No KPI is good but thinking makes it so Engage- Retention ment Monetis- ation Virality CAC LTCV
Virality and valueDiffusion dynamics of games on online social networks, Wei, Yang, Adamic, de Araújo and Rehkihttp://www-personal.umich.edu/~ladamic/papers/FBgames/FBgameDiffusion.pdf Play after day 1? No Yes Recruited by friend Other 10% of inviters responsible for 50% of successful invitations
Engagement, retention, and value Which pattern is best?
Monetisation and value Almost all Experience differences Individual differencesHow many • interpretable orpeople • stochastic A few Even fewer Almost none Nothing A bit A lot A whole lot Pay how much?
Time and value Data: Sonamine, aggregatated over >12 casual games http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/NickLim/20120626/173051/Freemium_games_are_not_normal.php
Predictives: segmentationthere are many techniques foridentifying groupsnew ones are emerging e.g. graph-basedexpected future behaviour isa strong focus e.g. Player Lifecycle Management ™ ConvertSoon™esp. behaviours which link to ChurnSoon™KPIs PurchaseMoreSoon™ InfluenceSoon™what you do with the groups source: Sonamineis a different question...
It can also be opaqueDmitry Nozhnin, Head of analytics and monetisation, Innova: “We have tested over 60 individual and game- specific metrics. None of them are critical enough to cause churn. None of them! We havent found a silver bullet -- that magic barrier preventing players from enjoying the game.” http://gamasutra.com/view/feature/170472/predicting_churn_datamining_your_.php
We do hundreds and hundred of experiments Most every quarter. fail.Ken Rudin, General Manager, Analytics, Zyngahttp://tdwi.org/videos/2010/08/actionable-analytics-at-zynga-leveraging-big-data-to-make-online-games-more-fun-and-social.aspx Sometimes people do 1-2 A/B tests per week and then complain that it doesn’t work for them – they probably need to 5-10X their A/B test output in order to get a win or two per week. Andrew Chen, 2 July 2012http://andrewchen.co/2012/07/02/what-does-a-growth-team-work-on-day-to-day
Quant variation rules ‘you need to invite 3 friends to get to the next level on Bubble Witch Saga….’ Alex Dale, CMO King.com Facebook Mobile Hack London March 2012
Quant variation rules not 2, not 4 ‘you need to invite 3 friends to get to the next level on Bubble Witch Saga….’ Alex Dale, CMO King.com Facebook Mobile Hack London March 2012
Answers don’t always make sense We don’t understand what’s going on. All we know is we’re going to keep runningeconomist in residence to look atJune 23 2012 Value hires Greek these experiments to try and understand better what it is that our customers are telling us. And there are clearly things thatshared currency issues. we don’t understand because a simple analysis of these statistics implies very contradictory yet reproducible results. So clearly there are things that we don’t understand, and we’re trying to develop theories for them. It’s just an exciting time but also a very troubling time. Gabe Newell, Founder, Valve Oct 23 2011 http://www.geekwire.com/2011/experiments-video-game-economics-valves-gabe-newell/
What’s the question?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt-zIMaMD24