#wfs12 #besthf                              07.29.2012The Demographic Transition                      Emily Empel I @local...
Females Aged >100          DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL                                                   Females Aged 90-...
Current (Final) Model
11                                                                                                                    10.6...
Africa                                        Asia                            10          Latin America and the Caribbean ...
Population Change Model+Birth Rates                               Death Rates                                             ...
Agricultural        ~40/1000                                                 Birth rate                                   ...
Variables
Food supply improvements. Public health   improvements. Decline in infectious disease.   Health education. Literacy. Livin...
65  Age        Male        Female  15        Stage 1: Expanding   Stage 2: Expanding   Stage 3: Stationary   Stage 4: Cont...
Stag  e    Country   2003 Birth   2003 Death 2011 Birth   2011 Death  1    Nigeria  38            13.7        35.5        ...
Climate Change.   Food Preferences.   Resource   Constraints.   Energy.Global Implications
The Model
Selected Variables      4     10     6B      2      5     3B       0       0       0           1     4     7    10     13 ...
Selected Variables     400 M         4        10     200 M         2         5         0         0         0              ...
65  Age        Male        Female  15        Stage 1: Expanding   Stage 2: Expanding   Stage 3: Stationary   Stage 4: Cont...
Actual Population Pyramids
Literacy    VariableThe Model with Literacy Variable
Selected Variables   4   4  6B   2   2  3B     0     0     0            1        4        7       10          13   16    1...
Total pop        6B      4.5 B        3B      1.5 B          0              1   4     7    10      13   16     19 22 25   ...
Desired BR     4     3     2     1     0         1   4     7    10    13     16    19 22 25     28   31   34   37   40    ...
Emily Empel I @localrat                               Heather Schlegel I @HeathervescentStructural Change: Education
Variables
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The Demographic Transition: A Systems Model

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The Demographic Transition is a model that shows population changes as a country moves from an undeveloped nation to a more developed nation.

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  • The systems model developed considers the following variables and behaviors as key in understanding the essential theory of the demographic transition. First, the amount of females is broken up into 11 different stocks ranging from “Age 0-4” to “Age 50 and Up”. The incremental stocks, or cohort breakdowns, were determined by (A) infant mortality rate and (B) female reproductive changes that take place between “Ages 15-19”. (See Endnote ? for a detailed variable list).  On the right side of the model, each cohort stock is linked to a “Death Rate”, “Age Specific Mortality Rate (ASMR)”, and “Deaths”, which in turn determine the number of “Survivors” per cohort. The crude death rate is defined as the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people. Whereas the ASMR is refers to the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people of a given age. Since we wanted to manipulate the model, the ASMR feeds into the crude death rate and is combined in turn with a general mortality factor. So, for instance if a new technology is introduced within society we can observe its impact by altering the “General Mortality Factor” variable. The left side of the model is focused on “Desired Family Size” and the “Birth Rate”. Beginning at cohort, “Age 15-19”, birth rate per cohort is determined by factoring in the “Desired Birth Rate” which stems from “Desired Family Size”. The “Mother to Daughter Ratio” influences the “Net Change” in “Desired Family Size”. When daughters observe that less infants make it to adulthood they are inclined to have a greater number of children. Conversely, when accounting for decreases in birth rates, as more infants live to adulthood and it costs more to have a child the “Desired Family Size” decreases.
  • The Demographic Transition: A Systems Model

    1. 1. #wfs12 #besthf 07.29.2012The Demographic Transition Emily Empel I @localrat Heather Schlegel I @Heathervescent
    2. 2. Females Aged >100 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Females Aged 90-99 Females Aged 80-89 Females Aged 70-79 Females Aged 60-69 Female Birth Rate Female Births Female Deaths Female Death Rate Females Aged 50-59 Technology Birth Control Education Improvements Females Aged 40-49 Females Aged 30-39 Females Aged 20-29 Females Aged 10-19 Females Aged <1-9First Model
    3. 3. Current (Final) Model
    4. 4. 11 10.6 High 10 Medium Low 9 8.9 8 Population (in billions) 7.4 7 6.1 6 5 4 3 2.5 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050UN Population Projections
    5. 5. Africa Asia 10 Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania 9 Northern America Europe 8 Population (in billions) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2250 2250 2300UN Population Projections by Region
    6. 6. Population Change Model+Birth Rates Death Rates - = Growth RateThe Demographic Transition
    7. 7. Agricultural ~40/1000 Birth rate Growth rate Death rate Industrial ~15/1000The Demographic Transition
    8. 8. Variables
    9. 9. Food supply improvements. Public health improvements. Decline in infectious disease. Health education. Literacy. Living Costs. Urbanization. Value Systems.Influencing Factors
    10. 10. 65 Age Male Female 15 Stage 1: Expanding Stage 2: Expanding Stage 3: Stationary Stage 4: Contracting Developing DevelopedPopulation Pyramids
    11. 11. Stag e Country 2003 Birth 2003 Death 2011 Birth 2011 Death 1 Nigeria 38 13.7 35.5 16 Guatemal 2 a 35 6.7 26.9 4.9 3 Mexico 21.9 4.9 19.1 4.8 4 Sweden 9.7 10.5 10.1 10.2Stages and Example Data
    12. 12. Climate Change. Food Preferences. Resource Constraints. Energy.Global Implications
    13. 13. The Model
    14. 14. Selected Variables 4 10 6B 2 5 3B 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria Desired family size : Nigeria Total pop : NigeriaBOT - Baseline
    15. 15. Selected Variables 400 M 4 10 200 M 2 5 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Age 0 to 4 : Nigeria Desired BR : Nigeria Desired family size : NigeriaBOT - Baseline
    16. 16. 65 Age Male Female 15 Stage 1: Expanding Stage 2: Expanding Stage 3: Stationary Stage 4: Contracting Developing DevelopedPopulation Pyramids
    17. 17. Actual Population Pyramids
    18. 18. Literacy VariableThe Model with Literacy Variable
    19. 19. Selected Variables 4 4 6B 2 2 3B 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria_education Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria Desired BR : Nigeria_education Desired BR : Nigeria Total pop : Nigeria_education Total pop : NigeriaBOT with Literacy Variable compared
    20. 20. Total pop 6B 4.5 B 3B 1.5 B 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Total pop : Nigeria_education Total pop : NigeriaTotal Population BOT with Variable
    21. 21. Desired BR 4 3 2 1 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Desired BR : Nigeria_education Desired BR : NigeriaBOT Birth Rate with Variable
    22. 22. Emily Empel I @localrat Heather Schlegel I @HeathervescentStructural Change: Education
    23. 23. Variables

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