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《经济学人》(The economist)双语版中文版 2011 11-5

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  • 1. “经济学人研究会”成员招募简章一、组织介绍 “经济学人研究会(CNESA) ”简称“经研会” ,是一个以英国《经济学人》杂志为主体的学习与研究组织,由“经济学人翻译团”与“经济学人中文网”于 2011 年联合成立。“经研会”是目前国内最大、最专业的《经济学人》周边研究组织。 到目前为止, “经研会”共在英国帝国理工大学、香港城市大学、上海交大、南京大学、中央财经大学等 24 所高等院校设有分会。“经济学人翻译团”和“经济学人中文网”也累计拥有超过 30 万名相关爱好者。 “经研会”的成立将使国内外更多相关爱好者和在校学生获得一个更为开放也更加专业的交流场所。二、发展方向 “经研会”平台是一个主要面向大学生群体的开放型平台,它以《经济学人》为主题,通过翻译、研究等形式提高成员的英语、经济、分析和实践能力。建立在此基础上,汇聚更多求知上进、思维敏锐的青年人才,共同创造一种全新的学习方法和思维模式。组织旨在创建一个让大家各抒己见的平台,把先进的思想传播开来,让更多人听到真正属于大学生最真实的声音。三、工作内容各校“经研会”前期工作内容主要分为四个部分,详见下表:1.参与翻译每期《经济学人》杂志上的部分文章,各分会将按照不同分工设立:翻译组、校对组、资料组和评论组,真正做到对文章的研究和深层学习。2.参与每周“SCI(大学生消费指数)”的统计和编辑工作,并在新的统计数据公布后进行相关的分析和研究,对大学生群体的消费曲线、周期规律和物价情况作出预测。3.参与不定期的校内或校际活动策划工作之中,以最新鲜的形式展现团队最出色的一面。4.参与“经研会”内部资料刊的撰写与采编工作,将涵盖经济、英语、科技、社会、文学等不同分类的优秀文章进行汇总,凝聚为一份属于大学生自己的灵魂载体。四、招募标准“经研会”对于各校成员数量有较为严格的要求,理论上每校最多不超过 20 名成员,所以对于成员的要求也会相对提高,详见下表:1.具备优秀的语言表达能力、良好的社会责任感和清晰的逻辑思维。2.拥有阅读和写作的习惯,这是一个人修养的体现。3.愿意付出一定的时间参与到“经研会”的学习和研究之中。4.要求通过 CET6 考试(只针对参与到翻译的成员)5.通过各院校主席面试,以上 4 点均为基准条件,最终结果将以面试为主。
  • 2. 五、相关福利1.凡“经研会”成员均可享受到每期《经济学人》英文/双语版 PDF 的优先阅读。2.成员在任超过一年且有卓越贡献的,毕业后将颁发“特殊贡献奖”并提供相关推荐信。3.“经研会”将为成员提供经过筛选的英语考试相关学习资料,共大家参考学习。4.在“经研会”网站上享有特定的“院校成员”专用用户组,拥有特定权限。5.有资格参与由“经研会”主办的成员内部校际比赛或活动。六、报名方式请根据你所在的院校与各自的主席进行沟通,详见下表:南京大学 香港城市大学 西南财经大学主席:蔡阳凌 主席:邱子珺 主席:陈默邮箱:yangling.cai@cnesa.net 邮箱:zijunqiu@cnesa.net 邮箱:fireart1990@cnesa.net上海交通大学 英国帝国理工大学 华东理工大学主席:陈斐韵 主席:冯贺 主席:李禹辰邮箱:mikichan@cnesa.net 邮箱: 邮箱:ecust_lyc@cnesa.net江南大学 中央财经学院 中国矿业大学主席:钮成拓 主席:刘康 主席:孙逸多邮箱:shingtokniu@cnesa.net 邮箱:liuk1990@cnesa.net 邮箱:angelsun@cnesa.net国际关系学院 中国农业大学 北京农学院主席:余凯茜 主席:郭太华 主席:张硕邮箱:uirykx@cnesa.net 邮箱:guotaihua33@cnesa.net 邮箱:zhangshuo@cnesa.net湖南理工学院 辽宁师范大学 东北财经大学主席:吕恬然 主席:邢文芳 主席:王静邮箱:tianran@cnesa.net 邮箱:formy@cnesa.net 邮箱:ppwj@cnesa.net大连外国语学院 吉林大学 西安外国语大学主席:兰岚 主席:于宛冬 主席:王冬越邮箱:lanlan@cnesa.net 邮箱:yuwandong@cnesa.net 邮箱:krisdywang@cnesa.net长安大学 苏州科技学院 西南政法大学主席:李高波 主席:石海洋 主席:滕玲邮箱:lgbok@cnesa.net 邮箱:shihaiyang@cnesa.net 邮箱:vinebellteng@cnesa.net济南大学 南京邮电大学 华东政法大学主席:汤兆玮 主席:许佩茹 主席:王宇洋邮箱:leo3101523@cnesa.net 邮箱:xupeiru@cnesa.net 邮箱:wangyy@cnesa.net
  • 3. The Economist Economist Study Association 印度高科技公司 周报 探寻避免中期危机之路 文艺 本周政治 ————————————— 琼迪丹的回忆录 本周财经 财经 幽兰操 ————————————— 谁吃了恐龙? 中国金融监管者 社论 大换血 远古巨鳄 搜寻历史 日本核扩散善后难题 经济焦点 历史故事 640 亿---核扩散之后的问题 向主队靠拢 欧元公投 文森特梵高 明富环球破产 灰暗色调的调色盘 希腊的噩梦 落幕掮客 美国总统大选倒计时一年 基础物理学 气候金融 物理大爆炸 美国消失的中间派 谁家富贵济苍生 尼古拉斯佩夫斯纳 土耳其的外交政策 金融市场 奥斯曼帝国的梦想家 永恒的经典 火烧眉毛的希腊 ————————————— 巴西的经济 梧桐树下 深海石油里的恶魔 双层市场,多重烦恼 国际 ————————————— 瑞士银行业 贿赂 精粹 瑞士的减肥餐 供给方 ————————————— ————————————— 维基解密 商业 科技 时间钱财两空 朝圣之行 衰老 熊彼得专栏 步步炙热 永葆年轻? ————————————— 人才浪费的地方 北欧海盗的航行史 忠诚卡和保险 太阳石 美国 点滴皆有助益 南非科学 西部保守派 印度塔塔咨询服务公司在美国 全平方 铁血警官对战温润君子 从孟买到美国中西部 阿根廷的科技建设 新奥尔良的谋杀 零售业 “炼金术士”克里斯蒂娜 泰丽汉克顿的恐怖笼罩下的城市 钱包里的间谍 ————————————— 美洲的艺术家《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 4. The Economist Economist Study Association 艺术在少数人手中 总统对最高精神领袖 药品短缺 南非的交通 英国 不能等?必须等 全凭自觉 毫无经验 电视真人秀 克列星顿 利比亚人权 世界的娱乐者 性骚扰和披萨饼 积习难返 经济与欧元 ————————————— 以色列与巴勒斯坦 与狼共舞 美洲 孤掌愈加难鸣 伦敦的下水道 巴勒斯坦的贝都因人 崩溃的排水系统 尼加拉瓜的总统选举 我们也想得到承认 婴儿护理费用 险胜者 伊朗讽刺故事 昂贵的小包袱 阿根廷的现金管制 拿咱国家开开涮 板球腐败案 不自由的兑换 ————————————— 有人犯规了 巴西前总统 卢拉面临的新战役 欧洲 白芝浩 ————————————— 查理曼 孤立的不列颠 亚洲 来自希腊的大礼 圣保罗抗议 德国工资 钟声和叫喊声 尼泊尔 缩减法律援助 默克尔与最低工资 和平之光降临 特供的公平 希腊与欧元 中国激进主义 帕潘德里欧治下的百姓们 一位盲人竟让中国如此恐惧 西班牙选举 泰国洪水 改革派拉霍伊 潮湿加剧 土耳其对外政策 印度农村福利 沉睡的力量复苏 给自己挖的大坑 法国痴迷的一个数字 专栏 20 乘 20 梦境里的回声 ————————————— 巴尔干半岛的土耳其 中东与非洲 想当年黄金岁月? 俄国和世界贸易 伊朗内斗 最终要入世了 —————————————《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 5. The Economist Economist Study Association prime minister, François Fillon, declared that “freedom of Politics this week expression is an inalienable value.” 以讽刺性著称的法国月刊《笨蛋一周》在的巴黎办公室,遭受了汽油炸弹 袭击中被烧毁,只因出版了一个关于预言家穆罕默德的封面漫画。政员们 本周时政 均表示了对此次袭击的谴责。总理弗朗索瓦·菲永表示“表达自由心声的权 利是永远不能被剥夺的”。See article Greece was thrown into political turmoil, after the Prime Minister, George The ruling Christian Democrats in Germany looked set to back a Papandreou, looked on the verge of national minimum wage, having previously been strongly defeat. Having said he wanted a against it. It is the latest of the party’s beliefs to be junked by referendum on the latest euro-zone Angela Merkel, as she tries to steal opposition ideas before the rescue package, he rapidly lost the next election. support of his cabinet and his party. With 德国执政党克里斯蒂安民主党在先前遭受了强烈反对之后, 最终推行了国 so much effort put into securing the deal, 民最低工资标准。这是默克尔最近一次在党内否决的提议,因为她试图在 Mr Papandreou’s announcement stunned 下界选举前剽窃对方政党的想法。 See article European leaders, who threatened to suspend further payments from the bail-out fund and told Greece that it must decide Russia and Georgia settled most of their remaining differences whether or not it wants to remain in the euro zone. over Russian membership of the World Trade Organisation, 由于希腊总理乔治·帕潘德里欧冷眼旁观希腊局势濒临崩溃,希腊国内目 paving the way for Russia to join shortly. 前处于政治动乱的局面。帕潘德里欧表示,他需要一个对于最新欧元区急 俄罗斯和乔治亚解决了他们二者间关于俄罗斯加入 WTO 的争议, 为俄罗 救计划的公民复决投票,在这之后,他就迅速失去了其内阁以及政党的支 斯在近期加入做铺垫。 See article 持。欧洲的首脑们在希腊的经济政策实施上给予了大量支持后,帕潘德里 欧却发表了这样的声明,这使得他们极为震惊。这些首脑们威胁将中止希 Julian Assange, the public face of WikiLeaks, lost his appeal in 腊的紧急援助资金, 并让希腊当局明确表态是否还想保留在欧盟欧元区的 Britain against extradition to Sweden, where he faces 位置。See article allegations of rape and sexual assault. 面对关于强暴和强奸的指控,维基解密的公众形象人物朱利安·阿桑奇拒 The Paris offices of satirical French weekly, Charlie Hebdo, were 绝从英国引渡至瑞典,但他本人的上诉权已被驳回。 burnt out by a petrol bomb after it printed a cover cartoon of the prophet Muhammad. Politicians denounced the attack. The《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 6. The Economist Economist Study Association At last, some initiative a constituent assembly next summer. 最后,一些倡议 利比亚的过渡政府委员会对是否选举学者阿卜杜尔拉辛·阿尔凯布为国家 Syria’s foreign minister 总理进行了投票。然而,不论结果如何,至少到明年夏天的立宪选举会议 met a delegation of the 之前,过渡政府还是由他领导。 22-country Arab League in Qatar to discuss ways The head of Liberia’s election commission resigned after of ending eight months of complaints of malpractice from Winston Tubman, who is bidding civil strife. The league to unseat the incumbent, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, in a run-off for said it would seek to the presidency on November 8th. arrange for 近日,温斯顿·图曼指责利比里亚选举委员会的主席玩忽职守,导致了后 representatives of Syria’s opposition to negotiate soon with 者的辞职。 温斯顿·图曼此举的目的在于把现任总统埃伦·约翰逊·瑟利夫在 government officials at a second meeting. 11 月 8 日总统大选决胜轮中拉下台。 叙利亚外交部长在卡塔尔受到了来自 22 个阿拉伯联盟国家代表团的迎 接,他们共同探讨了如何平息叙利亚历时八个月内乱的措施。联盟表示其 Herman’s monsters 将尽快安排叙利亚对立方代表和政府官员进行第二次谈判。 赫尔曼的拦路虎 In a remarkable turn of events in the Republican race for the The UN General Assembly voted by 107 votes to 14, with 52 presidential nomination, Herman Cain, who has vaulted into the abstentions, to admit Palestine as a full member of UNESCO, lead in some polls, blamed campaign staff working for Rick the UN’s cultural agency. The United States, which provides Perry, the governor of Texas and a rival candidate, of organizing 22% of its funds, and Israel, which provides 3%, said they a smear campaign to discredit him. Press reports emerged this would stop their contributions. week that at least three women who worked with Mr Cain had 联合国大会以 107 赞成票比 14 否决票, 以及 52 票弃权的投票表决结果 accused him of sexual harassment in the 1990s. 承认巴勒斯坦为正式成为联合国教科文组织成员。对此,为美国和以色列 对大选中某些投票中保持领先赫尔曼 · 凯恩来说,近日在共和党内竞争 威胁他们将停止对联合国运转资金投入。其中,美国为联合国提供 22% 总统候选人中的表现对他的整个选举无疑是个急剧转折, 他谴责了那些帮 的运作资金,以色列提供 3%。 助里克·派瑞竞选的工作人员,声称他们通过组织一次造谣中伤活动,使 公众对自己丧失信心。里克·派瑞是德克萨斯州的州长,也是赫尔曼 · 凯 Libya’s transitional council voted for Abdurrahim al-Keib, an 恩在本次大选中的竞争对手之一。这周的媒体报道表明,至少三名曾为凯 academic, to be the country’s prime minister. He will head an 恩工作的女性指控他曾在 20 世纪 90 年代年进行性骚扰。See article interim government that is set to rule at least until elections to《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 7. The Economist Economist Study Association Anti-capitalist activists in Oakland, California, stepped up their learned his trade in the Soviet army. He has allegedly supplied protests by causing the shutdown of the city’s port, one of the arms to various conflicts elsewhere, including Sierra Leone, busiest in America. In London, the dean of St Paul’s Cathedral earning him the sobriquet, “Merchant of Death”. resigned over the handling of an anti-capitalist camp that has 臭名昭著的军火商威克特·布特在纽约一所法院被判有罪。威克特·布特向 pitched tents close to the steps of the building. See article 哥伦比亚的 FARC 反政府军队出售武器, 致使他们可以攻击由美国支持的 加州奥克兰市的反资本主义活动的参与者们加强了他们抗议的力度。 抗议 军事行动。布特的军火生意是在苏联军队中发展起来的。据其申诉,他曾 活动导致奥克兰市的机场被迫关闭,改机场是美国客流量最大的机场之 向其他很多地方的冲突提供过武器,包括塞拉利昂的武装冲突,这些给他 一。由于对反资本主义抗议活动的处理不当,圣保罗大教堂的主任牧师引 带来了“死亡商人”的绰号。 咎辞职。据悉,抗议者们甚至将帐篷驻扎到了大教堂的楼梯附近。 Providing a hopeful precedent Wishes for a speedy recovery 开门红 愿君尽快康复 Kyrgyzstan’s first presidential election as a parliamentary Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president between 2003 and democracy was won by Almazbek Atambayev, leader of the 2010, was diagnosed with throat cancer. He will undergo Social Democratic Party. He will replace Roza Otunbayeva, the chemotherapy and radiotherapy. See article country’s interim president, who took office after a coup 路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦,在 2003 到 2010 年担任巴西总统期 unseated her predecessor in 2010. True to her word, Ms 间被诊断为患有喉癌。日前他将接受化学治疗和放射治疗。 Otunbayeva did not run for re-election. The new president-elect announced plans to close a large American military base. Gustavo Petro, an economist and former leftist guerrilla, was 作为一个新晋的议会民主制国家, 吉尔吉斯斯坦的第一届总统大选获胜者 elected mayor ofBogotá,Colombia’s capital. He campaigned 是社会民主党领袖阿尔马兹别克·阿坦巴耶夫。他将取代在 2010 年通过 against corruption and has been outspoken on national issues, 政变前任拉下马后就任的临时总统萝扎·奥通巴耶娃。奥通巴耶娃信守承 such as free trade and reparations for war victims. 诺, 并没有发起重新选举。 新任总统宣布他计划关闭一个大型的美军基地。 经济学家和前左派游击队员古斯塔沃 佩德罗当选为哥伦比亚首都波哥大 市的市长。他发起过反腐败活动并曾公开发表对国家事务的看法,例如自 A suicide-bomber attacked a convoy of military vehicles 由贸易和对战争受害者的赔偿问题。 in Kabul, killing 17 people, including 13 troops and civilian employees of the International Security Assistance Force. Three Viktor Bout, an infamous arms dealer, was convicted by a court Australians and an Afghan interpreter were killed in a separate in New York of selling weapons to FARC rebels in Colombia so attack in Afghanistan’s Uruzgan province. that they could attack American support operations. Mr Bout 自杀式袭击者袭击了喀布尔的一个军车车队,造成包括 13 名军人和受雇《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 8. The Economist Economist Study Association 于国际安全协助部队的平民在内的 17 人死亡。3 名澳大利亚人和一个阿 程起到了推进的作用。印度已经在 1996 年授予了巴基斯坦最惠国地位, 富汗翻译员死于发生在阿富汗 Uruzgan 省另一起袭击中。 但是后来双方的贸易严重失衡,印度的利益被严重损害。 Nepal’s political parties settled on a plan to disperse the Maoist The UN marked October army. The status of the former rebels has been one of the main 31st as the day obstacles to securing a lasting peace since the end of the civil the world’s war in 2006. A third of the ex-Maoists will now join the national population reached army.See article seven billion, just a 尼泊尔各党派制定出一个计划以驱逐毛派的军队。 2006 年内战结束以 自 dozen years after it 来, 这些曾经的反叛者的社会地位已经成为国家获得持久和平的主要障碍 reached six billion. Unlike 之一。有三分之一的前毛泽东主义者将加入现在的国家军队。 the previous milestone the UN declined to identify baby seven billion, but that did not stop several candidates from claiming Nine Thai soldiers turned themselves over to police to face the mantle, including a baby girl in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most charges of murdering 13 Chinese sailors on populous state. the Mekong river near the border with Myanmar. The soldiers 联合国宣布在十月 31 日,世界人口达到了 70 亿,而人口达到 60 亿已 say they are not guilty and merely found the victims, along with 经是十二年前的事情了。与上一个人口里程碑不同,联合国拒绝识别出第 1m methamphetamine tablets. The incident prompted the four 70 亿个婴儿,但这并没有阻止替婴儿前来申请此身份的父母,这包括印 countries through which the upper Mekong flows to agree to 度人口最多的州北方邦 的一个女婴的父母。 police the river jointly. 9 名泰国军人向警方自首,接受在缅甸边境湄公河流域杀害 13 名中国船 Two Chinese spacecraft docked in orbit for the first time, when 员的指控。这些军人称他们是无罪的,只是发现了受害者和与之一起的 an unmanned craft was attached to the Tiangong-1 space 100 万颗甲基苯丙胺药片。这次事件促使湄公河上游流经的 4 个国家同 laboratory. 意共同维护流域的治安。 两艘中国宇宙飞船首次在外太空实现了轨道对接——天宫一号无人驾驶 舱与与天宫 1 号太空实验室进行了对接。 Pakistan’s cabinet voted to grant India most-favoured-nation status, a fillip for the peace process that began in February. 翻译者:陈静怡&李飞&马彦天 India had granted the same status to Pakistan in 1996, but the balance of trade has fallen heavily in India’s favour since then. 巴基斯坦内阁会议投票决定授予印度最惠国地位, 这对二月开始的和平进《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 9. The Economist Economist Study Association Mario Draghi 继 Jean-Claude Trichet 之后成为欧洲中央银行的行长, Business this week 时值 ECB 宣布开始购买更多意大利国债。 The unemployment rate in the euro zone was 10.2% in 本周经济 September, the highest it has been since 1998. Unemployment rose in Germany for the first time since June 2009. Across the The political commotion in Greece zone the youth-unemployment rate stood at 21.2%; it was a over the latest euro-zone rescue staggering 48% in Spain, and 43.5% in Greece. package put an abrupt end to 9 月份欧元区失业率为 10.2%,创 1998 年来历史新高。自 2009 年 6 hopes that the deal would resolve 月 份 以 来 德 国 失 业 率 首 次 上 升 。 整 个 欧 元 区 年 轻 人 的 失 业 率 高 踞在 the debt crisis. As investors 21.2%,西班牙高达 48%,希腊为 43.5%。 fretted that the entire agreement, including plans to increase the At its latest policy meeting the Federal Reserve said it expects firepower of the euro-zone’s America’s economy to continue growing at a “moderate pace” bail-out fund, was under threat over the coming months. A first estimate put GDP growth in the the spread of Italian bond yields third quarter at 2.5% at an annualized rate, the quickest pace over those of German Bunds shot so far this year. Britain’s economic growth also improved in the up. Banks’ share prices slumped. See article quarter, growing by 2.0% at an annualised rate. 最近欧元区的一揽子援助计划突然中止,导致希腊政治上的混乱,该计划 在最近的政策会议上, 美联储预测在接下来的几个月中, 美国经济将以“稳 解决债务危机的希望也随之破灭。 加之意大利国债的收益率较之德国公债 健的步伐”持续增长。 按年度比率计算, 初步估计第三季度 GDP 增长幅度 的收益率的差幅飙升, 投资者们苦恼于包括增加欧元区紧急财政援助计划 为 2.5%。英国在第三季度经济亦有所增长,年比增长 2.0%。 力度在内的整个协议受到该差幅扩大的威胁而流产。 银行的股票价格也迅 速下跌。 MF Global, a broker, filed for bankruptcy protection. With listed assets of $41 billion it is the biggest failure of a financial Enter the man from Italy company in America since 2008. Jon Corzine, a former chairman 意大利人介入 of Goldman Sachs and an ex-governor of New Jersey, has led Mario Draghi took over from Jean-Claude Trichet as president of the company since March 2010, building up its trading activities the European Central Bank, just as the ECB reportedly set about and overseeing the bets in Europe’s sovereign-debt market that purchasing more Italian bonds. eventually sunk it. See article《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 10. The Economist Economist Study Association 明富全球,一家期货公司,提交了破产申请。这是美国自 2008 年以来最 electronics giants now expect to make a loss for the year, 大的一桩金融公司破产案,明富全球的上市资产达 410 亿美元。Jon mostly because of restructuring efforts at their Corzine,高盛集团前任董事长和新泽西州前州长,在 2010 年开始领导 television-making factories, which are facing cheaper 这家公司。他规划了该公司的贸易活动以及监督在欧债市场上的投注,而 competition from South Korea and Taiwan. Sony also said the 正是其在欧债上的投注最终导致了公司的破产。 flooding in Thailand, which has upset its camera-production lines, would hurt profits. No substitute 索尼和松下都在一定程度上谴责日元的升值使他们的财富发生转移。 日本 “无可替代” 两大电子巨头都预计今年将会发生亏损, 主要是由于对电视机制造厂的重 Bank of America scrapped its plan to charge customers a 组,这些工厂面临着来自韩国和台湾更廉价产品的激烈竞争。索尼还称, monthly fee on debit-card purchases after a customer backlash. 泰国的洪水将使其相机生产线的正常运转受到影响, 这也会使企业的利润 Other banks also retreated from imposing similar fees, which 受损。 they had hoped would make up for revenue they will soon lose from new limits on the amount banks are allowed to charge Investors reacted positively to Hewlett-Packard’s decision not retailers for debit-card transactions. to sell its personal-computing division, which accounts for 美洲银行在消费者强烈反对之后取消了每月对消费者收取借记卡交易费 around a third of its revenue. HP’s volte-face came a little over 用的规定。其他银行也取消了类似的收费规定。由于新出台的政策限制银 a month after it sacked Léo Apotheker, who had wanted to spin 行向零售商收取信用卡交易费用的额度, 银行曾希望借此弥补收入上的差 off the PC business in order to focus on computing services, and 额。 appointed Meg Whitman as chief executive. 投资者对惠普不出售其个人计算部门的决议反应良好, 此部门大约占有公 Japan made another effort to rein in the rise of its currency, by 司收入的三分之一。在解雇了 Léo Apotheker 一个多月之后,惠普突然 selling an estimated {Yen}7 trillion ($89.7 billion). The 来了个大转变,并任命 Meg Whitman 为执行总裁。Léo Apotheker 因 government’s action to weaken the yen was much larger than a 曾想要放弃个人电脑业务以专注于计算业务而被解雇。 previous intervention in August. 日本政府为控制日元升值做出了另外的努力: 抛售约 7 万亿日元 (合美金 G4S ditched its £5.2 billion ($8.3 billion) plan to buy ISS and 897 亿)。东京方面阻止日元升值的力度比 8 月份之前的干涉力度大大 create a behemoth in security and property facilities, after its 增加。 shareholders balked at the deal. 在股东阻止了交易之后,G4S 放弃了其想以 52 亿欧元(83 亿美元)收 Both Sony and Panasonic partly blamed the appreciating yen for 购 ISS 以建立起其保安和物业设施领域帝国的计划。 a reversal of fortunes in their businesses. Both Japanese《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 11. The Economist Economist Study Association Qantas grounded its entire fleet of airliners around the world to Germany’s finance ministry discovered an embarrassing counter a series of strikes by employees. It resumed flying after accounting error at a nationalised “bad bank”, which meant the Australia’s federal industrial-relations tribunal interceded and country’s debt had been overstated by €55.5 billion ($77 billion). told both sides to reach a settlement. Air France also faced down The mistake affects Germany’s overall indebtedness, which now a walkout, succeeding in flying around 90% of its scheduled drops from 84% to 81% of GDP. Ireland’s finance ministry also departures. See article uncovered a happy blunder. A €3.6 billion accounting mistake at 澳航停飞所有航班以打击工人罢工。经过澳大利亚联邦产业关系法庭调 its housing agency means that Ireland’s debt load is two 解,并让双方达成协议后澳航才恢复航班。法国航空也面临着工人罢工的 percentage points lower than had been thought. See article 问题,但其成功恢复了大约 90%的预定航班。 德国财政部发现了一家国有“坏账银行”的会计错误, 这意味着整个国家的 国债被夸大了 555 亿欧元(7770 亿美元)。这个错误影响了德国的整 Saab was thrown a lifeline when a long-mooted deal to sell the 体债务,国债在 GDP 中所占的比例由 84%下降为 81%。爱尔兰财政部 troubled Swedish carmaker to Chinese buyers was signed. But 也发现了一个大错误,房地产中介 36 亿欧元的会计错误意味着爱尔兰的 the contract could still unravel as agreement is required from 债务负荷比其预想的低了 2%。 other parties, including General Motors, Saab’s former owner. Saab,这个困难重重瑞典汽车制造商在与中国买家签署了长期搁置的收 翻译者:唐宇&李雅婷&马彦天 购协议后,终于起死回生。但是,收购合同的最终签订还需要其他方面的 同意,其中包括通用汽车,Saab 的前东家。 GlaxoSmithKline, a British drug company, said it had reached a tentative agreement with prosecutors in America that will see it pay $3 billion to settle claims arising from its marketing practices and the methods it used to promote medicines to doctors. GlaxoSmithKline,一家英国医药公司,称已与美国检察官达成暂时的 协议, 声称将为对其营销手段及将药物推销给医生的不合法方式发出的指 控支付 30 亿美元的赔偿。 Every penny counts 每分钱都意义重大《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 12. The Economist Economist Study Association Japan’s nuclear conundrum atFukushimaDai-ichi nuclear power plant after the tsunami on 日本核扩散善后难题 March 11th. 3月11日日本东北部海域海啸引发福岛第一核电站3反应堆发生泄漏, 事后 The $64 billion question 日本政府对东京电力公司紧急注资,第一笔支援达5万亿日元(640亿美 元) 。某官方人员在回应此事时如此说到:“这是人类与技术的战争。战争 640亿---核扩散之后的问题 时期就不要去管破产之类的事情了”。 Once the Fukushima nuclear plant is stable, the government should temporarily nationalise its operator The support has two valid aims. It helps pay compensation to the 待福岛核电站情况稳定之后,政府应暂时对东京电力公司实行国有化。 89,000 people forced to abandon their homes within a Nov 5th 2011 | from the print edition 20km(12.5-mile) radius of the plant: in the twilight zone only farm animals and the odd feral ostrich roam the streets (see article). It also spares Tepco the chaos of insolvency as it races towards a year-end deadline forFukushima’s full shutdown. 这项援助主要用于两个方面。对核电站辐射源所在地20Km 范围内,被迫 放弃家园搬迁他处的89000人进行补偿:曾经的家园已荒无人烟,只剩一 些农场动物和从动物园里逃出来的鸵鸟在街上瞎逛。 见本期 The twilight ( zone) 。同时这笔款项也使得年内必须完全关闭福岛核电站的东京电力公 司免于破产之忧。 Don’t let it off the hook 别让东京电力逃脱干系 Yet the aim must surely be to create a stronger, safer energy industry as well. Tepco’s continued existence as a private, gravely crippled entity works against that. The government “THIS is a war between humans and technology. While that war should act fast to nationalise Tepco and hold it temporarily in is being fought, we should not talk about bankruptcy.” So says a public ownership as it clears out the old management and Japanese official responsible for channelling the first tranche of oversees the clean-up. Then it should reprivatise a thoroughly ¥5 trillion ($64 billion) in government support to Tokyo Electric reformed utility. Three reasons argue for Tepco to be Power (Tepco) following the meltdown of its three reactors nationalised.《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 13. The Economist Economist Study Association 但这笔援助必须保证使能源产业变得更加稳固、安全。如果让已千疮百孔 reports of workers slopping about in radioactive water wearing 的东京电力公司继续作为私有企业而存在,显然不利于上述目的的实现。 leaky boots. In the short run the state can better oversee this 政府应当尽快将东电公司国有化,让其暂时公有化以“清洗”其陈旧的管理 transition as an owner with day-to-day responsibilities, before 系统,并监督好此次“大扫除”。在其彻底重组成为公用事业之后,政府应 privatising Tepco in order to re-establish the necessary division 当再进行私有化。有三个理由对东电公司实行国有化。 between operator and regulator. 其次,确保东电公司财政结构调整的安全。东电公司承诺在未来10年内削 First, as a basis for holding the company to account. Despite 减2.5万亿元的开支,但这可能危及管理安全。早已有报道称,该公司员工 failing to anticipate the devastating earthquake and tsunami, 穿着漏靴在放射源污染的水域中游荡(预算不足,没有物资) 。短期内, 国 and a dismal performance after they hit, Tepco’s management 家作为所有者能更好地监督财政结构的调整,履行日常指责,在此之后国 remains broadly in place, and shareholders and creditors are 家应当对东京电力实行再私有化,重新在公司运营者和管理者之间做必要 being bailed out. Injecting money into the company smacks of 区分。 the sort of complicity between the nuclear industry and its political overseers that helped getJapaninto this nuclear mess. Third, as a demonstration that the government will no longer Though the ¥5 trillion will pass through Tepco’s hands, the grant special favours to the nuclear industry. Failure to intervene company has no legal obligation to register it as a loan on its would underline how Tepco, along withJapan’s other power balance-sheet or say how it will be repaid. For now, taxpayers, utilities, continues to intimidate the government. The utilities not the shareholders or bondholders, bear all the risk. have huge political power, helped by a pliant media and the 首先,为控股东电公司打基础。尽管没能成功预见到强地震和海啸造成的 support of big businesses selling services at inflated prices. If the 严重灾难,且灾难发生后善后工作表现糟糕,东电管理层仍得以总体保存 government fails to discipline Tepco, it will struggle to win the 下来,他们首先保护的利益依旧是股东和债权人的利益。政府向该公司注 country’s confidence over other aspects of nuclear oversight. 资这一举措, 使得核电产业和政府监管者之间看起来有种不明不白的关系, That includes the promise by Yoshihiko Noda, the prime minister, 这使得日本陷入了此次核电乱局。虽然5万亿日元被交到了东电公司手里, to conduct “stress tests” to ensure that the rest of Japan’s 54 但没有法律规定东电公司必须将其作为贷款纳入资产负债表里,或者说明 nuclear reactors, most of them now suspended, can safely be 偿还计划。现在,不是股东或公司债券持有人,而是纳税人,在承担所有 restarted. 风险。 第三,表明政府再也不会给核电行业以特殊优待。干预失效会凸显出东电 公司,以及其他经营公用事业的能源企业是如何继续挟持政府的。易被操 Second, to ensure that Tepco’s financial restructuring is safe. The 纵的媒体以及提供高价服务积累的实力,使得这些经营公用事业的企业拥 firm has agreed to cut costs by ¥2.5 trillion over the next ten 有了庞大的政治力量。如果政府不能成功约束东电公司,它就只能被迫努 years, but this may well compromise safety. Already there are 力在核电监督的其他方面争取到信心。 譬如, 首相野田佳彦承诺, 将采取“压《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 14. The Economist Economist Study Association 力测试”以确保日本其余54个多数已暂停使用的核反应堆可被安全重启。 A euro referendum 欧元公投 At Fukushima, more bills will come due, including for removing radioactive topsoil from a vast area. The longer the government Greece’s woes dithers over nationalising Tepco, the more the costs will rise and the impetus for action will wane. Tens of thousands have lost 希腊的噩梦 homes, businesses and confidence in their children’s health as a The markets are not the euro’s only threat. Voters may result of the disaster atFukushima. Don’t let their suffering be for be too nought. 市场并非是对欧元命运的唯一威胁,公投也能使欧元覆灭。 在福岛,越来越多的账单将到期需要支付,包括大面积移除表面放射性土 壤的那部分。政府在东电公司国有化一事上犹豫越久,所需费用就会越高、 实施动力也会越弱。成千上万的民众已经因福岛灾难失去了自己的家园、 企业和对孩子们健康成长的信心。不要让他们白白承受这些痛苦。 from the print edition | Leaders 译者:陈雅秋 EVEN by the euro zone’s undemanding standards, a summit deal that survived less than a week is lamentable. Early on October 27th Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, hailed a “comprehensive package” to save the euro. Yet by the time The Economist went to press, their plans were in tatters. Greece’s prime minister,《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 15. The Economist Economist Study Association George Papandreou, looked doomed, rejected by some of his the fringes of the G20 summit in Cannes. Mr Sarkozy’s hopes ministers, many in his party—and, possibly, most of his country. that this gathering might set the stage for generous 欧盟峰会提出的一揽子方案竟然不到一周就夭折了, 即使以欧元区相对宽 emerging-market investment to support the euro were already 松的标准来看,这也无疑堪称悲剧。10 月 27 日凌晨,德国总理默克尔 faint. They now look impossible. 和法国总统萨科齐联手推出了拯救欧元的“一揽子计划”。 可惜计划没有变 其实,希腊总理帕潘德里欧是搬起石头砸了自己的脚。他希望通过对欧债 化快,还没等本刊印刷出版,拯救计划就泡汤了。这一切的始作俑者正是 救助计划进行公投,来寻求希腊人民的支持,结果却随即遭致欧洲各国的 希腊总理帕潘德里欧,也许是命中注定难逃此劫,目前他已经众叛亲离, 骂声连连,称其为傻瓜和叛徒。为什么他偏要使欧盟的努力付之东流。 当 反对他的声浪不仅来自一些内阁部长和大部分执政党成员, 恐怕还包括希 整个欧洲都在为他捅的娄子而慷慨解囊时,他却胆敢恩将仇报。出离愤怒 腊全国人民。 的萨科齐和默克尔在戛纳 G20 峰会的外围会议上对其一顿痛批。萨科齐 原本还奢望借此峰会,向阔绰的新兴市场国家寻求欧债支援。现在看来, The shallowness of the summit’s achievements has been 这已经完全不可能了。 brutally exposed. Instead of settling into a period of calm, markets were thrown into new turmoil (see article). One way or There is no disputing that Mr Papandreou, in spectacularly another, the euro is destined for an unavoidable test of popular chaotic style, has left the euro zone racked by uncertainty. His support. Unless the euro zone’s leaders shape up, this is an referendum now seems unlikely to take place. Perhaps Pasok, encounter their currency may well lose. his party, will enter a government of national unity with New 峰会的阴影无情的显露出来,它不仅没有使欧洲局势趋于缓和,反而让市 Democracy, the opposition, headed by a technocrat. Perhaps 场再次陷入新的漩涡。从方方面面看来,欧元都将不可避免的接受大众支 there will be an election. Perhaps even these plans will fall apart, 持度的考验。除非欧元区领导人能够绝地反击,否则欧元势必凶多吉少。 just as the last did (see article). All the while, the clock is ticking: within a month or so, Greece must receive fresh funds from the Heed the messenger IMF and its European rescuers—or messily default. 弦外之音 毫无疑问,帕潘德里欧以糟糕透顶的方式,使欧元区再次陷入前途未卜的 Mr Papandreou was in part the author of his own misfortune. 痛苦之中。就目前形势来看,他的公投也难逃夭折命运。也许,他领导的 Seeking the backing of the Greek people in a referendum, he 执政党(泛希腊社会主义运动党)将与反对党(新民主党)组成联合政府, was immediately condemned in the capitals of Europe as a fool 由更有才能的人领导。也许希腊将会进行选举。也许,就连这些计划也将 or a traitor. Why had he wrecked all their good work? How dare 半途而废,就如同上一个欧债救助计划一样。此时此刻,倒计时的秒表正 he bring disaster on the rest of the euro zone when it had so 在滴答作响:希腊只剩一个多月的时间了,必须从国际国币基金组织 generously bailed out his scapegrace of a country? A furious Mr (IMF)和欧洲赈灾盟国那里获得资金支持,否则债务违约在劫难逃。 Sarkozy and Mrs Merkel summoned him for a dressing-down on《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 16. The Economist Economist Study Association Mr Papandreou has created an almighty mess, but he is better of debt would, even on best assumptions, still add up to 120% cast as the messenger than the villain. He was not to blame for of GDP by 2020. All the while, the Greek people would be living the summit’s shortcomings. The spreads between Italian and with austerity. German government debt had begun to widen well before Mr 某种程度上讲,帕潘德里欧甚至不该受到指责,他不过是就欧盟峰会的重 Papandreou dropped his bombshell. If the euro zone had put a 要成果征求一下民意罢了(尽管现在,他一定在为自己的决定捶胸顿足) 。 credible firewall around the government bonds of Italy and 尽管减记希腊政府私人部门 50%账面债务的提议非常实在,着实应该受 other troubled euro countries, a Greek default would not now be 到欢迎; 然而, 即使在最乐观的情况下, 希腊的剩余债务仍将是截至 2020 threatening contagion. Stable sovereign borrowers would have 年全国累计 GDP 的 120%。也就是说,希腊人民将持续生活在经济紧缩 helped to safeguard Europe’s banks, and a decent plan to 状态之中。 strengthen the weakest banks would have secured the door. But last week’s summit deal—concocting a jerry-built firewall and Hence Mr Papandreou’s most important message. Until now the asking the banks to boost their capital ratios by June next euro crisis has chiefly been about pressure from the markets. year—was not up to scratch. No wonder the markets took fright But a country’s finances are not defined by markets alone. only days later. Rather the limits of solvency are tested by people’s willingness 尽管帕潘德里欧制造的混乱非同小可,但他并非罪魁祸首,充其量只是个 to accept tax rises and spending cuts. A government runs out of 传声筒。他不该成为欧盟峰会败笔的替罪羊。早在在帕潘德里欧掷下公投 political capital long before it runs out of things to tax. In the 这一重磅炸弹之前,意德两国的国债息差就已经开始扩大了。但凡欧元区 end, won’t pay matters more than can’t pay. 可以围绕意大利及其他受困成员国的国债市场建立起可靠的防火墙, 希腊 所以说,帕先生只是传达了一个重要信息。截至目前,欧债危机所面临的 债务违约都不可能像现在这样,成为欧元区的心腹大患。因为那样的话, 主要压力仍来自于市场。但是,对于一个国家的金融而言,市场的影响只 欧洲银行业将获得主权借款人的稳定支持, 而一份体面的银行业提振计划 是一个方面。对于希腊偿还能力的极限,不如通过希腊人民的意愿来进行 也将起到保障作用。可惜,上周欧盟峰会达成的协议仅是隔靴搔痒,建立 考量,看看老百姓是否愿意接受增加赋税和减少开支的政策来偿清债务。 一个豆腐渣样的防火墙, 以及要求银行于明年 6 月前提高资本率, 对于挽 一个政府的政治资本可能会用完,但可以征税的项目却数不胜数。最终, 救危机根本无济于事。 这也难怪还没过两天, 市场就又重新陷入恐慌之中。 问题的关键将是还债的意愿,而非还债的能力。 At one level, Mr Papandreou does not deserve blame even for Greece is farther down this road than any other member of the seeking a mandate on the summit’s main achievement (though euro zone—even though other countries such as Portugal and he must now be ruing his decision). Although the proposal to Ireland have already seen their governments toppled and Spain write down the face value of privately held Greek-government is about to follow suit. Beset by rebels in his own party, by a debt by 50% would be substantial and welcome, Greece’s stock hostile media and by strikes and protests, Mr Papandreou《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 17. The Economist Economist Study Association concluded that he would find it hard to impose the austerity 企业则将因欧元负债而面临破产。此外,虽然本国货币贬值会给希腊带来 being asked of Greece. Every quarter the EU, the IMF and the 短暂好处,但是由此引发的通货膨胀很可能令结果得不偿失。这样一来, European Central Bank (ECB) scrutinise Greece before 连希腊的欧盟成员国资格都将打上问号。 releasing the next chunk of money. With nowhere to hide, he decided to appeal over the heads of his opponents to the people. What to do? 尽管葡萄牙、爱尔兰等国政府已经因为债务危机而摇摇欲坠,而西班牙貌 下一步的计划 似很快也会步其后尘,但在这一问题上,希腊可谓是欧元区的老大难了。 Greece’s government must wisely spend what scant political 面对来自执政党内的抗议,媒体的恶意围攻,以及全国各地此起彼伏的示 capital it may have. Above all, the economy needs to grow. 威游行,帕潘德里欧坦言无法将希腊人民推入负债累累的火坑之中。每个 Despite their anger, 70% of Greeks say they want to remain in 季度,欧盟、国际货币基金组织和欧洲央行都会在调拨大额资助前对希腊 the euro, but their tolerance for austerity has limits. The 进行一番刁难。一不做二不休,这次帕潘德里欧索性挺胸抬头直面人民, government must devote less effort to growth-destroying tax 不去理会那些反对的声音。 rises and instead undertake growth-promoting structural reforms. It will have to begin facing down public-sector unions Greece’s next government, whatever its composition, cannot and enforcing barely implemented reforms. Mr Papandreou’s escape the growing resentment of the country’s political class. A government consistently took the easy way out. growing but still small contingent of Greeks wants to defy the 希腊政府必须将其有限的政治资本用好用足。首先,经济发展是必须的。 EU’s treaties and quit the euro altogether. Fully 60% reject the 尽管希腊人民对政府怨声载道,但是 70%的希腊人仍表示希望继续留在 summit deal. But Greek withdrawal still looks like a terrible 欧元区,但同时,他们对于经济紧缩的忍耐力也是有限的。政府必须保证 mistake. Depositors would rush to pull their money out of Greek 经济增长,放宽税收政策,并将更多精力投入到刺激经济增长的体制改革 banks to protect their savings from being converted into new 中;而且,政府还需要顶住公共部门的压力,将尚未启动的各项改革落到 drachma. Greek firms would be bankrupted by their euro debts. 实处。而帕先生领导的希腊政府的一贯做法却是避重就轻图省事儿。 The gain in competitiveness from devaluation would be transient if, as is likely, wages inflated along with prices. Even The euro zone’s emphasis on austerity rather than structural Greece’s EU membership would be in doubt. reforms has aggravated Greece’s political woes. Instead it 无论希腊的下一届政府由谁来领导,都无法回避人民对于党政阶层的憎 should favour medium-term fiscal consolidation. The creditor 恶。目前,尽管想挑战欧盟并退出欧元区的希腊人还为数不多,但该人数 nations could boost domestic demand, to provide a bigger 仍在持续增加。整整 60%的希腊人反对欧盟峰会的决议。可是,退出欧 market for debtors’ exports. Most of all, they should dispel the 元区对于希腊而言很可能是场灾难。这势必会导致银行挤兑,因为只有取 threat of contagion by putting the ECB’s balance-sheet behind 出欧元存款,储户们才能保证他们的存款不会被兑换成新希腊元。而希腊 the debt of solvent governments, like Italy and Spain.《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 18. The Economist Economist Study Association Throughout this crisis, creditors—particularly Germany—have The presidential race one year out worried about being too soft on the euro zone’s weaklings, for 美国总统大选倒计时一年 fear that they would go slow on reform. Mr Papandreou has shown that they also need to worry about being too austere. America’s missing middle 欧元区各国一再强调,希腊应该实施经济紧缩,而非经济体制改革,这无 疑加剧了希腊国内的政治危机。其实,欧盟更应该帮助成员国们建立起一 美国消失的中间派 条中期财政的统一战线,债权国可以通过刺激内需,为债务国提供更广大 The coming presidential election badly needs a shot of 的出口市场。而所有工作的重中之重,则是将欧洲央行变成意大利、西班 centrist pragmatism 牙等成员国的经济后盾, 以此打消有偿还能力成员国担心惹祸上身的后顾 总统选举大幕将启,美国急需务实中间派 之忧。纵观整场欧债危机,欧元区的债权国,也就是德国,一直担心欧盟 对于一些弱国的姑息纵容,会拖累他们的改革进程。而帕先生的举动则提 醒了欧盟,有时候过于严厉,也将适得其反。 翻译者:张翎&靳浩然 IT IS a year until Americans go to the polls, on November 6th 2012, to decide whether Barack Obama deserves another term. In January the Republicans start voting in their primaries, with the favourite, Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, facing fading competition from Herman Cain, a pizza tycoon, and Rick Perry, the governor of Texas. Already American politics《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 19. The Economist Economist Study Association has succumbed to election paralysis, with neither party that their political system, like their economy, has been skewed interested in bipartisan solutions. to favour the few, not the many. 距 2012 年 11 月 6 日的美国大选还有一年时间, 届时美国民众将用选票 在这次危机中,有些事是无法避免的。不论身处华盛顿的国家领导人怎样 决定巴拉克•奥巴马的去留。明年一月,共和党将进行党内投票以确定总 安慰民众,信贷紧缩总会触及许多人的悲伤神经。社会不平等加剧,养老 统候选人名单,目前呼声最高的前马萨诸塞州州长米特•罗姆尼对阵江河 金经费不足、教学质量下降早是历史遗留问题。原本应拯救民众于苦海的 日下的前“比萨大亨”赫尔曼•凯恩以及德州州长里克•佩里。 而自驴象两党 政治,而今却更令民众人心惶惶。 80%的美国民众不信任政府。他们普 拒绝合作之时,美国政治就已被竞选活动搞垮。 遍感到,美国政府体系同美国经济一样也沦落为少数人的奴隶,不再能让 广大人民受益。 This would be a problem at the best of times; and these times are very far from that. Strikingly, by about three to one, The European Union may seem the epitome of political Americans feel their country is on the wrong track. America’s dysfunction, but America has been running it close. All this year sovereign debt has been downgraded. Unemployment remains the deadlock between the Republicans in Congress and Mr stubbornly above 9%, with the long-term unemployed making Obama has meant that precious little serious legislation has up the largest proportion of the jobless since records began in been passed. The president’s jobs bill is stuck; the House of 1948. As the superpower’s clout seems to ebb towards Asia, the Representatives’ budget plans have been scuppered by the world’s most consistently inventive and optimistic country has Democrat-controlled Senate. At the end of this year temporary lost its mojo. tax cuts and other measures, worth around 2% of GDP, are set 若在美国最辉煌的时代,两党之争绝非好事,可辉煌时代早已走远。令人 to expire—which could push America back into recession. 吃惊的是,约四分之三的美国人认为山姆大叔正陷入困境。美国主权债务 欧盟内部成员国相互指责成性,俨然已成了政坛混乱的代表。美国政治如 信誉遭降级。 9%的失业率居高不下, 长期失业者占失业总数的最大份额, 今也趋之若鹜向欧盟靠拢。这一年里,共和党议员同奥巴马僵持不下, 鲜 创下了自 1948 年来的新高。随着美国对亚洲影响力的渐渐衰退,这个世 有重要的法规得以通过。总统提出的就业法案遭到否决;众议院的预算法 界上最具创造力、最乐天的国家已经耗尽了它的好运气。 案也在由民主党掌控的参议院受挫。 今年年底临时性减税计划和其他刺激 经济的措施也将到期,美国已为其支出了 GDP 的 2%,而这一切很有可 Some of this distress was inevitable. Whatever the country’s 能会使美国重新陷入经济衰退。 leaders did in Washington, the credit crunch was always going to cause a lot of suffering. Rising inequality, unfunded pensions Surrender to extremists and bad schools are not new problems. But politics, far from 向极端分子投降 offering a remedy, is now adding to the national angst. Eight out On the face of it, neither side has gained from this stand-off. of ten Americans mistrust their government. There is a sense Only 45% of Americans approve of Mr Obama’s performance.《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 20. The Economist Economist Study Association The approval rating for Congress dropped to 9% in one recent 持者。与此同时,国会内为数不多的共和党中间派代表,如参议员理查德 poll. A plurality of Americans call themselves independents, and •卢格,早已被茶党激进分子的风头盖过。 on the most divisive economic argument—how to solve the budget mess—two in three of them back a combination of Mr Obama has tried harder to compromise. But he foolishly spending cuts and tax rises. But politics is being driven by failed to embrace a long-term budget solution put forward by extremists who reject any such compromise (see article). the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles commission, which he himself 乍一看,驴象之争无人得益。民众对奥巴马的工作认可度仅有 45%。最 appointed. Ever since the furor over the debt ceiling this 新民意调查显示, 国会的支持率已跌落至 9%。 多数美国人以独立派自诩, summer, he has “pivoted” to the left, dabbling in class war, 而就两党目前扯皮的经济议题(财政预算问题) ,有二分之三的“无党派” promising his supporters that the budget can be solved by 人士表示支持削减开支与提高税收并举的措施。 可惜操纵政治的是些极端 taxing “millionaires and billionaires”. He is also trying to issue 分子,他们绝不同意这样类似的折中方案。 more executive orders, to bypass Congress (see article). 奥巴马已试图努力扮演好和事佬。 而令人啼笑皆非的是他却不能接受由自 The right is mostly to blame. Ronald Reagan, a divorcee who did 己亲口任命的赤字削减委员会联席主席辛普森和鲍尔斯提出的赤字削减 little for the pro-life lobby and raised taxes when he had to, 计划(又是一次失败的两党合作) 。自今年夏天债务上限风波发生以来, would never be nominated today. Mr Romney, like all the 奥巴马的执政路线逐渐“左倾”: 搞阶级斗争, 向支持者许诺他将通过向“超 Republican presidential candidates, recently pledged to reject 级富翁”征税解决预算问题。还试图绕开国会,签署更多总统令。 tax rises, even as part of a deal where spending cuts would be ten times bigger. Mr Cain surged briefly to the front of the pack The divisiveness is hardly new, but it is increasingly structural. because of a plan that would cut personal taxes to 9% As the battle for billions of campaign dollars heats up, neither (seeLexington); Mr Perry lost support for wanting to educate side dares grant the other any modicum of success, or risk the the children of illegal immigrants. Meanwhile, in Congress, the ire of its donors by appearing to compromise. Gerrymandered few remaining pragmatic Republican centrists, like Senator districts mean that most congressmen fear their partisans in the Richard Lugar, are being hunted down by tea-party activists. primaries more than their opponents in the general election. 事已至此,右翼分子最难辞其咎。像罗纳德•里根这种既不反对堕胎,在 Ever more divisive media feed the activists’ prejudices. So, at 不得已时还会提高税收的婚姻离异人士, 在今天是绝对不可能被提名当总 worst, a bitter contest could merely reinforce the gridlock, with 统的。罗姆尼可谓延续了共和党总统竞选人的一贯作风,他最近公开表态 a re-elected, more leftish Comrade Obama pitted against a still 反对提高税收,甚至愿意用大幅提高开支削减度作为代替政策。而凯恩提 more intransigent Republican Congress. 出的一项能将个人所得税削减至 9%的税收计划则将他暂时推到了领跑 两党不和由来已久, 可现今却上升至结构上的冲突。 烧钱大选日渐白热化, 者的位置。 佩里因其支持对非法移民子女提供教育的政策而丧失了大量支 驴象双方都生怕给对方增添一丝获胜的筹码,也不敢表现出丝毫妥协迹《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 21. The Economist Economist Study Association 象,唯恐惹怒背后支持自己的资金团。格里蝾螈选区(即不公正划分的选 And so the fantasy continues, for that is sadly what it is. Even if 区)的出现意味着大部分议员们更担心来自党内分子的竞争,而不是换届 the money were forthcoming, there are all sorts of institutional 选举中的对手。媒体不公正的报道更是助长了了这些议员的偏见。所以两 barriers, especially to starting new parties, and the record of 党激战的最坏结果不过就是加深这种僵持局面而已——一个赢得连任,更 even very well-heeled third-party presidential candidates is “左”的奥长官单挑一个更倔强的共和党国会。 bleak. Instead, the middle will have to be recreated from what is already there. Wishing on a star 白日梦当然可以一直做下去,这也正是其可悲之处。就算赞助资金指日可 对星星许愿 待,依旧会有各种制度的阻碍,尤其是成立新党派方面的。更何况,历史 In other countries such a huge gap in the middle would see the 上从未出现过这样一位有钱有势的第三方政党的候选人。事实是,中间派 creation of a third party to represent the alienated majority. 反而不得不从现有两党中生成。 Imagine a presidential candidate next year who spelled out the need for deep future cuts in spending on entitlements and The immediate, rather slim, chance is of a grand bargain on the defence, as well as the need to raise some revenue (largely by budget emerging out of a congressional “super committee” set getting rid of deductions); who explained that the pain would be up after the debt-ceiling fiasco. If it were to embrace a centrist applied only after the recovery was solidly in place; who avoided option, politics over the next year would be considerably more class or culture wars; who discussed school reform without fear civilised. But it too appears deadlocked, with the Republicans of the Democrats’ paymasters in the teachers’ unions. Better once again ruling out tax increases of any kind. still, imagine a new centrist block in Congress, which might give 目前看来, 债务危机后成立的“超级委员会”提交两党新合作预算方案的机 that candidate (or for that matter a President Obama or Romney) 率相当渺茫。若委员会提出了折中方案,那么政客们明年起码会收敛些。 something to work with in 2013. 但倘若共和党再度否定任何增税提案,美国将在负税问题上再陷僵局 换做其他国家,一旦出现中间派大批消失的情况,马上就会有第三方政党 成立来代表这些被孤立的大众。假设明年总统大选中有这样一位候选人: So, back to the campaign. It is not entirely without hope. You 他能明确阐述大刀阔斧的削减福利和国防开支的必要性, 以及通过废除免 can win the White House only by winning that disenfranchised 税政策提高部分税收的紧迫性;他会向民众解释,现在的苦是为了经济稳 middle. For Mr Romney and his party the danger is clear: the 步复苏后的甜;他有能力避开阶级和文化斗争,也可以不畏民主党财团的 Republicans’ intolerant obstructionism could drive independents 淫威在教师工会里畅谈学校改革。更妙的假设是,国会中会出现一个新兴 away. But Mr Obama also has a lot to prove. Why re-elect a man 中间派团体,他们可以让那位候选人(或者给奥巴马总统或罗姆尼)在 who has failed to unite Americans? Now should surely be the 2013 年有事可做。 time for the president to seize the centre ground. Otherwise, in a year’s time he may well see his own name added to the rolls of《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 22. The Economist Economist Study Association those who have lost their job. Turkish foreign policy 好吧,言归正传谈大选。想要赢得大选也绝非毫无希望:得中间派者得天 土耳其的外交政策 下。罗姆尼领导的政党面临的问题很明确:共和党人小肚鸡肠蓄意搞破坏 的作风会让他们失去大批中间派选民。而奥巴马也急需重振雄风证明自 Ottoman dreamer 己。一个连自己的民众都团结不起来的人,凭什么保住总统之位?现在是 总统先生拉拢中间派的最佳时机。否则明年此时,他很可能看到自己的大 奥斯曼帝国的梦想家 名也被列在“失业者”的名单里。 Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s activist foreign policy has its 翻译者:王葭苇&靳浩然 strengths. Cheap populism is not one of them 埃尔多安的积极外交政策有它的优点。但廉价的民粹主义,不在其中。 IN THEIR awakening this year, many Arabs have looked to Turkey for inspiration. Turkey is not just a fellow Muslim country and their former imperial power. It also offers, for all its faults, a shining (and rare) example in the Islamic world of a strong democracy and a successful free-market economy. And the Turks have responded well, if sometimes belatedly. They were early to call for change in Egypt. They endorsed NATO’s intervention in Libya. They are now unequivocally backing the opposition to the Assad regime in neighbouring Syria. 今年,在他们的觉醒之年,许多阿拉伯国家向土耳其寻求灵感和力量。因 为土耳其不只是穆斯林国家之一,还曾经是他们的帝国霸主。尽管它犯了 很多错误,但土耳其依旧给伊斯兰世界提供展示了一个强有力的民主和成 功的自由市场经济这一光辉(而且罕见)的例子。土耳其对各种事件反应 积极,尽管有时滞后。他们早先就呼吁埃及作出改变,赞同北约在利比亚 的调停。现在,他们毫不含糊地支持邻国叙利亚反对派与阿萨德政权对峙。 Yet Turkey’s active foreign policy has attracted censure in parts of the West, especially America. Critics in Washington recall the Turks’ 2003 refusal to allow American troops to cross their《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 23. The Economist Economist Study Association territory to invade Iraq. Nowadays they accuse the Turkish 美国空军基地。但是欧盟成员国,如塞浦路斯,法国,德国——但没有土 government of turning its back on the European Union and NATO. 耳其——都在尽可能地阻止土耳其通过谈判加入他们的联盟。 They point to continuing harsh treatment of Turkey’s Kurds and soft treatment of Iran. Above all, they blame Turkey for switching Even if broad-brush criticisms of Turkey’s foreign policy are from being a firm friend of Israel, the only other established overdone, some narrower ones are closer to the mark. It is no democracy in the region, into an implacable foe. use professing to want zero problems with the neighbours 然而,土耳其的积极外交政策已经招致部分西方国家,尤其是美国的责难。 without making a much broader effort to resolve such ancient 华盛顿的批评家们回顾了 2003 年土耳其拒绝允许美国军队越过其领土入 quarrels as those with Armenia or over Cyprus. Turkey’s newly 侵伊拉克事件。如今,他们指责土耳其政府背弃欧盟和北约。评论家的矛 strong support for the Syrian opposition may be both brave and 头指向土政府对国内库尔德人持续的严酷对待和对伊朗的软处理。 尤其是, admirable, but the Turks should have urged reform and some 他们指责土耳其与在该地区建立的除它之外唯一的民主国家以色列从坚定 dialogue between the opposition and the regime at an earlier 的朋友变成不共戴天的敌人。 stage (see article). 虽然对土耳其外交政策的粗略评论有些过分,但一些细节却与评论相差无 Are such sweeping accusations justified? On the whole, no. The 几。自称想与邻国毫无争端,和平共处,而没有做出更广泛的努力来解决 mildly Islamist Justice and Development (AK) government led by 与亚美尼亚或塞浦路斯的历史遗留问题,这是没有用的。土耳其最近对叙 Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, is right to pursue a 利亚反动派的强力支持可能是勇敢的,令人钦佩的,但土耳其本该在更早 policy, first enunciated by Ahmet Davutoglu, now foreign minister, 的阶段就敦促反动派和政权之间作出改革和进行对话(见文章) 。 of “zero problems with the neighbours”. This is a big improvement on previous governments that largely ignored their The mercurial and often autocratic instincts of Mr Erdogan are own backyard. Turkey remains a bastion of NATO, with the not conducive to careful diplomacy, as his belligerent recent biggest army after the United States and a vital American outbursts over Greek-Cypriot and Israeli gas exploration in the air-force base at Incirlik. It is EU members like Cyprus, France eastern Mediterranean have shown. As complex relations with and Germany—and not Turkey—that have done most to stall Syria, Iran and Iraq are also confirming again, Turkey must reach Turkish negotiations to join their club. a political settlement with its own Kurds if it is to play a positive 这种一刀切的指控合理吗?从总体上看,是不公正的。总理埃尔多安领导 role in the region. Yet Mr Erdogan seems to be moving back to a 的温和伊斯兰正义和发展(AK)政府奉行的由现在外交部长艾哈迈德达武 purely military solution to the conflict with rebels in the Kurdistan 特奥卢首先阐述的“与邻国零问题”的政策是正确的。相比历届政府很大程 Workers’ Party (PKK). 度上忽略自己的邻国,这是一个很大的改善。土耳其一直是北约的堡垒, 埃尔多安先生反复无常, 常常独断专行的本性不利于谨慎外交, 、 他对希腊, 在北约中,拥有除美国以外最大的军队规模,还有位于因斯里克的重要的 塞浦路斯和以色列在地中海东部勘探天然气一事爆发的宣战倾向正表明这《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 24. The Economist Economist Study Association 一点。由于土耳其与叙利亚,伊朗和伊拉克的复杂关系还需再次确认,如 以色列的态度作为其更广泛外交的标准(整体外交策略的缩影)。如果土耳 果它想在该地区发挥积极作用,就必须与国内的库尔德人的达成政治协定。 其要保持与西方的良好关系,那么它必须找到改善土以关系则是必由之路。 然而,埃尔多安先生似乎要回归纯粹的军事手段,来解决与库尔德工人党 (PKK)叛军的冲突。 翻译者:曹宝平&毕硕 Mend fences with Jerusalem, too 与耶路撒冷的关系也需要弥补 And then there are relations with Israel, which have never recovered after the Israeli army’s killing of eight Turks and one Turkish-American aboard a Gaza-bound ship, theMavi Marmara, last year. The intransigent Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, is not popular with many EU governments or with the current American administration. He has been foolishly stubborn to refuse even the smallest apology over the Mavi Marmara. But if Mr Erdogan calculates that he can pander to anti-Israeli prejudice at home without paying a price abroad, he is making a mistake. Turkey stands to gain from stable Arab-Israeli relations, which it ought ideally to be well-placed to promote. And, like it or not, many in the West take Turkey’s attitude to Israel as a yardstick of its broader intentions. If Turkey wants to preserve good relations with the West, it must find some way of mending fences with Israel as well. 再就是与以色列的关系,从去年以色列军队在一艘前往加沙的名为 Mavi Marmara 的船上杀害八名土耳其人和一个土耳其裔美国人后,他们的关 系再未恢复。不妥协的以色列总理内塔尼亚胡并不受很多欧盟国家和当今 美国政府欢迎。 他一直愚蠢地坚持拒绝就 Mavi Marmara 事件做出些许的 道歉但是,如果埃尔多安先生认为他可以怂恿国内偏见,而在国外没有丝 毫代价,那他就错了。土耳其一定会从稳定的阿以关系中获利,这也是它 应该端正态度去促进的。而且,不管喜欢与否,许多西方国家将土耳其对《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 25. The Economist Economist Study Association Brazil’s economy offshore fields. That might make Brazil a top-five source of oil 巴西的经济 (see article). 在南大西洋深处,一项巨大的工业工程正在进行中,巴西领导人认为此项 The devil in the deep-sea oil 工程在十年内将把巴西变成一个石油强国。如果巴西石油公司的这一雄心 勃勃的计划变得更加成熟的话,那么到 2020 年为止,巴西每天就会生产 深海石油里的恶魔 500 万桶石油,其中很多都是出自新发现的近海油田。这也许能使巴西成 Unless the government restrains itself, an oil boom risks 为世界五大石油资源国之一(参见文献) 。 feeding Brazil’s vices 除非政府自我调控,否则石油热将会助长巴西社会恶习 Managed wisely, this boom has the potential to do great good.Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, wants to use the oil money to pay for better education, health and infrastructure. She also wants to use the new fields to create a world-beating oil-services industry. But the bonanza also risks feeding some Brazilian vices: a spendthrift and corrupt political system; an over-mighty state and over-protected domestic market; and neglect of the virtues of saving, investment and training. 如果经营有方,这一上涨可能会带来潜在好处。巴西总统迪尔玛•罗塞夫希 望通过石油收入更好地发展教育、医疗和基础设施。同时她也希望利用这 些新的油田创造一个世界级的石油服务行业。但是这一幸运之事也可能助 长巴西某些社会恶习的滋生:一个挥霍无度并腐败的政体;一个权力过大 的国家;一个被过度保护的国内市场;便会忽视储蓄、投资、培训的优势。 So it is worrying that there is far more debate inBrazilabout how to spend the oil money than about how to develop the fields. If DEEP in the South Atlantic, a vast industrial operation is under Brazil’s economy is to benefit from oil, rather than be dominated way that Brazil’s leaders say will turn their country into an oil by it, a big chunk of the proceeds should be saved offshore and power by the end of this decade. If the ambitious plans of used to offset future recessions. But the more immediate risks lie Petrobras, the national oil company, come to fruition, by 2020 in how the oil is extracted. Brazil will be producing 5m barrels per day, much of it from new 令人担忧的是在巴西国内就如何花这笔钱比如何发展油田更加有争议。如《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 26. The Economist Economist Study Association 果巴西经济能够从石油中获益而不是被其左右,那么收益的大部分应该被 为了发展新油田,建造包括精炼厂在内的在岸设备,巴西石油公司计划在 离岸储存起来,并用来弥补未来的经济衰退。但更加急迫的任务是石油如 接下来的 5 年每年投资 450 亿美元,这对世界上任何一家石油公司来说都 何能被完全提取。 是最大的投资项目。不管对巴西石油公司还是巴西本国来说,这样的投资 太多、太快——尤其因为政府已经颁布相关法令让必要的设备供给要有相 The government has established a complicated legal framework 当大的比例在国内生产。 for the fields. It has vested their ownership in Pré-Sal Petróleo, a new state body whose job is merely to collect and spend the oil How to be Norway, not Venezuela money. It has granted an operating monopoly to Petrobras 如何成为挪威,而不是委内瑞拉? (although the company can strike production-sharing By demanding so much local content, the government may in agreements with private partners). The rationale was that, since fact be favouring some of the leading foreign oil-service everyone now knows where the oil is, the lion’s share of the companies. Many would have set up in Brazil anyway; now, with profits should go to the nation. But this glides over the less price competition from abroad, they will find it easier to complexity in developing fields that lie up to 300km (190 miles) charge over the odds. Seeking to ramp up production so fast, and offshore, beneath 2km of water and up to 5km of salt and rock. relying so heavily on local supplies, also risks starving non-oil 政府已为油田构建了一个复杂的法律体制。并且把它们的所有权给了 businesses of capital and skilled labour (which is in desperately Pré-Sal Petróleo,一个新的国家机构,其工作仅仅是收集和花费石油收 short supply). Oil money is already helping to drive up Brazil’s 入。政府还把运营垄断权给了巴西石油公司(尽管该公司能够与私人合作 currency, the real, hurting manufacturers struggling with high 伙伴达成生产分成的共识) 。这里的基本原理是。既然每个人都知道石油在 taxes and poor infrastructure. 哪里,那么最大的利润份额应该归国家所有。但这忽略了开发油田的复杂 对于政府要求的很多当地资源,事实上它可能更对某些外国石油服务公司 性,这些油田距离海岸高达 300 千米(190 英里)处,水下 2 千米,最 很感兴趣,至少许多已经可以在巴西建立了。现在,更少的海外价格竞争 高可达 5 千米。 使它们更容易多要价。寻求快速提高生产率,并严重的依赖当地供应,这 会冒着使非石油业者丧失资本和熟练劳动力(二者正处于严重短缺状态) To develop the new fields, and build onshore facilities including 的风险。石油收入正在使巴西货币上扬,而真正那些受损失的制造商则和 refineries, Petrobras plans to invest $45 billion a year for the next 高额赋税和薄弱的基础设施作斗争。 five years, the largest investment programme of any oil firm in the world. That is too much, too soon, both for Petrobras and When it comes to oil, striking the right balance between the state forBrazil—especially because the government has decreed that a and the private sector, and between national content and foreign large proportion of the necessary equipment and supplies be expertise, is notoriously tricky. But it can be done. To kick-start produced at home. an oil-services industry,Norway calibrated its national-content《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 27. The Economist Economist Study Association rules realistically in scope and duration, required foreign suppliers to work closely with local firms and forced Statoil, its national oil company, to bid against rivals to develop fields. Above all, it invested in training the workforce. 每当谈及石油,在国有和私营部门之间、国产物资和外国技术之间找到平 衡点是众所周知的棘手。但还是能够做到的。为了开启石油服务行业,挪 威调整了国有物资在范围和持续时间方面的规定,要求外国供应商同当地 公司合作,并且强迫挪威国家石油公司同竞争对手投标以发展油田。除此 以外,挪威致力于投资训练劳动力。 But Brazilians need only to look at Mexico’s Pemex to see the politicised bloat that can follow an oil boom—or at Venezuela to see how oil can corrupt a country. Petrobras is not Pemex. Thanks to a meritocratic culture, and the discipline of having some of its stock traded, Petrobras is a leader in deep-sea oil. But operating as a monopolist is a poor way to maintain that edge. Happily, too,Brazil is not Venezuela. Its leaders can prove it by changing the rules to be more Norwegian. 但是巴西人只需要看一看墨西哥——墨西哥石油公司的油价上涨带来的政 治性膨胀,或者看一看委内瑞拉——石油是如何使一个国家走向腐败的。 巴西石油公司不同于墨西哥石油公司,由于它具备精英管理的企业文化和 严格的股票交易原则,巴西石油在深海石油行业中是领导者。但以垄断者 的身份运营是保持其优势的一种拙劣的方式。同样可喜的是,巴西不同于 委内瑞拉,它的领导人们可以通过改变政策的方法来效仿挪威,用于证明 这一点。 翻译者:管浩波&赵兴昊《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 28. The Economist Economist Study Association Schumpeter 与地震不同,人口灾难的降临是有预兆的。到 2050 年,日本 1 亿 2 熊彼得专栏 千 700 万人预计会下降到 9 千万。就在不久前的 1990 年,日本的劳动年 龄人口对儿童和老龄人口之和的比例是 7 比 3。而到 2050 年,这个比例 Land of the wasted talent 会是 1 比 1。随着日本社会的老龄化和经济衰退,日本的企业将会去哪里 寻找富有活力、精力充沛的员工呢? 人才浪费的地方 Japanese firms face a demographic catastrophe. The For a company president pondering this question over a solution is to treat women better laboriously prepared breakfast of steamed rice, broiled salmon, 日本公司面临着人口灾难。解决的办法是提高对女性的待遇。 miso soup and artistically presented pickles, the answer is literally staring him in the face. Half the talent in Japan is female. Outside the kitchen, those talents are woefully underemployed, as Sylvia Ann Hewlett and Laura Sherbin of the Centre for Work-Life Policy, an American think-tank, show in a new study called “Off-Ramps and On-Ramps: Japan”. 如果一位公司总裁一边思考这个问题,一边享用着精心准备的早餐, 那么问题的答案就藏在那蒸米饭、烤三文鱼、酱汤、和精致的咸菜中。日 本有一半的人才是女性。而工作与生活政策中心(一家美国智库)的希尔 维 亚 * 安 * 修 雷 特 ( Sylvia Ann Hewlett ) 和 劳 拉 * 舍 宾 ( Laura Sherbin)做了一项新的名为“日本:出口匝道和进口匝道”研究,其中显 示,那些女性人才在厨房外未能充分就业,令人遗憾。 Nearly half of Japanese university graduates are female but only 67% of these women have jobs, many of which are UNLIKE an earthquake, a demographic disaster does not strike part-time or involve serving tea. Japanese women with degrees without warning. Japan’s population of 127m is predicted to fall are much more likely than Americans (74% to 31%) to quit their to 90m by 2050. As recently as 1990, working-age Japanese jobs voluntarily. Whereas most Western women who take time outnumbered children and the elderly by seven to three. By 2050 off do so to look after children, Japanese women are more likely the ratio will be one to one. As Japan grows old and feeble, where to say that the strongest push came from employers who do not will its companies find dynamic, energetic workers? value them. A startling 49% of highly educated Japanese women《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 29. The Economist Economist Study Association who quit do so because they feel their careers have stalled. nearly 80% of Japanese men get home after 7pm, and many 近半数的日本大学毕业生是女性,但只有其中的 67%拥有工作,且多 attend semi-compulsory drinking binges in hostess bars until the 数是兼职或是做端茶倒水的服务生。拥有学历的日本女性比美国女性更有 small hours. Base salaries are low; salarymen are expected to fill 可能自愿离职(74%比 31%)。休假对于绝大多数的西方女性而言是为 their pay packets by putting in heroic amounts of overtime. 了照顾孩子,而对于日本女性来说,最大的原因恐怕是迫于不受雇主重视。 就算公司的规章制度上写着允许弹性上班制,那些在家工作的员工却 高学历的日本女性中有高达 49%的人是有感于自己停滞不前的职业生涯 仍然被认为是没有对团队尽心尽力。员工被要求在早上 9 点之前到岗,即 而选择离职的。 便通常要花很长时间在地铁里,拥挤到连小偷都不知道在偷谁的东西。员 工还迫于压力在办公室留到很晚,不管他们是不是真的需要加班工作:80 The Japanese workplace is not quite as sexist as it used to be. %的日本男性晚上 7 点以后才能回到家,他们之中不少人还会参加半强制 Pictures of naked women, ubiquitous on salarymen’s desks in the 性的饮酒聚会,在夜总会与女招待狂饮到凌晨。工薪族的基本工资很低, 1990s, have been removed. Most companies have rules against 他们必须通过大量的加班来添补自己的薪酬收入。 sexual discrimination. But educated women are often shunted into dead-end jobs. Old-fashioned bosses see their role as Besides finding these hours just a bit inconvenient, working prettifying the office and forming a pool of potential marriage mothers are unlikely to get much help at home from their partners for male employees. And a traditional white-collar husbands. Japanese working mums do four hours of child care working day makes it hard to pick up the kids from school. and housework each day—eight times as much as their spouses. 日本的工作场所已不像过去那样充满性别歧视,比如在男性员工的办 Thanks to restrictive immigration laws, they cannot hire cheap 公桌上已经看不到在上世纪 90 年代常见的女性裸体照片,而绝大多数公 help. A Japanese working mother cannot sponsor a foreign 司也制定规章制度反对性别歧视。尽管如此,受过教育的女性却经常被分 nanny for a visa, though it is not hard for a nightclub owner to get 流到毫无发展前途的工作上。守旧的老板们只是把女性员工当作装点办公 “entertainer” visas for young Filipinas in short skirts. That says 室的花瓶,以及为男性员工储备潜在结婚对象。传统白领的工作时间也难 something about Japanese lawmakers’ priorities. And it helps 以让女性到学校接孩子。 explain why Japanese women struggle to climb the career ladder: only 10% of Japanese managers are female, compared with 46% Even if the company rule book says that flexitime is allowed, in America. those who work from home are seen as uncommitted to the team. Employees are expected to show their faces before 9am, 对于有工作的母亲来说,不仅这样的工作时间有些不方便,在家里还 typically after a long commute on a train so packed that the 不太可能得到丈夫的帮助。在日本,有工作的母亲每天要花四小时照看孩 gropers cannot tell whom they are groping. Staff are also under 子及做家务,这比她们配偶花的时间多七倍。另外,由于移民法的限制, pressure to stay late, regardless of whether they have work to do: 她们不能雇佣廉价的保姆。一个有工作的日本母亲不能为外籍保姆提供签《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 30. The Economist Economist Study Association 证担保,然而一个夜总会老板却能轻易为穿超短裙的菲律宾女孩拿到艺人 富有的外国人对女性更加友好 签证,这反映了日本立法者优先考虑的事情,也多少解释了为什么日本女 性在职业发展之路上行进艰难:在日本,只有 10%的经理是女性,而在美 What can be done? For Japanese women, the best bet is to 国则有 46%。 work for a foreign company. Two-thirds of university-educated Japanese firms are careful to recycle paper but careless Japanese women see European or American firms as more about wasting female talent. Some 66% of highly educated female-friendly than Japanese ones. Foreign firms in Japan (and Japanese women who quit their jobs say they would not have similarly sexist South Korea) see a wealth of undervalued clever done so if their employers had allowed flexible working women and make a point of hiring them. One woman who arrangements. The vast majority (77%) of women who take time switched from a Japanese bank to a foreign one marvelled that: off work want to return. But only 43% find a job, compared with “The women here have opinions. They talk back. They are 73% in America. Of those who do go back to work, 44% are paid direct.” less than they were before they took time off, and 40% have to 那有什么解决问题的办法吗?对于日本女性来说,她们最好的选择是 accept less responsibility or a less prestigious title. Goldman 为外企工作。三分之二的拥有本科学历的日本女性认为欧美公司比日本公 Sachs estimates that if Japan made better use of its educated 司对女性更加友好。在日本(以及同样有性别歧视的韩国)的外国公司认 women, it would add 8.2m brains to the workforce and expand 为女性的聪明才能被低估了,于是选择招聘她们。一位从日本的银行跳槽 the economy by 15%—equivalent to about twice the size of the 到外国银行的女性惊叹道:“这儿的女性可以拥有自己的观点见解。她们可 country’s motor industry. 以反驳,说话直截了当。” 日本公司注重纸张的回收,却忽略了女性人才的浪费。大约 66%离职 Japanese companies have much to learn from the gaijin. IBM 的高学历女性认为,如果雇主能够允许灵活的工作安排,她们就不会离职 Japan encourages flexitime. BMKK, the Japanese arm of 了。绝大多数(77%)的女性在休假后想返回工作岗位,但这其中只有 43 Bristol-Myers Squibb, a drug firm, has a programme to woo back %重新找到了工作,对比而言,美国有 73%的离职女性后来又重返职场。 women who have taken maternity leave. Why can’t native 在那 43%确实返回职场的日本女性中,44%的人收入比休假前减少了, Japanese firms do likewise? A few, such as Shiseido, a cosmetics 还有 40%的人比以前更加不受重用,职位也不如从前。据高盛估计,如果 firm, try hard. But apparently small concessions to work-life 日本更好地发挥受过教育的日本女性的作用,日本的劳动力市场将会增加 balance can require a big change in the local corporate mindset. 820 万劳动人才,日本的经济也会因此扩张 15%——这相当于日本全国汽 Working from home should be easy: everyone has broadband. 车产业规模的两倍。 But Japanese bosses are not used to judging people by their performance, sighs Yoko Ishikura, an expert on business Filthy foreigners are more female-friendly strategy at Keio University.《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 31. The Economist Economist Study Association 日本企业有很多需要向外人学习。IBM 日本分公司鼓励弹性上班制。 Loyalty cards and insurance 百时美施贵宝制药公司在日本的分部 BMKK,也计划吸引休产假的女性员 忠诚卡和保险 工回到公司。为什么本土的日本公司就不能这样做呢?有些日本公司如资 生堂化妆品公司正在努力这样做。但是,为了平衡工作和生活而作出让步 显然需要本土企业理念的巨大转变。在家工作应该是容易的:每个人都有 Every little helps 宽带网。“然而,日本的老板并不习惯于通过工作表现来判断员工。”庆应 义塾大学的企业战略专家石仓洋子感慨道。 点滴皆有助益 As it pushes into finance, Tesco’s Clubcard gives it a The firms that make the best use of female talent are often competitive edge those where women can find sponsors. Most of the women interviewed for the study by Ms Hewlett and Ms Sherbin who got 特易购进军金融市场,会员卡制度保证其竞争优势 back on the career track after time off did so because a manager SOME young drivers get tanked up and wrap their cars round remembered how good they were and lobbied for them to be lampposts; others drive carefully, and sober. Insurers would love rehired. Eiko, one of the women interviewed, felt pressure from to collect more background information on the personal habits of her male colleagues to quit when she became pregnant and those buying motor, household and life policies, but do not want announced that she was leaving to do an MBA. Her clear-sighted to put off potential customers with intrusive questionnaires. So boss realised that this was not what she really wanted to do. He they end up pooling groups of people by such basic factors as age, suggested leaving Tokyo and working at another branch with a occupation and postcode, which means that some low-risk more supportive atmosphere. Eiko transferred to Hong Kong, customers are lumped in with risky ones and subsidise their where career women are admired and nannies are cheap. cover. 那些能够充分发挥女性才能的公司通常为女性员工提供资助。在修雷 特和舍宾女士的研究项目中,绝大多数休假后返岗的女性在受访时表明自 一些年轻的司机总爱喝的酩酊大醉或把车草草停在路灯旁,而另一些司机 己返回工作岗位的原因是经理记得她们工作时的良好表现,于是说服她们 却能谨慎而清醒。保险公司永远热衷于搜集那些购买汽车,家居用品和人 回到公司。一位叫英子的受访女性称,她怀孕以后感受到了来自男同事的 寿保险的人群的个人信息,但他们早已明白那些恼人的问卷会赶走潜在的 压力,于是宣布自己离职去读 MBA。她的老板很精明地意识到这并不是英 顾客。于是他们最终选择了收集顾客群基本信息如年龄,收入和邮编的方 子真正想做的。于是,他建议英子离开东京,去公司的另一个分部工作, 式。这意味着低风险客户被无形中与那些高风险客户集中起来,从而弥补 那儿的环境能为员工提供更多支持。英子随后转调香港分部,在那儿,不 保险公司受到的损失。 仅职业女性受到崇拜,而且雇请保姆的费用也相对较低。 翻译者:林坤&孙卉芸 If only insurers could stealthily gather a few titbits about their《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 32. The Economist Economist Study Association potential policyholders’ consumption habits. Such hints might of an unused Clubcard it earned a 1% discount. When they gave help them more accurately target those customers least likely to the same personal details but quoted the numbers of heavily make claims, and attract them with better rates. As it happens, used Clubcards, the discounts varied greatly, reaching 18%. To Tesco routinely collects such information from holders of its paraphrase Tesco’s slogan, it seems that every little scrap of Clubcard loyalty card. As it bulks up in financial services, that information helps. may giveBritain’s largest supermarket chain an edge over 特易购方面拒绝为本文提供关于会员卡使用的具体信息。但是来自伦敦政 traditional insurers. 治经济学院的学生就此进行课题项目研究。他们在向特易购提交汽车险时 要是保险公司能够暗地搜集到潜在投保客户的相关消费偏好记录就好了。 发现,若提供未使用的会员卡,只能获得1%的折扣,但若用提供使用频 这些信息也许能帮助他们更精准的锁定最不可能索赔的目标人群,然后用 率较高的会员卡,就算提供的是相同个人信息,折扣竟能飙升至18%。由 更实惠的保险费率吸引他们。特易购就能做到这点,他们时不时会从持卡 此我们或许可以这样解读特易购的标语,点滴皆有助益。 客户端搜集此类信息。随着特易购在金融服务领域的业务膨胀,也许相较 传统保险公司,这一全英最大的连锁超市将会因此取得明显优势。 翻译者:黄和雨&穆雪 To give an obvious example, it would be worth offering pet insurance to someone who has started buying kitty-litter. Buying lots of booze does not make you a drunk-driver, but someone who buys little or none seems less likely to be one. Buyers of window locks are likely to be more security-conscious, and so on. 也许举例更能说明问题,向一个刚购买猫砂的人推销宠物保险无疑为明智 之举。又如此例,大批量买酒的人不一定会醉驾,反而是那些平日少买或 不买酒的人,才最有可能满身酒气的上路。再者购买窗锁的人可能更加重 视安全问题,等等。 Tesco declined to discuss how it uses Clubcard data for this article. But a group of students at the London School of Economics carried out a class project in which they made several applications for Tesco car insurance. When they gave the number《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 33. The Economist Economist Study Association TCS in America Mumbai. Bought in 2008, the Ohio facility is a symbol of TCS’s 印度塔塔咨询服务公司在美国 efforts to polish its brand and move to higher-margin services. 沿着俄亥俄州米尔福德名叫领袖的林荫小道驱车直上, 你会到达一个地方, From Mumbai to the Midwest 外面看起来很像是一个豪华的滑雪度假小舍。小舍内有个大大的窗户可以 看到外面的森林,让人不免想到这是在美国的中心地带。这就是塔塔咨询 从孟买到美国中西部 服务公司在美国新建的办公场所,和孟买的总部形成了鲜明对比—傲然矗 Far from home, Tata Consultancy Services 立在闷热的板球场旁边,颇有殖民时期的建筑风格。塔塔咨询服务公司 strives to move upmarket 2008 年在俄亥俄州买下这个办公场所,标志着该公司正努力提升品牌, 印度塔塔咨询服务公司 千里迢迢来到美国开拓高端市场 并开拓高端市场的。 DRIVE up the leafy One reason for choosing Milford, a satellite of Cincinnati, was the Leadership Trail in proximity of Midwestern clients: ten Fortune 500 companies are Milford, Ohio and you based in Cincinnati alone. Another is cost: it is one of the reach what appears cheapest among America’s main cities and has plenty of land on from the outside to be its fringes. a luxury ski lodge. 之所以选择辛辛那提的卫星城米尔福德, 是为了接近中西部的客户:500 Inside, large windows 强企业中有十家都建在辛辛那提。另一个原因是成本:它是美国消费最低 with forest views are a 的城市之一,周围有大片的土地。 constant reminder of the surrounding A third reason for choosing Ohio is the presence of decent American heartland. universities nearby. TCS set up shop in Milford not only to be This is Tata closer to clients but to begin in earnest to hire American Consultancy Services’ graduates. Most of TCS’s new coders in Ohio are fresh from the new American facility, nearby universities of Kentucky, Cincinnati, Purdue, Ohio State a stark contrast to and others. They are cheaper than Ivy League graduates and TCS’s colonial-era TCS offers them interesting work with a booming company. The headquarters facility has 450 employees now, nearly all American, thanks to overlooking sweltering the difficulty of getting visas for Indians, and the plan is to cricket pitches in increase their number to 1,000. They are a fraction of TCS’s《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 34. The Economist Economist Study Association 215,000-strong workforce but represent the bridgehead of its However, Jagdish Rao, a technology chief at Citigroup, says most ambitions to go beyond being merely an outsourced back-office of the consulting work TCS has done so far has been on systems and coding shop and take on such consultancy giants as IBM, TCS had built or implemented itself. Tom Rodenhauser of Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Accenture on their home turf. Kennedy Information, which studies the consulting industry, 另外一个选择俄亥俄州的原因是附近有很多非常不错的大学。塔塔咨询服 agrees that it has yet to make a breakthrough in high-end work. 务公司将办公场所设在米尔福德店不仅仅是为了接近客户,更是急于着手 Although TCS is “printing money” with its outsourcing business, 在美国研究生中招兵买马。塔塔咨询服务公司最近在俄亥俄州雇佣的编程 he “can’t say with a straight face they’re doing great at 人员大多都毕业于肯塔基大学、辛辛那提大学、普渡大学、俄亥俄州立大 consulting—they’re giving away what other companies charge 学和附近的其他大学。他们的劳动成本低于常青藤院校的毕业生,而公司 for”, as a way of selling their legacy outsourcing services. 的蓬勃发展也给他们带来了有趣的工作。由于印度人很难获得美国签证, 然而,花旗银行首席技术官杰格迪什·饶说,到目前为止塔塔公司大部分的 该公司目前雇佣的 450 名员工几乎都是美国人, 并且计划增加到 1000 人。 咨询工作都是通过自己建立或实施的系统完成的。肯尼迪信息公司研究咨 虽然这只是该公司 215000 名劳动力的一小部分,却表明了它想要从 询行业的汤姆·罗德霍撒认为塔塔公司任需在高端工作中有所突破。尽管塔 一个外包后台和编码公司过渡到赶超美国本土咨询巨头 IBM,惠普(HP) 塔公司的外包业务让它大把捞进钞票,他 “还是不能严格的说他们咨询也 和埃森哲的公司。 做得很棒,”他们只不过是通过赠送其他公司收费的服务,如同出售传统的 外包方式服务。 Having pleased clients with its work for them so far, TCS should have a decent chance at getting them to buy fancier and pricier Amar Naga, the boss of the Milford facility, admits that consulting services. David Johns, chief information officer at Owens Corning, proper is so far just 2.6% of TCS’s revenue. But it is growing a building-materials maker, is full of praise for TCS; his company more than twice as fast as the company’s overall revenues, has doubled its overall spending with the firm in recent years. themselves still increasing at around 25% a year. Such Citigroup sold its India-based business-process unit to TCS, eye-catching growth, combined with its reputation for guaranteed it $275m annually in business for several years, and high-quality work, suggests clients can be convinced that TCS’s then proceeded to spend more than that. consultancy work is worth paying for. 到目前为止客户对塔塔咨询公司的服务很满意,很可能购买附加值更高、 米尔福德分公司的老板阿马尔娜迦坦言到咨询服务现在只占公司收入的 价格更高的服务。建材生产商欧文斯科宁公司的首席信息官大卫约翰对该 2.6%。 但是它的增长速度相当于公司总收入增速的两倍, , 以大约每年 25 公司赞不绝口;近几年在塔塔咨询公司的消费翻了一番。花旗银行将印度 %的速度增长。如此显著的增长加上高质量的工作的好名声,让客户可以 的业务流程部出售给塔塔咨询公司,并向其保证未来几年每年消费 2.75 确信塔塔咨询服务公司的咨询工作是物有所值的。 亿美元的业务,而且这一数字会逐年上涨。 For the American rivals it is planning to take on, TCS may so far《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 35. The Economist Economist Study Association be no more than a blip on the edge of their radar screens. But as Retailing it pushes up into high-value consulting, several of them—such as 零售业 IBM and HP—are trying to capture more work by moving downstream into TCS’s traditional outsourcing territory. When Spies in your wallet they meet in the middle it could be quite a fight. 相对于它想要赶超的美国本土对手,塔塔公司可能现在不过它们雷达屏幕 钱包里的间谍 边缘上的一个点。然而随着塔塔公司在高附加值咨询业务的进军,很多公 Loyalty cards do not make customers loyal, but retailers 司像 IBM 和惠普也都试图推进塔塔传统的外包下游业务。 当他们同时发展 are devoted to them 到中游业务时,可能会有一场激烈的商业大战。 优惠卡未能绑住顾客心,为何卖场还乐此不疲 A penny for your 翻译者:张燕娜&赵兴昊 thoughts 告诉我你在想什 么 ALTHOUGH they are ofte n called “loyalty” cards, t he rewards cards that ma ny retailers and service c ompanies issue to shoppe rs are not about winning t heir undying allegiance.“T hereal value-added is the data,” explains Rupert D uchesne, the chief execut ive of Aimia, a Canadian f irm which runs Britain’s N ectar card scheme, amon g others. By cleverly usin g the information collecte d when customers’ cards are swiped at checkouts, the companies can offer them well-tar《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 36. The Economist Economist Study Association geted discounts. Even small shifts in buying habits, multiplied b 事实上,从招标 Nectar 的会员公司开始,发行商就一直尽力消除类型重 y very large numbers of customers, can provide a welcome boo 复,但由于成员众多,重复毕竟是难以避免的,比如顾客既可以在 st to profits. Sainsbury’s 也可以在 Laithwaites Wine 买饮料,能在 Expedia 网站也 连锁零售商及服务公司总是喜欢向顾客派发优惠卡,也称忠诚卡,但它的 能在 easyJet 网站上订机票。因此,英国最大连锁超市——乐购以及最大 目的却并不只是绑住顾客的心。 Aimia 公司来自加拿大, 它发行的 Nectar 药妆老店——博姿都选择发行独家会员卡,以确保消费单一性。乐购于 卡在英国非常成功。正如它的首席执行官——鲁伯特·杜谢恩所说,“我们 1995 年开始发行会员卡,如今拥有 1500 万会员用户。 要的增值是数据”。在顾客们结账刷卡后,商家就可第一手得到购物信息, 再加上后期的精确整理,他们能分析出并且有针对性地对顾客提供折扣。 America’s second-largest chemists’ chain, CVS/pharmacy, has 不管购买习惯变化地多么细微,一旦经过无数的顾客的放大,商家都可以 69m signed up to its ExtraCare rewards scheme. Shoppers get 从中得利。 2% off most purchases, plus coupons and other incentives. Da vid Denton, chief financial officer at the retailer’s parent, CVS C Nectar is Britain’s biggest loyalty programme, with 18m subscri aremark, says the scheme is more about holding on to existing bers. Set up in 2002, it has hundreds of member companies, ra customers than attracting new ones. For example, someone w nging from Sainsbury’s, a supermarket chain, to Expedia, an o ho buys baby food might be offered a discount on nappies, enc nline travel portal. Shoppers can spend the “Nectar points” the ouraging her to visit the store again. y earn on everything from food and drink to gadgets and cinem CVS 药妆店,作为美国第二大连锁药妆店,目前已有 6900 万用户参加其 a tickets. 特别呵护返利计划:购物享 988 折扣、优惠券及其他奖励。其母公司 坐拥 1800 万用户的 Nectar 无疑是英国最大的忠诚卡项目。它从 2002 Caremark 首席财务官大卫·丹顿表示,这个项目的推广,与其说是为了吸 年开始发行,目前拥有包括从 Sainsbury’s 连锁超市,到在线旅游门户网 引新顾客,不如说是为了保住回头客。比如,若某人此次买了婴儿食物, 站 Expedia 的数百家会员公司。消费者可以使用积分购买任何东西,比如 下次即可享受纸尿裤的一定折扣,店家以此来吸引顾客继续光临。 食品、饮料、电影票以及各种小玩意。 At first the expense of setting up and running rewards Nectar’s founders tried to avoid overlap but with so many mem programmes meant they were affordable only for the largest bers, some is inevitable: shoppers can use their points to buy d retailers, or groups of retailers. But as IT costs have fallen, such rinks from Sainsbury’s or Laithwaites Wine, and flights from Ex schemes have multiplied, while becoming an ever more central pedia or easyJet. That is why Tesco, Britain’s largest supermar part of retail firms’ marketing strategies, says David Bassuk of ket chain, and Boots, its largest chemist, each set up its own, e AlixPartners, a consultancy. The growth of Aimia (formerly called xclusive loyalty scheme. Tesco’s Clubcard, launched in 1995, n Groupe Aeroplan) into a multinational with annual turnover of ow has 15m members. C$2.2 billion ($2.2 billion) is testament to this. Its operations《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 37. The Economist Economist Study Association now range from Europe to the Middle East, and on October 19th it agreed a joint venture with Tata Group, India’s biggest Such a programme will be a novelty in India. “Retailers’ schem family-run conglomerate, to set up a loyalty scheme there es are still at a very basic stage of sophistication and have very broadly modelled on Nectar. few features and options,” says Rama Bijapurkar, the author o 一开始,建立并运行优惠卡机制需要大量资金投入,因此只有大型或集体 f “Winning in the Indian Market: Understanding the Transforma 零售商能够负担得起。但随着信息技术成本下降,各种优惠卡项目开始如 tion of Consumer India”. Suhel Seth, another marketing pundit, 雨后春笋般不断冒了出来。顾问公司 AlixPartners 全球零售业主管大 says Indians have a healthy scepticism of such loyalty scheme 卫· 巴苏克表示,到了最近几年,优惠卡机制已俨然成了现代零售业市场 s, regarding them as a plot to make them buy things they don’t 营销的重头戏之一。一个很有力的证明就是,Aimia 公司从 Aeroplan 集 want. Tata’s scheme will need to overcome such doubts but su 团发展到今天的跨国公司,年营业额高达 22 亿加元(即美元),涉及业 ch is the trust Indians place in the Tata brand that Mr Seth thin 务之广,西至欧洲,东达中东。上个月 19 日,它又与印度最大家族企业 ks its chances are strong. ——Tata 集团成立了一家合资企业,并希望在印度推广类似 Nectar 的优 在印度,这样的优惠卡机制无疑会是一次革新。拉玛·拜贾珀卡,《在印度 惠卡机制。 市场中取胜:透析印度消费者改革》一书作者表示,现在的零售商销售方 案仍然处于基础阶段,玩不出花样,缺乏特色及多重选择。另一位营销学 The Tata scheme will have to be tailored to India’s fragmented 者,苏赫尔·塞思表示,印度人对优惠卡很排斥,他们认为卖家发行优惠卡 retail market, says Vikas Choudhury of Aimia. Store chains 仅仅想诱惑他们买东西,甚至是根本不需要的东西。Tata 优惠卡计划如果 account for only 6.5% of the $428 billion Indians spend on 想在印度市场拔得头筹,就必须战胜人们的怀疑。对此,赛斯先生还是相 private consumption, which is why even its biggest retailers are 当乐观的,毕竟 Tata 在当地的品牌效应不可小觑。 relatively small. That implies lots of firms will need to take part. To encourage Indian consumers to sign up, Mr Choudhury plans The success of Clubcard and Nectar in Britain seems to have pe to offer them a choice between a straightforward loyalty card, a rsuaded a leading rewards-card sceptic to rethink. Waitrose, an mobile-phone app or a jointly-branded credit card serviced by a upmarket rival to Tesco and Sainsbury’s, used to say loyalty s financial firm. chemes were expensive and intrusive. But on October 25th it st 然而, 来自 Aimia 公司的维卡斯·考霍莱表示, 由于印度零售业现状支离破 arted sending out its new “myWaitrose” card to shoppers on its 碎, Tata 优惠卡计划需要重新调整。 在印度民间消费额的 4280 亿美元中, mailing list (while cheekily claiming that it is “not another loyal 连锁商店收入仅占 6.5%,这就解释了为什么当地最大的零售商规模依然 ty scheme”). 较小。这意味着这一计划推广还需要更多公司的加入。考霍莱先生表示, 乐购会员卡和 Nectar 优惠卡在英国的成功,貌似正在促使优惠卡怀疑论 为了鼓励更多用户注册优惠卡,公司将为顾客们准备两个选择,一是包含 者重新思考。Waitrose 连锁超市,作为乐购及 Sainsbury’s 连锁超市的 手机应用程序的优惠卡服务,二是由某金融公司提供服务的联名信用卡。 强劲对手,过去一直宣称优惠卡昂贵又霸道、实不可取,却在上个月 25《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 38. The Economist Economist Study Association 号开始向顾客邮寄发行“我的 Waitrose 卡”(还厚脸皮地宣称这不是忠实 Indian technology firms 顾客奖励计划)。 印度高科技公司 Still, there remains one notable holdout: Asda, Britain’s third-bi Seeking to avoid a mid-life ggest supermarket chain, once experimented with reward card s but since being bought by Walmart in 1999 it has stuck to its crisis American parent’s credo that a focus on low prices across the b oard makes it unnecessary to lure shoppers with discounts. Tak 探寻避免中期危机之路 ing a stab at its big rival, Asda proclaims: “No Clubcard. No gi India’s most dynamic, but no longer so youthful, industry mmicks. Just lower prices every day”. tries to reinvent itself 众人皆“醉”他独“醒”,英国第三大连锁超市,Asda 公司以前也发行过优惠 制造业虽仍为印度最具活力的生产部门,但已不像从前那么朝气蓬勃。它 卡, 但自从 1999 年被沃尔玛收购后, 它就一直坚持着美国老总的信条—— 正试图彻底自我改造 再优惠的折扣,也挡不住低价对顾客的绝对吸引力。Asda 公司表明,我们 不发会员卡,也不搞花样,就保证每天都低价。这足够战胜对手,保持优 势了。 翻译者:张萌萌&马彦天 INDIA’S technology firms are no longer spring chickens. Infosys had its 30th birthday this year and its lead founder retired, hailed as a visionary by his colleagues and celebrated as the man who《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 39. The Economist Economist Study Association kick-started the country’s first world-class industry. Yet judged by their share prices of late, the three big firms, TCS, Infosys and Regarding the slump in Wipro, are still giddy, uncertain things. Last month TCS’s shares, rich economies, the recent which had swaggered earlier in the year, slumped as it posted past does offer a chilly disappointing quarterly figures. Wipro’s shares are well down on precedent. During the Wall the year and this week’s news of quarterly profits little changed Street crisis in mid-2009 from a year ago sent them a bit lower still. the IT firms’ revenue 印度的高新技术企业已经不再是刚出茅庐的小孩了。 Infosys 已经成立 30 growth slowed almost to 年了,该企业的主要创始人也将于今年退休,他一直被他身边的同事尊称 zero as customers, 为一位具有远见卓识的人,同时他也是让印度的高新技术产业位居世界领 especially financial ones, 先水平的推动者。 但目前从印度的三大领军型企业, TCS, Infosy 和 Wipro slashed spending. But 近期的股价来看,它们的前景却仍不十分明朗。在 TCS 公布了本季度令人 activity bounced back 失望的业绩报告后,其股价一反今年早些时候大涨的趋势,一路走低。 smartly (see chart) as Wipro 的股票今年表现良好, 但是本周最新公布的 Wipro 本季度利润同比 clients recovered their 去年有所变化这一状况让它的股价还是略有下跌。 nerve and redoubled efforts to cut costs through outsourcing and reorganising their back offices. The volatility partly reflects investors’ fears of a depression in the 回顾那些发达经济体的萧条期,刚刚过去的几件事情的确为我们提供了了 rich world, where the three make the bulk of their money. But it 一些惨痛的先例。在 2009 年中期华尔街金融危机期间,,由于它们的债 is also a symptom of mild paranoia about whether these firms 权人,尤其是一些金融机构大幅的削减开支,使得 IT 公司的收入增长几近 can in their dotage still deliver perky growth. The worry is that 为零。但是在这些公司鼓起勇气,通过外包业务以及重组机构家被削减花 they might go the way of Nokia: for years the Finnish handset 销,IT 公司的业绩又有力的回升了。 firm maintained high margins, in defiance of its many doubters. Then, suddenly, the naysayers were proved right. Today the hope is that customers will be less panicky. All of the 这种反复无常的波动很大程度上反映了投资者对欧美国家经济萧条的恐惧 big three insist there has been no sudden slowdown in spending 心理,因为这三家公司的许多利润份额来自于欧美等发达国家。而这种担 and are continuing their colossal hiring programmes in India 心也表明投资者希望知道这三家公司是否能够在他们的大客户受难的时候 (together they now employ almost half a million people, almost 依旧保持稳定发展。也有人担心他们会走上诺基亚的老路:几年前芬兰的 all in their home country). Natarajan Chandrasekaran, TCS’s 手机公司保持着高额的利润,对于质疑者的声音不管不顾,结果突然之间, chief executive, has visited more than 100 customers worldwide 事实又证明那些唱反调的人说的是对的。 in the past three months and says they are resolute. “They are《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 40. The Economist Economist Study Association going about their business in a systematic way. They realise the 印度的公司,各大银行紧随其后;西部的公共机构也可能会成为印度公司 situation in the US and Europe is going to take time to sort out.” 下一批合作者。俄亥俄州内的医院院长可能对印度的诊断结果不感兴趣, 现在 IT 公司最大的希望就是他们的客户减少恐慌。 这三大领军企业都宣称 但是那些孟买的精明者会这么做。同样,印度的外包行业应该会从它的老 他们不会大幅的削减开支,并且会继续在印度开展大规模的招聘计划(这 客户—富裕的欧美国家转向南欧,日本和一些新兴市场。印度的 IT 行业组 三家公司共有将近 50 万员工,且绝大多数员工来自于印度本土)。在过 织 NASSCOM,预测印度 IT 行业的潜在市场总份额将会在 2008 年与 去的三个月里,TCS 的 CEO Natarajan Chandrasekaran 已经拜访了 2020 年间增加三倍。 该公司在世界各地的将近 100 家客户,并表示他们的态度非常坚定,他说 “他们要继续通过系统化的方法对自己的业务进行进一步完善, 他们也意识 There have long been questions about whether the three firms 到美国与欧洲的问题并不是一朝一夕就能解决了的。” are becoming unmanageably big. Yet so far they have doubled in size every few years without exhausting the supply of passable But even if “Financial Armageddon: The Sequel” does not happen, warm bodies from India’s lousy education system. Even so, large what about the industry’s long-term growth potential? “I don’t numbers may catch up with them in other ways. Nimish Joshi, an think it is over by a long stretch,” says K.V. Kamath, the IT analyst at CLSA, a broker, says their biggest clients are chairman of Infosys. “Indian IT is just starting to come of age.” themselves approaching the limits to growth. Citigroup is Optimists point to a steady widening of the boundaries of thought to fork out $350m-400m to TCS a year: is it really going outsourcing and argue it will continue. Pioneers such as General to increase that at 20% a year? Electric turned to India’s firms first, followed by the banks; the 一直有人在质疑这三家公司是否能够有效的管理不断壮大的企业。然而从 public sector in the West may be next. Hospital bosses in Ohio 目前来看,这三家公司每过几年其规模就会翻一番,同时还在不断吸纳从 may not yet be thinking about running their diagnostic-test 印度落后的教育体制中走出的人才。即使如此,还是有大批的人才以其他 results from India, but clever people in Mumbai are. Likewise the 方式满足他们的要求。Nimish Joshi 是一位在 CLSA 工作的 IT 分析师, habit of outsourcing should expand further from its core 也是一位经纪人,他说目前他们最大的客户就是他们自己,他们正在逐渐 geography of rich English-speaking countries to places like 接近增长的极限。据传花旗集团准备削减每年支付给 TCS 的 3.5.亿到 4 southern Europe, Japan and emerging markets. India’s 亿美元,原因是 TCS 真的可以一年增长 20%吗? IT-industry body, NASSCOM, reckons the total potential market will triple between 2008 and 2020. The Indian firms have survived the decline of clients before: BT 但即使“金融末日”这个最坏的结局还未到来,那么整个产业的长期潜在增 Group, a British phone company that used to be a big customer, 长又何去何从呢?Infosys 的主席 K.V.Kamath 说:“我觉得它不会随着 is now but a shadow of its former self. Still, it is likely that the 时间而消失,印度的 IT 产业才刚刚起步”。乐观者指出外包所涉及的领域 biggest spenders—the top ten customers typically account for 在稳步拓展, GE 而且这种趋势会继续下去。 等公司已经率先将注意力转向 20-25% of each IT firm’s sales—will grow more slowly than the《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 41. The Economist Economist Study Association rest, bringing down overall growth. The law of large numbers; the sense that big clients may have 印度的公司曾经经历过因客户数量的减少而带来的危机: 集团是英国的 BT matured; the political limits of outsourcing; not to mention wage 一家电话公司,也曾是印度 IT 公司的大客户,但是现在该公司却早已不复 pressures in India. All these explain a second pillar of Indian IT 存在。虽然如此,那些占有 IT 公司销售额 20%—25%的大客户如果增长 firms’ strategy: to go beyond exploiting lower labour costs back 速度慢于行业中的其他公司,那么这将会放慢整个行业的发展。 home and become creators of intellectual property and purveyors of consultancy. There is a second consideration: that high unemployment and 大数定律,大客户的观念逐渐成熟,政府对外包行业的限制,更不用说在 economic distress in the rich world may impose political limits to 印度面临的工资压力, 所有的这些现象都说明了印度 IT 公司经营策略的另 outsourcing there. In an interview in May, S. Gopalakrishnan, 一支柱:不再追求低廉的劳动力成本,而是在技术上有所突破创新,并且 one of Infosys’s top brass, noted that the boom in labour mobility 提供资讯与顾问服务。 over the past 30 years had coincided with strong growth. Now, at a time of stagnation in the West, worries about a backlash were The industry has evolved before. It began in the 1990s simply “not going to go away”. Since his prescient comments, the Indian maintaining software and systems designed and owned by IT firms have found it harder to get visas to send staff out to others. Then came the Y2K bug, in which Indian firms helped America to liaise with clients on big projects there. One firm says save the world from the disaster-that-never-quite-was, boosting the rejection rate for its visa applications has doubled, to 40%. their profile. For the past five years the quest has been to evolve Political pressure over unemployment is surely a factor. again, beyond just competing on price. The latest, slightly woolly, 从另一方面来说,欧美国家的高失业率以及经济增长的压力可能会导致政 incarnation of this is to offer “solutions”; a package of services, 府部门对外包行业有所限制。Infosy 的一名高管 S. Gopalakrishnan 在 sold on a continuing basis for fancy prices, ranging from the 五月份接受采访时说到,在过去 30 年间劳动力流动性的不断提高恰好满 design and operation of software applications to advising 足了经济强劲的增长,但是现在,由于西方各国的经济处于停滞期,他担 customers on restructuring their businesses. 心原有的模式可能不会继续持续下去。在 S. Gopalakrishnan 这段富有 印度的 IT 行业从很早之前就开始不断发展。20 世纪 90 年代 IT 行业刚刚 先见之明的评论之后, 印度 IT 公司发现要想为那些去美国和一些大项目的 起步的时候,印度的公司只是一直在使用由其他公司开发设计的软件和系 客户保持联络的员工取得护照变得非常困难。一家公司说拒签率与往年相 统,当千年虫病毒袭来的时候,印度的 IT 公司第一次在危机中拯救了整个 比翻了一番, 已经上涨到 40%, 政府部门在失业率上的压力是影响外包行 世界,这也极大地振兴了印度的 IT 行业。在过去的五年中,印度一直在寻 业的一个重要因素。 求用价格竞争以外的方法来再次促进 IT 业发展, 而目前这个特殊的时期却 为印度提供了解决问题的办法:将 IT 公司的服务打包,然后用一个合理的 More than just cheap 价格将服务包不断卖出去, 其服务的方式包括软件应用程序的设计及运行, 不仅仅便宜 以及为客户提供业务重组的建议。《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 42. The Economist Economist Study Association and thus creating local loyalty. India’s IT firms are now following Using a narrow definition, such high-end activity probably their footsteps, as our next article explores. accounts for less than a tenth of revenues today, says Noshir 为了能够步入全球 IT 服务业的顶尖行列, 印度的三巨头可能会从欧美国家 Kaka of McKinsey & Company, a consulting firm. Western firms 雇佣更多的员工。这一方面是由于印度掌握高新技术的人较少,另一方面 such as IBM and Accenture can be sniffy about their Indian rivals’ 是因为某些项目需要公司员工亲自到场,尤其在咨询业方面。日本的汽车 sophistication. Yet customers seem to be getting more 制造商一直无法打开美国市场,直到他们改变投入美国市场的产品,雇佣 promiscuous about whom they buy their “solutions” from: 了美国本土员工,才赢得了美国本土的顾客。印度的 IT 公司正在紧随他们 witness the rise of salesforce.com, a web-based, off-the-shelf 的脚步。 product that helps companies manage their sales staff. This suggests that barriers to entry have fallen. The three Indian 译者:张崇浚&尹茜 firms certainly hope so, and are throwing resources at muscling into higher-value services. If they get the formula right, their sales from this line of business “could go up fast”, says Mr Kaka. 麦肯锡咨询公司的 Noshir Kaka 说,更具体的来说,目前 IT 公司收入中 不到十分之一的份额都来自于这种高端的服务。西方的一些大牌公司如 IBM 和 Accenture 可能对印度 IT 公司的这种“大杂烩”式的服务不屑一顾, 然而现在许多客户并不在意自己可以从谁那里得到解决问题的方法,一家 名为 salesforce.com 的网站的发展证实了这一点,该公司利用现货产品 管理他们的销售员工,这意味着行业进入壁垒正在一步步降低。而印度的 这三家大公司正希望如此,他们将大量的资源投入到更高价值的服务中, Kaka 先生说,如果他们的这种思路是正确的话,那么这几家公司在这项 服务上的收入将会在短时间内大幅提高。 To make the leap into the top league of global IT services, India’s three giants may have to hire many more people in rich countries. That is partly because the required skills are scarce in India, and partly because a physical presence is needed for some tasks, especially in consulting. Japan’s carmakers were pilloried in America until they shifted some production there, hiring locals《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 43. The Economist Economist Study Association China’s financial regulators bureaucrat who most recently served as the chief securities 中国金融监管者 regulator. His widely applauded reforms allowed illiquid shares of state-owned enterprises to be traded, as well as the introduction All change of index futures and margin trading. But Alicia Garcia-Herrero of BBVA, a Spanish bank, argues that he moved too slowly on 大换血 bond-market reforms and fears that “this reduces the likelihood The main supervisory agencies get a new set of bosses of interest-rate liberalisation and further opening up of the 主要监管机构迎来一批新主管 capital account any time soon.” Nov 5th 2011 | from the print edition 最重要的工作,中国银监会(CBRC)主席一职,由尚福林(上图)出任。 Facing a tough task 之前这位谨慎的官员曾担任证监会主席。他颇受好评的改革包括允许缺乏 任务艰巨 流动性的央企股票交易,及引入股指期货和保证金交易。不过西班牙对外 THE grey men at the top of 银行的艾西亚认为他的债券市场改革过于缓慢并担心“这降低了短期内实 China’s main 现利率自由化和进一步开放资本账户的可能性。” financial-regulatory agencies do not change Mr Shang’s former job running the China Securities Regulatory often. So the appointment Commission goes to Guo Shuqing, who until recently was of new bosses to the chairman of China Construction Bank, a giant state-controlled agencies supervising the bank. A fluent English speaker who spent time at Oxford, he is banking, securities and outspoken and seems market-minded: “If you don’t take any risk insurance industries has how can you make any money?” he asked in an interview with created a splash. Reuters last year. 通常来说中国主要的金融监管 尚福林以前的职务—证监会主席—由郭树清继任。郭在此之前担任中国建 机构主管们很少发生人事变 设银行(一家巨型国家控股银行)董事长。作为一个曾在牛津大学访问研 动。所以这回银行、证券和保 究,说着一口流利英语的演讲者,他语言坦率,看起来很有市场观念。“如 险监管机构同时任命新主管造 果你一点风险都不愿承担, 你又怎样能赚钱?”在去年路透社一个采访中他 成了不小的轰动。 这样说道。 The most important job, that atop the China Banking Regulatory Xiang Junbo, the former boss of the Agricultural Bank of China Commission (CBRC), goes to Shang Fulin (pictured), a careful (ABC), another government-run banking goliath, is the new《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 44. The Economist Economist Study Association insurance regulator. He made his mark with the dual listing of 不良贷款(%总额) 未偿付贷款(万亿元) ABC shares last year in Hong Kong and Shanghai, which at $22 billion was then the biggest public placement ever. 项俊波,农业银行(另一个政府经营的巨型银行)前任董事长,成为了新 任保监会主席。去年农行在港交所和上交所的双重上市让他名声大噪,该 上市融资规模高达220亿美元,迄今为止是史上最大的公开发行。 The trio have a tough task ahead. They must overcome meddling from above as well as crises brewing below. Zhao Xinge of the China Europe International Business School observes that “CBRC clearly does not have total control in how the banks should be regulated.” He points to fresh demands from the country’s leaders that banks be “more tolerant” of bad loans made to small and medium enterprises, which, he quips, are “too many to fail”. 三位主帅都面临着一个艰难的任务。他们上要面对干预下要克服酝酿中的 危机。 中欧国际工商学院的赵欣舸教授认为“银监会在银行监管采取何种方 The snag is that these profits may be built on a mountain of bad 式上显然没有绝对的控制权。 ”他提到国家领导人最近要求银行对中小企业 debt. Few analysts believe the government’s rosy figures on 贷款坏账“多些容忍”,同时调侃这些中小企业“多得难以倒闭”。 non-performing loans, given the lending binge that the big banks went on as part of China’s official stimulus policy (see chart). One That hints at another sort of trouble for Mr Shang and his concern is that the property bubble will burst. Another is the colleagues. Ostensibly, China’s banks are in good health. Several meltdown of the informal lending sector, which Credit Suisse publicly-listed state-controlled banks unveiled impressive estimates may be worth 4 trillion yuan ($629 billion). third-quarter profits: Bank of China’s quarterly profits rose by 问题在于这些利润可能建立在堆积如山的坏账上。考虑到中国官方刺激政 9% from a year ago, ABC saw a rise of 40% and China CITIC 策引起的贷款过热,几乎没有分析人士相信政府在不良贷款上的漂亮数据 posted a 41% increase. (见图表) 。一方面的担忧是房地产泡沫的破裂,另一方面则是非官方贷款 对于尚福林和他的同事而言这暗示了另一系列问题。表面上中国的银行财 部门的垮塌(据瑞士信贷估计大概高达4万亿人民币,合6290亿美元) 。 务状况良好。 数个已上市的国家控股银行第三季度的报表都令人印象深刻: 中国银行的季度利润相较于去年同期上升9%,农业银行和中国国际信托 The main worry, however, is local-government debt. This week 投资公司则分别公布40%和41%的增长。 the CBRC hinted for the first time that it may allow the special《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 45. The Economist Economist Study Association investment vehicles holding most of this debt to delay loan Economics focus payments. That would help ease an immediate crunch—but it 经济焦点 would also further muddy the banks’ accounts and delay a proper clean-up of balance-sheets. Unless Mr Shang and his colleagues Pulling for the home team prove exceptionally deft, investors will be in for a rocky ride. 最大的隐患则是地方政府债。这周银监会首次表示或将允许持有这类债务 向主队靠拢 的特殊投资工具延期支付贷款。此举可以缓解迫在眉睫的紧缩—不过也会 Central-bank lending to government serves a valuable, 使银行的账户更加混乱并导致资产负债表发布延期。除非尚福林和他的同 though risky, purpose 事能展现出不同寻常的智慧, 否则投资者们面临的会是一条充满崎岖的路。 央行向政府贷款虽有风险,但效果显著 Nov 5th 2011 | from the print edition from the print edition | Finance and economics 译者:陈默 IT CANNOT be pleasant to start a new job with a continent’s fate resting on your shoulders. On November 1st, Mario Draghi’s first day as president of the European Central Bank (ECB), peripheral-government bond yields shot up and stockmarkets sank on fears that Greeks might reject a rescue plan agreed days earlier. 假如让你整个大陆的命运的责任开始一项新的工作,恐怕你的脸色一定很 差。11月1日,马里奥吉上任欧洲中央银行主席的第一天,国外债券收益 率极速上升而股票市场反走下跌趋势。因为大家担心希腊可能会拒绝几天 前达成的救援计划。 On November 3rd, as The Economist went to press, Mr Draghi was presiding over his first policy meeting. Much is riding on what the ECB decides then and in coming weeks because it alone currently has the means to stem the intensifying crisis. It has bought Greek, Portuguese and Irish debt; since early August, it has also purchased Spanish and Italian bonds. But its purchases have been intermittent and begrudging. Without a firm《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 46. The Economist Economist Study Association commitment to buy as much as needed to prevent yields on government, especially in wartime. The Bank of England Italian and Spanish bonds rising so high that both countries suspended the convertibility of its notes to gold from 1797 to become insolvent, investors have less incentive to return. 1821 to enable it to better finance Britain’s wars with France. In 在11月3日, 《经济学人》 出版后, 马里奥先生主持了他的第一次政策会议。 the 1930s the Bank of Japan was compelled to buy the 从那时起一直到接下来的几周,欧洲央行的决定集万千关注与一身。因为 government’s bonds, and from 1942 to 1951 the Federal Reserve 目前只有它才能组织持续增强的危机。它已经购买了希腊、葡萄牙、爱尔 agreed, at the Treasury’s request, to hold Treasury yields to 兰的债务。从八月份初,它也购买了西班牙和意大利的国债。但这种购买 2.5% or below. 这能限于持续性的,同时也是不情愿的。目前需要购买足够多的债券以防 央行经常作为其政府的代理人:他们承担付款,支付政府支出,拍卖及赎 止意大利和西班牙两国国债收益率持续走高以致两国无法偿债。而如果不 回政府债券,为了执行货币政策大多数央行还需要购买和出售国债。有时 给投资者强加这种购买义务,他们是没有动力去购买国债的。 他们这样做的目的是为了给予政府财政上的支持,尤其在战争爆发时期。 英格兰银行在1797年至1821年暂停纸币与黄金之间的自由兑换,就是为 The ECB’s reluctance to make such a commitment is 了更好的从财政上支持英国同法国作战。在20世纪30年代,日本银行被迫 understandable: its legal mandate and doctrinal persuasion bar it 购买国债。从1942年到1951年,美联储同意在满足财政部的要求持有美 from directly supporting governments. Yet throughout history 国国债,而收益率在2.5%以下。 central banks have been lenders of last resort to their governments. In 1694 the English monarchy was broke and in The risks are obvious: bond purchases expand the money supply, need of a loan so that it could wage war with France. A group of potentially leading to inflation. Virtually all hyperinflations begin financiers agreed to lend the crown £1.2m in return for a partial with such monetisation of budget deficits, including Germany’s in monopoly on the issue of currency. Thus was born the Bank of 1920-24, which explains the Bundesbank’s, and now the ECB’s, England. reluctance to lend to governments. 欧洲央行不愿履行这种责任是可以理解的。他的法令和政治规定使其不能 风险是显而易见的,国债的购买扩大了货币供给,无形中导致了通货膨胀, 直接援助政府。纵观历史,向央行借款已经成为政府最后的手段。1694 很明显,几乎所有的超级通胀都是以财政赤字而发行货币为源头,包括德 年,英国君主制破裂,而需要一笔资金和法国开战。许多金融资本家同意 国1920年至1924年,这也是西德银行——现今的欧洲央行不愿意借钱给 借钱给王室,但要求掌握战争资金的部分垄断权。由此英格兰银行诞生。 政府的原因。 Central banks routinely serve as their government’s agent: they The mere possibility of inflation can force governments with accept payments, disburse outlays, auction and redeem their weak central banks to pay punitive interest rates. But as Chris bonds. Most buy and sell government bonds to carry out Sims of Princeton University, who shared this year’s Nobel prize monetary policy. At times they have done so to finance for economics, notes in a recent presentation, there is another《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 47. The Economist Economist Study Association side to the story. Bonds of a country with its own central bank are simply a promise to repay one government obligation (ie, debt) with another (ie, currency). The owner of such a bond is confident he can always sell or redeem it, and thus does not demand a higher yield to compensate for counterparty risk. 通货膨胀还是很少发生,但一旦发生,政府和央行就不得不接受惩罚去支 付高利率。但普林斯顿大学的克里斯斯姆斯——今年经济学诺贝尔奖获得 者称,在目前的状况,可能会存在另一方面的负面影响,一个国家的国债 只是一国政府用现金偿还其责任的一种承诺,国债的拥有者相信她总能卖 出或买回它,因此就无需更高的收益率去补偿相应的风险。 A country that gives up its monetary sovereignty by dollarising or adopting the euro may gain greater credibility on inflation but may have to pay more to compensate investors for counterparty Spain’s yield around 5.5%. One reason is that Britain can still risk. This may seem like a good idea when counterparty risk is devalue to boost growth; Spain can’t. Another is that it has a low, but that can change abruptly and dramatically. Mr Sims, in a lender of last resort; Spain doesn’t. Paul De Grauwe of the 2002 paper, says the option of using inflation to repay debt is a University of Leuven says that if Britain couldn’t roll over its debt valuable fiscal-shock absorber that over time may be less at acceptable interest rates, it could ultimately force the Bank of expensive than the risk, or fact, of default. England to buy it. “This means that investors cannot precipitate a 一个国家通过将美元作为货币或接受欧元而放弃自身的货币自主权可能在 liquidity crisis in the UK that could force the UK government into 抵制通胀上回获得更高的信誉。但同时可能会支付更高利率来补偿投资者 default.” 相应的风险。当风险很低时,这的确不错。但也可能发生戏剧般天翻地覆 通过对比英国和西班牙我们可以很清楚的看到这点,基于债务、赤字、和 的转变。斯姆斯先生在2002年的一篇文章中指出,选择用通货膨胀来偿还 通胀,英国信誉风险应更大,但英国债券收益在 2.3%而西班牙的高达 债务可能是一项解决财政赤字高效率的手段,一段时间后,政府不得不支 5.5%。其中的一个原因是英国仍然可以用货币贬值来促进经济增长;但 付比对应风险更高的利率,事实上这时候就会发生违约。 西班牙不可以。另一个原因是英国有最后的救命稻草,而西班牙没有。勒 文大学的 Paul De Grauwe 表示,如果英国不能以一个可以接受的利率 This can be seen starkly by comparing Britain with Spain (see 支付它的债务,它可以迫使英格兰银行购买它的债券,“这意味着投资者无 chart). Based on debts, deficits and inflation, Britain should be 法促使流动性危机在英国的发生,这种危机会使英国政府违约"。 the riskier credit. But British bonds yield around 2.3% whereas《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 48. The Economist Economist Study Association No central bank wants to be put in that position, of course, and 府直接购买债券,但允许其在二级市场购买。欧洲央行认为它购买债券只 institutional arrangements have sprung up to prevent it. The 是为了确保它的货币政策通过利率来传导。 most common is to require that bonds be purchased only at market prices. The Federal Reserve is prohibited from buying How could the ECB be enticed into becoming lender of last resort? bonds directly from the government, except to roll over a Mr Sims says the ECB needs to be reassured its own maturing issue in its portfolio. It can buy bonds on the secondary balance-sheet has sound fiscal backing. That is because it may market, which is how it enforced the yield ceiling during the deplete its capital by selling assets at a loss or paying interest on second world war, but its accord with the Treasury in 1951 ended reserves to prevent bond purchases from fuelling inflation. He that obligation. The Bank of Japan can buy bonds on the suggests empowering the European Financial Stability Facility, secondary market, but not directly from the government unless Europe’s bail-out fund, both to issue euro-denominated bonds the Japanese Parliament votes to require it. The Chilean central (backed by a euro-zone-wide tax) which the ECB could buy bank may not buy government securities while Israel, Argentina, during open-market operations, and to recapitalise the ECB if Canada and South Korea impose limits on how much the central needed. bank may purchase. 欧洲央行是如何被引诱成为政府的最后的救命稻草的?斯姆斯称欧洲央行 没有央行希望陷入那种境地,当然一些政策已经出来防微杜渐。最常见的 需要一再保证它的决算表具有财政支持作用。为了防止债券购买造成的通 就是规定国债只能以市场利率购买。美联储被禁止从政府直接购买债券, 胀,美联储低价出售资产或者支付利息储备?。而这样做的后果可能会耗 除非将投资组合中即将到期的债券转换为国债。 但它可以从二级市场购买, 尽它的资金。他建议授权给欧洲金融稳定机构,欧洲的纾困基金这两个组 这项规定在二战时期控制了债券收益率的上限, 但1951年美联储和财政部 织发行一种“欧洲区”债券(以欧洲)的权力,欧洲银行能够在开放市场中 达成一致停止了这项责任。日本银行能够从二级市场购买债券,除非日本 购买这种债券,同时如果需要还可以利用该债券调整央行的资金结构。 国会投票通过否则将禁止日本银行从政府直接购买债券,智力银行可能不 会购买政府债券而以色列、阿根廷、加拿大及韩国会对央行购买国债的数 But the ECB may not have time to await such arrangements. 量加以限制。 Brad DeLong of the University of California, Berkeley, notes that central banks have taken liberties with their mandates when The European Union’s Maastricht treaty is in keeping with these financial stability was at stake. The Bank of England lent arrangements: it prohibits the ECB from buying bonds directly aggressively during the financial crisis of 1825-26, for example, from member governments, but not from buying them on the despite lacking the legal authority. Sir Robert Peel, First Lord of secondary market. The ECB claims it buys only to ensure its the Treasury, later said: “If it be necessary to assume a grave monetary policy is transmitted to interest rates. responsibility, I dare say men will be willing to assume such a 欧盟的马斯赫里赫特条约正与这些政策同步:它禁止欧洲央行从成员国政 responsibility.” Whether Mr Draghi does so may determine the《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 49. The Economist Economist Study Association euro’s fate. MF Global’s bankruptcy 但是欧洲央行没有时间等待这些政策。加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校的布拉 明富环球破产 德德隆认为, 当财政稳定受到威胁时,央行在制定政策是拥有自由权,1825 年至1826年经济危机期间,尽管英格兰银行没有被授权,却仍然在疯狂的 Broke broker 借款给政府。罗伯特皮尔,财政部首任大臣,曾说:“如果有必要承担一种 强制的责任,我敢说人们还是愿意去承担的”。马里奥吉的 选择可能决定 落幕掮客 了欧盟未来的命运。 An old hand on Wall Street is crushed by a bet on Europe 华尔街老手折戟欧债 from the print edition | Finance and economics 译者:许青 No sympathy for the fallen 别同情它的遭遇 THE euro-zone crisis had already brought Dexia, a Franco-Belgian lender, low. This week it claimed its first American scalp. On October 31st, in the biggest collapse of a financial firm since that of Lehman Brothers in 2008, MF Global went bankrupt. Courts in more than half a dozen jurisdictions《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 50. The Economist Economist Study Association will be pressed to sort out billions of dollars in claims. 邦储备银行将其吸收为“一级交易商”成员(注:主要指直接处理联邦储备 Investigators are reportedly searching for hundreds of millions 银行公债的 36 家大交易商) 这些资产负债表上的风险被看做是有益的, , of dollars in missing client funds. 因为它们弥补了其在帮顾客交易这一传统业务上的衰退。 欧债危机已搞垮了法国、比利时合资的德克夏银行,这周又将第一家美国 经纪行拖下水。 10 月 31 日明富环球(MF Global)宣布破产,这是自 Mr Corzine’s stock rose, too. His position as a conduit between 2008 年雷曼兄弟垮台以来的最大一起金融公司破产案。有近六个以上司 Wall Street and Washington, DC made the prospect of his 法管辖区的法院,将着手处理这亿万美元索赔。据悉,调查人员正搜寻客 becoming treasury secretary likely enough—and painful 户资金中流失的成千上万美元。 enough—that a special provision was included in MF’s August bond issues providing a higher payout if Mr Corzine left for that MF’s demise comes less than two years after it was intentionally office. transformed from a dull institutional broker to an ambitious 寇辛个人身价也直线上升。他的职务使得他自如游弋于华尔街和华盛顿, investment bank by its new chief executive, Jon Corzine. A 外界普遍猜测他将接任财政部长,但这也给 MF 带来了不少麻烦,它在发 veteran of Goldman Sachs, which he left in 1999 after a palace 行八月份债券时,被要求纳入一特殊条款,规定一旦寇辛离职,公司将支 coup, Mr. Corzine turned to politics, winning campaigns to be 付更高费用。 first a Democratic senator and then governor of New Jersey before being dumped for failing to get to grips with the state’s It is too soon for a definitive autopsy on MF, but excessive dire finances. leverage and proprietary bets were clearly to blame. The largest 不到两年前,MF 在新任首席执行官乔恩·寇辛(Jon Corzine)带领下, of these was a leveraged punt on the bonds of peripheral 将角色从效率低下的体制经纪人转向雄心勃勃的投资银行。 寇辛曾任高盛 euro-zone governments, notably Spain and Italy, exceeding $6 集团总裁,1999 年因高层政变离任,之后投向政界,先是成为民主党参 billion. In theory, these bets promised large profits at little risk: 议员,后又成功竞选新泽西州州长,终因处理该州迟滞经济不力而下台。 MF Global revealed the basic components of its European bet in May, prompting no evident concern in markets. After Mr Corzine took charge of MF Global, its star initially 现在判定肢解 MF 为时尚早,但其过度杠杆交易和自营交易难逃罪责。 其 burned bright. In February the New York Federal Reserve Bank 中最大一桩就是它几乎豪赌的大肆购买欧洲边缘国家, 尤其是西班牙和意 admitted the firm into a select club of “primary dealers” in 大利的债券,超过近 60 亿美元。理论上讲,这些赌注也许险少利多,明 government debt. The risks that it was taking with its own 富环球五月份时曾披露其欧债购买量的分布,但并未明显引发市场担忧。 balance-sheet were seen as offsetting a slowdown in its traditional businesses of helping clients make trades. The first serious cracks emerged in September when America’s 寇辛接管明富全球以来,MF 如一颗商界新星冉冉升起。二月份,纽约联 Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, a now-autonomous《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 51. The Economist Economist Study Association agency once tied to the major exchanges, told MF to put up 中,我们却发现,MF 超过 400 亿美元的资产,居然只有不到 10 亿美元 more capital. On October 24th Moody’s, a ratings agency, 抵押资产的净值支撑,这样的杠杆比例实在令人惊异。如此行事的金融公 downgraded the firm, citing its capital and operating 司居然能成为纽联储的合作伙伴,甚至是“一级交易商”,那么纽联储的审 environment. The next day MF disclosed a quarterly loss. 查能力真是可见一斑了。 美国金融业监管局在 9 月份的时候告知 MF,要求它提供更多资本保证, 引发公司第一次大震荡。美国金融业监管局曾经挂靠数家大型交易所, 而 Sorting out creditors’ claims will not be easy. Firms listed on the 今已转变自治机构。10 月 24 日,评级机构穆迪公司,援引 MF 的资本 bankruptcy-petition say numbers are either misleading or 和运营环境为证,调低了它的级别。隔日,MF 市值损失四分之一。 wrong. In its frantic final days, MF drew down its credit lines, leaving many banks exposed. They, at least, should be first in A rout ensued. By the end of the week banks and exchanges had line among the pre-bankruptcy creditors to be paid. Also among stopped doing business directly with MF. There was little doubt the creditors are several of the most prominent New York law but that an agreement to sell or shore up the firm had to be firms. Competitors have been hired to work through the mess. reached over the weekend. Prospects of a deal, however, 理清债权人账目并不容易。被列入破产呈请书上的那些公司声称,账目不 disappeared when more than $700m of customer funds could 是有误导性就是整个错误的。 MF 最混乱的末日里, 划低了它的信用额度, not be found. 从而揽进来了更多银行受到牵连。这些银行至少可以作为破产前债权人, 大溃败继踵而至。截至该周末,各大银行和交易所停止与 MF 的直接业务 得到优先赔付。在这些债权人中,也有几家纽约顶尖的法律公司。这样的 往来。市面传言在周末有可能达成某协议,出售或承托该公司。不过当披 复杂情势下,法院不得不引进其原先竞争者帮忙。 露 MF 公司有近 7 亿多美元的客户资金不见时, 这一传言成真的希望已是 渺茫。 Whether any part of MF survives is questionable. Good employees will be poached. The protection from creditors Numerous lessons will be drawn from MF’s collapse. In its afforded by the court means there needn’t be an outright dump bankruptcy filing, it revealed that it had less than $1 billion in of assets but very few securities firms ever rebound from equity supporting more than $40 billion in assets, a staggering bankruptcy. Some, such as Lehman, have had operating level of leverage in an era when financial firms were meant to be segments bought. Others, such as Drexel Burnham, were ratcheting down risk. That a primary dealer could be so liquidated. MF is too small to be a test of the government’s leveraged may well prompt questions about the New York Fed’s ability to handle the failure of a financial titan. But a quick death scrutiny of firms it routinely deals with. would set a pleasing post-Lehman precedent. 从 MF 的败局中,我们可以得到不少教训。在这个机遇与风险相同的金融 是否保留 MF 个别部门,目前尚为未知。优秀员工也许会被挖走。法院会 时代时代,金融公司所应该做的是着力降低风险。然而在 MF 的破产申请 提供债权人保护,所以并不需要立刻清算资产,极少数证券公司也许在破《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 52. The Economist Economist Study Association 产后还能重振雄风。例如雷曼公司,就回收了操盘部门,另外的如德崇证 Climate finance 券也已经清偿。 别指望政府——他们要应付的是那些金融巨头的崩溃和破 气候金融 产,MF 实在还排不上号。但是果断让它迅速的完结,为后雷曼时代的金 融运作树起了一个很好的榜样。 He who pays the paupers… 翻译者:汤永永&马彦天 谁家富贵济苍生 Who will foot the bill for green development in poor countries? 试问谁来为穷国的绿色发展买单? Sunshine and leverage 阳光与太阳能 AMID the wreckage of the 2009Copenhagen climate summit, an agreement that rich countries would, by 2020, furnish developing ones with $100 billion a year to help them mitigate and adapt to global warming looked like a rare achievement. This commitment《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 53. The Economist Economist Study Association will also be a big talking point at the next annual UN summit, due countries, mostly from private lenders in rich countries. They to start in Durban on November 28th. With almost no hope of a contributed around $55 billion, with another $39 billion drawn big new pact, many expect progress on the formation of a global from public budgets and capital markets by multilateral and Green Climate Fund to be one of its few successes. Yet there is bilateral development banks. Western taxpayers provided at least huge uncertainty about how developed countries will deliver on $21 billion of the latter amount. Less than $3 billion flowed from their promise, including what role the fund will play. Western carbon markets (to offset emissions) and as philanthropy 2009 年哥本哈根气候峰会的成果寥寥无几,于是,其中一项协议更显得弥 (see chart). 足珍贵: 各国议定 2020 年前, 发达国家向发展中国家每年援助 1 千亿美元, 好消息就是, 已经有数额惊人的资金流向了气候金融——这是对温室气体减 专门用于减少温室气体排放及应对全球变暖等问题。 新一届的联合国年度峰 排及全球变暖解决方案相关投资的统称。 智库机构气候政策研究中心 (CPI) 会即将于 11 月 28 日在德班举行,该承诺也将成为会议的一项重要议题。 进行了全面的研究,其报告称每年大约有 970 亿美元涌向发展中国家,大 尽管在年会上达成新的重要协议的可能性几乎没有, 但是大家还是希望能够 多来自富裕国家的私人借贷。其中私人投资的贡献约为 550 亿美元,其余 在组建全球绿色气候基金一事上取得新的突破, 使之成为这次峰会为数不多 390 亿美元来源于政府公共预算, 以及多边及双边开发银行从金融市场上募 的成果之一。不过发达国家该怎么履行承诺,绿色基金又将扮演什么样的角 集到的资金。而这 390 亿美元当中,至少有 210 亿美元是从西方国家的纳 色,这一切还是充满了未知数。 税人那里得来的。西方碳市场(旨在抵减碳排放)加上捐赠善款只贡献了不 到 30 亿美元(见上图)。 The good news is that This does not mean the rich world is close to fulfilling its promise there is already a at Copenhagen. That accord referred to “new and additional” surprisingly large flow of money, and it is obvious that most of last year’s investment would climate finance—as have happened in any event. It is also unclear what sorts of investment into warming funding should count towards the totals that were pledged. The abatement and resilience Copenhagen Accord refers to both public and private sources of measures is capital. Yet many developing countries and NGOs argue that it called. According to the should be aid money, delivered from public budgets, and with no first big study of the issue, strings attached. A more coherent view is that it should be money by Climate Policy Initiative used to cover the “incremental costs” of low-carbon (CPI), a think-tank, at developments. This is a term in the growing lexicon of climate least $97 billion a year is finance that refers to the additional cost of low-carbon going to developing investments—building a wind farm, say, compared with《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 54. The Economist Economist Study Association lower-cost alternatives such as coal-fired power stations. By 然而 CPI 的发现还是令人震惊的。需要大家注意的是,970 亿美元的总投 contrast the CPI study, which uses broad definitions of 资额超出了绝大多数人的预期,这其中就包括研究报告的作者本身。世界银 climate-related schemes—to include railways as well as 行的气候变化特使安德鲁﹒斯蒂尔把部分原因归结于大家的严重偏见, 总是 renewable energy and forestry, for example—captures the total 认为联合国程序繁杂,工作濒临瘫痪。他说道:“不等世界各国就气候变化 sums invested. 协商出什么结果,全世界为此展开的行动已经遥遥领先了。” 其中用于减缓 但这不等于富国们差不多实践了他们在哥本哈根的诺言。之前协议说的是 气候变暖的投资所占比例最大,CPI 算出的总额里有 930 亿美元都属此列。 “新的额外的” 投资,显然去年大部分投资应该是无论如何都可以实现的, 去年共有 2000 亿美元投资到发展中国家,用于可再生能源、低碳交通和提 但事实上没有。并且,哪些资金可以计入承诺的投资总额也并不明确。《哥 高能效的项目——高于全球投资总额的三分之一。 本哈根协议》中提到的资金来源既有公共资本也有私人资本。不过不少发展 中国家和非政府组织主张, 投资金额应算作救济款从国家的公共预算中划分 The magnitude of the private sector’s contribution to climate 出来,并且不该有任何附加条件。还有个较为合理的观点是,资金应当是用 finance suggests an obvious lesson for the Green Fund. It needs to 来支付低碳发展的“净成本”。净成本一词来源于不断扩充的气候金融词汇, be designed in such a way as to encourage much more of the 指的是低碳投资的额外成本——比如要建一座风力发电场, 就把修建燃煤发 same. And with the global investment industry sitting on over 电厂等其它低成本项目拿来做比较。相比之下,CPI 的研究报告对气候投资 $100 trillion of assets, this would be true even if Western 项目的定义是十分宽泛的——他们把铁路、 可再生能源和植树造林都算在了 governments had $100 billion to spare from their budgets, which 里面——这才得出了前文所述的投资总额。 they do not. 私营部门对气候金融的巨大贡献为绿色基金上了生动的一课。 该基金也需要 Its findings are nonetheless striking. The figure of $97 billion, 朝着鼓励更多私人投资的方向进行规划设计。如果身家超过 100 万亿美元 caveats admitted, is much bigger than most people, the study’s 的投资行业介入,西方各国政府即便只是从预算里拿得出 1000 亿美元, 实 authors included, would have expected. Andrew Steer, the World 现目标也指日可待。可是恐怕 1000 亿美元他们都拿不出来。 Bank’s special envoy for climate change, attributes this partly to an exaggerated impression of paralysis created by the UN process. The ability of development banks to obtain large amounts of “The world of action on climate change is a long, long way ahead private capital through borrowing also suggests how this might be of the world of negotiation,” he says. Most progress has been done. The loans they dispense are further multiplied when it made on measures to mitigate warming, such as renewable comes to individual projects, because their funding encourages energy, which account for $93 billion of CPI’s total estimate. Last additional private investment. According to the World Bank, loans year about $200 billion was invested in renewable energy, issued at market rates by multilateral lenders are typically low-carbon transport and energy efficiency in developing leveraged with private capital by a factor of three to six, and soft countries—more than a third of the global total. loans and grants by a factor of eight to ten.《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 55. The Economist Economist Study Association 开发银行能够以借款的方式获得大量私人资本,这也可能是实现目标的途径 This plan would not impress most developing countries. Yet it 之一。开发银行发放的贷款如果用于单项工程还会有放大效应,因为其注资 would at least be feasible, fiscally and politically, for rich ones. 可以吸引更多的私人投资。根据世界银行的统计,由多边债权人以市场利率 Limiting the role of the new fund would reduce a risk of it getting 发行的贷款将通过私有资本来实现杠杆化,其杠杆系数从 3 到 6 不等,而 bogged down by disagreements between its many owners. It 软贷款(注:向国际性银行及外国政府借贷的、偿还期较长、利息很低或无 would also put more onus on developing countries to become 息带有援助性质的贷款,一般用于贫困地区救济性项目)和补助的系数介于 more attractive recipients of investment, green or otherwise. 8 到 10 之间。 Liberalising financial sectors and scrapping wasteful fuel subsidies would be good ways to begin. This suggests the promised $100 billion a year could, if loosely 可惜多数发展中国家对该计划没多大兴趣。 尽管这样的提案至少无论上从财 defined, be raised with a relatively small contribution from 政上还是从政治上对发达国家来说都是可行的。 如果按此提议对绿色基金的 Western taxpayers. According to a proposal by Bloomberg New 职能进行限制,那么就可以降低由于所有者较多、众议难决从而使基金陷入 Energy Finance, a research firm, it might consist of $30 billion of 困局的风险。并且还可以让发展中国家有一定压力,促使其努力成为投资的 equity, some of which could be provided by developing-country 热门、 变得更为绿色, 或者在其它方面多下功夫。 综上来看, 解放金融部门、 investors, which would then be used to raise $70 billion of cheap 摒弃劳民伤财的能源补贴会是个不错的开端。 debt, $50 billion of which would come from private lenders. Having thus brought down the cost of capital, the “incremental 翻译者:陈玉梅&马彦天 costs” of renewable-energy projects over the standard sort would be relatively low. These could be covered by between $5 billion and $10 billion a year from public budgets, philanthropy and new sources of cash, such as taxes on bunker fuels or carbon markets. 这也就意味着按广义的绿色投资来讲, 每年 1000 亿美金的投资承诺可以不 用沾太多西方纳税人的光了。彭博新能源金融研究公司的一份建议书中提 出,投资中可以加入 300 亿美元的股权,部分股权就将来自发展中国家的 投资人本身,在此基础上另行发放 700 亿美金的低价债权,其中 500 亿美 元将从私人贷款方募得。若由此降低了融资成本,那么可再生能源项目超出 一般能源项目的“净成本”就会减少。所以只要每年从公共预算、捐赠款项、 燃料税和碳市场等新现金来源中拿出 50 到 100 亿美元, 就可以负担较低的 净成本了。《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 56. The Economist Economist Study Association Financial markets each package has not solved the underlying problems, and 金融市场 investors are pulled back into the mayhem. Greece lightning “就在我以为自己可以置身事外时,又被他们拉了回来”,投资者们一定很 想说出阿尔帕西诺在《教父 III 》里的这句台词。每当欧元区有领导人宣 火烧眉毛的希腊 布一项解决债务危机的措施时,市场都会恢复些元气,在10月27日那天也 The prime minister’s botched referendum plan has left the debt deal in trouble 不例外。但在几天之内事态变得明朗,每一套计划都没能解决问题,投资 由总理发起的失败的全民公投将使债务危机雪上加霜 者们不免又陷入混乱。 On October 31st the unheralded announcement by George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, that he would call a referendum on the debt deal turned market sentiment drastically. It prompted intense pressure from Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, that any such referendum be held as soon as possible and become a vote on staying in the euro. By November 3rd, as The Economistwent to press, the prospect of a vote that could pave the way for an exit from the euro, and a disorderly default, had pushed the Greek government to the brink of collapse. “JUST when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Investors 10月31日,希腊总理乔治帕潘德里欧突然宣布,将针对债务问题引发的市 must be tempted to echo the words of Al Pacino in “The 场情绪大幅波动,举行全民公投。这使得来自德国总理安吉拉默克尔和法 Godfather: Part III”. Markets rally every time euro-zone leaders 国总统尼古拉萨科齐的压力骤增,任何像这样全民公投都应尽快举行,进 announce a plan to solve their debt crisis, as they did again on 而可对决定希腊是否可以留在欧盟举行公投。到11月3日,《经济学人》发 October 27th. But within a few days, it becomes apparent that《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 57. The Economist Economist Study Association 稿时,公投的预期结果可能为希腊脱离欧盟做了铺垫,并且一次错误地弃 权,已经将希腊政府推向崩溃的边缘。 A Greek default would alarm investors in other indebted nations, such as Portugal and Italy, and might trigger the very financial meltdown the authorities have been striving to avoid. European bank shares, which rallied on initial news of the deal, slumped again on the referendum news (see left-hand chart). There is also the risk that depositors will shift their funds from banks in weak countries to safer havens. David Owen, an economist at becomes much less likely. But uncertainty about Greece’s ability Jefferies International, notes that Portuguese and Irish banks to stay the painful course and remain in the euro will persist. have pushed up deposit rates in recent months in an attempt to 如果帕潘德里欧先生下台或其政府倒台,全民公投几乎不可能实行了。但 dissuade savers from withdrawing their money. 对于希腊的还贷能力和是否可留在欧盟的前景的不确定依然存在。 一次希腊危机将对其他负债国的投资者起到警示作用,如在葡萄牙和意大 利,并引发各国政府都唯恐避之不及的金融滑坡。在消息首度传出的时, Doubts about the deal had emerged even before the Greek 欧洲银行的股指曾一度飙升,如今再次由于全民公投的结果而下跌(见左 thunderbolts. It was not clear that the euro-zone leaders had 手边的图片)。存款人也同样面临危机,他们将在实力薄弱的国家的银行存 done enough to bolster their rescue fund, the European Financial 款转入更安全的地方。大卫欧文是杰富瑞国际集团的一名经济分析师,他 Stability Facility (EFSF), so that it could plausibly stand behind 表示,葡萄牙和爱尔兰的银行已在近几月内将上调存款利率,以挽留投资 the debts of Italy and Spain. Ten-year Italian bond yields rose 者抛售他们的资金。 back above 6%, with the spread over German Bunds reaching a record euro-era high. If Mr Papandreou is ousted or his government falls, a referendum 在希腊突然崩溃之前怀疑声已经产生。欧元区的领导人们在支撑救援资金《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 58. The Economist Economist Study Association 方面恐怕还不够,这笔资金来自欧洲金融稳定机构(EFSF),所以它似乎 thereby shrinking the supply of credit to industry. 理由十足地做意大利和西班牙的坚强后盾。十年期的意大利债券收益率回 由银行筹集一千零六十五亿资金是否可以安抚投资者的心态,或者反而加 调了6个百分点,同时波及到德国债券,它创下了欧元时代的新高。 剧银行紧缩收支的步伐,使得各行业业福利缩水,这些仍然不甚明了。 European leaders hoped that emerging economies, particularly Investors were also unnerved by signs that the European China, might put money into a special purpose investment economy seems to be slipping closer to recession. The euro-zone vehicle (unhappily, SPIV) capitalised by the EFSF. That would purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector fell to help bolster the EFSF’s remaining firepower to €1 trillion ($1.4 47.1 in October, the third month it has been below the crucial 50 trillion). But the early signs were that such countries would be level, signifying a decline in activity. Unemployment in the region willing to invest only small amounts, and then on terms that rose to 16.2m in September, the highest since the launch of the would leave European governments bearing even more of the euro. The OECD cut its forecast for euro-zone growth in 2012 risks. A €3 billion bond issue by the EFSF was postponed on from 2% to 0.3%. November 2nd because of the uncertainty. 投资者们仍然在听到欧洲经济滑向萧条的边缘时感到不安。欧元区采购经 欧洲领导人们希望新兴经济体,尤其是中国,向由 EFSF 牵头的,有特殊用 理人指数的制造业部分在10月下降到了47.1,到第三个月,它已经降到了 途的投资媒介注资(虽然它并不情愿)。这将对维持 EFSF 残余活力至一万 危险的50以下,显示出经济活动的下降。失业人数在九月份上升至一千六 亿(约合一万四千亿美元)。但早期的信号显示,上述国家仅愿意进行小规 百二十万人,是自欧元发行以来最高值。经济合作与发展组织(OECD) 模投资,按理来说将使欧洲政府承担更多风险。一次由 EFSF 发行的三十 对了对欧元区2012年经济的涨幅预期也有所下降,从2%下降到0.3%。 亿欧元的债券由于诸多不确定性延迟至11月2日。 European stockmarkets fell heavily on November 1st, with Greek Nor was it clear whether the requirement for banks to raise and Italian indices falling by 7%. The euro also dropped to $1.37, €106.5 billion of capital would be enough to reassure investors, having been as high as $1.42 in the wake of the debt deal. It or if it would instead force banks to shrink their balance-sheets, made for a very uncomfortable first day at work for Mario Draghi,《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 59. The Economist Economist Study Association the new head of the European Central Bank. The ECB was 降了573点。根据从两次经济萧条后复苏的经济数据的反馈,10月华尔街 reportedly buying Italian bonds this week but it has not made the 的股票还有自1974年最好的月收益,而且标准普尔500家上市公司也给出 kind of unlimited commitment to purchase bonds desired by 了喜人的第三季度财报。但如今欧洲经济的每况愈下对于美国银行和出口 many commentators (see Economics focus). Many have their 商来说,仍然是个利空的消息。 eyes on the huge amount of bond redemptions Italy faces next spring (see right-hand chart). Investors rushed for the safety of Treasury bonds, where the 欧洲股票市场在11月1日大幅下挫,希腊和意大利更是下降了7个百分点。 ten-year yield dropped back below 2%. Worries about the euro 欧元对美元也贬值到了1比1.37,债务问题前它曾冲到1比1.42。这使得 also prompted traders to flee to the perceived safety of the yen, 新上任的欧洲央行行长德拉基的上班的第一天就如坐针毡。据报道,欧洲 prompting the Japanese authorities to attempt to weaken their 央行本周购买了意大利债券,但此举似乎并未使评论家们对于购买债券一 currency. All of which meant yet another crisis-strewn agenda for 事嘴下留情(见经济聚焦) 很多人盯着明年春天大量的意大利债券的收益。 。 the G20 leaders meeting in Cannes as The Economist went to (见右手边图)。 press. If only summits created economic wealth, the world’s problems would all have long been solved. Global markets took their cue from Europe, with the Dow Jones 投资者们蜂拥至国库债券,10年期的收益率下降至2%以下。对于欧元的 Industrial Average falling by 573 points over the course of 担心也使得贸易商选择日元以避风头,因而日本政府打算将货币贬值。上 October 31st and November 1st. In October stocks on Wall Street 述种种意味着的在戛纳举行的20国领导人会议将把危机的波及问题提上 enjoyed their best monthly gain since 1974 on the back of 日程,届时《经济学人》也将付印。如果此次峰会行之有效,那么这个世 economic data that soothed fears of a double-dip recession 界性问题就可以得到长久的解决。 and robust third-quarter earnings reports from S&P 500 firms. But a European collapse would still be very bad news for 翻译者:孙宇&李方裔 American banks and exporters. 世界市场也未能免受波及,道琼斯工业平均指数从10月31日到11月1日下《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 60. The Economist Economist Study Association Buttonwood 明?其中一项解决办法是把政府债券摘分成两层市场——即使是在希腊决 梧桐树下 定全民公投前,这个办法也貌似会给市场带来问题。 Two tiers, too complex Historically the great appeal of government bonds to investors is that they are a risk-free, liquid asset. Cautious investors can hold 双层市场,多重烦恼 them for the long term and bank the interest. More active The European debt deal changes the nature of investors have used government bonds as a bolthole when riskier government bonds markets (such as equities) have been in free fall. 欧债风波改变国债性质 以前,政府债券吸引人的地方在于它是一种零风险,高流动性的资产。谨 慎的投资者可以长期持有它并且把利息存起来。灵活一些的投资者则把它 当成风险性市场(比如股市)暴跌时的避难所。 The term “risk-free” looks distinctly dubious these days now that Greece is set to default. But a crucial part of the deal was the divide between private-sector creditors and official lenders. The former will take a 50% haircut; the latter will be paid off in full, albeit over the long term. 如今希腊面临违约,“零风险”这个词看起来确实很玄乎。不过关键一点在 于将市场划分为私人债权方和官方借债人。前者会损失50%的资金;而后 者可以全数收回,即使只是长期来看是这样。 This provision seems, in part, to be politically motivated. Governments want to reassure their own voters that they will not MIGHT the European debt “deal” on October 27th turn out to be be penalised for aiding Greece; the burden will fall on hazily too clever for its own good? One result has been to create a identified “speculators” instead. Many of these speculators turn two-tier market in government bonds. Even before the shock out to be banks, which then have to be rescued by governments, news of the Greek referendum, this seemed to be causing so this process is a bit of a charade. problems in the markets. 这个规定某程度上看起来是由政治因素驱动。政府想要安抚选民援助希腊 10月27日达成的欧债“解决方案”对于它的自身利益是否显得有点太过聪 并不会给自身带来损失;相反,负担会由那些传说中的“投机者”来承担。《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 61. The Economist Economist Study Association 这些投机者中大部分其实都是银行,但这些银行都得靠政府救助,因此这 makes investors more nervous, forcing yields even higher. 个过程看起来就像猜字谜游戏一样让人搞不懂。 眼下的危险在于意大利陷入了其它欧洲国家面临的恶性循环中。债券收益 率越高,兑现的难度也越大。反过来,这也让投资者更紧张,从而继续抬 But there are consequences to protecting official creditors. The 高收益率。 deal makes a smaller dent in Greece’s borrowings; the country will still have a 120% debt-to-GDP ratio in 2020. In addition, The European rescue deal also created another way in which the private-sector creditors will be well aware that they are bond market could be bifurcated. One part of the plan involves second-class citizens. The more that euro-zone countries come the creation of an insurance scheme whereby certain bonds to depend on official support, the greater the eventual losses that would carry a guarantee from the European Financial Stability private creditors may take. Facility (EFSF), the euro zone’s bail-out pot, under which 不过,保护官方债权人也要承担后果。解决方案只轻微地削减了希腊的借 investors would be protected against a first loss on their holdings 款:在2020年,它仍将面临120%的负债-生产总值比率。再者,私人债 of up to, say, 20%. 权人会清楚意识到他们只是二等公民。欧元区国家越是依赖官方支持,私 欧洲救助方案也为债券市场一分为二想出了另一个办法。计划的其中一点 人债权人就要承担越多的最终损失。 是创立一个保险机制,通过这个机制某些债券可以由欧洲金融稳定机构 (EFSF) ,也就是欧元区的救助基金,提供担保。在这个基金的构架下, This higher risk for private investors may be one reason why 投资者所持资产,比如不高于20%的初步损失,可以受到保护。 Italian bond yields have been rising, even though the European Central Bank has reportedly been buying Italian debt. On It is not clear whether this scheme is practical. One potential November 1st, ten-year bonds were yielding 6.21% and the pitfall is that it may mean that some bondholders have more spread (or excess interest rate) over German government bonds rights than others, a provision that may break “negative pledge was the highest since the euro area was created. clauses” which specifically forbid such a situation. 私人投资者的风险增加,这也是即使有传欧洲中央银行持续买入意大利债 这个方案是否实用目前尚不明朗。一个潜在的缺陷是这意味着部分债券持 务的情况下,该国债券收益率仍然上升的原因之一。11月1日,十年期债 有人会拥有比其他人更多的权利,这违背了“消极保证条款”——该条款明 券的收益率达到6.21%,对德国政府债券的价差(或称附加利率)达到了 令禁止这样的情况发生。 欧元区成立以来的最高点。 The insurance may trade as a separate instrument and could The danger here is that Italy descends into the kind of vicious thus be transferred from investor to investor. But that makes it circle that other European nations have faced. The higher the sound remarkably like a credit-default swap (CDS), an yield on its debt, the harder the debt is to service. In turn, that instrument European politicians profess to hate. Indeed, in《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 62. The Economist Economist Study Association another “too clever by half” device, the Europeans have gone out of their way to ensure that the 50% Greek haircut does not But the authorities play with the government-bond market at trigger payments under CDS contracts. Investors may their peril. It plays such a vital part in the financial reasonably presume that buying a CDS on European debt is an system—setting the benchmark rate for other borrowers, acting ineffective form of protection. That will make them less likely to as collateral for other debt deals, forming part of banks’ liquidity buy European government bonds altogether. reserves—that it needs to be as liquid and transparent a market 该保险可以作为单独的金融工具被交易, 也就是说可以在投资者手中流转。 as possible. 不过这让它听起来特别像信用违约互换(CDS)——这玩意儿欧洲政客人 不过当局在以一种很危险的方式操作公债市场。他们操作着金融系统的一 见人恨。的确,在另一个“自作聪明”的策略下,欧洲人民不畏艰险地确保 个至关重要的部分:给其它债权人设定基准利率;给其它债务作抵押;以 了50%的希腊抵押在 CDS 协议下是拿不到钱的。投资者有理由相信购买 及组成部分银行的流动性储备。这些操作极其重要,因此他们需要一个尽 欧洲债券的 CDS 不能有效地保护资产。 这将让他们更不愿意购买所有的欧 可能流动并且透明的市场。 洲政府债券。 October’s euro-zone debt deal already looks like the latest in a If the scheme goes ahead and the EFSF does not insure all long line of summit packages that provide a short-term boost to existing Italian and Spanish debt (it doesn’t have the money to confidence but fail to deal with the fundamental problems of high do so), some bonds will have a guarantee and some won’t. The debt and uncompetitive economies. Indeed, by fragmenting latter will presumably trade at a discount to the former. markets, it may actually make things worse. 如果这个计划得以实施并且 EFSF 没有将所有现有的意大利和西班牙债务 十月的欧元区债务解决方案貌似是一长串高层会议后最新的能短期提振市 纳入保险范围(它没有那么多钱做到这一点) ,那么一些债务会被担保而有 场信心的方案。不过,它仍然不能解决高额负债和缺乏竞争力的经济体这 一些就不会。没能被担保的那些很可能会以低于前者的价格交易。 些基本问题。事实上,分割市场反而会使情况恶化。 Some would say this doesn’t matter. After the 2008 crisis 翻译者:袁子葳&李方裔 governments guaranteed some bank debt, creating two types of security. Already investors have to choose between government bonds of different maturities and between conventional and inflation-linked debt. 有人会说,这也没什么要紧。2008年的危机后政府担保了一些银行债务, 创造出两种证券。投资者反正都需要在不同到期日的政府债券之间以及传 统债券和与通胀挂钩的债券之间做出选择。《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 63. The Economist Economist Study Association Swiss banks doors up on Bahnhofstrasse, will probably announce 瑞士银行业 further-reaching plans for its investment bank on November 17th. It recorded a SFr650m ($738m) loss in this bit of its The Swiss diet business for the third quarter, mainly because of a SFr1.8 billion loss from an “unauthorise trading incident” in London. 瑞士的减肥餐 瑞信的竞争对手,瑞银,在班霍夫大街上与前者仅几步之遥,其规模更大、 Banks in Switzerland are slimming down, but slowly 也更容易出问题。 瑞银可能会在 11 月 17 号公布投资银行业务的长期计划。 瑞士的一些银行正在减肥,不过进展缓慢 仅第三季度在此项目上的损失就达 6.5 亿瑞士法郎(7.38 亿美元),主要 是因为发生在伦敦的一起“违例交易事故”造成了 18 亿瑞士法郎的损失。 HARD TIMES for investment bankers on Wall Street and in the City of London also mean trouble on Bahnhofstrasse, the Zurich Other banks may be forced to rejig their investment-banking street that is home to Credit Suisse and UBS. Switzerland’s two arms as the impact of higher capital charges proposed under global banks both recorded losses in investment banking for the Basel 3 rules begin to bite. Mr Dougan says that Credit Suisse will third quarter. have a “first mover advantage”. Yet the changes at Credit Suisse 华尔街和伦敦城的投资银行家的困难时期,对班霍夫大街而言,也同样意 still seem rather cosmetic. He plans to downsize only a couple of 味着难关。位于苏黎世的班霍夫大街,是瑞信和瑞银所在地。这两家瑞士 businesses and is not moving away from the bank’s “integrated 跨国银行的投资银行业务都于第三季度报亏。 banking model” whereby investment banking is supposed to mesh ever more closely with asset management and private On the back of these bad numbers, Brady Dougan, the boss of banking. He also hopes to produce a heady 15% to 20% annual Credit Suisse, on November 1st announced a shift in its return on equity by 2014, not that far from the 25% target that investment-banking strategy. The business of fixed-income global banks used to set themselves before the crisis. sales and trading, which has suffered two bad quarters, will be 由于巴塞尔第三协议提高了资本要求,受其影响,其他银行可能会重新调 cut back. Instead the bank will concentrate more on trading 整投资银行业务。Dougan 表示瑞信将会是第一个吃螃蟹的人。但瑞信的 foreign exchange, equities and commodities for clients. 转变似乎还是用来装点门面的。他计划仅缩小几项业务的规模,并不改变 鉴于这些糟糕的数据, 瑞信的老板 Brady Dougan 于 11 月 1 号宣布转变 现有的“综合性银行模式”,该模式能使投资银行业务与资本管理和私人银 其在投资银行业务上的战略。削减两季度亏损的固定收益证券销售和交易 行业务衔接的更紧密。 他还希望在 2014 年, 年股本收益率能高达到 15% 业务,将重心转向为客户提供外汇、证券和商品交易服务。 到 20%,这与跨国银行在金融危机前所设定的 25%目标值差距并不大。 UBS, Credit Suisse’s bigger and more accident-prone rival a few Swiss regulators will be disappointed. They had hoped that new《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 64. The Economist Economist Study Association capital requirements would nudge the two biggest banks to cut manager at UBS asks: “Do I need to be good at equities? No. But back on risky activities. The new rules require them to hold core why should I give it up?” Why indeed? Investment banking, capital of 10% and up to 9% of contingent capital, a type of debt which even in good times provided only around 15% of the two that converts to equity in times of trouble, and to show how they big banks’ profits, has to be backed by around two-thirds of their would wind up their business in a crisis. The aim is to prevent a capital. Most of this profit has historically gone to investment severe jolt to the economy if one or both of them were to fail, as bankers, notes Philipp Hildebrand, chairman of the Swiss UBS very nearly did in 2008. The regulators’ intention had been National Bank. Shareholders, who should be concerned, do not that the law would force the two banks to move away from appear to mind. That said, traditional wealth managers, such as volatile capital-markets activity to concentrate on the more Bank Julius Baer, are more highly valued (see chart). stable wealth-management services that Swiss banks are 两大银行在口头上提出要精简投资银行业务, 并增加资产管理服务的想法, famous for. 但仅此而已。瑞银的一位高级经理问道:“我需要擅长炒股吗?不需要。 但 瑞士的监管机构本希望新的资本要求能迫使两大银行巨头减少高风险投 我为什么要放弃炒股呢?” 是呀,为啥非要放弃呢?投资银行业务即便在 资,但结果会让他们失望。新规要求银行需持有 10%的核心资本和多达 黄金时期, 也只为两大银行提供约 15%的利润, 却不得不依赖企业三分之 9%的应急资本(一种在困境中可转为证券的债务),同时还要求他们公 二的资本来支持。瑞士国家银行主席 Philipp Hildebran 指出,历史上, 布危机中的业务削减计划。目的是在两大银行中的一家或两家同时破产时 这些利润中的大部分都流进了投资银行家的口袋。本来应被关注的股东利 (2008 年瑞银几乎破产), 益,这些银行家们却并不在意。这说明,那些传统的财富管理公司,如宝 防止经济出现严重震荡。监管 盛银行,估值会高于瑞信和瑞银(如表)。 机构试图通过法律迫使两家银 行远离动荡的资本市场,而专 One problem is that the classic Swiss banking model is also under 注于更加稳定的理财服务—— regulatory attack. A tradition of banking secrecy, which 瑞士银行业正因此项服务而闻 protected clients from tax collectors, is giving way to an era of 名于世。 more transparency. With both parts of their businesses threatened, Switzerland’s big banks are in an uncomfortable The banks do pay lip spot. service to the idea of 问题在于,经典的瑞士银行业模式也受到了调控的冲击。保护顾客免遭税 streamlining investment 务机构调查的银行保密传统,将被趋向透明的时代所取代。由于业务双方 banking to serve asset 均面临危机,瑞士大银行的处境艰难。 management, but not much more. A senior 译者:黄文琦&尹茜《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 65. The Economist Economist Study Association Ageing ameliorated. Dr Baker has shown—in mice, at least—that ageing 衰老 body cells not only suffer themselves, but also have adverse effects on otherwise healthy cells around them. More Forever young? significantly, he has shown that if such ageing cells are selectively destroyed, these adverse effects go away. 永葆年轻? 生物学家们在衰老问题上已经取得了很多进展。然而,对于如何放慢 A way to counteract part of the process of growing old 这一进程,还不得知晓。已经知道有特定形式的某段基因可以延长生命, 一种对抗衰老的方法 但对于没有那段基因的人来说,却意义不大。这一期的《自然》刊登了一 项研究,作者是明尼苏达州梅约诊所的 Darren Baker。虽然论文中描述 了可能有一种方法改善衰老进程这一让人惊奇的结果,Baker 博士用小鼠 做的实验表明,不仅仅是正在变老的体细胞本身,甚至会对它周围的健康 细胞产生不好的影响。他表示如果选择性的毁坏这种正在变老的细胞,那 么所带来的负面影响也会随之消失,这一点是非常值得注意的。 The story starts with an observation, made a few years ago, that senescent cells often produce a molecule called P16INK4A. Most body cells have an upper limit on the number of times they can divide—and thus multiply in number. P16INK4A is part of the control mechanism that brings cell division to a halt when this limit is reached. 故事是从几年前的一项观察开始, 变老的细胞会产生出 P16INK4A 分子。 大多数体细胞都有一个分裂次数上限,因此复制也是有限的。P16INK4A 是 BIOLOGISTS have made a lot of progress in understanding 在细胞分裂到达上限时,在部分程度上控制分裂机制停止的分子。 ageing. They have not, however, been able to do much about slowing it down. Particular versions of certain genes have been The Hayflick limit, as the upper bound is known (after shown to prolong life, but that is no help to those who do not Leonard Hayflick, the biologist who discovered it), is believed to have them. A piece of work reported in this week’s Nature by be an anticancer mechanism. It provides a backstop that Darren Baker of the Mayo Clinic, in Minnesota, though, describes prevents a runaway cell line from reproducing indefinitely, and an extraordinary result that points to a way the process might be thus becoming a tumour. The limit varies from species to《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 66. The Economist Economist Study Association species—in humans, it is about 60 divisions—and its size is Baker 博士通过基因工程方法控制了一组非同寻常的小鼠。它们患有 correlated with the lifespan of the animal concerned. 早衰症,它们衰老的速度比普通小鼠要快。(也有一小部分不幸的人类与 Hayflick-limited cells thus accumulate as an animal ages, and 之相似。)这一特例让他想到给这些小白鼠添加杀死能产生 P16INK4A 分子 many biologists believe they are one of the things which control 的细胞的基因。他植入了一种与 P16INK4A 相似的另一种动物基因,它们很 maximum lifespan. Dr Baker’s experiment suggests this is 接近,而且手同一个遗传开关控制。每当 P16INK4A 活跃的时候,这一基因 correct. 也活跃,产生书一种对自身无害,但会被一种特定药物致死的蛋白质。给 海 弗 利 克 极 限 让 人 们 知 道 了 分 裂 次 数 上 限 ( 生 物 学 家 Leonard 小鼠这种药物,到达海弗利克极限的细胞就会死亡,同时不会影响到其他 Hayflick 的发现),也相信存在一种抗癌机制,是一种能阻止细胞无限复 细胞。Baker 博士饲养他的小鼠,给予药物并且观察它们。 制变成肿瘤的防线。不同物种的分裂次数极限不同,就人类来说大约是 60 次,而且这个值的多少是和动物寿命相关的。因此,细胞以海弗利克极限 The results were spectacular. Mice given the drug every 限制的方式,形成一种动物寿命,并且许多生物学家相信,这是控制寿命 three days from birth suffered far less age-related body-wasting 最久化的东西之一。Baker 博士的实验证实了这点。 than those which were not. They lost less fatty tissue. Their muscles remained plump (and effective, too, according to Age shall not weary them treadmill tests). And they did not suffer cataracts of the eye. 它们不会因衰老而疲倦 They did, though, continue to experience age-related problems Dr Baker genetically engineered a group of mice that were in tissues that do not produce P16INK4A as they get old. In already quite unusual. They had a condition called progeria, particular, their hearts and blood vessels aged normally (or, meaning that they aged much more rapidly than normal mice. (A rather, what passes for normally in mice with progeria). For that few unfortunate humans suffer from a similar condition.) The reason, since heart failure is the main cause of death in such extra tweak he added to the DNA of these mice was a way of mice, their lifespans were not extended. killing cells that produce P16INK4A. He did this by inserting into the 结果很惊人,出生后的每三天,接受药物的小鼠比未接受药物的小鼠 animals’ DNA, near the gene for P16INK4A, a second gene that was, 遭受更少的由年龄导致的机体浪费。它们损失更少的脂肪组织,而且肌肉 because of this proximity, controlled by the same genetic switch. 丰满(根据跑步测试表明肌肉能够正常工作)。而且他们不会患白内障。 This second gene, activated whenever the gene for P16INK4A was 但是它们也会遇到寿命相关的问题,就是变老的同时组织内不会产生 active, produced a protein that was harmless in itself, but which P16INK4A 分子。特别是它们的心脏和血管,衰老程度正常(或者在一定程 could be made deadly by the presence of a particular drug. 度上被误认为在早衰症小鼠中是正常的)。因此,这样的小鼠死亡主要是 Giving a mouse this drug, then, would kill cells which had 由心脏衰竭引起,所以它们的寿命也不算是延长了。 reached their Hayflick limits while leaving other cells untouched. Dr Baker raised his mice, administered the drug, and watched. The drug, Dr Baker found, produced some benefit even if it《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 67. The Economist Economist Study Association was administered to a mouse only later in life. Though it could chemicals that are believed to cause much of the cellular damage not clear cataracts that had already formed, it partly reversed which is bracketed together and labelled as senescence. But muscle-wasting and fatty-tissue loss. Such mice were thus these chemicals are a by-product of the metabolic activity that healthier than their untreated confrères. powers the body. If 4 billion years of natural selection have not Baker 博士发现,即使一只小鼠在生命尽头接受药物,药物也会带来 dealt with them it suggests that suppressing them may have 一些好处。虽然还无法确定白内障是否已经形成,但它反转了肌肉组织和 worse consequences than not suppressing them. 脂肪组织的损失。因此这样的小鼠比未接受药物的小鼠更健康。 不看生物化学方面的细节,最吸引人的是,Baker 博士的研究结果带 给人们思考减缓衰老的新思路——与其选择对抗,不如顺其自然。现有的 Analysis of tissue from mice killed during the course of the 延缓寿命的研究路线是消除海弗利克极限,结果都是比较不理想的,或者 experiment showed that the drug was having its intended effect. 产生出乎意料的氧化性化学物质,引起更多的细胞损害,并也算作衰老。 Cells producing P16INK4A were killed and cleared away as they 但是这些化学物质是维持身体机能的新陈代谢活动的副产品。如果四十亿 appeared. Dr Baker’s results therefore support the previously 年的自然选择都不能很好的处理掉它们,那么就表示抑制它们会带来更糟 untested hypothesis that not only do cells which are at the 的后果,所以还是不去抑制它们。 Hayflick limit stop working well themselves, they also have malign effects (presumably through chemicals they secrete) on By contrast, actually eliminating senescent cells may be a their otherwise healthy neighbours. logical extension of the process of shutting them down (they 对实验中死亡小鼠组织的分析表明, 药物有预期的影响。 产生 P16INK4A certainly cannot cause cancer if they are dead), and thus may not 的细胞一出现就会彻底被杀死。 因此 Baker 博士的研究结果支持了先前未 have adverse consequences. It is not an elixir of life, for 被验证的假说,即到达海弗利克极限的细胞体不仅本身会不好好工作,而 eventually the body will run out of cells, as more and more of 且还会对周围的健康细胞产生负面影响(推测是通过分泌某种化学物质影 them reach their Hayflick limits. But it could be a way of 响的)。 providing a healthier and more robust old age than people currently enjoy. Regardless of the biochemical details, the most intriguing 比较而言,真正地消除衰老的细胞来延长细胞运转进程(它们死去显 thing Dr Baker’s result provides is a new way of thinking about 然不会引发癌症),也许是更符合逻辑的办法,也因此不会带来负面结果。 how to slow the process of ageing—and one that works with the 虽然无法长生不老,最终所有的体细胞都会消耗殆尽,因为有海弗利克极 grain of nature, rather than against it. Existing lines of inquiry 限。但是人们在老去的时候,可以活的更健康更强壮。 into prolonging lifespan are based either on removing the Hayflick limit, which would have all sorts of untoward Genetically engineering people in the way that Dr Baker consequences, or suppressing production of the oxidative engineered his mice is obviously out of the question for the《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 68. The Economist Economist Study Association foreseeable future. But if some other means of clearing cells rich Viking navigation in P16INK4A from the body could be found, it might have the 北欧海盗的航行史 desired effect. The wasting and weakening of the tissues that accompanies senescence would be a thing of the past, and old Sunstruck age could then truly become ripe. 以 Baker 博士改造的小鼠方式出来的基因工程的人类, 显然超出了未 太阳石 INK4A 来可预见问题的范围。但是如果其他方法发现确认富含 P16 分子的细 How Norsemen found their way round in cloudy weather 胞,也许会获得期待的效果。那样一来,衰老伴随的人体组织的衰竭就会 诺曼人是如何在阴天找到航向的。 不复存在,那时对抗衰老才是真正意义上的成熟。 CENTURIES before Columbus, Viking adventurers ruled the 翻译者:朱田牧&孙卉芸 North Atlantic. They sailed as far as America without the aid of magnetic compasses, which was no mean feat. They were, however, assisted in their travels by another sort of magical device. According to the sagas they had stones which could point to the sun, even when the sky was cloudy. 在哥伦布以前,北欧海盗一样的冒险家一直统治者北大西洋。他们在没有 指南针的帮助下也能航行至美洲大陆,这不得不说是一个壮举。据传说, 事实上他们同样依靠一种的具有魔力的石头的指引, 帮助他们即使是在阴 天也能够辨认出太阳的方向, 。 No such sunstone has survived. But Guy Ropars of the University of Rennes, in France, thinks he knows what they were. He and his colleagues have been experimenting with a mineral called Iceland spar. Their results, just published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, suggest they are on to something. 如今,这样的太阳石已经不复存在,但是法国雷恩大学的 Guy Ropars 说他知道那些石头在哪, 他和他的同事已经在用一种叫做冰岛晶石的矿物 做实验,而其结果是他们发布在英国皇家学会学报上的论文,那上面写明《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 69. The Economist Economist Study Association 了他们正在从事的研究。 the frequency of ship burials of Viking chiefs, there is one tantalising find from a more recent shipwreck. This is a large The passage of sunlight through the air polarises it. That means calcite crystal recovered from a vessel that went down off the light from the sky itself points towards the sun, if you have the coast of Alderney, in the Channel Islands, in Elizabethan times. necessary equipment to detect the polarisation. Dr Ropars has Several centuries underwater have rendered the Alderney shown that a piece of Iceland spar is sufficient. crystal opaque, but Dr Ropars and his team are now examining 太阳石使得透过空气的阳光发生偏振(汇聚在它上) ,这就意味着来自于 it, and believe it may be Iceland spar. Dr Ropars suspects it was 天空的光线其本身就会指出太阳的方向, 如果你认为需要有一种设备来侦 being used as a sunstone because the magnetic compasses of 察这种偏振,Ropars 博士认为一块冰岛晶石恰到好处。 the day were thrown out of kilter by iron cannon. 尽管北欧海盗时代的太阳石已经不复存在, 尽管北欧海盗首领船失事频率 Iceland spar is a form of calcite that splits light into two beams. 很高,但是从最近越来越多的海难中找到了一个诱人的发现,一个巨大的 If the light is polarised, there is only one way to orient the 方解石晶石被发现于伊丽莎白一世时期沉没在奥尔德尼海峡的一条船舶 crystal to produce beams of equal intensity. Find this orientation 上。几个世纪的水下泡制使得奥尔德尼晶石已经混沌不再发光,但 是 by looking through the crystal at the sky at a time when you can Ropars 博士和他的小组正在检测,并且相信这就是冰岛晶石。Ropars see the sun, mark the sun’s direction on the crystal, and your 预测这块石头曾经就是被用作当太阳石,因为在一天的使用过程中,指南 mark will always point towards the sun when you match the 针已经受铁质火炮的影响而变得失去了功效。 beams from even a tiny patch of blue in an otherwise overcast sky. Dr Ropars’s experiments suggest the method is accurate to The true nature of the sunstone will probably not be settled until within 5°. That is good enough for navigation of the sort the and unless one turns up in either a sunken Viking vessel or a Vikings managed. ship burial. Perhaps, though, they not only permitted the 冰岛晶石是方解石的一种,它可以把光线劈分成两束。那么如果光线发生 Vikings to reach America, but also helped save England from the 了偏振,就只有一种方式使得晶石继续制造出同等密度的光束。当你在可 Spanish Armada. 以看见太阳的时候,仔细观察晶石,确认出方向,然后在晶石上标记出太 也许只有到或者说除非有一只沉没的北欧海盗船或者失事船只重新浮出 阳的方向,这样,即使是在另外一个阴雨蒙蒙的天空中,哪怕只有一小束 水面,太阳石的真实身份才会被确定。也许,他们不仅证明了北欧海盗到 光在你的晶石上留下微小的痕迹,你也可以通过它来辨认出太阳的方向。 达过美洲的事实,而且从西班牙无敌舰队的魔爪下救出了英格兰。 Ropars 博士的实验显示以这种方式可以精确到 5°以内。 而北欧人掌握的 这种技巧已经足够好以用来导航。 翻译者:汤旭武&靳浩然 Though no sunstones have survived from Viking days, despite《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 70. The Economist Economist Study Association Science in South Africa a test bed for MeerKAT, a device that will consist of 64 somewh 南非科学 at larger dishes and will be the most powerful instrument in the southern hemisphere as well as one of the three most sensitiv All squared e in the world. 南部高原列阵望远镜(KAT-7)包含 7 个可控制的碟形装置,每个直径 全平方 12 米。这个已经是非洲最强力的列阵望远镜了。但这仅仅是一个包含 64 A new radio telescope may catalyse African science 个更大的碟形物的装置“海猫”的试验台,,它会是南半球最强大,世界 上 一种新的射电望远镜可能促动非洲科学进步 三个最敏感的装置之一。 THE idea for the world’ most powerful radio telescope, capable The SKA will dwarf these minnows. It will be 50-100 times mor of seeing back nearly to the origins of the universe, has been a e powerful than any predecessor, and will be able to peer back round for some time. Known as the Square Kilometre Array, or through time almost to the Big Bang itself, exploring the forma SKA—as that was originally planned to be the total collecting ar tion of the first stars and galaxies, the role of magnetism in the ea of its thousands of dish-shaped antennae—it was conceived early cosmos, what exactly dark matter and dark energy are, t of by an international group of astronomers in the early 1990s. he nature of gravity, whether intelligent life has ever existed a No construction has yet begun. Indeed, no site has yet been c nywhere other than on Earth, and the validity of such fundame hosen. However, in the vast quietness of the Karoo, a semi-des ntal scientific concepts as Einstein’s theory of relativity. The wo ert in South Africa, a small prototype is already operating and i rld’s astronomers are, understandably, fizzing with excitement. ts first images are, by all accounts, remarkable. SKA 会让这些显得无足轻重 。它会比任何之前的望远镜强大 50 到 100 建造一架全世界最强大的射电望远镜,足以观察到宇宙的起源的想法已经 倍,并且可以一直从时间上往回窥到大爆炸时期;探寻最初的星星和银河 产生很久了。这个计划是 1990 年代由一批国际天文学家设想出来的,命 的形成;发现早期宇宙中磁力的作用;黑暗物质和黑暗能量到底是什么; 名为平方公里列阵(SKA),是因为平方公里是 最初计划的用它成千的盘 重力的本质是什么; 智能生物是否曾经存在于除地球外的任何地方;已经 形天线的收集区域。 目前还没有动工。 事实上, 具体的地点还没有被选定。 像爱因斯坦相对论这些基础科学概念的正确性。可以理解,世界上的天文 然而,在寂静广阔的南非的一个半干旱沙漠,一个小雏形已经初见端倪, 学家们,已经激动的冒泡了。 而且它的初步形象被广泛评论为十分卓越。 Astronomical sums The Karoo Array Telescope (KAT-7) consists of seven steerable 天文学汇总 dishes, each 12 metres across. As such, it is already the most There is, though, the small matter of money. The SKA will cost powerful array-based telescope in Africa. It is, though, merely a lot: €1.5 billion-2 billion ($2 billion-2.75 billion), according to《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 71. The Economist Economist Study Association the nine-country consortium behind the project; nearer $6 billi ithdrawal, however, is mitigated by the keen interest being sho on, according to America’s National Science Foundation. On No wn by China. The country with the world’s second-biggest econ vember 23rd those nine countries—Australia, Britain, Canada, omy has never invested in a big global science project before. France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Sou 最初,预期美国会参加。但是现在美国取消了参与,至少在 2020 之前是 th Africa—and possibly China as well, are due to commit thems 这样的。然而美国退出带来的失望,被中国积极参与的热情所减缓。这个 elves to paying €90m for the initial engineering-planning phase. 世界第二大经济体国家之前从未投资任何世界性的科学项目。 But it will be when the megabuck work on the actual telescope begins in 2016, that the crunch comes. China was one of the places originally considered as host for th 当然,这里有个关于钱的小问题。SKA 需要耗资巨大,支持项目的 9 国财 e telescope. But it and Argentina have since been dropped, lea 团估计 15 到 20 亿欧元(核美金将近 20 到 27.5 亿 ),美国国家科学基 ving just South Africa and Australia in the race. They are said t 金估计要 60 亿美金。到 11 月 23 日为止,加入的九国是:澳大利亚,巴 o be neck and neck. Both offer remote, sparsely populated are 西,加拿大,法国,德国,意大利,荷兰,新西兰和南非---有可能中国也 as with low levels of man-made radio interference, along with 要加入, 等着表态是否支付 9 千万欧元起始工程策划费。 关键时刻是 2016 world-class teams of astronomers. Australia has more experien 年,这个百万工程真正开始时。 ce with radio astronomy, but South Africa has the advantage of lower costs and ease of access. As a developing country in whi This is where MeerKAT—named after a species of mongoose fo ch over a third of the population still live on less than $2 a day, und in arid areas of south-western Africa such as the Karoo—co it might also be considered to have the greater moral claim. A uld play a crucial role. The construction of its dishes is about to nd it has KAT-7, and will shortly have MeerKAT. be put out to tender, and it is expected to be fully operational 中国也是最初考虑的建造望远镜的地点。但是随后中国和阿根廷都被否定 by 2016. If MeerKAT succeeds, it might help persuade sceptical 了,只剩下南非和澳大利亚竞赛。这两国家不分伯仲。都可以提供遥远, governments to cough up for the SKA. It will also enhance Sou 远离人烟,低人为无线干扰的环境,并且都有世界级的天文学家。澳洲在 th Africa’s chances of hosting this much larger project. 天文无线电上更有经验,但是南非有低成本低准入限制的优势。作为一个 这就是“海猫”工程(根据一种在非洲西南不毛之地发现猫鼬所命名) 会起 发展中国家,仍有三分之一的人每天生活费不到 2 美元,如果这项项目在 到很重要的作用的时候。建造那些碟状物可能采取招标的方式,可能要到 此开展,可能有更大的人道主义意义。并且它有建成 KAT-7,并且很快要 2016 才开始全面施工。如果海猫成功了,可能能帮助说服那些持怀疑态 建成“海猫”的优势。 度的政府为 SKA 出钱。更有助于南非获得开展更大的 SKA 项目的机会。 The victor will be announced in February by the board of the no Originally, America had been expected to participate. But it has t-for-profit company that is to be formed by the participating c now cried off, at least until 2020. The disappointment of this w ountries when they formally sign up to start paying for the proj《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 72. The Economist Economist Study Association ect. Regardless of who wins, some critics say South Africa’s co 加斯加,毛里求斯,莫桑比克,纳米比亚和赞比亚,可能成为非洲更广阔 ntribution would be better spent feeding and housing the count 的科学文艺复兴的发射台。澳大利亚也不会轻易放弃,可能最终结果是望 ry’s poor. But if South Africa did succeed, that would mean part 远镜被瓜分,一些天线在一个国家,其他的在另外一个国家。但即使只能 of everybody else’s contribution would be spent there as well 分的一半,这对南非科学也是个有益的推动。并且将会成为 传统的力量愿 —a prize worth fighting for. Moreover, the government believes 意分享收益的标志。 projects like this help inspire people and encourage young Sou th Africans to consider scientific careers. Naledi Pandor, the sci 翻译者:王紫珊&李方裔 ence and technology minister, is particularly supportive. She se es the SKA as a way to broaden the country’s scientific base an d diversify its current white, male-dominated complexion. 获选人会等二月这些参与国正式签约为项目投资后,由参与国组成的非盈 利公司的董事宣布 。 不管谁最终获胜,很多评论认为,南非更应该把这 些钱花在给本国穷人提供衣食上。但是如果南非真的获胜,这表明其他所 有国家的部分投资都会花在为南非贫民提供衣食上---这也是为什么这个 项目如此值得争取的原因。此外,南非政府相信这个项目会帮助启发人民, 并且鼓励年轻的南非人选择科学事业。南非科技总理纳莱蒂·潘多尔特别支 持这一点,她认为 SKA 项目,是扩大国家科学基础并且丰富目前的白种男 性主导的局面很好的途径。 The bid also involves eight of South Africa’s neighbours—Botsw ana, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nami bia and Zambia—and could be the launch pad for a wider scient ific renaissance in Africa. Australia will not give up easily, and t he outcome may be that the telescope is shared, with some of the antennae in one country and the rest in the other. But even that half loaf would be a useful boost for South African science, and a sign that the traditional powers of the subject are willing to share the goodies. 此次投标竞选的还包含南非的 8 个邻居---波斯瓦纳,戛纳,肯尼亚,马达《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 73. The Economist Economist Study Association Science in Argentina raised researchers’ salaries, launched a scheme to repatriate 阿根廷的科技建设 departed scientists and gave tax breaks to software companies. Ms Fernández followed suit by creating a science ministry and Cristina the alchemist putting a biologist, Lino Barañao, in charge of it. She also increased grants to firms that try to develop new products. “炼金术士”克里斯蒂娜 阿根廷前总统兼现任总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯的现任丈夫,克里斯蒂 Argentina is trying to build a scientific establishment 娜·费尔南德斯于 2003 年就职。阿根廷那时投入到研发(R&D)上的费用 阿根廷正着手建立一个科研机构 只占其 GDP 的 0.41%,现在上涨到 0.64%(相比之下,巴西在 2003 年研发投入为 GDP 的 0.95%,2009 年为 1.18%) 。基什内尔提高了科 SOUTH AFRICA is not the only middle-income country which 研人员的工资,建立了一个返聘退休科学家,给予软件公司税收优惠的规 aspires to join the world’s scientific powers (see article). 划。费尔南德斯夫人延续了她丈夫的政策,建立了科学革新部,并任命一 Argentina would like to as well. The place is proud of its three 位生物学家利诺·巴拉尼奥出任部长。她还为致力于新产品开发的公司增加 Nobel science prizes—the largest haul of any Latin American 了奖助金。 nation—even if the most recent was awarded in 1984. But many researchers fled in the 1990s, when budgets were slashed. Now Many of the Kirchners’ critics were sceptical, seeing the ministry the government is trying to attract them back, and to encourage either as a political marketing ploy or as a soft touch for lobbyists younger talent to consider a scientific career. seeking unjustified subsidies. But the strategy seems to be 南非可不是唯一一个立志于成为世界级科技强国的中等收入国家(见文 working. With help from the Inter-American Development Bank 章) ,阿根廷紧随其后。阿根廷人为他们曾三次获得诺贝尔科技奖而倍感自 the government has, since 2004, lured back 854 expatriate 豪——任何拉美国家都没获过如此殊荣——即使最近一次获奖是在 1984 scientists. It has done so by providing new laboratories and 年。二十世纪九十年代,科研经费大为缩减,许多研究人员流失到了国外。 equipment for them, moving their families, and forking out extra 现在,阿政府正想方设法让他们回国,并鼓励有天分的年轻人考虑从事科 money for their salaries. As a consequence, according to Dr 学事业。 Barañao, Argentine researchers have published 179 articles in leading journals in the past decade, compared with just 30 in the When Néstor Kirchner, the predecessor and late husband of the 1990s. current president, Cristina Fernández, took office in 2003, 许多针对基什内尔的评论家们持怀疑态度,他们认为科学革新部要么是个 Argentina was spending just 0.41% of its GDP on research and 政治营销部,要么是个被说客所用到处拉赞助的工具罢了。不过这项政策 development (R&D). Now, that figure is 0.64%. (Brazil, by 似乎见到了成效。在中美洲发展银行的帮助下,阿政府从 2004 年开始, comparison, spent 0.95% in 2003 and 1.18% in 2009.) Kirchner 通过为他们提供新的实验室和设备、将它们的家人迁回国内以及提供工资《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 74. The Economist Economist Study Association 以外的奖金这些政策,一共吸引了 854 位移居国外的科学家回国。结果, 支付成本并且聘请律师来保护专利,为信息技术企业寻找拥有博士学位的 据部长巴拉尼奥说,在过去的十年里,阿根廷的科学家们在顶尖杂志上发 员工充当了猎头的角色,并且还将为这些新员工支付一部分工资。这些项 表了 179 篇论文,而 1990 年代只发表了 30 篇。 目中没有一项被指责有腐败的成分。 Most of the returners are academics. But commercial science has Whether all this activity will have the effect of stimulating benefited, too. Indear, a joint public-private high-tech industry, as Ms Fernández hopes, remains to be seen. biotechnology-research centre based in Santa Fe, recently Argentine scientists are happy to take taxpayers’ money but worked out how to transfer a gene for drought resistance from according to Luis Dambra, a professor at the IAE business school sunflowers to crops such as maize, soyabeans and wheat. That in Buenos Aires, they look down their noses at the idea of can increase yields in droughts by up to 40%. And the actually getting their hands dirty by going into industry. Mr government has also doled out $54m in grants for the Dambra, though, says industry is equally to blame. In 2009 (the development of products that include coagulant factors to treat latest year for which data are available), only 21% of Argentine haemophilia, transgenic cattle which secrete valuable hormones R&D was paid for by the private sector, compared with 44% of in their milk, and better ways of probing for oil deposits. Brazil’s. Firms that might recruit academic scientists often do not 大部分回国的人都是学者,不过,因此也惠及了商业学。近期,在圣达菲 see the point. Even those that do may struggle to accommodate (Santa Fe)的一家公私联合的生物科技研究中心成功的解决了怎样将抗 people with a non-commercial background into the business 旱基因从向日葵转移到玉米、大豆和小麦这类农作物上。这种技术能使旱 world. 地作物的产量提高 40%。阿政府在其他方面的产品改进上也给出了$54, 这一系列的做法是否能够刺激高新产业的发展——正如费尔南德斯夫人所 000,000 的政府奖助,项目包括研究治疗血友病的凝血剂、在牛奶中分 期望的那样——还要等着瞧。 阿根廷的科学家们很高兴的花着纳税人的钱, 泌珍贵荷尔蒙的转基因奶牛,以及勘探油田的先进方法。 不过据 Luis Dambra( 路易斯·戴姆巴拉) ,这位布宜诺斯艾利斯( 阿首都) IAE 商业的教授表示他们对这些政策嗤之以鼻,实际上这些都是在将科学 Help for high-tech innovation comes in other forms, too. The 家们引向商业化,玷污了他们的双手。然而,戴夫人认为,一旦商业化了 state offers, for example, to pay the cost of patenting inventions 就等于背负了骂名。2009 年(在可得数据中的最近的一年) ,在阿,只有 in foreign jurisdictions and of hiring lawyers to defend those 21%的研发经费支付给了私人部门,而巴西有 44%。聘用学术的科学家 patents. It also acts as a headhunter for information-technology 的企业往往忽视了这一点, 就算是看到了这一点的公司也作出了很多努力, firms seeking employees with PhDs, and will pay part of the 使这些没有商业背景的人员适应商业领域的工作。 salaries of such recruits. None of these programmes has faced allegations of corruption. Attitudes can change, of course. In the 1980s many British 对于高新科技创新的扶持真是方式甚多,比如说,政府为在外国申请专利 academics were as snobbish about commerce as Argentina’s are《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 75. The Economist Economist Study Association now. These days, Britain’s top universities are gung-ho for spin-outs and the revenue they can provide. But it takes time and consistent policy to make such changes and Argentina is notorious for sudden alterations in the political weather. That makes the country a perilous place to invest, whatever the current climate. 当然,态度是可以变化的。在二十世纪八十年代,许多英国学者不屑于从 事商业,和阿根廷现在的情况一样。但现在,英国的顶尖大学都为他们的 衍生公司及其可提供的收益而干劲十足。但是阿根廷需要时间和一贯的政 策来做出如此改变,不过阿政府早已因其政策的变化莫测而声名狼藉。这 使得阿根廷成为一个投资风险很大的国家,不论其现在的政策刮得是什么 风。 翻译者:徐莉钦&毕硕《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 76. The Economist Economist Study Association Joan Didion memoir ter she had finished writing but before it was published—was t 琼·迪丹的回忆录 hat her daughter Quintana Roo was dead, too, undone by a se ries of health problems that ended with acute pancreatitis at t Kind of blue he age of 39. 幽兰操 这就是为什么《不可思议的思想》(2005)成为了畅销书。迪丹的丈夫 Ruminating on being the last to survive 患心脏病近 40 年,在他去世的后一年,迪丹对死亡的基本谬论进行了深 生命最后的沉思 思。她认为时间总是让一些普通的人生变得非同寻常。在她写完这本书, 却 还 没 来 得 及 发 表 的 时 候 , 她 女 儿 Quintana Roo 突 然 去 世 了 , FEW memoirs are worth reading. When they are nottawdry op Quintana Roo 一直受着一系列身体问题的折磨,最后终于在 39 岁的时 portunities to air grievances, settle scores orrationalise errors, 候因为急性胰腺炎离开了人世。这是这本书并未提及的恐惧。 they tend to be tales of adversity with atriumphant twist. This is what makes Joan Didion unique. Her non-fiction has always With “Blue Nights”, her first book since the earlier memoir, Ms considered grand matters from a personal perspective, witho Didion conveys the loneliness of living on without her child or ut making herself the centre of the story. Even when she write husband, and the indignities of ageing. For decades her life h s about the hard drama of her own life, such as the sudden de ad been charmed, even more so than she had realised. But in ath of her husband followed by the death of her only daughter, a matter of months in 2003 everything turned unspeakably gri her stories manage to be larger than her own grief. m. “It is horrible to see oneself die without children,” she quot 值得一读的回忆录并不多。只要不是借着回忆录的名义来表达怨恨,解释 es Napoleon as saying. This is a difficult book, but not a senti 错误,那么回忆录就会是一部缠绕着喜悦的灾难故事。琼·迪丹的回忆录 mental one. Ms Didion has a remarkable ability to consider he 的独特之处就在于此。她在非小说类作品中描述宏伟壮观的事物时,并没 r own feelings without letting her prose turn soggy with emoti 有把她自己作为故事的中心,而是从个人的角度出发。即便是在描写她个 on. 人生活的最困难时候,例如她丈夫的突然离世,以及后来她唯一女儿的去 自早前的回忆录之后,“蓝色之夜”是迪丹的第一本书。她表达了失去孩子 世。但她并不以她个人的情绪为出发,而着重于故事的本身。 和丈夫的痛苦和孤独, 以及对于变老的轻蔑。 她几十年来的生命都很幸福, 甚至比她自己意识到的更幸福。但是在 2003 年的时候,所有的一切急转 This is how a memoir like “The Year of Magical Thinking” (200 直下瞬间崩塌。 “最可怕的是看着一个人死去却没有孩子陪在身旁,”她 5) became a bestseller. In writing about the year that followe 引用了拿破仑的话说道。虽然这是一本充满艰辛的书,但并不伤感。迪丹 d the fatal heart attack of John Gregory Dunne, her husband o 自有一种了不起的本事,那就是在表达自己的情感之时,能够避免使自己 f nearly 40 years, Ms Didion used her experience to reflect on 的小说过分矫情。 the fundamental absurdity of death. She movingly considered the way time makes the ordinary gifts of life extraordinary. Th “Today would be her wedding anniversary,” she writes at the e unmentioned horror of the book—an event that took place af beginning, and then evokes the scene of her daughter’s summ《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 77. The Economist Economist Study Association er wedding in Manhattan in 2003. There were cucumber and w (Natasha Richardson, Patti Smith)。虽然这样会使得整本回忆录 atercress sandwiches, and a peach-coloured cake from Payard. 有些分散, 但是迪丹有时会利用这些细节来表示她对女儿生活古怪的担心 Quintana wore stephanotis in her hair. Ms Didion returns to t (她收养的女儿经常抑郁)。有时也对对她自己的天真表示惊讶。“我不 hese details in later chapters—the stephanotis, the cake—usin 知道有多少父母认为他们是成功的父母,”她写道。一想到她自己是一个 g this repetition to illustrate the way she is haunted by memor 母亲,她的伤口不可抑制的更加溃烂。 ies. After a lifetime of travel and dynamism, she now appears anchored in New York by the detritus of life. Her drawers and Now 75, Ms Didion’s gaze is turned backwards. Her recollectio cupboards are filled with mementoes (her husband’s raincoats, ns meander and loop back, interrupted only by distressing que her daughter’s baby teeth) which serve “only to make clear h stions that no one is left to answer (“Did I get this all wrong?”) ow inadequately I appreciated the moment when it was here.” . Often these questions consider the choices she made as a m “今天是她的结婚纪念日,”她在一开头写道,然后回忆起了 2003 年夏天 other (“Was I always the problem?”) and her own increasing f 她女儿在曼哈顿举行的婚礼。 那里有黄瓜, 西洋菜三明治, 和来自 Payard railty (“What if I can never again locate the words that work?”) 的桃色蛋糕。Quintana 头上戴着千金子藤。迪丹在后面几章回忆起了这 . With “Blue Nights”, named for the intense and portentous be 些场景的细节,她用这样的一种重复写法来表达她被回忆困扰的忧虑。 一 auty of the dying light on a summer day, Ms Didion has transl 生都在奔波中,她现在在纽约担任主持人。她的屉子里橱柜里都装满着那 ated the sad hum of her thoughts into a profound meditation 些令人的回忆的东西(她丈夫的雨衣,她女儿的乳齿)。 on mortality. The result aches with a wisdom that feels dreadf ully earned. The appeal of Ms Didion has long been her insight mixed with 现在迪丹已经 75 岁了,她把注意力放在了回忆上面。她在回忆的河流中 something glamorous; she is both of this world and a world ap 蜿蜒而行,不时的被一些令人痛苦却又没人回答的问题困扰(我做错了 art. Memories here are cluttered with brand names (Chanel, C 吗?)。这些问题经常是关于她成为母亲的那个选择(我才是问题所在 orvette, the Ritz) and glittering friends (Natasha Richardson, P 吗?),以及她持续增长的脆弱(如果我永远找不到那些有意义的词语怎 atti Smith). The effect can be distracting, but Ms Didion somet 么办?)。“蓝色之夜”以夏日里微弱光线中那暗示性的的美而命名。迪丹 imes uses these details to worry over the oddity of Quintana’s 把她对死亡的痛苦化为了一种深刻的沉思。 life (her adopted daughter often struggled with depression), a nd also to marvel at her own naivety. “I do not know many 译者:占涵希&尹茜 people who think they have succeeded as parents,” she write s. In regarding herself as a mother, her remorse festers unche cked. 迪丹的魅力在于她那富有魅力的独特视野。 她既是这个世界又是世界的一 部分。这部分的回忆录充满了各种奢侈品牌(香奈儿,克尔维特牌汽车, 豪 华 旅 馆 ) , 还 有 那 些 光 鲜 亮 丽 的 朋 友 们《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 78. The Economist Economist Study Association What ate dinosaurs? of Diplodocus and Stegosaurus are the stuff of cliché. Science, 谁吃了恐龙? though, tries to look beyond the obvious, and at this year’s meeting of the Society of Vertebrate Palaeontology, held in Las Old crocs Vegas, some of the speakers asked whether the top predators of the Mesozoic era really were all dinosaurs. Their conclusion was 远古巨鳄 “no”. Another group of reptiles, until recently neglected, were Even in their heyday, dinosaurs were not quite as also important carnivores. And it is a group that is still around dominant as popular myth makes them out to be today: the crocodiles. 即使是在全盛时期,恐龙也没有像普遍传闻的那样有统治地位,这使得他 对于“谁吃了恐龙”这一问题,有一个很明显的答案,即“另一个恐龙”。在 们逐渐淡出视野 史前怪物爱好者的印象中,像暴龙和异龙这样的兽脚亚目食肉龙总是显得 很巨大,而对于(这些爱好者来说)谈论起诸如梁龙和剑龙这样的(怪物) 的攻击已经是陈词滥调了。科学家们试图查明事实,今年在拉斯维加斯举 办的世界脊椎动物古生物学研讨会上,一些学者问道,是否中世纪处于食 物链顶端的食肉动物都是恐龙?他们的结论是否定的。另一类一直被忽视 的爬行类生物也是那时很重要的食肉动物之一。并且现在它们依然存在, 那就是鳄鱼。 That the past role of crocodiles (or, strictly, crocodilians, since they came in many sizes and shapes, not all of which resemble the modern animals) has been underestimated was suggested a few years ago by Paul Sereno. Dr Sereno, a palaeontologist at the University of Chicago, uncovered a crocodile-dominated ecosystem from about 100m years ago (the middle of the Cretaceous period), in what is now north Africa. Besides water-dwelling giants similar to (though much bigger than) ONE answer to the question, “What ate dinosaurs?” is, obviously, today’s animals, he found a range of forms including vegetarians “Other dinosaurs.” Theropod predators like Tyrannosaurus and and species that ran on elongated legs—more like dogs than Allosaurus loom large in the imagination of every lover of crocodiles. That discovery has prompted other fossil hunters to prehistoric monsters, and their animatronic fights with the likes look elsewhere. As a result, even the well-studied rocks of North《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 79. The Economist Economist Study Association America are revealing that dinosaurs did not have it all their own 和 Mr Boyd 在检测一具在犹他州挖掘出来的幼年白垩纪早期鸟脚亚目恐 way in the ecosystems of the Mesozoic—as Stephanie 龙骨架时,他们注意到了骨架上一个很像现代恐龙在捕食所遭受到的刺痛 Drumheller of the University of Iowa and Clint Boyd of the 和撕裂的可疑的痕迹。根据更仔细的检查,他们发现其中有一列鳄鱼牙齿 University of Texas at Austin explained to the meeting. 的痕迹在上面。 几年前 Paul Sereno 教授提出,过去鳄鱼所扮演的角色(或者严格意义上 讲, 是直到他们的尺寸和外形变得和现在一样之前) 一直被低估了。 Sereno Crocodile tears 是芝加哥大学的古生物专家,他说,早在 100m 年以前(白垩纪中期), 鳄鱼的眼泪 大概是在北非地区,鳄鱼就处于统治者的位置。除了认为那时鳄鱼在水下 It was not a large tooth. Its size suggests the animal which made 世界就像今天一样(尽管要大得多)称雄称霸以外,他还认为那是鳄鱼的 it was no more than a metre and a half (about 5 feet) long. Such (捕食)范围还包括了素食动物以及依存于长腿的动物——这更像是(杂 a predator would have been unable to take on an adult 食的)狗而不是鳄鱼。这一观点促使另外那些顽固不化的学者找到了新的 ornithopod. Nevertheless, this tooth is the first unarguable proof 研究方向。结果,甚至是北美那些(古生物)研究重量级学者都透露,恐 that crocodilians did indeed snack on dinosaurs. Moreover, it 龙在中世纪时期的确没有按照他们(恐龙)的意愿生存——正如美国衣阿 helps to confirm suspicions that the other crocodile-bite-like 华州立大学的 Stephanie Drumheller 和德克萨斯州立大学的 Clint marks that Ms Drumheller and Mr Boyd have discovered really Boyd 在英国奥斯汀会议上解释的那样。 are what they look like. By combining that with an analysis of the whole site, the two researchers argue that what they have The Cretaceous equivalent of zebra and antelopes—the victim discovered is a dinosaur nesting ground that was being raided by species in every wildlife documentary about the dramas of the crocodilians. African savannah—were herbivorous dinosaurs called 齿印并不大, 它的尺寸这是一只体长不会超过一尺半 (大约 5 步) 的动物。 ornithopods. Frequently, these were taken by theropods. But not 这样的一只食肉动物将没有呈现出猎杀成年鸟脚龙的能力。然而,这个牙 always. When Ms Drumheller and Mr Boyd examined the bones of 印是第一个毋庸置疑的证据来证明鳄鱼确实是以恐龙为食。除此之外,这 juvenile upper-Cretaceous ornithopods dug up in Utah they saw 个齿印也帮助确认了 Ms Drumheller 和 Mr Boyd 之前发现的其他一些 marks on one skeleton that looked suspiciously like those 疑似鳄鱼齿印。通过结合全部遗迹的分析报告,这两个学者声称他们已经 modern crocodiles inflict when biting and tearing at their prey. 发现一处恐龙巢穴区遭到了鳄鱼的突然袭击。 On examining these marks more closely, they found a crocodilian tooth stuck in one of them. Such suspicions have been aroused before. Other sites in Utah 白垩纪时期相当于斑马和领养一样的一类食草类恐龙叫做鸟脚亚目恐龙 are known to be dinosaur nesting grounds, since eggs are found ——这样的种类在关于非洲大草原剧目的纪录片中几乎都是受害者。事实 there. Crocodilian bones frequently turn up at such sites. Ms 上, 他们被兽脚亚目食肉龙所取代, 但不是每次都这样。 Ms Drumheller 当 Drumheller and Mr Boyd, however, seem to have nailed the《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 80. The Economist Economist Study Association connection down. Juvenile dinosaurs, at least, were indeed the 小的食肉类恐龙——已经被 Drumheller 和 Boyd 区分出来的随时可能鳄 prey of crocodilians. But what about adults? 鱼吃掉的落单者。但是 Dr Lockley 和 Dr Lucas 意识到,画面中好像少 类似这样的质疑以前也被提出过。直到在那发现许多蛋的遗迹之前,犹他 了些什么,当他们寻找大的食肉恐龙的痕迹时,他们什么也没有发现。 另外一处地方因为恐龙巢穴区而出名。 鳄鱼骨骼频繁的在这些地方被发现。 然而,Ms Drumheller 和 Mr Boyd 似乎降低了对于这种联系的关注。 至 That is ecologically absurd. Unless, of course, the top predator of 少幼年恐龙确实遭到了鳄鱼的捕杀,但是成年恐龙呢? the system—the one that could hunt down adult ornithopods—was not a dinosaur at all. And, when Dr Lockley More than mere morsels and Dr Lucas re-examined the tracks they found that that was 不仅仅是一点点 exactly what was going on. Instead of theropod footmarks, they To investigate that question, Martin Lockley at the University of found those of crocodilians. More than a quarter of the places Colorado, Denver, and Spencer Lucas of the New Mexico Museum where the dinosaur freeway surfaces have yielded signs of crocs. of Natural History and Science, turned to one of the most famous And they were big: sometimes more than four metres long. That fossil phenomena on the planet—the dinosaur freeway that runs is certainly large enough to take on an adult ornithopod. through Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas and Oklahoma. This collection of tracks, scattered over several sites of the same age 那简直是生态学上的无稽之谈。当然,除非对于处在生态系统顶端的食肉 along the coast of an inland sea, is thought to mark an ancient 动物——惟一能够猎杀成年鸟脚龙的动物——不再是恐龙, Lockley 和 当 migration route. The traces of more than 1,380 individual Lucas 博士重新检查那处痕迹的时候,他们发现的确是这样的。他们发现 animals can be distinguished. Most, but not all, were ornithopods. 的不是肉食恐龙的足迹,而是鳄鱼的。超过四分之三的恐龙迁徙痕迹表明 Some were small carnivorous dinosaurs—the sort that might pick 被鳄鱼所猎杀。他们很庞大:有时超过四英尺长。那样的话确实足够去猎 off young stragglers in the way that the crocodilians identified by 杀一头成年恐龙了。 Ms Drumheller and Mr Boyd did. But there is, Dr Lockley and Dr Lucas realised, something missing from the picture. When they Such megacrocs, then, could easily have acted as top predators looked for traces of big predatory dinosaurs, they found none. in this ecosystem. But that does not completely explain the 为了调查这个问题,来自于丹佛科罗拉多大学的 Martin Lockley 和新墨 absence of theropod tracks. Modern migrating herbivores fall 西哥州社会与自然历史博物馆的 Spencer Lucas 开始(将目光)转向这 victim to many sorts of carnivore: big cats, wolves and hyenas, 个星球上最著名的关于化石的现象之一——穿越科罗拉多州、 新墨西哥州、 to name but three. The marshy conditions of the dinosaur 堪萨斯州以及俄克拉荷马州的恐龙迁徙痕迹。大量的痕迹,在同一时代分 freeway (the reason its footprints formed, and have survived) 散在沿海岸许多处,被认为是标记出了古代迁移路程。超过 1380 种个体 may, though, have favoured crocodilians over predators that had 动物的痕迹被区分出来。其中,大部分是鸟脚龙的,但不是全部。一些是 evolved on drier land. In that sort of environment even a big theropod would constantly have been looking over its shoulder.《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 81. The Economist Economist Study Association Perhaps the real reason why they did not plant their footprints on Historical salvage the dinosaur freeway is that they might have ended up as prey, 搜寻历史 as well. Ghost stories 这样的鳄鱼,在整个生态系统中很轻松的扮演着顶级杀手的角色。但是这 仍然不能解释(成年)食肉恐龙痕迹缺失(的现象)。在现代,很多迁徙 历史故事 A trawl through an historic underbelly 类食草动物成为了食肉类动物的牺牲品:猫、狼、土狗等等.恐龙在沼泽环 搜寻历史的点点滴滴 境中踩出了帮助食肉动物中的鳄类进化到干燥路地上的路。(因此)在这 种环境下即使是巨型食肉龙也一定会仔细的关注着自己的同伴。也许他们 HISTORY, most people reckon, is what you can remember about 之所以在迁徙中遮掩他们的足迹就是因为他们也会以(另一种生物的)牺 the past. But the forgotten bits can be the most interesting ones. 牲品而告终。 Norman Davies terms his new book, “Vanished Kingdoms”, a 翻译:汤旭武&杨舒雅 work of “historical salvage” in which he brings to the surface long-sunken wrecks of European history. 多数人认为历史只是人们关于过去的记忆,但被遗忘的部分可能是最有趣 的。诺曼·戴维斯[1]将他的新书《消失的王国》描述为一部叙述历史的作 品。在本书中,他将欧洲历史中那些被长久遗忘在深处的残骸从奔腾的时 间长河中打捞出来,为读者一一呈现。 The variety is striking: the Byzantine empire lasted more than 1,000 years; the Republic of Carpatho-Ukraine barely 24 hours. Some, like Aragon or the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, grew into empires. Others (Eire and Estonia) started life by breaking away from someone else’s empire. The timeline ranges from the fall of Rome to the present. Mr Davies is not the sort of historian who sticks to books. His magpie‘s eye for detail includes not just quirks of the past but first-hand reportage worthy of a fine travel writer. 历 史 的 差 异 是 惊 人 的 : 拜 占 庭 帝 国 拥 有 1000 多 年 的 历 史 , 而 Carpatho-Ukraine 共和国仅持续 24 小时。 有些王国慢慢壮大成为帝国, 如阿拉贡、立陶宛大公国,而有些国家如爱尔兰、爱沙尼亚,则是在帝国《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 82. The Economist Economist Study Association 的分裂过程中产生。时间跨度从罗马的没落到现在。戴维斯先生并不是严 的树木却总是很棘手。 格依照书本的历史学家。作为一名收藏者,他不仅致力于历史轶事的收集, 还关注作为一名优秀游记作家的第一手报道。 Even his fans would not say that Mr Davies’s forte is details; some niggling errors deserve speedy correction. His pen Some wrecks have sunk deeper than others. Most readers will sometimes runs away with him: it is silly to call a language have a vague idea about Prussia (or Borussia as he calls it). Few “gobbledygook” (as he terms Estonian) just because you don’t will know of the Visigoths’kingdom of Tolosa, centred understand it. But like Mr Davies’s other works, “Vanished approximately on modern Toulouse, or an ancient English Kingdoms” gives full rein to his historical imagination and domain in what is now modern Scotland, so completely forgotten enthusiasms, imparting a powerful sense of places lost in time. that even locals have never heard of it. All across Europe ghosts will bless him for telling their 有些“历史遗迹”被掩埋很深。很多读者对普鲁士(或者他笔下的门兴)只 long-forgotten stories. 有模糊的概念。 很少人会知道西哥特王国的托洛萨位于现在的图卢兹附近。 戴维斯先生的粉丝认为他的长处不是细节描写,那么一些细微的错误应该 而古代英格兰所在地则为现在的苏格兰,这些都已被完全遗忘,甚至连当 得到及时校正。有时他言不由衷,他说:仅仅因为你的无法理解而将语言 地人都从来没有听说过。 说成是“官样文章”是不可理喻的(正如他定位爱沙尼亚) 。但是和戴维斯先 生其他作品一样, 《消失的王国》充分展示了他的历史想象力和热情,将这 Mr Davies is well known as an iconoclast who punctures the 些消失在时间中的故事传授给读者。所有欧洲的先灵们将会护佑他讲述长 comforting myths of countries (like England or Russia) that 期被遗忘的故事。 history has blessed with conquest, expansion and linguistic dominance. He enjoys highlighting the stories of the [1] 诺曼·戴维斯 1939 年生于英格兰。曾获波兰克拉科夫大学博士学位, underdogs—be they the Welsh or the Estonians. All empires fall 原伦敦大学东欧斯拉夫学院教授,在伦敦大学执教多年,主要研究方向为 and all states eventually fail; the end of the United Kingdom“is a 中欧与东欧史。现任牛津大学沃尔夫森学院研究员、教授。主要著作: 《起 foregone conclusion”. That is a provocative point, but predictions 义在 1944 年:华沙之战》 (Rising 44: The Battle for Warsaw) ,被 without dates are easy. All trees fall; it is spotting the diseased 《纽约时报》评为 2004 年度 100 本最畅销书之一。 《上帝的操场:波兰 ones that is tricky. 史》 (Gods Playground: A History of Poland)《欧洲的心脏:波兰当 ; 戴维斯先生作为有名的反传统斗士,他勇于颠覆充满征服、扩张、语言侵 代中的历史》 (Heart of Europe: The Past in Polands Present)《不 ; 略的国家历史(例如英国或俄罗斯) 。他喜欢关注被征服者的故事,如威尔 列颠群岛:一部历史》 (The Isles: A History)《微观世界:一个中欧城 ; 士或爱沙尼亚。所有的帝国终将堙没,所有的国家终将消逝,英国也终将 市的肖像》 (Microcosm: Portrait of a Central European City) 。 会走向一个不可避免的结局。这是一种挑衅的观点,但是没有日期的预言 译者:钮成拓&马腾博 总是没有难度。正如所有的树木都会衰亡,然而寻找那些因为患病而死亡《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 83. The Economist Economist Study Association Vincent van Gogh 名的电影便是《渴望生活(梵高传)。但是由于一部篇幅巨大引人入胜的 》 文森特•梵•高 传记的诞生,梵•高对冲突的追求似乎更为显著。 Paint a palette blue and grey The book describes a lonely, bad- tempered alcoholic, a syphilitic who liked to bite the hands that fed him. It in no way 灰暗色调的调色盘 devalues the quality of the painting, of course, but this portrait In a new biography of van Gogh the devil is in the detail by Steven Naifeh and Gregory White Smith, two prolific authors 新版梵高传中揭露了更多细节 who seem to like writing about drunken artists (Jackson Pollock VINCENT VAN GOGH was an earlier subject) demolishes any romance that still seemed made for a attaches to the artist’s life. bittersweet Hollywood 在这部作品里展现了一个孤独,坏脾气的酒鬼,一个梅毒病人喜欢要喂他 biopic. The dazzling colours 饭人的手。这当然不影响其画作的品质,但是此画在史蒂夫•纳非和格雷 and dashing brushstrokes 戈里•怀特•史密斯(2 位多产作家爱好描写醉酒艺术家,如早期主题中的 of his sunflowers, 杰克逊•波洛克)的笔下却不见艺术家生活中浪漫的痕迹。 cornfields and cypress trees are among the most The book is composed, like a pointillist painting, of thousands of familiar and loved works in factual details. Nothing is sacrificed to curtail its length; the only the history of art, fetching concession is to remove the footnotes from the text. (There are record-breaking sums in enough of these to fill 5,000 typewritten pages and they are all auction rooms. The to be found on the book’s website.) But the story has a inevitable biopic was called momentum that justifies the time it takes to tell it, and the “Lust for Life”. But as an authors conclude by making a plausible case for van Gogh’s enormous and engrossing accidental death rather than his suicide. No gun was found; the new biography shows, van fatal bullet entered the body at the wrong angle and seemed to Gogh’s lust for conflict was have been fired from too far away for the wound to have been strongest of all. self-inflicted. Strong circumstantial evidence suggests that van 文森特•梵•高似乎造就了一部苦乐参半的好莱坞传记电影。 绚烂夺目的色 Gogh was the victim of schoolboy bullies. 彩和充满生气的笔法绘出的向日葵, 麦田还有柏树成为了艺术史上最为人 整部书就犹如一幅点彩派画家的作品,由无数的细节交织而成。文章并没 熟知与喜爱的作品,并且在拍卖会上的(成交)价格也屡创新高。这部著 有为了缩短篇幅而作出删减,唯一的让步只是将文中的脚注移除(这些足《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 84. The Economist Economist Study Association 以填满 5000 页的纸页的脚注如今均可在书的网站上浏览到)。但是书中 instead. Van Gogh was eventually converted to the idea of 亦包含了一个随着时间的增长才能日益清晰的势头, 以及作者在结束时为 colour by Rembrandt, and he started to paint bright orange and 证明梵高是意外死亡而非自杀而举出的似乎合理的证据。 当时梵高的周边 brown sunflowers in Paris in 1886, hoping they might impress a 并没有发现枪,那颗致命的子弹进入身体的角度也不对,并且伤口应该是 particularly voluptuous Italian model. His conversion to colour 由较远距离射入的子弹造成而非自杀。 强有力的旁证表明梵高或许是被一 and landscape was not complete, however, until he went south 个男孩的子弹误杀了。 to Arles in 1888. 梵高最初的作品是用黑炭笔描画的荷兰农民。“在我画画的时候,脑海中 Van Gogh’s earliest job with an art dealer took him to The Hague, 的图像非常清晰。”他说道。西奥看了那些卖不出去的画作后,建议梵高 and then Paris and London, but his youthful passion was to be 改为创作色彩鲜明的风景画。梵高最终接受了伦勃朗的色彩理念,并且于 heard as a preacher. His first sermon was delivered, in 1886 年开始在巴黎用鲜艳的橙色和棕色来画向日葵,希望它们能打动一 heavily-accented English, by the River Thames in Petersham, 位性感的意大利模特。 梵高在色调以及绘画对象上的转变直到 1888 年他 but congregations did not respond to him. Only when he 前往南方的阿尔勒之后才变得彻底。 accepted that he would not become a minister, as his father had been, did he turn to art. Since he earned no money van Gogh When he persuaded Paul Gauguin to join him in Arles, van Gogh simply assumed that he was entitled to a share of his brother believed that they would inspire each other’s work. It was a Theo’s salary, demanding 150 francs a month from him at a time tragic delusion. Gauguin, the more forceful personality, wanted when the wage of a French schoolteacher was 75 francs a to draw in the studio, van Gogh to paint in the open air. Van month. Gogh was quick, Gauguin was languid. Gauguin worked from 梵高最早的工作是和一位艺术品商人一同前往海牙,之后去了巴黎和伦 the imagination and memory, van Gogh surrendered himself to 敦,但是年轻的他梦想着成为一名牧师。他的第一次布道是用重口音的英 nature. The Arlesiennes adored Gauguin and ignored van Gogh. 语在泰晤士河畔的 Petersham 进行的,不过教众并没有对他进行回应。 The two painters quarrelled bitterly. When Gauguin announced 直到他接受了自己无法成为他父亲那样的牧师的事实之后, 他才投身于艺 he was leaving for Paris on December 23rd 1889, van Gogh 术。由于一直没赚到钱,梵高便认为这是要他去分享弟弟西奥的工资, 梵 reacted by slashing his own left ear, slicing through to the jaw. 高每月一次性要了 150 法郎,而那时法国的教师每个月的收入只有 75 Confined to asylums as a psychotic, he did not stop painting, but 法郎。 he was dead of a bullet wound only 18 months later, not long after he sold his first painting. He was 37. Decades passed Van Gogh first concentrated on dark charcoal drawings of Dutch before it was widely appreciated he was a genius. It has taken peasants. “When I draw I see clearly,” he said. Theo saw clearly even longer to fully understand that his life was a disaster. that they did not sell, and suggested colourful landscapes 当梵高在阿尔勒说服高更加入他的时候, 他坚信他们彼此能给对方带来灵《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 85. The Economist Economist Study Association 感。可这却是个悲剧的念想, 高更追求强烈的个性,他希望在画室中作画, Fundamental physics 基础物理学 而梵高偏向在室外创作。梵高是急性子,而高更却总是慢吞吞的。高更从 想象和记忆中获取灵感,梵高则是让自身沉醉于自然。阿尔勒城的姑娘们 Big bang 仰慕高更忽视梵高。这导致了两位画家间激烈的争吵。在 1889 年,高更 宣布自己将于 12 月 23 日前往巴黎,梵高割了自己一只耳朵作为回应。 物理大爆炸 之后,梵高被当做神经病被关进了精神病院,但此间他也不曾停止画画, Popular physics has enjoyed a new-found regard. Now 只不过就在 18 个月之后,梵高死于一颗子弹。他辞世时年仅 37 岁。经 comes a brave attempt to inject mathematics into an 过了几十年或是几百年以后,他的绘画天才才开始为世人所赞颂。不过人 otherwise fashionable subject 们用了更长的时间才完全理解为什么梵高的人生是一场灾难。 科普物理进入新领域,将数学接入其他时尚课题的尝试正在路上 PREVIOUSLY the preserve of dusty, tweed-jacketed academics, 翻译:姚欣悦&李晓敏 physics has enjoyed a surprising popular renaissance over the past few years. 以前尘封满面,刻板固执的物理旧貌换新颜,近几年声誉满载。 In America Michio Kaku, a string theorist, has penned several successful books and wowed television and radio audiences with his presentations on esoteric subjects such as the existence of wormholes and the possibility of alien life. 在美国,弦论专家加来纪雄写了几部不错的书,并通过电视和广播发表演 讲, 成功激起了人们对虫洞以及外星人是否存在诸类神马问题的兴趣。 注: 【 虫洞连接黑洞和白洞,在黑洞与白洞之间传送物质。 】 In Britain Brian Cox, a former pop star whose music helped propel Tony Blair to power, has become the front man for physics, which recently regained its status as a popular subject in British classrooms, an effect many attribute to Mr Cox’s astonishing appeal. 布莱恩·考克斯此次成为了英国物理学的先锋,他曾是流行歌手,并且他的 音乐曾经助力布莱尔执政。凭借考克斯先生惊人的魅力,物理重拾了江湖《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 86. The Economist Economist Study Association 地位,成为课堂上最受欢迎的学科。 尽管如此,那批书还是因为人们只买不读致使声誉受损。相比之下,考克 斯在他与福肖的合著中探究“为什么 E=mc2?”,并通篇大胆地搅和进了 Mr Cox, a particle physicist, is well-known as the presenter of two 一堆数学。 BBC television series that have attracted millions of viewers (a third series will be aired next year) and as a bestselling author The difficulties in explaining physics without using maths are and public speaker. longstanding. 粒子物理学家考克斯是两档 BBC 电视系列片的著名主持人, 那两档节目吸 阐述物理时不引用数学带来的各种困难长期存在着。 引了成百万的观看者(第三系列将于明年播出) ,当然,他也是畅销书作家 和公共演说家。 Einstein mused, “The eternal mystery of the world is its comprehensibility,” and “the fact that it is comprehensible is a His latest book, “The Quantum Universe”, which he co-wrote with miracle.” Jeff Forshaw of the University of Manchester, breaks the rules of 爱因斯坦沉思道:“世界永恒的神秘在于它的可理解性”和“事实上,它能被 popular science-writing that were established over two decades 理解是一个奇迹” ago by Stephen Hawking, who launched the modern genre with his famous book, “A Brief History of Time”. Yet the language in which the world is described is that of maths, 他的新作是与曼彻斯特大学的杰夫•福肖合著的《量子宇宙》 ,这本书打破 a relatively sound grasp of which is needed to comprehend the 了斯蒂芬•霍金二十几年前建立的科普写作框架,霍金曾凭他的著作《时间 difficulties that physicists are trying to resolve as well as the 简史》开启了现代流派的大门。 possible solutions. 然而,能表述世界的语言是数学,数学对物理学家试图解决的难题的理解, Mr Hawking’s literary success was ascribed to his eschewing 以及解决难题可能使用的方法皆有相对正确的把握。 equations. One of his editors warned him that sales of the book would be halved by every equation he included; Mr Hawking Mr Cox has secured a large fan base with his boyish good looks, inserted just one, E=mc2, and, even then, the volume acquired a his happy turns of phrase and his knack for presenting complex sorry reputation for being bought but not read. By contrast, Mr ideas using simple analogies. He also admirably shies away from Cox, whose previous book with Mr Forshaw investigated “Why dumbing down. “The Quantum Universe” is not a dry does E=mc2?” (2009), has bravely sloshed a generous slug of undergraduate text book, but nor is it a particularly easy read. mathematics throughout his texts. 考克斯凭借他的大男孩的帅气、欢快的语调、以及用简单类推来阐述复杂 霍金文学上的成功归根于他回避了方程式。他的一个编辑曾警告他,每增 理论的技巧赢得大批粉丝。他还令人羡慕地避免了浅薄化。 《量子宇宙》 既 加一个方程式他的书的销量就会减半; 霍金只加进了一个方程式, E=mc2。 不是一本枯燥的科普教本,但也不是特容易读懂的书。《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 87. The Economist Economist Study Association slog that leads to higher pleasures. The subject matter is hard. Quantum mechanics, which describes 然而,引用一些晦涩的内容是否可以让有些读者有实际参与进来,并产生 in subatomic detail a shadowy world in which cats can be 更大的快感还有待商榷。 simultaneously alive and dead, is notoriously difficult to grasp. 这本书的主题很难定。量子力学是亚原子里的一个朦胧世界,在这个世界 For non-sloggers alternative routes are offered: Messrs Cox and 中猫可以同时活着和死去,这个众所周知的难以理解。 Forshaw use clockfaces to illustrate how particles interact with one another, a drawing of how guitar strings twang and a Its experiments yield bizarre results that can be explained only photograph of a vibrating drum. A diagram, rather than an by embracing the maths that describe them, and its theories equation, is used to explain one promising theory of how matter make outrageous predictions (such as the existence of acquires mass, a question that experiments on the Large Hadron antimatter) that have nevertheless later been verified. Messrs Collider at CERN, the European particle-physics laboratory Cox and Forshaw say they have included the maths “mainly nearGeneva, will hopefully soon answer. because it allows us to really explain why things are the way they 对于没有参与的人来说也有其他途径:考克斯和福肖用钟面来说明粒子如 are. Without it, we should have to resort to the physicist-guru 何相互作用,用一幅画图来说明吉他如何发声,用一张照片来说明鼓如何 mentality whereby we pluck profundities out of thin air, and 振动。用一张图表而不是方程式解释物质如何获取质量这一可预见性的理 neither author would be comfortable with guru status.” 论。物质如何获得质量的实验,正在日内瓦附近的欧洲粒子物理研究所大 量子力学的实验得出了奇怪的、只能用数学来阐述的结果,并且量子力学 型强子碰撞性加速装置中进行,并有望很快找到答案。 的理论也得出了出人意料的推测(例如反物质的存在) ,该推测后来得到了 证实。 考克斯和福肖说他们引用数学“主要是因为数学提供了能揭示事物本 The authors have wisely chosen to leaven their tome with 身的工具。如果没有它,我们就要求助物理大师的智力,借此我们才能想 amusing tales of dysfunctional characters among scholars who 方设法理解其中深意,对此我们都感到不舒服。” developed quantum mechanics in the 1920s and beyond, as well as with accounts of the philosophical struggles with which they That stance might comfort the authors, but to many readers they grappled and the occasional earthy aside. will nonetheless seem to pluck equations out of thin air. 两位作者选择用1920年以及之后研究量子力学的学者的轶事、 与他们相悖 这一立场可能对作者来说不错,但对许多读者来说,他们似乎还是得纠结 的哲学条框以及偶尔粗俗朴素的话题来提高人们对这本砖头一样的书的兴 于理解各个方程式。 趣。 Yet their decision to include some of the hard stuff leaves open Where the subject matter is a trifle dull, Messrs Cox and Forshaw the possibility that some readers might actually engage in the acknowledge it: of Heinrich Kayser, who a century ago completed《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 88. The Economist Economist Study Association a six-volume reference book documenting the spectral lines Nikolaus Pevsner generated by every known element, they observe, “He must 尼古拉斯·佩夫斯纳 have been great fun at dinner parties.” And they make some sweeping generalisations about their colleagues who pore over Set in stone equations, “Physicists are very lazy, and they would not go to all this trouble unless it saved time in the long run.” 永恒的经典 如果题材有少许沉闷,考克斯和福肖都会告知读者,例如一个世纪前完成 A guide to all that 了六卷记录下每个已知元素发出光谱线的参考书的海因里希•凯瑟。 他们对 一本传记解读人生 钻研方程式的同事往往一概而论,评论道:“他在宴会上一定很开心。”“物 理学家很懒,除非长远来看会节省时间,否则他们不会自己找麻烦去顾及 “THE BUILDINGS OF ENGLAND” series—a solid shelf-full of 所有难题。“ topographical guides to the country’s architecture, arranged by county—has been a fondly regarded part of British middle-class Whether or not readers of “The Quantum Universe” will follow all life for 60 years. Its wide range and its format of close the maths, the authors’ love for their subject shines through the description of architectural detail and building style in succinct, book. “There is no better demonstration of the power of the sometimes sly, entries were the invention of one man, Sir scientific method than quantum theory,” they write. That may be Nikolaus Pevsner, who conceived the project and then so, but physicists all over the world, Messrs Cox and Forshaw researched and wrote the first 32 volumes, from included, are longing for the next breakthrough that will “Nottinghamshire” (1951) to “Staffordshire” (1974). supersede the claim. Hopes are pinned on experiments currently 在过去六十年里, 《英国建筑》系列书籍已经成为了英国中产阶级生活里 under way at CERN that may force physicists to rethink their 的良伴。 这套书籍可以摆满整整一个书架, 它讲述的是英国各个郡的建筑, understanding of the universe, and inspire Messrs Cox and 从这个角度来看,这可以算作是一本建筑地方志的启蒙读物。这套书涵盖 Forshaw to write their next book—equations and all. 很广,在内容组织上对建筑物的细节描写细致,而对建筑的风格上的阐释 无论《量子宇宙》的读者是否明白书中所有的数学,两位作者对主题的热 就相对简洁甚至让人不易觉察,以上这一切都来自一人之手——尼古拉 爱都洋溢全书。他们写道:“没有比量子理论更好、更能展示科学的力量的 斯·佩夫斯纳爵士。他首先构思了这套书的计划,然后经过调查研究,写 方法了。”也许的确是这样,但世界各地的物理学家们,包括考克斯和福肖 出了《英国建筑》系列的前 32 册----从“诺丁汉郡”(1951)到“斯塔福 在内,都渴望在未来有所突破。希望都寄托在目前正在欧洲粒子物理研究 德郡”(1974)。 所进行的实验上,这些实验可能会使物理学家们重新思考他们对宇宙的认 识,并激发考克斯和福肖写出下一本书——方程式以及一切。 Pevsner’s purview was then extended to Scotland and Wales, 翻译:沈鱼&刘拓 and in the 1990s a similar series on the buildings of Ireland was《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 89. The Economist Economist Study Association launched. The influence of the original series of 46 volumes on 受人尊敬和敬仰的专家,著名的社会人士的身份离开了人世。传记作家苏 British heritage bodies and planning commissions is still strong, 西·哈瑞斯最新的长篇传记作品有着细致的索引,在托马斯·曼和风格主义 such that the question, “Is it in Pevsner?” remains an indicator 后,甚至出现了简·曼斯费尔德这样的娱乐明星。这部详尽的传记中告诉 of the aesthetic worth of a church, country house, town hall, 我们,尼古拉斯爵士把毕生精力都集中在了那些高高低低的文化和社会景 school or factory. 观建筑物上。 在这之后,佩夫斯纳的目光就扩展到了苏格兰和威尔士,二十世纪九十年 代曾有一本类似的描写爱尔兰建筑的书籍问世(并非佩夫斯纳的作品)。 Ms Harries’s life of Pevsner traces the great changes in artistic 尽管如此,《英国建筑》系列中最初的 46 册对英国文化遗产和规划委员 and social attitudes in post-war Britain. She notes the 会的影响依然很大。所以,像 “这些在佩夫斯纳的书里出现过吗?” 这样 development of ideas, from humanism to the Zeitgeist, and 的问题正说明了一座教堂,一栋乡间别墅,一幢市政大楼,一所学校或工 provides factual accounts of anti-Jewish laws in Germany in the 厂是否具有美学价值和他们有没有在《英国建筑》这套书里被提到过有直 1930s. The book also offers glimpses of anti-academic 接关系。 snobberies in 1950s England among those who held to an aristocratic, connoisseurial view of art history. Thoroughly Nikolaus Pevsner, who was born in 1902 into a cultured, documented from Pevsner’s letters and working papers, from bourgeois Jewish family in Leipzig, was forced to abandon a the personal diaries he kept since adolescence, and from promising academic career as an art historian in Göttingen in interviews with his friends and students, the book is full of 1933. He sought exile in England, and went on to achieve telling observations. The reader sees Pevsner, who was interned success as a writer, journalist, lecturer and broadcaster, dying by the British as an enemy alien in 1940, on a housing estate in in 1983 as Sir Nikolaus, a much-honoured, Festschrift-laden Huyton outside Liverpool, reading Sir Walter Scott’s member of the scholarly establishment and a recognisable, “Kenilworth” and working on his own book, “An Outline of even parodiable, public figure. His life provides a focus for European Architecture”, which was completed during numerous cultural and social observations, both high and low: fire-watching in the Blitz and published in 1942. in the meticulous index to Susie Harries’s new full-length 哈瑞斯与佩夫斯纳接触的那段时间也见证了战后英国文化和社会方面巨 biography “Jayne Mansfield” comes after “Thomas Mann” and 大的变化。她注意到了文化从人文精神到时代精神的演变之流,并且对 “Mannerism”. 20 世纪三十年代德国的反犹太人法也做了恰如其分的真实描写。这本书 尼古拉斯·佩夫斯纳爵士 1902 年出生在德国莱比锡城一个有教养的中产 还让我们大致了解了 20 世纪五十年代反学术势利的潮流,那个时候,许 阶级犹太人家庭。1933 年,他被迫放弃在哥廷根的艺术史学家这一颇有 多国家认为艺术史是贵族们、行家里手们的历史,而英国在此列。这本书 前途的学术工作。之后他选择流亡英国,先后做过作家、记者、演讲家以 里有些部分就完全从佩夫斯纳的信件,一些底稿,他私人的日记(他从小 及广播评论员并获得了巨大的成功。1983 年,尼古拉斯爵士带着学术界 就有写日记的习惯)以及他和一些友人和学生的聊天记录引用过来的, 因《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 90. The Economist Economist Study Association 此,这本书就显得相当真切。哈瑞斯认为佩夫斯纳作为敌侨,1940 年被 的喜爱, 对建筑艺术的社会影响的深刻信念以及对自己奇异的写作风格的 英国当局拘禁在利物浦外的小镇海顿的一块居民区,这段时间,他仍读着 自信----这样的写作风格让建筑分析带有个人色彩,比如在写作时应用一 沃尔特·司考特爵士的小说《凯尼尔沃斯》,并专注自己于著作《欧洲建 些富有个人情感的形容词:惊巧、奇特、呆板、令人不舒服。 筑纲要》----这本书在英法对德国闪电战袭击他国袖手旁观的时候就已完 成,并在 1942 年正式出版。 Ms Harries addresses the question of Pevsner’s Nazi sympathies by putting in a chronological context his early admiration for The letters written from his early field trips for “The Buildings of theories of Germanness and medievalism in pre-war Germany, England” in the 1950s document his struggles with motor cars his pro-Nazi academic referees and his and his wife Lola’s and A-roads. He led a lonely life with overnight stays in dismal practical decision not to tell their children they were Jewish. She provincial hotels, writing up his notes every evening on an exposes his scholarly purblindness and political naivety and his unsteady bedside table amid the fumes of a paraffin heater, late realisation of the true nature of German National Socialism. sustained by sandwiches brought from home and the occasional Almost the last reference he ever made in print to the Third treat of fish and chips and orangeade. The personal slant of his Reich was a critique of its buildings in the Architectural Review commentaries may well have been influenced by these heroic in 1941. journeys, as well as by the limited technologies of a typewriter, 在哈瑞斯这本书里, 佩夫斯纳对纳粹的认同以编年体的方式被属实的记录 longhand notes and a collection of old slides that he brought 下来了,比如,佩夫斯纳早年对纳粹主义的崇拜,战前对中世纪精神的敬 with him from Germany. Readers learn too of his dislike of Dr 仰,对纳粹学术审查制度的支持,以及他和他妻子劳拉不告诉他们孩子是 Johnson and his fondness for the ice lolly, his deeply held belief 犹太人的决定等等。在书中,她还谈及佩夫斯纳学术上的盲点,政治上的 in the social role of the artist and his quirky writing style, which 天真,以及后来其对纳粹主义本质的认识。佩斯夫纳最后一次在纸质媒体 gave a personal weight to architectural analysis with adjectives, 上谈到纳粹德国是在 1941 年《建筑博览》杂志上的一篇对德国建筑的评 such as “quaint”, “rum”, “dull” and “unpleasant”. 论。 从五十年代佩夫斯纳为写《英国的建筑》而去实地考察期间的信件中可以 看出这位学者奔波在各个郡之间的艰辛。那段日子,他过着独孤的生活, Ms Harries also writes sympathetically about his marriage (his 白天考察,晚上住在破败的旅馆里,就着一张不稳的床头桌,周身是石蜡 wife whom he married in 1923, had to endure separation, 加热器冒出的浓烟,他就在这样的环境下把白天的笔记编撰成文,饿了就 isolation in England, her husband’s romantic infatuations and 以从家里带来的三明治充饥,偶尔也会吃一顿鱼、薯条、橘子汁的大餐。 his nagging letters). And she takes Pevsner’s part staunchly 在这段传奇般的考察经历,打字机硬件条件的限制,他写在速记便条上的 against sniping critics that ranged from John Betjeman, a British 内容,以及从德国带来的旧幻灯片的共同影响下,他的评论里面带有明显 poet laureate, to David Watkin, an architectural historian and 的个人倾向。读者在书中也能了解佩夫斯纳对约翰逊博士的厌恶,对冰棒 one-time student of Pevsner’s, chronicling feuds carried out in《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 91. The Economist Economist Study Association unsigned reviews and in the letters pages of the Times Literary Supplement. 哈瑞斯也在这本传记中以同情的态度描写了佩夫斯纳的婚姻生活 (他的妻 子于 1923 年嫁给佩夫斯纳,她不得不的忍受两人的分离,孤独的痛苦, 聊以丈夫的爱意浓浓,情话叨叨的书信自慰。上文说过,佩夫斯纳作为敌 侨被拘禁)。而且,哈瑞斯也坚定的站在佩斯夫纳的这边。反击那些尖锐 的批评——从英国的桂冠诗人约翰·贝杰曼到建筑史家大卫·沃特金(他曾 经还是佩夫斯纳的学生),也反对把一些未署名评论和《泰晤士报文化增 刊》刊登来信中与佩夫斯纳发生的矛盾不和作为传记的一部分。 Pevsner’s many publications are summarised and assessed. This is a long book, crammed with detail, but its chapters are short and well-paced. And Ms Harries lightens her account with humorous anecdotes, in-jokes, even a touch of slapstick in her descriptions of the bespectacled scholar in old-fashioned clothes tangling with butlers and the owners of country houses. Throughout this long and varied life, there is never any doubt about Ms Harries’s seriousness of purpose and her engagement with her subject. 关于佩夫斯纳传记很多都属于那种总结或者评价性的, 但这本传记却是一 部长篇著作,它由很多小章节组成,到处都是细节方面的描写,但是每一 章节又恰到好处的短。此外,哈瑞斯为了活泼其描写,在书中插入许多趣 闻,业内笑话,甚至把一个穿着过时衣服,戴着眼镜的学者和别墅的主人 和总管之间的故事写得有点闹剧的味道。 但通观书中佩夫斯纳一生的多彩 斑斓的生活,哈瑞斯的写作目的和写作本身是严肃的。 翻译者:罗智&靳浩然《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 92. The Economist Economist Study Association 贿赂 性对 28 个国家(占全球贸易与投资的 80%)进行了排名.中俄两国得分最 Bribery 低,排在巨额边缘.荷兰和瑞士的公司被视为最干净的,比利时﹑德国﹑日 本紧随其后.不出所料,涉及政府合同的工程和产业受污染最为严重. Supply side Disappointingly, the latest version of the index shows no 供给方 significant change since the previous edition in 2008. That A new index of bribe-payers highlights slow progress in comes despite some big shifts in national legislation and curbing sleaze international anti-bribery activity. Recent prosecutions under 新发布的贿赂者指数高光打亮了对伤风败俗的整治不够给力 America’s Foreign Corrupt Practices Act have sent culprits to jail for record terms. The former boss of an America-based BRIBERY involves two parties, not one. Lambasting officials in telecoms firm, Joel Esquenazi, received a 15-year jail sentence poor countries for their sticky fingers is usually easier (and less on October 25th for paying nearly $900,000 in bribes to Haiti’s open to legal challenge) than investigating those who suborn national telephone company. An accomplice received a them. seven-year sentence. 贿赂涉及双方而非单方责任.痛斥贫穷国家官员们的腐败行为比调查那些 令人失望的是最新版本的指数与 2008 年以来发布的老版本相比并无显 贿赂他们的局外人要容易的多(也是对法律较轻的公然挑战). 著变化.尽管国内立法机关几次大幅换人﹑国际进行反贿赂活动,还是出 But on November 2nd Transparency International, a Berlin-based campaigning group, published an updated version of its Bribe Payers Index. Based on questions to 3,000 businessmen, this ranks 28 countries (accounting for 80% of global trade and investment) by the perceived likelihood of their companies paying bribes. Russia and China scored worst by a hefty margin. Dutch and Swiss companies were seen as the cleanest, with Belgium, Germany and Japan close behind. Construction and industries involving government contracts, unsurprisingly, were the dirtiest. 然而,11 月 2 号,建于柏林的活动组织——透明国际(TI)发布了最新的行 贿者指数.基于对 3000 位商人的询问,该指数根据各公司明显的行贿可能《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 93. The Economist Economist Study Association 现了这样的局面.近来,在美国的 《反海外腐败法》下,受检举入狱的凡人创 International complains that Germany, Japan and Saudi Arabia 下记录.10 月 25 日,美国一家电信公司的前老板 Joel Esquenazi 因对海 have not yet ratified a UN convention on bribery. 21 of the 38 地国家电话公司行贿近 90 万美元被判入狱 15 年.他的一位同谋被判 7 年. states that signed the OECD anti-bribery convention, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey, show Britain has introduced a tough anti-bribery law too. Laurence “little or no enforcement” of it. Attempts to get the G20 group of Cockcroft, a British economist who specialises in anti-bribery the world’s biggest economies to tighten rules on transparency campaigns, says the dozen recent prosecutions by the Serious and bribery have also bogged down. The agenda for a summit Fraud Office belie its reputation for feebleness: “it’s a huge this week in Cannes was dominated by avoiding an immediate improvement on five years ago.” economic meltdown, rather than dealing, as the incumbent 英国也引进了一套严厉的反贿赂法.英国一位专攻反贿赂行为的经济学家 French presidency initially hoped, with financial mischief. Laurence Cockcroft 表示重大欺诈案件调查局近来的大量检举丝毫没有 但实际进步就少多了.TI 控诉德国﹑日本和沙特阿拉伯仍未签署联合国的 为保名誉而有所隐瞒.他说:"相对于 5 年前,这是一个巨大的进步." 反贿赂协议.38 个国家中已签署 OECD 反贿赂协定的 21 个国家,包括澳 大利亚﹑巴西﹑加拿大﹑墨西哥﹑南非和土耳其,仅仅显示了"极少或压 Even countries best known as sources and recipients of corrupt 根没有执行"协定规定.企图靠集合世界最大的经济体的 20 国集团紧固在 payments are trying to meet international standards, at least on 透明度和贿赂上的规则,该行为也被停滞.本周在戛纳举行的峰会,如法国 paper. Saudi Arabia has set up an anti-corruption agency. China, 现任总统之前所想,其主要目的是,避免金融危机而不是解决金融中的恶 India and Indonesia have passed anti-bribery laws. So too has 作剧。 Russia, in what most observers think is an attempt to ensure membership of the World Trade Organisation and support a Robert Palmer of Global Witness, a London-based campaigning pending application to join the Organisation for Economic group, says that bribery indices, though welcome, fail to Co-operation and Development (OECD), a Paris-based highlight the crucial role of intermediaries: banks that handle think-tank for advanced industrialised countries. corrupt payments and lawyers who advise clients how to get 甚至一些广为认知的行贿发起国和贿赂接收国也在试着达到国际标准,至 around anti-bribery laws—for example by making “facilitation 少在名义上是这样.沙特阿拉伯建立了反贪局.中国﹑印度和印尼通过了 payments” which are a common loophole. He and other 反贿赂法.俄国也这么做了,但大多数观察家认为俄国这么做是企图确保 campaigners want new rules to make companies record 世 贸 组 织 成 员 身 份 , 并 为 加 入 经 济 合 作 与 发 展 组 织 (OECD) 取 得 支 payments to governments publicly and to publish accounts 持.OECD 是设在巴黎的发达工业化国家的智囊团. reporting their activity country by country. Robert Palmer 是伦敦的活动组织"全球目击者"里的成员,他说,贿赂指 But practical progress has been a lot thinner. Transparency 数虽然受欢迎,但没能强调中间人的关键作用:比如处理贿赂款的银行和《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 94. The Economist Economist Study Association 建议客户如何避开反贿赂法的律师从中赚取"好处费"就是一个常见的漏 WikiLeaks 洞.Robert Palmer 和其他成员希望有新规章出台,要求公司公开记录对 维基解密 政府的支出,并公布他们的银行帐号,以报告他们在各国的活动. Out of time and money But perhaps the biggest pressure is likely to come from shareholder ire. Next year Transparency International will 时间钱财两空 publish an updated ranking of big global companies, Julian Assange loses an appeal while WikiLeaks runs out highlighting their use of offshore finance and their perceived of cash willingness to pay bribes. A plunging share price may be the 朱利安·阿桑奇祸不单行 biggest disincentive to the corrupters of the weak and greedy. Single to Stockholm, 然而,最大的压力可能来自股东们的怒气.明年,TI 将发布最新的国际大公 economy class 司排名,突出他们在离岸金融上的开销和他们广为人知的行贿意愿.在这 独自一人去斯德哥尔摩,经济 个意志力薄弱和人性贪婪的时代,也许股价骤降才是抑制腐败的最大因 舱 素. 翻译:张薇&李晓敏 NO LONGER quite the cause célèbre he once was, Julian Assange was in court without his celebrity backers on November 2nd, when he failed in an appeal against his extradition to Sweden, where prosecutors want to question him on sex-assault charges. The WikiLeaks whistle-blowing site he founded is in trouble too: it has suspended most of its operations as it grapples with banks and payment-card companies that block its transactions. 朱利安·阿格桑不再是重大事件的制造者,他十一月二日在没有重量级支《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 95. The Economist Economist Study Association 持者的情况下输掉一场反对引渡他到瑞典的上诉,在瑞典的检察官希望以 his treatment of two Swedish female fans in August last year. 性骚扰的罪名起诉他。他建立的专门进行披露揭秘的维基解密网站也遇到 This dented his reputation and prompted the allegations: one of 了麻烦:由于与一些银行和支付卡公司有过节,其冻结了与维基解密的交 rape, two of sexual assault, and one of coercion. Mr Assange’s 易,导致了网站的大部分项目运营暂停。 supporters believe that the furor is a smokescreen and that Sweden is acting as a tool of American influence; some even say Mr Assange’s lawyers had challenged a European Arrest he may end up eventually being extradited there. Warrant (EAW), normally enforced automatically, on four main 除非阿桑奇被批准上诉,否则他将在十天内被送到瑞典。在那他将有机会 grounds. Two High Court judges firmly rejected them all in 解释他在去年 8 月对两名瑞典女粉丝实施的行为。 这一行为不仅败坏了他 terms that leave little room for a further appeal. They did not 的名声,也促使了指控的产生:一项强奸,两项性骚扰和一项胁迫。阿桑 accept that the Swedish prosecutor was the wrong judicial 奇的支持者认为这场骚动只是烟幕,瑞典是受美国摆布的傀儡;其他有些 authority to order an extradition; their judgment also said it did 人甚至说他可能会最终被引渡到那里。 not matter that Mr Assange has not yet been accused of an offence in Sweden. Nor did it accept that the events being Mr Assange has been living under strict bail conditions with a investigated were too minor, or too poorly described, to be an wealthy backer since his arrest in December. He appeared at offence in England too (this “dual criminality” test is a central the tent-dwellers’ protest outside St Paul’s Cathedral last month, feature of the EAW). It also rejected the argument that but has had diminishing success in drumming up wider support extradition was disproportionate to the potential crime for his cause. A blunder in September, when the unedited involved. versions of purloined American diplomatic cables were released 阿桑奇先生的律师们挑战了欧洲逮捕法令, 在四种主要情况下这项法令通 thanks to a stray password, brought a temporary flurry of 常自动强制执行。两个高等法院的法官坚决否决所有的条款,没有为进一 publicity. 步的上诉留下空间。律师们还声称瑞典检察官不具有要求引渡的司法权 阿格桑在去年 12 月被捕以来依靠富有的靠山在安排周密的保释条件下生 威,对此说法,法官们不予接受司法权威。法官们的判决表明,阿桑奇先 活。他出现在圣保罗大教堂外举行的帐篷居民抗议活动中,但这他并没有 生是否在瑞典被控诉是无关紧要的。同样不能被法官接受的说法还有诸 让指控他的诉讼案得到更广泛的支持。九月份,维基解密披露了一份失窃 如, 被调查的事件性质过于轻微或没有详尽描述以至于在英国构不成犯罪 的未经编辑的美国外交电报,这位阿桑奇带来了短暂而轰动的宣传效应。 等(“双重犯罪”测试是欧洲逮捕法令的核心特征)。此外,律师们争论“由 这份外交电报的泄漏是由一串零散的密码流出造成的。 于并未查实的罪而引渡是不恰当”,也被法官们否决了。 But WikiLeaks as a publishing venture is dormant: in a Unless he gains leave to appeal, Mr Assange will be sent to statement on October 23rd it said it would concentrate its Sweden within ten days. There he will have a chance to explain efforts on fighting what it calls a “financial blockade”: a boycott《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 96. The Economist Economist Study Association by banks and other financial institutions that has severely Pilgrimages hampered its fund-raising. An Icelandic company, DataCell, 朝圣之行 which tried to handle credit card payments for WikiLeaks, complains of sweeping sanctions against it. These prevent it Hot steps dealing with its regular customers. WikiLeaks and DataCell have also lodged a joint antitrust complaint at the European 步步炙热 Commission, saying that Visa and MasterCard are unlawfully Pilgrimages are booming. Time to make them less colluding against them (Visa says vaguely it suspends payments destructive “if appropriate” when a merchant breaks “applicable laws”). 朝圣者的数目在激增。是时候约束一下他们的行为了 但是维基解密作为出版业中的冒险者还是暂停了其运营:在 10 月 23 号 的一份声明中, 其声称要全力以赴对抗“金融封锁”——这是一场对一些银 Ganges water, reverently 行和其他金融机构严重阻碍维基解密的集资活动而发起的抗议。 试图为维 abused 基解密处理信用卡支付的冰岛的企业 DataCell 抱怨其被全面制裁,这妨 恒河水,因为虔诚而受害 碍了它对正常客户的处理。维基解密和 DataCell 联名对欧盟理事会提出 了反垄断提议,宣称外事达卡(Master Card)和维士卡(Visa)公司非 TIME was when religious 法勾结起来对付他们(维士卡含糊地说当一个商家违背了“现行法律”时, travellers had light 它怀疑交易“是否是适合”的)。 footprints. The hero of “Way of a Pilgrim”, a Life may not be much fun for Mr Assange. But being a lawyer for 19th-century Russian WikiLeaks is a most interesting job. spiritual classic, asked 这样的生活对于阿桑奇来说可能是了然无趣的。 但是当他的律师也许是现 only for dry bread and 在一项最有趣的工作了。 seasonal farm work as he roamed the tsar’s realms, 翻译者:王赫&马彦天 dreaming of the day when he (and perhaps a few thousand others in a typical year) would embark for Jerusalem. 那还是长途跋涉的朝圣不那么流行的时候。 《朝圣者之路》 (一部 19 世纪 的俄罗斯宗教著作)的主人公漫步到了沙皇的领土上,向人祈求干面包和 做一些季节性的农活,梦想着有朝一日(通常一年内还可能有其他几千个《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 97. The Economist Economist Study Association 像他一样的人)能步入耶路撒冷。 在西方世界,天主教徒常常会去英国的沃尔辛汉姆或风靡至今的西班牙圣 地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉的中世纪朝圣地等地方朝拜,他们可以通过选择一 Now around 100m people a year make a pilgrimage, according 部分行程或支付“碳补偿费”补偿坐飞机对生态造成的破坏来减轻自己的 to the Alliance of Religions and Conservation, a body that this 罪恶感。相比而言,有些地方的朝圣却带来难以缓和的副作用, 比如印度。 week summoned representatives of the world’s main faiths to 印度教徒朝圣时会聚集在恒河岸边(尤其因“大壶节”这样的节日产生的巡 the pure air of Assisi, an Italian hilltop town, to see how religious 游圈),届时会吸引数千万人前往朝觐。这些人将同时成为污染这条圣河 travel might be made more environmentally benign. As well as 的为害者和受害者。 the Assisi authorities, delegates at this week’s gathering came from pilgrimage destinations such as the Sikh holy city of At one such festival last year in Haridwar, the state authorities Amritsar, the Armenian sacred capital of Echmiadzin, Haifa in used newspaper advertisements to implore the faithful not to Israel, revered by Bahais, and Kano in Nigeria, an important use detergent or soap when bathing. In the river’s holiest place, centre for Muslims. Varanasi, the permanent population has soared in the last 30 “世界宗教与资源保护联盟”本周在空气清新的意大利山顶城镇阿西西市 years to around 3m, and a chronic pollution problem (mostly 召开了由世界各大宗教代表出席的会议, 共同探讨如何降低朝圣旅游对环 caused by human detritus )becomes uncontrollable whenever 境的影响。而根据该组织的统计,如今全球每年约有一亿人前往朝圣。 包 electricity fails and sewage treatment plants break 括阿西西市本身在内,这些与会代表来自全球各大宗教圣地,如锡克教的 down—though that does not seem to deter pilgrims from 圣城阿姆利则(印度城市) 、亚美尼亚圣都埃奇米亚津、巴哈教徒崇拜的 bathing in waters they see as eternally sacred. 以色列港市海法以及位于尼日利亚的穆斯林重要集中地卡诺。 去年在印度赫尔德瓦尔一个和“大壶节”类似的节日里, 国家政府通过报刊 广告恳请教徒们不要在朝圣沐浴时使用洗涤剂或肥皂。 恒河中最为圣洁之 In the Western world, a Catholic making for a shrine like 地瓦腊纳西,常住人口在过去 30 年内飙升至三百万左右。电力中断、排 Walsingham in England or the (still hugely popular) medieval 污厂崩溃这些事时有发生,这让当地的长期人口问题(大多产生于人口分 pilgrimage site of Santiago de Compostela in Spain can assuage 散)难以控制。尽管如此,朝圣者们仍然会前往被他们视为永久圣洁的河 his conscience by walking part of the way or paying for a 水中沐浴。 “carbon offset” to balance the ecological costs of air travel. It is much harder to mitigate the side-effects of piety in places like The Saudi authorities are building a $2 billion railway in Mecca India, where Hindu gatherings on the banks of the Ganges to whisk pilgrims making the Hajj (a once-in-a-lifetime duty for (especially a peripatetic cycle of festivals known as KumbhMela) Muslims) from one holy site to another, replacing thousands of attract tens of millions of people. These folk become both buses (one caught fire on November 1st, killing a British couple). victims and perpetrators of the sacred river’s pollution. But few other destinations can afford that kind of provision. As《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 98. The Economist Economist Study Association with mass tourism, pilgrims risk destroying the destinations they love. 沙特政府正出资 20 亿美元在圣城麦加建造一条铁路以取代上千辆的公交 车(其中一辆公交在今年 11 月 1 日着火,导致一对英国夫妻丧生) ,并 希望借此减少从在各圣地之间跋涉朝圣的信徒 (穆斯林教徒一生一次的义 务) 。但是造得起这类设施的地方着实不多。就像集体旅游那样,这些朝 圣者很可能毁了他们热爱的圣地。 翻译者:沈骜&靳浩然《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 99. The Economist Economist Study Association Conservatives in the West e entering politics and, with his gun-loving and government-hat 西部保守派 ing conservatism, rising to become president of the state Senat e. Last year he became famous as the author of SB1070, Arizo Bully meets Nice Guy na’s harsh law against illegal immigrants, whom he blames for most things. Sometimes called a “shadow governor”, he has be 铁血警官对战温润君子 come a sort of brand statement for Arizona politics. A bitter state Senate race in Arizona has wider ramificati 罗素·皮尔斯说话态度顽固强硬,是一位来自亚利桑那州梅萨市的摩门教共 ons 和党人。梅萨处在郊区,与菲尼克斯毗邻,是个摩门教徒聚集地,同时也 且看亚利桑那州这场激烈的参议院选举,其影响绝对不容小觑 是保守主义者的堡垒。皮尔斯先生喜欢佩戴鼓起的皮带扣、穿印有美国国 旗的衬衫。步入政坛并晋升为州参议院主席之前,他喜欢摆弄枪支、厌恶 政府,身上带着典型的保守主义的味道,是众所周知的铁腕警长乔·阿派欧 的副手。去年,他作为 SB1070 法(译者注: 《支持执法和建立安全社区 法》也称“反移民法”)的发起者而一举成名,他对非法移民深恶痛绝,这 部美国最严厉的法案也将矛头直指非法移民。 如今, 时常被称为“影子州长” 的他在某种程度上已经成为亚利桑那州政治的品牌宣言。 For many of Mesa’s conservative Mormons, not to mention the rest of the population, all this started seeming excessive. So, e arlier this year, Mesans invoked a rarely used and petitioned to recall Mr Pearce. Mobilised by Randy Parraz, a Latino activist, v olunteers stood on Mesa’s sun-scorched streets and collected si gnatures. Mr Pearce called them anarchists, and worse. The vol unteers called Mr Pearce a sociopath, and worse. The petition s Immigrants not welcome at the Pearce office ucceeded, and Mr Pearce became the first Arizona state legislat RUSSELL PEARCE is a tough-talking Mormon Republican from M or ever to be recalled. esa, Arizona, a bedroom community near Phoenix that was sett 即使对于许多梅萨地区的保守摩门教徒来说,这些做法看起来也显得有些 led by Mormons and is a conservative stronghold. He likes to w 过了,就更别说其他人的反应了。所以今年年初的时候。梅萨人援引了一 ear bulging belt buckles and American-flag shirts. He was a de 条极少使用的亚利桑那州权限并且向政府请愿要求撤销皮尔斯的职务。受 puty of the notoriously forceful county sheriff, Joe Arpaio, befor 到拉丁美洲活动家兰迪·帕拉兹的鼓动,志愿者们在梅萨酷热的街道上静《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 100. The Economist Economist Study Association 站,收集签名。皮尔斯先生称这些人是反政府主义者,而且比反政府主义 了他的腹股沟。事后警方进行了调查,但找不出任何有用的线索。“这是第 者更加恶劣。而志愿者们则还击道,皮尔斯先生是个反社会者,而且比反 三世界的做法”刘易斯先生回忆这件事情的时候如此表态。他把这件事情看 社会者更加残暴。他们的请愿书最终奏效,皮尔斯先生也就成了亚利桑那 成是对他的一种“邀战”并宣布参与竞选。 州第一位被撤销的州立法委员。 It has become a bizarre contest. Like Mr Pearce, Mr Lewis is a This means that he now has to stand in a special election on No Mormon and a conservative Republican. “This is a Mormon fami vember 8th to keep his seat. The big question was who in this t ly feud,” says Dave Richins, a Mesa councilman (and also Morm ight-knit community would dare to run against him. In July Jerr on and Republican, like most local leaders). What makes it odd y Lewis, an accountant who now manages a chain of charter sc is that “I don’t disagree with Pearce on much,” Mr Lewis insists. hools, began publicly contemplating a run. (Arizona also has a They both want small government and low taxes, and the rest politician called Dean Martin, but that is coincidence.) Mr Lewis of it. With so much agreement, a debate between the two cand had never sought public office and had not even signed the rec idates was unbearably boring. all petition. But he felt that Mr Pearce gave his district an unde 这样一来这场竞争的气氛就有点诡异了。和皮尔斯一样,刘易斯也是一名 served reputation for meanness. 摩门教保守共和党人。梅萨议员戴夫声评论道:“这是一场摩门教徒的内 这就意味着他现在必须参加十一月八号的一场补选来保住自己的席位。现 斗。”(像大多数当地的领导者一样,戴夫也是摩门教共和党人。 )但是让 在最大的问题是,在这个一片祥和的社区里,有谁敢跟他竞争。7 月,杰 这场斗争显得愈发古怪的是,刘易斯强调:“我在许多方面都能与皮尔斯达 里·刘易斯——一个目前经营着多所特许学校的会计师,开始公开策划竞 成共识。”他俩都希望缩减政府规模和降低税收,以及诸如此类等。既然已 选。 (在亚利桑那州也有一个政客叫迪安·马丁但那仅仅是巧合而已。 )刘易 经有如此多的共鸣,两位候选人之间的争论顿时显得分外乏味。 斯此前从未谋求过公职,也未曾在之前的要求撤销皮尔斯职务的请愿书上 面签字。但是他认为皮尔斯使他所在的街区冤枉地担上了“卑鄙”的恶名。 If politics really is about “issues”, the differences come down to tiny nuances on education funding (Mr Lewis, a former teacher, One morning in July Mr Lewis and his brother-in-law were on a values schools more than Mr Pearce, which Mr Pearce naturally 14-mile jog (Mr Lewis likes to run marathons) when a pick-up t denies.) Immigration, perhaps surprisingly, is a subject that M ruck passed them and a man hurled a padlock into Mr Lewis’s g r Lewis prefers not even to mention. Yes, he would have oppos roin. The police investigated, but could prove nothing. “This is t ed SB1070, but for the parts of it that are excessive, not becau hird-world,” Mr Lewis remembers thinking. He saw the event as se it is wrong in principle. a calling and declared his candidacy. 如果政见真的是个“议题”,那么这两位竞选者之间的细微分歧也就能见于 七月的一天清晨,当刘易斯先生和他的姐夫正在进行 14 英里慢跑的时候 教育事业拨款(刘易斯先生曾是一名教师,他比皮尔斯更加看重教育;当 (刘易斯先生喜欢跑马拉松) 一辆轻运客车从旁经过并扔出一个挂锁击中 , 然,皮尔斯先生显然不承认这一点。 )至于移民问题,刘易斯先生则出乎意《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 101. The Economist Economist Study Association 料的不愿提及。没错,他反对过 SB1070 法,但也只是反对其中太过分的 over his modest house, and he displays endless patience in exp 部分,并不是针对什么原则性的问题。 laining the stark Mormon iconography of the paintings on his w alls. Mesa’s Mormon elders become very discreet when explaining w 所以在这场竞选当中语调和风格都显得举足轻重,已是俨然一副国家政治 hat is really going on. With two Mormons running for president 的势态了。同时也是二者区别所在。不同于皮尔斯先生的好斗,刘易斯先 of the United States, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day S 生把温润君子的风范发挥到了极致。刘易斯此时 55 岁,已是知天命之年 aints, much distrusted by mainstream Christians, is currently t 但仍仪表堂堂,像是从诺曼·罗克韦尔的画作中走出来的人物那般精神抖擞 aking great pains to prove that it stays out of politics. But its th 而不失体面。他曾是童子军队长,并前往香港传教(他以能说粤语的八个 eology values families (and thus frowns on the separation, thro 音节为傲) ,同时他还是棒球教练。因为他总是发笑所以他的说话方式有些 ugh deportation or incarceration, of illegal family members). Its 奇怪。下个月他将迎来第七个孙子,简朴的房子里到处是为万圣节准备的 image is inclusive and global. Mr Pearce and SB1070 have “da 南瓜灯,谈起墙壁上那些画作所表现的十足的摩门教象征手法,他就能滔 maged missionary work” in Latin America, says one Mormon. 滔不绝的讲解半天,十分地耐心。 在解释近期势态的时候,梅萨的摩门教长者们也就显得格外谨慎了。随着 两位摩门教徒踏上美国总统的竞选征程,于是这个本来就让主流基督徒们 This, then, is Mr Lewis’s message: he is for civility, good listeni 费解的耶稣基督后期圣徒的教会,当前正在煞费苦心的证明他们仍然不理 ng and compromise. Mr Pearce’s proxies, by contrast, have sen 政治事务。但是他们的教义重视家庭(因此针对非法移民采取驱逐出境和 t other signals. After the padlock incident, a fake Twitter accou 监禁所导致的家庭成员的分离自然就让他们颇为不悦了) 摩门教的形象是 。 nt was online for a while, in which Mr Lewis appeared as some 包容性和全球性。皮尔斯先生及其 SB1070 法已经“毁了摩门教在拉丁美 sort of pervert. Most brazenly, a third candidate entered the rac 洲的传教事业”,一位摩门教徒甚至这样评价。 e. Also Mormon but an immigrant from Mexico, Olivia Cortes os tensibly ran against Mr Pearce. But it became clear that she ha So tone and style have become substance in this race, as argu d been placed on the ballot by Mr Pearce’s supporters, includin ably in national politics. And what a contrast emerges there. Ne g his nieces and a local tea-party boss. A judge ruled that “Pea xt to Mr Pearce’s aggression, Mr Lewis embodies niceness and rce supporters recruited Cortes, a political neophyte, to run in t politeness. Aged 55 and fit, he seems to have stepped out of a he recall election to siphon Hispanic votes from Lewis to advan Norman Rockwell painting. He used to be a Boy Scout leader a ce Pearce’s recall election bid.” Ms Cortes withdrew, but her na nd a missionary in Hong Kong (he proudly vocalises the eight t me remains on the ballots, which may confuse some voters. ones of Cantonese), as well as a baseball coach. His manner of 于是,刘易斯向人们传达这样的讯息:他上台是为了发扬礼仪、听取民众 speaking is strange because he is always smiling. His seventh g 的心声并且切实的解决问题。对比之下,皮尔斯的竞选团队则是另一番论 randchild is due next month, there are Halloween pumpkins all 调。挂锁事件之后,一个假冒的推特账号曾在网上存在过一段时间,它在《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 102. The Economist Economist Study Association 互联网上将刘易斯先生丑化成一副变态的模样。第三名竞选者也在此时露 Murder in New Orleans 面了。奥利维亚·克尔斯特——同样还是摩门教徒但是是来自墨西哥的移 新奥尔良的谋杀 民,表面上看起来是皮尔斯先生的竞争对手。但后来事态逐渐明朗,她是 被皮尔斯先生的支持者们拥护起来的,这其中还包括皮尔斯先生的侄女们 Telly Hankton’s town 和本地一个茶会的老板。一名法官断定“皮尔斯的支持者找来政坛新人考特 斯在罢免选举中从刘易斯那里拉走拉美裔选票,以此提高皮尔斯在罢免选 泰丽·汉克顿的恐怖笼罩下的城市 举中的胜算。”科尔斯特最终退出竞选,但是她的名字仍然在候选人的名单 A murderer sows terror, even from jail 上,这也许会使一些选民们摸不着头脑。 一个杀手甚至从监狱里散布恐慌。 And so Mesans will choose between Mr Lewis, an avuncular am FOR yearsNew Orleanshas been the murder capital ofAmerica. ateur with mostly local donors, and Mr Pearce, a sauntering sta And few men in the city are more dangerous than Telly Hankton. te bigwig with far-flung donors and national fame. It appears t In May 2008 he and a cousin engaged in a high-speed gun battle o be a tight race. Mr Pearce still commands strong personal loy with a rival alongSouth Claiborne Avenue, one of the city’s alties in a small place where most leaders and many voters me busiest streets, then rammed the man with their silver Mustang et at the local Mormon temple, Arizona’s oldest and biggest. Bu as he fled, in terror, on foot. Mr Hankton calmly killed him with t Mr Lewis, with hardly a proper campaign, has a good chance. four bullets in the face. Mr Lewis is “a way of getting Pearce’s policies without the assh 几年来,新奥尔良已经成为了美国的谋杀之都。而在这座城市里没有人会 ole”, as one Mormon Republican says. He adds that, in some w 比泰丽·汉克顿更加危险了。 2008 年的五月他连同他的一个堂兄弟卷入 在 ays, Mesa is a microcosm of present-day America. 了一场沿南克莱本大道的激烈枪战,这条路是这座城市最繁忙的街道,之 所以梅萨人将在刘易斯先生和皮尔斯先生当中做出选择,前者坐拥大批本 后当那个男人在恐慌中逃跑时,他用他们银色的野马车撞向了他。汉克顿 地赞助者,是一个慈眉善目的门外汉;后者则在国内名头响亮,且金主遍 冷酷地朝他的面部开了四枪将其杀害。 布各地,是个十足的富贵闲人。整个竞选走向逐渐紧张,双方似乎势均力 敌。皮尔斯麾下不乏摩门教中位高权重、德高望重的忠实拥护者。反观刘 Once arrested Mr Hankton paid bail of $1mand, according to the 易斯先生,几乎没有一只像样的竞选队伍,却把握住了一个很好的时机。 district attorney’s (DA’s) office, shot another enemy in June 2009. 如同一位摩门教共和党人说的那样, 刘易斯先生一路打的是“从皮尔斯先生 Police collected 59 shell casings at the scene. He was soon back 的政策当中取其精华去其糟粕”的旗号。同时这位先生还补充道,从某种态 in jail, but the carnage was not over. Last October John Matthews, 度上来说,现今的梅萨如同美国总统选举时的缩影。 owner of the Jazz Daiquiri Lounge onSouth Claiborneand a witness to the first murder, was shot 17 times in his own house. 翻译者:苏鑫&郑恒&赵兴昊 Police arrested another Hankton cousin in connection with that《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 103. The Economist Economist Study Association crime. 击者如果提供伪证将会面临在监狱中度过 40 年的处罚,因此他们没有出 据当地律师事务所称,在 2009 年六月另一名罪犯被击毙,一旦抓捕汉克 庭,而汉克顿被宣判为二等谋杀。按照路易斯安那州的法律他将被判终生 顿将会给予一百万美金的酬劳。警方在现场搜集了 59 枚子弹壳。他很快 监禁,而当地的律师事务所期望再进行一场对于 2009 年谋杀的审判。但 进入了监狱中,但是大屠杀并没有终止。去年 10 月一名看到这个杀手的 是据种种信号显示汉克顿主导的恐慌还没有结束。 目击者约翰·马修斯,也是位于南克莱本的台克利酒爵士乐走廊的所有者, 在他的房子里被打了 17 枪。警方逮捕了与本案有关的汉克顿的另一名堂 Nine days after the guilty verdict, someone drove a pick-up truck 弟。 through the glass doors of the DA’s office at high speed, then backed up and roared off. Two weeks later, on October 15th, John Miraculously, Mr Matthews survived to testify against Mr Hankton Matthews’s brother Curtis was “shot like a dog”, a friend said, in in July at the trial for the first murder. It ended with a hung jury, front of the Jazz Daiquiri Lounge. Curtis Matthews, a retired in large part due to the star alibi witness, a manager at the zoo postman fromNorth Carolina, was running the bar as a favour to who said she was having drinks with Mr Hankton at a hotel when his brother, who had leftLouisianaafter the attempt on his life the the murder occurred. But the alibi did not hold up long. The year before. zoo-manager has since confessed that she gave bogustestimony 在这场有罪裁定过去九天之后,一名不明身份的人员驾驶了一辆卡车以极 because she was terrified. 高的速度撞毁了当地的律师事务的玻璃墙,之后倒车呼啸而去。两个星期 马修斯先生竟不可思议的活了下来并在七月的关于第一次谋杀的审判中指 后,也就是十月十五日,一名朋友说,约翰·马修斯的弟弟柯蒂斯在台克利 证汉克顿。这以悬而未决的陪审团而终结,而这大体上归咎于那个为汉克 酒爵士乐走廊被“如同狗一样射杀了”。柯蒂斯·马修斯,这名北加利福尼亚 顿提供不在场证据的证人,一名自称当谋杀案发生时她正和汉克顿在一家 州的退休邮递员正在经营着这间酒吧作为对其哥哥的支持,他的哥哥在去 旅馆一起喝酒的动物园经理。 但是这个不在犯罪现场的证明没能持续太久。 年有人企图谋杀自己后已经离开了路易斯安娜。 这位动物园经理承认由于她被恐吓了故她提供了虚假的证词。 The city’s leading politicians have wasted little time in Prosecutors fared better at a retrial in September. This time the condemning this latest killing. “I’m sending a message loud and alibi witnesses, facing up to 40 years in prison if they were clear to Telly Hankton and his family and anyone else associated convicted of perjury, failed to show up, and Mr Hankton was with this: we’re coming to get you,” said Mitch Landrieu, the convicted of second-degree murder. UnderLouisianalaw he is mayor, on October 18th. The DA’s spokesman acknowledged he now behind bars for life, and the DA’s office intends to go forward had received “certain non-specific threats”, and it is said that with a trial for the 2009 murder. But there are signs that the other officials have been threatened too. Hankton reign of terror is not over. 这座城市的警长几乎没有把时间花费在谴责最近发生的谋杀案上。这座城 公诉人在九月份的再审中则会比较顺利了。这次那些拥有不在场证明的目 市的市长米奇·兰德里欧在十月十八日说道 “我郑重而明确地向泰利·汉克《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 104. The Economist Economist Study Association 顿和他的家族以及与此相关的任何人传达一个消息:我们将会抓住你,”。 Artists in America 地区律师事务所的发言人称他收到了“非特定的的恐吓”,而据说其他的工 美洲的艺术家 作人员也被恐吓过。 Painting by numbers The politicians’ chest-beating is overdue. Such crimes might not be shocking in Medellín, but they are not supposed to happen in 艺术在少数人手中 America. When a known killer is caught, but innocent witnesses An overlooked minority who are not all starving in garret are still killed and perjured testimony is conjured up from 这些被忽略的少数群体并不是所有人都在阁楼上挨饿 nowhere, the entire justice system is on shaky ground. As Mr Landrieu put it, the Hankton case is “the symbol of everything IN A recession the arts ma that doesn’t work.” It will take a successful resolution of the case, y seem a luxury. But they h in all its dangerous ramifications, for New Orleanians to have ave proved a valuable way confidence in the system again. to rejuvenate industrial dist 警察的忍耐已经到达了极限。类似的犯罪也许不会在梅德林引起震动,但 ricts and boost communitie 是无法想象他没发生在美国。虽然一个人尽皆知的刽子手被抓获,但是无 s that once relied on manuf 辜的目击证人仍然被杀害并且伪证层出不穷,整个司法体系都在被撼动。 acturing. Studies show that 就像兰德里欧先生所说的那样, 汉克顿的案子就像是“所有事都不能正常运 in a labour market that pri 转的信号.” 在危机四伏的情况下,找到一个成功的对此案的解决方案将会 zes well-educated workers, 使整个系统重拾信心。 the best way to lure them i s often by attracting creativ 译者:李苏 :&马腾博 e people first. 在经济衰退的今天,艺术似乎是 种奢求。但艺术却是一个宝贵的 渠道,能让工业区复苏,并且推 动曾经依赖于制造业的社区建 设。研究表明,在一个奖励优秀员工的人才市场里,吸引他们的最好的方 法通常是先吸引有创造力的人。 Yet there is little reliable information about where artists live an d how they are contributing to the national economy. Many still《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 105. The Economist Economist Study Association envision them as loners toiling in their garrets, perhaps with a ment-making. nasty cough. In fact artists (broadly defined to take in all the cr 很少有人会很奇怪纽约和加利福尼亚的艺术家很多,而密西西比州和西弗 eative industries) are well integrated into the workforce, and m 吉尼亚州却很少。但是现在密歇根州却有大量的工业设计师(大概是因为 ore than half work in the private sector. Though they make up 它昙花一现的汽车工业) ,福蒙特州有大批的绘图设计师。明尼阿波利斯市 only 1.4% (2.1m) of America’s total labour market, they are hi 都会区主要依赖图书出版, 而匹兹堡则有一批数量不相匹配的博物馆工人。 ghly entrepreneurial and twice as likely to have college degrees. 密西西比州(以莓系属的牧草著名)虽然不是艺术家的故乡,但是有大量 All this comes from a new report by the National Endowment f 的音乐家,虽然不像田纳西州那么多。田纳西州在乐器制造上蒸蒸日上, or the Arts (NEA), using data from the annual American Comm 这和密西西比州一样。 unity Survey and the quarterly census of employment and wag es. The best-paid jobs go to architects (at least 16% of them forei 然而,很少有可靠的信息告诉我们艺术家生活在哪里,他们如何对国家经 gn-born, the most of any field), followed by film directors and p 济做出贡献。很多人仍然把他们看成在阁楼里辛苦作画的孤独者,可能还 roducers. These workers also tend to be the best educated, an 会有不好的咳嗽声传出。事实上,艺术家(广义上所有的从事创造行业的 d male. More than a third of all artists in the study are “designe 都是艺术家)很好的融入到劳动力中,并且多一半在私人部门工作。虽然 rs”, a field that ranges from industrial to floral. Dancers and ch 他们在整个美国的劳动市场只占 1.4% (210 万) 但是他们是积极的创业 , oreographers seem to have the toughest time of it, earning the 家并且拥有大学文凭的人数比其他人群多出两倍。这些都来自于美国全国 worst pay and with the least education. In general, artists’ me 艺术基金会的最新报道,他们利用每年一次的美国社区调查数据和每季度 dian earnings are higher than those of the rest of the labour for 雇佣信息和工资信息的调查数据得出结论。 ce: $43,000 compared with $39,000 in 2009. Yet sexual bias o btains here too: women artists make just 81 cents for every do Few will be surprised to learn that artists are abundant in New llar earned by their male counterparts. York and California, and thin on the ground in Mississippi and W 收益最高的职业当属建筑师(至少 16%是外国人,大多数仍是本地人) , est Virginia. But it turns out that Michigan has an especially hig 其次是电影导演和制片人。这些职员同样趋向于受过良好教育的男性。在 h number of industrial designers (presumably because of its on 调查中,超过三分之一的艺术家都是设计师,这个职业涵盖了工业到养花 ce-shiny car industry), and Vermont is rich in graphic designers. 业。舞蹈演员和编舞者们似乎过得最辛苦了,她们教育水平最低,拿到的 The Minneapolis metro area relies heavily on book publishing, 工资最少。 总体上来说, 艺术家的中等收入比其他那些劳动力要高: 2009 在 whereas Pittsburgh has a disproportionate number of museum 年,43000 美元对比 39000 美元。然而,性别歧视在这一领域同样存在: workers. Though home to few artists, Mississippi (famous for bl 如果男同行挣一美元,那么女艺术家只能挣 81 分。 uegrass) has quite a number of musicians, though not as many 译者:慧子&马腾博 as Tennessee—which also does a thriving line in musical-instru《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 106. The Economist Economist Study Association Drugs shortages 局面。“我们不能再等国会的行动了。”奥巴马总统说道“我们必须继续前 药品短缺 进。”,接着签署了最新的政令。在国会停滞,大选逼近的情况下,奥巴马 努力靠自己加强权力。“我们不能等了”成为了奥巴马的新口号。 Can’t wait? Must wait The new executive order tries to alleviate a dire scarcity of drugs. 不能等?必须等 This year has seen a shortage of 232 medicines, up from 70 in Barack Obama tries to take matters into his own hands 2006, according to the University of Utah, which keeps the 奥巴马亲自出马,掌控大局 country’s most comprehensive list. These are mostly injected medicines, such as generic chemotherapy drugs. Many patients have had to delay treatment. A grey market has flourished, with middlemen hoarding drugs and selling them at a premium. 这项新政令旨在减轻药物的极度匮乏。美国犹他大学对该情况最为了解, 据其统计,今年有 232 种药物供应不足,比 2006 年多了 70 种。其中注 射类药物最为匮乏,如普通化疗药物。许多病人因此延迟了治疗。药物中 间商囤积居奇,灰色市场兴盛一时。 Fixing this problem has been difficult, in part because its causes are so complex. Concentration among generic drugmakers may be to blame. The top three makers of generic injectables control 71% of the market by volume. When one drugmaker has a manufacturing problem, others rarely step in. It takes time to begin or ramp up production. Firms may also be loth to enter the SITTING in the Oval Office on October 31st, Barack Obama tried market; margins on generics are hair-thin. Some argue that to look like a man in charge. “We can’t wait for action on the Hill,” Medicare, the public programme that pays for many injected he declared. “We’ve got to go ahead and move forward.” The drugs, keeps prices from rising with demand. president then signed his latest executive order. With Congress 这一问题并不容易解决,部分是由于其起因复杂。普通药物生产商也要为 frozen and an election looming, Mr Obama has been trying to 此负一定的责任。三大普通注射药剂生产商控制了市场 71%的生产量。 当 exert power on his own. “We can’t wait” is his new slogan. 某一生产商面临生产危机的时候,其它产商并不会补足缺口。投入与提高 10 月 31 日, 巴拉克·奥巴马坐在总统办公室里, 试图让自己看起来掌控了 生产都需要时间。公司也不愿意进入该市场,毕竟非专利性药物的利润微《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 107. The Economist Economist Study Association 乎其微。有些人指出,公共项目导致了这种结果,联邦医疗保险为许多注 其它法案一样等上两个月,奥巴马对此也无能为力。 射类药物买单,因而药物并未随着需求的提升而涨价。 翻译者:唐瑕憶&李方裔 Unfortunately for Mr Obama, his executive order will have limited effect. He has asked the Justice Department to investigate the grey market, a step that will treat a symptom of the shortage but not its cause. The order will shift staff within the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to speed the review of new suppliers and factories. This “surge team” will help, but it is not a permanent fix, merely shuffling resources within a strained department. The order also urges firms to tell the FDA about production changes that could lead to a shortage of vital drugs. But this is not a new requirement. 对于奥巴马而言,不幸的是他的政令影响力极为有限。他下令让司法部门 调查灰色市场,这有助于缓解药物缺乏,然而还不能根除。这项指令将促 进了美国食品药品管理局的工作人员对新供应商和工厂的审查。 这支“冲击 队”能到起一定的作用,但也不过是在资源紧缺的部门内进行调节而已, 毕 竟不是长久之计。该项指令还要求公司及时向美国食品药品管理局汇报关 键性药物的生产变更情况,以防发生匮乏。 A proper fix will require political co-operation. Mr Obama cannot relax Medicare reimbursement rules on his own, nor does he seem to want to. Creating new reporting rules for industry would require an act of Congress. Indeed, two pending bills would do just that. Unfortunately they have sat still for months, like so much else, and there is little Mr Obama can do about that. 完全解决该问题需要政治合作。奥巴马是无法凭一己之力改变医疗保险报 销规则的,看上去他也不想这么做。而建立新的工业申报制度则需要通过 新的国会法案。确实,目前有两项议案致力于此。不幸的是,它们还要像《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 108. The Economist Economist Study Association Lexington blige. If Luther Cain, chauffeur, was half as charming as Herm 克列星顿 an, would-be president of the United States, the story makes perfect sense. Of all the front-runners for the Republican nomi Sex and pizzas nation, Mr Cain has been by far the easiest to like. 赫尔曼·凯恩很喜欢讲他爸爸的故事。 20 世纪 50 年代他的父亲卢瑟在 在 性骚扰和披萨饼 亚特兰大的乔治亚州同时进行三份工作来勉强维持生活。 其中的一份工作 The fairy tale of a political original heads towards a stic 是做可口可乐公司的老板罗伯特·伍德拉夫的司机,并甚得其欢心。当卢 ky end 瑟要求用公司的股份来代替惯例的现金奖励时,伍德拉夫很高兴的应许 政坛奇人的童话故事或将悲剧收场 了。如果作为司机的卢瑟·凯恩的个人魅力有想要成为美国总统的赫尔曼 的一半的话,这个故事就会很有意义了。在共和党提名的众多杰出者中, 凯恩先生深得民心。 Mr Cain’s charm and intelligence had by the start of this week propelled the self-made pizza plutocrat to the front of the pac k in the race for the Republican nomination. Not for nothing d oes his latest book, “This Is Herman Cain!”, the promotion of which has sometimes appeared to take precedence over his ac tual campaign, have an exclamation mark in its title. Almost e verything about Mr Cain invites some sort of exclamation. He was a rocket scientist for the Navy! He survived stage-four ca ncer! Mr Cain is a Baptist preacher and motivational speaker: he can fire up an audience, stoke it to its feet and have it erup t with fist-pumping cheers. Voters who meet him in person ar HERMAN CAIN likes to tell the story of his father, Luther, who e beguiled by his big smile and southern twinkle. in the 1950s in Atlanta, Georgia, scraped a living by holding d 截至本周初该隐先生的魅力和聪明才智使得这位比萨大亨在共和党候选 own three jobs, one of which was being chauffeur for Robert 名额的竞选中脱颖而出。他的新书名为《这就是赫尔曼凯恩!,书名中的 》 Woodruff, the boss of Coca-Cola. Woodruff took such a shine t 感叹号也不是白打的,其新书的促销有时甚至盖过了其总统竞选的风头。 o his driver that when Luther asked for stock in the company i 好像关于该隐先生的任何事情都与感叹号有关。 他曾经是美国海军的火箭 nstead of occasional gifts of cash, the old man was happy to o 科学家!他从癌症末期中活了过来!他是一名浸信会的牧师并且是一名鼓《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 109. The Economist Economist Study Association 舞人心的演讲者:他可以感染观众,让激情先深埋心底然后喷涌而出。单 独会见他的投票者会深深地迷上他灿烂的笑容和南方人特有的魅力。 This week, alas, all such calculations were knocked to one side. Mr Cain’s spell between 1996 and 1999 as chief executive of t Could he really be the One? he National Restaurant Association in Washington, DC, had ap 他真的会成功吗? peared to be one of the duller way-stations in the candidate’s Even before the harassment stories reared their head, his pop otherwise compelling life story. This week he returned to Was ularity was beginning to perplex professional political analysts. hington to explain the snappy beauty of his “9-9-9” plan to re True, he was surging in the polls, but should they take his ch vive the economy by scrapping the income tax and replacing i ances of becoming president seriously? Was he even serious a t with a flat tax and sales tax. On his arrival, however, news b bout his own chances, or simply angling for book sales and a roke that when he was the association’s boss at least two of it bigger chat show? Signs that he might not expect actually to s female employees complained that he sexually harassed the win the nomination include a failure to campaign strongly in fi m. rst-voting Iowa or to build an organisation or war-chest strong 非常遗憾, 本周所有的坏事都赶在了一起。 凯恩先生曾在 1996 年至 1999 enough to carry him through later states if he did win there. 年之间担任华盛顿特区国家餐馆协会首席执行官的一职, 本来在他近乎传 The consensus among the cognoscenti was that he was a no-h 奇的人生履历中,这似乎只是路边乏味的一个小站。这周他重新返回华盛 oper, though Nate Silver, a statistical wiz, touched off a fierce 顿来阐释他的精彩的的“9-9-9”计划。该计划旨在减少所得税并进一步用 debate by musing on the New York Times website as to wheth 平头税和销售税取代它,从而促进经济得到复苏。不料,在他刚刚到达华 er Mr Cain had absolutely no chance of winning the nominatio 盛顿时, 新闻便爆料说在他在该协会任职期间至少有两名女性雇员曾控诉 n or, say, one chance in 50. 被他骚扰。 甚至在骚扰事件出现之前,凯恩的支持率就已经开始让专业的职业分析 师们困惑了。他确实在民意调查中势不可挡,但是人们应该认真的考虑他 Up to this point, Mr Cain’s campaign had been gloriously unort 成为总统的可能性吗?他自己本人是严肃对待这件事的吗, 还是仅仅想要 hodox. An ad in which, against the usual bombastic soundtrac 促销图书或者进行一次影响力更大的谈话节目?种种迹象, 如在爱荷华州 k, his manager stares silently into the camera drawing on a ci 的初选竞争的失利以及建立一个组织或战争基金的失败表明他或许没有 garette struck some people as dotty, others as brilliant. “Let H 希望最后赢得提名.如果上述的举动获得成功的话,他在其他州的选举将 erman be Herman” became his slogan, as the candidate came 会更加顺利。 一个名叫 Nate Silver 的数据分析大师发表在纽约时报的 to see his relaxed personality as his most devastating weapon 网络版面上的思考引发了激烈的讨论——凯恩先生是否根本就没有一点 截止目前,凯恩先生的选举一直都是相当标新立异的。在为他设计的一则 获得大选胜利的希望,甚至是微不足道的五十分之一的希望?然而,观察 具有独特夸张效应的广告中,他的经理人一边安静的注视着摄像机,一边 家们的一致意见是确定的——他毫无希望。 还抽着烟,品评着一些人的躁动和另一些人的理智。“让赫尔曼成为赫尔《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 110. The Economist Economist Study Association 曼”变成了他的口号,因为凯恩将他轻松闲适的性格作为他最有杀伤力的 0. 武器。 首先,凯恩先生和他之前的很多人一样,都忽视了一个黄金法则,那就 是无论如何都要在媒体发现之前坦白自己。 Politico 爆出了这则新闻之 在 Can Herman continue to be Herman in the face of the harass 后,他否认(并且一直否认)曾经性骚扰过任何人,并声明在经过一番调 ment allegations? Perhaps, especially if the complaints against 查之后针对他的指控已经被撤销。他还说他并不知道自己为次支付了任何 him are shown to have been untrue, unproven or exaggerate 钱财。但是过了不久,他便开始回忆更多内容。是的,这里曾有某个不可 d. But some of the originality has already started to drain out 告人的协议,在协议中其中一个女人收到了三个月的薪水。但是他记不清 of the Cain narrative. For all the unorthodoxy of his campaign 是否是他亲自签署了这份协议。隔日,New York Times 报导说事实上 so far, the tale that unfolded this week has followed a script c 其中一个女人被支付了一整年的薪水,合计 35000 美元。 ontaining many of the plot twists that have become drearily fa miliar from previous political sex scandals in America. Next Mr Cain complained, and some of his friends agreed, that 当赫尔曼面临着性骚扰的指控时,他还能我行我素吗?或许,只有当这 the story was not a case of the newspapers doing their job bu 些针对他的控诉被证明是虚假的,没有被证实的或者说是夸大的,他才有 t a racist “witch-hunt”. Brent Bozell, president of the Media Re 可能回归原来的自己吧。凯恩本人也叙述了一些关于这件事本源。到目前 search Centre, which purports to unmask “liberal bias”, said t 为止,在贯穿他所有的竞选活动中的那些异事中,本周爆料出的这些八卦 hat Mr Cain had predicted months ago that he might face a “hi 的情节的版本跟之前的那些美国政治性丑闻事件极为相像。 gh-tech lynching” like the accusations of sexual harassment th at afflicted Clarence Thomas during his confirmation hearings First, Mr Cain, like many before him, ignored the golden rule, for the Supreme Court. “In the eyes of the liberal media”, said which is to tell all at once before the media find out anyway. T Mr Bozell, “Herman Cain is just another uppity black America he day after Politico broke the story, he denied (and continues n who has had the audacity to leave the liberal plantation. So to deny) ever having harassed anyone, claiming that after an they must destroy him, just as they tried destroying Clarence investigation the charges against him were dismissed. He als Thomas.” By November 2nd Mr Cain was accusing his bouffant o said he was unaware of any financial settlement being paid. Republican rival, Rick Perry, of orchestrating a smear campai As the day wore on, however, he started to recall more details. gn against him. Yes, there had been some sort of agreement under which one 之后凯恩先生申诉说,报道那种新闻并不是一个新闻报纸所应做的,这种 of the women might have been paid three months’ salary, but 做法是种族主义的政治迫害,他的一些朋友也同意这样的说法。传媒研究 he could not remember whether he signed that agreement hi 中心主席 Brent Bozell 主张摘下“自由偏见”的面具,说凯恩先生在数月 mself. The next day the New York Times reported that one of 前已经预测到他会面对一个“高科技的私刑”,就像 Clarence Thomas the women had in fact been paid a full year’s salary of $35,00 曾经历过的那场备受折磨的关于性侵犯指控的最高法院听证。“在自由媒《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 111. The Economist Economist Study Association 体的眼中”,Mr Bozell 说道,“赫尔曼凯恩只是另一个毫无畏惧的离开种 植园的傲慢美国黑人。所以他们必须毁掉他,只因为他们曾试图毁 掉 Clarence Thomas 。 ” 十 一 月 二 日 , 凯 恩 指 控 他 的 共 和 党 竞 争 对 手 Rick Perry 精心制造了这次诽谤。 And so it invariably goes in America’s paranoid, super-charged politics. The lovely bubble of the Cain story has popped, maki ng it harder for those bewitched by his silver tongue and folks y charm to continue to overlook his frequent gaffes and flaws, which include flip-flops on abortion and a comprehensive igno rance of the world beyond America’s shores. On television this week he gave a grave warning: China is trying to develop nuc lear weapons! It has had them for half a century. For a while, Mr Cain and his story reminded Americans of something rathe r wonderful about their country. Now, perhaps, too much light has been let in on the magic. 接下来,美国那一成不变的偏执、无限夸大的的政治模式仍旧继续进行 着。凯恩的那则八卦像一个气泡不断的膨胀,这让那些曾经陶醉于他三寸 不烂之舌和随和魅力的人很难再去忽略他频繁出丑和种种缺陷——包括 他对堕胎政策的突然转变以及对美国海岸外部世界的缺乏关注。 本周他在 电视上给出了一个严重的警告:中国正在尝试制造核武器!而事实是, 那 个国家已经拥有了这种武器长达半个世纪。曾几何时,凯恩和他的传奇故 事让美国人由衷赞叹自己国家的伟大。而现在,或许,这传奇的光芒是否 太过刺眼了呢? 翻译者:栾子越&马彦天《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 112. The Economist Economist Study Association Nicaragua’s presidential election His Sandinista guerrillas overthrew Anastasio Somoza, whose 尼加拉瓜的总统选举 family had run Nicaragua as a private fief for four decades until 1979, and inspired even more support when the United States The survivor began an unsuccessful covert war to remove them. Mr Ortega lost power in the country’s first-ever free election in 1990, but 险胜者 was voted back into office in 2006. On November 6th he is likely Buoyed by a growing economy and Venezuelan cash, the to win another five-year term. Sandinista leader who toppled a dictator is set to win an 20 世纪 80 年代, 丹尼尔·奥尔特加戴着运动太阳镜、 身着军照的肖像 unconstitutional third term 装饰了无数学生卧室的墙壁。他领导的桑迪若游击队推翻了安纳斯塔西奥· 经济不断增长,加上委内瑞拉的赞助,推翻独裁者的桑迪若领袖赢得违宪 索摩查,其家族把尼加拉瓜当做个人封地统治了 40 年,一直统治到 1979 的第三任期已成大势 年。在美国对他的游击队发动了一场失败的隐蔽战争后,他们反而赢得了 更多的支持。奥尔特加先生在 1990 年尼加拉瓜第一次自由选举中下台, 2006 年又被选上台。11 月 6 号他极有可能再次赢得一个五年任期。 The world’s romance with his Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) has soured. Whereas Mr Ortega was once a symbol of victory over tyranny, he is now a cheat. Local elections in 2008 saw vast fraud, with the FSLN wrongly awarded some 40 mayoralties. Foreign donors suspended over $100m in protest. This year the signs are ominous. Voting cards have not been delivered in some areas, and accreditation of opposition parties’ agents has been slow. The government has admitted a few EU election monitors, but no independent domestic observers. 桑迪若民族解放阵线家喻户晓的传奇故事已经变质。曾作为推翻暴政 象征的奥尔加特先生如今成了一个舞弊者。2008 年桑迪若民族解放阵线 的地方选举作弊猖獗,不公正地选了约 40 名市长。国外捐赠人停止了 1 亿美元的捐款以示抗议。今年亦有不祥征兆。一些地区没发到投票卡,委 SPORTING sunglasses and military fatigues, Daniel Ortega’s 派反对党代理人速度又慢。政府已经批准了欧盟派人监察选举,却没有独 portrait graced thousands of student-bedroom walls in the 1980s. 立的国内监察员。《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 113. The Economist Economist Study Association Even Mr Ortega’s presence on the ballot is disputed. Since The Sandinistas are popular in much of the country. In León, presidents are limited to two non-consecutive terms, the a northern city where the first Somoza dictator was shot dead in incumbent and two-time officeholder is doubly barred. But the 1956, the FSLN’s end-of-campaign parade drew thousands. Supreme Court gave him the go-ahead in 2009, deciding (on a “Daniel is the president of the poor, and Nicaragua is on the up,” weekend, when hostile judges were away) that the ban violated says Marco Urroz, a revolutionary veteran who gives tours of a his right to equal treatment. Mr Ortega later extended the terms museum showing photos of teenaged compañeros wielding rifles. of several of its judges after the legislature could not agree on Rosario Murillo, the first lady and communications minister, has their successors. helped transmit this enthusiasm to the 70% of the population 甚至奥尔加特先生能否出现在候选席上还颇具争议,既然总统非连续 that is under 30. 的任期只有两次,那么已有两次任期的在位者更无权参选。但是 2009 年 桑迪若民族解放阵线在尼加拉瓜的多数地区很受欢迎。在莱昂,1956 最高法院给他开过绿灯,(在持反对意见的法官都不在的一个周末)宣判 年第一个索摩查独裁者被击毙的地方,桑迪若民族解放阵线竞选末期的游 该禁令侵犯了他受到公平待遇的权利,奥尔特加先生后来在立法机构决定 行吸引了成千上万的人。“丹尼尔是穷人的总统,尼加拉瓜因而蒸蒸日上”, 不了其中几位法官的继任者之后延长了他们的任期。 一位去了展示挥着步枪的少年照片的博物馆,名叫马尔科·乌罗斯的革命老 兵如是说。罗莎莉欧‧穆里罗,第一夫人兼交通部长,已成功把这种热情 After Fidel Castro, Mr Ortega is the joint-least popular leader in the Americas, according to Latinobarómetro, a regionwide poll. 传递给三十岁以下 70%的人群。 But at home he has more support than ever. Polls give him around half the vote, up from the FSLN’s typical 40%. The The rhetoric is backed up by an economy that is far stronger opposition has formed an alliance against him. But its candidate, than it was during Mr Ortega’s first term, when inflation topped Fabio Gadea, a 79-year-old radio journalist, lags behind with 30,000%. Nicaragua is still the poorest country on the American about 30%. The FSLN is set to win control of the legislature, and mainland, with an average income of $1,100. But last year it had perhaps a constitution-changing supermajority. the fastest growth in Central America after Panama, a feat it may 根据拉美晴雨表这个地方调查,奥尔特加先生是菲德尔·卡斯特罗之外 repeat in 2011. Part of the mini-boom is caused by the rising 美洲最不受欢迎的领导人。但是在尼加拉瓜,他受到了空前的支持。他赢 price of food, which makes up a big chunk of Nicaragua’s 得了近半数的选票, 比桑迪若民族解放阵线以前独享的 40%还要高。 反对 economic output. Mr Ortega has also courted investment with 派形成一个反对联盟。但是其候选人法比奥·加迪亚,一个 79 岁的广播新 tax breaks and business-friendly regulations that belie his 闻工作者,有 30%的选票,落后于他。桑迪若民族解放阵线势必赢得对立 “socialist” brand. Garment factories are moving from Honduras 法的控制,或可改变宪法的绝对多数制。 to a Nicaraguan free-trade zone. Call-centres are the next target. And whereas Venezuela has expelled the “imperialist” IMF and《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 114. The Economist Economist Study Association World Bank, Nicaragua recently got a friendly write-up from the 项目,比如说“零饥饿”计划,这个计划向贫穷的人家发放牲畜。这些花费 Fund. The Bank rates it as the Central American country that best 都是不透明的,很多举措得到了桑地诺民族解放阵线成员的赞同和亲睐。 protects investors’ rights. 但是贫困的人数下降了,通了电的家庭已经从 2005 年的 55%上升到了 这些宣传背后的经济比奥尔特加先生第一任期时要强大得多,那时候 70%。查韦斯先生可能会觉得难为情,但是他正在为世界银行制定的土地 通胀率超过 30,000%。尼加拉瓜仍然是美洲大陆上最穷的国家,人均收 登记的更新注资。 入为 1100 美元。但是去年其经济增长速度在中美仅次于巴拿马,2011 年可能再创这样的佳绩。经济的小繁荣部分原因可能是食品价格的上涨, The opposition calls the Chávez bonus, worth 7-8% of GDP, a 食品占了尼加拉瓜经济产出的很大一部分。奥尔特加先生还通过减税和有 form of electoral blackmail. The FSLN likes to hint that it will 益生意的规章引资,掩盖了他“社会主义者”的商标。服装厂正从洪都拉斯 vanish if anyone else takes power. On October 25th Rafael 搬往尼加拉瓜的自贸区。 成立呼叫中心是下一个目标。 与驱逐“帝国主义者” Ramírez, Venezuela’s energy minister, said in Managua that the 国际货币基金组织和世界银行的委内瑞拉相反,尼加拉瓜最近受到了基金 deal was contingent on continued “revolution”—a heavy hint in 组织的褒奖,世界银行称其为中美最保护投资者权利的国家。 favour of the FSLN. 反对派称此为查韦斯红利,得花费 GDP 的 7—8%,这是选举勒索的 The treasury has been helped by Mr. Ortega’s alliance with 一种形式。桑地诺民族解放阵线成员示意,如果他人当权,这一切都会灰 Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez. Nicaragua buys $1 billion a 飞烟灭。 委内瑞拉能源和石油部长拉米雷斯在 10 月 25 号申明, 在马那瓜, year of Venezuelan oil, and gets half of it back in low-interest, 情况是视不断持续的“革命” ------这一为桑地诺民族解放阵线成员明显亲 long-term loans. The money is split between investments that 睐的情况而定的。 range from wind farms to takeovers of troublesome TV channels; subsidies for electricity and transport (a bus ride costs just 11 But the bonus may soon evaporate. The ailing health of cents in Managua); and social programmes like Zero Hunger, Venezuela’s economy, and of Mr. Chávez, has caused Mr Ortega which gives livestock to poor families. The spending is opaque, to look for allies in the private sector. Businesses have benefited and may have favoured FSLN members. But poverty has fallen, from the country’s macroeconomic stability—and from the and the share of homes with electricity has risen from 55% in government’s social spending which, says Manuel Ortega (no 2007 to 70%. Mr. Chávez may squirm, but his cash is funding a relation) of the University of Central America, helps to keep World Bank-designed update of the land registry. wages low. Campaign finances suggest that companies are 奥特加先生与委内瑞拉总统胡戈·查韦斯联合已经联合拯救了财政。尼 supporting the president. Eduardo Montealegre, the runner-up to 加拉瓜每年购买委内瑞拉 10 亿美元的石油,其中可以通过低利息的长期 Daniel Ortega in 2006, says he received $6m in business 贷款收回五亿美元。这些钱分别投入到风力农业到棘手的电台回益;对电 donations that year. This time Mr. Gadea has got less than $1m. 力和公共交通的补贴(马那瓜的公交一次只要 11 美分);以及社会公益 Up to September, the FSLN had outspent him by a ratio of over《经济学人》双语版 2011 年 10 月 29 日刊 免费邮件订阅地址:http://goo.gl/CkVFL 本刊旨在提供学习交流之用,请于下载后 24 小时内删除,我们鼓励购买正版!
  • 115. The Economist Economist Study Association three to one. Pictures of Mr. Ortega are all over Managua, but Mr. Montealegre, who is widely believed to have won Managua’s Gadea has just 16 billboards nationwide. mayoral election that year. “This time, I won’t be able to stop 但是红利&#x