CAR: Fragile progress

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An updated overview of the humanitarian and development situation in the Central African Republic, presented at the OECD by Toby Lanzer in June 2008.

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  • Handout Printed 06/03/09 13:08 Page
  • CAR: Fragile progress

    1. 1. CAR: Fragile progress Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
    2. 2. Landlocked in a troubled neighbourhood Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR CAR Rebellion or internal conflict Chad Sudan Cameroon DRC Congo Darfur Gabon Uganda Nigeria
    3. 3. Desperately poor… Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Mali Gambia Source: World Bank (2002) Nigeria CAR Niger Burkina Faso 73 Percent of population living on less than one dollar a day 70 67 64 61 61 59 Zambia
    4. 4. Getting poorer Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Source: IMF (2007) 1985 1990 2000 2005 Income per head (PPP) grew by less than 10% in CAR, but by 80% in Sub-Saharan Africa 1995 100 +20% GDP growth, Base = 100 (1985) +40% +60% +80% -20% CAR Sub-Saharan Africa
    5. 5. Violence in 2006-07 displaced 300,000 out of 4 million Slide Oct-07 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Bangui Vakaga Haute-Kotto Bamingui- Bangoran CHAD SUDAN DARFUR DRC CONGO CAMEROON Nana- Ma mbéré Nana- Gr ébizi 11 % 17 % 18 % 50 22 % 28 8 20 17 6 % 24 10 % 25 45 60 3 IDPs in thousands Ouham- Pend é 3 % of pop. Source: HDPT CAR (October 2007) * Estimated 25,000 pastoralists have been displaced from their territory. Not shown here. Refugees in thousands 35 % Ouham
    6. 6. Bandits endanger return and recovery Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
    7. 7. Reaching MDGs an enormous challenge Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR 1985 2000 Source: Human Development Report (2006) 1990 1995 2005 2010 2015 50% 31% 25% 75% MDG 62% 67% Share of people living in poverty unlikely to fall by half * at least $135 million of additional yearly requirements according to Gleneagles scenario Current trend
    8. 8. Shattered health system struggles to cope with epidemics Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Health quick facts <ul><li>76% of population live more than 10 km from nearest health centre </li></ul><ul><li>Life expectancy fell from 49 years in 1988 to 43 years in 2003 </li></ul><ul><li>56% of births not assisted </li></ul><ul><li>Maternal mortality at 1,102 per 100,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Infant-mortality rate at 132 per 1,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Malaria leading cause of morbidity (40%) and mortality (14%) </li></ul>HEALTH Epidemics and disease outbreaks 2007/08 Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006) Meningitis in Kaga-Bandoro Hepatitis in Basse-Kotto Polio in Bangui Hepatitis in Ombella-Mpoko Yellow fever in Ouham-Pendé Typhoid * in Nana-Mambéré * disease outbreak, not officially declared an epidemic
    9. 9. And with HIV/AIDS Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR The highest prevalence rate in the region <ul><li>6.2% of the population (15-49 years old) HIV-positive, with over 10% infected in some prefectures </li></ul><ul><li>Women significantly more affected, with 7.8% infected, versus 4.3% for men </li></ul><ul><li>Prevalence roughly twice as high in urban areas as in rural areas. </li></ul><ul><li>Estimated 140,000 children orphaned by HIV/AIDS </li></ul><ul><li>Prevalence of contraceptives only 6.9% </li></ul>HEALTH HIV/AIDS prevalence by prefecture in % Nana-Gribizi Bangui Haute-Kotto Ombella-M’Poko Mambéré-Kadéï Total Haut-Mbomou Bamingui-Bangoran Top 7 regions by total Men Women 13.6 10.7 4.1 2.6 3.1 7.2 6.9 6.3 7.8 3.6 3.1 3.2 7.4 4.2 7.3 6.4 4.5 3.2 6.0 4.9 5.1 13.8 7.4 7.3 7.2 10.7 8.4 7.8 13.6 8.3 9.8 10.6 15.1 11.4 10.3 13.5 Source: Govt. Briefing Paper, (www.car-conference.net), UNFPA (2007), MICS (2006) 8.4
    10. 10. 3 out of 4 million cannot access safe drinking water Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Water and sanitation quick facts % of pop. using improved sanitation (HDI bottom 10) <ul><li>Most water pumps in disrepair </li></ul><ul><li>Only 26% of population has access to safe drinking water </li></ul><ul><li>About 73% of population without access to sanitation facilities </li></ul><ul><li>Open-air defecation common </li></ul><ul><li>No waste management system </li></ul>WATER Source: UN (2007) Suivi des OMD en RCA, UNDP HDR 2007/08 Guinea-B. Mali Sierra L. Mozambique DRC CAR Burkina F. Niger Ethiopia Source: UNDP HDR 2007/08 Chad 35 46 39 32 30 27 13 13 13 9
    11. 11. Drinking water a health hazard Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR WATER
    12. 12. Agriculture in disarray Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Food security and agriculture quick facts <ul><li>Global acute malnutrition for children under 5 years at 10% </li></ul><ul><li>Global moderate malnutrition rate 20 percent higher than in 1995 </li></ul><ul><li>15 million ha arable land but only 600,000 ha cultivated </li></ul><ul><li>94% of farming is subsistence farming </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural production in the north came to a virtual halt, no seeds, no tools </li></ul>Children suffer: severely retarded growth Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Rural Development (www.car-conference.net), MICS Source: MICS-3, WHO (2007) Months 9 18 30 42 30% 15% 10% 54 20% 25% 5% FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE
    13. 13. Food security paradox: fertile soils yet malnutrition rife Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURE
    14. 14. One of the world’s weakest educational systems Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Education quick facts Pupils per teacher in Sub-Saharan Africa <ul><li>Only 1.45% of GDP spent on education, almost 50% below African average </li></ul><ul><li>Primary enrolment rates have not improved in 15 years </li></ul><ul><li>Pupil to teacher ratio 92:1 in primary education </li></ul><ul><li>Almost 50% of teachers are parents </li></ul><ul><li>Only 32% of pupils completed primary education in 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>Adult literacy rate 51% for men, 32% for women </li></ul>EDUCATION 92 72 66 63 62 CAR Congo Ethiopia Mozam. Chad Rwanda 83 80 60 40 20 Source: Govt. Briefing Paper on Education (www.car-conference.net) Source: UNESCO (2005), Pupil-teacher ratio in primary education (X:1) 100
    15. 15. Communities resort to bush schools and parent-teachers Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR EDUCATION
    16. 16. Three ‘make or break’ issues to enhance stability in 2008 Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Central African people expect government and donors to deliver Inclusive Political Dialogue Security Sector Reform Poverty Reduction Strategy
    17. 17. Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Photo Align with top grey line and bottom black bar Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace
    18. 18. Inclusive Political Dialogue: consolidating fragile peace <ul><li>Release of UFDR spokesman and chairman created a favourable climate </li></ul><ul><li>APRD finally takes part in negotiations, so three main militant groups at the table </li></ul><ul><li>Preparatory committee prepares ground for dialogue in July 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Regional mediation offers international recognition and improves neutrality </li></ul>Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR 06/03/09 Timeline of peace agreements A truly inclusive political dialogue <ul><li>February 2007: c entre-north Front démocratique pour le peuple centrafricain (FDPC) </li></ul><ul><li>April 2007: north-east Union des Forces Démocratiques pour le Rassemblement (UFDR) </li></ul><ul><li>May 2008: north-west Armée Populaire pour la Restauration de la République et la Démocratie (APRD) </li></ul><ul><li>June 2008: global agreement expected </li></ul>
    19. 19. Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Photo Align with top grey line and bottom black bar Security sector reform: governance; stability; safety
    20. 20. Security and development for a resilient state <ul><li>Forces arm ées centrafricaines (FACA) , the national army; roughly 5,000 soldiers (at least 10% over retirement age) </li></ul><ul><li>Impunity of armed forces has been a powerful factor for internal displacement </li></ul><ul><li>Police force has lost 60% of its staff since 1981; roughly 1,350 officers active </li></ul><ul><li>Only 1 magistrate per 40,000 Central Africans; vast majority in the capital </li></ul><ul><li>Customs Service has only 396 staff </li></ul><ul><li>None of the services have the required equipment or training </li></ul><ul><li>Salary arrears impede performance </li></ul>Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR 06/03/09 Dire state of security services in CAR Security sector reform (SSR) elements Police and Paramilitary forces Army and Gendarmerie Customs Justice system Public Finances Good Governance SSR
    21. 21. Progress on Security Sector Reform <ul><li>Decision to transform security and justice providers into legitimate and effective institutions under democratic control </li></ul><ul><li>Government demonstrates strong political will , working openly and closely with partners, facilitated by UNDP </li></ul><ul><li>Landmark SSR seminar held in April 2008, kick-starting process and outlining concrete actions for next two years. </li></ul>Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR 06/03/09 A gateway to stability Need for action <ul><li>Failure would signal to armed forces to continue to act with impunity </li></ul><ul><li>Reform is critical for protecting territory, resources and population in volatile region </li></ul><ul><li>Failure could discredit and isolate the government from international support </li></ul><ul><li>Follow-up and continued donor engagement is key after April seminar </li></ul>
    22. 22. Aid effectiveness: getting back on track to reduce poverty Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR
    23. 23. Aid effectiveness: getting back on track to reduce poverty <ul><li>Ownership Government now stepping forward to lead aid coordination </li></ul><ul><li>Alignment Transitioning from donor to national development priorities </li></ul><ul><li>Harmonisation Integrating humanitarian and development coordination </li></ul><ul><li>Managing for results Strengthening national monitoring and evaluation capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Mutual accountability Implementing aid management system </li></ul>Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR 06/03/09 Key steps towards aid effectiveness Paris Declaration Principles in CAR <ul><li>Sept 2007: Paris Declaration CAR government commits to aid effectiveness principles </li></ul><ul><li>Sept 2007: HIPC decision point CAR becomes eligible for debt relief, HIPC triggers focus on accountability </li></ul><ul><li>Oct 2007: Poverty Reduction Strategy CAR government presents national priorities to international community </li></ul>
    24. 24. Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) <ul><li>Landmark document published in 2007 after wide public engagement </li></ul><ul><li>Estimated costs at $3.5 billion for period 2008-2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Donor Round Table raised significant expectations among the population </li></ul>Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Slide Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR 06/03/09 An inclusive strategy for development High stakes for government and donors <ul><li>Serious government efforts need to be matched by stronger donor engagement </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of action on the PRSP could contribute to popular disillusionment and renewed tensions </li></ul><ul><li>Linking humanitarian and development aid critical to avoid recovery gap </li></ul>
    25. 25. The aid gap is growing: Why is that and what can you do? Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Source: OECD (2007), Development Assistance Disbursements (constant USD), All donors 1985 1990 2000 2005 Development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 87% since 1985, but fell by 49% for CAR 1995 100 -20% +40% +60% -80% ODA Growth, Base = 100 (1985) -60% -40% +20% +80% +100% CAR Sub-Saharan Africa
    26. 26. Because of political instability? Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR CAR scores -1.69 on the World Bank’s political instability index Rwanda Angola Central African Republic Chad South Africa Nigeria Sudan -2.5 Congo, Dem. Republic of Somalia 0 -1.0 1.0 2.5 Uganda Cote d’Ivoire Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection
    27. 27. Because of a lack of strategic natural resources? Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR Bangui Chad Sudan Darfur DRC Congo Cameroon Timber Diamonds Uranium Gold
    28. 28. Because of corruption? Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s corruption control index Rwanda Ethiopia Central African Republic Sudan South Africa Angola Nigeria -2.5 Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection Congo, Dem. Republic of Somalia 0 -1.0 1.0 2.5 Uganda Chad
    29. 29. Because of an overly repressive regime? Slide 06/03/09 Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team CAR CAR scores -1.06 on the World Bank’s voice and accountability index Uganda Central African Republic Rwanda Nigeria South Africa Chad Congo, Dem. Republic of -2.5 Sudan Somalia 0 -1.0 1.0 2.5 Ethiopia Zimbabwe Source: World Bank (2007), Worldwide Governance Indicators, Selection

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