Our Job: Open Possibilities!! • Factual nonsense Probable ≠ possible • Objects’ • Objective Not everything possible exists contradictory
  8. 8. GBN 2x2 MatrixMost Important Variables Most uncertain Variables
  9. 9. GBN 2x2 MatrixEquallyMost Important VariablesPossible Most uncertain Variables
  10. 10. plausible Exists in our minds Plausible ≠ possible Reasonable Subjective Credible Convincing Most Problematic Qualifier Judgments Based on the argument, story as real Belief that a future can be real Does an informed audience believe?Concepts Can be improbable
  11. 11. probability likely to happen
  12. 12. possibility can it happen?
  13. 13. plausibilityconvinced could happen
  14. 14. probablepossibleplausible
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