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Dfm foods   hbj capital Dfm foods hbj capital Presentation Transcript

  • DFM Foods Ltd - An Attractive Bet on Increasing Snacks Consumption
  • Content Index • DFM Foods – Investment Snapshot :- Slide #3 • Industry Opportunity – An Overview:- Slide #5 • DFM Foods – Business Overview :- Slide #10 • Investment Rationale :- Slide #17 • DFM Foods – Financials:- Slide #24 • Concerns & Reasoning :- Slide #26 • Conclusion :- Slide #29 “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • DFM Foods Ltd – Investment Snapshot (as on July 30, 2012) Recommendation :- BUY Accumulation Range :- 180-220 • Invest 30% of Investment allocation at the current Price. • Have enough Cash to average down over the next 6 Months Time-frame. Current Market Price – Rs. 216 Bloomberg / Reuters Code – DFMF IN/ DFMF.BO BSE / NSE Code – 519588 / DFMFOO Mkt Cap (INR BN / USD Mn) – 2.28 / 41.01 [1 USD – Rs. 55.60] Total Equity Shares [Mn]– 10 Face Value – Rs. 10 52 Week High / Low – Rs. 295 / Rs. 132 Promoter’s Holding – 69.02 % Institutional Holding – 0.01 % The Delhi Flour Mills Co ltd (DFM Foods) has been in the business of Extrusion Snack Manufacturing, Wheat Storage and Trading for the past several years. Management had taken a conscious decision in 2009 to stop its Wheat business which was a drag on its Bottomline and focus on the High growth Snacks business. DFM Foods had launched its Crax brand on Corn Rings, as early as 1984 and is a pioneer in the Snacks food industry in the country. Crax is one of the Oldest Food brands in the country with sales much below is potential. DFM Foods is promoted by Mr. Mohit Jain and is well supported by his two sons Mr. Rohan Jain & Mr. Rashad Jain. Management is well experienced with strong Industry knowledge built over the years. Stock Markets has taken note of the Company’s strong performance over the past 3 years. Its share prices has appreciated by over 4X in the past two years of troubled Market conditions. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Key Investment Highlights Huge Growth Opportunities – Indian Snacks Industry is going through a High-Growth phase and it is just at the starting of a Multi-Decade growth story. Presently India’s Per Capital consumption of Snacks is lower than even some of our Peer countries which highlights the demand potential. More importantly, Market Share has slowly started shifting from Un-Organized segment to the Branded Manufacturers. A Niche Brand – DFM Foods with its Crax brand of Corn Rings is being positioned in the Market as a Niche Brand with leadership position in the Roasted Corn Snacks segment. Moreover, Crax caters to only Children in the age group of 6-14 Years which helps it to position differently from the Industry biggies like PepsiCo, ITC, Haldirams etc. All the operations of DFM Foods are aligned towards strengthening this Niche Brand. Strong Working Capital Management – The best Highlight for the Investor in DFM Foods is its Negative Working Capital requirements which clearly shows the Huge Demand and Brand trust its products command in the market. This highly efficient working capital management helps to reduce the earnings volatility because of Shorter production cycles, Lower Inventories and Negative Debt. Young and Dynamic Management – DFM Foods has transformed itself from a Low-Value business to a Focused Snacks player over the past 4 years. This is majorly attributed to the induction of, Wharton educated Promoter’s Son – Mr. Rohan Jain. He understands the potential of the Branded Snacks industry and also strengths of his company well. He is intently focused on building a strong customer brand and is keen to take the company to greater heights. Decent Valuations – DFM Foods at the current valuations might not look attractive, but its quoting at decent valuations considering its future growth. DFM is currently quoting at less than 15X its FY-14 Earnings estimates which is attractive considering its ROE’s of >35% and ROCE’s of >30%. We expect the company to maintain its Growth and deliver strong earnings over the next few years. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Industry Opportunity & Potential - An Overview “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Global Snacks Industry • There has been a Structural increase in Snacks consumption across the Globe. There has been a social change in eating Snacks and its consumption% relative to consumption of regular meals has gone higher. • Snacks have been termed by Health advocates as “Junk Food”, but still people’s appetite for these snacks has only been increasing for several years now. • Increasing consumption is especially high in the under-18 Age category which has taken up to Snacks in a big way. This can also be seen from the growth of Global Snacks brands across geographies. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Huge Opportunities Per Capita Consumption of Snacks in Kg’s • India’s Per Capital consumption of Snacks is a meager 0.5 Kg’s compared with the high consumption levels across the globe. This difference is more of an affordability issue than any social difference amongst these countries. Its generally seen that the consumption levels increase with higher discretionary income among the people in Emerging economies. • This can be validated from the fact that India’s Urban consumption stands at around 7X (>0.8 Kg’s) its rural consumption and this mix has been changing over the past few years with the Increasing prosperity of India’s rural consumers. They now nearly contribute more than 35% of the overall snacks market. • In monetary terms, Indians spend only 3$’s on an average in Snack foods. This pales in comparison with the 65 Billion $ snack industry in USA. With a huge population which is Young and has a consumerist mindset, the potential for the growth of this Industry in India is Huge. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Indian Snack Food Industry Company Brands Major Product Frito-Lay ( Parent Company : Pepsi ) Lays, Lehar, Kurkure Potato Chips ITC Bingo Extrusion Snacks Haldirams Haldirams Namkeen Prakash Snacks Yellow Diamond Potato Chips Balaji Wafers Balaji Namkeen SM Dye Chem Peppy Cheese Balls Fun Flips Flippo Peanuts, Namkeens • Indian Snacks market is rich with several Strong National and Regional brands which cater to a wide variety of taste buds offering products across various price points. • PepsiCo in line with its Global strategy is clearly the most aggressive players in the Indian market. Its “Lays” brand of chips, “Kurkure” brand of Namkeens and “Lehar” range of snacks have a clear positioning. • PepsiCo’s strongest focus and growth is from its “Lehar” brand which caters to the customers at the bottom of the Pyramid with an affordable price. This segment is expected to continue its Fast growth. • Several Regional players like Balaji and Prakash snacks have set-up bigger manufacturing facilities and are on course for a strong growth over the next 3 years. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Major Indian Brands “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • DFM Foods – Business Overview “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Key Highlights Pure-Play Snacks Company Efficient Capital Allocation DFM Foods has a very strong Balance Sheet. Its Debt: Equity ratio is very comfortable and with good cash flows, company can plan its next CAPEX with Internal Accruals. DFM Foods which was into low-value businesses like Wheat Storage, Trading etc has stopped these activities and is currently a Pure-Play Snacks company. It’s the only listed company in this Snacks Industry which will attract Investors. Company efficient Capital allocation can be seen from its tight Working Capital cycle. Growth Opportunities DFM Foods is expected to grow strongly at over 35% over the next 2-3 years which will result in the business reaching substantial scale. More Importantly, unlike other Growing segments – We expect DFM to maintain its Margins and its high Return Ratios. DFM Foods Capacity Expansion DFM Foods has recently expanded its Capacity by more than 2.5X, from 600 Kg/ Hr to around 1600 Kg/ Hr which will take care of its supply requirements for the next couple of years. Leveraging CRAX DFM Foods with its popular Crax brand is hugely underleveraged in terms of Distribution Network. Company has now started entering several new geographies and is increasing its Retail presence. DFM’s future growth will mainly come from its entry into new Geographies and a growing Sales Network. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • DFM Foods - Products Corn Rings Namkeens Natkhat • DFM Foods has 3-Primary products (Corn Rings, Namkeens and Natkhat). Out of these products, Corn Rings is its Flagship product and contributes more than 80% of its overall revenues and 90% of its overall profits. • Its flagship – Corn Rings and Namkeens are sold at a Price point of 5Rs/- and 10Rs/-. Its Natkhat is being sold at a price point of 2Rs/- which makes all its products affordable to customers across the Bottom of the Pyramid. Also these lower points expand the Target customer base significantly. • Crax is basically an extrusion Snack and the company has continued to create new flavors to engage its customers. One of its “Pudina flavor” which was launched recently has gained significant Market traction and company aims to delight its customers with tasty flavors regularly. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • A Niche Brand Crax – Product Differentiation Target : 6-12 Age Kids • Corn Rings is a relatively untouched segment by the bigger brands and hence DFM Foods is the leader in this Niche segment. • DFM Foods has also tried to position Crax Corn Rings as a snack for Kids in the Age bracket of 6-14 and hence has concentrated all its activities based on that. • For example, all its Advertisement is purely on Cartoon Network, Pogo and other Kids related medium and also its Sales points is skewed towards reaching the Kids. • This has helped it to differentiate in a Crowded Snacks market. Also in terms of Products, Crax attracts Kids considering its Flavors, Structure (Rings in their Fingers) etc. • Company’s major promotions is based on the attractive Gifts which it packs with the Product. This is the major Promotional expense and with this, DFM’s total Marketing costs include 9% of these gifts and 3% of advertisement costs. • DFM continues to focus on its Corn Rings and even the recent Capacity expansion is on this product line. Considering its leadership status and relatively lower competition, DFM foods would continue to do strongly in this segment. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Strong Growth • DFM Foods in spite of being a pioneer in the Snacks category, never really focused on this business. Management had completely stopped Marketing and Advertising the brand from the late 1990’s to the early -2000’s. But even with the explosion of Brands like Lays, Kurkure etc – Crax was able to do decent business without any investments. • This show of Brand strength finally resulted in the Managements focus to build this business and from 2005 onwards, DFM has been investing in the Brand through promotional activities across Kids Television. • DFM Foods has grown strongly and its Major Product “Crax” Corn Rings has continued to expand its market over the past few years. This product has the highest Gross Margins amongst its 3-Products and hence any growth in this would be of healthy Margins leading to better PAT numbers. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Geographical Expansion • There are over 5-Million distribution points for Snack Products across India. • DFM Foods has just scratched the surface in terms of its distribution reach. Total Retail Points :- Aprox-1,35,000 Existing Geographical Presence :- North India (2/3rd), Western India (Mainly Mumbai & Pune – 1/3rd) Future Expansion :- Complete Western India (Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh) & Eastern India (Bihar, Bengal) Strong Markets :- Delhi, UP, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan • With expanded capacities, DFM has been increasing its presence in New Geographies. • These new geographies continue to work on the same sales model as its Strong Northern Markets. • DFM Foods has been an under-leveraged brand. While all its Marketing has been on National Platforms like Cartoon Network and Pogo, its retail presence was only in North India. Hence, company Investments in its Brand was not fully exploited. • This can be seen from the response Crax has got from New Markets in Mumbai and Pune. Actually the per store sales in these locations has been 20% higher than its traditional strongholds. The product has been lapped up well and has captured the Mind share of Kids in these regions quickly. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Efficient Working Capital Management • DFM Foods has been working on a Negative Working Capital cycle with Strong Advances from its customers which shows the brand strength and the demand for its products. Even in terms of its Debtor and Creditor days, DFM has been managing it well. • This efficient Working Capital management might get a little hit in the Newer markets because of increased transport time leading to Higher Inventory, but the core Sales cycle will continue to be strong. This negative Working Capital cycle puts zero pressure on Growth and hence DFM Foods can continue to grow at very high rates, if its get its Supply right. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Investment Rationale “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Strong Capacity Expansion Previous Processing Details Old Processing Capacity :- 600 Kg/ Hr • DFM Foods has expanded its Manufacturing Capacity in Greater Noida, UP which is catering to all its markets. Revenue Potential from its earlier Capacity :- 150 Cr Rs • This expansion is a Greenfield capacity FY-12’s Capacity Utilization :- >100% Expanded Processing Details and the company has enough headroom to create additional Brownfield capacity, if there is a need. This Brownfield expansion will certainly improve Return ratios. New Processing Capacity :- 1600 Kg/ Hr • Company expects strong demand to fill these capacities fast enough and is aiming New Revenue Potential :- 325 Cr Rs to reach 100% utilization in 2-years. Management says that, demand was never Projected Capacity Utilization :- New Plant is expected a problem and it is the supply which was a constraint previously. to reach 100% Capacity Utilization around FY-14 • Transportation Cost is a major % of expenses for a Snack Manufacturer. Hence, when the sales of Western Region becomes large enough – DFM Foods would be scouting to set up a new manufacturing location in Maharashtra to cater to these Geographies. • Our Conversation with the Management revealed that the Company has gone for a deduction of 10% Volumes in its SKU’s which is nearly equal to a 10% Price hike in July, 2012, to maintain its margins in light of its higher transportation and Raw Material costs. This Price hike shows the Brand's pricing power and Management’s Rationality in pursuing growth. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Past 5-Year Performance • Since the focus shifted to transforming DFM to a Pure Snacks company, it has shown strong Performance in all its Financial Parameters. • Company has a very strong balance sheet with a comfortable leverage for its latest Capacity expansion. It has strong Cash flows to service Long term debt. • DFM Foods has been continuously paying healthy Dividends for the past 5 Years. • Depreciation and Interest Costs are expected to increase in FY-13 because of the Capitalization of the new Manufacturing facility. • With little Cash drain, we expect the company to re-invest a Portion of its Cash flow for setting up new manufacturing facilities and return good dividends in the future. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Healthy Margin Expansion • DFM’s growth has been Margin accretive, with its Operating Profit Margin almost doubling in the past 5Years which is even more appreciate able considering the tough environment. • Company PAT Margins have expanded even better, but the base was very low. Company’s earnings have clearly outperformed its Cost growth due to better efficiencies. • DFM’s every other Financial ratios like Current Ratio, Gross Margin, Interest Cover Ratio etc looks attractive for any Long term Investor. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Decent Valuations • DFM Foods has little growth constraints in terms of demand. With an expanded capacity and increasing distribution, it would be able to grow its earnings at a healthy pace going forward. • DFM Foods business model with a High Asset Turnover, Negative Working Capital and Healthy Margins will help it to continue posting very strong Return Ratios. • The turnaround in business operations is best established in the Earnings Per Share which has grown from about 0.78 Rs to over 10 Rs in just about 5 Years. We expect the company to continue posting strong EPS. • On Classic Financial terms, DFM Foods might look over valued. But with all the above positive factors, we believe that DFM Foods trades at a decent Valuation with potential upsides from Earnings. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Recent Deal Flow • Sequoia Capital India has invested $30 million ( Rs.145 Cr Rs) in Indore-based Prakash Snacks Pvt Ltd for an undisclosed minority stake (speculated to be in the region of 30%) in June 2011. • Prakash Snacks had sales of 154 Cr Rs in 2010-11. Comparing with a much Stronger “Crax Brand” with revenues of around 170 Cr Rs, quoting at around 220 Cr Rs which shows the Valuation Potential in the Stock. • Rajkot-based Balaji Wafers (owned by local entrepreneur Chandubhai Virani and his family) has an estimated turnover of Rs 450 crore. It was keenly sought after by Frito-Lay at an aggressive Valuation. • Balaji was willing to dilute only a minority 30% stake to Frito-Lay, but they were keen to acquire 51%-plus share. So, after several round of negotiations lasting for close to two years, the talks broke down a year back. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Operational Levers With Margins compressing over the past 2 Quarters, we have reasons to believe that the Management will be able to meet its Margin Guidance of about 13% on its EBIDTA numbers and around 6-6.5% on its PAT numbers, over the course of the next 3-4 Quarters. This is because of its Operational levers like, • Power Consumption :Due to the Huge power shortages in Uttar Pradesh where DFM’s manufacturing plant is located, it’s Power costs has been high. The plant has been virtually running out of Diesel Generators and the cost per unit of Power has been at 10 Rs. This is very high compared with Grid power and hence with power situation expected to improve over the next 2-years, we expect savings in Expenses to boost Margins. • Defending Gross Margins :DFM Foods had not taken any price increase over the past 4-years, despite the Huge increasing the several commodity prices. But the company was still able to maintain its margins, because of better Operational efficiencies. DFM Foods as mentioned earlier has taken a Price increase, through decreased volumes which will help it to maintain its margins. Past performance gives us confidence on its ability to defend its Margins, even in a challenging environment. • Efficient and Modern Processing Plant :DFM’s huge capacity expansion in one location will provide it with economies of scale in terms of manufacturing, procurement capabilities etc. Also this manufacturing is a new modern plant which will bring in several operational efficiencies in terms of lower overheads and Expenses and is an important lever for the management to maintain margins. • Level Playing Field :With the GST expected to be implemented over the next 1-2 Years, It would help these branded players to compete with the unorganized sector on a level playing field because of tax uniformity. This will definitely provide a fillip to the company’s earnings. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Financials “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Earnings Projection Income Statement (INR Cr) FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E Sales 120 170 220 295 Raw Material Cost 76 110 145 190 Power & Fuel Cost 2.4 3.5 4.5 8.5 Employee Cost 6.3 9.41 11.5 14 Selling Expenses 14.6 20.4 25 40 Miscellaneous Expenses 3.6 5 6 6.5 EBIDTA 16.27 22.77 28 36 Interest 2.17 4.47 7.5 8.5 Depreciation 1.4 2.3 3.5 4.5 Profit Before Tax (PBT) 12.71 15.92 17 23 Tax 4.39 5.56 5.69 7.7 Profit After Tax (PAT) 8.34 10.36 11.31 15.3 Earnings Per Share (EPS) 8.34 10.36 11.31 15.3 • We have taken conservative estimates with revenue growth of around 30% over the next two years. • Also the Margin Compression at both the EBIDTA and PAT level is being factored in the future earnings estimates. • Company Tax Rate has been consistently above 33%, which gives us confidence about the company’s accounting practices. • Since all this growth is without any equity dilution, any upsides in margins will lead to higher ROE’s and EPS which lead to a re-rating in the share price. Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Concerns & Reasoning 1.) Small Market Size – Corn Rings : Corn Rings as a category has not been huge enough to attract Bigger Brands. It is still being dominated by Local brands and even Globally, there is no considerable peer in this category. Hence, Scaling up of Crax requires creating a new market which is a strong Challenge. But we feel that Crax is well positioned to capture the transition from Un-organized products to Organized Brands in the Packaged foods space and hence in Corn Rings, Crax will be able to grow its market share and a expanding market is a good topping. 2.) Inflationary Cost Input Pressures : With the Agri Raw material prices increasing constantly across the globe, there will be severe pressure on the Margins of DFM Foods. But we are confident that the Management will be able to manage this, considering its good performance over the past 4-years which is probably one of the most volatile phases in the commodity prices and also it abilityvary its per Unit Volumes to maintain Margins. 3.) Management’s Execution Capability in New Markets : DFM’s biggest growth is expected to come from new markets where it does not have a Big Mind share of the customer or a well established Distribution network. Hence there is an execution Risk involved based on Managements plans. This is mitigated to an extent by the acceptance and growth of Crax in Mumbai & Pune which is a new market and more importantly without any changes in the WC or distribution expenses. 4.) Valuations not Cheap : The biggest Risk in DFM Foods is the valuations. They are certainly not cheap when compared with the broader markets and peer small cap companies. Also, growth mix can reduce the margins by a few % points. Hence there is a downside risk associated which will be mitigated only with Strong Profit growth. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Conclusion “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Price Chart Share Holding % Mar 2012 Dec 2011 Sep 2011 June 2011 Promoters 69.02 69.02 69.02 69.02 FII 0 0 0 0 DII 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 • DFM Foods has seen its share price rising well in spite of Broader Stock Market correction. Market has actually recognized the Company’s business shift from Low-value business to the High Potential Brand business. • Institutional Investors don’t have any interest in this Small-Cap stock and if the company does well, their entry will be a huge Trigger for the Stock. • Company has recently started giving Conference Calls to Analysts and Investors, which helps Market Participants to have better view on its Business operations. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • Conclusion Its common sense to understand that, Consumption of snacks in India is expected to grow at healthy rates for the next many years. But this market has been targeted by several Large National and Small Regional Brands. There is also competition from the Unorganized market and even in the Snacks category, there are various products which show different growth rates. Hence its difficult to grow profitably in such a scenario where Companies don’t have Pricing power. We expect that 5-Years down the line, Companies which flourish will have either a portfolio of Strong Brands across categories (or) A very strong Positioning in a Niche Sub-Category of the overall snacks market which helps them to grow without any Margin Dilution. The only Pure-play listed Stock in this attractive Snacks Industry is DFM Foods. Company’s new found focus and energy has helped it to create a significant Growth traction in the market over the past 4 years. Its Crax Brand being a niche play will help it to Grow, Protect its Margins and Improve its Return on Investments going forward. DFM Foods capacity expansion which has been capitalized will help it to grow at high growth rates for the next 2-3 years. DFM’s financials gives us the biggest confidence in recommending the stock. Company has continued to show prudent Financial Management on both its Working Capital front and also on it Balance Sheet. We believe that the company is strengthening all dimensions of its business like Sales, Marketing, Distribution, Brand Building, Product Improvisations etc to take the company to a Higher Orbit. DFM Foods currently quotes at around 20X its earnings which is not cheap. But considering its Growth potential, High ROE’s etc – we feel that the Stock will continue with this High earnings Multiple. Hence, all our bet in this case is on the Future Earnings growth and hence this stock is a risky bet. Contrary to our Alpha Investing stocks (Higher Risk Adjusted Returns), DFM foods is a High Risk- High Return stock. So, Invest slowly in the stock over a period of time opportunistically (During the next 2 Quarters) and don’t expose more than 5% of your Portfolio. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • THANK YOU “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “