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Rania El Masri_Impact of Climate Change on Urban Livelihoods: Water
 

Rania El Masri_Impact of Climate Change on Urban Livelihoods: Water

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Rania El Masri's presentation at the Second Regional Summer School in Amman, October 2012.

Rania El Masri's presentation at the Second Regional Summer School in Amman, October 2012.

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    Rania El Masri_Impact of Climate Change on Urban Livelihoods: Water Rania El Masri_Impact of Climate Change on Urban Livelihoods: Water Presentation Transcript

    • IMPACT OF CLIMATECHANGE ON URBANLIVELIHOODS: WATERRania el Masri, Ph.D.Environment and Energy Policy SpecialistUNDP, Regional Center in CairoAmman, October 3, 2012http://greenresistance.wordpress.comTwitter: rania_masrifacebook.com/rania.masri
    • 2STATE OF OUR WATERCOMMONS:WHERE ARE WE NOW?Litani, Lebanon
    • 3 Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007 (m3/capita/yr) Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Mauritania Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia UAE Yemen1200010000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
    • 4 Total renewable water resources per capita (2008) (m3/capita/yr)400035003000250020001500 Water scarcity level (< 1000)1000 Water Crisis level (< 500) 500 Absolute water scarcity level (< 165) 0
    • 5 Projections: Total renewable water resources per capita (2008 and 2016) (m3/capita/yr)4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,500 Water scarcity level (< 1000) Water Crisis level (< 500)1,000 Absolute water scarcity level (< 165) 500 0
    • 620000 Freshwater availability: 1955-202518000 (m3/capita/yr)16000140001200010000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1955 1990 2000 2025
    • 7 Available Renewable Water Resources per capita, 1950 -45004000350030002500200015001000 500 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
    • 8 Population Percent change, 1961-20072,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0
    • 9Although fertility rates in the Arab world are declining… Total fertility in the Arab world: 1970 - 2010
    • 10 Population growth (millions): 1970 - 2025100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 2001 2025
    • 11 population growth: 1950-2050Arab region: among the fastest population growth rates (> 2%/year)• GCC population: to double by 2040• Maghreb population: to double by 2060
    • 12Urbanization rates in the Arab world Annual regional urban population growth: 2- 6%
    • 13Source: UN Habitat 2008
    • 14Threats to our water commons • Decreasing supply • Aquifers and groundwater heavily mined (Yemen) • Increasing demand (decreasing supply per capita) • Population growth • Increasing urbanization, Increasing economic and social demands
    • 15Increasing exclusive developments …
    • 16… extravagant water use
    • 18Who gets water?
    • 19Algeria’s Boughzoul…
    • 20The political economy of waterThe scarcity of water, like any resource scarcity, imposes the inevitable questions:• Who gets how much?• At what cost?• And at what price, if any?But there are deeper questions that also need to be addressed:• Who decides?• By what procedures?• What features of governance will most likely produce management decisions that are fair, effective, and environmentally sustainable?
    • 21STATE OF OUR WATER COMMONS:IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Annual Mean Changes in Hydrometeorological Variables for the 22Period 2080–2099 Relative to 1980–1999 – using a middle-pathemissions scenario (A1B)
    • 23Impact of climate change on water availabilit y in Middle East and NorthAfrica in 2050Source: Milly et al., published in Nature.
    • 24HOW CAN CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACT LIVES IN CITIES?HOW HAS IT ALREADY?
    • 25Urban flooding* ~ 75 % of built structures are at risk of sea-level rise,storm surges, and heat impacts.• Urbanization increases vulnerability to floods • (i) coastal flooding, • (ii) major rivers, • (iii) small streams, and • (iv) inadequate drainage
    • 26Areas in Alexandria vulnerable due toexposure and poor housing (in red and purple)
    • 27Estimated % increase in storm surge zone
    • 28Flooding in Jeddah, (inadequatedrainage) January 2009
    • 29Urban heat islands
    • 30Rise in Cairo temperature due to urbangrowth (1984 and 2002)
    • 31Urban expansion in Beirut: 1984 and 2006
    • 32
    • 33From farming to urban poverty?
    • 34(direct) Climate change impacts in urbanareas• Increased temperature • Increased precipitation • Heat waves • Flooding • Fires • Mudslides • Epidemics• Decreased precipitation • Sea Level Rise • Drought • Storm surges • Fires • Flooding
    • 35High per capita water consumption –forsome
    • 36OUR WATER CRISIS:POLITICAL ECONOMY OFWATER
    • 37 Impact of water crisis: who gets water?7060 Population without50 access to improved40 water sources (2010)302010 0 100 90Internal differences in 80 70access to improved 60water sources (2010) 50 40 30 20 10 0 Djibouti Iraq Morocco Oman Somalia Sudan Yemen Rural Urban
    • 3880 Impact of water crisis: whose water is clean?7060 Population50 without access to40 improved30 sanitation20 facilities (2010)10 0 Libya Tunisia Lebanon UAE Morocco Qatar Iraq Somalia Sudan Comoros Oman Kuwait Djibouti Mauritania Algeria Syria Yemen OPT Egypt Jordan 100 90 80 Internal differences in 70 60 access to improved 50 sanitation facilities 40 (2010) 30 20 10 0 Rural Urban
    • 39 (Potential) impacts of Decreased Supply and Increased Demand on Water• Direct impacts • … increased cost • … decreased quality (eg: increased salinization)• Indirect impacts • … increased poverty • … increased health risks • …risk to livelihoods in agricultural sector• Decreased ecosystem health … and all the impacts
    • 40Theft of Palestinian Water
    • 41
    • 42A TOOL TO STUDY THEIMPACTS ON LIVELIHOOD…
    • The SustainableLivelihoodFramework Livelihood Outcomes + Sustainable use of Livelihood Capital NR base Assets + Income + Well-being - Vulnerability Human + Food security Policies & Institutions (Transforming Natural Structures & Processes) Social Structures - Government - Private Sector Processes - Laws Livelihood - Policies Strategies Physical Financial - Culture - Institutions Vulnerability Context Shocks Trends Seasons
    • 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley Focussing on the poor The Poor
    • 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. TownsleyLivelihood Assets Personal Social Human The Poor Financial Physical Natural
    • 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley Unpacking Policies and Institutions Enabling Service agencies providers Personal Social Human The Poor Financial Physical Natural
    • 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley Unpacking “Processes” Enabling Service agencies providers Personal Social Human The Poor Financial Physical Natural
    • 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. TownsleyAn Envelope of Action Enabling Service agencies providers Personal Social Human The Poor Financial Physical Natural
    • 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. TownsleyWeak Envelope – People More Vulnerable Enabling Service agencies providers Personal Social The Human Poor Financial Physical Natural
    • Strong Envelope – People Less Vunerable 17/06/2004 IFAD SL Framework - J. Hamilton-Peach & P. Townsley Enabling Service agencies providers Personal Social Human The Poor Financial Physical Natural
    • 51WHAT TO DO?(HOW TO GET FROM CRISISTO SUSTAINABLE?)
    • 52 DRIVERS HUMAN SOCIETY Population growth Increased consumptionPRESSURES IMPACTSIncreased resourceexploitation Human well-being: RESPONSESClimate change Mitigation and adaptation Economic, Ecosystem social servicesAgricultural goods &mismanagement services Farmer liveilhoods State: water security crisis Decreasing supply Decreasing quality ENVIRONMENT
    • 53
    • 54
    • 55
    • 56Current Responses• Desalination • GCC: more than 50% of domestic water use consumption comes from desalination • Energy usage: drinking oil? • Some reports indicate by 2050, GCC would spend 50% of their fuel on desalination • By 2038, KSA may not be able to export oil… • Negative Impact on marine life• Privatization • UAE, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco: Public-Private Partnership • Bottled water consumption (UAE and Lebanon: highest growth in bottled water consumption in the world)• Reuse of drainage water • Practiced on a large scale in Egypt • (only) up to 10% of total water resources are from reused from agricultural drainage water • More limited scale in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
    • 57Additional necessary responses• Reduce consumption (from repairing infrastructure to family planning)• Develop a water commons • Participatory stewardship• Develop fair pricing – not ‘full cost recovery’ as was in Rio • Reduce vulnerabilities of poor • Charge higher volume users more per unit• Plan for all water resources in a comprehensive package • Why do we assign water quality to a Health Ministry, drinking water to an urban utility, and irrigation to an Agricultural Ministry, and no one responsible for watershed health?• Develop sequential water use• Implement wise agricultural management (from halting the export of virtual water to comprehensive support for small-holder farmers) • Stop export of water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice • Support farmers to have the financial means to implement water efficient irrigationEnsure water as a human right and not a human needAnd of course: work seriously to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions locally and internationally: make mitigating climate change a priority
    • 58FUNDAMENTALLY …A new economyA new personal and societal frameworkAnd a vision of something positive
    • 59 Links for additional info My contact information• Climate change • rania.z.masri@gmail.com knowledge portal - • Twitter: rania_masri http://sdwebx.worldbank.o rg/climateportal/index.cfm• Climate connections• http://climate- connections.org/