1. Resource security in F&A
A quick scan of major
VNO NCW
Clara van der Elst
Rabobank F&A Research
13 December 2013

2. SWOT of the Dutch F&A sector
Strengths
Weaknesses
•High efficiency in genetics, feed conversion, by-
•High dependence on imported grains & oilseeds,
product usage
particularly soy
•High technology & innovation standards, synergies
•Small scale animal protein & dairy farming
with local chemical, pharmaceutical, biotech industry
•Horticultural sector dependent on exemptions for
•Efficient logistical & export capabilities
energy tax & carbon emission schemes
•Efficient & sizable food processing industry
•Primary growth potential limited through land
scarcity, environmental constraints
Opportunities
Threats
•Rising demand for environmentally friendly & local
•Increased volatility of agri-commodity prices
organic or sustainable food products
•Increased focus on food safety, animal welfare and
•Increased focus on food safety, animal welfare and
food security
food security
•High gas prices
•Increased cooperation via more integrated supply
•EU agriculture trade restrictions: competition from
chains
more efficient food production to increase
•Increasing scarcity in protein
13-12-13 Resources 2014: Safety of supply Dutch economy
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3. Dutch F&A Resource security – zooming in on a threat
No soy production in EU – only rapeseed & sunflower
Soy essential animal feed component
18000
Majority of EU protein imported
16000
14000
12000
33%
10000
67%
8000
6000
4000
2000
Sunflower/ rapeseed protein
content
EU Protein
consumption
EU Protein
production
0
Soy protein content
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
13-12-13 Resources 2014: Safety of supply Dutch economy
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4. Global protein scarcity to remain
Drivers behind protein demand
Soy roughly 170% price increase since 2000, corn 100%
700
600
Not outweighed by other factors
500
400
300
Currently investigated:
200
•Lupine as a soy alternative, yields will have to double
from now (source: Kiemkracht 2013)
100
0
Wheat (US)
Soybeans (US)
13-12-13 Resources 2014: Safety of supply Dutch economy
Corn (US)
Linear (Soybeans (US))
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5. Zooming in on an opportunity – niche in sustainable farming
• Sustainably labelled food growing fast in the
Netherlands, more than doubling from 2009, although
still representing only 5% of total
CAGR of sustainable farming 30% 2009-2012, other food flat
Billions
Niche opportunity
40
2.5
38
36
•Other food stable or declining
•High quality, low agro-chemical usage, small scale
farming fits well with NL constraints
2
34
32
1.5
30
28
1
26
24
0.5
22
20
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sustainable food consumption (RHS)
Other food consumption
13-12-13 Resources 2014: Safety of supply Dutch economy
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6. Contact details F & A Supply chains
Rabobank International
Food & Agribusiness
Research and Advisory
Office address
Rabobank International
Rabobank International
Rabobank International
Justin Sherrard
Global Strategist, Food & Agribusiness
Research and Advisory
Clara van der Elst
Senior Analyst, Food & Agribusiness
Research and Advisory
Paul Bosch
Associate, Food & Agribusiness
Research and Advisory
Telephone +31 30 71 23182
E-mail Justin.Sherrard@rabobank.com
Telephone +31 30 71 24507
E-mail Clara.van.der.Elst@rabobank.com
Telephone +31 30 71 24439
E-mail Paul.Bosch@rabobank.com
Croeselaan 18
3521 CB Utrecht (UCR311)
Postal address
P.O. Box 17100
3500 HG Utrecht
The Netherlands
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